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Frontier, Midwest What's The Latest?  
User currently offlineBillReid From Netherlands, joined Jun 2006, 1012 posts, RR: 0
Posted (5 years 9 months 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 8261 times:

What is the latest. Its very quiet out there which has me very worried.

Will Midwest make it to the summer?
What is the bankruptcy exit strategy for Frontier, and will they make it?


Some people don't get it. Business is about making MONEY!
58 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineEnilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7192 posts, RR: 13
Reply 1, posted (5 years 9 months 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 8106 times:



Quoting BillReid (Thread starter):
Will Midwest make it to the summer?

IMHO the only issue is whether YX will become a virtual airline flying zero planes for itself and contracting everything else out.

Quoting BillReid (Thread starter):
What is the bankruptcy exit strategy for Frontier, and will they make it?

They need more cash and soon. If they get it they will probably emerge from Ch11 by Summer. IMHO they will exit Ch11.


User currently offlineKnope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2914 posts, RR: 30
Reply 2, posted (5 years 9 months 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 7967 times:

Because Midwest is privately owned now, the stream of public information has slowed to an occasional trickle. That is sharp contract to recent years when the buyout battle lead to significantly more public information than normal.

Without a doubt Midwest posted massive losses earlier this year, if for no other reason than the huge costs of their restructuring, including the removal of all the Skyway aircraft and the M80s. We have virtually nothing to know their financial results outside of one-time restructuring costs, however. The financially puzzle is changing for all airlines has the cost of fuel plummets but the recession stunts demand. For many airlines in difficult financial situations, survival is not so much based on direct, immediate profit or loss but on access to credit and cash management. Sometimes companies seeing improving operational fortunes still go under because they can't successfully rework credit when it comes due. Ownership by TPG gives Midwest financial access they would not have on their own, but that is no get out of jail free card. Where the tight credit market alone might have been the breaking point to force an independent Midwest under, TPG is unlikely to let that destroy their investment. Midwest's financial needs are pocket change to TPG. But the flip side is that TPG expects a return on investment, and turning Midwest into merely a survivor is not enough. TPG won't throw good money after bad for long if it's clear that the best prospects for Midwest is avoiding shutdown.

We do know that earlier this fall TPG invested further in Midwest, along with Republic as part of the E170 deal. In my opinion, that suggests two things. (1) TPG is pleased enough in Midwest's actions and results to invest further, and (2) TPG's investment was contingent on Midwest finding further ways to improve their budget and balance sheet, hence the necessity of the Republic deal. Certainly this further investment shows that TPG did not believe Midwest was a lost cause, but the Republic aspect shows they are not a sugar daddy.

A key ongoing issue we should hear about fairly soon (due to arbitration) is negotations between the company and the pilot and inflight unions. From what I've heard the company is continuing to internally to prepare to add the 170 to Midwest's certificate so they can operate them, but the unions need to come to an agreement with the company as part of that process.


User currently offlineN7190JR From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 108 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (5 years 9 months 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 7900 times:

I can't see delta let their 47% stake go down the tubes. I honestly think after their done integrating northwest, and Midwest is still up the creek, we may see a takeover. Also word on the block is delta wants 717s.

As for frontier, I honestly think they would be a great match for jetblue. B6 would be able to take their Mexico routes and run. I am not sure if their engines are compatible, but they can dump the a318 for e190.

N7190JR



The Only Way Up is Up: KEEP CLIMBING
User currently offlineBillReid From Netherlands, joined Jun 2006, 1012 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (5 years 9 months 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 7689 times:



Quoting N7190JR (Reply 3):
Also word on the block is delta wants 717s.

Interesting, first I have heard of this.
Is it stictly on the street or is there something backing this up?
Didn't B close the line, if so why would DL want a Dino even though it is fairly new.



Some people don't get it. Business is about making MONEY!
User currently offlineMKENut From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 699 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (5 years 9 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 7475 times:



Quoting N7190JR (Reply 3):
Also word on the block is delta wants 717s.

I think Boeing is looking for a home for the 25 YX 717's but I doubt DL wants them. The big question for YX is what happens when Boeing takes back the remaining 9 - 717's? Is YX working to get more E-Jets?


User currently offlineAzstar From United States of America, joined May 2005, 620 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (5 years 9 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 7434 times:

Frontier is not struggling with load factors, they are struggling with yield. As long as WN continues to add flights to DEN trying to force F9 into liquidation the yields will never be high enough to sustain profitibility. However, having said that, F9 is a pretty popular airline with most travelers. The product they offer is superior to most airlines, at very low fares.

User currently offlineCOERJ145 From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 1421 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (5 years 9 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 7425 times:



Quoting N7190JR (Reply 3):
I am not sure if their engines are compatible, but they can dump the a318 for e190.

F9 uses CFM-56's and B6 uses the IAE V2500s. The F9 A318s should remain in the fleet. AFAIK, they have better hot and high performance than the E190. B6 could also use another western/mountain hub besides slot restricted LGB and Southwest dominated OAK.


User currently offlineCIDflyer From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 2307 posts, RR: 3
Reply 8, posted (5 years 9 months 3 days ago) and read 7339 times:



Quoting N7190JR (Reply 3):
As for frontier, I honestly think they would be a great match for jetblue. B6 would be able to take their Mexico routes and run.

I've always thought JetBlue and Frontier would make a good merger myself. Could become a true national LCC player by adding the DEN hub as the route map would be a little more filled out.


User currently offlineCOERJ145 From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 1421 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (5 years 9 months 3 days ago) and read 7254 times:



Quoting MKENut (Reply 5):

I think Boeing is looking for a home for the 25 YX 717's but I doubt DL wants them. The big question for YX is what happens when Boeing takes back the remaining 9 - 717's? Is YX working to get more E-Jets?

Hello AA. Replacement aircraft until the EMB190s arrive.  Wink


User currently offlineTSRA From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 214 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (5 years 9 months 3 days ago) and read 7228 times:

Quoting CIDflyer (Reply 8):
I've always thought JetBlue and Frontier would make a good merger myself. Could become a true national LCC player by adding the DEN hub as the route map would be a little more filled out.

Could you imagine FL, F9, and B6 joining to make the "Mega LCC"?

[Edited 2008-12-23 15:09:03]

User currently offlineAtomsareenough From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 566 posts, RR: 2
Reply 11, posted (5 years 9 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 7104 times:



Quoting CIDflyer (Reply 8):

I've always thought JetBlue and Frontier would make a good merger myself.

what about F9 and VX? sure, the business models are different, but the equipment matches, and maybe the aircraft could be redistributed over time to fit a more unified strategy.

of course, this is just idle talk all around, though. intriguing to think about, but not at all likely to happen.


User currently offlineMKE22 From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 1143 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (5 years 9 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 7068 times:



Quoting TSRA (Reply 10):
Could you imagine FL, F9, and B6 joining to make the "Mega LCC"?

Uhh.. No???...

Quoting COERJ145 (Reply 9):
Hello AA. Replacement aircraft until the EMB190s arrive. Wink

Can you say that the 712s were retired shortly after the merger with TWA.. They probably wouldn't bring them back. And replace what?



If Your not pissed, your not trying
User currently offlineYx302 From United States of America, joined Nov 2008, 115 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (5 years 9 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 7021 times:

delta was looking at 5 ex yx 717s for delta shuttle but havent heard any updates in the last few weeks. and if boeing does pull the remaining 717s from yx there have been talks with embraer on bringing E190s to midwest.

User currently offlineWN700Driver From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (5 years 9 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 6964 times:



Quote:
Could you imagine FL, F9, and B6 joining to make the "Mega LCC"?

I think F9, VX, & B6. Forget FL.Their service is good, but ATL? Maybe not so much. That and their equipment doesn't match. Yeah I know that B6 & F9 power their aircraft differently, but there are enough of each type in the fleet that only anetters would worry about the mismatch. It would be profitable.
You'd have Red Airbus strong on transcon, Blue Airbus strong in the NE region and Florida markets, and Green Airbus with a lot of strength in the Midwestern regions. You'd basically be left with an Airbus operating WN. Not a bad idea now I think of it. Some one should write those three a letter.


User currently offlineCOERJ145 From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 1421 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (5 years 9 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 6953 times:



Quoting MKE22 (Reply 12):
Can you say that the 712s were retired shortly after the merger with TWA.. They probably wouldn't bring them back. And replace what?

Replacing the F100s that were retired in 2004. This would free up aircraft used on routes too small for mainline and too big for Eagle. A 717 would be perfect for routes like ORD-BDL or ORD-HPN, which are Eagle routes. AFAIK they used to send MD80s on these routes. The Eagle fleet is being stretched to the limits with the Saab retirement. It would allow some routes to be upgraded to mainline while freeing up MD80s from routes that can't support aircraft that large, or free up ERJs from routes that have higher demand.


User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25279 posts, RR: 85
Reply 16, posted (5 years 9 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 6932 times:
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Quoting BillReid (Thread starter):
Its very quiet out there which has me very worried.

Quiet? Suely you don't mean quiet about Frontier?

There have probably been more threads relating to Frontier than any other airline except Delta.

Someone said there had been "umpteen" and there have been at least four just this month:

http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo...eneral_aviation/read.main/4251055/

http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo...eneral_aviation/read.main/4243869/

http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo...eneral_aviation/read.main/4240877/

http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo...eneral_aviation/read.main/4234977/

That's not including the various threads ("WN at LGA" eg) that somehow involve Frontier.

Quoting TSRA (Reply 10):
Could you imagine FL, F9, and B6 joining to make the "Mega LCC"?

Yikes. Why would you want it?

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25414 posts, RR: 49
Reply 17, posted (5 years 9 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 6729 times:



Quoting Knope2001 (Reply 2):
Because Midwest is privately owned now, the stream of public information has slowed to an occasional trickle

Well they still must report some basic information to the DOT.

According to this they posted a $56.5 loss in the 3 months ended September 30th, which included a $50.1mil write down. They received $30mil from 'affiliate proceeds' (presume TPG) during the quarter and ended it with mere $5.3mil in unresttricted cash!.



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineTsra From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 214 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (5 years 9 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 6638 times:



Quoting MKE22 (Reply 12):
Uhh.. No???...



Quoting Mariner (Reply 16):
Yikes. Why would you want it?

I was being facetious. I should of put a sarcasm tag with my statement...

My crystal ball is not what it used to be but I believe F9 will come out of bankruptcy a stronger, better run airline.

YX is some what like a mushroom;
it is in the dark and being fed the brown smelly stuff (from TPG/Republic/DL-NW).

The good thing about mushrooms are if you feed it correctly, they spread out and grow big, strong and numerous. If you are not careful, the mushroom never matures and just ends up being a big pile of the stinky stuff. I hope YX will come out of this more than just a shadow of its former self and do very well. I would guess some smart people at TPG/Republic/YX have a good plan in place to get YX where they need to be. If not, maybe they should make a phone call to DEN and ask for some advise from a smart man named Sean...


User currently offlineKnope2001 From United States of America, joined May 2005, 2914 posts, RR: 30
Reply 19, posted (5 years 9 months 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 6480 times:



Quoting LAXintl (Reply 17):
Well they still must report some basic information to the DOT.

According to this they posted a $56.5 loss in the 3 months ended September 30th, which included a $50.1mil write down. They received $30mil from 'affiliate proceeds' (presume TPG) during the quarter and ended it with mere $5.3mil in unresttricted cash!.

Indeed airlines are required to disclose financial information each quarter to the DoT. However those stats can be misleading. Over the years I've tried periodically to make them foot out with the 8K and quarterly investor disclosures for public companies. Sometimes they make some sense, sometimes they foot out only with some caveats, and other times they don't foot out at all. For non-public companies, we usually have no word of explanation from the company, so it's harder to know what's what.

A good example is Midwest's "cash" total. Here's what they reported for "cash" in the past 7 quarters:

2007 Q1 $111.0m
2007 Q2 $149.2m
2007 Q3 $136.7m
2007 Q4 $140.3m
2008 Q1 $99.4m
2008 Q2 $9.7m
2008 Q3 $5.3m

These numbers taken at face value would suggest Midwest kept a consistant and improving cash position in 2007. Then they burnt through nearly all of if very quickly...$40m in the 1st quarter of 2008 and another $90m in the 2nd quarter of 2008. But then in the 3rd quarter suddenly they cut that cash burn down to just under $4.5m.

That doesn't make sense...at least not if one thinks of "cash" in the conventional term.

The problem with numbers like those reported to the DoT is that they are (we assume) factually accurate, but not necessarily meaningful in the way we'd like them to be. In this specific example, I suspect that the necessity of holding major assets as cash (or cash-equals) fell greatly under the new ownership structure of Midwest. Some other airlines which are subsidiaries of larger companies show remarkably small amounts in the cash column. American Eagle (MQ), a sub of AMR, reported a mere $800k in cash last quarter, down from $3m the prior quarter.

The change in Midwest's reported cash is primarily about accounting, not about air transportation. I'm not doubting that Midwest lost (and may be continuing to lose) a great deal of money in 2008, and the notion of a $5.5m ongoing loss in the quarter plus a $50.1m one-time writedown doesn't seem far out of line given fuel prices and the events of the quarter. But these DoT numbers do not necessarily tell us what they might seem to.


User currently offlineTZTriStar500 From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 1452 posts, RR: 8
Reply 20, posted (5 years 9 months 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 6443 times:

Quoting MKENut (Reply 5):
I think Boeing is looking for a home for the 25 YX 717's but I doubt DL wants them. The big question for YX is what happens when Boeing takes back the remaining 9 - 717's? Is YX working to get more E-Jets?

Yes, Boeing is actively marketing all 25 aircraft. I am working on a revised interior engineering bid from BCC for all 25 in an all coach 110 pax configuration. The DL thing is nothing but a rumor and they are not currently shopping for them if they ever were in the first place. I have heard that Mexicana Click is very close to getting these and the all coach configuration makes sense with this.

[Edited 2008-12-23 20:33:13]


35 years of American Trans Air/ATA Airlines, 1973-2008. A great little airline that will not be soon forgotten.
User currently offlineEnilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7192 posts, RR: 13
Reply 21, posted (5 years 9 months 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 6251 times:



Quoting N7190JR (Reply 3):
I can't see delta let their 47% stake go down the tubes.

That was the stake before TPG made a lifeline equity injection. DL has since been majorly diluted...possibly to virtually nothing.

Quoting CIDflyer (Reply 8):
I've always thought JetBlue and Frontier would make a good merger myself. Could become a true national LCC player by adding the DEN hub as the route map would be a little more filled out.

IMHO Frontier will be involved in no merger that doesn't result in the number large DEN players being reduced to 2. Nobody is going to want to merge their way into a 3 way war any time soon.


User currently offlineSkyguyB727 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (5 years 9 months 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 6247 times:



Quoting N7190JR (Reply 3):
I can't see delta let their 47% stake go down the tubes.

I wasn't aware that Delta had any stake at all in YX. NW wrote off their entire investment in YX before the DL merger was approved.


User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25279 posts, RR: 85
Reply 23, posted (5 years 9 months 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 6240 times:
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Quoting SkyguyB727 (Reply 22):
NW wrote off their entire investment in YX before the DL merger was approved.

It was my understanding that they wrote off the value of the investment, not the shareholding itself.

 confused 

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineBobnwa From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 6476 posts, RR: 9
Reply 24, posted (5 years 9 months 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 6119 times:



Quoting SkyguyB727 (Reply 22):
I wasn't aware that Delta had any stake at all in YX. NW wrote off their entire investment in YX before the DL merger was approved.

Yes, NW wrote off their investment in YX on there own books, but that does not mean they do not still own 47% of Midwest. It did not change that. Now DL owns NW so it owns the investment in YX.


25 TVNWZ : Internal book keeping. They still own 47% of the shares. They value those shares at $0. In the future, if they sell, they will account for any sale p
26 N7190JR : Welcome to my Respected users list. Thank you for clearing that up Merry Christmas and Seasons Greetings to all - N7190JR
27 OB1504 : They were retired due to unfavorable lease rates, not because AA didn't want/need them. The 717 would've been an excellent replacement aircraft for t
28 MKE22 : Then I say bring it on! I want to see those birds back in the skies.
29 Enilria : As I said, it is very unlikely they still hold that stake. TPG would be a bunch of morons for giving YX more cash while NWA/DL didn't participate unl
30 Bobnwa : Very nice explanation, but the fact remains that NW/DL still owns an equity stake in YX. It possibly has been diluted down, because of further invest
31 RJ777 : Did I miss something? When did Midwest file Chapter 11?
32 Enilria : I don't think anyone knows what the "net worth" of the company was at the time TPG injected equity, but I'm guessing it was close to zero. Because YX
33 Enilria : BTW, F9's performance for November should be released tomorrow or Monday. I expect it to be poor, but I've been wrong before.
34 Enilria : From another thread... I don't know if this is true, but it rings true with some of the things I've heard. I'm a little surprised it isn't located in
35 MKENut : Strange that FL would want to use Lynx as a regional airline for MKE connecting traffic. If they do, it would be great to see them try DLH - MKE. I t
36 EXAAUADL : YX doesnt have enough 717s to interest DL I dont think.
37 Enilria : That wouldn't be a bad choice, but initially I would look at markets they serve from DEN because they will need some common points. Lynx flies to FAR
38 MKE22 : Maybe it will be a little of ATL and MKE. I think MKE could turn into a 1st stage BWI-2ndary hub type operation IMO. Potential MKE markets- MSN, ATW,
39 Mariner : At the moment, it isn't either. It is a rumor, nothing more. There have been several rumors about Lynx. At one stage it was widely believed that they
40 MKE22 : Of course, I was only stating what FL could look at IF they had Lynx.
41 Mariner : I understand that and absolutely no harm in it. But, as I say, rumors on a.net quickly become assumed fact. A few years ago, I suggested that Frontie
42 Enilria : Well, we know that Lynx had plans to take 10 additional aircraft in short order that appear to have evaporated since the economy collapsed. They coul
43 UltimateDelta : Aren't they trying to get the Republic aircraft on their certificate?
44 Mariner : I have no evidence that they have "evaporated." mariner
45 MKENut : Sorry, I was thinking more in the line of E-190 aircraft after Boeing takes the remaining 9, 717's from YX.
46 Enilria : They wouldn't have asked the judge for authority to exercise the options unless they had a deal in hand. Further, the judge would not have granted th
47 Enilria : BTW, I expect F9 will report $4 million to 8 million in operating loss and $6 million to $12 million in net loss in November. The variance is driven b
48 Mariner : If they wanted the aircraft, or some of them, they had to exercise the options because they were due to expire. Because "the deal" they may have for
49 Enilria : They are well beyond the original option delivery dates so they must have gotten several extensions already. I don't think that is really an issue th
50 Mariner : It was an issue discussed on other boards in the weeks prior to the application to the court. I don't know that they were "close to an announcement."
51 Enilria : Perhaps, but with the economy now the manufacturers are desperately trying to hold on to their order/option book. They are not going to tell F9 that
52 Mariner : I have no idea why you keep dreaming up all these convolutions. What happened with the timing of the Q400 options was no surprise to me or several pe
53 Saab2000 : Please don't let the 50-seaters make a comeback. Seriously. They are miserable in most cases.
54 Mke717spotter : When's that supposed to happen?
55 TVNWZ : I believe the leases call for 60 or 90 day notices. something like that. May even be thirty days.
56 Knope2001 : Quoting Mke717spotter (Reply 54): When's that supposed to happen? I believe the leases call for 60 or 90 day notices. something like that. May even be
57 Knope2001 : duplicate post -- sorry[Edited 2008-12-29 14:38:57]
58 Sideflare75 : I believe it is 6 months, at least that's what I have been told at work, and no one has said that Boeing has hinted they want the planes back yet. Si
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