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DL Reports 4 Qtr Loss  
User currently offlineMCOAviationFan From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 247 posts, RR: 0
Posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 5831 times:

DL reported their 4qtr results today. They are as follows:

For the December quarter, Delta reported a net loss of $1.4 billion, including $900 million related to employee equity awards and a $91 million loss on fuel hedges. Delta would have reported a $167 million net profit for the quarter, excluding special charges, if fuel had been purchased at market prices. As of Dec. 31, Delta had $6.1 billion in total liquidity and cash collateral posted with hedge counterparties.

http://news.delta.com/article_display.cfm?article_id=11219

46 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineFFlyer From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 733 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 5723 times:

The hedge loss is much smaller than with most of the others, so it has paid to be conservative. I guess these figures include NW.

User currently offlineAA1818 From Trinidad and Tobago, joined Feb 2006, 3437 posts, RR: 4
Reply 2, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 5644 times:

DL cahs balance is also very healthy. That said, a 1.4bn loss is huge. I look forward to the day when US airlines are trying to report the biggest profit not the smallest loss!
When does CO report their results?
AA1818



“The moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease for ever to be able to do it.” J.M. Barrie (Peter Pan)
User currently offlineBurnsie28 From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 7564 posts, RR: 8
Reply 3, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 5637 times:



Quoting FFlyer (Reply 1):
I guess these figures include NW.

I don't think they do as the books are seperate and were seperate for half of the quarter.



"Some People Just Know How To Fly"- Best slogan ever, RIP NW 1926-2009
User currently offlinePanamair From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 4970 posts, RR: 25
Reply 4, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 5496 times:
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On a GAAP basis, the results are combined only after the merger (ie., for Q4, it has 3 months of DL + 2 months of NW results). Elsewhere in the presentation, some numbers are also presented on a "Combined" basis which means including NW's pre-merger October 2008 numbers in the Q4 numbers but more for informational purposes.

For Q4 2008 on a GAAP basis, excluding the special and one-time items, it looks like the operating loss/profit for Q4 2008 was pretty much break-even (similar to guidance which called for a (0 - 2%) operating margin. Operating loss was $19 million (Revenues of $6.713 billion and Expenses of $6.732 billion).

For all of 2008, it looks like they managed to eke out a slight Operating Profit of around $110 million if special one-time items are excluded.


User currently offlineBurnsie28 From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 7564 posts, RR: 8
Reply 5, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 5458 times:



Quoting AA1818 (Reply 2):
DL cahs balance is also very healthy. That said, a 1.4bn loss is huge. I look forward to the day when US airlines are trying to report the biggest profit not the smallest loss!

I remember when they were doing that back in the 1990's at one point NW had the highest ever quarter profit for any airline.



"Some People Just Know How To Fly"- Best slogan ever, RIP NW 1926-2009
User currently offlineFlyDreamliner From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 2759 posts, RR: 15
Reply 6, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 5429 times:



Quoting Burnsie28 (Reply 5):

Quoting AA1818 (Reply 2):
DL cahs balance is also very healthy. That said, a 1.4bn loss is huge. I look forward to the day when US airlines are trying to report the biggest profit not the smallest loss!

I remember when they were doing that back in the 1990's at one point NW had the highest ever quarter profit for any airline.

Very true. Last year UA turned over a 2 billion profit, given it was largely a special condition.

The new DL might be enormous, but they are going to need to have a strong plan, stick to it, and hope it works to turn their finances and fortunes around. It's a bad time for US airlines, but the merger will be expensive for DL. I wish them the best in realizing all the possible benefits!



"Let the world change you, and you can change the world"
User currently offlineMasseyBrown From United States of America, joined Dec 2002, 5598 posts, RR: 7
Reply 7, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 5358 times:

While we await the 10-K, the thing to note is that DL's loss exceeded analysts' estimates by about 33% and the stock is down 20% at the start of the conf. call.

Calling counterparty payments cash is fun. DL should get the Academy Award for best original financial reporting.



I love long German words like 'Freundschaftsbezeigungen'.
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11459 posts, RR: 58
Reply 8, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 5358 times:
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FORUM MODERATOR

Interesting to see DL fuel hedge position for 2009:

Q1 - 55% @ $90 and 25% @ $45 = 80%
Q2 - 39% @ $90 and 46% @ $55 = 85%
Q3 - 21% @ $82 and 34% @ $59 = 55%
Q4 - 15% @ $86 and 17% @ $61 = 32%



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineDurangoMac From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 743 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 5226 times:



Quoting Burnsie28 (Reply 3):
I don't think they do as the books are seperate and were seperate for half of the quarter.

SEC regs require they report both companies because NW is now part of DL. Their books might be separate and operate as two separate companies, just as OH is DL for the most part.


User currently offlineLAXDESI From United States of America, joined May 2005, 5086 posts, RR: 47
Reply 10, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 5035 times:



Quoting MCOAviationFan (Thread starter):
As of Dec. 31, Delta had $6.1 billion in total liquidity and cash collateral posted with hedge counterparties.

Notes to the financial statements indicate that Delta had $4.2 billion in cash as of Dec. 31.


User currently offlineYellowtail From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 6345 posts, RR: 2
Reply 11, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 5002 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 8):
Q1 - 55% @ $90 and 25% @ $45 = 80%
Q2 - 39% @ $90 and 46% @ $55 = 85%
Q3 - 21% @ $82 and 34% @ $59 = 55%
Q4 - 15% @ $86 and 17% @ $61 = 32%

Ouch ..though I am sure it is not much different for other airlines...



When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
User currently offlineTVNWZ From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 2408 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 4965 times:

DAL quickly dropped 18% and has been steady there all morning. Apparently, Wall Street not too impressed.

User currently offlinePanamair From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 4970 posts, RR: 25
Reply 13, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 4916 times:
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Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 10):
Notes to the financial statements indicate that Delta had $4.2 billion in cash as of Dec. 31.

Total unrestricted cash, ST investments, etc. = $4.5 billion
Untapped line of credit = $0.5 billion ($500 million)
Total liquidity not including fuel hedge cash collateral = $5.0 billion
Fuel hedge cash collateral = $1.1 billion

Other notes from the Earnings call:

- Cash projection for year-end 2009 is $7.0 billion which does not include any fuel hedge cash collateral as the $1.1 billion would be 'unwound' throughout the year...
- Expect positive cash flow in Q1 2009
- Expect to be operatiing cash flow positive in 2009 around $3 billion
- Another $1 billion in cash to come from AMEX
- Standalone DL Mainline CASM (excluding specials and fuel) in Q4 2008 actually decreased another 1% to 6.74 cents, which is even lower than WN at 6.82 cents on a raw basis.
- Mainline non-fuel CASM increased because of the NW side

Traffic / Demand:

- Domestic load factors running 2-4% below year-over-year for Feb/March
- International running 7-9% behind
- Some increase in coach yields as more business travel moves back to Coach; also uncertainty on the part of consumers means more are buying tickets closer in to their travel dates (which means generally higher fares than advance purchase fares)
- Weak spots are: CVG, DTW, London, TLV, BOM, and the Shuttle
- Brighter spots are: ATL, SLC, MSP, Africa, Latin America, Pacific (Beach Markets more)
- Actions taken to address weak spots: retimed CVG hub, new CVG fare structure, removed SEA-LHR, DTW-LGW, and one ATL-LGW; retiming daylight JFK-LHR to an evening departure starting in April; full-flat-beds in Business on all LHR flights; shifting of LGA-DCA shuttles to E175s from the MD88s; BOM due to terrorist incident and overcapacity to/from India (reduction to 5x weekly in off-season for ATL-BOM and shift to 763ER for AMS-BOM)

- Operating Loss expected for Q1 (negative margin of 5 to 7%) - due to: weak demand, higher pension expenses, fuel hedges, etc.
- Still expect a +6 to +8% operating margin for 2009.


User currently offlineLAXDESI From United States of America, joined May 2005, 5086 posts, RR: 47
Reply 14, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 4856 times:

Delta's forecast for 2009 is as follows:
Capacity down 6-8%, revenue down 4%, and costs(excuding fuel, profit sharing) up 5-7%.

Fuel cost outlook:
Delta paid about $3/gallon for 4Q 2008, and expects a cost of about $2.34/gallon on hedged fuel(84% hedged for Q1 2009) to $2/gallon for Q4 2009(32% hedged for Q4 2009).

Delta expects an average fuel price of $2.15/gallon for the entire year of 2009, based on its current hedges and expectation of fuel prices based on the current forward curve for fuel.

Delta's loss of around $500 million(excluding $8.5 billion loss on goodwill write-down and merger costs) for 2008 was around 2% of revenue.

Delta expects an operating margin of 6-8% for year 2009, which based on my back of the envelope calculations should translate to an expected net profit before taxes of around $600 million-$1 billion. This includes the expected benefit of $500 million from the merger.

Time to buy Delta stock?


User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 4814 times:

thanks for the conference call notes, Panamair.

the results are quite frankly underwhelming - but not unexpected since DL has said theywill have bad hedges. They did do better on bad hedges than they could have given 2 airlines worth of hedges are really involved in these numbers and DL didn't break out whether DL OR NW did a better job on hedging.

DL also threw in a host of other cost items such as restructuring and merger related costs as well as auction rate security write downs (which CO is also taking). Basic revenue production numbers appear to be middle of the pack. The int'l LF declines clearly justify doing some serious pruming to capacity until summer.

DL does seem to know where the problems are and are addressing them but the biggest issue will be getting the fuel hedge losses taken care of. We can assume that the $1B+ in cash DL has laid out as collateral will be lost as at other airlines based on current fuel prices. DL has indicated it is hedging at current prices so the majority of fuel is hedged at either the old higher levels or the new lower levels. The question is how far out the new hedges go.

Like AA, DL still has a lot of employees covered under defined benefit plans - the difference being that most of DL's employees under those plans have frozen benefits while AA's are still active. Nonetheless, only those plans that are terminated are the ones that do not have to worry about the fall in the stock market.

Cash is adequate and still the best in the sector but watching a billion bucks go out the window still hurts. As with other carriers, the loyalty plans are generating the cash needed to keep the airlines liquid while the bad hedges are retired.


DL is clearly optimistic for the remainder of the year but the size of the legacy fuel hedges indicates there will be losses for at least another quarter until the hedges unwind and demand comes back - or capacity is resized to meet new levels of demand.

Despite the drop in DL shares, DL still has the highest market cap of US carrier as of right now. A number of other airlines are down +/- 10% as well


User currently offlineRwSEA From Netherlands, joined Jan 2005, 3131 posts, RR: 2
Reply 16, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 4757 times:



Quoting Panamair (Reply 13):
Weak spots are: CVG, DTW, London, TLV, BOM, and the Shuttle

I'm assuming TLV is down due to recent political events there? Is this why the second JFK-TLV is delayed?

Quoting Panamair (Reply 13):
Actions taken to address weak spots: retimed CVG hub, new CVG fare structure, removed SEA-LHR, DTW-LGW, and one ATL-LGW; retiming daylight JFK-LHR to an evening departure starting in April

What's the new CVG fare structure? Is this a revisit of simplifares, or a further price increase? It's sad that DL wanted to charge me $800 for SEA-CVG nonstop, but I could get to CVG for $450 r/t if I was willing to go through ATL and IND. I think it's time to bring prices at CVG down to a reasonable level. I have to say, these recent events cast further doubt that the CVG hub will continue into the forseeable future, especially given that the (much larger) nearby hub at DTW could use some strengthening as well.

I'm assuming the evening JFK-LHR will be using the former SEA-LHR slots. Will the slots for the daylight service then be returned?


User currently offlineMasseyBrown From United States of America, joined Dec 2002, 5598 posts, RR: 7
Reply 17, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 4714 times:



Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 14):
Time to buy Delta stock?

I wouldn't unless I had a very good finger on DL's pulse; and I don't. If you're really optimistic on the airlines, however, you could look at trading options on the AMEX Airline Index or one of the broader transportation indices.

If you're not familiar with the Index and want to watch it, enter ^XAL (the carat counts) in the Yahoo stock listing search box.



I love long German words like 'Freundschaftsbezeigungen'.
User currently offlinePanamair From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 4970 posts, RR: 25
Reply 18, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 4707 times:
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Quoting RwSEA (Reply 16):
I'm assuming TLV is down due to recent political events there?

Yes, the entire Middle East was affected but TLV was more so.

Quoting RwSEA (Reply 16):
What's the new CVG fare structure? Is this a revisit of simplifares, or a further price increase?

No specifics out yet, but I would have to guess an overall "net positive" for DL  Smile

Quoting RwSEA (Reply 16):
I'm assuming the evening JFK-LHR will be using the former SEA-LHR slots. Will the slots for the daylight service then be returned?

I don't see how the SEA-LHR slot will help since the arrival into LHR was in the late afternoon and the departure was again in the evening (where DL already has a flight currently that doesn't perform too well). I believe the new retimed JFK-LHR will be an early evening out of JFK with an arrival into LHR around 6-7am so I would assume it's a new slot from the AFKL portfolio (after all, AF has a big stake in the success of the LHR flights under the 50-50 JV).


User currently offlineLAXDESI From United States of America, joined May 2005, 5086 posts, RR: 47
Reply 19, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days ago) and read 4672 times:



Quoting Panamair (Reply 13):
Expect to be operatiing cash flow positive in 2009 around $3 billion



Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 14):
Delta expects an operating margin of 6-8% for year 2009, which based on my back of the envelope calculations should translate to an expected net profit before taxes of around $600 million-$1 billion. This includes the expected benefit of $500 million from the merger.

Adding $720 million in interest expense, and depreciation expense of about $1.25 billion to my estimate of $1 billion pre-tax net income(on the high end) takes me to nearly $3 billion in operating cash flow. The operating cash flow will be around $2.6 billion on the low end of operating margin guidance.

Delta will need to have an operating margin of at least 3% for 2009 so as to not lose any more cash.


User currently offlinePanamair From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 4970 posts, RR: 25
Reply 20, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days ago) and read 4640 times:
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Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 19):
Adding $720 million in interest expense, and depreciation expense of about $1.25 billion to my estimate of $1 billion pre-tax net income(on the high end) takes me to nearly $3 billion in operating cash flow. The operating cash flow will be around $2.6 billion on the low end of operating margin guidance.

Delta will need to have an operating margin of at least 3% for 2009 so as to not lose any more cash.

Some portion of the remaining $1 billion from the AMEX deal is also supposed to come through in 2009 (the rest in 2010)...


User currently offlineLAXDESI From United States of America, joined May 2005, 5086 posts, RR: 47
Reply 21, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days ago) and read 4613 times:



Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 17):
Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 14):
Time to buy Delta stock?

I wouldn't unless I had a very good finger on DL's pulse;

I just bought Delta stock under $8, and wrote June covered calls on it for $1.45 with a strike price of $10. The premium collected gives me a return of at least 45%(annualised) if Delta stays at $8, and more if it goes up.

I will break even if Delta drops to about $6.50, and lose money below that.


User currently offlineMasseyBrown From United States of America, joined Dec 2002, 5598 posts, RR: 7
Reply 22, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 4 days ago) and read 4524 times:

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 21):
I just bought Delta stock under $8, and wrote June covered calls on it for $1.45 with a strike price of $10.

I like buy/write and have been doing it a lot since last summer. The problem has been that the underlying stocks have kept dropping.   Of course, that has given me the opportunity to write more calls.  

FWIW, I just sold my long XAL call position.

Edit: My reluctance to buy DAL doesn't mean I'm negative on their prospects - I just don't like the volatility in individual airline shares lately and prefer the slightly smoother XAL trip.

[Edited 2009-01-27 11:44:58]


I love long German words like 'Freundschaftsbezeigungen'.
User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6729 posts, RR: 24
Reply 23, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 4281 times:



Quoting Panamair (Reply 18):
No specifics out yet, but I would have to guess an overall "net positive" for DL

I'm guessing the new fare structure involves the people of CVG bending over and.....you can figure the rest from there.

Quoting RwSEA (Reply 16):
I have to say, these recent events cast further doubt that the CVG hub will continue into the forseeable future, especially given that the (much larger) nearby hub at DTW could use some strengthening as well.

Indeed. You have to wonder how long DL will tolerate TWO weak performing hubs that completely overlap each other.


User currently offlineDELTA7478 From United States of America, joined Dec 2008, 173 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (5 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 4267 times:

Dl still has a active retirement plan. Does it??

25 NWAESC : Can you explain what this is/how it works. Feel free to *really* dumb it down. Their pension plan is frozen, as is NW's...
26 DeltaL1011man : Also CO is 2x daily in NYC plus IIRC LY has a flight or two. the slot would just go back to AF. I would think they may "trade" slots. Just a quick no
27 WorldTraveler : but unlike the plans at UA or US which were turned over to the PBGC, DL does still have responsibility for the plans. The difference being that AA an
28 LAXDESI : It certainly is a challenge to hold on to airline stocks and not capitulate when these large drops occur. Almost all of my airline holdings have cove
29 NWAESC : NW employees covered under IAM CBA's now have a pension under the IAM National Pension Fund, in addition to the frozen one from NW. There is no 401k
30 LAXDESI : Say you buy 1,000 shares of Delta(DAL) at $8/share for a total cost of $8,000. Write June 20, 2009(143 days to expiration) $10 covered calls(DALFB) a
31 DELTA7478 : That's strange, I know one of my co-workers from DL is retiuring these may, She has worked for DL for over 40 years and according to her she will her
32 OA412 : After all the talk earlier in the decade about DL being unhappy with SLC and possibly considering closing up shop here, it's nice to see that SLC is
33 Atlanta : Well I guess this is near the end of CVG. DTW surprises me, London does also, because of all the upgrades are being made to flights out of LHR. Well
34 Max Q : Lot's of optimism here and good luck to them, but Dal's debt has now gone from 9 to 16 BILLION dollars, that's a tough hole to dig out of for anyone.
35 WorldTraveler : thanks for clarifying. so what happens if the unions are decertified? yes, she has a pension. for the past several years it didn't grow in value beca
36 Okie73 : That's because they now include NWA debt in that number.
37 NWAESC : If they're decertified, DL's policies and procedures will prevail, so we'd go to a 401K plan going forward. Employees would still be entitled to what
38 Max Q : Well, exactly ! debt is debt it doesn't care where you got it from, regardless of the size of the merged company that amount is a wacking great millst
39 NWAESC : It helps a lot! Thank you very much for breaking it down into easy parts.
40 Lono : Loss for the year was 9 billion...... amazing..... you have to wonder about future layoffs
41 Panamair : of which $8.4 billion was for non-cash goodwill writeoff and one-time restructuring items. The 'layoffs' have already happened and are happening now,
42 Hjulicher : Yes CVG and DTW have the largest decreases in demand in the DL system, but that does not necessarily make them the weakest hub, perhaps it does if yo
43 Slcdeltarumd11 : The economy in the SLC metro area is still pretty strong compared to the rest of the US. Utah was the fastest growing state in 2008. ATL also has a p
44 Goaliemn : What happens to the contributions to the IAM pension? Would those be transferred to the 401K or would you get the benefits when you hit retirement ag
45 STT757 : It was taken out before the latest spat of violence in the Gaza broke out, there are numerous threads on here asking why it was delayed which all pre
46 MasseyBrown : You have to admire Bastian for trying. I loved his comment during the conf. call that the correct way to look at the cash outflow for counterparty de
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