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598 Persons Killed In Plane-crashes During 2008  
User currently offlineRobbie86 From Sweden, joined May 2006, 541 posts, RR: 0
Posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 7282 times:

Last year 598 persons where killed due to plane-crashes. This is a decrease with 153 persons compared to 2007.

With a total of 2.5 billion flying last year the chance of decease in a plane-crash is barely 1 against 4.2 million.

This statistic is made by Jacdec (Jet Airliner Crash Data Evaluation Centre).

Source is only in Swedish: http://www.dn.se/DNet/jsp/polopoly.jsp?d=3561&a=871706

Hopefully 2009 will be the first year with zero lethal plane-crashes.


Next flights: ARN-ORD-MCO, MIA-ORD-ARN
32 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineMgmacius From Poland, joined Jun 2007, 68 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 7180 times:

No way for that, that's for sure. But I think we can assume, that years of massive airline crashes are gone now - planes are getting safer and safer day by day, there are new procedures to avoid any dangerous situations and so on. My bet is < 400 in 2009  Wink


734, 735, 738, 744, 763, 772, 773, A319, A320, A380, Dash8, E170, Saab340A
User currently offlineNA From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10807 posts, RR: 9
Reply 2, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 7147 times:



Quoting Mgmacius (Reply 1):
No way for that, that's for sure. But I think we can assume, that years of massive airline crashes are gone now - planes are getting safer and safer day by day, there are new procedures to avoid any dangerous situations and so on. My bet is < 400 in 2009  

I wouldnt bet, but the trend is promising. Wasnt 2008 the best year so far since the beginning of widespread air transport?
ATC, procedures and controls have been improved massively, and all aircraft types developed since the early 80s are significantly safer than what was developed before. Look at the 757/767 vs. 707/DC8, look at 747-400 vs 747-1/200, look at 737-300 vs. 737-200. Huge difference.


User currently offlineElite From Hong Kong, joined Jun 2006, 2875 posts, RR: 10
Reply 3, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 7143 times:

These impressive numbers should now be even more convincing when we try to make people who are scared of flying not scared. 598 in a year... shows how advanced aviation is!

User currently onlineB747forever From Sweden, joined May 2007, 17126 posts, RR: 10
Reply 4, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 7125 times:

Well I think it is still a lot of souls lost. Almost 600....


I wonder if we ever will reach a year without any fatalities.



Work Hard, Fly Right
User currently offlineNA From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10807 posts, RR: 9
Reply 5, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 7106 times:



Quoting B747forever (Reply 4):
I wonder if we ever will reach a year without any fatalities.

Never. I think less than 600 dead in a year worldwide is an outstanding record.
A midsized country has 10 times as many victims in ground traffic each year.


User currently onlineB747forever From Sweden, joined May 2007, 17126 posts, RR: 10
Reply 6, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 7100 times:



Quoting NA (Reply 5):
Quoting B747forever (Reply 4):
I wonder if we ever will reach a year without any fatalities.

Never

Unfortunately I think you are right.



Work Hard, Fly Right
User currently offlineElite From Hong Kong, joined Jun 2006, 2875 posts, RR: 10
Reply 7, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 7086 times:



Quoting NA (Reply 5):
Never. I think less than 600 dead in a year worldwide is an outstanding record.

600 out of 2.5 billion... outstanding safety record indeed.


User currently offlineMgmacius From Poland, joined Jun 2007, 68 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 7001 times:



Quoting NA (Reply 2):
ATC, procedures and controls have been improved massively, and all aircraft types developed since the early 80s are significantly safer than what was developed before. Look at the 757/767 vs. 707/DC8, look at 747-400 vs 747-1/200, look at 737-300 vs. 737-200. Huge difference.

That's exactly my point - look at LHR BA crash - with 707 or older planes it would be terrible, lots of fatalities and almost no survivors. But it ended with one broken leg and some light injuries. Incredibly lucky!



734, 735, 738, 744, 763, 772, 773, A319, A320, A380, Dash8, E170, Saab340A
User currently offlineKappel From Suriname, joined Jul 2005, 3533 posts, RR: 17
Reply 9, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 6979 times:



Quoting NA (Reply 2):
I wouldnt bet, but the trend is promising. Wasnt 2008 the best year so far since the beginning of widespread air transport?

No, I believe that was 2005 or 2006 with a little over 400 fatalities.

Quoting Mgmacius (Reply 1):
But I think we can assume, that years of massive airline crashes are gone now -

Well, there were a few close calls in recent years, such as the AF a343 in Canada and the BA 772 at LHR. But in general, the trend is unmistakable.  thumbsup 



L1011,733,734,73G,738,743,744,752,763,772,77W,DC855,DC863,DC930,DC950,MD11,MD88,306,319,320,321,343,346,ARJ85,CR7,E195
User currently offlineHatbutton From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 1500 posts, RR: 14
Reply 10, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 6914 times:



Quoting Elite (Reply 7):
600 out of 2.5 billion... outstanding safety record indeed.

Well and considering no matter how good technology gets, there will always be extreme weather and strange occurrences to deal with. And we are all still human so it is bound to happen once in a while when you get that "perfect storm" of things going wrong like usually happens in an accident.

So the fact that out of 2.5 billion, only a minisucle fraction of that accounts for probably some of these less than normal conditions...that is amazing.


User currently offlineSQ_EK_freak From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2000, 1642 posts, RR: 20
Reply 11, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 6902 times:

For the sake of comparison, what are the stats like in recent years, from say 2002 onwards till 2008?


Keep Discovering
User currently offlineScipio From Belgium, joined Oct 2007, 906 posts, RR: 10
Reply 12, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 6864 times:



Quoting B747forever (Reply 4):
I wonder if we ever will reach a year without any fatalities.

Let's hope that we will.

What is particularly promising is that, to my knowledge, no commercial passenger has ever died due to a crash of one of the latest generation of widebodies (B777, A330, and A340). There have been close calls, but overall these planes have a remarkable safety record.

The next generation (A380, B787, and A350) should be even safer, so I think there is reasonable ground for optimism.


User currently offlineRichierich From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 4289 posts, RR: 6
Reply 13, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 6811 times:



Quoting NA (Reply 5):
Never. I think less than 600 dead in a year worldwide is an outstanding record.
A midsized country has 10 times as many victims in ground traffic each year

I think "only" 600 fatalities is an impressive number, especially considering the increased flying in developing countries and in the face of on-going terrorism. However I don't want anybody patting themselves on their backs - ZERO fatalities should be the goal no matter how unattainable it is.

Quoting Mgmacius (Reply 1):
No way for that, that's for sure. But I think we can assume, that years of massive airline crashes are gone now -

Unfortunately I don't know how on earth you can say that. 1985 was the worst year for aviation in terms of lives lost and that wasn't too long ago. Sure a lot of changes have been made since then and - keep fingers crossed - safety has been improving all the time. But to say that we will not see "massive" airliner crashes again is probably not accurate. We just don't know.

Quoting Mgmacius (Reply 8):
That's exactly my point - look at LHR BA crash - with 707 or older planes it would be terrible, lots of fatalities and almost no survivors. But it ended with one broken leg and some light injuries. Incredibly lucky!

Again, we don't know this at all. You are assuming that because it was a 777 it was stronger and therefore a surviveable crash as compared to a 707, DC-8, etc. I'm quite OK with saying the 777 is a perfectly safe airplane and the improvements in aircraft reliability, maintenance, and pilot training have all contributed to a much safer industry. As you said yourself, there were only minor injuries in the BA crash and that was indeed "incredibly lucky".



None shall pass!!!!
User currently offlineRobbie86 From Sweden, joined May 2006, 541 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 6771 times:



Quoting SQ_EK_freak (Reply 11):
For the sake of comparison, what are the stats like in recent years, from say 2002 onwards till 2008?

2002: 948
2003: 543
2004: 525
2005: 1085
2006: 705
2007: 781

These numbers does include fatalities of those who where on the ground where the plane crashed.



Next flights: ARN-ORD-MCO, MIA-ORD-ARN
User currently offlineKELPkid From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 6428 posts, RR: 3
Reply 15, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 6717 times:



Quoting Robbie86 (Thread starter):
Last year 598 persons where killed due to plane-crashes. This is a decrease with 153 persons compared to 2007.

Is that only including public, scheduled airline transport accidents, or is general aviation also lumped into that statistic? Enquiring minds want to know...  Wink



Celebrating the birth of KELPkidJR on August 5, 2009 :-)
User currently offlineRobbie86 From Sweden, joined May 2006, 541 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 6691 times:



Quoting KELPkid (Reply 15):
Is that only including public, scheduled airline transport accidents, or is general aviation also lumped into that statistic? Enquiring minds want to know...

I belive that all jetliner's included in this statistics.



Next flights: ARN-ORD-MCO, MIA-ORD-ARN
User currently offlineBennett123 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2004, 7762 posts, RR: 3
Reply 17, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 6649 times:

However the figures are skewed.

Certain Airlines/Countries are far more risky than others. However, in those countries Transport in general is more risky than average.


User currently offlineMgmacius From Poland, joined Jun 2007, 68 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 6598 times:



Quoting Richierich (Reply 13):
Unfortunately I don't know how on earth you can say that. 1985 was the worst year for aviation in terms of lives lost and that wasn't too long ago. Sure a lot of changes have been made since then and - keep fingers crossed - safety has been improving all the time. But to say that we will not see "massive" airliner crashes again is probably not accurate. We just don't know.

Since 1985 23 years passed, we are at least two generations of airliners ahead now with another gen on the horrizon. When you look at each airline crash during last 20 years you can clearly see that airliners ARE getting safer and safer - there are much less fatalities on modern aircraft then it was before. It's pretty obvious why - 747-100 was almost handmade, with all of the design done on paper by hand. Now we have computer aided design, new materials, new technologies. Of course there still is slight possibility of some critical mistake getting unnoticed until is too late (like Swissair 111), but because of previous crash investigations and findings this is getting less and less probable. When you look at BA crash or this terrible Emirates A340 "crashtest" you can clearly see how much things improved. That's why I'm getting so optimistic - airliners are really refined products and I wish that some day cars could be even half as safe, as planes are.

Quoting Richierich (Reply 13):
Again, we don't know this at all. You are assuming that because it was a 777 it was stronger and therefore a surviveable crash as compared to a 707, DC-8, etc.

Exactly, it's incredible how this structure was able to absorb energy of impact without breaking apart - at first plane looked quite well, not like a complete write-off.



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User currently offlineMCIGuy From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 1936 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 6594 times:

This record could be smashed with only one major A380 or 748i incident.


Airliners.net Moderator Team
User currently offlineBlatantEcho From United States of America, joined Sep 2000, 1920 posts, RR: 1
Reply 20, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 6576 times:



Quoting Richierich (Reply 13):
in the face of on-going terrorism.

What?.... where?


Why do people even bring non-sequitors like this up, it's embarrassing.



They're not handing trophies out today
User currently offlineMrChips From Canada, joined Mar 2005, 937 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 6518 times:



Quoting KELPkid (Reply 15):

Is that only including public, scheduled airline transport accidents, or is general aviation also lumped into that statistic? Enquiring minds want to know

Numbers like that don't include general aviation. In a typical year, about 300 people are killed in GA accidents in the United States alone.

Quoting Richierich (Reply 13):
However I don't want anybody patting themselves on their backs - ZERO fatalities should be the goal no matter how unattainable it is

As you wish. But bear in mind, the only real way to attain zero fatalities is to park all our aircraft. No matter what nor how much equipment we field, or whatever amount of training and procedures we put in place for our aircrews/maintenance engineers, there will always be the possibility of it all going wrong. Even if the chance is one in a hundred million, it can and will happen.

In fact, increasing the number of safety-related procedures can have a perverse effect on flight safety, not to mention the adverse effect on the cost of air travel. If you hamstring your aircrews with piles of procedures, it becomes more likely that they will decide amongst themselves to start cutting corners for the sake of expediency - it's human nature to do things like that. As with anything else in life, you need to strike a balance between enough procedure and guidance to establish a robust level of safety, but not so much that everything gets thrown out the window at the first sign of trouble.



Time...to un-pimp...ze auto!
User currently offlineNA From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10807 posts, RR: 9
Reply 22, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 6411 times:



Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 19):
This record could be smashed with only one major A380 or 748i incident.

More likely by:
- one of those sardine-can shorthaul 773s.
- or some more old 737s
- or, most likely, by some airlines suffering from the crisis and trying to save money in the wrong place


User currently offlineRFields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 32
Reply 23, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 6319 times:



Quoting Robbie86 (Thread starter):
Hopefully 2009 will be the first year with zero lethal plane-crashes.

Alread 14 dead in the US in 5 fatal crashes in 2009 in the US, including 8 in a scheduled helicopter flight.


User currently offlineVC10DC10 From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 1037 posts, RR: 3
Reply 24, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 6304 times:



Quoting Mgmacius (Reply 18):
747-100 was almost handmade, with all of the design done on paper by hand. Now we have computer aided design

Geez, if my computer is any indication, everybody was a lot safer on the 741...  duck 

Seriously, I view this number with mixed emotions: glad it's not higher and aware of what an accomplishment it is, but nonetheless with regret for the lives lost (obviously). Issues continue to worry me, however. So much of aviation safety has little or nothing to do with equipment or pilots: everyone depends on ATC. Although I'm no expert, the worldwide state of ATC is very worrisome to me.


25 Richierich : Gee, I don't know, another 9/11 type event where multiple airliners are brought down in horrible event is not out of the question. I'm not saying it
26 Mgmacius : LOL! Thankfully we can't compare it - computers now are mostly made by insanely cheap Chinese companies with no QA checks (too costly for them)...
27 Danfearn77 : Quite right, an amazing record. When you consider in the UK 4000 (approx) people die on the roads each year, just in the UK. Its an unbelievebale sta
28 Post contains links Alessandro : Well the 598 is only from civilian aircraft ceritified for 13 passenger and more, here´s a list with all known accidents with fatalities with US made
29 Alessandro : 370 fatal accidents according to NTSB last year, so I suspect that the less than 13 seat aircrafts kills more people than to +13 seat.
30 Viscount724 : Not necessarily. There were many fairly serious accidents in the early jet period with few or no fatalities and where the aircraft did not catch fire
31 EICVD : They old boeings in Africa would be just as bad.
32 Litz : Don't forget that Continental just put a 737-500 in a ravine at DEN with all pax/crew out of the airplane safely (and considerable fire threatening t
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