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Will We Ever See Another 737 Version From AA?  
User currently offlineSXDFC From United States of America, joined Dec 2007, 2441 posts, RR: 23
Posted (6 years 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 6740 times:

As I was browsing through the site, I recall another thread that mentioned the possibilities of American getting the 739ER. I wondered if we would ever see the 900ER or perhaps maybe even the 737-700 in the current AA fleet. So I would like to know what you think the odds of this happening are?


ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
38 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21580 posts, RR: 59
Reply 1, posted (6 years 3 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 6720 times:

I doubt it. 738s would replace the MD80s and oldest 757s until a 737 replacement comes in the future.


Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineGigneil From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 16347 posts, RR: 85
Reply 2, posted (6 years 3 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 6706 times:

I've always wondered why it seems only US, CO, and AS found value in the larger variants of their narrowbody families...

Now that I think about it, though, AA, UA, and DL all have so many 757s that they may just not require more lift in that size class until the 757 truly does die off.

NS


User currently offlineUA76Heavy From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 181 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (6 years 3 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 6696 times:

I believe AA was looking at the 739s as a domestic replacement for their 752s. IIRC the discussion appeared in the same AWST article about their 789 purchase.

User currently offlineDeltaL1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9700 posts, RR: 14
Reply 4, posted (6 years 3 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 6683 times:



Quoting Gigneil (Reply 2):
Now that I think about it, though, AA, UA, and DL all have so many 757s that they may just not require more lift in that size class until the 757 truly does die off.

Thats is. We will likely not see a 739ER order by DL/AA or A321 by UA just because the large number of 757s and the lack of a true replacement. no need to replace them. take good care of them and wait for Y1



yep.
User currently offlineOyKIE From Norway, joined Jan 2006, 2755 posts, RR: 4
Reply 5, posted (6 years 3 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 6588 times:



Quoting UA76Heavy (Reply 3):
I believe AA was looking at the 739s as a domestic replacement for their 752s. IIRC the discussion appeared in the same AWST article about their 789 purchase.

I remember reading the same thing.

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 2):
Now that I think about it, though, AA, UA, and DL all have so many 757s that they may just not require more lift in that size class until the 757 truly does die off.

Are you sure? I believe they might get a good price if they sells them to FedEx. The 739ER is more fuel efficient than the 752ER on allot of sectors. Plus the benefit of downsizing. And if they order some 739ER they migth replace the A300 with 752 on some routes



Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
User currently offlineQQflyboy From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 2297 posts, RR: 13
Reply 6, posted (6 years 3 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 6536 times:

Whether or not we get them is anyone's guess, but Arpey talked about the 739 a couple of weeks ago during a conference, or during an earnings report. Can't remember which. So, it's possible, especially since 76 738s will be coming online in the next two years.


The views expressed are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect my employer’s views.
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21580 posts, RR: 59
Reply 7, posted (6 years 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 6243 times:



Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 4):
Thats is. We will likely not see a 739ER order by DL/AA or A321 by UA just because the large number of 757s and the lack of a true replacement. no need to replace them. take good care of them and wait for Y1

I do believe that the oldest 757s will have to be replaced, but because DL and AA have such large 757 fleets, not all of these 757s are being used to the aircraft's full potential. Many are merely there for range that the MD80 can't provide, but the 738 can.

That's why I would expect that the 738 will be used to replace 757s on some routes as those 757s are retired and sold for freighter conversion.

Originally, the 738 was AAs and DLs 727 replacement. Now it will have to act as the MD80 replacement until something better comes along (even though it's too much plane for some of those routes in terms of ability) and as a 757 replacement on some routes even though it's not quite enough plane in terms of capacity.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineKeny156 From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 58 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (6 years 3 weeks 3 days ago) and read 6014 times:



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 7):
That's why I would expect that the 738 will be used to replace 757s on some routes as those 757s are retired and sold for freighter conversion.

AA has evaluted its 757 fleet and expects to get another 20 years on the aircraft. That is the reason for the MAUI (Mid-life Avionics Upgrade Initiative) and the CIP (Cabin Improvement Project) and the subfleet of 18 IFS aircraft (6 by this summer). With these investments it would not be wise to retire or sell them off; we have leased or mortgaged most of them with our leases starting to end in 2014. I don't foresee them replacing the 757s for a while as our oldest one will be 20 next year. And they project them to reach 35-40 years old. The main issue will be what replaces the A300 on the latin america market. If you run the 757s in there, you drastically reduce your cargo capacity. But that is another topic.

My opinion is that there is not a route that the 739 is needed while the 757 are in good working order. And until fuel starts getting above $120 per barrel, and with all of the modifications to the 757 we have done, I don't see the 739s in our near future.


User currently offlineDL767captain From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 2539 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (6 years 3 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 5929 times:



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 7):
Originally, the 738 was AAs and DLs 727 replacement. Now it will have to act as the MD80 replacement until something better comes along (even though it's too much plane for some of those routes in terms of ability) and as a 757 replacement on some routes even though it's not quite enough plane in terms of capacity.

I think you're right, the 738 will be the best MD-80 replacement right now until the next gen 737 is available. i can see AA DL and CO all jumping on the first delivery slots for new generations of the 737.

DL did however order some 737-700s which i didn't expect so i guess there could be a possible 739 order but they seem to be happy with the 738. The 738 can work on some routes that don't really need a 757, ive seen a 738 on the SAN-ATL route a few times which is surprising to me since it used to always be 757s and 767s


User currently offlineAAR90 From United States of America, joined Jan 2000, 3494 posts, RR: 46
Reply 10, posted (6 years 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 5878 times:



Quoting QQflyboy (Reply 6):
Whether or not we get them is anyone's guess, but Arpey talked about the 739 a couple of weeks ago during a conference, or during an earnings report.

Talk from the pilot schoolhouse is... not a chance [but we're pilots so what do we know]. The 739 economics is not significant enough over the 738 to warrant a sub-fleet and the tail clearance on takeoff is just 5 inches. While a lot of the route planning portion of the Simplification Plan will be going away with the doubling of the 738 fleet size, the savings from minimizing the number of different fleets will not. And the 738 fleet has always been the leader in maintaining one model/one configuration for its fleet --the original birds will be reconfigured to match the new delivery configuration during overhaul.



*NO CARRIER* -- A Naval Aviator's worst nightmare!
User currently offlineAA1818 From Trinidad and Tobago, joined Feb 2006, 3437 posts, RR: 4
Reply 11, posted (6 years 3 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 5652 times:



Quoting SXDFC (Thread starter):
maybe even the 737-700 in the current AA fleet.

I remember reading on here (don't know how true it si) that the 738 and 737 have similar operating costs over a certain range. Obviously the 737 has more range than the 738, but over the 738s range they have similar costs while the 738 offers more seats- just makes sense if you don't need the extra range.

AA1818



“The moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease for ever to be able to do it.” J.M. Barrie (Peter Pan)
User currently onlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 23299 posts, RR: 20
Reply 12, posted (6 years 3 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 5557 times:



Quoting Keny156 (Reply 8):
My opinion is that there is not a route that the 739 is needed while the 757 are in good working order. And until fuel starts getting above $120 per barrel, and with all of the modifications to the 757 we have done, I don't see the 739s in our near future.

The 752 is really too much airplane for ORD-STL, or even on a route like ORD-MIA or STL-SEA. AA could get rid of half of their 752s and still have a decent-sized fleet. It seems like the 739 makes sense for a lot of missions. That does not mean that there is no place for the 752 in AA's fleet, but the 752 is overkill for a lot of the missions on which it is deployed.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offline777STL From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 3766 posts, RR: 3
Reply 13, posted (6 years 3 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 5542 times:



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 12):
The 752 is really too much airplane for ORD-STL, or even on a route like ORD-MIA or STL-SEA. AA could get rid of half of their 752s and still have a decent-sized fleet.

I wouldn't go that far. 752s are a hot commodity in AA's fleet - especially now that the A300s are leaving the fleet. If AA was really "wasting" the 752s flying those routes, you can bet AA would have replaced them.



PHX based
User currently onlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 23299 posts, RR: 20
Reply 14, posted (6 years 3 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 5526 times:



Quoting 777STL (Reply 13):
If AA was really "wasting" the 752s flying those routes, you can bet AA would have replaced them.

Why? They need the capacity, and a 752 probably burns less fuel than a S80 and a CR7. Historically, there has not been a good alternative. The advent of the 739 has changed that.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33272 posts, RR: 71
Reply 15, posted (6 years 3 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 5451 times:



Quoting Keny156 (Reply 8):
The main issue will be what replaces the A300 on the latin america market. If you run the 757s in there, you drastically reduce your cargo capacity. But that is another topic.

Not an issue anymore. The A300s are being replaced by short-haul 763 flying in September. It's already bookable.



a.
User currently offlineLONGisland89 From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 741 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (6 years 3 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 5340 times:



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 12):
AA could get rid of half of their 752s and still have a decent-sized fleet.

No airline in their right mind would give up their 757s, especially AA.


User currently onlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 23299 posts, RR: 20
Reply 17, posted (6 years 3 weeks 2 days ago) and read 5185 times:



Quoting LONGisland89 (Reply 16):
No airline in their right mind would give up their 757s, especially AA.

Do they really have enough routes that require the range or runway performance of a 752 to keep 120 of them around?



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineJustPlaneNutz From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 553 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (6 years 3 weeks 2 days ago) and read 5145 times:



Quoting LONGisland89 (Reply 16):
No airline in their right mind would give up their 757s, especially AA.

Yet, Arpey specifically mentioned just that on the 3rd Q earnings call. After talking about the A-300 and S-80 retirement schedules, he was asked if any other retirements were planned. He said the 757's were candidates to be replaced by the 739ER. His quote was something like "the savings are within rounding error to you guys, but are meaningfull across the fleet."


User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21580 posts, RR: 59
Reply 19, posted (6 years 3 weeks 2 days ago) and read 5118 times:

And we have to remember that with AA retiring A300s and eventually 762s, the 763s and 757s will be stretched thinner. 787s will help in that regard, but also 757s are taking over some A300 routes. Where do those 757s come from? Other routes where the MD80 might not have enough range. Which means by a mad hatter style "clean cups, move down" mechanism, 738s will replace 757s on some routes.

I'm still not sold that AA would bite on the 739ER at this late stage, though. It would really depend on what Boeing is telling them about the future. A fleet of 763+738+757 covers their current medium haul needs well.

This is different than an airline like CO, where they have fewer 757s, far fewer widebodies, and need the 757 range for international ops, and the 739ER capacity for domestic routes.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineF9Animal From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 5120 posts, RR: 28
Reply 20, posted (6 years 3 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 4872 times:



Quoting QQflyboy (Reply 6):
Whether or not we get them is anyone's guess, but Arpey talked about the 739 a couple of weeks ago during a conference, or during an earnings report. Can't remember which. So, it's possible, especially since 76 738s will be coming online in the next two years.

Very interesting. I would love to see AA get some 900's in their fleet. The 900 is just such a neat looking airplane to the eyes.



I Am A Different Animal!!
User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 20334 posts, RR: 59
Reply 21, posted (6 years 3 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 4660 times:

I think AA is going to have to decide whether to hang on to the 752's and wait for the 737RS or whether it makes sense to order a 73G variant, and then have B introduce the 737RS, thus making those new planes prematurely obsolete.

The question for the crystal ball then becomes how long it will take for the 737RS to launch. If Boeing can have the new birds ready for delivery within 10 years, then my guess is that it might make sense to wait. If it's going to be more than 15, then AA might make an order soon.

That is, if Boeing doesn't go out of business, which seems to be the direction they're currently headed unless they can pull their collective heads out and start delivering planes again.


User currently offlineWedgetail737 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 5950 posts, RR: 6
Reply 22, posted (6 years 3 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 4585 times:
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Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 19):
It would really depend on what Boeing is telling them about the future.

I believe the 737RS of any kind is further off than everyone thinks. If Boeing is having a difficult time mastering their 787, what makes you think the 737RS program would be in Boeing's business case of the near future? Boeing has mentioned that it does NOT make business sense to sell the 737RS.

I think there is a good possibility that AA may purchase 737NG's in the future. Their 757's, some 763's and their MD-80's are getting pretty old.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 21):
That is, if Boeing doesn't go out of business, which seems to be the direction they're currently headed unless they can pull their collective heads out and start delivering planes again.

Are you serious? Do you have any concept of how what Boeing produces outside of their Commercial Airplane programs?

Yes...Boeing has had some stumbling blocks in the past and still have some hurdles to jump before getting back on its feet. Boeing is in much better shape than EADS...not beating up EADS at all, it's just reality.

In the meantime, I suggest you do a little more research on Boeing products before making any such judgements.


User currently offlineAACUN From Mexico, joined Jan 2004, 562 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (6 years 3 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 4559 times:
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I really dont see AA getting rid of the 757 right now..... They are investing too much money into updating them.......... Even though yesturday our captain was saying that they will be replaced soon with 737's. I found that odd and asked him why and he said it had something to do with the contract on the engines.......... AA's original contract (I would guess warranty) expires this coming year and it will be very costly to AA to maintain the fleet..... So this is why the rumor is going around that the 757 may start being replaced as of next year with the 737........ what series is another subject......

And again.. this came from my 757 captain on my flight yesturday. So take it for what its worth.


User currently offlineFlyDeltaJets87 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (6 years 3 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 4541 times:



Quoting Gigneil (Reply 2):
I've always wondered why it seems only US, CO, and AS found value in the larger variants of their narrowbody families...

Depends on how you look at it. DL had the 737-800s when they still operated 737-200s and 737-300s. NW has both the 757-200 and the 757-300, and three versions of the DC-9: the DC-9-30, the DC-9-40, and the DC-9-50.


25 AAR90 : In all honesty... I don't think it is worth very much. AA's 757 engines have been off warranty for more than a decade (at least) with all overhaul/ma
26 Wedgetail737 : It all means that the airline industry can be unpredictable. I would say that it's possible for AA to get other types of aircraft like the 739-ER, esp
27 777STL : The 739 has been around for a while now, somehow I think if AA thought it were prudent to replace 757s with 739s, they would have done so by now. The
28 AAR90 : Which domestic routes can the 739 fly that the 738 can not --and hasn't already? Which L.A. routes are you thinking about that the 739 could fly that
29 DfwRevolution : Tail strikes? Is it a contest amongst AA pilots to find the most absurd way to sabotage the airline's growth? It just doesn't work that way. I can pr
30 N276AASTT : I'd love to see an AA 737-700 order for the thinner routes. Phase out the older 757's when their time's up and replace them with the 737-900's on the
31 EBJ1248650 : I'm not as in tune with airline operations as many a.netters are, but if one engine maintenance contract is about to expire and it's not going to be
32 AAR90 : 20+ inches of tail clearance vs. 5 inches of tail clearance. It doesn't take a genius to figure out you're going to have significant issues about the
33 FXramper : AA will continue to replace it's MD80 fleet with B738 and will take delivery of the Boeing replacement for the 737 in the future.
34 Wedgetail737 : I'm not questioning either aircraft's capabilities. I was simply proposing that the 739-ER could provide a higher passenger count and payloads for th
35 Post contains links DfwRevolution : Where do you keep pulling this figure from? The pitch needed for a 739 to strike the runway is about 1 degree different than the 738. In a normal tak
36 Yyz717 : In an article about AA in Aviation Week magazine recently, an AA C-level exec stated AA's active consideration of the 739ER. I can't recall which issu
37 AAR90 : True, but the cost for creating and operating a sub-fleet is huge which drives the decision process toward a single model of plane that can do the jo
38 BrianDromey : It would seem that way, but AA's 757's are not really that old and they are spending a lot of money refurbing and upgrading them. Surely this suggest
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