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Record Production Forecast For A + B In 2009  
User currently offlineArt From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3382 posts, RR: 1
Posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 1830 times:

"Civil aircraft manufacturing is forecast to break all production records this year in the face of deteriorating trading conditions and financing shortages brought on by the global financial crisis.

The latest forecasts from the mainline airliner builders Airbus and Boeing put their combined output in 2009 as high as 960 aircraft"

Surprised?

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...record-levels-in-2009-despite.html

5 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineScbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12492 posts, RR: 46
Reply 1, posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 1780 times:
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Quoting Art (Thread starter):
Surprised?

Not really. At their January conference, Airbus said they expected production to match 2008 levels.

The problem with a cyclic industry, especially one with long lead-times, is the delivery cycle is just about always out of step with the order cycle.



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlineArt From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3382 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 1700 times:

I'm a little confused. Given all the handwringing over the possibility of deferred orders this year due to lack of credit, I would have expected forecast production to be lower than in 2008. In particular I remember Airbus talking of trimming A320 production.

User currently onlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30899 posts, RR: 87
Reply 3, posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 1690 times:
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Quoting Art (Reply 2):
I'm a little confused. Given all the hand-wringing over the possibility of deferred orders this year due to lack of credit...

The airlines already had the necessary financing in place when they placed the original order. So the main reason they would not take delivery now is worry they could not afford the payments.


User currently offlineArt From United Kingdom, joined Feb 2005, 3382 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 1584 times:



Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
The airlines already had the necessary financing in place when they placed the original order. So the main reason they would not take delivery now is worry they could not afford the payments.

Thanks for that info about order financing. So orders already placed for delivery in perhaps 2011/2011/2012 already have the finance "guaranteed" and should be unaffected by the credit crunch. Always assuming the financier still has the finance available!

I wonder how far ahead customers need to give notice of deferral and what penalties are payable.


User currently offlineScouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 3389 posts, RR: 9
Reply 5, posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days ago) and read 1558 times:



Quoting Art (Reply 2):
In particular I remember Airbus talking of trimming A320 production.

I think they were intially assessing whether planned increases shoudl take place and then in a couple of years time, looking as what would happen if they had to reduce production.


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