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When A380F Re-launch Will Fed Ex And UPS Order It?  
User currently online747400sp From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 3509 posts, RR: 2
Posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 11405 times:

I know both Fed Ex and UPS order A380Fs and then canceled their orders for A380Fs after Airbus had major delays with the program. I wonder, when Airbus re-lunch the A380F program, will Fed Ex and UPS re-order the A380F?

One of the reason Fed Ex order the A380F was because they could replace two MD11F flights with one A380F, this would help them save money.
I personally want to see an A380F in UPS colors.

The A380F make a great package freighter and it has the range to fly from LAX or SFO to NRT non stop, which means that they do not need to stop at ANC. This is an big advantage for both Fed Ex and UPS. So will they re-order the A380F?

153 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineRafflesKing From Singapore, joined Mar 2007, 314 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 11409 times:

Well I assume that the program will not relaunch without a commitment at time of the announcement from either FDX or UPS, or at least another major cargo carrier.

User currently offlineAlessandro From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 11342 times:

When? If is better. No I don´t think they want to invest in an A380-900F, probably launch customer someone whom already fly the A380-800.

User currently offlineArt From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3381 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 11336 times:

I wonder if Airbus will skip the A380-800F and wait until it is ready to launch the A380-900.

[Edited 2008-12-26 09:09:02]

User currently offlineDUALRATED From United States of America, joined May 2008, 1001 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 11334 times:



Quoting 747400sp (Thread starter):
will Fed Ex and UPS re-order the A380F?

Highly doubtful.



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User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 9981 posts, RR: 96
Reply 5, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 11230 times:
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Quoting 747400sp (Thread starter):
I wonder, when Airbus re-lunch the A380F program, will Fed Ex and UPS re-order the A380F?

Like the "when"  thumbsup   Smile

IF Airbus re-launch the A380F, I would guess, from their comments, that FX would almost certainly order it.
I guess the exam question is "Will there be enough demand?"

In the same way that the 748i's supporters argue that "a couple of dozen" orders pretty much make it worthwhile, on the back of the 748F (and I agree), I would argue the same for the A380F (on the back of the A380-800 pax). It won't take big numbers to justify the programme.

Prediction 1.
I don't think the A380F will be the next A380 variant we see......

In some ways, in my own mind, I liken the current A380-800 to the 772A...

Which grew into the 772ER and 773A (read 600 tonne A380-800R and A380-900(1000?) )...

Which then grew into the 772L and 773ER (read 625-630tonne A380-800LR and A380-900(1000?) ) R....

Remind me which airframe the 777F is based on? Oh yes! The 772LR  Smile

I don't see why Airbus should panic about launching an A380F just now.
They've got other priorities besides the A380, and (IMO) better A380 priorities than the A380F  crossfingers 

Prediction 2.
I've got my own personal bet that FX have already done a "handshake" deal with someone like EK.
We know Tim Clark (TC) of EK has made some great promises for his "2012" A380's.
For me that begs the question "What will he ultimately do with his heavy "pre-2012" A380's?

My guess? Sell them to FX for conversion to "F" versions, which will of course be less capable than a factory build, but be a fraction of the capital outlay for FX.
Win-win.
TC gets a sell-on market for his early, heavy, A380's, and FX get the A380F's they desire at less than 1/2 the price of factory builds (say).

Is that one of the drivers for EK ordering 58 A380's?  scratchchin 
Are the first 10 (20?) destined for FX?

Dunno.
Anyone else like the logic?  Smile

Rgds


User currently offlineEMBQA From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 9364 posts, RR: 11
Reply 6, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 11207 times:

Since both UPS and FDX have already placed orders to fill the A380 void, I highly doubt it.... shoot, I highly doubt you'll see any more significant A380 orders of any kind from now on.


"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog"
User currently offlineDUALRATED From United States of America, joined May 2008, 1001 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 11159 times:



Quoting EMBQA (Reply 6):
Since both UPS and FDX have already placed orders to fill the A380 void, I highly doubt it.... shoot, I highly doubt you'll see any more significant A380 orders of any kind from now on.

Agreed! there just is'nt a market for it . too bad Sad



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User currently offlineNycbjr From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 447 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 11098 times:

I came up close and personal on xmas eve with a Emirates A380, due to JFK delays we didn't taxi out till after 11pm (3hr delay), we were in an ERJ-145, and I look out the window and there was an enormous airplane, I realized it was a 380, it turned so it was head on with us, the wings are impressive!

Made our little RJ look like a cessna, hahah.. because of the time at night I couldn't take a pic.. but man that was cool!


User currently online747400sp From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 3509 posts, RR: 2
Reply 9, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 11066 times:



Quoting EMBQA (Reply 6):
Since both UPS and FDX have already placed orders to fill the A380 void, I highly doubt it.... shoot, I highly doubt you'll see any more significant A380 orders of any kind from now on.

That is sad, I wish Airbus could not get their act together, so the A380F could have been delivered on time! Now we going to see, Fed Ex 777F ( BORING) instead of what they should have had, which is an A380F.  Angry


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30654 posts, RR: 84
Reply 10, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 11047 times:
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It depends on if 5X''s plans have changed since moving from the A380-800F to the 777F, all of which they have recently pushed back deliveries on from one to two years. Once they take those 77Fs and put them into revenue service, if the mission plan proves successful, then I see no reason for them to not want to add A380-800Fs.

As for an A380-900F, I am inclined to think we won't see it. There was a reason Boeing went with the 777-200 chassis for the 777 freighter and I expect that will apply to the A380, as well, which will result in the A380-800F (possibly in a MTOW higher then 590t).


User currently offlineSEPilot From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 6837 posts, RR: 46
Reply 11, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 11046 times:



Quoting Astuteman (Reply 5):
Anyone else like the logic?

Yes, actually, I think this likely. I think that with the 748F dominating the market for new-build VLA freighters the A380F will have a difficult time competing. It makes far more sense to convert the early A380s, especially if (as it appears will be the case) the later ones will be far more capable.



The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
User currently offlineAlessandro From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 11026 times:



Quoting 747400sp (Reply 9):
That is sad, I wish Airbus could not get their act together, so the A380F could have been delivered on time! Now we going to see, Fed Ex 777F ( BORING) instead of what they should have had, which is an A380F.

Hold your horses, you´ll the MD-11 for a while longer since Fedex B777F has been postponed
at least 17 months.


User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 9981 posts, RR: 96
Reply 13, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 10964 times:
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Quoting EMBQA (Reply 6):
shoot, I highly doubt you'll see any more significant A380 orders of any kind from now on.

A brave prediction.

Quoting DUALRATED (Reply 7):
Agreed! there just is'nt a market for it

Or foolhardy.
I hope (and think) you're both wrong.
No matter.
Time will tell.

Rgds


User currently offlineLowrider From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 3220 posts, RR: 10
Reply 14, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 10952 times:



Quoting 747400sp (Thread starter):
This is an big advantage for both Fed Ex and UPS. So will they re-order the A380F?

Why would they? Both have plenty of aircraft on order and almost every freight carrier is putting some aircraft into storage due to lack of demand. Freight volume is way down all over the globe. Why buy an expensive, high capcity aircraft that is not compatible with much of the existing infrasturcture when you cannot fill all of your current aircraft?



Proud OOTSK member
User currently online747400sp From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 3509 posts, RR: 2
Reply 15, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 10934 times:



Quoting Astuteman (Reply 13):
Or foolhardy.
I hope (and think) you're both wrong.
No matter.
Time will tell.

Rgds

I agree. Yes I am a 747 fan, but I want to see the A380 become a success. I would like to see both 747-8Is and A380s on the runways 10+ years from now.


User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 9981 posts, RR: 96
Reply 16, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 10872 times:
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Quoting 747400sp (Reply 15):
I would like to see both 747-8Is and A380s on the runways 10+ years from now.

 highfive 
Nuff said.  yes 

Rgds


User currently offlineColumba From Germany, joined Dec 2004, 7058 posts, RR: 4
Reply 17, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 10719 times:



Quoting DUALRATED (Reply 4):
Highly doubtful.

Care to elaborate this statement.

I remember reading statements from the CEO of Fedex who was very disappointed when Airbus cancelled the program and he said that Fedex would order the plane as soon as Airbus relaunches it.
They would even consider converted A380 freighters when they will come available.



It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 9981 posts, RR: 96
Reply 18, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 10696 times:
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Quoting Lowrider (Reply 14):
Why would they? Both have plenty of aircraft on order and almost every freight carrier is putting some aircraft into storage due to lack of demand. Freight volume is way down all over the globe. Why buy an expensive, high capcity aircraft that is not compatible with much of the existing infrasturcture when you cannot fill all of your current aircraft?

Which is a fine and dandy answer for the next few years (in which we're unlikely to see an A380F anyway).
But in 5 years time?
In 10 years time?

The Opening Poster didn't time-bound his question.

Rgds


User currently offlineEBJ1248650 From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 1932 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 10655 times:



Quoting EMBQA (Reply 6):
shoot, I highly doubt you'll see any more significant A380 orders of any kind from now on.

Why?



Dare to dream; dream big!
User currently offlineEBJ1248650 From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 1932 posts, RR: 1
Reply 20, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 10644 times:



Quoting Lowrider (Reply 14):
Why would they? Both have plenty of aircraft on order and almost every freight carrier is putting some aircraft into storage due to lack of demand. Freight volume is way down all over the globe. Why buy an expensive, high capcity aircraft that is not compatible with much of the existing infrasturcture when you cannot fill all of your current aircraft?

In the short term, you're right. Now take into account the economy recovering in the next couple of years and production of consumables increasing with a corresponding need to ship them and I can see a further growth in the air freight business. I personally don't think the A380F is dead by a longshot. I think it's time will come but it's several years down the road.



Dare to dream; dream big!
User currently offlineLowrider From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 3220 posts, RR: 10
Reply 21, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 10605 times:

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 18):
Which is a fine and dandy answer for the next few years



Quoting EBJ1248650 (Reply 20):
In the short term, you're right

Freight would have to return to and exceed current levels to make such a move practical. Cargo companies are hunkering down for a protracted contraction of the economy. Current aircraft being parked combined with lower cost passenger fleet retirements over the next 5 to 10 years will most likely meet any growth needs. How many 747-400's have been mustered out in the past few years? How many more will go in the next 5? 10? The 767 has come into its own as a freighter, as has the 757, the A300, and the A310. Why buy a new A380 which will require new ULDs, loaders and so far can only operate to a handful of airports, when used aircraft are and will continue to available at less cost and on shorter notice? When you buy and aircraft out of the desert and send it for conversion, you can do so with a fairly high degree of certainty that it will be completed on time.

[Edited 2008-12-26 14:29:48]


Proud OOTSK member
User currently offlineEMBQA From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 9364 posts, RR: 11
Reply 22, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 10564 times:



Quoting Astuteman (Reply 13):
A brave prediction.

An honest prediction...

Quoting EBJ1248650 (Reply 19):
Why?

Just look at the orders over the last 8 years....more then half of the orders were place 6 years ago or more....



"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog"
User currently offlineEBJ1248650 From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 1932 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 10556 times:



Quoting Lowrider (Reply 21):
Freight would have to return to and exceed current levels to make such a move practical. Cargo companies are hunkering down for a protracted contraction of the economy.

Depends on how you define "protracted". I can see two or three years. But I remain confident the economy around the world will not only bounce back but grow significantly from the lessons learned during this period. You're right that the retired passenger 744s will find homes with many air freight companies, but bear in mind there are many such companies around the world. The really big air freight operations are going to be looking for ways to deliver freight more efficiently and I suspect some will look at the A380 as a way to haul a lot of freight in one flight to key cargo destinations rather than having to send two or three to those same destinations during the day.

Is this to suggest there will be a flood of A380Fs on the market should the plane go into production? I don't really think so. But I do believe there will be a need for it and it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see airliners we now view as only appropriate for passenger service going into production in freighter models as well. The 773, to me, seems a good candidate.



Dare to dream; dream big!
User currently offlineDUALRATED From United States of America, joined May 2008, 1001 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 10412 times:



Quoting Columba (Reply 17):
Care to elaborate this statement.



Quoting Columba (Reply 17):
I remember reading statements from the CEO of Fedex who was very disappointed when Airbus cancelled the program



Yeah I don't think Fred was very happy with that whole fiasco ...Not at all. Furthermore alternate arrangements for aircraft have already been made. I can assure you they will not launch a freighter model of the aircraft...too unreliable that it will ever enter service.

Quoting Columba (Reply 17):
They would even consider converted A380 freighters when they will come available.

This would be the only way I can see the A380 with FX way in the future, and converted aircraft are classic FX so that would be the best scenario for us to see them ever at FX.

Quoting EBJ1248650 (Reply 19):
Why?

For the umpteenth time, NO MARKET!



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25 PITrules : Probably the biggest reason both FX and 5X ordered the A-380 at the time was because of limited traffic rights to China. I don't remember exact number
26 413X3 : Fedex doesn't have the aircraft to compare with UPS and their brand new 744Fs. I wouldn't be surprised if FX went with a relaunch, just my guess.
27 Pilotpip : Fedex has done just fine competing without the volume of a 747 for years. If you can't fill it there's no reason to buy it.
28 Astuteman : FWIW, A380 orders between launch and EIS have been the same as, or higher than, most other widebody programmes before the 787 and A350... You make th
29 Post contains images Slz396 : I think that's a given: the next version will be either the A380-800R or the A380-900. Before I'd used to think Airbus would go for the -R version fi
30 Lowrider : But will the need be big enough. As stated above, it is only really useful to large parcel carriers. How many do you think Brown and Purple need and
31 Slz396 : How many widebody planes do the parcel operators FedEx, UPS and DHL operate? How many operate between hubs? How many of the routes they operate on se
32 Lowrider : I have a great imagination, too. I once imagined myself emperor of the world. I am quite well aware. However I don't think you will see any ready to
33 NCB : IMO Lowrider is right. The economy will resurect pretty soon. Before the crisis, the air freight segment was growing at an alarming pace and as soon
34 Stitch : Uh, on a frame-for-frame comparison, a 777F offers ~35% more volume and ~50% more payload weight lift then a DC-10-30F / MD-10F. It also offers 23m3
35 DUALRATED : First of all, neither one will order anything (like the A320/321) small ever again. For what market? and be specific. ? ? ? Overall the new build fre
36 NCB : Looks like I forgot a word there, thanks for pointing that out Stitch & Dual. I meant to say that the Fed Ex B777F order comes way short of replacing
37 KC135TopBoom : Are we going to even see the A-380, in any version, in production in 10 years? FedEx is also a pure package freighter. OTOH, UPS does heavy cargo air
38 DUALRATED : Yes that does An A320/737 is no comparison to a 757. Size, payload, and range it is apples and oranges. UPS does not operate the A310, and have state
39 Stitch : With FX deferring their 777Fs for a couple of years, I expect they would be deferring their A380-800Fs if those had still been on order and 5X might v
40 WAH64D : Without any shadow of a doubt! I think you are on drugs. A389 is a given, absolutely no doubt. FWIW, I don't think we will see an A388F inside of 10
41 Astuteman : I'd be interested to hear the logic that says we won't. IMO we'll see versions of the A380 still in production in 30 years time, including a -F. I su
42 NCB : I think that the jump from B722 to B752 will leave them with overcapacity on the thinner feeder routes. In that case, the A32XF/B73XF would be a bett
43 Astuteman : I missed one from my earlier post, by the way.... There patently obviously IS a market for the A380, as over 200 have been sold, and a number of airl
44 Astuteman : FWIW Slz396 misquoted there. David Sutton, Exec VP of fleet procurement at FedEx, said that he expected to see some 200 A380F's in service over the n
45 Columba : I think the people at Fedex will disagree with you here, they ordered 10 aircraft despite the fact that they never operated a 747 before. The reason
46 WAH64D : The points A'man makes above are pretty much incontravertible to anybody blessed with "unclouded" reasoning. I am certain however that the usual susp
47 NCB : Agreed! Also agree with Astuteman and WAH64D. The A380 is an exceptional aircraft and a great achievement of humanity. Let's welcome this form of hum
48 Gsosbee : There are two equations that will need to be answered: The first one is simple. The carriers have to be able to generate sufficient demand to fill an
49 EPA001 : As it will remain a mystery to me as well. You have again written some excellent posts here Astuteman. This time regarding the possible developments
50 Lowrider : It attracts both, and I could post examples of that from this and many other threads. While his forecast may be a more educated guess than many, it i
51 Post contains links and images WN700Driver : Highly unlikely. Although if there ever is freighter variant, this becomes the most likely possibility by default. An A380 freighter is like a bus de
52 EMBQA : Are you sure about that...? If they truly wanted the A380 they would have kept the orders on the books and just waited out the teething pains As poin
53 Stitch : Honestly, if the A380 becomes a successful passenger plane, but not a freighter, is that such a terrible thing? And by "successful" I mean replaces th
54 Dynkrisolo : Package carriers don't need high density capability. It's the other way around. The A38F v1.0 was designed for fairly low cargo density of 8 lbs/cu f
55 WAH64D : I think you may have misunderstood me. High density in the context of lots of packages between 2 freight hubs, not high weight packages. Volume may h
56 WN700Driver : Dnkykrisolo, I think I had that backward. The fact I was alluding to is that the difference is not trivial, nor easy to correct. Along those lines, Ai
57 NCB : Floor between decks can not be removed? Since when does Fed X transport T-rex's? The real reason of the cancellations was project freeze by Airbus. T
58 WN700Driver : Hehe, they don't. The logistics of putting LD containers up that high are cost prohibitive. Factor that in with the reality that the 380 can only lan
59 Kire : Most probably we will not see any A380F in the near future, I think they will build passenger planes, nothing else, 388 as well as 389, which will re
60 WAH64D : I think A380F would be far less restricted in the airports it could fly to. The biggest constraints at the moment are wingtip clearance at parking sp
61 NCB : I don't know, I don't think that the higher floor would make any difference. It would just be like loading a B747F and a B777F that is on top of it a
62 Astuteman : If I remember correctly, FedEx said that they needed lift, and couldn't wait for an unspecified time (a time which even some of the more optimistic a
63 KC135TopBoom : The problem, as I see it, for the A-380 is it is a neich airplane with limited mission capabilities, much like the B-717-200 (MD-95) was. IIRC the B-
64 Astuteman : From memory, he actually said he expected the bulk of them to be conversions. In fact, I actually think he was quoted as saying most would be convers
65 OldAeroGuy : It does require you to buy cargo loaders for the upper deck that are not required for any other airplane in your fleet. This not a trivial expense. T
66 AirNZ : As these are clearly definitive and bold statements could you please provide some evidence, or expertise, that enables you to so definitively state w
67 OldAeroGuy : I believe he is referring to this statement. The A380 version Astuteman is projecting would be capable of 18 hr flights if it is going to have range
68 Post contains links and images DUALRATED : There was a small market under 200 airframes, So what market is left? Besides the airlines who have already bought it and who have no need for more ,
69 WAH64D : Lat time I looked they both shipped packages. For the reasons I stated above, an A388F is a high volume package haulers dream come true on trunk rout
70 PPVRA : Given the state of the economy canceling the F for now has proven a doubly-wise decision for Airbus. Eventually we'll see it, but we need to dig ourse
71 747400sp : Yes they did, they got those 747s after Flying Tigers merge with them in the late 80's. Fed Ex replaced the 747s with MD11s. I believe Fed Ex retired
72 WingedMigrator : Quite neich indeed... if there is a neicher airplane, I haven't sheen it. Increasing MTOW does not affect wheelbase, turning radius or engine dimensi
73 Art : I have not yet seen any forecast for total A380 sales
74 Columba : You are right the A300s will possibly stay for another decade. I don´t think the MD 80 would make a good freighter 737NGF or A32xF would be an optio
75 Astuteman : So that's it? Airbus have sold every A380 they're ever going to? To be honest I find that so implausible, it beggars belief. No matter. I wish you an
76 Rheinbote : As long as production is behind demand for the A380 passenger version, I don't see how tinkering with a freighter version would make any sense - apart
77 SEPilot : I have no question that many variations of the A380 can be built that will perform fabulously. My point has been and remains that Airbus does not hav
78 Post contains links and images NCB : Very very neich The market that's left is called world population growth. Skies are already as saturated as ever and so are airports. China and India
79 777STL : I can think of several "small" Asian airlines that still have a VLA decision to make. Plus, the operational success of the 380 so far may garner some
80 AustrianZRH : Thank you very much for (another) educated post with facts rather than penis envy . Actually, they have sold even more than the market was. With the
81 SEPilot : Population growth alone will not do it; what is required is growth of the population that has the means to travel. With the world economy tanking tha
82 Stitch : The only real decision that will drive additional A380 family members is demand. When there is more demand for the A380-800HGW, A380-800R, A380-800F o
83 Gsosbee : SEPilot's response is dead on. Forget airplanes, for any business FREE CASH is king. Those with it dicatate conditions to those who do not have it. (
84 SEPilot : Don't forget that the 77L was done in conjunction with the 77W, which has been very successful. I suspect that the incremental costs of the 77L were
85 NCB : I disagree on every point made in this post, SEP. -The growth of the population that has the means to travel is growing as stated in my original post
86 Trex8 : unless Euro military procurment is radically different from the US' the A400M is a military procurement program, even if there are massive cost overu
87 EMBQA : When.....???? They'll need to average 30+ airplanes a year for the next 10 years to just hit break even.... and their current average is only 16.1(ta
88 SEPilot : Well, it certainly would be boring if we all agreed on everything. The effects, however, will have repercussions for some time to come. You may be co
89 Gsosbee : The A380 has a long way to go just to break even, much less spin off positive free cash flow. If Airbus is banking on India and China to provide the
90 Lowrider : It is a draw back in that operators will need buy new, specialized equipment for each station to for the sole purpose of servicing one deck on one ai
91 EPA001 : Technically spoken the break-even will be somewhere around 420-500 airframes. Before the production screw-up it was at around 250 airframes. No hard
92 Stitch : I would have to believe that no small portion of the A400M program's R&D and initial production costs are being paid for by the EU Ministries of Defen
93 Brilondon : The A380 project has to get its self up to full production on its existing customers. The present rate of deliveries makes it seem unlikely that they
94 Stitch : It's mostly a matter of opinion. The A380-800F is designed to carry more payload by weight and volume farther then any current or planned member of t
95 NCB : I also agree that there will be some after-shocks but 20 years is a bit long to my taste. Many people make a big deal out of each recession as if it
96 Gsosbee : Taking a write off and free cash flow are two entirely different things. For a program to be viewed as a financial success total revenues have to exc
97 DfwRevolution : The global economy will certainly recover in time, but the A380 program is a ticking clock, too. Widebody aircraft programs have historically enjoyed
98 DfwRevolution : Well, don't hold your breath. But the A380 was launched in 2000. If Airbus achieved an amazing 30 aircraft average* for the next decade, they still w
99 Stitch : I wonder if Airbus will really want to move to four planes a month. Their current backlog would be exhausted by around 2015 at that rate and they wou
100 EMBQA : Not when your current yearly sales average is half of that. Of the 198 orders placed half of those are 7 years old...!!! You're a smart guy... what d
101 FrmrCAPCADET : I suspect that the 380 will sell upwards of 400 frames, just given normal improvements that happen in the course of manufacturing. The great unknown i
102 WingedMigrator : Yeah, and if we had an eyeball in our a**hole we'd all have 20/20 hindsight! I'll tell you what's not acceptable: gross mismanagement of basic techni
103 Astuteman : Nothing could be further from the truth, in fact. As of Q3 2008, EADS net free cash stood at E8Bn (goodness knows how many $Bn), up nearly E2Bn in 12
104 Astuteman : If Airbus pushed this plane to the 600 tonnes I think any stretched version would be, it should haul 90 tonnes out to about 7 900Nm.. (with the curre
105 EPA001 : Thanks for providing the numbers Astuteman. I already knew that there is no shortage on cash at EADS, but your numbers backed that up pretty good. So
106 Gsosbee : I specified Airbus not the EADS parent. Actually you misread the EADS financial report. EADS had E8 billion on 01/07/08. At the end of the quater the
107 NCB : The big issue right now is that most slots through 2013 should already be booked (shifted with the delays) which leaves new customers with options to
108 EMBQA : At 895 airframes sold... 93 just this year... I think Boeing broke even and then some. I would not say 93 airframes is 'not many'[Edited 2008-12-29 1
109 Stitch : But that did not really happen until the start of Q4, at least here in the United States. I know Ireland's banking system collapsed earlier, but Aer
110 AirNZ : In answer to your question then.......and of which I'm sure the answer is clearly obvious if one thinks about it. If you look closely you'll perhaps
111 EMBQA : What the heck are you talking about.....???? I asked about the PBS TV Series not the actual production of the aircraft...!!!! I'd say they stopped pr
112 Stitch : An order is sale. Don't confuse a sale with a delivery, which it is not (at least as it applies to commercial airplanes, but it also applies to a num
113 KC135TopBoom : ???? That statement doesn't make any sense at all. My point is no matter how many A-380s are built, they will always be limited to just a few airport
114 Post contains links Astuteman : Lovely! See this ref. http://www.eads.com/xml/content/OF00000000400004/2/51/42326512.pdf Slide 12, (repeated slide 24) :- Net Cash Q3 2007 E4.23Bn Ne
115 Baroque : Yes, if they go on developing excessively costly programs such as the A380 and having cost over-runs, they will become the black hole of free cash in
116 Cerecl : I can't speak for India, but be assured that the hub of CZ, MU and CA (CAN, PVG and PEK) will be A380 ready if they are not already so. What I am mor
117 NCB : I think that it was earlier than that in the aircraft financing industry. Banks stopped giving credits to airlines in Q2 as oil prices were hiking, s
118 777STL : That's a good point, but not for the reasoning you're using. The 380 is much more economically constrained, i.e. few availible routes lucrative enoug
119 Stitch : Fair enough, but if Airbus expected the bulk of new A380 orders to come from those carriers, that kind of worries me because those carriers would lik
120 NCB : Indeed, I agree. I think that the biggest bulk of orders was expected from Asia for the 380. From Chinese, Indian, Japanese and Korean airlines. It i
121 Stitch : I do. And it isn't. Still, they're all going out at a profit, so...
122 Baroque : Roughly, how are A380 margins in Dec 2008 compared with those in July 2008? In relative terms not absolute numbers. Not after predictions, just the h
123 Stitch : Yes, but Airbus was magnificently hedged through 2007, so they were better-insulated then many assume they were.
124 Astuteman : I'm almost certain Wave 1 A380's won't make Airbus a profit (I recall Airbus saying this when the last delay was announced). Although funnily enough,
125 Stitch : My attempted point was that even with the deals made, based on production costs they were profitable. Yes, the program costs would put them in the re
126 Post contains images EPA001 : Now that is a good thought to hold on to in 2009! Happy new year to everybody, let 2009 be the year of the B787, and I mean this in a positive way  
127 Astuteman : Says it all! I would guess that they will, for the same reason..... At least declaring the exceptional losses before they actually happen, a) gets al
128 Art : IIRC the A400M program is radically different - Airbus has to eat the cost overuns. I thought that Airbus had to pay a RLI royalty on every aircraft
129 AustrianZRH : Additionally, one has to see that if Airbus had not developed the A380, nearly every A380 sale would have probably resulted in a B77W or a B744/748 s
130 Gsosbee : The costs were not "paid for" they were written off (i.e. the common stockholders of EADS took the hit). Big difference. Bottom line the entire A380
131 Revelation : That's one way to look at it. Another interesting way to look at it is a tactical move rather than a strategic. As mentioned above, at the time Airbu
132 EPA001 : I think several posters already gave a good insight into the ever improving financial position of Airbus and its parent EADS. The A380 is contributin
133 Revelation : Very good post. I perhaps A350 to be more of a drag on the bottom line than you do, but still, I like your well thought out steps. One follow-up: It w
134 Post contains images EPA001 : I think you are absolutely correct on this. But I see this as a logical step which can not be avoided if a program stays in prodction for a very long
135 Trex8 : exactly, the Euro governments wanted a new military transport, set up a program and did not want to start a new company a la Panavia, Eurofighter lik
136 Stitch : The two biggest problems with the 777-200 were that it weighed too much (compared to the A330-300) and it lacked the structure to allow it to carry a
137 Post contains links Art : An extract from an article in DefenceNews citing AFP at the end of Septeber 2008: "Der Spiegel weekly, trailing its Sept. 22 publication, cited a let
138 EPA001 : I agree. And they are already doing that. My thoughts were more about the A380 after 2015-2020. The developed improvements, on top of the ones they a
139 Astuteman : To quote yourself back at you - "this will be dictated by demand" .... Given the commitment to the A350, I personally don't see any significant A380
140 Revelation : Like every aircraft before it, at some point the cost of maintaining staff, production facilities and supply chains will get to be too much. As you s
141 Astuteman : The tranportation costs are absolutely trivial compared to the overall product cost - probably about 1%, at the very most 2% . And you would need som
142 Rheinbote : Not sure about that. I don't think the cost of operating 747LCFs is worse than operating a fleet of A300-600STs plus ships plus road transport. Safe
143 SEPilot : I suspect you're right. The point of it is that all costs have to be considered, and all are interrelated. No matter where assembly is done, and how
144 Astuteman : The point that was made was that the A380's "specialised" shipping and road transport seem to be "very costly". They're not. For what its worth, ship
145 NCB : You know, I think the road convoy part was really stupid by Airbus. Not money-wise but logistics wise. The guys who have designed it must have though
146 Stitch : Any rail is hideously expensive and heavy rail is doubly so. I could see a line running hundreds of millions, if not billions, literally. And it coul
147 Astuteman : See reply below Rgds
148 SEPilot : I would argue with this. Having been in the trucking business, whenever you have to have a dedicated vehicle for transporting anything the costs are
149 Revelation : More exactly, the context was that as the A380 production run winds down, the cost of keeping its transport infrastructure to transport a diminishing
150 Astuteman : It is, insofar as the equipment is tailor-made for the job. That said, Ro-Ro operations aren't particularly high-tech. Neither are barge operations.
151 Revelation : Yes, perhaps. The largest thing I've ever put onto the road is a glider trailer being towed by a pickup truck, and to me, that was quite the adventur
152 Post contains links Keesje : In the past people looked at a A340-600 beluga offering 118 tons capasity with a range of 3000 nm. http://www.allaboutguppys.com/beluga/gupy331a.jpg
153 Revelation : I love the one-off transporters like the Guppy, Super Guppy, Beluga and the Pickle. I'd love to see an A340 or even A380 based Beluga II. I realize i
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