ConcordeBoy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 2554 times:
Seeing as the looking up the whole frequencies bid isn't really my thing....
I'm curious as to whether anyone can list out how, using what we know now, the HI-to-USA mainland landscape will look, considering all of the changes (AQ and NW gone) made.
DL767captain From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 2539 posts, RR: 0 Reply 1, posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 2467 times:
HA seems like they really have a chance to grow now. DL/NW will work very hard i'm sure to become a popular Hawaiian carrier. The fact that their merged fleet will allow them to operate the best aircraft on each route to give them the best operating economics makes them very lucky. HA will do fairly well but i feel like they need a little something inside the planes, maybe IFE or something along the lines of what virgin america has.
CV880 From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 995 posts, RR: 2 Reply 2, posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 2246 times:
I see a big DL/NW 744 arriving from ATL enroute to SYD, picking up connecting feed at HNL from cities like MSP/SEA/PDX/SFO/LAX and perhaps additional feed from JFK/DTW. As HNL is about half way between the two points and could serve as a connector for flights from other mainland cities, it could well be a viable one-stop alternative to the LAX connection.
Roseflyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 8790 posts, RR: 52 Reply 3, posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 2209 times:
For now UA is king to Hawaii. It's not because of number of destinations, but moreso because they have west coast hubs and 375 passenger capacity 777s. They have the lift to economically operate the route well.
Quoting DL767captain (Reply 1): HA will do fairly well but i feel like they need a little something inside the planes, maybe IFE or something along the lines of what virgin america
has.
Virgin America or any other Live TV product doesn't work over the ocean.
Fancy IFE, while nice, won't really be that important to flights to Hawaii. Many of those planes are filled up by tour operators who don't give passengers choices. I believe it is evident that despite flight length, service levels to Hawaii aren't that important because when you look at first class, only AA and CO have real business class products. The rest of 36-38'' domestic style first class. Hawaii has high base fares, but service levels aren't where people are winning. Friendly service is good, but going through the expense of internet, IFE, TV and all the other gizmos seem unwarranted. I don't think HA would get that many more passengers over the competition if they improved their product.
Quoting CV880 (Reply 2): I see a big DL/NW 744 arriving from ATL enroute to SYD, picking up connecting feed at HNL from cities like MSP/SEA/PDX/SFO/LAX and perhaps additional feed from JFK/DTW. As HNL is about half way between the two points and could serve as a connector for flights
from other mainland cities, it could well be a viable one-stop alternative to the LAX connection.
I don't think that there is much chance of that. The days of HNL and Pacific Islands as connecting points are gone. The O/D is already covered by QF/HA serving SYD. LAX is a shorter connecting point, has large O/D and is served from more destinations than HNL ever could. HNL was a good connecting point when airplanes did not have the range to fly nonstop. Now, it doesn't work. People say they like a midflight break to stretch their legs, but if you look at history, those people are outnumbered in favor of people wanting nonstop international service.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
CV880 From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 995 posts, RR: 2 Reply 4, posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 2151 times:
Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 3): those people are outnumbered in favor of people wanting nonstop international service.
And LAX is about the only other logical alternative, as the other cities don't have the O&D, nor connecting power as the LAX hub. This being said, LAX already has ample service to SYD/AKL/MEL, so what is the alternative for DL? SEA is too far north, SFO, maybe, but not likely, and ATL is out of range. Your reference to "nonstop" service would only apply to LAX, SFO , or SEA in DL's case.
RoseFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 8790 posts, RR: 52 Reply 5, posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 2057 times:
Quoting CV880 (Reply 4): And LAX is about the only other logical alternative, as the other cities don't have the O&D, nor connecting power as the LAX hub. This being said, LAX already has ample service to SYD/AKL/MEL, so what is the alternative for DL? SEA is too far north, SFO, maybe, but not likely, and ATL is out of range. Your reference to "nonstop" service would only apply to LAX, SFO , or SEA in DL's case.
The alternative is not flying to Australia, and that's what is happening now. CO couldn't make it work out of HNL when they drew down the pacific routes. HA has a Hawaii hub which helps, but they are going after O/D. O/D is where profits is at.
I think SYD from NRT is more likely than HNL for DL/NW combo, but that is pretty ludicrous too.
[Edited 2008-11-03 14:36:57]
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
DLPMMM From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 3537 posts, RR: 9 Reply 6, posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 1978 times:
Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 5): think SYD from NRT is more likely than HNL for DL/NW combo, but that is pretty ludicrous too.
Actually, it makes alot of sense now that the open skies agreement with Australia has been signed. It worked well before for NW, but the Australian Government forced them out of the route because there were too many TKO originating pax (in contravention of the bi-lateral service agreements).
RoseFlyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 8790 posts, RR: 52 Reply 7, posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 1737 times:
Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 6): Actually, it makes alot of sense now that the open skies agreement with Australia has been signed. It worked well before for NW, but the Australian Government forced them out of the route because there were too many TKO originating pax (in contravention of the bi-lateral service agreements).
NRT-SYD would be an oddball with little connecting traffic, but it would be an amazing route.
JFK-SYD was operated via Osaka and not Tokyo. Less than 30% of the passengers actually flew from the US to Australia.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
DLPMMM From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 3537 posts, RR: 9 Reply 8, posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 1691 times:
Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 7): JFK-SYD was operated via Osaka and not Tokyo.
That's right, it was Osaka instead of Tokyo, I stand correcte.
The flight made money out of Osaka, and would probably do much better with USA connecting/continuing pax from NRT given the NWA hub there. It is longer than direct from LAX, but considering the feed from ATL/MSP/SEA/JFK(soon)/DTW/PDX plus the NRT-SYD O&D traffic that they can pick up, it makes sense to me for DL/NW to try it.
HNL-Jack From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 799 posts, RR: 0 Reply 9, posted (4 years 7 months 2 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 1566 times:
Quoting ConcordeBoy (Thread starter): I'm guessing UA, HA, and DL will now duke it out for the top3 spot.
Don't see much change. UA to remain #1, HA #2 ,DL #3 & AA #4.. DL/NW gateways will likely remain the same with limited frequency, perhaps a continued trend to 757 aircraft from the West Coast. UA has not changed its Hawaii patterns much in recent years in terms of aircraft or routes and there is no reason to believe that will change in the immediate future. AA is unlikely to change its present levels of service as it really has a minimual committment to the market. HA will remain at 2008 levels of mainland & international service until new A-330's begin to arrive in 2011 & 2012. At that point we could see a more aggressive strategy expanding to interior U.S. major cities as well as international, likely Japan and/or Korea now that the visa restrictions have been lifted.
AS should remain at current levels unless they choose to enter the California - Hawaii market which is unlikely. CO won't expand, particulary with their code shares coming on line with UA. US will probably continue to be a niche player from its PHX hub.
Bottom line...not much change until we see a turn around in the economy.
Grew up in the business and continued the family tradition.
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