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F9 Dropping To Single Flight To MCO?  
User currently offlineDfanucci From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 215 posts, RR: 0
Posted (5 years 8 months 3 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 4652 times:

Interesting...

It looks as if F9 is only planning one flight out of DEN to MCO for the foreseeable future as I can't find anything on Frontiers site saying otherwise.

This shocks me a little bit, as I would think that even with United and Southwest flying non stops out of DEN, F9 would not reduce from 2 to 1...

Thoughts?

-D

34 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineStarAlliance38 From United States of America, joined Jan 2008, 1445 posts, RR: 3
Reply 1, posted (5 years 8 months 3 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 4618 times:

Would this affect FL and F9's partnership? I kinda think it will. I never realized that F9 only had two flights anyways. That is kinda weird.


Roar, lion, roar
User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25240 posts, RR: 85
Reply 2, posted (5 years 8 months 3 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 4571 times:
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Quoting Dfanucci (Thread starter):
It looks as if F9 is only planning one flight out of DEN to MCO for the foreseeable future as I can't find anything on Frontiers site saying otherwise.

This shocks me a little bit,

I'm not sure why you're shocked, it's been that way for some time.

Like LAS, MCO has seen declining numbers and several airlines have reduced service. Orlando authorities are expecting at least a 10% decline in tourist tax in 2009.

http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/bus...ation/2008/05/delta-alaska-to.html

"Delta Air Lines is eliminating nonstop service between Orlando International Airport and at least five more cities, and Alaska Airlines is canceling daily flights to Portland, Ore., as U.S. carriers try to stop worsening losses from still-rising oil prices."

Also Mr. Menke is not as in love with Florida as his predecessor was. He's cut two Florida cities (RSW, JAX) altogether and reduced service to the others.

Generally, he believes that less is more - that fewer flights with better yield is preferable to more flights with less yield.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineDfanucci From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 215 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (5 years 8 months 3 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 4551 times:

Quoting StarAlliance38 (Reply 1):
Also Mr. Menke is not as in love with Florida as his predecessor was. He's cut two Florida cities (RSW, JAX) altogether and reduced service to the others.

Generally, he believes that less is more - that fewer flights with better yield is preferable to more flights with less yield.

Thanks Mariner,

Were the yields really that low to MCO? I could have sworn they were running two flights recently. Hence why I was shocked. I would think that even though Menke is not a great fan of Florida, he might consider putting up a little bit of a fight in regards to United and Southwest. The new Airfare program would seem to be something a vacation planning family would look very favorable at.
-D

[Edited 2008-12-29 13:24:32]

User currently offlinePetteri From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 279 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (5 years 8 months 3 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 4511 times:

Well FLL usually sees an additional flight during the "high season", this year the schedule was kept at just one flight a day. UA shut down their FLL operations, and WN moved in a non-stop from DEN. Even so there was a daily drop for about 20 seats a day (UA's airbus vs. WN 737). The yields are indeed too low to support multiple ops. The shame for F9 is that the schedule doesn't allow for a round trip to/from the west coast from FLL. There are only a handful of cities outside of DEN that allow for the early morning connection. If that could somehow be remedied, perhaps an additional flight would work, at least in a stronger economic environment. A RON would do the trick as well, but Menke has done away with those.


The above comments are my personal comments and in no way should be viewed as the views,policy or statements of JetBlue
User currently offlineIncitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4014 posts, RR: 13
Reply 5, posted (5 years 8 months 3 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 4335 times:



Quoting Mariner (Reply 2):
Like LAS, MCO has seen declining numbers and several airlines have reduced service.

United is also reducing DEN-MCO from 5 x to 4 x daily and Southwest flies the route nonstop 3 x daily on weekdays. The state of the economy or of travel to Disney is not the entire explanation as to why F9 has a single frequency.



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User currently offlinePBIflyguy From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 248 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (5 years 8 months 3 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 4305 times:



Quoting Mariner (Reply 2):
Also Mr. Menke is not as in love with Florida as his predecessor was. He's cut two Florida cities (RSW, JAX) altogether and reduced service to the others.

From what I was told, JAX was where the new seats were installed. I think DEN-JAX was more of a way to pick up some revenue if the aircraft was on its way there for refurb. Now that the project is wrapped up, dropping JAX is no surprise. Plus it was a red-eye for the outbound to JAX.

RSW is a nice "little" station but not surprised it got cut. They still fly TPA, the few who used RSW will wander up to TPA.

MCO down to one is a bit of a shock. The more they give in to WN the harder it will be to get that traffic back.

PBI got cut REAL fast. Knew that one wouldn't do well with the DEN-PBI as a redeye.

Lets's hope they don't mess with FLL again like they did with that crazy loop up through Memphis.


User currently offlinePetteri From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 279 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (5 years 8 months 3 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 4286 times:



Quoting PBIflyguy (Reply 6):
Lets's hope they don't mess with FLL again like they did with that crazy loop up through Memphis.

The people who were used to riding NW FLL-MEM sure were happy about that route though!

Personally I don't have fond memories of it as it involved a split shift for me and then it's demise meant the loss of jobs for some people I knew.



The above comments are my personal comments and in no way should be viewed as the views,policy or statements of JetBlue
User currently offlineKing From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (5 years 8 months 3 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 4257 times:



Quoting StarAlliance38 (Reply 1):
Would this affect FL and F9's partnership?

I don't see how. It's not a codeshare agreement so there is no feed in either direction to the other carrier. It is simply a frequent flyer marketing agreement. Now, if the long rumored codeshare goes through then F9 will be able to fly their metal from DEN to MCO and possibly feed a FL flight out of MCO. Even then, F9 to FL connections in ATL seem like that will be a priority over the limited amount of FL connections in MCO.


User currently offlineKing From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (5 years 8 months 3 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 4249 times:



Quoting PBIflyguy (Reply 6):
From what I was told, JAX was where the new seats were installed. I think DEN-JAX was more of a way to pick up some revenue if the aircraft was on its way there for refurb. Now that the project is wrapped up, dropping JAX is no surprise. Plus it was a red-eye for the outbound to JAX.

I don't know if that was the initial reason for adding JAX as a station. I was under the impression that JAX opened first and the announcement of aircraft seat conversions taking place in JAX came later. The project is not totally wrapped up, though. The A318's have all been converted, but some of the remaining A319's start going back down to JAX in January.


User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25240 posts, RR: 85
Reply 10, posted (5 years 8 months 3 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 4197 times:
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Quoting Dfanucci (Reply 3):
Hence why I was shocked. I would think that even though Menke is not a great fan of Florida, he might consider putting up a little bit of a fight in regards to United and Southwest.

I'm not sure that he perceives it that way. but whatever he's doing, it seems to be working. I believe Frontier recorded a net profit in November.

Quoting King (Reply 9):
I don't know if that was the initial reason for adding JAX as a station. I was under the impression that JAX opened first and the announcement of aircraft seat conversions taking place in JAX came later.

That's correct. The seat conversion plan came later.

Initially, JAX, like BDL, had remarkable loads, well over 90%. But, for whatever reason, both fell off a cliff out of season.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineF9Animal From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 5050 posts, RR: 28
Reply 11, posted (5 years 8 months 3 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 4141 times:



Quoting Dfanucci (Reply 3):
Were the yields really that low to MCO?

Yes, MCO is kind of like Vegas. The price to fly to MCO is cheap, hence lower yields into that market.

I wonder how F9 would do into a market like BUF?

Quoting Mariner (Reply 10):
I'm not sure that he perceives it that way. but whatever he's doing, it seems to be working. I believe Frontier recorded a net profit in November.

Very very good to hear! I am hearing positives around the F9 employees.



I Am A Different Animal!!
User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25240 posts, RR: 85
Reply 12, posted (5 years 8 months 3 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 4131 times:
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Quoting Mariner (Reply 10):
I believe Frontier recorded a net profit in November.

Yep - the press release is out now:

http://news.prnewswire.com/DisplayRe...story/12-29-2008/0004947535&EDATE=

PR Newswire: "Frontier Airlines Shows Net Profit for November 2008"

T'ain't a big profit, but it is net, and any profit is better than a loss.

 Smile

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineEnilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7173 posts, RR: 13
Reply 13, posted (5 years 8 months 3 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 4050 times:



Quoting F9Animal (Reply 11):
I wonder how F9 would do into a market like BUF?

If they can't make BDL work then there isn't much hope for BUF. It's considerably smaller from DEN where F9 sells most of its tickets.

Quoting PBIflyguy (Reply 6):
MCO down to one is a bit of a shock.

It's a shock because they said they were shrinking to the East because fuel was so high (i.e. fuel makes up more of the cost of a long-haul), so now that the bottom has fallen out of fuel prices they should be doing the reverse.

Like a lot of the airlines, I think they are looking at last year's seasonal performance when oil was $145/barrel and making bad decisions for this year. They should take last year's results, adjust for the change in fuel prices, and then adjust revenue based upon the current downward booking trend. That's a lot of work, though. It's easier just to be lazy and say the second flight sucked last year.


User currently offlineKing From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (5 years 8 months 3 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 4022 times:



Quoting Enilria (Reply 13):
Like a lot of the airlines, I think they are looking at last year's seasonal performance when oil was $145/barrel and making bad decisions for this year. They should take last year's results, adjust for the change in fuel prices, and then adjust revenue based upon the current downward booking trend. That's a lot of work, though. It's easier just to be lazy and say the second flight sucked last year.

Bad decisions? Lazy? Are we talking about the same airline? You don't think that there might be an aircraft availability issue? I'll take the profit in November as a sign of Frontier knows what it's doing now. No offense Enrilia but I'm glad you're not running F9.


User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25240 posts, RR: 85
Reply 15, posted (5 years 8 months 3 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 4002 times:
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Quoting F9Animal (Reply 11):
I wonder how F9 would do into a market like BUF?

There are two routes cut that I would like to see come back one day - BDL and SDF - and if I had my druthers both would have an add-on route to somewhere else.

I think this thread reflects an issue which i think is important. From soon after he took over, SM has had to cope with crises - the rise in the price of oil and now the economic downturn.

He hasn't been able to show us the airline he wants Frontier to be - i imagine that will come some time next year.

It is one of the things that intrigues me - the "dream route map" locked somewhere inside his head - and it is possible that "his" airline doesn't encompass multiple flights to MCO or FLL. I hope that he has other things up his sleeve.

A.net is full of people saying "he should do this" or "I'd do that", it is part of a.net. The question is - what does he want to do? What does he want the airline to be?

He's been full of surprises and he hasn't let me down so far, so I'm looking forward to next year.  

mariner

[Edited 2008-12-29 17:29:20]


aeternum nauta
User currently offlineDfanucci From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 215 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (5 years 8 months 3 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 3855 times:

Quoting Mariner (Reply 10):
I'm not sure that he perceives it that way. but whatever he's doing, it seems to be working. I believe Frontier recorded a net profit in November.

Good for them! That little airline deserves it.

Petteri has a really good point regarding Florida and the west coast folks not getting a connection to Florida. My company just had to purchase United tickets (they fly Frontier whenever possible) as there was no connection through Denver available.

I also noticed that they are indeed going back to 2 flights out of GEG come the summer with the evening flight RON...

I'm not an airline exec, nor do I play one on T.V. but, I'm gonna have stay with my shocked reaction regarding the Florida flights and the schedule feeding Florida in the morning. I think cutting off the entire west coast of the united states wanting same day service on the same airline to Florida is risky.

+1 for the competition.

-D

[Edited 2008-12-29 18:47:06]

User currently offlineNASCARAirforce From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3178 posts, RR: 4
Reply 17, posted (5 years 8 months 3 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 3842 times:

Frontier has been operating just one a day to MCO for the past few months. However they just recently switched times. They were arriving around 4pm and departing around 5pm at MCO, but right before Christmas it switched to arriving at 10pm and overnighting and departing at 8am next day. Frontier went to one a day back in Sept. Prior to that they did have two a day and I do remember last year they had two from DEN and one from MEM.

User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25240 posts, RR: 85
Reply 18, posted (5 years 8 months 3 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 3797 times:
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Quoting Dfanucci (Reply 16):
I think cutting off the entire west coast of the united states wanting same day service on the same airline to Florida is risky.

It's not exactly the entire west coast - you can get through flights to MCO and TPA from LAX and SFO, for example, and SAN.

The other point is that they tried the higher number of frequencies and have the figures to show what those flights did.

This may be one of the difficulties SM faces - the belief that because they did it before it was working. Or even that - because it was MCO (say) - it must have worked.

But it wasn't working. Even prior to the arrival of Southwest at DEN, Frontier had not recorded an annual profit for a couple of years.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineTheGreatChecko From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 1128 posts, RR: 2
Reply 19, posted (5 years 8 months 3 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 3783 times:

Just because its available through United (or Southwest for that matter), doesn't mean its a money maker. If it wasn't for the amount of cash UA has available to burn, they would be in a lot more trouble.

The DEN hub has not been a money maker for UA for many years and one can surmise that WN isn't making much money there either.



"A pilot's plane she is. She will love you if you deserve it, and try to kill you if you don't...She is the Mighty Q400"
User currently offlinePetteri From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 279 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (5 years 8 months 3 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 3773 times:

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 11):
I wonder how F9 would do into a market like BUF?

If someone could dig up numbers for YYZ-DEN you might get a more clear picture of how BUF-DEN might be. A large portion of BUF traffic drives down from north of the border.

I do know that years ago the NFTA was actively courting F9.

[Edited 2008-12-29 19:31:00]


The above comments are my personal comments and in no way should be viewed as the views,policy or statements of JetBlue
User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25240 posts, RR: 85
Reply 21, posted (5 years 8 months 3 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 3701 times:
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Quoting Dfanucci (Reply 16):
My company just had to purchase United tickets (they fly Frontier whenever possible) as there was no connection through Denver available.

I am a bit confused there, too.

Your profile says GEG, so assuming your friends were booking from there, the 11 am flight out of GEG arrives in DEN at 2.11 pm, in good time to connect to the 4.46 pm DEN-MCO.

The lay-over would be more than two hours, but if Frontier had a morning DEN-MCO, your friends could not have made that connection.

Perhaps one leg of the flights was full when your friends wanted to go?

 confused 

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineEnilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7173 posts, RR: 13
Reply 22, posted (5 years 8 months 3 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 3653 times:



Quoting Enilria (Reply 13):
Like a lot of the airlines



Quoting King (Reply 14):
Bad decisions? Lazy? Are we talking about the same airline?

I didn't attribute that comment to only F9.

Haven't we all seen the endless comments from all the airlines about how long-hauls don't work with high fuel prices? A lot of the airlines are cutting long-hauls now that fuel is cheap and it makes no sense. This is stuff that they flew when oil was 4x what it is now. It isn't possible that a long-haul will be worse this Spring than it was last Summer because the savings in fuel are so massive.

Frontier's November results showed that. They paid $18 million less for fuel in Nov vs. Oct. That's huge for an airline with less than $100 million in revenue per month. You couple that with the fact that long-haul profitability is more tightly tied to fuel than any other type of flying and all of the airlines' continue cutting of long-haul makes no sense. It's just dollars and sense/cents. Either they should have cut last Summer/Fall or they shouldn't be cutting it now.

The airlines should be, and eventually will, be adding it back. Oddly, the only airline I've seen do that is Virgin America, although they may have just bumbled into it.


User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25240 posts, RR: 85
Reply 23, posted (5 years 8 months 3 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 3609 times:
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Quoting Enilria (Reply 22):
Either they should have cut last Summer/Fall or they shouldn't be cutting it now.

If you mean Frontier, they did cut last summer. I'm not aware that they are cutting long haul now.

If you mean other airlines and not Frontier, then that isn't clear to me and, whatever you intended, I took the "lazy" comment to mean Frontier.

 confused 

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineEnilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7173 posts, RR: 13
Reply 24, posted (5 years 8 months 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 3221 times:



Quoting Mariner (Reply 23):
If you mean other airlines and not Frontier, then that isn't clear to me and, whatever you intended, I took the "lazy" comment to mean Frontier.

In Frontier's case I guarantee that the decision to fly one RT to MCO (plus some weekend stuff), one RT to TPA, and one RT to FLL in March is not optimal, but you will probably disagree. March is super-peak and fuel is now so cheap that they could have made a lot of money in March with more Florida at the expense of something shorter.

JetBlue is the same way, they really haven't added back any of the transcons they hacked away...except some BOS in response to VX. WN hasn't gone back into any of their transcons either. I did see UA just added back the 2nd BWI-LAX last week so that is probably one other example of the slow creep toward long-haul normalcy.

I think the airlines (plural) are expecting fuel to shoot back up or are simply looking at last year's results to make decisions about this year. I think it's lazy to not adjust the route network to a 75% cut in fuel prices. If fuel did shoot back up, they could simply cancel the flying and put the existing bookings on connections if need be.

This topic should probably be its own non-denominational thread.


25 Dfanucci : Thanks again Mariner, I always enjoy seeing things from your point of view. Yes, we fly out of GEG, but the MCO flight does not take place until May.
26 Dfanucci : I'm gonna have to agree with this. I would like to see F9's March Yield numbers from years past. Florida is the only state right now that seems to no
27 MSYtristar : Through March, F9 only has one to MCO... SKDENMCO/18JAN,F9 1 F9 674 YBH DENMCO 1646 2209 32S 0 07JAN04MAR VLUEDMQTGWRZS However the second flight come
28 Enilria : That must be what I thought was a weekend flight. So, they operate it for 14 days. That's better. I'm sure it would have been great from President's
29 Mariner : That is correct. However, I see that at least in Spring Break (March/April) Frontier will be running 2 x daily DEN-MCO. (#672/#674). So it is the con
30 MSYtristar : No, the 2nd flight operates from March 20th to April 18th....more than 14 days.
31 Dfanucci : Yup, sending one flight out at 7:25am closes the door on alot Florida connections from the west. The second flight, opened that door. Maybe Menke and
32 Mariner : The quote say MSYTristar, but it was my quote, so I'll respond. Is SM playing his cards close to his chest? Undoubtedly. And that is the problem for
33 Post contains images Dfanucci : Indeed he did, indeed he did. My apologies on the quote mistake. I will say that as not only a paying customer, and a Frontier Credit card holder, I
34 DLPMMM : You are correct there. Next step will be to show a profit without 1 time gains from asset sales ($2.4MM profit including $4.0MM 1 time gain from the
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