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DL And The B748i Or A380  
User currently offlineDeltadude From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 132 posts, RR: 0
Posted (5 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 19898 times:

Now that we've seen pictures of a Delta 747-400 and heard how management is going to use them to optimize the performance of the routes, what do you think the possibility of future orders for replacement VLAs? Are they just going to order 777-300 instead?

217 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineBurnsie28 From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 7538 posts, RR: 8
Reply 1, posted (5 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 19903 times:

Supposidly just the 777-300 instead unfortunately.


"Some People Just Know How To Fly"- Best slogan ever, RIP NW 1926-2009
User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16858 posts, RR: 51
Reply 2, posted (5 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 19905 times:

I agree, I see the 747-400s being replaced by 777-300ERs. The economics are just not there for anything else.


Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineLY777 From France, joined Nov 2005, 2679 posts, RR: 2
Reply 3, posted (5 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 19897 times:

I would have loved to see them ordering 747-8, who knows...


אמא, אני מתגעגע לך
User currently offlineDeltaL1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9321 posts, RR: 14
Reply 4, posted (5 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 19860 times:



Quoting Deltadude (Thread starter):
Now that we've seen pictures of a Delta 747-400 and heard how management is going to use them to optimize the performance of the routes, what do you think the possibility of future orders for replacement VLAs? Are they just going to order 777-300 instead?

most likely 77Ws. 748 has a small chance. A380 is just to big they would have all of 3 routes that MAY work with it.



yep.
User currently offlineBreaker1011 From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 938 posts, RR: 2
Reply 5, posted (5 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 19841 times:

Rumors about 77W's have been out there for a while. I agree with Burnsie, if there is an upcoming change in orders with Boeing, the 748 isn't a hot contender, and the A380 - probably not even a duck in the pond. DL's in love with the T7, for good reasons, not to mention that a 77W is cheaper than either alternative, helps with crew utilization, and probably fits capacity needs in the future far better, at least for DL. Guess we'll know in a few months as I think I've read on there that more details regarding DL's Boeing selections (perhaps even in place of existing 787 delivery slots) will be forthcoming.

For that matter, I just hope the 744 stays in the fleet for a good time to come. If the global economy keeps sucking wind like this, it's days may be numbered. THAT would be a true disappointment (regardless of financial considerations!)



Life's tough. It's even tougher if you're stupid. J. Wayne
User currently offlineJfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8326 posts, RR: 7
Reply 6, posted (5 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 19781 times:
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Quoting Breaker1011 (Reply 5):
For that matter, I just hope the 744 stays in the fleet for a good time to come. If the global economy keeps sucking wind like this, it's days may be numbered. THAT would be a true disappointment (regardless of financial considerations!)

With Delta painting teh first 744, they are going to be around a few years. With Atlanta DL can better utilize the 744 then NW could in MSP and DTW. ATL to NRT by 744 has already been announced, other new 744 destinations could be GRU.


User currently offlineAf773atmsp From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 2663 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (5 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 19757 times:

77W: probably since DL is ordering more 772LRs

747-8: possibly but it is large and might not work on the 744 routes

A380: too large for the 744 routes


I would really like DL to order A346s. If DL likes the A330 then maybe an order for A346s would have a chance.



It ain't no normal MD80 its a Super 80!
User currently offlineLY777 From France, joined Nov 2005, 2679 posts, RR: 2
Reply 8, posted (5 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 19710 times:



Quoting Af773atmsp (Reply 7):
I would really like DL to order A346s. If DL likes the A330 then maybe an order for A346s would have a chance.

I think this is REALLY unlikely



אמא, אני מתגעגע לך
User currently offline1337Delta764 From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 6474 posts, RR: 2
Reply 9, posted (5 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 19672 times:



Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 4):
A380 is just to big they would have all of 3 routes that MAY work with it.

Also, none of the gates at ATL are capable of handling the A380, not even those in Concourse E or the upcoming Concourse F.



The Pink Delta 767-400ER - The most beautiful aircraft in the sky
User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22876 posts, RR: 20
Reply 10, posted (5 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 19674 times:



Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 4):
A380 is just to big they would have all of 3 routes that MAY work with it.

DL is in an interesting solution. They now have three hubs with capacity issues: JFK, ATL, and NRT. At the same time, DL has a proven track record of succeeding with relatively small fleets of specialized aircraft; the original 8 772s and the MD90s come to mind. I do think DL could find a home for 8 380s, something like

ATL-CDG (1 aircraft)
ATL-NRT (1.5 aircraft)
DTW-NRT (1.5 aircraft)
DTW-Europe (AMS or CDG-- 1 aircraft)
ATL-GRU (1.5 aircraft)
JFK-CDG (1 aircraft)



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30886 posts, RR: 87
Reply 11, posted (5 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 19634 times:
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Since I don't see DL becoming the exclusive US carrier across either the Atlantic nor the Pacific, which is about the only scenario they could really make use of a real fleet of A380s or 747s, DL's future fleet will all have two engines as they phase out the 747-400s with 777-300ERs (likely as the former come up for their heavy maintenance).

User currently offlineSsublyme From United States of America, joined Dec 2008, 516 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (5 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 19630 times:

Highly unlikely to see anything bigger than the 744's in DL livery. 777-300 is as big as it's gonna get for the forseable future. Multiple frequencies with smaller aircraft vs less frequency with larger aircraft would be the rationale. Plus probably not any route that could support the A380.

User currently offlineDeltaL1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9321 posts, RR: 14
Reply 13, posted (5 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 19589 times:



Quoting Af773atmsp (Reply 7):
I would really like DL to order A346s. If DL likes the A330 then maybe an order for A346s would have a chance.

I think the A380 has a better shot than that

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 9):
Also, none of the gates at ATL are capable of handling the A380, not even those in Concourse E or the upcoming Concourse F.

and never will.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 10):
ATL-CDG (1 aircraft)
ATL-NRT (1.5 aircraft)
DTW-NRT (1.5 aircraft)
DTW-Europe (AMS or CDG-- 1 aircraft)
ATL-GRU (1.5 aircraft)
JFK-CDG (1 aircraft)

1 JFK-CDG is going to be all AF(so DL will have 380s on the route in a round-about way)
ATL will not have A380 gates. The airport said for them to add the gates it would need 5-10 380 flights a day.(plus they asked Delta and DL don't them they don't need/want the 380) They don't want to "waste the money". Plus it would take this airport 20 or so years to add them (the way they move)  Sad
Not sure DTW-anywhere needs a A380.....to big.
77W is just fine. they have the NRT slots to make DTW/ATL-NRT 2 to 3 daily if needed.



yep.
User currently offlineEXAAUADL From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (5 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 19541 times:



Quoting Burnsie28 (Reply 1):
Supposidly just the 777-300 instead unfortunately.

The 777-300 has excellent economics. How does the 773 do with cargo? They will need a good cargo plane for Manila

Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 4):
A380 is just to big they would have all of 3 routes that MAY work with it.

That is the basic problem with a A380. DTW-NRT, ATL-NRT, ATL-CDG, ATL-AMS, DTW-AMS, maybe LAX-NRT-MNL and that is about it.


User currently offlineBreaker1011 From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 938 posts, RR: 2
Reply 15, posted (5 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 19517 times:



Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 13):

and never will.

To say "never" is not realistic. However unlikely it is, if enough airlines one day (including or not including Delta) ever approach ATL to pressure for A380 space, you bet your bottom dollar ATL will make way for it somewhere. Having a DL hub is sweet for the city, but having a bigger host of international flag carriers serving the airport is quite significant as well.

Heck, if AF alone approached the city tomorrow and wanted ATL to be among it's A380 destinations, I guarantee you there'd be consideration given and it would at least be discussed.



Life's tough. It's even tougher if you're stupid. J. Wayne
User currently offlineCentrair From Japan, joined Jan 2005, 3598 posts, RR: 20
Reply 16, posted (5 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 19513 times:

I am trying to remember but wasn't there a pre-finalized-merger statement from Anderson about the fleet and that the 748 was in the mix?

I love the 747 but I think that for DL, having so many departure points would make the 747 or A380 moot aircrafts. They will have 9 HUBs with flights to NRT, they have a ton to AMS and CDG (including code-shares) from just as or more locations, the africa routes would only merit one for legs, but even the 772LR can do a better job. I think arrows point to the 777-300ER. There are other factors as well, non-US carriers will expand and create competition. DL will have even more reasons to use KE more. KE or DL will start DTW-ICN which would create yet another location for onward connectivity.

But then again, DTW-NRT is 800 seats daily. ATL-NRT will be close to 700 seats daily.

If the US were the size of Georgia but had the same economic power, then VLA would be very necessary. But the US is huge and DL has far more departure/arrival points that other US carriers allowing traffic to be dispersed between HUBs.

Start Pet peeve
And for those who think that we will see DL fly 744s on Domestic routes? Sorry no. I think they will follow the NW model of rotating aircraft at major domestic & foreign hubs.

Even with the addition of JNB, GRU and CDG as 744 destinations, DL can rotate aircraft onto new routes at ATL, DTW, NRT, & CDG.

Example: DTW-NRT-ATL-NRT-LAX-NRT-ATL-JNB-ATL-GRU-ATL-NRT-MSP-NRT-DTW-NGO-MNL-NGO-DTW-NRT-ATL-CDG-JFK-CDG-ATL-NRT-HNL (Get the idea)

The only time we see NW fly them domestically now is in a crunch and for charters. There are many more ways of getting from A to B on the new DL.
End Pet Peeve



Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
User currently offlineDennys From France, joined May 2001, 878 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (5 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 19514 times:

DL ordereing A380 ? you must be joking !
In those economical uncertain days , it will be a miracle if DL can absorb NW ' s network and airplaines ...

DL flying A330 for a while , would be somehow logical for a couple of years .

DL ordering A346 ? is something like a joke now .... they have enough 777 to cover all their network .

My opinion is that any US carrier shall never buy any A340 or A380 .


Please let me know your opinions

dennys .


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22876 posts, RR: 20
Reply 18, posted (5 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 19518 times:



Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 13):
1 JFK-CDG is going to be all AF(so DL will have 380s on the route in a round-about way)

 checkmark AF's VLA plans are a bigger part of the puzzle than most realize. If, for whatever reason, AF finds itself in a situation where it cannot devote any 380s to the United States, that changes the picture significantly for DL.

Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 13):
The airport said for them to add the gates it would need 5-10 380 flights a day.(plus they asked Delta and DL don't them they don't need/want the 380) They don't want to "waste the money".

If DL said "jump," wouldn't the airport say "how high?" It seems like that's in their best interest...



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineMPDPilot From United States of America, joined Jul 2006, 991 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (5 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 19421 times:



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 18):
If DL said "jump," wouldn't the airport say "how high?" It seems like that's in their best interest...

To a certain extent yes. Something people have to realize as well though is that Delta is so intertwined in ATL that moving or downsizing is less and less of an option. I would say that they are both in a position to make demands and both to answer simply because they want to work together, more than they have to work together.

I mean come on if ATL said no to Delta for some reason Delta isn't going to come back and say "We're leaving". Neither party really has any useful leverage.



One mile of highway gets you one mile, one mile of runway gets you anywhere.
User currently offlineBreaker1011 From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 938 posts, RR: 2
Reply 20, posted (5 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 19422 times:



Quoting MPDPilot (Reply 19):
I mean come on if ATL said no to Delta for some reason Delta isn't going to come back and say "We're leaving". Neither party really has any useful leverage.

One of the most intelligent statements I've read all day - nicely put.



Life's tough. It's even tougher if you're stupid. J. Wayne
User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22876 posts, RR: 20
Reply 21, posted (5 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 19377 times:



Quoting MPDPilot (Reply 19):
I would say that they are both in a position to make demands and both to answer simply because they want to work together, more than they have to work together.

I think that's right. If DL wanted/needed 380 gates at ATL, they'd appear.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineWESTERN737800 From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 693 posts, RR: 2
Reply 22, posted (5 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 19218 times:

I dont think we'll ever see DL order the A380, its just too big. I'm kinda intruged by the 748, but if they did order them it would be a small fleet. I think they'll just go with 777s to avoid adding another type to the fleet.


Bring back Western Airlines!
User currently offlineER757 From Cayman Islands, joined May 2005, 2510 posts, RR: 7
Reply 23, posted (5 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 19056 times:



Quoting WESTERN737800 (Reply 22):
I think they'll just go with 777s to avoid adding another type to the fleet.

Wouldn't adding the 748 be similar to adding the 773? They already have 744's now, just like they have 772's.


User currently offlineHNL-Jack From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 819 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (5 years 8 months 1 week 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 19024 times:



Quoting Dennys (Reply 17):
My opinion is that any US carrier shall never buy any A340 or A380 .

It may not be DL, but the 748 is likely to be in the future for at least one US carrier. Once UA finds its feet (under new management), they have the Pacific network that make the aircraft viable. The 748 looks like a great aircraft nicely placed between the A-380 and the B-777W/A-350XWB and while LH is the only carrier capable of exercising its ability to recognize and order the aircraft, I expect several Asian and at least UA in the US to add to the Boeing order book.



Grew up in the business and continued the family tradition.
25 Post contains images BinMonster : This is as close as Delta will get to the A380
26 EBJ1248650 : As was said in a popular animated movie some years ago, never say never!
27 NA : With 748Is or A380s Delta would have something to boast with and could offer something no US competitor does. 77Ws wont bring in new customers. Its so
28 DUALRATED : none, zero, nil, zilch. This topic comes up quite often.....amazing! I woud'nt worry, they won't
29 DeltaL1011man : this is true. IMHO if Atlanta ever gets 380 flights it will be AF or KE Yes but IIRC when the city started F they ask LH,AF,KE and DL if they will ev
30 Cubsrule : Not good, and that lessens DL's need for the 380 (though it doesn't change the picture in Asia or South America). As I pointed out in the over in the
31 DeltaL1011man : I thought thhat they had to add to the taxi ways also. Plus one gate in the city will take at least 6 years
32 Cubsrule : I don't know the details of ATL's situation, but it's certainly easier (and, more importantly, cheaper) to make a single runway (or just the north or
33 STT757 : DL doesn't even fly JFK-CDG anymore.
34 JRDC930 : IF DL stays with aircraft this big...and thats a BIG IF, given they seem to hate anything larger than a 767, i would imagine it would be the A380, giv
35 Cubsrule : Correct. With AF flying 2 772s and a 773 on the route, though, it seems like DL's lack of large aircraft is part of the reason. If DL were to buy VLA
36 RJ111 : There's virtually 0% chance of them ordering a VLA in the short to medium term. Long term - who knows.
37 Delta763 : And they're the only ones whose opinion matters when making those types of decisions. Airlines don't pick their fleet so they can show them off to us
38 STT757 : Or maybe AF doesn't care for DL's product, and would rather offer their own as the standard on their flagship NY-Paris route instead of offering diff
39 Cubsrule : Gates are an issue, though-- especially in the afternoon. Hard to say; AF is content to let DL operate all service to ATL.
40 DL767captain : I think a lot remains to be decided. DL will have to see what kind of demand increases there are for certain routes and see if it warrants a 748 or 77
41 STT757 : Not to knock Atlanta but... it's Atlanta.
42 Cubsrule : It is. I think you might be reading too much in to AF and DL's decision to rationalize JFK and ATL operations, though. For a while, AF had a token fl
43 1337Delta764 : That is totally true! Often in the afternoon, you will see DL 767s in Concourse T that are departing to an international destination, as there is no
44 N83SF : Couldn't agree more. There is just too much competition on Delta routes to have an extremely large capacity aircraft, the A380, to make a profit. If
45 WESTERN737800 : I was rafering to the 744 replacment. I hope the 744s will be around for years to come, but when they do go I think DL will go w/ the 777s. Does anyo
46 DocLightning : Why? This is something I've never understood. In most other countries with major carriers, they at least have 773's. Including AC, an airline serving
47 STT757 : Well for starters I don't see a US passenger airline operating any four engine aircraft, twin engine long haul operations are just as safe and more ec
48 Cubsrule : 2 questions come to mind... 1) How many carriers does Canada have? 2) How many hubs does Canada have? There are huge structural differences between t
49 KochamLOT : As the largest airline in the world...and as an American airline flying American Metal, I think it would be fitting to have the flagship aircraft be t
50 DocLightning : A larger number in proportion to their population than we do, actually. They have a hub in pretty much every city. And what about Europe? The EU has
51 Atlanta : What's wrong with Atlanta? You don't like waffles? No way DL would merge with AA. I like the A346 argument better than this one. True, but this indus
52 United Airline : The B 747-8 suits some of NW's routes. So there is a chance that DL will order it. When will NW's name disappear 100%?
53 Bmacleod : The 77W stands a better chance than the 747-8I as DL already has the 777 in its fleet. Other than a few big Asian routes I really can't see DL showin
54 Post contains links and images Keesje : Assume having these routes having those at 1 flight per day, smaller aircraft adding frequencies, add JFK flights and you'll need a respectable fleet
55 KochamLOT : Sadly....I agree. The largest airline in the world doesnt fly a 747 - what this world coming to? Thats why I like Lufthansa; buying out other airline
56 Brilondon : Are the 747-400's really that old? Why would they get rid of them as they come up for haeavy maintenance? Would it be cheaper if DL purchased 777's t
57 Jetlanta : Keep in mind that the U.S. carriers have been competitively ravaged over the past 30 years and make nothing approaching a Return on Investment of any
58 MBJ2000 : I don't get this whole 747 nostalgy, aircraft such as 787, A350 etc. are the future Let me put it in the words of Monty Python: The 747 is no more! I
59 DocLightning : Yeah but it's never been answered to my satisfaction. I don't know how many Chicago-New York flights there are a day, but a number like 60 wouldn't s
60 DUALRATED : Please elaborate I gotta hear this one. And we go back to the 70's no thank you! the days of flying 747's coast to coast are over. Ever hear of Tower
61 DLPMMM : DL has pleanty of NRT slots and plans to overfly the NRT hub to many Asian destinations in the future which means that the slot restrictions at NRT w
62 Cubsrule : No. The EU has about 113 people/square kilometer The US has about 31 people/square kilometer If you look at the countries you're thinking of, the dif
63 DLPMMM : Thank you for adding some very interesting facts into the equation. A population density factor difference of between 3 and 8 (depending on EU wide o
64 SKAirbus : Do you think Delta would order the A350 as a replacement for the A330s?? NWA seemed pleased with their A332 and A333s..... Now that the 787 is looking
65 DLPMMM : I doubt that DL will order any significant quantities of wide bodies in the near future from any manufacturer. A few more 777LRs maybe, but not much
66 Davescj : Incorrect, AF does send metal to ATL. AF 385 ATL -- CDG AF 388 CDG -- ATL daily A340 service. I agree, particularly the dense Asia routes. I can also
67 Cubsrule : That flight isn't daily, though, right? It appears that some days there are 3 DL flights (22, 28, and 52) and some days, like today, there are 2 DL f
68 YULWinterSkies : Except that there is no need for replacing the A330, since they just acquired the fleet. These airplanes are BRAND NEW. Period. They will be there fo
69 Jacobin777 : There are a few reasons which come to mind. 1)Australians and Singaporeans as a percentage tend to travel more than most others, certainly more than
70 Keesje : Populated areas are very similar. The big majority lives on small pieces of land next to water & that is where the big airports are too. Just like in
71 Cubsrule : But that only tells half the story. If the whole population of Europe lived in London and Athens, that would create very different demand for air tra
72 Post contains images Viscount724 : Not true for LH. MUC is also a major hub.
73 Buddys747 : My thoughts: A380= would be nice but doubtful, especially since they don;t seem interested in adapting ATL B748i= Pacific Routes give it a chance B77w
74 DfwRevolution : Get off your rocker. The A340 is all but dead and the A380 is unrealistically large for U.S. airlines. Patriotism is not why the A340 and A380 did no
75 Jacobin777 : I'll probably have to eat some words there then.. ..but I'll point out AMS for KL then instead...
76 Astuteman : Trouble with that statement is that it makes it sound like US carriers cancelled A340 and A380 orders because they were crap, which is almost certain
77 Par13del : History is an important teacher, neither the US nor Europe arrived where they are today in the aviation industry overnight. Slot restrictions were no
78 Post contains images Kappel : Haha, come on. AMS is only a few hours driving from any point in the Netherlands, so there really is no point of having a second hub for KL. (I do re
79 Bobnwa : Don't the 16 747-400's that DL now has count as much as the 777's? What attributes doe UA have that DL/NW don't have to make it a better candidate fo
80 CHRISBA777ER : *applause* - welcome to my RU list. Did you even read what he said? You know, the bit about slot congestion? 1 hr 40 mins in line waiting to take off
81 JRDC930 : Its a moot question; i doubt the 748i will be continued past boeings obligation to LH, so DL has only one real option and thats the A380, which is pro
82 Bobnwa : You are right there are statistic (facts) and the ones I see contradict what you are saying. The largest 15 metro areas in the world list two US citi
83 DUALRATED : Your right you have traffic on a highway you add bigger cars ...got it! Rush hour is rush hour. First of all I'm not so familiar with ORD, but the re
84 RedChili : Exactly. We could also compare greater New York City with almost 20 million people to Frankfurt with 700,000 people. Surely, an airline with a hub in
85 Post contains links DfwRevolution : Congestion in the U.S. would be greatly reduced with modernized ATC and improved runway layouts at certain airports. Investing in regional rail so th
86 DLPMMM : You just proved your own (made up) statistic wrong. 90% of NYC residents don't even live within a half hours drive from a major airport, much less th
87 AirNZ : Most unusually, I have to completely disagree with you here Chris and certainly wonder either what parameters, or statistics you seem to be using. As
88 MBJ2000 : But his remark is still valid, do you see London, Paris, Amsterdam on that list? but BA, AF/KLM will use the A380 from those places. Yet it's inimagi
89 DfwRevolution : JFK and LAX are too competitive for one of the U.S. airlines to gain enough market share to fill A380s. AF and BA capture a much larger market share
90 Post contains links RedChili : To define the population of a certain city or metropolitan area is no easy science, and you will never get an answer that everybody agrees with. I'm
91 Max550 : I think the reason for that is the number of different carriers. If I'm flying somewhere internationally from Amsterdam I'll probably take KLM or the
92 Gsosbee : Over looking the fact that there is not an airline called NW/DL, DFw's comments are right on. The US airline model is based on frequency, not capacity
93 Cubsrule : Source? Large parts of the populations of most large US cities (New York, Chicago, etc.) do not live within half an hour's drive of a major airport..
94 DfwRevolution : Until the merger is complete, NW is a subsidiary corporation of Delta, Inc. That means that the 744s (even the one painted in DL colors) are still op
95 Par13del : US airlines wanted into LHR, period and were willing to give anything to get there, that they were flying into secondary airports was simply because
96 CHRISBA777ER : Not a single European city on that list. No. It isnt the same thing. We are talking about routes like ORD-JFK, EWR-IAH, JFK-LAX, SFO-ORD, BOS-LAX, IA
97 Davescj : This may be unlikely, but could the 748 ever be a domestic plane? With the congestion issues (and the FAA threat of auctioning slots), why not a retur
98 Kappel : That's not a fair comparison. The distance between IAD and JFK or EWR is about the same as the distance between AMS and CDG. So in your theory, if I
99 Par13del : Sounds as if Boeing chose the wrong country to market the B-787-3, what most are talking about is an abuse of a VLA a/c for short routes, ironically,
100 Jfk777 : JFK to LAX and SFO is largely a 767 and 757 situation. AA is the biggest airline in both markets with 3 class 767, international style service & many
101 DLPMMM : But there are also alot more airports serving the "greater LA area" (and not international airports) as you define it, than Paris or Amsterdam, rende
102 Keesje : Yes, but they hardly ordered anything.. what % of 787 orders is from US based airlines? The dream of every airline: only high yield passengers & leav
103 CHRISBA777ER : Thats like the Captain of the Titanic saying that just because he had not hit an iceberg up till now, must mean that there was no ice out there. Time
104 DLPMMM : Economy passengers and discounted economy passengers are very different than the deeply discounted economy passengers. You can fly without the deeply
105 Jfk777 : AA recently ordered 42 787-9 plus optioned 58 for 100 787-9's. Continental has 25(a few more or less) 787-9's since 2005. NW had 17 787-8 on order, D
106 DLPMMM : Since the first order obtained by Airbus for the A380 in April of 2000, both NWA and DL have ordered hundred of new jets, including all of one of the
107 AirNZ : Sorry, but I don't quite get where you're coming from at all and, IMO, you're screwing the facts somewhat by trying to imply that you have an overwhe
108 CHRISBA777ER : We've been down this route before - you think that VLAs have a RASM disadvantage to smaller twins, and that because of this CASM doesnt really matter
109 DLPMMM : Because they can fill it on a consistant basis thereby providing a reasonable RASM (primarily due to slot restrictions on a large number of their rou
110 Post contains links Keesje : The yield per passenger is a kind of statiscal distribution. You can try to change the shape but cutting of the lower parts proved very unsuccesfull.
111 DLPMMM : A specious argument. The bottom rungs of the fare schedules do not bring in more than the cost, they just provide for marginal revenue. Changing the
112 CHRISBA777ER : So you are arguing that, slot restrictions aside, that a US carrier cannot fill a VLA on a consistant basis?
113 DLPMMM : Not without trashing their RASM.
114 CHRISBA777ER : What is specific to US carriers that makes their RASM particularly "vulnerable" to this trashing you refer to? Lets look at AA for example. Five depa
115 DLPMMM : Because AA would lose some of their premium seat customers to competitors with a departure time more convenient to those particular customers. Neithe
116 Rheinwaldner : No A380 or 748i will be operated under such a scenario. No A380 or 748i is planed to be used only where there is not too much competition. On the con
117 Brilondon : Yes, but what about the people who want to go at every 15 minute interval? This is exactly the reason the U.S. is so different then Europe. Not to me
118 Teme82 : Does DL want to have VLA on routes that has hight demand or not? If they do want to have the biggest VLA plane then it's the A380 hands down and if Ai
119 DLPMMM : That is the point. DL does not see the need at the present time for a new VLA in their route structure, as they do not see it adding to their profita
120 Cubsrule : By virtue of their comfort with small subfleets and their large size, though, DL is probably closer to a 380 order than any other US carrier.
121 Max550 : Agreed, I was trying to come up with some explanation for why the US lacks a large VLA market and after reading the responses I've realized it was a
122 DLPMMM : European Carriers: Slot restricted single major international hubs located in more concentrated population centers with easy public transportation to
123 Max550 : Thank you, that was my next theory I was tossing around in my head, you explained it much better than I could have.
124 Gsosbee : Europe features: (1) slot restricted airports which value capacity over frequency; (2) three major long haul competitors - BA, LH and AF/KL; (3) pass
125 Jacobin777 : No comment.. The B767 (or A330) is a perfect plane for many routes. As shown by various carriers, including DL, AA, BA, LH, CX, etc. The A380/B748I w
126 DUALRATED : There really is not a large pax VLA market anywhere. Hence why Boeing isn't building a new one.
127 CHRISBA777ER : I think its the frequency thing - the US customer wants frequency and convenience, and is (generally) prepared to sacrifice to get it. Given the huge
128 Cubsrule : Could larger aircraft do the job better? I've just read an estimate that increased frequency after deregulation benefited the American economy to the
129 Jacobin777 : I have to disagree on that one mate....BA's LHR-DXB is the perfect example of where BA uses more frequency and smaller planes. They are adding their
130 CHRISBA777ER : Not this again. No market for large VLAs anywhere? So the 200+ A388s Airbus has sold and the 25+ 748is Boeing has sold are a fluke, and made by airli
131 DUALRATED : Right! 250 aircraft is not a large market, 1000 aircraft is. And when the largest airlines, in the largest airtraffic system in the world want nothin
132 NW748i : Far too impressive of an aircraft, first of all. I agree wholeheartedly. UA is pretty well positioned to make use of these with SFO and ORD. NW is to
133 Delta763 : My post was deleted because of an offending comment (my sincere apologies) so I'm trying this again... This is my favorite post ever. Will the A350 be
134 Jacobin777 : So what you are saying is this particular management is doing a shoddy job?
135 NW748i : The Wall Street analysts can't say enough good things about UA's mgt. Every time I get a middle of the night voicemail at work it's from Jaime Baker
136 Par13del : You basically summarized what most Americans have been saying in this thread and others, but as for your solutions I have a couple questions. 1. What
137 Cubsrule : It's very easy (and it has happened). You simply impose slots for domestic (and Canada) flights only. That's precisely what the FAA did at ORD. Of co
138 Teme82 : How about the Asia routes that they got from NW?? I would imagine that some of the 744 routes could use the extra capacity of an A380...
139 Rheinwaldner : Is the combined DL/NW traffic not large enough to fill the 747 flights? It should, otherwise the merger failed to generate more (or at least consolid
140 DLRESAGNT : I still don't see how DL cannot use a VLA for certain routes. Other international carriers have them, why not the largest A/L??? Yeah, yeah I know the
141 Keesje : At Amsterdam, 80% of passengers is not Dutch. At many US hubs one carrier is dominant, like Europe. If I want to fly to the US say Philedelphia, thei
142 Columba : The high oil price will help. It helped that many Americans are changing their SUVs into smaller more fuel efficient cars. It will work in aviation a
143 Burkhard : Not every country is so underpopulated as most of the US are. Under the assumption that world population continues to grow ( a given ), the economies
144 Brilondon : The use of statistics is so skewed in most of the posts using them here have no meaning. Because you then reduce frequencies. This is what people wan
145 Columba : By this logic we would still around in 707s and Dc 10s. Because the 747s are getting old, need heavy maintenance, the A380 offers more space as the 7
146 CHRISBA777ER : Where did I say I wanted to fly an A380 to Buffalo?
147 Teme82 : Well that depends on the pax volume if it's hight all the time then bigger plane would be better. In my opinion the Asia - US West coast routes will
148 Rheinwaldner : Because it delivers 150% of that job for nearly the same price (SQ said the trip costs are nearly the same for an A380 as for a 744). A competitor wh
149 Bobnwa : If you talking about load factor, all the numbers I see show that NWA has the highest load factor in the Pacific of any carrier. Load factors are the
150 DUALRATED : What high price of oil? Are you comparing the 744 to 707's and dc'10's when it comes to the A380? if you are it's an absurd comment the A380 is no te
151 CHRISBA777ER : We've worked on the basis that oil will stabilise around the middle of next year at around US$110/barrel (+/- 15%). Worth bearing in mind. In your wo
152 CHRISBA777ER : So DUALRATED - Can you give us your hypothesis as to how the markets would adapt to a situation where everyone realises they've made a collossal mista
153 DUALRATED : Look who shares my world, You have plenty more airlines who either still use only the 747, or have withdrawn from use all together 747's from their f
154 Gsosbee : You must have had another item in mind. Your comments are not related to the quote you used. Slot control forces larger airplanes/less frequency. AF/
155 Delta763 : Thing is, though, if the demand isn't there now, you won't create it by changing the feed networks. Roughly the same number of Toledoans will fly NW
156 RedChili : Oh, it's much better. You have to remember that you can fly an A380 with 500 seats for basically the same price (trip cost) as a 747 with 380 seats.
157 Jacobin777 : Actually, that's not quite true....price, contracts, FF's play a big role as well.
158 RedChili : I did note in my scenario that X can offer economy prices 20 percent lower than Y. The A380 has a double edged sword against the 747: lower seat-mile
159 AirNZ : But what point are you trying make, other than attempting to bolster your hatred of the A380? If certain airlines chose not to order the A380 that is
160 DUALRATED : Hatred is a bit harsh, I don't hate anything that can fly, What I don't like is being told that we here in the U.S. we need the A380 based on inaccur
161 Cubsrule : ...but there's real money at stake. The fascination occurs at least partially because frequency is efficient.
162 Post contains links DLPMMM : You might want to compare the current offerings of both companies instead of a new model against a 20+ year old model that is no longer offered for s
163 Jacobin777 : Ok, I see your point...if all things being equal, sure...but that's not how things work. Planes such as the A350-1000 and the eventual B787-10 will h
164 RedChili : For your information, the vast majority of LHR-JFK flights on BA are on the 744, the biggest airplane in the BA fleet. During the winter, up to two d
165 Columba : No I am saying we are having a technical evolution from the 707 to the A380.
166 Rheinwaldner : No, not that again. Since the 767 there have been smaller planes (twins) with CASM on par to the VLA of their time. Ever. True, their flexibility was
167 RedChili : Good point. According to the "same or better CASM" argument, British Airways should have bought at least two dozen 333s fifteen years ago, and they s
168 Jacobin777 : Actually not and still didn't have the range which the B747's provided. I don't know who's saying there isn't a market for a VLA (maybe you can point
169 Rheinwaldner : CASM of the 767 was not on par (or close) to the 742? I have no hard evidence on 767/742 but I do know that e.g. CASM of the A333 is better than CASM
170 CHRISBA777ER : Great thread guys - lots of good discussions. Particularly Jacobin777, AirNZ and Rheinwalder - this is how we should be discussing issues on here. Gre
171 Cubsrule : But why not? There's always some factor driving a cycle, and if the 380 is a superior plane in every respect to what's out there, you'd expect cash-r
172 DLPMMM : But BA's major hub (LHR) is one of the most (if not the most) slot restricted airports in the world, thereby limiting their ability to expand frequen
173 Rheinwaldner : For the bulk of all airplanes it is given that some years after EIS better contenders appear on the market. Mostly this does not mean that the old ty
174 Cubsrule : Maybe cash-rich is the wrong criterion. Surely, an airline like EK is cash-rich, but it can hardly be compared to airlines in Europe or North America
175 RedChili : In addition to the factors mentioned by Rheinwalder, think it also has to do with the delay which the 380 experienced and all uncertainties associate
176 Cubsrule : They have to ask how high the probability is, though. Safeguarding against a 1% or a 5% probability-- to the tune of billions of dollars-- probably i
177 RedChili : Well, you wouldn't spend billions of dollars solely to safeguard against this. You would also spend the money to acquire a great airplane which you c
178 Cubsrule : If you get in a slot auction situation, though, replacing 2 CRJs with a 319 is just as good as replacing 2 763s with a 380. Given that both MSP and D
179 RedChili : That's a very good point. In real life, though, I suspect that the solution won't be any of these alternatives, but rather something like: Replacing
180 Rheinwaldner : 10 (of a total of 16 customers) The 744 has 50 customers. That means that rougly 1/5 of all 744 customers have decided for the A380 so far. Even if m
181 DLPMMM : Someday, monkeys might fly out of my butt, but I am not going to buy expensive flying butt monkey insurance. Your argument here is just plain silly.
182 Post contains links Keesje : If we take out ~ 20 747-400 cargo operators and very small 747-400 operators, take in the possibility of e.g ILFC placing A380's and A380 customers t
183 DLPMMM : Very unlikely in DL's case. Please show my any routes that DL flies six 763s or nine 744s. DL doesn't fly more than 2 wide bodies flights on any rout
184 Keesje : True, I expect that Delta, together with Air France KLM, Korean and some other will increase traffic between their Hubs at DTW, JFK, ATL, AMS, CDG, I
185 Jacobin777 : -Not always necessarily the case. -I have mentioned that there is a need for VLA's, just not as much as before (relative to the amount of planes bein
186 Cubsrule : ...which, as DLPMMM pointed out, brings us to the question of how much need for the 380 a carrier like DL really has. I don't think they need to have
187 Cerecl : This is based on Boeing's estimation of a 11% advantage of fuel burn/seat and 4% advantage of fuel burn/mile of 748i to A380. LH revealed that this e
188 DocLightning : I think the 77W will be a good choice for them at first. They only need order a few. Since it is essentially a stretch version of the 77L, there is no
189 DUALRATED : Who besides AA (very limited) used A300'S trans atlantic?
190 DLPMMM : Source? How could LH know given that they do not have an A380 yet, and the 748i has not even finished the design stage yet, much less being built or
191 Post contains links Cerecl : I refer you to the very informative posts of WingedMigrator in this thread http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/tech_ops/read.main/202430/ In thi
192 Astuteman : When they're making a comparison to the A380? But LH have performance guarantees on CONTRACTS for both aircraft in their configurations. The one plac
193 DLPMMM : What? That statement makes no sense at all. The 380 was on the market before Boeing proposed the 748i. Boeing said the market for a double decked VLA
194 Flyglobal : With something else then shit in their pants NW and now DL can fill a plane going NRT Hawai, NRT LA and NRT JFK. With Japanese carriers not having or
195 DLPMMM : It was a worthless comparison, since in a purchase/replacement decision the 744 is not available. The choices are 380/748/777s/35s0/787s/330s... " ta
196 Cerecl : The fact that 748i will have overall lower trip cost than A380 was never in doubt. What we are trying to (clearly not as successfully as we would lik
197 DLPMMM : That is the point. You believe without any data to back up the belief. Specifically what routes that DL flies would the demand warrant the A380? Plea
198 Cerecl : You clearly missed this: Sigh....I would have thought it is clear that I meant filling an A380 while charging fares that are comparable to services o
199 Kire : Are you sure? UA? DL? CO? AA? Well, in Q3 they did ... Ok, ok ... OS is one of the worst So - from time to time they seem to have another secret reas
200 DLPMMM : The current recession is irrelevent, and USA airlines have been ordering aircraft since the A380 introduction (DL has ordered 77Ls, CRJs, ERJs, NWA h
201 Flyglobal : Your arguing lets me assume that you are actually work for DL/NW on this kind of business? Its typical for a corporate insight. 'Lets never admit we
202 Astuteman : If the 748i had 11% lower fuel burn per seat in real world configurations, as Boeing claim, do you really think the A380 would have survived its dela
203 DLPMMM : Please don't paint me with a partisan brush. I don't care what airline buys what plane. I fly them all (both planes and airlines). My interest is onl
204 Cerecl : DLPMMM, the 20% figure is based on a 11% lower fuel burn/seat. Below is straight cut and paste from Boeing's 747-8 website: "The 747-8 is more than 1
205 PanAm788 : Great post. Shame it was basically ignored. But seriously, I couldn't agree more. Ok two problems. 1. Low load factors doesn't mean low profits. Carg
206 EPA001 : I like LH very much and have flown them frequently. Since I am a * alliance fan, I will always try to fly UA, LH or SQ, but in some cases I also flew
207 Astuteman : For what it's worth, that wasn't my intention, nor would it ever be. I appreciate the candour. FWIW Boeing DO claim this (as Cerecl's post shows), an
208 Flyglobal : Here is my theory: 1) The officially announced reason, that the 748 fits between the A340 and A380 for the routes one is to small and one is to big f
209 EPA001 : Thanks for your reply Flyglobal. I have to say that out of your answers probably points 3 & 6 are the points which puts LH in a somewhat unique positi
210 Rheinwaldner : Is it better to "feel" that airline X should NOT buy Y plane? Like this: I agree with that statement. I would not be surprised if the total number of
211 Keesje : On the soft side of business : I think the arrival of an A380 to any destination can be seen as a declaration of war to the home carrier because it of
212 DUALRATED : Yes! You got it! Not when you are loading and unloading from a remote stand in winter via airstairs . Ask them what exactly?
213 Gsosbee : Still guarantees nothing. The airline industry struggles to make profits because many airlines (like many a.netters) continue to believe the managing
214 Keesje : TV stations, newspapers and celebreties, crowds at the end off the runway, staff gathering around it, and out sold opening flights at any new destina
215 Gsosbee : How much revenue do these groups pay? A one time sell out does very little for the bottom line. In this now 200 plus reply thread the item that sever
216 HNL-Jack : You are correct about the Japanesse love to Honeymoon in Hawaii, but this a low budget crowd and the market has gone into the tank. JAL, ANA have dow
217 Rheinwaldner : That's what I call selective perception. What's with the rest of my comment? I basically said according this crude logic also a 777 should not exist.
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