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LH Reduces MUC-GRU And MUC-PEK  
User currently offlineHardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 50
Posted (5 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 4181 times:

According to LH online schedule MUC-GRU will be reduced from 5 weekly to 3 weekly (effective 3 November), while MUC-PEK will be reduced from daily to 5 weekly (effective 27 October). MUC-GRU and MUC-PEK are back daily in the Summer schedule.

Rgs,

17 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11365 posts, RR: 59
Reply 1, posted (5 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 3980 times:
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Quoting Hardiwv (Thread starter):
According to LH online schedule MUC-GRU will be reduced from 5 weekly to 3 weekly (effective 3 November), while MUC-PEK will be reduced from daily to 5 weekly (effective 27 October). MUC-GRU and MUC-PEK are back daily in the Summer schedule.

Thanks for the info. Demand from Brazil to Germany isn't strong on Brazilian Summer but seems that current economic situation is playing a role on this decision.
As a side note, LH now code-share with JJ which just upgrade their GRU-FRA flight to a 77W (from A345), so in the end, offer Brazil-Germany will show a small increase over 2007/2008 season levels.

IATA Summer is stronger in results and loads than the winter.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineHardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 50
Reply 2, posted (5 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day ago) and read 3866 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 1):
Thanks for the info. Demand from Brazil to Germany isn't strong on Brazilian Summer but seems that current economic situation is playing a role on this decision.
As a side note, LH now code-share with JJ which just upgrade their GRU-FRA flight to a 77W (from A345), so in the end, offer Brazil-Germany will show a small increase over 2007/2008 season levels.

IATA Summer is stronger in results and loads than the winter.

I agree, Lipe. However, we are not seeing AF, IB or BA decreasing flights to Brazil, arent we? Perhaps LH could try FRA-GIG instead since GRU-Germany market is already extremelly well served. It seems MUC-GRU is now without doubts showing some problems as the route started daily, then got reduced to 6 weekly, then red-eye, then 5 weekly, and now 3 weekly. It does not seem a solid route...sorry...We do not see AF doing that in Brazil.

On the other hand, apparently there are some inherent problems with the development of MUC hub. Over 2008 many routes got reduced and some even axed such as MUC-DEN.

In addition, TAP is another airline which decided to reduce frequencies to Brazil during the IATA Winter. TAP will operate the following weekly frequencies seasonally: LIS-GIG (10, down from 12); LIS-OPO (2, down from 3); LIS-GRU (10, down from 11); OPO-GRU (2, down from 3); LIS-REC (6, down from 7); and LIS-NAT (3, down from 4). BSB, CNF, SSA and FOR remain with same frequencies.

Rgs,


User currently offlinePanAm747 From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 4242 posts, RR: 9
Reply 3, posted (5 years 5 months 2 weeks 1 day ago) and read 3799 times:



Quote:
On the other hand, apparently there are some inherent problems with the development of MUC hub. Over 2008 many routes got reduced and some even axed such as MUC-DEN.

This was going to be my question as well - what is LH's plan/strategy with MUC? Is it going to continue as a reliever hub for FRA? And is it working out? Or is FRA just too strategically important?

It is always smart to do capacity drops when the loads aren't working out...but is this a sign that MUC travel isn't living up to expectations?



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User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11365 posts, RR: 59
Reply 4, posted (5 years 5 months 2 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 3756 times:
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Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 2):
I agree, Lipe. However, we are not seeing AF, IB or BA decreasing flights to Brazil, arent we? Perhaps LH could try FRA-GIG instead since GRU-Germany market is already extremelly well served. It seems MUC-GRU is now without doubts showing some problems as the route started daily, then got reduced to 6 weekly, then red-eye, then 5 weekly, and now 3 weekly. It does not seem a solid route...sorry...We do not see AF doing that in Brazil

Your point is very good. AF continues to show strong results even with 2 daylight flights, IB is back to 21 weekly flights and BA just introduced 3 additional weekly flights to Brazil.
I told about LH problems on MUC route, but seems that even with the red-eye the flight continues to show not so good yieds as FRA. May be LH can ask TAM to serve MUC with their A332.

And i agree... LH could begin FRA-GIG which will no doubt performs very well on IATA winter.

Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 2):
LIS-OPO (2, down from 3);

In fact OPO-GIG.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineAirbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 7869 posts, RR: 10
Reply 5, posted (5 years 5 months 2 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 3711 times:



Quoting Hardiwv (Thread starter):
According to LH online schedule MUC-GRU will be reduced from 5 weekly to 3 weekly (effective 3 November), while MUC-PEK will be reduced from daily to 5 weekly (effective 27 October). MUC-GRU and MUC-PEK are back daily in the Summer schedule.

Not surprising at all with TAM entering *A. IIRC, MUC-PEK has always gotten a strong feed from the GRU-MUC flight. We'll probably just see a shift of the GRU-MUC-PEK traffic to FRA where TAM and LH can better work together.


User currently offlineZRH From Switzerland, joined Nov 1999, 5564 posts, RR: 37
Reply 6, posted (5 years 5 months 2 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 3654 times:



Quoting PanAm747 (Reply 3):
This was going to be my question as well - what is LH's plan/strategy with MUC? Is it going to continue as a reliever hub for FRA? And is it working out? Or is FRA just too strategically important?



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 4):
I told about LH problems on MUC route, but seems that even with the red-eye the flight continues to show not so good yieds as FRA. May be LH can ask TAM to serve MUC with their A332.

Don't forget that LH has also the daily ZRH-GRU flight (by LX) besides FRA. So they have two daily flights and three weekly from MUC.


User currently offlineAirbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 7869 posts, RR: 10
Reply 7, posted (5 years 5 months 2 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 3603 times:



Quoting PanAm747 (Reply 3):
This was going to be my question as well - what is LH's plan/strategy with MUC? Is it going to continue as a reliever hub for FRA? And is it working out? Or is FRA just too strategically important?

I think to call MUC as a reliever hub is incorrect. MUC is LH's hub for European connections while FRA is their intercontinental hub. MUC has passed FRA a long time ago with more intra-Europe flights (and IIRC, destinations), than FRA.


User currently offlineAF086 From France, joined Jan 2007, 1049 posts, RR: 9
Reply 8, posted (5 years 5 months 2 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 3406 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 4):
And i agree... LH could begin FRA-GIG which will no doubt performs very well on IATA winter.

True but I really doubt LH will do that anytime soon.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 1):
As a side note, LH now code-share with JJ which just upgrade their GRU-FRA flight to a 77W (from A345), so in the end, offer Brazil-Germany will show a small increase over 2007/2008 season levels.

True. Lipe do you know how many seats the route got with this aircraft change made by JJ?



Please insert a "smart" joke here.
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11365 posts, RR: 59
Reply 9, posted (5 years 5 months 2 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 3325 times:
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Quoting AF086 (Reply 8):
True. Lipe do you know how many seats the route got with this aircraft
change made by JJ?

AF086, the A345 has 267 seats and the B77W, 365 seats. The difference is that TAM will offer more 7F, 14C and 77Y seats. A little more premium (18% to closer to 21% of the seats).

So in the end, JJ will offer more 686 weekly seats



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineHardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 50
Reply 10, posted (5 years 5 months 2 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 3055 times:



Quoting PanAm747 (Reply 3):
It is always smart to do capacity drops when the loads aren't working out...but is this a sign that MUC travel isn't living up to expectations

I think there are problems with the development of MUC as an intercontinental/long-haul hub. LH has managed to transform MUC into a major intra-European/short to medium-haul hub with facilities far above FRA. However, the problems remains with yields and feeding to keep the long-haul flights.

As I mentioned, the reductions in MUC are not restricted to GRU and PEK. Other flights were also reduced in the past weeks such as BOM, while some routes were even axed for example MUC-DEN.

Quoting Airbazar (Reply 5):
Not surprising at all with TAM entering *A. IIRC, MUC-PEK has always gotten a strong feed from the GRU-MUC flight. We'll probably just see a shift of the GRU-MUC-PEK traffic to FRA where TAM and LH can better work together

As mentioned by Lipe, the introduction of TAM B77W in the route will increase seat capacity in about 20% with 686 additional weekly seats. If you also consider that LH FRA-GRU B747 now is dedicated (before it was shared with EZE) we do have a substantive increase in capacity for Germany-Brazil.

Still, in my personal opinion, considering all LH/LX are concentrated in GRU, it could be smart if LH could relocate the MUC-GRU aircraft to operate FRA-GIG. MUC-GIG could be an option as well.

Quoting ZRH" class=quote target=_blank>ZRH (Reply 6):
Don't forget that LH has also the daily ZRH-GRU flight (by LX) besides FRA. So they have two daily flights and three weekly from MUC.

Correct, and LX also increased ZRH-GRU-SCL from 6 weekly to daily last year. LX is managing to handle very good loads in the leg GRU-SCL which makes the tag-on attractive because GRU captures the majority of the seats from ZRH.

Quoting Airbazar (Reply 7):
MUC is LH's hub for European connections while FRA is their intercontinental hub. MUC has passed FRA a long time ago with more intra-Europe flights (and IIRC, destinations), than FRA.

Correct.

Rgs,


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11365 posts, RR: 59
Reply 11, posted (5 years 5 months 1 week 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 2741 times:
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Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 10):
it could be smart if LH could relocate the MUC-GRU aircraft to operate FRA-GIG. MUC-GIG could be an option as well.

And as i explained Hardi, GIG works very well during January/February even from Germany.
As LH continues to neglect Rio as an important oil and business market, investments keep coming... Gazprom will establish a Latin American office in Rio. While financial industry is in the middle of a strong concentration (Unibanco/Itau merger - ABN/Santander merger), Oil industry keep investing.

Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 10):
Correct, and LX also increased ZRH-GRU-SCL from 6 weekly to daily last year. LX is managing to handle very good loads in the leg GRU-SCL which makes the tag-on attractive because GRU captures the majority of the seats from ZRH.

LX take advantage of being the sole player with strong O&D to South America without connections. A different story from LH and MUC.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineHardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 50
Reply 12, posted (5 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 2399 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 11):
And as i explained Hardi, GIG works very well during January/February even from Germany.
As LH continues to neglect Rio as an important oil and business market, investments keep coming... Gazprom will establish a Latin American office in Rio. While financial industry is in the middle of a strong concentration (Unibanco/Itau merger - ABN/Santander merger), Oil industry keep investing.

Indeed, Lipe. But you can be sure that if LH opens GIG-FRA or GIG-MUC the route will work well year-around not only IATA Winter.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 11):
LX take advantage of being the sole player with strong O&D to South America without connections. A different story from LH and MUC.

I personally think LX O&D ZRH-GRU-SCL is not more than 20%. ZRH is a very good hub for connections and the O&D market is not so large. Even AMS which has far more O&D and also is the only player in AMS-GRU has O&D of about 20%. AMS and ZRH are strong connection markets.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 11):
Oil industry keep investing.

In this point I strongly disagree. Petrobras is cutting investment and Brasken just announced today cut in major investments. Shell late last week announced a freeze in major investment overseas and even cut in staff (I have a friend in Shell HR and she told me a tough plan is comming soon). Oil fiesta is over. A lot of oil projects with oil close to usd 60 are not sustainable. Last week it was said that pre-salt exploration in Brazil and sand exploration area in Canada now will not secure financing.

Rgs,


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11365 posts, RR: 59
Reply 13, posted (5 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 2338 times:
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Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 12):
In this point I strongly disagree

You're 50% right, 50% not so right. Petrobras is cutting expenses, not investments (which they announce will not be delayed) as thousands of corporations around the globe. Mostly oil investments in Brazil, considering they need to hire drilling units far in advance, are made for the next 2 to 3 years and probably will not be reduced.

Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 12):
Indeed, Lipe. But you can be sure that if LH opens GIG-FRA or GIG-MUC the route will work well year-around not only IATA Winter.

Agree.

Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 12):
I personally think LX O&D ZRH-GRU-SCL is not more than 20%. ZRH is a very good hub for connections and the O&D market is not so large

Hardi, i don't have strong data to suport if it's closer to 20% or not but IMO, Swiss generate enough business to fill at least a great portion of this flight. LX network isn't so huge like LH or even AF/BA, so in the end, i believe mostly passengers come from Switzerland.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineZRH From Switzerland, joined Nov 1999, 5564 posts, RR: 37
Reply 14, posted (5 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 2301 times:



Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 12):
I personally think LX O&D ZRH-GRU-SCL is not more than 20%. ZRH is a very good hub for connections and the O&D market is not so large. Even AMS which has far more O&D and also is the only player in AMS-GRU has O&D of about 20%. AMS and ZRH are strong connection markets.



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 13):
Hardi, i don't have strong data to suport if it's closer to 20% or not but IMO, Swiss generate enough business to fill at least a great portion of this flight. LX network isn't so huge like LH or even AF/BA, so in the end, i believe mostly passengers come from Switzerland.

Hardiw is right. There are by fare not enough O/D passengers between ZRH and GRU to fill a daily flight. The SWISS flight is at least fed with 80 % transfer passengers. It is fed by the LX and LH afternoon flights from all over Europe to ZRH. LH also feeds the flight at GRU for the SCL sector (therefore LH does not fly with own metall to SCL).


User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3651 posts, RR: 19
Reply 15, posted (5 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 2256 times:



Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 12):
Indeed, Lipe. But you can be sure that if LH opens GIG-FRA or GIG-MUC the route will work well year-around not only IATA Winter.

No, I don't believe in the success of a possible GIG-MUC flight. O&D traffic is smaller. GIG-FRA on the other hand...

Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 12):
In this point I strongly disagree. Petrobras is cutting investment and Brasken just announced today cut in major investments. Shell late last week announced a freeze in major investment overseas and even cut in staff (I have a friend in Shell HR and she told me a tough plan is comming soon). Oil fiesta is over. A lot of oil projects with oil close to usd 60 are not sustainable. Last week it was said that pre-salt exploration in Brazil and sand exploration area in Canada now will not secure financing.

Oil drilling is a matter of politics in Brazil, not economics. Petrobras will keep drilling at any cost, otherwise we will see the rise of a new state company.


User currently offlineLobster From Germany, joined Oct 2008, 49 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (5 years 5 months 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 2208 times:



Quoting ZRH" class=quote target=_blank>ZRH (Reply 14):
Hardiw is right. There are by fare not enough O/D passengers between ZRH and GRU to fill a daily flight. The SWISS flight is at least fed with 80 % transfer passengers. It is fed by the LX and LH afternoon flights from all over Europe to ZRH. LH also feeds the flight at GRU for the SCL sector (therefore LH does not fly with own metall to SCL).

Agree. Originating ZRH ~80% are connecting and 35-40% off the pax remain onboard and continue on to SCL.


User currently offlineHardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 50
Reply 17, posted (5 years 5 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 1852 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 13):
You're 50% right, 50% not so right. Petrobras is cutting expenses, not investments (which they announce will not be delayed) as thousands of corporations around the globe. Mostly oil investments in Brazil, considering they need to hire drilling units far in advance, are made for the next 2 to 3 years and probably will not be reduced

Lipe: they will cut investments and expenses. Just look at FT from yesterday, major oil companies around the globe are cutting investment, even because access to credit has become more difficult, but also because with oil at USD60 many investment just became unsustainable. I even see it here in Khartoum, another economy based on oil, and most investments are now on a standstill.

For example, KL has most of its KRT flight high yielding traffic based on oil business and over recent weeks loads and yields have come consistently down (my flight yesterday AMS-KRT had only 30%-40% load on business class with the A332 and only 3 people - 2 of us from the office - deboarted in KRT, the rest of business class pax remained onboard to ADD)...it shows how oil business is going down.

Quoting ZRH" class=quote target=_blank>ZRH (Reply 14):
Hardiw is right. There are by fare not enough O/D passengers between ZRH and GRU to fill a daily flight. The SWISS flight is at least fed with 80 % transfer passengers. It is fed by the LX and LH afternoon flights from all over Europe to ZRH. LH also feeds the flight at GRU for the SCL sector (therefore LH does not fly with own metall to SCL).



Quoting Lobster (Reply 16):
Originating ZRH ~80%

The last numbers I had access to (2007) showed O&D traffic ZRH-GRU between 10% and 20%. KL also has AMS-GRU O&D at about 20% and Dutch investment in Brazil is huge and much bigger than Siwss investment.

Btw, NRT is one of LX routes which feeds a lot on high yielding traffic originating in GRU plus many transfer passengers from all over Europe (even many pax from London because LX operates LCY-ZRH therefore allowing more convenient connection for the City). Also LX flight now continues to SCL and LX has been performing quite well on this tag-on segment.

Rgs @ KRT


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