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Long-Term Aircraft Assignment: Chance Or Not?  
User currently offlineLincoln From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 3887 posts, RR: 8
Posted (5 years 3 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 2095 times:

I was checking on the status of my flight back home to Cleveland on Christmas day (25DEC, CO634) and I noticed that it's currently scheduled to be flown by ship #856 (757-300, N74856).

Checking my Flight Memory log, I discovered that ship 856 is one of seven of CO aircraft that I've had the pleasure of riding twice; out of curiosity, I checked discovered that both previous occassions I've been on #856 were 25DEC06 and 25DEC07 doing LAX-CLE.

So I'm just curious -- and I realize it could change at any moment -- if aircraft rotation is planned such that the same aircraft will be doing the same route on the same day for three consecutive years or just coincidence (it seems like extraordinarially long odds given the number of routes out there, maintenance schedules, route adds/deletions/upgrades/downgrades/etc.)

Lincoln


CO Is My Airline of Choice || Baggage Claim is an airline's last chance to disappoint a customer || Next flts in profile
2 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently onlineHAL From United States of America, joined Jan 2002, 2530 posts, RR: 53
Reply 1, posted (5 years 3 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 2092 times:

Guaranteed it's just coincidence. Routings are subject to so many variables that even a few days out can be iffy on getting the planned aircraft. Even for the aircraft you're scheduled to ride on Christmas day, I'd give a good percentage chance that it will be elsewhere when you board your flight.

HAL



One smooth landing is skill. Two in a row is luck. Three in a row and someone is lying.
User currently offlineLincoln From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 3887 posts, RR: 8
Reply 2, posted (5 years 3 months 3 weeks 4 days ago) and read 1903 times:

Should anyone be interested...

I guess it must be one hell of a coincidence, but N74856 did in fact operate 634 LAX-CLE last night, making it the third consecutive year that that particular aircraft operated that route, with me on board on December 25th.

This also makes ship 856 the only aircraft I've ridden on more than twice.


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With all of the factors involved in where an aircraft is on any given day, let alone what route that aircraft operates once it gets there it seems like the odds of doing it three times in a row on pure chance are astronomical but I don't know what else to say.

Happy Holidays!

Lincoln



CO Is My Airline of Choice || Baggage Claim is an airline's last chance to disappoint a customer || Next flts in profile
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