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JL Looking At NGO-ORD Market (rumors)  
User currently offlineKtachiya From Japan, joined Sep 2004, 1794 posts, RR: 2
Posted (5 years 10 months 2 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 2929 times:

Today on 11/11/08, I received an email from my boss that JL is looking at launching a NGO-ORD route. I searched on google and yahoo and yet I wasn't able to find anything on it but could somebody confirm?

To think about it, too much US bound flights have been killed off during the past several years: There were 3 flights to LAX, AC to YVR, UA to SFO and many other European destinations have also been lost.

I think it was mentioned in a previous thread by another fellow Japanese a.netter that JL was initially looking into starting NGO-LAX and Delta was also looking into starting a west coast route as well. I think the aircraft from these operations were coming from the extra batch of B767ER and B777-200ER that the airline was taking delivery of while the B787 was delayed. However, looking through their schedule, it seemed that while 2 B772ER are being delivered, KIX-LHR is also being axed as of next March. Thus, is it appropriate to think that these two B772ER are being reallocated to NGO?

Also, as in the case of JL437 (NGO-CDG) and JL737 (NGO-BKK), they swap the aircraft for these two operations frequently, so my question is, would they be looking at starting another intra asia route with the B772ER or will they upgrade a current route flown by the B763ER to a B772ER?

Nonetheless, this is a very exciting rumor to be floating around since we have lost tons of flights to North American cities. Also, it seems that they are targeting pax traveling onto other North American cities by using the AA hub at ORD, but I am not sure about how this route will do since in the past, JL tried a 2nd daily ORD route from NRT and it didn't last for long.

However, this information is something that CJIAC has received so I think this is not just a rumor that is going to die off.........


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Flown on: DC-10-30, B747-200B, B747-300, B747-300SR, B747-400, B747-400D, B767-300, B777-200, B777-200ER, B777-300
10 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineJacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 14968 posts, RR: 59
Reply 1, posted (5 years 10 months 2 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 2895 times:

AA was doing well on the route, even with the loss of the Toyota contract to UA, AA was still able to profit on ORD-NGO....that being said, I'm not so sure if it would have been sustainable currently (add to the fact AA needed their B777's on other routes).

I'm actually surprised ORD-NRT has 4 different carriers as it is, with NH flying their B77W and JL their B744. I was thinking JL might eventually either downguage the route or "hand it over" to fellow OneWorld Member AA....



"Up the Irons!"
User currently offlineCommavia From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 11639 posts, RR: 61
Reply 2, posted (5 years 10 months 2 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 2864 times:

A smart move, methinks, since NGO is a huge market but now lacks virtually any service at all to the U.S. While it is an expensive market to operate in, the fact that there are only seven flights per week to the mainland U.S. means fares would likely be high.

Personally, I think JAL would be smarter to launch NGO-LAX over -ORD.

LAX is a larger market, and also a larger Japanese market - I believe the single largest in the U.S. Nagoya now only has a single flight to the mainland U.S. - Northwest to Detroit - and nothing at all to the West Coast, where I suspect most of the demand is.

And while AA's Chicago hub would offer more connections than LAX, true, I've got to think that even given AA's huge hub there, the vast majority of the onward connections would still be going to big markets like Boston, New York, Washington, Miami and Dallas, all of which can still be reached over LAX.

NGO-LAX, if scheduled correct, would also only require a single aircraft, whereas -ORD would definitely require 1.5-2 for a daily rotation.


User currently offlineCarpethead From Japan, joined Aug 2004, 2954 posts, RR: 3
Reply 3, posted (5 years 10 months 2 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 2712 times:



Quoting Ktachiya (Thread starter):
it seemed that while 2 B772ER are being delivered

I thought the rest of the 777s being delivered to JL & NH were 773ERs.

Quoting Commavia (Reply 2):
NGO-LAX, if scheduled correct, would also only require a single aircraft, whereas -ORD would definitely require 1.5-2 for a daily rotation.

That's the least of JL's worries. Can JL justify starting a route in this economic environment?
Probably no.
Besides the 763ERs has the legs to operate the route but not exactly the right kind of premium seating for a long-haul flight.

Safe to say. It's better that airlines hunker down and everybody crosses their fingers no other long-haul route is axed.


User currently offlineAirbuseric From Netherlands, joined Jan 2005, 4269 posts, RR: 51
Reply 4, posted (5 years 10 months 2 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 2648 times:

After KIX-LHR, being axed from March 2009, I expect NGO-CDG to be taken out of the JL schedule as well rather soon.


"The whole world steps aside for the man who knows where he is going"
User currently offlineCentrair From Japan, joined Jan 2005, 3598 posts, RR: 20
Reply 5, posted (5 years 10 months 2 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 2626 times:

NGO-ORD would be nice for me but I cannot see it happening. I too believe that NGO-LAX would be first to happen. Why? This is what the CEO said upon ordering the 787s. They want to rebuild the LAX "hub" with smaller aircraft. We used to have 3 flights to LAX from NGO on DL, Varig and JL. 9/11 killed all three and even killed an airline.

I think the only reason for launching NGO-ORD is because UA pulled out of NGO. The UA flight # originated in Chicago and was marketed as such. With UA out, Japanese companies in Chubu are looking for two things: a second non-stop route to the Midwest and a route to the west coast.

NW has operated DTW-NGO for 10 years. Many A.netters say that this will get downgraded under DL management to a smaller aircraft (787 or 772ER). I think that if there is a downgrade to DTW, then they will add a West Coast flight to LAX or SEA using a 767 or A332. They will keep the MNL 5th freedom but it will be operated with a smaller aircraft, allowing the 747s to be used on longer-haul and/or higher density routes such as Africa, Hong Kong, and ATL-NRT.

Maybe I am just hoping that NGO remain a good place to fly from and doesn't get trashed.

Quoting Airbuseric (Reply 4):
I expect NGO-CDG to be taken out of the JL schedule as well rather soon.

Why? JL markets it with AF and CDG is the number 1 destination for Japanese tourists of all economic classes. London is not high on the Japanese travel destination list. I think KIX-LHR is more for slot holding and OneWorld linking. Just think about all the Japan-CDG flights out there...and think about how often they go out packed!

But I could be wrong and again hopeful that NGO remains a good place to fly from and doesn't get trashed.



Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
User currently offlineKtachiya From Japan, joined Sep 2004, 1794 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (5 years 10 months 2 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 2561 times:



Quoting Carpethead (Reply 3):
I thought the rest of the 777s being delivered to JL & NH were 773ERs

I think JL was taking like 9 B763ER and 2 B772ER because of the delay of the B787 but I could be wrong, can somebody confirm this?

Quoting Airbuseric (Reply 4):
After KIX-LHR, being axed from March 2009, I expect NGO-CDG to be taken out of the JL schedule as well rather soon

Why though? There is frequent travel I think between NGO-CDG because of so many designs being based out of Paris, and that the premium cabin used in this flight is full in many cases compared KIX-LHR. JL can't just concentrate everything out of NRT and in the future, HND. They are a Japanese airline and leaving such a large hole in two other populous areas of Japan will just give Japan's business to foreign airlines. Besides, there is no chance that NRT to domestic flying will substantially increase in the future.



Flown on: DC-10-30, B747-200B, B747-300, B747-300SR, B747-400, B747-400D, B767-300, B777-200, B777-200ER, B777-300
User currently offlineJfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8375 posts, RR: 7
Reply 7, posted (5 years 10 months 2 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 2388 times:
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AA did the ORD to Nagoya flight a few years ago with a 777, why would JL wat to do it now given the state of the automobile industry.

User currently offlineCentrair From Japan, joined Jan 2005, 3598 posts, RR: 20
Reply 8, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 2165 times:



Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 7):
AA did the ORD to Nagoya flight a few years ago with a 777, why would JL wat to do it now given the state of the automobile industry.

Getting Toyota is one part of a much bigger economy. Chubu is the 15th largest in the world not only due to automobiles but Aerospace and high-tech. If you buy something "made in Japan", chances are it was made in the Chubu region.

Why did AA pull out of NGO?
When NGO opened there were several things that made AA try it.
1) almost free landing rights
2) limited risk
3) JL & OneWorld feed (JL was not a member yet)
4) competition for a lucrative Japanese Automobile contract which includes cargo and people
5) World Expo Aichi: There were charters but UA, AA and NW were pulling in quite a bit of money during this event.

Heck when NGO opened there were rumors of AM flying here instead of NRT. There were even crazy ones like US trying to come in. It was an exciting new airport with effective domestic connections and easy access to the City. In the end we had NW and UA and UA just pulled out.

Once the EXPO ended and the Automobile contracts were given, AA pulled out in favor of ORD-India. It is a new market and booming economy with lots more potential over a secondary city in Japan.

Why JL could make it work?
1) Japanese like flying their own carrier.
2) JL has room to grow at NGO and not so much at NRT
3) MUCH Cheaper than NRT
4) Can connect more domestic passengers.
5) Can connect more regional passengers.
6) Will have the aircraft to do the job.
7) No one is sure what DL/NW is going to do at NGO so JL is a logical back-up in case NW down-gauges or even cuts DTW-NGO.

Imagine if DL cuts the MNL segment of DTW-NGO then down grades the service to a 772ER or even switches the destination to SEA. The midwest would be lost.



Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
User currently offlineKtachiya From Japan, joined Sep 2004, 1794 posts, RR: 2
Reply 9, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 2112 times:



Quoting Centrair (Reply 8):
Why JL could make it work?
1) Japanese like flying their own carrier.
2) JL has room to grow at NGO and not so much at NRT
3) MUCH Cheaper than NRT
4) Can connect more domestic passengers.
5) Can connect more regional passengers

I tend to agree, also looking at the schedule of some of the domestic wide-bodies, the B744D is schedule to Centrair much more than Osaka Kansai, again showing that perhaps the airline is really looking at connecting some local traffic in Centrair instead of NRT.

The reality is, Tokyo is a primary world class city, yet the domestic connection is extremely limited since the airport is primarily international flying. And from my pax point of view, even if there is a new speed train that might connect Haneda to Narita, it is still a train. It will require me to get off at the airport and change to the train and check in again.

When the B787 start to get delievered to JL, I also hope that LAX restarts again if they are serious about making the hub. I think concentrating everything into NRT is not a viable option although things seem to be pointing in that direction for now.



Flown on: DC-10-30, B747-200B, B747-300, B747-300SR, B747-400, B747-400D, B767-300, B777-200, B777-200ER, B777-300
User currently offlineCentrair From Japan, joined Jan 2005, 3598 posts, RR: 20
Reply 10, posted (5 years 10 months 1 week 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 2042 times:

Right now I am a NW flyer as most of my family lives in and around the Twin Cities. But if DL starts cutting back MSP-NRT and DTW-NGO, I will definitely start considering new options for getting home.

I flew JL on ORD-NRT back in 2000 and liked it (Thank you Japanese tax payers for picking up my C class seat and hotel in Tokyo). My wife prefers NH (her father works for Meitetsu). I am in different but ORD and having the AA connection is just as good for us as DTW and NW connection. Difference is miles and cost. Which ever is cheaper and has a better schedule is what we will take. Sure would love to fly JL again.
hmmm
757 to NRT and 744 to MSP
or
777 to ORD and MD80 to MSP
or
744 to DTW and DC9/A320/757 to MSP
what choices!!!!

I guess NW still wins out for NRT-MSP. I can transfer with kids without being jet lagged. (Chubu and Tokyo have much better play areas for kids.)

Quoting Ktachiya (Reply 9):
also looking at the schedule of some of the domestic wide-bodies, the B744D is schedule to Centrair much more than Osaka Kansai,

Not just widebodies but general movement. The only widebodies we see on domestic at NGO are to FUK, CTS and OKA. Occasionally you can see them to Kagoshima but mostly those three. There are about 90 domestic departures and about the same amount of arrivals into NGO on aircraft ranging from DH8 to 744.



Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
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