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F9 Results Fall In November  
User currently offlineEnilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7180 posts, RR: 13
Posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 3696 times:

F9 reported a relatively poor November with a 3.5% decrease in yield combining with a very small load factor increase +.4 points to result in a PRASM decrease of 3.1%.

This represents a PRASM fall of 3.9% from October 2008. Last year, PRASM increased by 8.2% in November from October. Year over year comparisons appear better than they really are because stage fell from 948 to 888, -6.3%. Adjusting for the stage change, PRASM fell almost 10% from the prior year.

Results were worse at Lynx. Lynx reported another new low for load factor with 53.6%. Previous lowest was 57.8% in the prior month. Lynx PRASM was 11.26 which was 8.3% lower the previous worst month (October) yet recorded.

Frontier's cash position should now be between $35 and $40 million (optimistically) based upon October as they must have lost at $10 million (probably more) during the month on the operating line. They need to raise cash shortly or they will run out of cash during January.

Given that Sun Country (which is in a much worse position) was able to raise cash in an announcement today, I expect F9 will be able to as well.

[Edited 2008-12-04 17:17:51]

33 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineSTLGph From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 9365 posts, RR: 26
Reply 1, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 3611 times:

That's just grim, especially with January and February coming up soon.


if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
User currently onlineFreequentFlier From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 900 posts, RR: 12
Reply 2, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 3579 times:

F9 needs to make it to February, when cash flow improves significantly due to increased bookings from Spring and Summer. If so, they'll be ok for the first half of 2009.

User currently offlineSTLGph From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 9365 posts, RR: 26
Reply 3, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 3528 times:



Quoting FreequentFlier (Reply 2):

that's hoping there are strong bookings next spring and summer.

this retail season looks to be absolutely dismal, which will no doubt have a trickle down effect onto suppliers.



if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25244 posts, RR: 85
Reply 4, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 3518 times:
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Quoting STLGph (Reply 3):
that's hoping there are strong bookings next spring and summer.

Here's hoping there are good bookings for Mexico season and the ski-ing destinations.

I was rather pleased with the RPM's over ASM's, given the general economy and the reports coming from some others.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineScottB From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6762 posts, RR: 32
Reply 5, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 3446 times:



Quoting FreequentFlier (Reply 2):
F9 needs to make it to February, when cash flow improves significantly due to increased bookings from Spring and Summer.

Unfortunately, I don't think forward bookings for spring and summer will be a big help to Frontier, since I believe their credit card holdback right now is pretty high (although it may not be 100%). Flying those spring and summer passengers will bring in the cash from the credit card purchases.

Quoting Enilria (Thread starter):
F9 reported a relatively poor November with a 3.5% decrease in yield combining with a very small load factor increase +.4 points to result in a PRASM decrease of 3.1%.

Almost all of the RASM and load factor numbers reported so far for November have been very poor. It's not surprising, of course, given the state of the economy. It's not good news by any stretch, but I didn't expect November RASM to improve for Frontier.

Quoting Enilria (Thread starter):
Frontier's cash position should now be between $35 and $40 million (optimistically) based upon October as they must have lost at $10 million (probably more) during the month on the operating line. They need to raise cash shortly or they will run out of cash during January.

The cash position probably looks better than you estimate given that two A319's were sold in November and that probably added $20-25 million to the unrestricted cash. There are two more being sold this month as well. My best guess is that they will end the year with $60-70 million in unrestricted cash, given the aircraft sales. I don't think this alone will be enough to get them through until next summer, barring a sudden improvement in the economy.

They will need to sell additional assets (presumably planes or Lynx) and/or shrink the airline further to reduce the cash burn rate. I think Frontier's management was blindsided (like just about everyone) by the depth of the recession and how very suddenly the bottom fell out. I think restructuring the airline to get out of bankruptcy was going to be challenging even with an economy that may be in the most severe downturn since the 1930's.


User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25244 posts, RR: 85
Reply 6, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 3439 times:
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Quoting ScottB (Reply 5):
(although it may not be 100%).

It is moving to 100%, I believe, as per the revised agreement with First Data, if not already there.

I am told that by the time we get to March/April, the balance will have been restored.

mariner

[Edited 2008-12-04 21:18:41]


aeternum nauta
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25356 posts, RR: 49
Reply 7, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 3435 times:

Enilria - thanks for the latest edition of the Frontier Chronicles.

btw- I believe some revenue for plane sales have not yet been booked, so the cash is not quite as pessimistic.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently onlineFreequentFlier From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 900 posts, RR: 12
Reply 8, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 3381 times:



Quoting ScottB (Reply 5):
The cash position probably looks better than you estimate given that two A319's were sold in November and that probably added $20-25 million to the unrestricted cash. There are two more being sold this month as well.

Have these latter two been accounted for in the schedule yet? F9 is running out of places to cut while maintaining an actual network hub in DEN!


User currently offlineStapleton From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 280 posts, RR: 2
Reply 9, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 3270 times:



Quoting Enilria (Thread starter):
Frontier's cash position should now be between $35 and $40 million (optimistically) based upon October as they must have lost at $10 million (probably more) during the month on the operating line. They need to raise cash shortly or they will run out of cash during January.

While the passenger revenue numbers are not so positive, I think it may be difficult to estimate what kind of loss may have occurred until we know what the impact lower fuel prices had on expenses for November.

Quoting Enilria (Thread starter):
Lynx reported another new low for load factor with 53.6%

When compared to the 63.2% load factor at Southwest which has a much much lower yield, the 53.6% load factor doesn't look so bad. The question remains, what were the expenses required to operate and then with the revenue information we will have a better picture.

None of this is to say things are rosy, it is just saying we only have a small part of the picture from which to make our armchair estimates.


User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25244 posts, RR: 85
Reply 10, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 3162 times:
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Quoting Stapleton (Reply 9):
When compared to the 63.2% load factor at Southwest which has a much much lower yield, the 53.6% load factor doesn't look so bad.

I am pleasantly surprised by the Lynx load factor, I was expecting it to be slightly less.

The mountain destination numbers, for example, are not good in shoulder season and back in April Frontier talked publicly about suspending ASE in shoulder.

With mainline, the numbers suggest that Frontier has worked out the balance between demand and supply, while some other airlines are reporting a serious imbalance.

No one knows - and I dispute that anyone can predict - what will happen. The numbers coming out about the economy are getting worse, such as the staggering unemployment figures today.

I guess it depends on perspective and what anyone was expecting the numbers to be and the context in which they are happening.

Quoting FreequentFlier (Reply 8):
Have these latter two been accounted for in the schedule yet?

Yes.

Quoting FreequentFlier (Reply 8):
F9 is running out of places to cut while maintaining an actual network hub in DEN!

I don't see that, and, at least as of about three days ago, they publicly said that they do not presently plan on any more reductions, unlike some other airlines.

That may change, given what happens to the economy. I can only work with what I know.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineEnilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7180 posts, RR: 13
Reply 11, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 2 days ago) and read 3041 times:



Quoting ScottB (Reply 5):
Almost all of the RASM and load factor numbers reported so far for November have been very poor...but I didn't expect November RASM to improve for Frontier.

CO was +1-2% on PRASM and Frontier is down 10% stage adjusted. That is very poor. Keep in mind Southwest added its last major round of DEN capacity in November.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 5):
There are two more being sold this month as well. My best guess is that they will end the year with $60-70 million in unrestricted cash,

I hope you are right, but at the current burn rate they will go through $40-50 million in Jan/Feb and they will be negative in December as well.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 6):
It is moving to 100%, I believe, as per the revised agreement with First Data, if not already there.

That is going to sap another $20-30 million in cash as the CCP withholds cash flow.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 7):
Enilria - thanks for the latest edition of the Frontier Chronicles.

 checkmark 

Quoting Stapleton (Reply 9):
While the passenger revenue numbers are not so positive, I think it may be difficult to estimate what kind of loss may have occurred until we know what the impact lower fuel prices had on expenses for November.

Here's the problem. They reported a big loss on their future hedge position in October. That means they have big hedges going out at least 30 days. They will report an even bigger hedge loss in November because fuel was lower. Also, keep in mind that a hedge for this quarter is by definition part of "cash and short term investments".

Quoting Stapleton (Reply 9):
When compared to the 63.2% load factor at Southwest which has a much much lower yield, the 53.6% load factor doesn't look so bad.

Actually that is a stage correction issue again. Lynx average stage is 371 while WN is 646 I think. That would mean Lynx's stage adjusted PRASM is a little over 8 compared to WN. Considering a 737 is a lot cheaper to fly per ASM than a Q400 that is bad.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 10):
The mountain destination numbers, for example, are not good in shoulder season and back in April Frontier talked publicly about suspending ASE in shoulder.

Keep in mind the number of ASMs in intra-colorado is relatively little because the flights are so short. Things like BIL/ICT really drive the LF number.


User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25244 posts, RR: 85
Reply 12, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 2971 times:
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Quoting Enilria (Reply 11):
CO was +1-2% on PRASM and Frontier is down 10% stage adjusted. That is very poor. Keep in mind Southwest added its last major round of DEN capacity in November.

Why would you think I don't "keep in mind" those thing? I am fully aware, for example, of what Southwest in is doing in DEN.

For the record, when making comparisons I also prefer to work Frontier's numbers, rather than your interpretations of those numbers, but I'm not here to argue.

Quoting Enilria (Reply 11):
Keep in mind the number of ASMs in intra-colorado is relatively little because the flights are so short. Things like BIL/ICT really drive the LF number.

Why would you think I don't "keep in mind" those things? I could argue the toss about your statement, but once again, I don't see the point.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineEnilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7180 posts, RR: 13
Reply 13, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 2847 times:



Quoting Mariner (Reply 12):
Why would you think I don't "keep in mind" those thing? I am fully aware, for example, of what Southwest in is doing in DEN.

I think you took that the wrong way. The fact that WN hasn't announced any substantial increases after that one means at least one bit of RASM pressure is relieved. i.e. good new for Frontier.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 12):
For the record, when making comparisons I also prefer to work Frontier's numbers, rather than your interpretations of those numbers, but I'm not here to argue.

I didn't devise stage correction in my basement workshop. It is industry standard and included in virtually every Wall Street performance comparison using the exact same methodology. You can, however, choose to ignore the change in stage if you wish. The reason they provide it in the statistics is specifically for the purpose of allowing Wall Street to make the correction.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 12):
Quoting Enilria (Reply 11):
Keep in mind the number of ASMs in intra-colorado is relatively little because the flights are so short. Things like BIL/ICT really drive the LF number.

Why would you think I don't "keep in mind" those things? I could argue the toss about your statement, but once again, I don't see the point.

I'll just provide the actual statistics then. Intra-Colorado was 34% of Lynx departures during the month, but only 16% of ASMs. Since LF is ASM weighted, even if intra-Colorado carried zero passengers and everything else had a 76% LF they would still have a 60%. So basically, to get to a 53% it all sucked, not just intra-Colorado. If intra-Colorado carried a 50% (which is probably about right) the rest would have been about 55%.


User currently offlineEnilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7180 posts, RR: 13
Reply 14, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 2818 times:



Quoting Enilria (Reply 13):
I didn't devise stage correction in my basement workshop. It is industry standard and included in virtually every Wall Street performance comparison using the exact same methodology. You can, however, choose to ignore the change in stage if you wish. The reason they provide it in the statistics is specifically for the purpose of allowing Wall Street to make the correction.

This CO presentation shows stage adjusted RASM:
http://www.continental.com/web/en-US...l_presentation_calyon_20080918.pdf

Also, from a DL press release:
Delta’s length of haul adjusted RASM increased 6.1 percent for the first quarter 2007 versus first quarter 2006.
http://news.delta.com/article_display.cfm?article_id=10659

...and Air Canada.
An adjusted RASM increase of 2.0% due to the growth in yield
http://www.aircanada.com/en/about/investor/documents/2008_MDA_q1.pdf

Just google it and you'll find plenty more...Frontier even uses it when it suits them...


User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25244 posts, RR: 85
Reply 15, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 2792 times:
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Quoting Enilria (Reply 13):
I think you took that the wrong way.

Again, it was the "keep in mind" part that I questioned. Why would I not "keep in mind"?

As to stage length, my point is only that if are going to adjust one number, you have to adjust every number used as a comparative and that if everyone else is using one set of numbers and you are using another set of numbers, there is a high probability of confusion.

Personally, I don't get involved in the stage adjusted numbers because I have seen experts argue over the formulas they use to make the adjustments.

As to the Lynx load factor, I don't come here to fight. So I'll just repeat myself - for the time, in the context, and with a fairly clear idea of what was happening at a couple of stations, I was expecting a slightly lower number.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineEnilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7180 posts, RR: 13
Reply 16, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 2661 times:



Quoting Mariner (Reply 15):
As to stage length, my point is only that if are going to adjust one number, you have to adjust every number used as a comparative and that if everyone else is using one set of numbers and you are using another set of numbers, there is a high probability of confusion.

The only other available number stage correction would impact is yield. They haven't really been reporting CASM, although it can be derived easily. Stage adjustment is particularly relevant to F9 because the network has changed so much in the last year. It would also be really relevant to YX, but not a big effect on most of the other airlines.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 15):
Why would I not "keep in mind"?

Just a figure of speech. I in no way meant it to be insulting. That wasn't my intent.  Smile

What is your take on SY getting DIP? I'm shocked. That shows that F9 should have a pretty easy time.


User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25356 posts, RR: 49
Reply 17, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 2646 times:



Quoting Enilria (Reply 16):
SY getting DIP? I'm shocked

You know where the financing is from right?

Its from a Petters subsidiary - not an outside lender.

The court over the objections of Petters own bankruptcy case creditors allowed it to provide Sun Country what amounts to a 5 month bridge loan at 10% interest from money that the Petter subsidiary received as a refund from Airbus on a business jet venture.

The Petters creditors wanted the subsidiary be liquidated to pay off its own debts, while the court allowed Sun Country to access the funds as a loan.

So Sun Country still needs to find replacement and more permanent funding by April.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25244 posts, RR: 85
Reply 18, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 2626 times:
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Quoting Enilria (Reply 16):
What is your take on SY getting DIP? I'm shocked. That shows that F9 should have a pretty easy time.

Getting DIP from an inter- related company is not exactly the hardest thing in the world.

To a very real extent, Frontier has to function on it's own, its own resources, without help from others.

Even the Creditors DIP (not just Republic) was a reaction to something Frontier had already achieved and was to protect their own, that is the Creditors, interests.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineEnilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7180 posts, RR: 13
Reply 19, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 2566 times:



Quoting LAXintl (Reply 17):
The court over the objections of Petters own bankruptcy case creditors allowed it to provide Sun Country what amounts to a 5 month bridge loan at 10% interest from money that the Petter subsidiary received as a refund from Airbus on a business jet venture.

I had missed that detail. I thought the whole point of filing was to disentangle SY from Petters. Doesn't this just perpetuate the underlying problem? Why would they restore pay levels as a result of such a short-term windfall? All very odd.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 18):
Even the Creditors DIP (not just Republic) was a reaction to something Frontier had already achieved and was to protect their own, that is the Creditors, interests.

And what do you think is their interest now? Do you think Republic is ready to double-down since now they are in bed with at least four airlines in separate financing deals, or do you think they are regretting those moves in our new economic meltdown? I noticed all the Republic deals pre-date the govt bailout and subsequent upheaval of the Dow.


User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25244 posts, RR: 85
Reply 20, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 2556 times:
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Quoting Enilria (Reply 19):
And what do you think is their interest now? Do you think Republic is ready to double-down since now they are in bed with at least four airlines in separate financing deals, or do you think they are regretting those moves in our new economic meltdown? I noticed all the Republic deals pre-date the govt bailout and subsequent upheaval of the Dow.

I have no idea what Republic thinks and I don't understand what you mean by double-down.

All I know is that a group of Creditors, of which Republic was one, provided DIP financing to Frontier, which deal was approved by the bk judge.

My point was that I think the Creditors behaved reactively, not proactively.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25356 posts, RR: 49
Reply 21, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 2540 times:



Quoting Enilria (Reply 19):
I thought the whole point of filing was to disentangle SY from Petters

Yes I would hope so.

Quoting Enilria (Reply 19):
Doesn't this just perpetuate the underlying problem?

Judges have lots of leeway in the manner they manage their cases. Seemingly this one felt moving a few chess pieces between the Petter companies was prudent.

Quoting Enilria (Reply 19):
Why would they restore pay levels as a result of such a short-term windfall? All very odd.

 Confused Suppose some level of confidence. I assume majority of SY's winter packages are sold so they probably have a good idea of revenues thru early months of '09 at the very least.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineEnilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7180 posts, RR: 13
Reply 22, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 2441 times:

Quoting Mariner (Reply 20):
I have no idea what Republic thinks and I don't understand what you mean by double-down.

2nd round dip is basically doubling Republic's risk. They (Republic) haven't ever said a word about it in any of their releases and conference calls, but it could come to a point where they need to ante up in order to refill F9's cash coffers.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 20):
My point was that I think the Creditors behaved reactively, not proactively.

I agree. That is typical of creditors, however. They are never cohesive until a threat bonds them.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 21):
Suppose some level of confidence. I assume majority of SY's winter packages are sold so they probably have a good idea of revenues thru early months of '09 at the very least.

Sounds plausible, but given SY's checkered financial history I'd be surprised to see them emerge unless Petters survives somehow.

[Edited 2008-12-06 22:36:23]

User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25244 posts, RR: 85
Reply 23, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 2406 times:
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Quoting Enilria (Reply 22):
They (Republic) haven't ever said a word about it in any of their releases and conference calls, but it could come to a point where they need to ante up in order to refill F9's cash coffers.

(a) That applies all the creditors involved in the DIP, not just Republic, and I don't know that they have a choice.

(b) That seems to contradict what you said in the concurrent Frontier thread:

http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo...eneral_aviation/read.main/4228709/

enilria: "Again, let me say that I think they will survive, but if you read the Republic conference call transcripts or better yet listen to the calls they made it clear they are not interested in round two of the DIP. That is surely why F9 isn't planning on it."

I'm confused, and I would be interested to hear the opinion of the bk judge if they tried to go that way.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineEnilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7180 posts, RR: 13
Reply 24, posted (5 years 9 months 2 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 2328 times:



Quoting Mariner (Reply 23):
(a) That applies all the creditors involved in the DIP, not just Republic, and I don't know that they have a choice.

Republic and the creditors have a choice. There is no commitment to Round 2. Look at docket #429 exhibit A. This section was added from the Perseus agreement and is shown in blue to indicate it was added...

The Borrowers may, on any date following the date that is 30 days after the funding of
the Stage 1 Loan, by notice in writing to the Administrative Agent and each Lender, request
Stage 2 Loans in an aggregate principal amount of not more than $45,000,000. The Lenders
may in their sole discretion having regard to then-current market conditions and the
Borrowers’ business, assets, operations, prospects or financial or other condition and such
other matters as the Lenders may deem relevant in their sole discretion, provide such loans on such terms and in such amounts as the Lenders determine in their sole discretion, it being understood that no Lender is under any obligation to provide or arrange all or any part of the Stage 2 Loan and nothing herein shall be construed as a commitment from any Lender to provide or arrange all or any part of the Stage 2 Loan.


Frontier will break the EBITDAR requirement in January based on the performance trend of late. It's kind of moot, though.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 23):


I'm confused, and I would be interested to hear the opinion of the bk judge if they tried to go that way.

Republic never said a word about Republic participating in round two DIP and they have never even referenced the $$$ amount in the DIP agreement specified for round two. When F9 announced the DIP agreement with round 1 and 2, Republic only "announced" round 1 in their investor communications.

What Republic has said is that they participated in round 1 so that Frontier could make it to a "transparent auction process" in order to exit Ch11.


25 Mariner : I'm still confused about your two statements, one in one thread, one in this. From the other thread: And one in this: Either they have spoken about it
26 Post contains links Enilria : They have never spoken about Republic participating in round 2 DIP which by omission makes it clear to me that they will not participate in it. This
27 Mariner : If they haven't said anything, I don't read anything into it, there may not be anything to say. Anyone can read anything into that, but I try to avoi
28 Enilria : I generally agree, but they have not done any financings since the credit crunch. They could be under more financial pressure now. I don't expect the
29 Mariner : As stated before, it is my understanding that is yesterday's fish and chips, that the holdback is, or is going to, 100%, as per the new agreement, wh
30 Enilria : I take everything you say at face value. So, based upon that they need to sell more aircraft shortly to shore up their cash position. Also, with the
31 Mcg : Did WN eliminate Tus - Den?
32 Mariner : Well, maybe. I can only repeat myself - I don't try to second guess Sean Menke. As to the rest, I'm not sure what you expect me to say or even if you
33 Enilria : They announced it today. They had not been flying it. This is quoted from another thread, but WN cut DEN fares 50%. There is some debate about who st
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