PITrules From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 3452 posts, RR: 6 Posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 11500 times:
The rumors of a Delta service to Australia have been around for a few years now. Most of us would assume this would consist of a service to SYD from LAX or ATL. While these rumors have been going on, we have seen Delta go forward with a most amazing expansion into Africa, one which most of us would not have predicted in scope and function - the use of scissor hubs in Dakar and Sal to serve a great many destinations, many with 757s.
Is such a plan in the works for the South Pacific? Blanket the region with service on two fronts - nonstop between the major markets with daily 777 flights, and then use a scissors hub in HNL to serve the smaller markets with one-stop same plane or connections with smaller aircraft. The difference from Africa would be the use of 767s or A-330s where the 757 would not have the range.
So how plausible is this?
I can see the following 777LR service:
SYD-JFK (all business class due to range issues).
I understand QF does very well on their JFK premium sales.
Then perhaps a scissors hub in HNL for the rest:
ANC (via AS c/s)/SEA/PDX/SFO/LAX/SLC/MSP/ATL - HNL - AKL/BNE/SYD/MEL/ADL/PER
3/4x weekly. Perhaps add CNS/OOL/DRW later on?
Some of the above could be same plane service between cities without current service, such as PER-LAX and SYD-SEA, albiet with the stop.
The real winners in such a scheme would be cities such as PER, SEA, PDX, SLC, etc.
I see a couple advantages over a scissors hub in Hawaii that Sal does not offer for Africa. First, half the flights are already in place (N. America to HNL); local traffic to/from Hawaii can be carried (however, eastbound Oceana-N America service would have to clear customs in HNL to take advantage of this); and when Delta enters this market, if they need to add flights to N. America for such a plan, it would fill some of the gaps left from the loss of Aloha and ATA. All this is of course dependent on a recovering world economy, which will hopefully be happening when Delta enters this region.
This may seem far fetched, but think about how we would have thought about Delta's planned African service just two years ago. QF and JetStar have a lot of 787s comming that will need to be countered if the competition is serious. So how do all you armchair route planners think Delta will serve the S. Pacific?
Concordski From United States of America, joined Sep 2008, 91 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 11455 times:
This has been discussed a lot but I think there's a significant possibility that Delta will start Sydney service. Delta has been outgoing and hasn't been afrait to try the scissor hub method as mentioned with Dakar and newly announced Sal. Delta even asked Boeing for possibly ways to get even more range out of the 77L. No where should they need the range that I can see besides SYD. However, I think they came up empty handed reguardless of the potential eastcoast-SYD demand. Maybe if Delta and Alaska Airlines get a little cozier might we see SEA-SYD service. SLC not a chance even with Delta's bold SLC-NRT which has required much convincing by the people in SLC with $. SYD would have to be a must before other cities like MEL. Asking for anything else seems to be stretching it but then again, asking for service to many tiny DL long range markets seemed the same way. LAX as possible origin if they re-open the hub, again. lol.
I think it's coming but Delta will wait out the recession and focus more on emerging business markets as seen by the Deltafrica expansion.
LAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 27668 posts, RR: 50
Reply 2, posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 11291 times:
Seems like every month this is discussed.
US-Australia local market O&D demand is heavily skewed towards California. I show 62% of all travelers in 2006 between the countries started or ended their journey in California with LA being by far the largest chunk of that. In other words all the remaining 49 states only add up to the remaining 38%.
Knowing this DL either either must make a what could be costly and bloody stand out of California, or try to capture as much of that 38% possible of the rest of the country via ATL lets assume. Practically speaking however only the 38% East of the Mississippi could be routed via ATL, so very fast the potential market shrinks ever more.
As far as your scissor hub idea for get it. Remember history that both CO and UA for basically operated such flights with West Coast services connecting to Australia and New Zealand at HNL. Today look at HA which does that pretty much connects the entire West Coast via HNL to SYD and only manages 3-4x weekly service. HA is actually so desperate for West Coast feed for its SYD flight that is offers free stopovers or intra-island flights if desired in addition to consistently having one of the lowest US-Australia fares. In other words the Hawaii stop kills your yield compared to nonstop options from mainland US.
Now my personal and easy recommondation for DL -- make a deal with V Australia.
[Edited 2008-11-17 23:27:01]
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
Gemuser From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 6122 posts, RR: 6
Reply 3, posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 11236 times:
Here we go again!
Actually I think the idea of DL hubbing over HNL is a great idea PROVIDED they:
1) Coordinate the schedules so that there is no more than a 2 hour or so layover
2) Make the connection as seamless as possible
3) Use decent planes (A330, Fully refurbished B767s etc)
4) Concentrate on an everywhere east of the Rockies non-stop strategy, ie forget the west coast except maybe SEA & PDX
The history of services HNL-anywhere but SYD is not encouraging! But with enough connection possibilities it might work. HNL-PER at 5880 nm is probably too far, unless DL is willing to put an A332 on it.
As for ATL-SYD & JFK-SYD I have seen NOTHING to change my mind, its too far and not enough traffic.
Frankly I would be surprised if DL would be prepared to commit the management and financial resources to make this work, because there are more profitable routes elsewhere, but who knows!
PITrules From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 3452 posts, RR: 6
Reply 4, posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 11130 times:
Well I did do a search on the topic with no real results other than the usual chatter about the rumored ATL-SYD and the usual SQ stuff. Nothing came up on a Delta scissors hub strategy; certainly nothing since they actually announced such a network for use in Africa. But whatever.
Koruman From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 11040 times:
Of course the big advantage of a HNL scissor hub (similar to the Hong Kong Koruhub between multiple UK and Australia destinations which is advocated on the NZ Aviation threads) is that
THIS WOULD MASSIVELY INCREASE YIELDS BETWEEN US MAINLAND DESTINATIONS AND HONOLULU.
At present, virtually all mainland-HNL services carry low-yielding tourist traffic.
But if each 767 from say San Diego, Los Angeles, Seattle, Portland, Oakland and further east managed to sell even four Business Class and, ultimately when Americans learn the value of the product, Premium Economy seats to passengers flying through to Australia then those mainland-HNL flights will become far more profitable.
The whole point of this is NOT to try to compete for the O+D LAX-SYD market, but to use the fact that Honolulu Airport is a far better one to transit than LAX or even SFO, not to mention that a stopover in Hawaii has attracted Trans-Pacific travellers since the days of the Clippers and the 707s.
Sydscott From Australia, joined Oct 2003, 3465 posts, RR: 20
Reply 8, posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 10927 times:
Quoting LAXintl (Reply 2): Now my personal and easy recommondation for DL -- make a deal with V Australia.
Exactly! A tie up with V Australia brings both Australian Domestic, Trans Tasman and South Pacific feed to the DL network. It's a much more sensible option especially when V will have a fleet of brand new 773's to use and an existing relationship with NW.
Neither of which will ever happen, at least not with a 777-200LR, as we will not be receiving them with auxiliary fuel tanks. Nor would we create a sub-fleet of LRs, ever. Period. End of discussion.
When we being SYD service, it will, more than likely, be a direct service from either JFK (via LAX) or ATL (again, via LAX), and even then, not necessarily a 777-200LR on the route (though, more than likely, it will be).
SparkingWave From South Korea, joined Jun 2005, 682 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 10834 times:
A stopover in HNL won't work - no one wants to stopover in HNL when they can just fly nonstop to Asia from the U.S. mainland. Don't just take my word for it. AA flew to SYD via HNL years ago and was never able to make this flight work so they pulled out.
Even NW once had Calfornia nonstop to Australia flights, lost money and pulled out as well, leaving only UA with these flights.
Quoting PITrules (Thread starter): we have seen Delta go forward with a most amazing expansion into Africa, one which most of us would not have predicted in scope and function - the use of scissor hubs in Dakar and Sal to serve a great many destinations, many with 757s.
DL's expansion has been the most impressive. But with the recession in place and many Americans cutting back on spending, it is a serious question to see how long this can last. IMHO it will only be a matter of time before DL retreats from many of these markets to save cash.
Flights to the moon and all major space stations. At Pan Am, the sky is no longer the limit!
WorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 10583 times:
not only do Australian airlines have 787s on order but so does DL/NW. How those deliveries play out remains to be seen but the 787 and 777 are designed to fragment the market using nostop routes. A scissor hub doesn't fragment the market with more new nonstops.
And scissor hubs generally result in LOWER not higher yields if you are competing with other carriers that have nonstops. in order for DL to be competitive in SYD, they must fly nonstop to the US.
AA also flew to Australia via HNL from DFW years ago but dropped the route against other carriers' nonstops from LAX.
Yes, you could add a couple secondary destinations using a 757 or 767 but there aren't that many cities that would justify such a service pattern. Further, DL will have stiff competition, at least from the Australian side, in any service expansion. Australia is a much bigger travel market than west Africa and has very strong carriers on both sides.
Also, SAL is really not a scissor hub since there are different destinations served - but there is still only one SAL flight to the US each day. SAL is just a common stopover point for each of the six flights/week - primarily needed to keep from leaving crews at their destination for anywhere from 4 days to a week. Also, JFK-DKR is being moved so DKR is not a hub either. I believe there will be just one ATL-DKR flight per day - on some days it will go on to CPT, on others to NBO. Again, it is just a stopover point.
DL will be in Australia and the S. Pacific but as I have said they will enter the market when the market is right and their "route development budget" is strong enough to sustain the start up costs that any airline would have to pay to break into the market. IN many ways, the Australia market will only get more competitive so the earlier would seem to be better but I'm not spending DL's money so they will move when they are ready.
And when DL enters the Australia market, they will be the only US six continent carrier since Pan Am and one a relatively few 6 continent carriers in the world.
Jacobin777 From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 15105 posts, RR: 59
Reply 19, posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 10143 times:
Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 14): Given that VS is coming soon with their B77Ws and QF is increasing capacity with its A380's, I don't see DL starting Australia services anytime soon...IMHO
I meant V.Australia and obviously not VS....
Quoting Flynavy (Reply 15): Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 14):
Given that VS is coming soon with their B77Ws and QF is increasing capacity with its A380's, I don't see DL starting Australia services anytime soon...
Delta has publicly stated that they intend to serve Australia, no later than 2010.
That's < 14 months from now....I'll believe it when I see it.. ...ain't happenin'..
STT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 17271 posts, RR: 50
Reply 21, posted (6 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 9678 times:
Quoting PITrules (Thread starter): Is such a plan in the works for the South Pacific? Blanket the region with service on two fronts - nonstop between the major markets with daily 777 flights, and then use a scissors hub in HNL to serve the smaller markets with one-stop same plane or connections with smaller aircraft.
CO, AA, NWA all had HNL-Australia flights at one point. CO had the largest operation at HNL, they flew DC-10s and 747s from Honolulu to Auckland, Brisbane, Cairns, Melbourne, Sydney, Papette, Vancouver, LAX, SFO, IAH, NRT, GUM, Island Hopper, Manila etc.. CO even had nonstop JFK-HNL flights in the late '80s that continued on to Sydney, they operated from the Eastern Airlines terminal.
CO's HNL - South Pacific operation lasted 20+ years, the problem is that connecting in Honolulu is just not competitive with Qantas, Air New Zealand and UAL nonstops from the West Coast. The nonstops from the West were much higher yielding, while the flights through HNL to Australia and New Zealand were full of the flip flop and back pack crowd.
If your going to make flights to the South Pacific work you need two things, a nonstop from the Lower 48 and a large aircraft (bigger than a 777).