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Question:would Cathay Order The A380 If..  
User currently offlineBeaucaire From Syria, joined Sep 2003, 5252 posts, RR: 25
Posted (6 years 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 11829 times:

..the 747-8 passenger version would not be built ?
or would they rather increase 777 orders ?
I still think there is a likelyhood the 747-8 will not see the daylight-..despite LH re-confirming their comitment .Now Cathay would be a hot contender for the 747-8 ,but have not decided.is that because Boeing does not push them hard enough,knowing they might shell the project ?


Please respect animals - don't eat them...
60 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 1, posted (6 years 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 11799 times:

I think if CX decide they need a VLA then the A388 is a nailed on cert. I dont give the 748i much of a chance I'm afraid.

CX has always stated that they want either more capacity or more range from the baseline A388 and if the A389 were available now they would take it in a heartbeat i think. Initially I thought that they would go for a A380-800R, with a little more thrust/range which was what they were after in their press releases, but the range improvement to the A388 baseline model from about 2012 onwards means that an R model is essentially pointless and that much of the benefits it would bring have already been realised by the better-than-expected A388.

I think CX will go for the improved A388 from 2012 onwards, so they might order any time.  Smile

Zeke would be the guy to ask though.



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineFrancoflier From France, joined Oct 2001, 3809 posts, RR: 11
Reply 2, posted (6 years 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 11703 times:

Given the actual circumstances, I don't see an order for a VLA in the pipeline...

The order of the day is damage control, and the 77W does that very well.

CX's 744 replacement still doesn't have a name, but when they finally make their minds up, the A389 had better be on offer...



Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit posting...
User currently offlineN14AZ From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2780 posts, RR: 25
Reply 3, posted (6 years 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 11564 times:



Quoting Francoflier (Reply 2):
Given the actual circumstances, I don't see an order for a VLA in the pipeline...

I am afraid you are right. My only hope was QF. Does anybody know when they will have their anniversary? There were some speculations that they would announce some follow-up orders.

Quoting Francoflier (Reply 2):
CX's 744 replacement still doesn't have a name, but when they finally make their minds up, the A389 had better be on offer...

In other words, let's hope they don't ask for RFPs before 2010? What is the time schedule for the replacement of CXs 744s?


User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 4, posted (6 years 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 11511 times:



Quoting N14AZ (Reply 3):
Quoting Francoflier (Reply 2):
Given the actual circumstances, I don't see an order for a VLA in the pipeline...

I am afraid you are right. My only hope was QF. Does anybody know when they will have their anniversary? There were some speculations that they would announce some follow-up orders.

NH will take six or so very shortly. In the next 12 months we can expect another 12 or so from BA, QR to take another 4-6, QF to probably take up a few more, and new orders from OZ and probably AI as well.

Don't rule out IB or JJ either.

Granted, its not ideal, but it is something - the A380 line will staying ticking over. As discussed above CX could take it for a post-2012 delivery.



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineFrigatebird From Netherlands, joined Jun 2008, 1701 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (6 years 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 11391 times:



Quoting Beaucaire (Thread starter):
I still think there is a likelyhood the 747-8 will not see the daylight-..despite LH re-confirming their comitment

I haven't seen any evidence that the 747-8i is likely to be cancelled, despite Keesjes numerous efforts to convince us otherwise. I assume you mean the 748i, since CX already has the 748F on order.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 1):
I think if CX decide they need a VLA then the A388 is a nailed on cert. I dont give the 748i much of a chance I'm afraid.

My money is on both the 748i as the A380-900 for CX. However, given the current financial climate, I'm afraid Airbus may postpone the A389...

In that case, yes, I believe the A388 with improved range will be a certainty for CX. What that will mean for the 748i, I'm not sure... If Airbus offers the A388 for the same price as Boeing does for the 748i (which, according to rumours, they did in the BA situation), no need for CX to order the 748i...



146,318/19/20/21,AB6,332,343,345,388,722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9,742,74E,744,752,762,763,772,77E,773,77W,AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E90,F50/7
User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 6, posted (6 years 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 11340 times:



Quoting Frigatebird (Reply 5):
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 1):
I think if CX decide they need a VLA then the A388 is a nailed on cert. I dont give the 748i much of a chance I'm afraid.

My money is on both the 748i as the A380-900 for CX. However, given the current financial climate, I'm afraid Airbus may postpone the A389...

In that case, yes, I believe the A388 with improved range will be a certainty for CX. What that will mean for the 748i, I'm not sure... If Airbus offers the A388 for the same price as Boeing does for the 748i (which, according to rumours, they did in the BA situation), no need for CX to order the 748i...

I just do not think CX would go for the inferior plane, even if it was a few million dollars cheaper. The A388 has basically the same range, much better CASM, better re-sale value once they are done with it and a useful upper deck that can accommodate a worthwhile premium offering. If, as you say, Airbus pitch the A380 at a similar price to Boeing's tender for the 748i, then CX would be looney not to.



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (6 years 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 11337 times:

Not a chance, Never!

Boeing 777-300ER is all they ever need.

Case closed. Full stop. end of discussion.

 Wink


Tony Tyler CEO CX

If Airbus stretched the plane to fit more passengers, or increased its take-off weight to extend its range we might buy. Either of those options would make it more economic and more competitive from our point of view.

http://www.reuters.com/article/tnBas...idUSN3022007420071030?pageNumber=1

I think during the last 2 years it has become more and more likely the -900 will be the next version before the Freighter and extented range variants.


User currently offlineKingsford From Belgium, joined Nov 2003, 427 posts, RR: 3
Reply 8, posted (6 years 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 11265 times:

Do we have any 'picture' of the A388 ?

User currently offlineFrigatebird From Netherlands, joined Jun 2008, 1701 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (6 years 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 11224 times:



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 6):
I just do not think CX would go for the inferior plane, even if it was a few million dollars cheaper. The A388 has basically the same range, much better CASM, better re-sale value once they are done with it and a useful upper deck that can accommodate a worthwhile premium offering. If, as you say, Airbus pitch the A380 at a similar price to Boeing's tender for the 748i, then CX would be looney not to.

No doubt about it: performance wise the A388 is superior in all respects. Not sure about resale value, it's a bit early for that  Wink But that's never gonna be a deciding factor. So, indeed, Boeing needs to offer the 748i at a much more attractive price than the A380. The fact that CX already has ordered the 748F helps the 748i case though - so much, that I honestly believe that if Boeing doesn't manage to sell it to CX, they won't sell it to any airline any more  cry 



146,318/19/20/21,AB6,332,343,345,388,722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9,742,74E,744,752,762,763,772,77E,773,77W,AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E90,F50/7
User currently offlineMartynS From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2008, 35 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (6 years 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 11223 times:



Quoting N14AZ (Reply 3):
My only hope was QF. Does anybody know when they will have their anniversary? There were some speculations that they would announce some follow-up orders.

I believe it was last weekend. They announced some of the future names to be used on
their A380s, but no follow-up order that I can see.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/travel...ming/2008/11/16/1226770249767.html

Martyn



Flown with BR (BCal), KL, AA, BA, AF, NW, DL, PR, EK, SQ, HM, BY, GO, UA, U2, BD, LH, KM, 5J
User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 11, posted (6 years 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 11207 times:



Quoting MartynS (Reply 10):
Quoting N14AZ (Reply 3):
My only hope was QF. Does anybody know when they will have their anniversary? There were some speculations that they would announce some follow-up orders.

I believe it was last weekend. They announced some of the future names to be used on
their A380s, but no follow-up order that I can see.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/travel...ming/2008/11/16/1226770249767.html

Martyn

They've got a bunch of A350-10s to order yet so I wouldnt worry - it will come soon enough.



What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineRJ111 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (6 years 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 11196 times:

CX will probably be interested in seeing how the A380 performs on the longer more demanding routes and if any MTOW culminating in a range/payload profile increase will come to light.

User currently offlineArt From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3387 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (6 years 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 11085 times:



Quoting Frigatebird (Reply 9):
Boeing needs to offer the 748i at a much more attractive price than the A380. The fact that CX already has ordered the 748F helps the 748i case though - so much, that I honestly believe that if Boeing doesn't manage to sell it to CX, they won't sell it to any airline any more

An order for the 748-i would be an indication that it could be a viable alternative to the A380 for airlines also operating 748F's. An order for the A380 would indeed make the outlook very bleak for the 748-i. Given the number of 744's that will hit 20 years in age over the next few years, I still find it difficult to believe that Boeing would not be able to induce any other airline to order the 748-i as a 744 replacement.


User currently offlineJfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8453 posts, RR: 7
Reply 14, posted (6 years 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 11046 times:
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Quoting Art (Reply 13):
An order for the 748-i would be an indication that it could be a viable alternative to the A380 for airlines also operating 748F's. An order for the A380 would indeed make the outlook very bleak for the 748-i. Given the number of 744's that will hit 20 years in age over the next few years, I still find it difficult to believe that Boeing would not be able to induce any other airline to order the 748-i as a 744 replacement.

The world's A380 operators will operate the A380 to HKG, I just can't see Cathay without the WhaleJet. BA will operate two daily from LHR alone, so CX has to answer. The American airline probably will not operate the A380 soon but in 5 years United may have no choice but to join the A380 Club. Air France and Lufthansa will fly it from Europe as will Qantas from SYD. CX's 30 77W's are great planes but limited in capacity, but those 777 can fly nonstop to Toronto & JFK.


User currently offlineAbba From Denmark, joined Jun 2005, 1376 posts, RR: 2
Reply 15, posted (6 years 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 10980 times:



Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 14):
CX's 30 77W's are great planes but limited in capacity, but those 777 can fly nonstop to Toronto & JFK.

Will the 380 post 2012 version not be able to do the same as well?


User currently offlineSeabosdca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5757 posts, RR: 6
Reply 16, posted (6 years 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 10964 times:

Quoting Frigatebird (Reply 9):
so much, that I honestly believe that if Boeing doesn't manage to sell it to CX, they won't sell it to any airline any more

That may be a little dramatic, but it contains a kernel of truth -- CX's network is one where the 748I is at its most competitive compared with the A380.

Unfortunately for Boeing, improvements to the A380 (such as an A389 or A388R) are likely to make the A380 more attractive on all routes where the operator can fill it.

748 flight tests can't come soon enough for Boeing. If they discover there is unexpectedly good performance or room for improvement, then the aircraft may have a good future. If not, they will have to discount heavily to sell any more -- and, given that the 748F rules the roost and will sell enough copies to keep the line busy, they probably won't be inclined to discount just to keep the 748I in business.

[Edited 2008-11-19 05:50:27]

User currently offlineKhobar From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 2379 posts, RR: 4
Reply 17, posted (6 years 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 10909 times:



Quoting Seabosdca (Reply 16):
748 flight tests can't come soon enough for Boeing. If they discover there is unexpectedly good performance or room for improvement, then the aircraft may have a good future. If not, they will have to discount heavily to sell any more -- and, given that the 748F rules the roost and will sell enough copies to keep the line busy, they probably won't be inclined to discount just to keep the 748I in business.

According to the latest out of Boeing, the 748 is suffering from weight gain and they are delaying delivery to try to deal with it. Ordinarily I'd say the chances of it performing beyond expectations are slight to none.


User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10169 posts, RR: 97
Reply 18, posted (6 years 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 10895 times:
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Quoting Abba (Reply 15):
Will the 380 post 2012 version not be able to do the same as well?

Why the "post 2012" version?
The pre- 2012 version of the A380 should be able to operate any sector the 77W can.

The Range/Payload charts suggest that in that 7 000Nm - 7 500Nm "nominal" range "window" (e.g. HKG-YYZ), the current (pre-2012) A380 should be able to operate at those ranges with about a 55% - 60% greater payload than the 773ER.
The "post 2012" version just increases that to around 70% - 75% more payload...  Wink

Rgds


User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (6 years 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 10877 times:

Quoting Art (Reply 13):
I still find it difficult to believe that Boeing would not be able to induce any other airline to order the 748-i as a 744 replacement.



Quoting Frigatebird (Reply 9):
I honestly believe that if Boeing doesn't manage to sell it to CX, they won't sell it to any airline any more

   There is no way Boeing is going to end the Boeing 747-8i. They have already sold 100 747-8's! Simply because :

   Hardly any investment are neccessary to develop & build the 747-8i
   The 20 aircraft launch order was already enough to reach break even / pay for everything
   The -8i puts pressure on the market, preventing Airbus making any money with the A380
   The A380 is no competition, the Boeing 747-8i is really in a different segment
   Most investments for the 747-8i have allready be done, they only have to set up production now.
   Lufthansa desperately needs the -8i to replace the 747-400 inbetween the A346 and A380.
   Those VIP customers rule the world & you don't want to make them angry..
   The 747-8i's sister, the 8F proved a tempting alternative to the 70% cheaper 747-400F conversions.
   The 747-8F's large margins easily cover all - 8i development & production costs.
   There are plenty skilled engineers already paid for, so they might use them as well !

On top of that there is a large group of Airlines sitting on the fence just waiting to jump, the market looks rosy. http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo...eneral_aviation/read.main/2883384/

EK is almost there. (they have ordered the -8F already!)


image : Henry Lam (kaktusdigital)

[Edited 2008-11-19 06:21:47]

User currently offlineLondonCity From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2008, 1517 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (6 years 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 10838 times:

Quoting Jfk777 [Reply 14}

"CX's 30 &&Ws are great planes but limited in capacity"
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

There's also the consideration that the 777's premium cabins don't offer the same ambience as you would find on the A380.

CX is a major player on some of the world's most important business routes and, because excutives booking first and business class demand the best value from the high fares they pay, it's logical that CX will eventually order some A380s.


User currently offlineFrigatebird From Netherlands, joined Jun 2008, 1701 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (6 years 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 10730 times:



Quoting Keesje (Reply 19):
Quoting Frigatebird (Reply 9):
I honestly believe that if Boeing doesn't manage to sell it to CX, they won't sell it to any airline any more

There is no way Boeing is going to end the Boeing 747-8i.

However, I don't believe Boeing will subsequently kill the whole 748i program and cancel the LH order and the BBJ orders - if they get a snub from CX. Slight difference  Yeah sure



146,318/19/20/21,AB6,332,343,345,388,722,732/3/4/5/G/8,9,742,74E,744,752,762,763,772,77E,773,77W,AT4/7,ATP,CRK,E90,F50/7
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31240 posts, RR: 85
Reply 22, posted (6 years 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 10498 times:
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CX didn't need the extra range the 747-400ER offered enough times to make it worth buying, so the extra range the 747-8I offers would be of no interest to them.

The A380-800 has proven it can fly to HKG from the US West Coast without issue, and that was what was giving SQ and CX (especially) pause. So nothing is stopping CX from choosing the A380-800 once they feel their traffic patterns are appropriate for it because it is the better plane when either can perform the same mission.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31240 posts, RR: 85
Reply 23, posted (6 years 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 10465 times:
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Quoting LondonCity (Reply 20):
There's also the consideration that the 777's premium cabins don't offer the same ambience as you would find on the A380.

I've flown SQ on the A388 and the 77W and I found them to be effectively identical. The 77W feels more roomy (higher ceilings) while the A388 is quieter. I was booked in First Class on both, but I did sit in Business and Economy for about 15 minutes each on both planes to try them out (thanks to the crew for letting me roam around).

So for me, I would not go out of my way to choose one over the other when traveling in First or Business.


User currently offlineManfredj From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 1132 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (6 years 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 10392 times:



Quoting Seabosdca (Reply 16):
Unfortunately for Boeing, improvements to the A380 (such as an A389 or A388R) are likely to make the A380 more attractive on all routes where the operator can fill it.

If they ever become a reality, you see the 380 suffers from the same problem the 748 does...sales.

Quoting Khobar (Reply 17):
Ordinarily I'd say the chances of it performing beyond expectations are slight to none.

I'm not sure this is a realistic outlook. The problem is, they are trying to compete with the 380 figures, so they have a slim margin to work with. The 748 will be efficient regardles, but if it's not MORE so than the 380, the airplane won't sell as well.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 19):
There is no way Boeing is going to end the Boeing 747-8i. They have already sold 100 747-8's! Simply because :

ERRR, ummm WHAT! Is this a joke Keesje? You wave the red flag of defeat? This must be some sort of reverse psychology? What gives?



757: The last of the best
25 DLPMMM : But you think every airline should order the A380. Yup. I could also see a version of the A350, but that is a few years off from production yet. I've
26 YULWinterSkies : ... if they really needed a VLA, which may prove right in the future. How much bigger is the 748i compared to a 773 fitted with 10-abreast in Y? Does
27 Astuteman : Although I wouldn't give up the ghost just yet. We were saying pretty much the same thing about the A380 3 years ago. In fact, some A-netters were WR
28 Frigatebird : I have. He liked to have even more capacity or a bit more range, but on which aspects do you see him saying the 748i outperforms the A380?
29 CHRISBA777ER : So have I mate and I bet my sources are better than yours. No i dont. I happen to think that the upcoming OZ order is a mistake and it is too much pl
30 AFGMEL : This got my attention. I would happily thank the crew for service, but when I fly in J I often walk around Y for exercise. It wouldn't occur to me th
31 Post contains images Stitch : In general, I have never had a problem moving from a premium cabin to a "junior" cabin during a flight. But as a matter of courtesy, I let the FAs kn
32 United Airline : We will definitely see something bigger than the B 777-300ER in CX's fleet. Either A 380 and/or B 747-8. I suppose they will order up to 5 A 380s for
33 Brilondon : You feel that the 787-8i is an inferior aircrft because... The palne has not even flown or been produced yet you are already calling it inferior. Ano
34 AustrianZRH : I think that wouldn't make sense. If your estimation is correct about the numbers, I rather think they'd go either 10/10 or stick with one type entir
35 BrightCedars : There's a topic (no source, consider it fake) on Luchtzak that CX are about to order 12 A380s for delivery starting in 2012. We'll see what comes out
36 JerseyFlyer : I agree - the whole mentality in Hong Kong is to have the latest technology
37 Cerecl : Presumably you mean 747-8i? LH stated a while ago that A380 is a 3 litre/seat/mile aircraft, while 748i is a 3.3 Litre aircraft with LH's seat number
38 Jacobin777 : Majour assumption there. LH was offered the A380 at "abuse the plane prices for a while until growth develops" yet they still chose the B748-I as it
39 DLPMMM : Who said that they have to order the 748i? They might go the way of the Japanese and make the 77W or a version of the A350 the largest aircraft in th
40 Astuteman : And cargo carrying space........ Airlines with a passenger/cargo mix more biased towards cargo should find the 748i more attractive, than those carry
41 Stitch : But even then, it has to be based on cargo volume and not weight. An A380-800 matches a 747-400 in available revenue cargo volume when you take into
42 Post contains links DLPMMM : I bet you are wrong. How about from the VP of network planniing of ANA quoted in ATW online yesterday? The carrier also will postpone its decision on
43 Stitch : Plans change. That doesn't mean that the original plan wasn't valid up until the moment it did change. I admit to not know where NH could really effec
44 Jfk777 : NRT to JFK, LAX, IAD, SFO or ORD are all 773ER ANA destinations. JFK and LAX are the top two. The other issue is ANA's current 777-300ER have about 7
45 Lightsaber : I remain convinced that the A389 will be the predominant model of the A380. But this is predicated on Airbus and the engine vendors improving perform
46 Astuteman : 89m ????? Yep. One of the reasons... Rgds
47 Keesje : I guess everyone 5 inches of additional knee space is the other ?
48 JAL : I think that once the economy picks up again, won't be surprise to see CX order the A380 or the B747-8 maybe even both!
49 NorCal : 89m, with GE-NX/Trent XWB, and a higher MTOW, with equal or greater range than the current A380 would pretty much be the coolest plane ever.
50 Astuteman : And that's the other one... Rgds
51 Post contains images EK413 : Qantas just celebrated their 88th Anniversary... They will be keeping a close watch on the SYD-LAX-MEL service which appear to be smooth sailing for
52 BoogyJay : Cabin design requires lots of engineering and expensive specific systems. I'll be very surprised to see a source for that but if you have one, don't
53 Astuteman : I suspect you're missing a large slice of Keejse irony, my friend..... (I'm sure he'll correct me if I'm wrong.. ) Rgds
54 Stitch : While Keesje is being ironic, I can answer two of your questions. But it's based on the 747-400, 767-400ER and 777 systems and leverages them, as well
55 ERJ135 : The 747-8i may not have a huge lifespan ahead of it, however it will see the light of day. I am involved in a small way with the aircraft and can tel
56 Cerecl : Touche. I am not privy to the operation data of CX therefore can only offer circumstantial and anecdotal evidence. Maybe someone in the know can help
57 Astuteman : FWIW, by my estimation, an 89m A380 with the Trent XWB as a prime mover would need to come in around 635 tonnes MTOW, at which weight my crystal ball
58 Frigatebird : Sounds more like an A380-1000 to me! May even put the AN-225 in the shade Brave airline to say: "Yes, that's the one we have been waiting for...."
59 Astuteman : Me too 1 100 pax in "standard" (i.e. 10Y main, 8Y upper, 31" ish pitch) all-Y? That's what I call CASM... Rgds
60 Jacobin777 : I don't disagree with you on that....IIRC, LH did get a very nice discount on the B748I....IIRC, they paid only 60% of list prices. Regarding the "se
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