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Boeing Pushes Back Its 747-8 Delivery Schedule  
User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (5 years 8 months ago) and read 32078 times:

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Boeing said Friday it has moved the delivery of its first 747-8 Freighter plane to the third quarter of 2010 from its original target of late 2009. Further, the Chicago aerospace company also delayed the first delivery of its 747-8 Intercontinental passenger jet to the second quarter of 2011, from late 2010. Boeing said the new schedule reflects the impact of supply-chain delays due to design changes, the limited availability of engineering resources, and the recent machinist strike that had stopped commercial aircraft production for 53 days. Shares of Boeing were down 3.4% to $41.68 in premarket trading.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...1AE-6623-41AF-A3BE-0AB93C0B0B6F%7D




What everyone being involved in recent threads on this subject already knew but didn't want to believe. It's probably a ~9 month delay at least.

IMO not bolstering the slow selling 747-8i's market position. Customers now have an contractual back door out, if they want to. Depending on the conditions negotiated..

[Edited 2008-11-14 05:59:46]

111 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineZeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 8840 posts, RR: 75
Reply 1, posted (5 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 32021 times:

The original schedule




We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineN328KF From United States of America, joined May 2004, 6483 posts, RR: 3
Reply 2, posted (5 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 32011 times:



Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Customers now have an contractual back door out, if they want to.

Why would you say this? Most of us don't know what the specific contracts for the 747-8 say, but we do know that many of the A380 contracts were for 24 months. Nine months seems like an awfully short time to have a contractual out...penalties may apply, sure, but I doubt this allows an airline to simply walk.



When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' T.Roosevelt
User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (5 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 31788 times:

Quoting N328KF (Reply 2):
Why would you say this? Most of us don't know what the specific contracts for the 747-8 say, but we do know that many of the A380 contracts were for 24 months. Nine months seems like an awfully short time to have a contractual out...penalties may apply, sure, but I doubt this allows an airline to simply walk.

We know the market situation, credit crunch. The A380 is first of a new family, cancellation risk therefor low. The 747-8i is the last subtype of a last version & no metal has been cut. Hardly the same situation.

9 Months is what is the official delay now. Will it be the only delay ? Nobody knows. What we do know is a recent trackrecord on 787, KC767, Wedgetail, strikes, 747-8 cost rises, etc. So at this stage we can not exclude the possibility of further delays.

People at Lufthansa and Boeing are scratchchin their heads and looking at various scenarios. It will be interesting to hear if Lufthansa say anything but the standard "we are fully comitted" kind of phrases.

[Edited 2008-11-14 07:38:51]

User currently offlineNA From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10583 posts, RR: 10
Reply 4, posted (5 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 31701 times:



Quoting Keesje (Reply 3):
People at Lufthansa and Boeing are scratchchin their heads and looking at various scenarios.

The 748I deliveries for LH are timed with the scheduled retirement of the first batch of 744s, although I have not heard anything about a 1:1 replacement. When the 78Is come, the hard-worked early 744s will be 21-23 years old. Its not tragic if this replacement is delayed by 9 months unless there is D-check issue with one of the frames. A secondary effect of the 748I delivery is fleet growth, which of cause is now effected.


User currently offlineClassicLover From Ireland, joined Mar 2004, 4621 posts, RR: 23
Reply 5, posted (5 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 31701 times:



Quoting Keesje (Reply 3):
People at Lufthansa and Boeing are scratchchin their heads and looking at various scenarios.

Got any facts to actually back that up? Pictures of them scratching their heads and looking at various scenarious related to the 747-8?

No?

Didn't thinks so.



I do quite enjoy a spot of flying - more so when it's not in Economy!
User currently offlineFrigatebird From Netherlands, joined Jun 2008, 1529 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (5 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 31687 times:



Quoting N328KF (Reply 2):
Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Customers now have an contractual back door out, if they want to.

Why would you say this?

Because Keesje hopes the 747-8i program will be cancelled. But it's not gonna happen  no 

Quoting N328KF (Reply 2):
Nine months seems like an awfully short time to have a contractual out...penalties may apply, sure, but I doubt this allows an airline to simply walk.

 checkmark  Of course, airlines could cancel their orders - but for free? If the plane misses its performance guarantees by a mile, probably yes. But not because of late delivery.

The delay in itself is no news really, as the image in Zeke's post shows (as he does in nearly all 748 threads  Wink ). But 9 months is somewhat more than I expected. Let's hope Boeing have put some slack in their new schedule.



146,318/19/20/21,AB6,332,343,345,388,722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9,742,74E,744,752,762,763,772,77E,773,77W,AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E90,F50/7
User currently offlineChiad From Norway, joined May 2006, 1110 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (5 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 31694 times:



Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
What everyone being involved in recent threads on this subject already knew but didn't want to believe. It's probably a ~9 month delay at least.

IMO not bolstering the slow selling 747-8i's market position. Customers now have an contractual back door out, if they want to. Depending on the conditions negotiated..

Oh my....
Boeing really has its hands full with delays, strikes and other stuff they have to solve.
And I doubt that this is the last delay for the B748 that we've seen.
And I'm not even going to mention the B787 .... arrrr .. I just did.

If LH actually takes this backdoor then I think the shop will be closed, but that's just me.


User currently offlineSkyyKat From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (5 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 31579 times:



Quoting Keesje (Reply 3):
no metal has been cut

Actually, section 41 has already taken shape.


http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/fl.../7478-takes-shape-with-spirit.html


User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21456 posts, RR: 60
Reply 9, posted (5 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 31551 times:

Whatever currency Boeing had in being the 'reliable' company after Airbus's A380 delays + A350 re-re-boot is gone and then some. At this point, Boeing looks like an incredibly mismanaged mess.


Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (5 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 31458 times:

Quoting SkyyKat (Reply 9):
Actually, section 41 has already taken shape.

Thats for the 8F freighter which seems not at risk (good orders & market prospects / VLA freighter monopoly).

I think the current situation regarding the Boeing 747-8i will make airlines cautious, so probably waiting with ordering until it flies

PS. It seems 1 747-8i has been cancelled in this weeks overview. A VIP aircraft.
http://active.boeing.com/commercial/orders/index.cfm


Ikra: "Whatever currency Boeing had in being the 'reliable' company after Airbus's A380 delays + A350 re-re-boot is gone and then some. At this point, Boeing looks like an incredibly mismanaged mess.

Now I wouldn't say that. I think everybody knows what happened. The economic boom made Boeing commit to timetable they could not realize.

On top of that Boeing is "lucky" oil prices have dramatically decreased during recent months making it less of a burden to fly older less efficient aircraft a bit longer (+pushing forward transisation costs), the airlines have problems getting credit to finance new aircraft and traffic is going down limtting the need for growth capasity..

So the customers probably are less aggressive, they have other things on their minds..

[Edited 2008-11-14 08:16:11]

User currently offlinePlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5438 posts, RR: 29
Reply 11, posted (5 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 31216 times:



Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Customers now have an contractual back door out, if they want to. Depending on the conditions negotiated..



Quoting Keesje (Reply 3):
We know the market situation, credit crunch. The A380 is first of a new family, cancellation risk therefor low. The 747-8i is the last subtype of a last version & no metal has been cut. Hardly the same situation.

9 Months is what is the official delay now. Will it be the only delay ? Nobody knows. What we do know is a recent trackrecord on 787, KC767, Wedgetail, strikes, 747-8 cost rises, etc. So at this stage we can not exclude the possibility of further delays.

In other words, you're guessing and sensationalizing. What's frustrating is that I was just looking at another thread before this one, and was thinking of how you seemed to have "mellowed" over the years. Guess I was wrong.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 11):
Ikra: "Whatever currency Boeing had in being the 'reliable' company after Airbus's A380 delays + A350 re-re-boot is gone and then some. At this point, Boeing looks like an incredibly mismanaged mess.

Now I wouldn't say that. I think everybody knows what happened. The economic boom made Boeing commit to timetable they could not realize.

Some would argue that committing to an unrealistic timetable is a sign of a mismanaged mess, but if you feel better defending them on an obvious issue like this, go for it.

-Dave



Totes my goats!
User currently offlineERAUgrad02 From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 1227 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (5 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 31205 times:

I do not know if this has been brought up but do you think we may see a 747-8i Air Force ONE? I ask this because aen't the current birds based off 747-200?

Desmond in ILM,



Desmond MacRae in ILM
User currently offlineDanny From Poland, joined Apr 2002, 3506 posts, RR: 2
Reply 13, posted (5 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 31206 times:



Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 12):
Quoting Keesje (Reply 3):
We know the market situation, credit crunch. The A380 is first of a new family, cancellation risk therefor low. The 747-8i is the last subtype of a last version & no metal has been cut. Hardly the same situation.

9 Months is what is the official delay now. Will it be the only delay ? Nobody knows. What we do know is a recent trackrecord on 787, KC767, Wedgetail, strikes, 747-8 cost rises, etc. So at this stage we can not exclude the possibility of further delays.

In other words, you're guessing and sensationalizing. What's frustrating is that I was just looking at another thread before this one, and was thinking of how you seemed to have "mellowed" over the years. Guess I was wrong.

Like it or not but cancellation of 748i is the best solution for Boeing at this time. Sometimes its better to swallow bitter pill like Airbus did by cancelling A380F and move on.


User currently offlineSCAT15F From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 402 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (5 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 31193 times:



Quoting Keesje (Reply 11):
PS. It seems 1 747-8i has been cancelled in this weeks overview. A VIP aircraft.

That's a very bad sign.

Airbus could have a Trent XWB A380 ready to go by the time the 748i enters service.

I believe Boeing has no choice but to compensate for the late entry by improving performance specifications, or else they are not going to get any more airline customers. They have to go for more composites, specifically, a composite wingbox, and also improvements to the GEnx 2b-67. That should enable revised specs to be 8300 nautical miles at mach .86 with 479 passengers (crown space galley stowage) at the same 975K TO weight.

That should be enough to compensate for any A380 improvements between now and 2011.

Get on the ball Boeing!  gnasher 


User currently offlineClassicLover From Ireland, joined Mar 2004, 4621 posts, RR: 23
Reply 15, posted (5 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 31173 times:



Quoting SCAT15F (Reply 15):
That's a very bad sign.

Not really, global credit crunch much? It's entirely possible the VIP has taken a hit and can no longer afford it.



I do quite enjoy a spot of flying - more so when it's not in Economy!
User currently offlineDfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 957 posts, RR: 51
Reply 16, posted (5 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 30977 times:



Quoting Danny (Reply 14):
Like it or not but cancellation of 748i is the best solution for Boeing at this time. Sometimes its better to swallow bitter pill like Airbus did by cancelling A380F and move on.

What on earth makes you say that? The -8I is a minimal cost derivative once the -8F is developed. It's likely that the LH order alone is more than enough to cover those additional costs and turn a positive ROI.

If LH cancels or defers their order (like UPS and FedEx did with the A380F) then I could agree with you. But LH hasn't canceled nor have they hinted at canceling, so you are being entirely premature.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 11):
On top of that Boeing is "lucky" oil prices have dramatically decreased during recent months making it less of a burden to fly older less efficient aircraft a bit longer (+pushing forward transisation costs)

If you drown someone, they're not going to come back to life when you pull them out of the water. The relief in oil prices will not be enough to bring back the A340-500/600, which were the only true "victims" of the oil shock. High oil prices likely helped the sales of the A330 and 777, and the A320/737NG equally.


User currently offlinePlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5438 posts, RR: 29
Reply 17, posted (5 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 30944 times:



Quoting Danny (Reply 14):
Like it or not but cancellation of 748i is the best solution for Boeing at this time. Sometimes its better to swallow bitter pill like Airbus did by cancelling A380F and move on.

First, that's your opinion, and I respect that. Second, it has nothing to do with what I was saying. But thanks for reading my mind and sharing it with the group.

For the record, Danny, there's the phrase "Lose early, and lose gracefully". If Boeing is indeed going to eventually pull the plug on the 748i, I would prefer they do it now. Happy?  Yeah sure

Quoting NorCal (Reply 17):
He is just more eloquent and adds pretty pictures.

HEY! I look forward to those pictures!  Smile

-Dave



Totes my goats!
User currently offlineManfredj From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 1132 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (5 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 30607 times:



Quoting Keesje (Reply 11):
I think the current situation regarding the Boeing 747-8i will make airlines cautious, so probably waiting with ordering until it flies

Who knows what the financial situation will be two months...let alone two years down the road. Fact of the matter is, any betting man would put their money on any aircraft from any manufacturer being late. This could be a good thing for airlines wanting to put off their deliveries until more stable times.

Timetables are not set in stone; they are a guage of we can expect to see the merchandise in its full figure.


Keesje: The 748 is already being put together. The odds of it being scrapped are the same as you jumping for joy the day it flies. If it doesn't fly, the shipping industry is in big trouble as there are NO other VLA freighters on the market. Simple as that.



757: The last of the best
User currently offlinePlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5438 posts, RR: 29
Reply 19, posted (5 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 30531 times:



Quoting Manfredj (Reply 21):
Keesje: The 748 is already being put together. The odds of it being scrapped are the same as you jumping for joy the day it flies. If it doesn't fly, the shipping industry is in big trouble as there are NO other VLA freighters on the market. Simple as that.

I'm pretty sure it's only the 748i - not the F - that he thinks should/could be shuttered.

-Dave



Totes my goats!
User currently offlineER757 From Cayman Islands, joined May 2005, 2483 posts, RR: 7
Reply 20, posted (5 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 30495 times:



Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Customers now have an contractual back door out, if they

As Ronald Reagan once said. "Well, there you go again." You just aren't going to be happy unless LH cancels their order, are you? Will you still be predicting the demise of the 748i when the first revenue producing flight departs FRA?

That item aside - while not surprised to read this, it is disappointing. Boeing's track record of late is pretty dismal and not getting better. Lord knows what surprises await us once the 787 begins flight tests........


User currently offlinePlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5438 posts, RR: 29
Reply 21, posted (5 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 30427 times:



Quoting ER757 (Reply 23):
As Ronald Reagan once said. "Well, there you go again." You just aren't going to be happy unless LH cancels their order, are you? Will you still be predicting the demise of the 748i when the first revenue producing flight departs FRA?

A 748i cancellation could theoretically still happen. Given the current situation with Boeing and the world economy, it becomes a bigger possibility (even if still small) every week. You and I both agree that the world is a different place than it was when the 748i was launched, and so as things change, the case for the 748i has changed as well.

The problem is, Keesje (and folks of the same mind on this issue) might say "See, I've been telling you for three years...". However, the theoretical basis for this point of view is different in many ways than the reality behind it.

It'd be like me saying "That Kite will never fly!" before it was even made. I think it's because the shape of it is off. When the time comes, it doesn't fly, and I proclaim victory. However, the reason the kite didn't fly was not because of design, but because the weather had changed and there was no wind. Yes I was right. But it was more luck than anything else.

-Dave



Totes my goats!
User currently offlineER757 From Cayman Islands, joined May 2005, 2483 posts, RR: 7
Reply 22, posted (5 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 30322 times:

Well Said PlanesNTrains....couldn't agree more with your analysis

User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21456 posts, RR: 60
Reply 23, posted (5 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 30524 times:

This was sent to me:
http://www.fleetbuzzeditorial.com/2008/11/14/747-8setback/

LH is still on board. Sorry Keesje. Cargolux too, of course, but now they need to scramble to find some capacity in the short term. This is assuming that they aren't privately smiling that with an economic slowdown they don't have extra capacity coming online that they might not need.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlinePlanesNTrains From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5438 posts, RR: 29
Reply 24, posted (5 years 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 30352 times:



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 26):
This is assuming that they aren't privately smiling that with an economic slowdown they don't have extra capacity coming online that they might not need.

The proverbial ace up their sleeve for Boeing.

Or luck.

-Dave



Totes my goats!
25 RedChili : Now, I really do believe that Lufthansa will eventually fly the 748i, but the link you provided is actually the most "748-negative" comment I've seen
26 Glareskin : Respect Keesje! You have built yourself a reputation all over the world. This seems logical to me. They have calculated their business plan with 20 j
27 Stitch : Nobody has yet been able to tell me exactly how throwing hundreds of millions to billions of dollars away benefits Boeing. If it is a defensible posi
28 Danny : That's a.net myth. I will not believe that 20 deeply discounted frames will pay for R&D plus their manufacturing cost (which is the highest on first
29 Post contains links and images Keesje : Because development costs reach their maximum when you really set up dedicated production for just 20 aircraft and its support organisation for 30 yr
30 DfwRevolution : Not according to those who are close to the program. What is so hard to believe about this? This is not a clean-sheet program, Boeing has the heritag
31 SCAT15F : Well, at a minimum, if LH converts the 20 options, Arik buys its 4 and a few more BBJ orders are picked up. 50 748i's should should make a reasonable
32 EPA001 : Your arguments are very convincing Keesje. You could very well be right, but as a fan of aviation and as a fan of some diversity left in the air, I h
33 Stitch : However, as DfwRevolution noted here - and I have noted ad nauseum everywhere else - Boeing has already spent the significant majority (I would comfo
34 Jacobin777 : Which I'm sure you are hoping for... Not for the program itself..
35 Post contains links Chiad : I would think twice before dissing Keesje too much. He has shown some extraordinary qualities in his crystal bowl readings. http://www.airliners.net/
36 ER757 : I have to agree for the most part - but when it comes to the 748i, he seems to be beating the drum especially hard to try and convince us (or maybe h
37 SYfan100 : Right now I would not be a very happy customer with Boeing. Granted strikes happen. I can understand that part. But from day one the Boeing 787 and 74
38 Tdscanuck : Metal's been cut...has been for several months, actually. Which shop are we talking about? It comes up from time to time...there's really no reason t
39 Post contains links Zeke : We will never know as Boeing "don't provide specific details on the issues the program is having from a cost perspective" All we know is that "Higher
40 DocLightning : They're delaying the 748? OMG what a shocker. I am still curious to know, however, what LH seems to know that everyone else doesn't. They're not idiot
41 Post contains images N14AZ : Good question. I think LH can only win in this situation. Here is my theory: 1.) Big discount It's obvious to all that they received a huge discount.
42 Danny : Fair point but potential revenue and profits from 787 (as well as liability if they "get it wrong") justify it. I dont' see justification for pumping
43 Post contains images Jambrain : What I don't get about this flame war is why the B advocates think that 747-8i is good for Boeing, it seems to me that when we look back in 20 years
44 Chiad : Oh yeah ..sorry about that ... I should have defined it more clearly. The B748i shop. I'm 100% convinced that that B748F will enter service.
45 Columba : I see LH stay committed to the 747-8I and maybe Boeing gives them a discount on further 747-8Is (LH´s 747 fleet chief mentioned a year ago that he ca
46 Frigatebird : Maybe, in 5-10 years, it will appear that it would have been better if the 748i hadn't been developed. But that's the big advantage of hindsight, isn
47 Jambrain : That money is spent, despise what some A.neters argue; certifying a passenger aircraft takes a lot of engineering effort (even if that money is recou
48 Post contains images Keesje : Long time ago someone gave me a college on aircraft development costs, with cashflows , break even point, nett present values etc. When the first air
49 Vfw614 : I do not think that Lufthansa will jump ship. However, imho the above source is not exactly what I would call rock solid. I seriously doubt that Luft
50 Columba : Agreed and as I said above Boeing is very likely interested in keeping LH as a happy customer so they will work something out. I also believe once th
51 NorCal : Most of the costs of the 747-8I can be spread over the 747-8F too. You continue to ignore the amount the commonality between the 8I and 8F including
52 Airbazar : The more this gets delayed the more expensive the aircraft becomes but even this is the least of the problems. In my opinion the bigger problem for B
53 Jacobin777 : You obviously don't know who he is and what his sources/connections are which is ok as you do have a right to an opinion..no matter how incorrect (an
54 Stitch : It isn't good for Boeing. I don't think they ever should have bothered with the 747-8 program because the -8I was never a threat to the A380-800 and
55 SparkingWave : We have seen with the A380 that airlines will wait for aircrafts that they have ordered. If LH can wait 2 years for an A380, they'll wait 9 months or
56 Vfw614 : I did not mean to say that he has no idea what he is talking about. But making final decisions at Lufthansa is up to the two-tiered board. And as far
57 Airbazar : The difference being that there is nothing that even comes close to match what the A380 has to offer, especially as far as floor space, while most 74
58 Gorgos : With the backlog both manufacturers have, there's not really another option then to wait. Choosing another airplane model from either manufacturer wi
59 Stitch : I doubt such a thing exists in the public domain, to be honest. And also to be honest, at this point it doesn't matter for either program. The bulk o
60 Tdscanuck : Boeing doesn't have the resources to do a whole new program on top of the 787 right now. So it was the 747-8i (or something like it) or do nothing, w
61 SparkingWave : Floor space is not the only factor, especially when it comes to airline orders and purchases. And I disagree - the 747 does come close to the A380 in
62 FrmrCAPCADET : So little demand for VLAs that there is no need for anything beyond the 380/748, with anticipated improvements they are/will do very well efficiency w
63 Jambrain : I do mostly agree, but I am arguing that to have the "plug" will stop B from needing to commit to a new game changing aircraft, one that will benefit
64 Airbazar : Only LH knows why it ordered the 8i. The fact that only one carrier has ordered tells me that there is no demand for it and that airlines are happy w
65 PlanesNTrains : Well, that's great IF Boeing is ready to proceed with one of those programs. Until then, they need to be working on something, and Boeing apparently
66 Travelhound : What is interesting about your graph is that it shows the majority of the costs come at the tooling design and tooling fabrication stages. The 748i i
67 SCAT15F : Keesje has valid arguments. I think we can all agree that we hope Boeing sells enough to make the 748i a worthwhile investment. In the end however, I
68 Ikramerica : He doesn't care to listen, just as he likes to create his own seating capacity for the 747 because the A380 has wider Y seats. So there's no point in
69 Tdscanuck : No, it doesn't. The areas under all those curves are 1. They normalized the curves to the actual dollar cost of each factor. The graph only shows you
70 Travelhound : Fair enough comment, but I would suggest for an aircraft the tooling / infrastructure / set-up costs would be somewhere around the development costs.
71 Alessandro : Some wild ideas, if the future aviation market is very depressed and the difference in efficency between the B744 and B748 is huge. Could we see upgra
72 Post contains images N14AZ : Interesting idea. At least for the engines. Reminds me about the DC 8 programme and fuel was much cheaper at that time.
73 EBJ1248650 : How about "Holds on to" meaning they remain committed? And consider Boeing can't give a new delivery date until it has its own good idea when that mi
74 AirNZ : Yes, you are making a fair point but, then again, isn't a.net a discussion forum although many are using it as if their verdict is definitive. How ma
75 Tdscanuck : Absolutely agreed...I didn't mean to imply that the actual costs were $10 billion and $1 million, or even in that ratio. It's just important to recog
76 Post contains images Keesje : What about the Risk Sharing -8i suppliers (bins / seats / galleys / lavs / entertainment systems / airco / floors / avionics / upperdeck / lighting /
77 Stitch : Yeah, what about them? How do you think they will respond to Boeing telling them to "never mind" about delivering the product they've spent money on
78 Astuteman : More significantly, IMO, Airbus WILL have a 4.5 tonne lighter, 2% better SFC A380 coming off the line, at around the time the 748i now looks to be en
79 Post contains images Keesje : It would be interesting to know what Leahy's men are doing. The 747-8F orders seems safe. Airbus has limitted possibilities to offer anything in the 1
80 Rheinwaldner : On the other hand more time can also give the 748 a better efficiency. Depends on the tasks Boeing plans to do in the meantime. More profound, why is
81 Astuteman : I've no doubt the 748 will also improve over time. But I'm concerned that getting the basic engineering done is priority one at present, and that's g
82 Post contains images Keesje : Lets wait until the -8i is build before being happy with them. The first 20 aircraft heavy (ref. 787/A380) won't make LH happy. LH cancelled launch o
83 CHRISBA777ER : If LH back out (which I dont think they will) LH will have a load of 748 line slots available. I wonder if LHCargo might be interested at a very cut p
84 Brilondon : What are you basing this on? Supposition and conjecture or do you have hard facts and concrete evidence to back up this claim? He seems to love to ju
85 Parapente : "He says that, as the airline eyes a replacement for five Boeing 747-400s, 17 747-400 combis and 10 MD-11s, it has effectively ruled out the passenger
86 CHRISBA777ER : In fairness to Keesje - he is on solid ground with this one. The project is delayed and it is widely held by everyone here that delays = compensation
87 Stitch : I expect the 747-8F is too much plane for LH. They replaced their 747-200Fs with the similar-performance MD-11F instead of up-gauging to the 747-400F
88 Post contains links Keesje : Well, if aircraft are late, contract terms are violated. This leads to renegotiations. Compensation is likely in these cases. LH is not a partner, it
89 CHRISBA777ER : I am not convinced - the 748F will be the parcel freighter par excellence and LHC are a big player. The economics per tonne will be compelling enough
90 Brilondon : I definatly agree with you. I have tried repeatedly to add him to my resprcted user list as I find him very knowledgable, I just wanted him to cite w
91 Stitch : I know that LH may not be the most trustworthy of sources, but the evening news did note that one of their PR people earlier today expressly said the
92 Columba : Lufthansa has said that they have no interest in the A350-1000 as it does not offer enough range for their needs. There was an article you can find i
93 Danny : " target=_blank>http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo...81644 This is why LF is so comfortable with sticking to 748i order. 748F is their insurance po
94 Astuteman : Find that a bit strange, but there you go. They would appear to know something about the 787-10 that we don't. Rgds
95 Ikramerica : Well, different roles? The A350-1000 would be much larger, and maybe LH sees the 748, with greater range and more pax, as a better plane for long rou
96 Post contains links Columba : Sorry 787-10 is said not to have the right performance: Here is the quote: "Buchholz expressed confidence that the 747-8 will be successful. "We need
97 Astuteman : Much appreciated. Rgds
98 Stitch : Based on the last "spec" Boeing was shopping, the 787-10 is a valid competitor to both the A330-300 and A340-300. It offers more passenger space, sign
99 Columba : Maybe the "weak" performance of the A350-1000 is one reason why we did not see many orders for it as a 747 replacement.
100 Stitch : All we really know is what Tim Clark has said which is the numbers Airbus has been presenting him show it will carry 6t less payload then their curre
101 Post contains links and images Keesje : It now appears the wing was adjusted, required engineering underestimated. Wing loads had to be changed leading to lots of follow up. Driving demand f
102 Stitch : I continue to believe they are well on the downward slope, but whatever. Be interesting to know if "original performance targets for the 747-8" means
103 Astuteman : Sounds to me likely that the spec performance is predicated on the supercritical foil, but that the effect the supercritical foil has on the centre o
104 SCAT15F : I seem to recall the number being 8300nm, but 8500nm would be great. I hope "original" would also mean mach .86 "economical" cruise instead of mach .
105 Frigatebird : Well, for a VIP model, some may even tool up for just one.... The only thing that matters whether it makes a profit for them or not. But with at leas
106 Travelhound : About 3-4 months a Boeing exec. (I think it was Scott Carson) made a comment that they made assumptions (the word used) about the 748 that didn't pan
107 Tdscanuck : Whether they're before or after the bump, unless we know how big the bump is (which we don't) we can't draw any conclusions from it. It's not clear t
108 Post contains links and images RedChili : More good news... "Boeing admits nutplate problem on 747, 767, 777" http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...tplate-problem-on-747-767-777.html The arti
109 Scipio : Presumably, if this implies delays in getting the last few 747-400s out, it also implies at least a potential for further delays in the 747-8?
110 Stitch : Well delays in that the line isn't ready as soon as expected so they can't start production when they now plan to. But while Boeing waits for that li
111 Astuteman : If I look at this quote... It may well be just me, but the reference to both "more engineering resources" and "persistent and self-perpetuating desig
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