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787 #001 And #002 Progress News On ATW  
User currently offlineArt From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3398 posts, RR: 1
Posted (6 years 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 16459 times:

According to ATW, the first 787 should have the fastener problems fixed by end 2008 and is expected to fly in April.

The second is expected to fly July.

http://www.atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=15090

Sorry if this has posted elsewhere but can't see it.

70 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineOykie From Norway, joined Jan 2006, 2755 posts, RR: 4
Reply 1, posted (6 years 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 16130 times:

I did not see it elsewhere either.  Smile

Finally a date is on the horizon of firming up. I hope that Boeing will get it right this time. I really would love too see this plane in the sky, but I also hope that it will not be a premature plane that is not able too meet within the performanvce specifications. We knwo there are some problems, but lets hope that in April Boeing will show us some good news We members at Airliners, and of course Boeing needs for this plane to deliver what it is supposed to deliver. Think of the environmental pressure. The aviation community needs to show that they can produce a plane in 2009 that is 20% more fuel efficient at least. Therefor. Boeing use your time well. You cannot afford to get this wrong.

I also see that there are uncertanties about when all 5 testplanes will take to the sky. A bit worrysome, because of the compresses flighttesting, but let's hope it turn out allot simpler to build the #003, #004 and #005  Silly (I know that for many reasons it will be simpler)



Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
User currently offlineAirbusA370 From Germany, joined Dec 2008, 253 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (6 years 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 16057 times:

Hmmm...

First, why do the need more than four weeks for the paint job? Airbus paints an A380 in two weeks...

Second, don't wanna split hairs, but wasn't the first flight scheduled for Q1? April is actually Q2.

Anyhow, it's good to see some progress! Although its crucial to get the other test planes in the air. Otherwise, the ambitious test schedule can't be met.


User currently offlineRheinbote From Germany, joined May 2006, 1968 posts, RR: 52
Reply 3, posted (6 years 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 15940 times:



Quoting Art (Thread starter):
Sorry if this has posted elsewhere but can't see it.

had been posted here a few days ago, but it wasn't picked up anywhere until now.
http://nyc787.blogspot.com/2008/12/787-schedule.html

Quoting AirbusA370 (Reply 2):
don't wanna split hairs, but wasn't the first flight scheduled for Q1? April is actually Q2.

Hardly matters whether first flight is happening a month sooner or later. The question is how realistic Q1 2010 is for first delivery and how much time it will take to restart and then ramp up production.


User currently offlineFlyglobal From Germany, joined Mar 2008, 611 posts, RR: 3
Reply 4, posted (6 years 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 15934 times:

Can't wait to see the 787 in the air.
Regarding flight test schedule I stay with my assumption that we end up more at 15 months then 12 months. I still see 10 months utopical, even if they could complete the ground based certification portion in the meantime. Didn't they need 4-5 planes in the air to achieve the 10 months? So after July 09 with the second plane, when will the other planes be in the air? Every 6-8 weeks one more?

I predict (based on knowledge today) EIS will be somewhere July - Sept 2010 finally.

regards

Flyglobal


User currently offlineHawkerCamm From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2007, 405 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (6 years 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 15580 times:



Quoting Flyglobal (Reply 4):
I predict (based on knowledge today) EIS will be somewhere July - Sept 2010 finally.

That's what I think... particularly if LN002 does not fly till Jul/Aug 09

Lets say first flights occur:
LN001 - April
LN002 - Jul/Aug 09
LN003 - Sep/Oct 09 (guess)
LN004 - Oct/Nov 09 (guess)
(LN001-4 needed for RR certif)
With what is known this does not seem too unreasonibly (particularly with all the mod work needed)
I'll put my "peg in the board" as well for a certified airframe in .............. Aug/Sep 2010


User currently offlineMrocktor From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 1672 posts, RR: 49
Reply 6, posted (6 years 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 15487 times:



Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 3):
Hardly matters whether first flight is happening a month sooner or later. The question is how realistic Q1 2010 is for first delivery and how much time it will take to restart and then ramp up production.

It matters. Its critical, actually, since the two things are not unconnected. If the plane flies in April, that leaves less than 12 months between first flight and first delivery. I can tell you right off the bat: its unrealistic.

When the plane actually flies, +12 months should indicate a possible delivery date. +18 if you want to be safe. More if there are significant issues discovered during the flight test campaign.


User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (6 years 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 15394 times:

It seems the fasterner issues is solved quicker then I thought, although a doubt how hard "end '08" is, when first flight is foreseen 4 months later.

It seems these days we have to look at to see the most realistic Dreamliners EIS predictions..  

[Edited 2008-12-22 05:15:39]

User currently offlineVanguard737 From United States of America, joined Aug 2001, 684 posts, RR: 4
Reply 8, posted (6 years 23 hours ago) and read 14134 times:



Quoting AirbusA370 (Reply 2):
First, why do the need more than four weeks for the paint job? Airbus paints an A380 in two weeks...

I'm by no means an expert in aircraft painting, but the Boeing livery seems by far more complex than the Airbus livery, perhaps this eats up a good deal of extra time?



320 717 722 732 733 735 737 738 744 752 753 763 772 DC9 DC10 MD80 B1900 S340 E120 ERJ CRJ CR7
User currently offlineAirbusA370 From Germany, joined Dec 2008, 253 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (6 years 22 hours ago) and read 13704 times:



Quoting Vanguard737 (Reply 8):

Yes, but a 787 has only ~1/4 of the fuselage area  Wink


User currently onlineNYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5802 posts, RR: 47
Reply 10, posted (6 years 22 hours ago) and read 13640 times:

The issue in my mind is not the first flight of LN 1 but the delay between the first flight of LN 1 and the first flight of LN 2 as I reported in my blog last week. This is about a 3 to 4 month difference and I'm still trying to find out why.

As to the painting (or repainting as it is) I think those are target dates (start painting around Feb. 24th and finish painting by March 2nd at the latests). It won't take a week to paint the airplane. LAst time it took two to three days.



That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31420 posts, RR: 85
Reply 11, posted (6 years 22 hours ago) and read 13551 times:
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I do not believe ZA001 spent four weeks in the hangar when it was first painted and last I heard (during the strike) was that only some "touch-up" paint needed to be done.

Are they maybe stripping all the existing paint and re-painting it in NH colors. deciding that the house colors for the roll-out were enough?

Could it be part of the testing and certification process, since airframes will need to be stripped and repainted over their lives and they need to see how it works on a complete frame and not just a test section?

And with all the delays, maybe at this point Boeing no longer wants to touch it up, fly it in house colors for the program, then wait four weeks longer in SAT to strip and re-paint it in NH colors for delivery if they can afford to do it now?


User currently onlineNYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5802 posts, RR: 47
Reply 12, posted (6 years 21 hours ago) and read 13250 times:

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 3):
had been posted here a few days ago, but it wasn't picked up anywhere until now.
http://nyc787.blogspot.com/2008/12/7....html

Yup, I reported the exact same thing four days ago that Geoffrey reported today. He had his own sources on this story which were seprate from mine so we essentially confirmed one another's story.

[Edited 2008-12-22 09:00:26]


That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
User currently offlineRheinbote From Germany, joined May 2006, 1968 posts, RR: 52
Reply 13, posted (6 years 21 hours ago) and read 13193 times:

While we are at it

FAA Approves 787 Maintenance Program:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/081222/aqm511.html?.v=28

"The scheduled maintenance program defines the maintenance tasks and intervals operators will use to maintain the 787 and is documented in the 787 Maintenance Review Board Report (MRBR). The report was accepted by the Maintenance Review Board, an FAA organization composed of specialists who review and accept maintenance requirements."


User currently offlineNCB From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (6 years 21 hours ago) and read 12949 times:



Quoting Flyglobal (Reply 4):
I predict (based on knowledge today) EIS will be somewhere July - Sept 2010 finally

That is only achievable if everything works out ok, including the April schedule for first flight, which I'm afraid, has potential for being delayed again. You know how it works, Boeing have to come up with these dates in order to keep the customers waiting.

I'd be surprised if everything works out ok.

The B787 has little in common with the A380 but the A380's delays only came after the flight testing program was initiated. There will be some new issues as with any new model and that will ask for some more patience. I think that the B787 will have some issues keeping up with its promised empty weight therefore losing big on performance. Boeing will surely try to put the 787 on a weightwatchers program, the question is whether they would do it before EIS or after EIS as was done with the A380. The 5%/4.5 ton overweight at EIS cited by several sources including Airbus's unfamous report may not be acceptable for delivery. In comparison, the A380 supposedly had a 2%/5ton overweight.

My guess for certification is end of 2010, EIS in 2011 but not earlier. It's a guess, nothing more.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31420 posts, RR: 85
Reply 15, posted (6 years 21 hours ago) and read 12697 times:
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Quoting NCB (Reply 14):
The B787 has little in common with the A380 but the A380's delays only came after the flight testing program was initiated.

But the A380's issues were not part of the flight test program. The A380 successfully completed that program with no untoward issues that required fixes to be designed and then implemented.

My memory is a bit fuzzy on the whole thing, but as I recall, the problems were with the conduits for the IFE and other customer-installed systems. So once the first plane was sent to XFW to have a cabin put in, they discovered that the holes didn't line up and they could not install customer-supplied equipment. So production was halted while they addressed that problem, however the planes themselves continued to fly without incident in the interim, gaining data and uncovering and fixing niggling issues that would not have been found until SQ, EK and QF received their birds (and had likely been operating them for some time, due to the low total hours they'd be in operation until the fleet's grew).


User currently offlineSkyyKat From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (6 years 21 hours ago) and read 12698 times:



Quoting AirbusA370 (Reply 9):
Yes, but a 787 has only ~1/4 of the fuselage area

But 3/4 More complicated, and if I am not mistaken composite material presents more challenges to paint then aluminum


User currently offlineManfredj From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 1132 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (6 years 21 hours ago) and read 12663 times:

Is it more difficult to paint a 787 because of its composite structure? Typically what percentage does a manufacturer "pad" its weight/fuel burn numbers because of un-intended problems during construction?

If indeed this new information is correct, the amount of delays should be subsiding the closer we get to first flight.



757: The last of the best
User currently offlinePar13del From Bahamas, joined Dec 2005, 7666 posts, RR: 8
Reply 18, posted (6 years 21 hours ago) and read 12613 times:



Quoting Stitch (Reply 11):
Are they maybe stripping all the existing paint and re-painting it in NH colors. deciding that the house colors for the roll-out were enough?

Is this something that Boeing can do without NH consent, by that I mean conduct test flights on a new build a/c in the colours of the carrier who will take delivery, what happens if there is a crash and the pictures are all over the world showing the NH livery, not saying it would happen just asking a question.

I agree that stripping and re-painting now with the delays would be a good test, just wonder if they can do it using non-Boeing colours.

Thanks


User currently offlineCMHSRQ From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 999 posts, RR: 4
Reply 19, posted (6 years 21 hours ago) and read 12491 times:



Quoting Mrocktor (Reply 6):
Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 3):
Hardly matters whether first flight is happening a month sooner or later. The question is how realistic Q1 2010 is for first delivery and how much time it will take to restart and then ramp up production.

It matters. Its critical, actually, since the two things are not unconnected. If the plane flies in April, that leaves less than 12 months between first flight and first delivery. I can tell you right off the bat: its unrealistic.

When the plane actually flies, +12 months should indicate a possible delivery date. +18 if you want to be safe. More if there are significant issues discovered during the flight test campaign.

The article states: "However, the delay has given the company the opportunity to be well ahead on the balance of the certification program, 80% of which does not involve flight testing. Also, unlike other aircraft programs, Boeing and US FAA have agreed on all issues relating to 787 certification"

So maybe that timeline is realistic. The problem is I'm at a point where I just don't believe Boeing anymore. When that plane actually flies and I see it only then will I believe it.



The voice of moderation
User currently offlineTdscanuck From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 12709 posts, RR: 80
Reply 20, posted (6 years 20 hours ago) and read 12384 times:



Quoting Oykie (Reply 1):
I also see that there are uncertanties about when all 5 testplanes will take to the sky.

There are six, actually. Four RR and two GE. Although I'm not sure if any of the GE planes are doing testing that's required for certification of the basic airframe.

Quoting Oykie (Reply 1):
let's hope it turn out allot simpler to build the #003, #004 and #005 Silly (I know that for many reasons it will be simpler)

The level of completion for each frame has been going up, according to Boeing, so the travelled work (and hence build delay) should be dropping on each successive airframe.

Quoting AirbusA370 (Reply 2):
Second, don't wanna split hairs, but wasn't the first flight scheduled for Q1? April is actually Q2.

I thought the most recent press release said Q2.

Quoting AirbusA370 (Reply 2):
First, why do the need more than four weeks for the paint job?

You don't. That's just scheduled window...the actual painting doesn't take nearly that long although, as Vanguard737 noted, the Boeing house livery is a lot more complicated than a typical one and takes more time.

Tom.


User currently offline474218 From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 6340 posts, RR: 9
Reply 21, posted (6 years 20 hours ago) and read 12305 times:



Quoting SkyyKat (Reply 16):
But 3/4 More complicated, and if I am not mistaken composite material presents more challenges to paint then aluminum

How can that be, composite don't require a wash primer, alodine, etc as does aluminum? The composites I have worked with were lightly sanded, wiped down with solvent, primed and painted.


User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21583 posts, RR: 59
Reply 22, posted (6 years 20 hours ago) and read 11988 times:



Quoting Art (Thread starter):
According to ATW, the first 787 should have the fastener problems fixed by end 2008 and is expected to fly in April.

If this holds, it should be nice weather to go up to Seattle and watch the maiden flight. Well, at least not cold and rainy, just rainy...  Wink



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineFVTu134 From Russia, joined Aug 2005, 173 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (6 years 20 hours ago) and read 11823 times:



Quoting Oykie (Reply 1):
The aviation community needs to show that they can produce a plane in 2009 that is 20% more fuel efficient at least

I keep seeing this reference to the 20% pop up, but did you guys ever ask yourselves what those 20% refer to... i.e. what the base is what they are comparing to.

I remember (but cannot find the reference), that this question was once asked to good ole Randy and it seemed that the 20% was in reference to the "current flying (boeing) aircraft". What Randy was referring to was the B767ER. Now if to count that the A330 is already a tad more efficient then the B767 and with both oil at low points again and not about to rise due to low demand, as well as very little financing available, my guess is that not much economy will be left when compared to the A330.
Not trying to start a war here, just picking up on something I've seen appear over and over again and people seem to think that it refers to the A330 and current generation aircraft (considering they are already half a generation newer then the 767)

FVTu134



who decided that a Horizon should be HORIZONtal???
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31420 posts, RR: 85
Reply 24, posted (6 years 19 hours ago) and read 11792 times:
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Quoting Par13del (Reply 18):
Is this something that Boeing can do without NH consent,..

I guess it depends on whether or not NH wants ZA001 delivered in their colors or in Boeing's. A few airlines do share their tail liveries with Boeing's fuselage liveries on one of their planes (Air China's 744 and the 737s of LionAir, Alaska and Ryanair come to mind) so it is possible all Boeing would do is repaint the tail in NH's colors and add their name to the fuselage top.

As for worries about crashing, ZA002 will almost certainly be painted in NH colors (the tail rudder is in NH's colors) and it will be flying, as well. So if there is a critical flight-safety issue currently unknown to Boeing, ZA002 might very well go down instead of ZA001. Or even DL could see ZA003 or ZA004 crash in their colors (since I would be surprised if they took either plane in NW's colors, assuming they don't defer and those planes are assigned to another customer).


25 Nomadd22 : Not sure where 4 weeks for painting is coming from. Rollout to the paint shop at the end of February, and finished March 2nd.
26 Aerodog : The December 6, 2004 issue of Aviation Week, p.62, Walter B. Gillette, V.P. 787 Engineering, was quoted as follows: The 787 will have 20% better fuel
27 Ikramerica : compared to the 767-300ER, though.
28 Revelation : Yes, the comparison is with 767. I'm presuming this is Boeing would have a lot more data about 767 than A330 to serve as a basis of comparison. There
29 Glideslope : Makes sense in some ways, but not in others. Would NH want it's colors on if there were some tragedy? While a good point I say House Livery.
30 Keesje : Don't wanna stir the pot, but in hindsight, what did the 900 Dreamliner sales prove in your opinion?
31 Thorben : Efficient systems and synergy do not really make sense IMHO. However, if this is over a 767, how would it compare to an A330 with the same engine tec
32 Revelation : That there's huge demand for a plane that meets the specs that Boeing provided. Hopefully the 787 will get there. Same for A350 with its 500 or so or
33 WingedMigrator : For reference, the 777 program took 138 days to get four birds airborne. And that program took a whole year to get from maiden flight to EIS. Might t
34 OyKIE : That is what I thought as well. But the article says 5 test airframes.... I got it from the book "Boeing 787 Dreamliner - flying redefined" a book I
35 NQYGuy : Best of luck to Boeing in getting these quinks ironed out- look forward to seeing it in the sky!
36 Stitch : Again, ZA002 will be in NH colors and will fly within a few months of ZA001 and will be in the air a significant period of time, as well.
37 Dynamicsguy : Maybe the reason for the relatively long delay is that most resources have been thrown at fixing the fasteners on LN 1 to get the airplane in the air
38 Ruscoe : My guess on the long wait for LN002 is that all the effort ( people) are going into 001, thus neglecting 002. Ruscoe.
39 WingedMigrator : Not on a per-seat basis. On a per-seat basis. Anyway, you should take all these percentages with a grain of salt. It looks like the first 20 - 100 ai
40 Aerokiwi : Ok so I'm a complete noob when it comes to technical issues in aviation, but I'd like to ask something that I've wondered about the 787 programme for
41 Tdscanuck : Why not? Tightly integrated systems like airplane often get into spirals of improvement (or spirals of disaster) because of the interdependance of ev
42 Nomadd22 : Weren't the early 7E7 fuel burn numbers based on the advertised 8 across configuration? I would have thought they'd change some after 9 wide became th
43 SPR773 : Good Luck to Boeing as it is wonderful news too...!!!! Their stock will show that effect over the days to come....however facing this recession in the
44 Rheinwaldner : The figures in the 787 book seem optimistic. That was before the weight started to grow (the 789's ZFW has risen nearly 20t since 2003!). Your signat
45 AirbusA370 : What is the status of the static test frame? It was painted and afterwards were the misinstalled fasteners supposed to be changed. Is it already back
46 Post contains links NYC777 : I've gotten some new information on the 2nd Dreamliner, ZA002 or LN 2. Please see here for that info: http://nyc787.blogspot.com/2008/12/l...eyond-imp
47 Post contains links Pianos101 : But all previous airplanes were metal. You're never going to get a perfect fit with metal, and if any metal airplane had the same gap as L/N 1 did be
48 OyKIE : It was indeed! Nope Agreed the initial planes will not reach this number, but the question from FVTu134 was were I got my number from. So I qouted my
49 Tdscanuck : I don't think the static test frame was ever painted...I think the fatigue frame was, because that rig is outside. Boeing identified three static tes
50 Frigatebird : Wasn't there also the issue that LN2 needed to be ready for some tests before LN1 could make its maiden flight? I can remember something was mentione
51 NYC777 : Vibration tests need to be done on LN 2 before first flight of LN 1. I think that's what you are referring to.
52 NYC777 : Well Chris Wallace made an excellent point in that whatever they do on LN 1 they're going to do on LN 2 as they don't want to have seperate productio
53 Stitch : Thank you. But it is one of the reasons why I believe Boeing has spent so much time, effort, energy and money to complete ZA001 even when it arrived
54 Dynamicsguy : Yep, ground vibration testing. This would require a structurally complete airframe, but not necessarily with all systems installed.
55 474218 : Boeing has millions of dollars invested in the first 787 there is no way they could scrap it. Boeing will not be provided a "Production Certificate" u
56 747400sp : Just get these puppies in the air already! I want to see how they fly and I do not want Boeing to loss any 787 orders, mainly QF, VS and NZ orders.
57 Tdscanuck : They don't need to do the same things on LN1 as LN2 to have one production certificate (no two airframes ever have exactly the same production steps)
58 474218 : With the current state of the world economy, delays in the 787 program may prevent cancellations, not cause them.
59 WingedMigrator : There's no such thing. A production certificate applies to an assembly line and associated processes, not to individual aircraft. With a production c
60 Tdscanuck : That's true, but it is possible to have some aircraft produced under one production certificate, and others under another if different processes were
61 Post contains links Khobar : "According to Boeing, the new 787 Dreamliner will be 20 percent more fuel efficient than the comparable midsize 767 or Airbus A330 by using new engin
62 Astuteman : It was saved more by better-than-expected L/D, than engine SFC. Which doesn't alter your point, though.... IIRC Boeing themselves have said that ther
63 Khobar : "While the first six aircraft built for testing and certification will exceed optimum weight, the focus is on meeting weight targets from the seventh
64 DocLightning : I still think it's 1q 2010. I hope I'm wrong, but I doubt it.
65 Astuteman : Thanks for the clarification, my friend. Rgds
66 Nomadd22 : Has the weight gain on the -9 hurt the idea of the -10 being a simple stretch with a 4 wheel bogey since there's not as much room for growth?
67 Post contains links Rheinbote : Seattle Times: Boeing to deliver 787-9 to Air New Zealand 2 years later than original date http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...gy/2008554259_webdre
68 Stitch : Well Boeing and the suppliers are already well along in component manufacturing for a number of planes, so I can see the first 20 (minimum) being over
69 Khobar : Well, I hope it is clarification and not wishful thinking, what with how the 787 program has gone thus far. Let's keep our fingers crossed that the w
70 DocLightning : Yeah, but the trade-off is that it can do things that an A330 can't do. Like SFO-MEL
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