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How Many Airlines Left In Europe In 2-3 Years?  
User currently offlineAirlittoral From France, joined Sep 2006, 108 posts, RR: 0
Posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 4081 times:

As the airline industry is currently experiencing a wave of consolidation, I was wondering what the european skies may look like in a few years. There are probably a number of national/legacy carriers which will be absorbed either because they are struggling financially or because they don't have the necessary critical mass to survive in an increasingly competitive environment.

A number of mergers are either being processed, or in the cards, or possible:

BA-IB (+QF)
LH-OS, LH-BD, LH-SN, LH-SK
FR-EI
...just to name a few

Who can we reasonably believe will still be there a couple of years from now (as an independent entity)?
I see BA, LH, FR, AF...

Would be interesting to have the insight of airline analysts.

Thanks

14 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineBlueSky1976 From Poland, joined Jul 2004, 1896 posts, RR: 5
Reply 1, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 4031 times:

Lufthansa + subsidiaries
Air France KLM + "new" Alitalia
British Airways + subsidiaries
easyJet
Ryanair
W!zzair
CSA
SAS less subsidiaries
Finnair
+ some other small "national" carriers (Aerosvit, Croatia, etc.)

LOT, Olympic, Malev, JAT = gone.



STOP TERRORRUSSIA!!!
User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4401 posts, RR: 2
Reply 2, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 3995 times:

I still see the Air Berlin Group as another independant carrier, TAP maybe too.

User currently offlineGlobeEx From Germany, joined Aug 2007, 742 posts, RR: 5
Reply 3, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 3995 times:

LH: LH (+Italy) SN, OS, LX, BMI, Eurowings, Germanwings Air Dolomit, etc.
AF-KLM
BA
TK
IB (with BA?)
EI
TAP
SK
Finnair
LOT (taken over)
EI
FR
Easyjet
AB
TK (if you count it as European)
AZ (in its new style maybe with Air One)
Czech Airlines
(some other airlines from OE)
...and Charterairlines

[Edited 2008-12-04 03:59:57]


As you may presently yourself be fully made aware of, my grammar sucks.
User currently offlineAirLittoral From France, joined Sep 2006, 108 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 3890 times:



Quoting GlobeEx (Reply 3):
LH: LH (+Italy) SN, OS, LX, BMI, Eurowings, Germanwings Air Dolomit, etc.
AF-KLM
BA
TK
IB (with BA?)
EI
TAP
SK
Finnair
LOT (taken over)
EI
FR
Easyjet
AB
TK (if you count it as European)
AZ (in its new style maybe with Air One)
Czech Airlines
(some other airlines from OE)
...and Charterairlines

Not quite sure about EI, SK, FI, IB and AZ (even under its new form). TAP? Aren't they struggling? CSA? I would think they will be bought by AF-KLM at some stage...


User currently offlineRichcandy From UK - England, joined Aug 2001, 728 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 3769 times:

Hi

I am not an airline analyst so my views are just from someone who worked in the Airline industry for close to 20 years.

The first thing that I would say is that it all depends on the credit crunch, if things are difficult then airlines will be in a hurry to merge. If they are not then I still think it will happen just that it will take longer than 2-3 years.

If I had to guess I would say that most airline mergers in Europe at least for the next few years will be like Air France's take over of KLM. In that they are really one airline but they operate as two brands.

Another thing to remember is that the European Union is not one country and there may be issues with an airline from one country trying to merge or take over an airline in another. Example I am not sure that the people of the Republic of Ireland would be that happy if BA were to buy EI. Just as I am sure there are lots of Daily Mail readers in the United Kingdom who would not be happy if LH were to buy BA.

If the economic problems get worse then there is every chance that unemployment will start to rise. If that happens then in some countries the general public could start to ask why we let so many Europeans live here? This could lead to stong ani-EU views and what are currently minor political parties could start to win power. The end result could be countries leaving the EU and the single market. What would happen then to multi-national airlines?

We need to remember that for most of the past two or three hundred years lots of countries in Europe have hated each other. I am not saying that this is going to happen, all I am saying is that we have come a long way since 1951 and that when things get tough people tend to look more inward towards their own contry than overseas.



Alex


User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4401 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 3701 times:

Legally, Europe is one country, even if Daily Mail ignores this fact. The only problem for LH to take over BA would be the anti trust laws - of Europe.

User currently offlineRichcandy From UK - England, joined Aug 2001, 728 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 3578 times:



Quoting Burkhard (Reply 6):
Legally, Europe is one country

Hi

I am sorry but that is just not true. ( I am from the UK but live in France.)

I married my partner in the UK using a civil partnership. The French goverment do not see a civil partnership from the UK as valid in France. However they have their own civil partnership which is called pacte civil de solidarité (pacs). We thought fine if a UK civil partnership is not valid in France then we would set up a pacs. However guess what?? We can't do that as the French goverment says that if you have a UK civil partnership you can't enter into a pacs. So a UK civil partnership is valid only when it suites the French law.

Same with a will. Any property held in France can only be included in a French will. So if you live in Belgium and have a holiday home in France you have to set up two wills. A French one just for the holiday house in France and another for everything else.

The above examples are just everyday things that I have came across. Just think about how many other legal issues there are between European countries that there is no rule for.

The EU wanted all of Europe to use the metric system when it comes to weights and measures. British people refused to use the metric system, so what happend? shopkeepers got fined for selling goods in lb. This happened so much that the EU had to back track and let them continue.

Last point the United Kingdom has already set a limit on the number of people from Bulgaria and Romania that can come and live and work in the UK. So no freedom of movement for those EU citizens.

Does this look like the EU is one country.

Alex


User currently offlineANITIX87 From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 3308 posts, RR: 13
Reply 8, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 3526 times:
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Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 1):
Air France KLM + "new" Alitalia

Pretty tough since LH just bought the majority share in AZ and started LH-Italy.

Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 1):

LOT, Olympic, Malev, JAT = gone.

I disagree. I say LOT bought out by LH like LX, SN, and OS. Olympic owned by Qataris or Emirates, and Malev and JAT probably gone.

TIS



www.stellaryear.com: Canon EOS 50D, Canon EOS 5DMkII, Sigma 50mm 1.4, Canon 24-70 2.8L II, Canon 100mm 2.8L, Canon 100-4
User currently offlineANITIX87 From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 3308 posts, RR: 13
Reply 9, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 3524 times:
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Cannot edit above post. I didn't mean LH bought a majority stake, I meant a minority stake. I think they will start LH-Italy, buy the rest of AZ, and then merge Alitalia with LH-Italy.

TIS



www.stellaryear.com: Canon EOS 50D, Canon EOS 5DMkII, Sigma 50mm 1.4, Canon 24-70 2.8L II, Canon 100mm 2.8L, Canon 100-4
User currently offlineRAFVC10 From Spain, joined Sep 2005, 1980 posts, RR: 6
Reply 10, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 3493 times:
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My bet...

AF + UX

LH + SK + BD + JK

IB + BA

Regards,

Gerard



El dia que los gilipollas vuelen, no podremos ver la luz del sol!
User currently offlineVeeseeten From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2008, 169 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 3460 times:



Quoting Richcandy (Reply 5):
Just as I am sure there are lots of Daily Mail readers in the United Kingdom who would not be happy if LH were to buy BA

Haha! But to be honest, I'd think even Telegraph & Guardian readers alike would have a problem with this one!

I think with Malev, if push comes to shove, one of the OW carriers will step in to plug the hole, whether its BA, IB or AY. I also don't see SAS continuing as an independent carrier too far into the future, but it'd be interesting to see who would invest. I think that the competition authorities would have a problem with the most logical suitor, LH stepping in - so it'd be down to the likes of AF/KL or AY perhaps. Would have to discount IB, unless some decision was reached on them immediately divesting Spanair, given that IB controlling Spanair + Air Nostrum + Click + Vueling, would create something of a domestic monopoly.


User currently offlineBlueSky1976 From Poland, joined Jul 2004, 1896 posts, RR: 5
Reply 12, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 3451 times:



Quoting ANITIX87 (Reply 8):


Quoting BlueSky1976 (Reply 1):
Air France KLM + "new" Alitalia

Pretty tough since LH just bought the majority share in AZ and started LH-Italy.

I'm not sure where you have gotten this information from. Air France is buying a stake in the "new AZ", set up by CAI using APs assets and aircraft.
Lufthansa-Italy is a wholly-owned subsidiary of LH.

Quoting ANITIX87 (Reply 8):
I say LOT bought out by LH like LX, SN, and OS. Olympic owned by Qataris or Emirates, and Malev and JAT probably gone.

With Lufthansa purchase of Austrian, chances of LO being next on the LH shopping list are virtually none. The Polish Government tried to shop LO to the Arab investors, but they said 'no, thanks'. Besides, Lufthansa does not need LO anymore, as it is expanding on the Polish market.

If LO doesn't get privatized soon, it will vegetate for the next 2 - 3 years and then fail miserably and will shut down operations.

Malev is already on the life-support. So is JAT, as nobody wanted to buy them. Olympic - we'll see, but I don't expect them to last, unfortunately.



STOP TERRORRUSSIA!!!
User currently offlineAmricanShamrok From Ireland, joined May 2008, 2931 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 3367 times:



Quoting AirLittoral (Reply 4):
Not quite sure about EI

Aer Lingus may have a few minor financial difficulties but in no way like those incurred by Alitalia. EI will definately be around in 2/3 years - let's not forget, this time last year they were making healthy profits. It's only this year, with the oil etc. things have taken a small turn.



Shannon-Chicago
User currently offlineLH469 From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 44 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 3064 times:

LH, has a very strong business model which I doubt will falter during the next decade.

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