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When Will LH And Its Colony Carriers Order Boeing?  
User currently offlineAvek00 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4336 posts, RR: 19
Posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 6136 times:

Beyond the LH 748I order, is there any idea as to when Lufthansa or its colonized associates (LX, OS, SK, BD, etc.) will place major Boeing orders?


Live life to the fullest.
26 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineMillwallSean From Singapore, joined Apr 2008, 1238 posts, RR: 6
Reply 1, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 6125 times:

When they believe Boeing has a product on offer that suits their needs and will be the most economical and enviromental product to buy.

LH is a rational airline, that's why they constantly outperforms most other airlines financially.



No One Likes Us - We Dont Care.
User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6867 posts, RR: 63
Reply 2, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 6126 times:

As soon as Boeing are offering a plane that meets their needs at a price they find attractive. LH et al are not in this for sentiment but for profit. They'll buy whatever best meets their needs. For LH, BD and SK (though less so for SR/LX and OS) this has been Boeing in the past and may well be again.

The 748i is already "in" and a couple of versions of the 777 have their foot in the door. Both SK and OS may order further 737s, though probably not in large numbers.

Thereafter, an order for 787s will be placed if LH et al like it better than the A330 or A350 for certain routes But it seems unlikely that the number of 787s will exceed the number of A350s in their combined fleets. (A reckless thing to say since LH has not yet ordered either plane but the A350 seems have have the edge here.)

But, in truth, the next time Boeing may expect to make major inroads into the combined fleets of LH & Co. looks like being when the next generation of narrowbodies comes onto the market.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30551 posts, RR: 84
Reply 3, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 6100 times:
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I'll still be gob-smacked if LH orders the 787 for themselves. I really think they're going all-Airbus (sans the 747-8I).

I expect the 787's chances are better at their other divisions.


User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 24803 posts, RR: 22
Reply 4, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 6070 times:



Quoting PM (Reply 2):
As soon as Boeing are offering a plane that meets their needs at a price they find attractive.

LH has operated almost 50% more Boeings than Airbuses (roughly 300 vs 215) since their first 707-420 was delivered in February 1960.


User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6867 posts, RR: 63
Reply 5, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 6017 times:



Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 4):
LH has operated almost 50% more Boeings than Airbuses (roughly 300 vs 215) since their first 707-420 was delivered in February 1960.

I'm sure you are right.

But, er, so what? There weren't a lot of Airbus planes available to buy for the first quarter of a century of your timeframe. Moreover, I wrote...

Quoting PM (Reply 2):
They'll buy whatever best meets their needs. For LH, BD and SK (though less so for SR/LX and OS) this has been Boeing in the past and may well be again.



Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
I'll still be gob-smacked if LH orders the 787 for themselves.

I'd certainly be surprised if LH don't end up with a substantial fleet of A350s. It therefore becomes harder to see where a sub-fleet of 787s fits in.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
I expect the 787's chances are better at their other divisions.

Indeed. BD? SN? OS? SK? I could see the 787 flying for all of them.


User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 24803 posts, RR: 22
Reply 6, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 5978 times:



Quoting PM (Reply 5):
Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 4):
LH has operated almost 50% more Boeings than Airbuses (roughly 300 vs 215) since their first 707-420 was delivered in February 1960.

I'm sure you are right.

But, er, so what? There weren't a lot of Airbus planes available to buy for the first quarter of a century of your timeframe. Moreover, I wrote...

LH was still taking delivery of 737s until 1995, 7 years after the A320 went into service, so in that case they made a clear decision for Boeing over Airbus. Boeing also had competitors in earlier years and LH obviously preferred the 707 over the DC-8, the 720B over the Convair 880/990, the 737 over the DC-9/BAC1-11/Caravelle, the 727 over the HS Trident etc.


User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6867 posts, RR: 63
Reply 7, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 5925 times:



Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 6):
LH was still taking delivery of 737s until 1995, 7 years after the A320 went into service, so in that case they made a clear decision for Boeing over Airbus.

Yes.

Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 6):
Boeing also had competitors in earlier years and LH obviously preferred the 707 over the DC-8, the 720B over the Convair 880/990, the 737 over the DC-9/BAC1-11/Caravelle, the 727 over the HS Trident etc.

Yes.

You seem to be arguing with me but I don't know what about.  Confused

I said in reply #2 and repeated in reply #5 that LH have happily bought Boeing in the past and may well do so again. Do you think I'm somehow attacking Boeing or suggesting that LH won't buy them again?

You've lost me.  boggled 


User currently offlineGlareskin From Netherlands, joined Jun 2005, 1303 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 5805 times:

as stated above LH and 'colonies' use Boeing products and will continue to do so as long as they offer a competitive product. LH will not become an all Airbus airline as suggested. Now you might wonder why DL, AA and CO have stated that they will become all Boeing. Are they convinced that Boeing will offer them the best suitable products for all circumstances at all times or do they think that the purchase price advantage will make up for any economical disadvantages in the use of the aircraft or is this silly US protectionism?


There's still a long way to go before all the alliances deserve a star...
User currently offlineColumba From Germany, joined Dec 2004, 7057 posts, RR: 4
Reply 9, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 5754 times:



Quoting PM (Reply 5):
But, er, so what? There weren't a lot of Airbus planes available to buy for the first quarter of a century of your timeframe. Moreover, I wrote...

There was a lot of political pressure on LH to buy the Bac 1-11 over the 737.
Though it was not an Airbus it was an European aircraft offered by one of the companies that was part of Airbus in the beginning.

But back to the question, LH is or never was interested in becoming all Airbus.
They were very close to order the 77W but decided for more A346s instead, a decision that made sense given that they already have the aircraft in their fleet and the huge numbers of A343s they had.
Without the 737NG and the 777 LH has operated every Boeing from the 707 - 767 in their fleet (767 leased in main line and for long time with Condor).

You will see that the MD 11 successor will be a Boeing aircraft either 777F or 747-8F and the 787 already has won the internal evaluation before in 2006.
The 787-9 is the perfect A343 and A333 replacement for LH so I would not rule it out.
Especially since this comment from LH fleet planer Nico Buchholz this June:

Buchholz expressed confidence that the 747-8 will be successful. "We need a 400-seat aircraft in the future," he said, claiming that engine commonality with the 787 will secure the aircraft's place in the mainline fleet. "The A350-1000 or 787-10 will not have the performance we need," he said.
http://www.atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=13049



It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
User currently offlinePM From Germany, joined Feb 2005, 6867 posts, RR: 63
Reply 10, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 5305 times:



Quoting Columba (Reply 9):
Though it was not an Airbus it was an European aircraft offered by one of the companies that was part of Airbus in the beginning.

Just to nit-pick, "in the beginning" it was Hawker Siddeley who were part of Airbus (the company that made the Trident) and not BAC (who made the 1-11). Later they merged to become British Aerospace.


User currently offlineTransIsland From Bahamas, joined Mar 2004, 2042 posts, RR: 9
Reply 11, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 5256 times:



Quoting Columba (Reply 9):
Without the 737NG and the 777 LH has operated every Boeing from the 707 - 767 in their fleet (767 leased in main line and for long time with Condor).

Did the 75 ever fly for LH? I only remember it flying for DE.



I'm an aviation expert. I have Sky Juice for breakfast.
User currently onlinePanHAM From Germany, joined May 2005, 9155 posts, RR: 29
Reply 12, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 5203 times:



Quoting TransIsland (Reply 12):
Did the 75 ever fly for LH? I only remember it flying for DE.

No, they did not. LH tried the 753 on loan from DE once, but de/emplaning took too long for the use on dense intra European flights.

Quoting Babybus (Reply 11):
Sorry, your statement is glaringly inaccurate within a ludicrous timeframe

sorry to tell you, but viscount724 is correct with his statement (although I haven't checked the count) What he meant is that LH bought, operated and sold a total number of 300 Boeings vs 214 Airbus types over the past 50 years..

.
The 777F will join the familiy (I think this is a little less polemic than "colony") soon with Aerologic.


it is safe to say that there will be mofre Boeings joining the fleet in the future. LH does not want to order from a single manufacturer, call it company policy or whatever.



E's passed on! That parrot is no more! He has ceased to be! E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker!
User currently offlineNA From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10645 posts, RR: 9
Reply 13, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 5203 times:

LH will order Boeings if Boeing builds a plane which is superior to its opponents or has something on offer no one else has, like the 748I, which btw was chosen over anaother Boeing aircarft, the 77W. The 737 is no better than the A320, which is the standard small to medium jet in LHs fleet today. So why should they order 737s again? They opted for the A340 when Boeing had nothing there, and that aircraft is still good enough to turn down the 777. If the 787 has a chance remains to be seen. As opposed to the A340/330/777 programs, where Boeing could learn from Airbus, this time Airbus has the chance to make the A350 a better plane than the Boeing 787, so unless Airbus fails, I´m quite sure the A350 will be LHS midsize jet of the future.

LH is at least not biased as some of its US competition who stubbornly and chauvinistically run a Boeing only policy.


User currently offlineColumba From Germany, joined Dec 2004, 7057 posts, RR: 4
Reply 14, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 5163 times:



Quoting TransIsland (Reply 12):
I only remember it flying for DE.

Indeed, but they are 757-230s and 757-330s, they carry the LH customer code.

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 13):
The 777F will join the familiy

They are leased not owned.



It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 5134 times:

If Boeing comes up with a super efficient 220-280 seat short/medium haul people mover to replace the A300s, I'm sure LH will take a look. A state of the art 350-500 seater long haul family would also be reviewed, or a 737/320 replacement intra europe, slashing fuel / operating costs. Lots of opportunities it seems  Wink

User currently onlinePanHAM From Germany, joined May 2005, 9155 posts, RR: 29
Reply 16, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 5006 times:



Quoting Columba (Reply 15):
Quoting PanHAM (Reply 13):
The 777F will join the familiy

They are leased not owned.

yes, but they will be operated by an LH joint venture.

With the purchase of OS, the 777 passenger version is in the family as well.



E's passed on! That parrot is no more! He has ceased to be! E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker!
User currently offlineA342 From Germany, joined Jul 2005, 4680 posts, RR: 3
Reply 17, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 4342 times:



Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 6):
LH was still taking delivery of 737s until 1995, 7 years after the A320 went into service, so in that case they made a clear decision for Boeing over Airbus.

Not really. They had no alternative to the 735, the A319 arrived around the time the last 737s were delivered and they quickly got rid of their 734s in favor of A320s.



Exceptions confirm the rule.
User currently offlineEnginebird From United States of America, joined May 2007, 341 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 4250 times:

LH has always based its decisions on economics rather than patriotism, which has made LH one of the most sucessful airlines in the world, unlike many American carriers. LH has a very well structured aircraft portfolio at the moment and thus does not have to commit itself to either the A350 nor the B787 any time soon, as the A330s, 340s and 744s in the fleet cater to all of LH's needs. AND, the B787 is way behind schedule, the production slots are sold out a long time into the future and, on most missions, the A330s are not far behind as fas as economics are concerned anyway

User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4384 posts, RR: 2
Reply 19, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 4175 times:

I expect the next larger Boeing order from LH to be the MD11F replacement by 20 B77F . LH either takes place in the development of planes very active, like on the 737,A321,A380 as examples, or they wait how the plane performs in real life.

User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Reply 20, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 4122 times:

I've been saying the whole time - i can see "LH Group" going for a split order. I know Columba doesnt agree with me   but I see it panning out as:

787 and A350 split with the:

788 for OS, and possibly some for LH's short/medium haul network to replace the A300's role (which will have long gone by the time the 787 arrives, but which the A321 will not be able to cover for - ie: peak time LHR and ATH flights, the Turkish flights, as well as the busier Middle East and African routes that get the A319, A333 or A343 right now. I know LH said the 788 is too small for them but as a short haul prime mover it is the only game in town if the A321 is too small and they don't want the A332.

789 replacing some of the A333s and some of the A343s on LH mainline, the A333s at LX and SN, and the 772s at OS. Engine commonality with the 748i makes this all but guaranteed in my view.

A359 replacing the rest of the A343s at LH, and although it is smaller, perhaps some of the 744s that are not replaced by 748i. There is a case for something larger than a 789 at LX and possibly SN, and if an order is made, the A359 will get it.

I dont see the 78-10 in their plans but eventually, the A350-10 in its mature form will likely replace the A346s and the last of the 744s at LH. This wont be for another fifteen years yet though.

I'd be inclined to think that BD's order will be for more A332s and nothing else.

I think a split is likely, but if one manufacturer has the edge, it has to be Boeing. LH Group is much more likely to go all Boeing with this order than all Airbus.

[Edited 2008-12-16 04:24:31]


What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
User currently offlineRheinwaldner From Switzerland, joined Jan 2008, 2213 posts, RR: 5
Reply 21, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 3978 times:

Does Boeing make leading passenger aircraft? Yes! Thus LH will choose a Boeing type if a leading offer meets a LH demand. As simple as that. That means taking benefit of the market.
Leading offer in this context means: a product which offers more return for the investment. This requires a good and efficient product, suitable for the demanded operation at a better price.

btw I see more restrained airlines in the US who would not choose a leading offer if it is not coming from a certain manufacturer.


User currently offlineZRH From Switzerland, joined Nov 1999, 5566 posts, RR: 36
Reply 22, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 3879 times:



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 21):
89 replacing some of the A333s and some of the A343s on LH mainline, the A333s at LX and SN, and the 772s at OS. Engine commonality with the 748i makes this all but guaranteed in my view.

A359 replacing the rest of the A343s at LH, and although it is smaller, perhaps some of the 744s that are not replaced by 748i. There is a case for something larger than a 789 at LX and possibly SN, and if an order is made, the A359 will get it.

For the case of LX I do not agree. They won't have a mix between 787 and 350. The size of its long-haul fleet of 25 (at the moment, later perhaps 30) is way too small to split. Although LX is a subsidiary of LH they are still an own company with an own pilot corps. LX will have to replace their 343 (sooner) and 333 (later) with a plane of similar size or little bigger. So I see a mix of 358 and 359 much more suitable than the 789 and ?.


User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 24803 posts, RR: 22
Reply 23, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 3581 times:



Quoting PM (Reply 7):
You seem to be arguing with me but I don't know what about.

Didn't intend to argue. I was only responding to your "So what?" comment in Reply 5 (don't think I had even seen your Reply 2) where you seemed to imply that LH's strong preference for Boeing in earlier years was because Boeing had no significant competition then. My post mentioning that LH had ordered more Boeings than Airbuses to date was only intended as a piece of trivia.


User currently offlineFlyglobal From Germany, joined Mar 2008, 571 posts, RR: 3
Reply 24, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 3448 times:



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 21):
788 for OS, and possibly some for LH's short/medium haul network to replace the A300's role (which will have long gone by the time the 787 arrives, but which the A321 will not be able to cover for - ie: peak time LHR and ATH flights, the Turkish flights, as well as the busier Middle East and African routes that get the A319, A333 or A343 right now. I know LH said the 788 is too small for them but as a short haul prime mover it is the only game in town if the A321 is too small and they don't want the A332.

This is what I see as well: The OS purchase, the, LH Italy, SN and if it happens SK are candidates for a 787-8 used for long haul destinations from the smaller hubs in Brussels. Vienna, Kopenhagen, Milan etc. to keep a reasonable long destination network from that 'small hubs'.
Airbus doesn't have a real competitor for this plane. The major problem here is the 787 development and available slots. I would guess that Boeing would do its best to arrange earlier slots for LH (not as AA, but for Boeing LH is a strategic partner as well), but they also can't upset the other waiting 787 customers too much as well.

If Boeing would decide to offer a 777 (upgrade) as a 4 holer (with 4 GTF engines), I guess LH would be launch customer. The same would apply for a A360 (= A350 with 4 GTF engines).
Maybe they are waiting for this type of Aircraft. 2015-2017 would be a perfect timeframe for that when their A346 fleets gets aged.

regards

flyglobal


25 Columba : The 787-8 will have the same problem as the A330 as an A300 replacement, the wingspan is too large. Here I agree, the 787-9 is the perfect A343 and A
26 Burkhard : 787-9 against 358 will be a really stiff competition.
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