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Colgan Dash 8 Crash In Buffalo, NY - Part 4  
User currently offlinePanAm_DC10 From Australia, joined Aug 2000, 4162 posts, RR: 89
Posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 34432 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
COMMUNITY MANAGER

We now start the fourth thread for discussion of the crash of a Colgan Air Dash 8 Q400 performing flight CO3407 EWR-BUF on Thursday February 12th 2009. For continuation of the discussion the three previous threads are linked below;

Colgan Dash 8 Crash In Buffalo, NY

Colgan Dash 8 Crash In Buffalo, NY - Part 2

Colgan Dash 8 Crash In Buffalo, NY - Part 3


Ask the impossible to achieve the best possible
189 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineWilliam From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 1279 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 34429 times:

Turbo props respond pretty quickly (quicker than turbofans) to increased inputs. Per this article in the Buffalo news the pilot instantly "rammed" the throttles forward to increase speed when the AP disconnected. I am surprised those two turboprops didn't increase speed sufficiently. I am sure the NTSB is researching this as well.

User currently offlineDRAIGONAIR From Netherlands, joined Oct 2000, 708 posts, RR: 5
Reply 2, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 34399 times:

When the A/P was disconnected was the plane handed over to the pilot fully trimed out etc?

Flaps 15 and the other wing flaps 45? where did you get that info??

Nick



cheers
User currently offlineWilliam From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 1279 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 34405 times:

http://www.buffalonews.com/home/story/580853.html

I was refering to the above article.

The plane was moving at 115 mph at 250 ft at the last recording. The aircraft literally fell out of the sky. It is interesting there seems a point in time the aircraft stop obeying the aerodynamic laws of lift. With that being the case what could the pilot really have done even if he was hand flying?


User currently offlineWjcandee From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 5162 posts, RR: 22
Reply 4, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 34268 times:

That Buffalo News article is a nice, clear, balanced, accurate report. How refreshing.

User currently offline71Zulu From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 3081 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 34094 times:



Quoting DavidS2009:


NTSB said one flap was at 15, the other was at 45 when the plane crashed... that's odd.

I watched the briefing and never heard any mention of this. The only discussion of the flaps I remember was him saying that they selected Flaps 15 and intended to carry that setting to landing.



The good old days: Delta L-1011s at MSY
User currently offlineCubastar From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 408 posts, RR: 5
Reply 6, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 34028 times:



Quoting Wjcandee (Reply 4):
That Buffalo News article is a nice, clear, balanced, accurate report. How refreshing.

I was just getting ready to make a comment about the newspaper article myself. A nicely constructed article; articulate and easy to read and understand.


User currently offlineDavidS2009 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 14 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 34014 times:

Arrow you said:

Quote:
Another blanket statement that doesn't always hold up. I've experienced heavy snow at the surface with a temperature as high as +2C.

The surface temperature does not need to be at or below 0C in order for it to snow. In that case that you mentioned, the snow would simply melt on the ground. Being in Brooklyn, I've seen this several times. Big, fat fluffy flakes that come out of the sky that melt on the surface. In fact, if I grab my old Meteorology textbook from college - the warmest surface temperature ever recorded when it was snowing was 43 degrees.

The air temperature, and we're talking thousands of feet, must be below freezing from troposphere all the way down to just above the surface in order for snow to occur. If snow encountered an area above freezing in the mid-levels of the air, it would melt and you'd have either freezing rain or sleet. Again, you don't have to trust me on this - this information is widely available all over the internet and a free, local phone call to your local meteorologist. They will tell you the exact same thing I am posting here.


User currently offlineTangowhisky From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 926 posts, RR: 7
Reply 8, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 33876 times:

I am wondering if the following are possibilities. First the AP could not trim and the AP pitch servo was bearing just enough load to not trip off. Then, as the aircraft went through a configuration change for landing preparation, the AP could no longer hold the loads and disengaged. The plane pitched up, and one wing started to stall (a snap roll perhaps?) and the aircraft banked. Control wheel inputs were being applied by the pilot, but the rapid loss in speed stalled the plane to no recovery. What started all this was the fact that ice built up on the wings required more trim by the AP for those flight conditions than the design limit of the stabilizer. The AP ran out of stab trim and was holding a lot of load on the elevator /pitch controls.


Only the paranoid survive
User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5455 posts, RR: 30
Reply 9, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 33858 times:



Quoting DavidS2009 (Reply 7):

There was icing. There is no question about that so regardless of whatever other meteorological phenomena do or don't produce icing conditions, the weather that 3407 flew through, did.



What the...?
User currently offline2H4 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 8955 posts, RR: 60
Reply 10, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 33798 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
DATABASE EDITOR



Quoting DavidS2009:
NTSB said one flap was at 15, the other was at 45 when the plane crashed... that's odd.

DavidS, please explain where you heard this and provide a source.

2H4



Intentionally Left Blank
User currently offlineWilliam From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 1279 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 33674 times:

Tangowhisky,that scenario sounds very probable. I think when the NTSB is finished investigating we will see that a couple of "coincidences" together doomed this flight. The AP gave up control of the aircraft just when the pilot is making a change in wing configuration or the change in configuration was too much for the AP.

My question is if he had been at 10K instead of 3000 would he been able to fly out of the stall? When you read Flying mag they intentionally stall the aircraft in their reviews and talk about how smooth the recovery is. I am guessing having ice on the wing disrupting aerodynamics would not make this a textbook stall recovery moment.


User currently offlineJBirdAV8r From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 4490 posts, RR: 21
Reply 12, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 33563 times:



Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 9):
There was icing. There is no question about that so regardless of whatever other meteorological phenomena do or don't produce icing conditions, the weather that 3407 flew through, did.

 checkmark 

The atmosphere does what it does, regardless of what DavidS2009 says it should or should not.

When I've called out errors in his previous patronizing posts he's summarily ignored them. I don't know why I expect him to be any different, but here goes.

Quoting DavidS2009 (Reply 7):
The air temperature, and we're talking thousands of feet, must be below freezing from troposphere

We're in the troposphere. Perhaps you mean the tropopause? Even still...

Quoting DavidS2009 (Reply 7):
If snow encountered an area above freezing in the mid-levels of the air, it would melt and you'd have either freezing rain or sleet.

You are once again making sweeping generalizations. While that's generally true, precisely how do you explain a mixture of rain and snow? Yes, it happens. You are judging the "snow and only snow" report based on a METAR from the airport and "crash video"? That's not looking at the big picture. It may have only been snow for just the reasons you mentioned, but to say it is "impossible" to be otherwise is NOT CORRECT.

No one is saying freezing rain brought down Colgan 3407. You can certainly get rime ice from "light freezing mist" as you so incorrectly put it...I think the word you're searching for is "cloud." But your previous claim that it's impossible for aircraft to ice up...

Quoting DavidS2009 (Reply 198):
Anyway, it was impossible for the pilots to report "icing" conditions or "ice build up" on their plane. The reason? Because it was snowing on the surface.

...is ridiculous. I don't understand why you insist on posting things you know nothing about.



I got my head checked--by a jumbo jet
User currently offlineAtlturbine From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 158 posts, RR: 14
Reply 13, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 33449 times:

Regarding DavidS...

Quoting JBirdAV8r (Reply 12):
...is ridiculous. I don't understand why you insist on posting things you know nothing about.

Bravo....enough said.

Getting back to what 2H4 has asked 2 times now....DavidS where did you get the info about the flaps?????? Thus far it seems about as accurate as your meteorology lessons.



To the World you might be One Person but to One Person you might be the World
User currently offlineT prop From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 1029 posts, RR: 1
Reply 14, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 33278 times:

"NTSB said one flap was at 15, the other was at 45 when the plane crashed... that's odd."

The guy who posted that is a troll... Max flaps on all Dash 8 is 35 degrees.


User currently offlineTTailSteve From United States of America, joined May 2006, 113 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 32986 times:



Quoting T prop (Reply 14):
"NTSB said one flap was at 15, the other was at 45 when the plane crashed... that's odd."

The guy who posted that is a troll... Max flaps on all Dash 8 is 35 degrees.

Correct max is 35.

However very early on a local reporter was on scene pretty close to the accident and tried to describe the condition of the plane as it was on fire and made some nonsense comments about the flaps and not looking correct...also mentioned landing gear as well....this was a bad observation by an inexperienced reporter who wasn't really even close enough to make a proper observation--and even if he was close enough clearly wouldn't know a flap from a roofing shingle. Also, the plane had just crashed and was on fire so the plane was inn horrible condition anyway No one has repeated, to my knowledge, some of his very very early observation and speculation. He had a really tough time with his comments and was left live on air via a cell phone to basically vamp about a situation he didn't know much about and to his credit even said he didn't have much information.


User currently offlineKBUF From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 545 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 32657 times:

Please pass to everyone you can think of…it takes one minute to sign the petition.

Link below to a petition for Extreme Makeover Home Edition to build a new house for the family in Clarence.

http://www.petitiononline.com/Hope4You/petition.html



"Starting today, the Buffalo Sabres' reason for existence will be to win a Stanley Cup."-Terry Pegula, February 22, 2011
User currently offlineIhadapheo From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 6027 posts, RR: 55
Reply 17, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 32451 times:

DavidS2009 said ....

"You cannot have freezing rain in the air when it's snowing on the ground! Don't believe me - look it up for yourself!"

xxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Sorry to refute your claims but I am of the belief that there may be an error in your theory. Living here in KBUF I can say this on the day of the accident I drove in weather were there was simultaneous freezing and and snow. The mix would change in the percentage of each but there was clearly a mix of both falling at the same time. In fact much earlier in the day (on my 0600 ride to work) the weather was much worse mix of rain, snow, freezing rain) than it was on my evening shopping and dining drive that took me within about 4 miles of the crash site. Yes my SUV was on the ground and aloft but if there is "mixed precipitation" on the ground my old and feeble mind sees no reason why there could not be a similar mix 1800' above the roof of my SUV.

IHAP

To those with a better grasp of meteorology please excuse any errors in my post, but I have lived in KBUF for all 46 years of my life and we have this mixed precip' quite often and to have someone say that freezing rain and snow are mutually exclusive is in my opinion wrong.



Pray hard but pray with care For the tears that you are crying now Are just your answered prayers
User currently offlineBaw2198 From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 637 posts, RR: 4
Reply 18, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 31960 times:

To Mr DavidS2009,

I do so enjoy teaching, so here we go to inform, enlighten, and enrich your aviation interest:

Temperature Inversion
(surface-based or elevated) : a layer of the atmosphere in which air temperature increases with height. When the layer's base is at the surface, the layer is called a surface-based temperature inversion; when the base of the layer is above the surface, the layer is called an elevated temperature inversion.

Freezing Drizzle
A drizzle that falls as a liquid but freezes into glaze or rime upon contact with the cold ground or surface structures.

Freezing Fog
A suspension of numerous minute ice crystals in the air, or water droplets at temperatures below 0º Celsius, based at the Earth's surface, which reduces horizontal visibility; also called ice fog.

Freezing Rain
Rain that falls as a liquid but freezes into glaze upon contact with the ground.

Borrowed from http://www.weather.gov/education.php

Additional freezing rain info with graphics found here:

http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/cld/prcp/zr/frz.rxml
(University of Illinois)

Nasa article using Nasa test aircraft ( DHC6 Twin Otter )

http://gltrs.grc.nasa.gov/reports/2000/TM-2000-210058.pdf

Additional temp inversion found here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temperature_inversion

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/slc/climate/TemperatureInversions.php


Enjoy the material, I'll be happy to help with any more questions that you seek answers too in weather.

Happy Contrails

Aaron

edit: spelling + addtional info

[Edited 2009-02-16 19:37:09

[Edited 2009-02-16 19:38:13]

edit edit: additional aviation info added, computer connection timed out

[Edited 2009-02-16 19:44:26]


"And remember, Keep your stick on the ice"--->Red Green
User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11336 posts, RR: 52
Reply 19, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 31780 times:



Quoting KBUF (Reply 16):
Please pass to everyone you can think of…it takes one minute to sign the petition.

Link below to a petition for Extreme Makeover Home Edition to build a new house for the family in Clarence.

Does the family not have homeowners' insurance?

Nice idea, but probably misplaced.

(And probably wrong forum too.)



Send me a PM at http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/sendmessage.main?from_username=NULL
User currently offlineBravo1six From Canada, joined Dec 2007, 397 posts, RR: 2
Reply 20, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 31714 times:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1234...1565793263.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

From the above link:

"But when the nose of the plane suddenly pitched up some 30 degrees and the tail surfaces lost lift, it appears that could have been the first indication the crew had that the plane was in a stall and essentially had lost the ability to stay in the air. Reducing power typically is the way to get planes with a design like the Q400 out of such a dangerous situation, but pilots have to be aware they are in a stall. Just before impact, the pilots pushed the throttles to full power, according to the safety board."

Huh? I thought you ADD power to recover from a stall???? Unless the WSJ is referring to a tail stall?????


User currently offlineEMBQA From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 9364 posts, RR: 11
Reply 21, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 31624 times:

Quoting DRAIGONAIR (Reply 2):

Flaps 15 and the other wing flaps 45? where did you get that info??



Quoting T prop (Reply 14):
"NTSB said one flap was at 15, the other was at 45 when the plane crashed... that's odd."

The guy who posted that is a troll... Max flaps on all Dash 8 is 35 degrees.

Before you jump all over this... who is to say that during the loss of control the flap interconnect did break and the flaps actually split...? 35 maybe max, but who knows what conditions the airframe was under during the last seconds....parts could be breaking and doing things not designed to do....It's times like this I hate getting on A.net.. all the wanna be NTSB, CSi, FAA investigator types come out with 'all the answers' Let the real NTSB do their job and be greatful you are not one of them. They are dealing with mass death and great carnage and will piece it all back together and figure out what happened. Those of us that actually work in this business are effected by this and once again are reminded 'by the grace of God go I'

[Edited 2009-02-16 20:03:59]


"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog"
User currently offlineTdubjfk From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 31421 times:



Quoting KBUF (Reply 16):
Please pass to everyone you can think of…it takes one minute to sign the petition.

Link below to a petition for Extreme Makeover Home Edition to build a new house for the family in Clarence.

http://www.petitiononline.com/Hope4Y....html

GREAT idea, KBUF. I've signed it and have passed it on to several others.


User currently offlineAtlturbine From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 158 posts, RR: 14
Reply 23, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 31329 times:



Quoting EMBQA (Reply 21):
Before you jump all over this... who is to say that during the loss of control the flap interconnect did break and the flaps actually split...? 35 maybe max, but who knows what conditions the airframe was under during the last seconds....parts could be breaking and doing things not designed to do....It's times like this I hate getting on A.net

That is why DavidS2009 has been asked politely & repeatedly to name the source of his supposed "information". A link to a credible source would add a lot of credibility to this. Have you seen this guys previous posts regarding weather conditions @ the time of the crash? I would suggest reviewing them before defending his speculation.

 confused 



To the World you might be One Person but to One Person you might be the World
User currently offlineAtlturbine From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 158 posts, RR: 14
Reply 24, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 31254 times:



Quoting D L X (Reply 19):
Does the family not have homeowners' insurance?

Nice idea, but probably misplaced.

(And probably wrong forum too.)

Your compassion is overwhelming. May I ask why this is misplaced? In addition..since this is where this tragedy is being discussed why is it the wrong forum?

This television show provides a service at no cost to you sir, to families in desperate need of a new home due to circumstances beyond their control...why would you be opposed to this great suggestion?



To the World you might be One Person but to One Person you might be the World
25 STT757 : Going by the experiences after the AA flt 587 crash folks would probably prefer the homesite become a park, playground, memorial for the victims and
26 PlanesNTrains : Living in Seattle, you learn to discuss "temperature inversions" and "convergence zones" at the dinner table with your kids. It's that common. I am s
27 Rikkus67 : Ihadapheo... We often get the phenonmenon here... with being situated close to the Rocky Mountains. The warm Pacific winds blow over them, and we can
28 Post contains links Sidishus : Environmental conditions like those that existed in the area on the night of the accident are not nearly as idealized as you seem to believe. The are
29 Wjcandee : I myself had concerns about automation complacency like what you are describing. However, they are alleviated somewhat by the Board's statement that
30 Mir : You do add power to recover from a wing stall (generally - if you had an engine failure, going to full power on the good engine to recover from a sta
31 Post contains links Alessandro : A bit more about the pilot, http://www.mahalo.com/Marvin_Renslow grew up in Iowa.
32 Sidishus : As severe icing often occurs in the "micro scale" -extremely limited in area and duration- its every bit as specious (at this point) to backfit the e
33 RIXrat : Although it seems like a very touchy idea to have the "Extreme Makeover" people redo their house for free, I don't think that the surviving family mem
34 Post contains images Nycbjr : I know this has been covered already.. but I want to express my deep sorrow for this incident.. and to the families and all who are involved.. I'm hap
35 PlanesNTrains : Sadly, you are correct, though it's hard to say how long that will take. However, the bottom line is that, while it is great to express our condolenc
36 Mir : The Q400 is a relatively new type to Colgan, so it's natural that some of their captains might have low time on the aircraft. -Mir
37 Nycbjr : thanks mir, to someone not flying I think if 110 hrs as a bit over 3 weeks or work (I'm well aware of the faa minimums for pilots) just make a very g
38 Mir : 110 hours is more than a month. Pilots can't fly more than 100 hours a month. I'd put a ballpark figure for 110 hours at about a month and a half, if
39 Wjcandee : In addition to Mir's point, the f/o had a lot of time on that aircraft, as a percentage of her total time, about a third. Regionals will hire low-time
40 Nycbjr : thanks guys as I wrote this last night (insomnia) it dawned on me that he probably had considerable time in the right seat prior, as I said I do not c
41 Xdlx : Agreed...!
42 Nelsonde : I don't agree that money takes care of all the pain caused by the death of a family member. Time and healing helps, and while money doesn't hurt, it
43 UAopsMGR : This was mentioned this morning in the Buff News article: "Bombardier, the maker of the Dash 8, has told the NTSB that the airplane is not susceptibl
44 D L X : Hey man, it's not discompassionate. When there is a big well-publicized tragedy, it is often the case that people's goodwill and generosity all flood
45 William : Will a pilot please answer the question why decreasing power in a tail stall is preferable?
46 AndrewUber : As the NASA video from thread 1 points out, during a TAILPLANE stall - which is suspected here - adding power can actually make matters worse. Changi
47 Mir : If the tail were to stall, and thus stop producing downward force, the nose should drop, not lift. -Mir
48 Adam42185 : thats what i thought considering the horizontal stabilizer creates downwash, or whatever you call downward force, on the rear of the aircraft to keep
49 ULMFlyer : Just to complement, the NTSB briefer mentioned yesterday the existence of a PIREP of severe icing around Dunkirk, NY, which is 50 mi SW of Buffalo.
50 Tangowhisky : Maybe it is about time to make flight simulators capable of icing condition training/fidelity and thus the recovery training for turboprops in the sam
51 FaxiTMA : The horizontal stabilizer is actually an inverted cambered airfoil (in some cases symmetrical) thus creating a downward "lift". Downwash is the flow
52 Post contains links Zrb2 : Interesting article in today's Buffalo News about the creator of LiveATC.net and the Buffalo area volunteer who provided the feed from BUF for 3407. h
53 Logos : Agreed. Interestingly enough, when I correctly identified him as such yesterday my post was removed. I guess I wasn't nice enough. He's merely trying
54 EstorilM : I was thinking about this too.. the plane wasn't full, and also had a light fuel load at that point - with those two ~5000hp turboprops and relativel
55 Wjcandee : I have to say that the NTSB does NOT have any reason to believe that this is the scenario here. The briefer said as much yesterday: that there was no
56 Ultrapig : The airline pilot seniority system is in a way backwards. As a non- pilot it seems to me that although a pilot of a larger plane is responsible for mo
57 Post contains links YYZYYT : here is the video again... I strongly recommend watching it to get an understanding of the aerodynamic issues facing the flight: http://video.google.
58 Rikkus67 : IIRC, from what I have read, the co-pilot spent all of her time with the airline on the Dash 8 aircraft?
59 Crjflyer35 : During a tailstall, the airflow over the elevator can literally rip the yoke from your hands, reducing power reduces airflow, thus allowing the pilot
60 Boacvc10 : I am sorry for the victims of the aircraft disaster, after watching this video, it is (as someone in part 1 or 2 of this thread wrote) - tailplane ic
61 BuyantUkhaa : I just watched it and it seems perfectly possible that this happened... couldn't there be a way of giving extra warning to the pilots of this happeni
62 EstorilM : Oh okay, I haven't been following the briefs that much as I've been at work constantly.. but my point still holds true in other AP disconnect-related
63 D L X : " target=_blank>http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...79946 WOW. That video is enlightening! The thing is, doesn't this condition still require that
64 Nomadd22 : Since the pilot didn't retract flaps and he added power it looks like he might have assumed wing stall. Are there situations where extending flaps cou
65 Oswegobag : I live in BUF and listining to NPR (National Public Radio News) today in my car, I heard that there was an individual who video recorded with his cell
66 D L X : My guess is that the FBI deals with the public and gives relevant information over to the NTSB. My friend in NYC reported that when large bird pieces
67 KBUF : Per the Buffalo News: The captain of Flight 3407, Marvin D. Renslow, completed his training on a Dash 8 just two months ago and had 110 hours flying t
68 Richierich : You are not kidding... its a very dry video but it is very informative. It certainly does sound a lot like what happened but obviously this investiga
69 LGA777 : Ironically 3268 was the 1630 departure from EWR to BUF which appeared to be running about 5 hours late, which makes me wonder if some of the 3407 pas
70 Silentbob : I believe this will be mentioned in the final report. It will not be the cause of the crash but it will be discussed. NTSB doesn't have enough invest
71 JoeCanuck : If ice turns out to be a cause of the accident, I suspect hand flying will recommended for more flight conditions.
72 Gatorman96 : I have no idea, which is why I'm asking the question, but if the F/O had more than 600 hrs in the Dash 8 than the captain, why is she the FO and not
73 Mir : He did have more experience, more than 1,000 more hours worth with Colgan. -Mir[Edited 2009-02-17 19:50:24]
74 Tangowhisky : Is that all? What about revising the certification and design of the plane. Isn't there merit to review these to see if anything fell through the cra
75 727forever : From what I have read it said that the flaps were retracted after the upset. Perhaps this did not happen as the report that I read was early on. Howe
76 Silentbob : While she had more time in the Dash, he had around one thousand more total hours than she did.
77 Gatorman96 : Thanks for the explanation, makes perfect sense...
78 JoeCanuck : I didn't say that is all. It is merely one thing. Judging by the number of hours safely and uneventfully flown by the Q400 in a variety of conditions
79 Post contains links ULMFlyer : If the WSJ is right, pilot error will be a major contributing factor. Fair use excerpt: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123492905826906821.html I don'
80 Post contains links Aviators99 : http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123492905826906821.html
81 Unmlobo : Pilot error may indeed turn out to be a contributing factor in this accident, but one has to ask what caused the airplane to slow to such an unstable
82 JoeCanuck : Indeed...does the Q400 have auto throttle?
83 T prop : The aircraft was in a descent and then leveled out at 2300 ft. The autopilot will try and maintain altitude but it won't add engine power, the pilots
84 Post contains images AeroHero128 : At a good risk of looking completely foolish, I'll use my remedial MSPaint capacity to shed further light on the situation. Other posters addressed t
85 Wjcandee : For the WSJ to say that the present accident has "many similarities" to the Pinnacle "41,000 Club" accident is totally asinine. If they are saying tha
86 Bennett123 : IMO, it seems daft to pull back on the controls when the Stick Shaker activates. If I, (a Non Pilot) can see that then surely 2 experienced pilots can
87 Starlionblue : It might seem so to us comfortably ensconced in our chairs, but these guys were in a noisy cockpit, in a busy situation, in some suboptimal weather.
88 Zrb2 : That WSJ article really implicates the pilot imo. I hope they can determine what caused the plane to slow to an unsafe speed. It might just be that ic
89 Mir : I don't think so. I think it's like the system in the CRJ, where you can have the autopilot set pitch to control speed at a certain thrust setting ba
90 Khobar : Hence his comment "Something doesn't add up here."
91 Voar : Could be the pilot watched the NASA taiplane ice video, and was trying to recover as per its recommendations. When flaps were lowered the aircraft pit
92 CAL764 : This is exactly what I was thinking, but all the contemplation regarding why the a/c slowed: could it have encountered a strong tailwind, which would
93 Aviators99 : I hope that's not the case. So much time is spent in training on what to do during a stick shaker, that it should be second nature to do what the car
94 CAL764 : Also, their's quite a bit of talk on WSJ.com article comments as to whether the crew of Colgan 3407 had timed out or not; exceeded their 18 hours. Whi
95 Post contains links ULMFlyer : This is a very good observation. I'm not sure the Twin Otter has a stick shaker/pusher (doubt the latter), so in the Q400 both activating could easil
96 FaxiTMA : Since we are speaking of stalls, can the Dash-8 enter a deep stall?
97 Post contains images Dragon6172 : Is their a sensor for the FDR that marks when the stick shaker activated? Or are they going by the sound on the CVR? In a tail plane stall, would feed
98 Post contains links KBUF : Buffalo, NY -- Members of Westboro Baptist Church in Topeka, Kan., who are known for picketing the funerals of U.S. troops, are planning to protest tw
99 Dragon6172 : I hope they get frost bite.
100 KstateinALB : It's so stupid. They picketed a few K-State football games last semester, and made the entire university look bad. These people really need a kick in
101 Boeing4ever : I know, let's find a spare Q400, fly it in icing conditions, and test all the scenarios for the Flight 3407 crash...with the WBC members on board! Ok,
102 Sxmarbury33 : I guess I am in the camp that thinks they zoned out or were distracted, added gear and flaps, forgot to add power and got into a traditional wing stal
103 Nycbjr : to what ends? what are they protesting? looking for publicity? this is absurd!
104 Sxmarbury33 : I can't figure out how to edit my post but also usually one wing will stall before the other. Wouldnt this be consistent with the horizontal upset the
105 Post contains links Comorin : Here is their busy schedule spreading the Word of God: http://www.godhatesfags.com/schedule.html Pure, concentrated Evil, can't believe our laws perm
106 DCA-ROCguy : Dear Gang, I've been following the Flight 3407 threads as best my life allows, and have a question that (I think) no one has raised yet. If I'm duplic
107 EMBQA : I can't say for 100%... but most modern FDR record a ton of information.. so I'm sure there is something covers that channel.
108 UltimateDelta : It could be that, but I suppose there are zillions of possible explanations. There could have been a wind gust (after all, strong winds were an issue
109 EMBQA : Did the cord change....????
110 JoeCanuck : I believe that the stick shaker and pusher indicate a main wing stall. I don't know if there is any specific warning of a tail stall. The Q400 wing h
111 Boeing4ever : That's what bothers me. While the NASA videos linked clearly give off a Nostradamus vibe, it's important to note that the de-icing boots were activat
112 D L X : That might be a dangerous way to think when doing an investigation. Maybe there's a basic problem with the type, and we discovered it NOW. What I'm s
113 RedFlyer : I think wing area and not wingspan alone is the criteria for determining the amount of lift. The question would be how much more wing area does the Q
114 Bennett123 : According to Aircraft Data on this site; DHC8-100 34,500 Lb MTO 585 sq feet wing loading 58.97 DHC8-300 43,000 Lb MTO 605 sq feet wing loading 71.07 D
115 JoeCanuck : In that case, they never did ground the entire 737 fleet. My point was not to exclude possibilities but if there was a problem with something as basi
116 DavidS2009 : There was another Dash-8 that had moderate icing on its wings and tail that landed at the same airport the same night without any problems. I don't kn
117 Mir : We have no way of knowing that. Yes, the speed dropped off, but to put the blame for that on the autopilot is very premature. -Mir
118 Post contains links JoeCanuck : A supercooled water droplet is water which is below freezing. They usually require a nucleus to get them to freeze, or contact with something else wh
119 UltimateDelta : On the news I just heard that the captain only had about 110 hours in the Dash 8 and the F/O 770. Why exactly would Colgan let people with that level
120 EMBQA : How much total time in type do the A380 Capt's now have...??? It's the same deal. It is a new aircraft for the airline. I bet the #1 A380 Capt has ju
121 Mir : How exactly would you like people to start flying a certain type of aircraft with lots of hours of experience in that aircraft? The captain had about
122 F9Animal : This is totally uncalled for, and should not be allowed. This church group is obviously a cult of some sort. Do they not have funerals for people in
123 Boeing4ever : I'm not necessarily blaming the autopilot here. The autopilot was likely trying to hold altitude or descent rate, and may have had difficulty doing s
124 JoeCanuck : Actually, the stick shaker and pusher will probably use a combination of angle of attack indicator and airspeed indicator. They indicate a main wing
125 Starlionblue : It's a free country. That means "free for everyone", not just "free for people who agree with my beliefs". I am also disgusted, but I would defend th
126 Boeing4ever : You're right. When you think about it, a tail stall will probably keep AoA and airspeed out of the wing stall threshold with the tendency to pitch do
127 Post contains links Rampart : I don't have access to upper air soundings at the time of the accident, and I think the only way you can get that is pilot reports. Plus, there might
128 Atlturbine : So is it possible that after all the speculation...ice had nothing to do with this crash. After 1 million hours this has been a great airframe.
129 D L X : It could be that ice had nothing to do with this accident (i.e., anti-ice systems working properly, no ice on wings or tailplanes) but seeing that the
130 71Zulu : Found this supposed memo on another board and have no idea if it is real. If true, this could add a whole new dimension to the accident. 3407 would h
131 Mir : Very unlikely. Ice may not turn out to be the primary cause, but I'd be very surprised if it wasn't a factor. Do we know that those things happened?
132 Dragon6172 : I really think everyone took offense when you said it was "impossible" for these pilots to have reported ice when it was snowing. As I said earlier,
133 D L X : No, I'm speculating at a cause.
134 Post contains links Flightwatcher : Buffalo Plane Crash Probe: A Focus on Stick-Pusher Training Federal investigators are examining cockpit training at Colgan Air in light of evidence su
135 RedFlyer : Interesting numbers. The Q400's WL is considerably higher than its stablemates', and it's higher by about another ~15% than the ATR-72, a comparable
136 Zrb2 : That's really interesting. This accident gets stranger by the minute. I'm not a pilot but I thought the auto pilot disengaged because the stick shake
137 Post contains links BuyantUkhaa : I see where you're coming from - however, the UK government apparently has taken a different view and today decided to deny Westboro members from ent
138 727forever : I don't know how much I am buying the WSJ theory. I have seen nothing from the NTSB or other media sources noting that the NTSB is saying that the pil
139 Post contains links Zrb2 : Yeah- I used a poor choice of words in my post. -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
140 Post contains links Nomadd22 : OK http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/02/19/buffalo.crash.ils/index.html "The alert, reissued Wednesday by the airline's pilot association, warned Southwest p
141 SEPilot : I am only aware of 2 (Pittsburgh and Denver); what was the third?
142 DingDong : Eastwind Airlines Flight 517 approaching Richmond, Virginia in 1996. The flight crew was able to recover and ultimately land safely. The data gleaned
143 Beagleboys : i've read it right now from the cnn site... it may be an alternative explanation to ice. Just a question: the AP would everyting the ILS (or the radi
144 Nomadd22 : Now, some are drifting back to wing stall, and the pilot panicking and pulling back when the nose automatically drops to try to regain speed. I'm not
145 Aviators99 : It also could explain the pilot continuing to pull back in the face of a stall. He would have thought he was well below the glidescope, and making a
146 Unmlobo : In regards to the Southwest notice to pilots does anybody else remember the audio of the controller and DL 1998 when it was trying to land? I believe
147 Dragon6172 : I think that the accident just happened, the first plane he cleared for the ILS was Delta, and not knowing what caused the accident he was throwing a
148 DingDong : Context was: controller saw CO 3407 go off course just as it intercepted the marker. So controller wondered if somehow, perhaps, there was some kind
149 Starlionblue : I recommend you grow a thicker skin. I cannot count the number of times I have been told I am completely and utterly wrong on this board. And I learn
150 Post contains links Flightwatcher : One interesting item that has emerged is that on Wednesday, the union that represents the pilots at Dallas-based Southwest Airlines Co. issued a bulle
151 Post contains links Zrb2 : The Buffalo News had a pretty good article today. They quote some "experts" about the “supercooled large droplet icing” that is extremly dangerous
152 Post contains links RW170 : MetroJet Flight 2710 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MetroJet_2710
153 Mir : If you feel that way, that's your perrogative. But remember that jets have heated leading edges, not heated wings. It is just as possible for ice to
154 Max550 : Have there been any accidents caused by icing on jets wings? I can't think of any off the top of my head, but I'm sure there have been.
155 757GB : I know what you mean. Yet maybe we need to take a step back and look at this from a different perspective. I'm new as an Anet member, yet I've been a
156 Smcmac32msn : The only time there has been accidents involving ice on the wings (not leading edges) was the rash of accidents involving Challenger's around 2005 tr
157 Post contains links Tangowhisky : There is also Scandinavian Airlines Flight 751. The ice was on the wings that formed on the ground. Engines ingested the ice and lost power. Keep in m
158 Max550 : I completely forgot about Air Florida Flt 90, which again is ice related but not failure of the anti-ice system.
159 Litz : It should be noted that the above incidents, and almost all the other ice-related jet incidents, are takeoff accidents/incidents (or very very short f
160 Post contains links Zrb2 : Take a listen from about the 2:40 mark of this clip. I'm not sure if it's been posted on this huge thread? I had not heard this until now. It's ATC ta
161 EMBQA : I'm not sure I would have told him. He's got enough dealing with an IMC Approach...
162 Post contains links CYLW : You're kidding right? Ice behind the leading edges is just as dangerous. From Transport Canada (a) ice accretion on lifting surfaces will change thei
163 Post contains links DingDong : Wow, didn't see this coming: NTSB's Steven Chealander submitted his resignation, effective on February 28th: http://ntsb.gov/Pressrel/2009/090220.html
164 Maxpower1954 : For those of you that might have missed my post quite a ways back... I can't find a single accident in the Aviation Safety Network database related to
165 Smcmac32msn : " target=_blank>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/America..._4184 Ok..... 4184 was a TURBOPROP, I was answering a question about jet aircraft. Name me a f
166 Mir : On the one hand, it's true that having that in the back of your mind as you shoot the approach isn't ideal. But on the other, pilots need as much inf
167 Atlturbine : Anything "thermal" or bleed air related is an anti-ice system, not de-ice. Boots have been & are still used on a wide variety of aircraft from The Ha
168 Maxpower1954 : I appreciate the thoughtful response, Mitch...here's some more of mine! Back in the pre-historic era when I flew the mighty DC-8, the thermal system i
169 Atlturbine : Maxpower1954 I appreciate that valuable insight. My only question is.....am I incorrect in asking if the aircraft in your reference were of 4 engine d
170 JoeCanuck : According to one of the NASA videos, (at least the way I interpreted it), it seemed that heated leading edges don't necessarily provide better protec
171 T prop : Does no one think that 134 knots, the speed this airplane was doing clean (prior to lowering flaps/ gear) is low? It's weight was about 55,000 lbs at
172 CYLW : I can't think of one either, but to say "I wouldn't be worried so much about icing behind the leading edges if you're already in air. It still could
173 Smcmac32msn : Show me a jet (in flight) that has had runback ice as 4184 did, and I'll change my position. You only read the 2nd half of my post and didn't read th
174 FlyingAY : As far as I understand, the 787 is not using bleed air to heat the leading edges, because its engines are bleedless. In 787 there's some kind of elec
175 Maxpower1954 : NASA is very good at what is does, which is research. They have little to no experience operating in the real world. If your interpetation is boots a
176 Maxpower1954 : On the piston engine airliners regardless of the number of engines, a combustion heater was used, similar to a cabin heater in a light twin today. Th
177 Nomadd22 : The 787 will use from 45kw to 75kw for it's deicing system. Granted, a turbo prop will would use a lot less than that, but still too much for the ele
178 Post contains links KBUF : WASHINGTON — A gap in federal regulations allows turboprop planes to be flown without ever being certified as safe in the most dangerous icy conditi
179 Tangowhisky : Does anyone know which FARs this is referred to?
180 JoeCanuck : According to the NASA videos, (at least when they were released), there are no aircraft, prop or jet, which are certified for continuous flight in SLD
181 Post contains links KBUF : Well, I guess it comes as no surprise that legal experts expect lawsuits aplenty to be filed on behalf of the victims. http://www.buffalonews.com/home
182 Prebennorholm : I can't imagine that boots are not a perfectly safe way of fighting ice. When properly designed, of course. Scandinavia is with its moist climate prob
183 Starlionblue : I agree it's not good for icing (and your post is great as usual), but I would argue against the blanket definition of Scandinavia as "moist". Most o
184 Post contains links JoeCanuck : http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...finds-checklists-not-followed.html In the kalmar incident, the pilot in command failed to shut down and feathe
185 Prebennorholm : You are absolutely right. In northern Sweden and eastern Norway there are fairly dry places. But then they also have fairly good roads and railroads.
186 Prebennorholm : I read the Swedish report some time ago, but can't find it now. It said that hydraulic failure caused propeller pitch control failure. SAS suffered s
187 DingDong : Just out of curiosity - how much is the media in SAS's service area reporting on this crash? Extensive coverage? Moderate? Light? I'm just curious giv
188 Post contains links KBUF : " target=_blank>http://www.buffalonews.com/home/stor....html And so it begins... "Less than two weeks after the crash of Continental Flight 3407, a n
189 Post contains links KBUF : Interesting article in today's Buffalo News about an icing experiment done in 2002: http://www.buffalonews.com/home/story/592867.html
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