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Analyst Warn Of Air Canada Bankruptcy  
User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 25730 posts, RR: 50
Posted (5 years 8 months 6 days ago) and read 15307 times:

Dark clouds on the horizon.

Funny how fast things can swing from bad, to good, and now back to bad for AC.

Quote:
Air Canada could be forced into bankruptcy - UBS

CALGARY, Alberta, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Air Canada, the country's biggest airline, could be forced to file for bankruptcy protection if it does not secure additional financing and succeed in renegotiating covenants in credit card agreements, UBS analyst Fadi Chamoun said.

"Notwithstanding lower fuel costs, we believe that cash from operations will be insufficient to meet rising pension funding obligations and over C$1 billion ($800 million) of debt repayment over the next two years," Chamoun said in a note dated Feb. 13.

Covenants in credit card agreements could tighten further in the second quarter and result in the airline being required to maintain higher cash deposits, said Chamoun, who downgraded Air Canada shares to "sell" from "neutral". He also cut his target price for its shares to C$1 from C$1.50.

"In the absence of additional financing (sale of assets) and renegotiation of covenants in credit card agreements, Air Canada could be forced to file for bankruptcy in our opinion," he wrote.

Full story
http://www.reuters.com/article/marke...sNews/idCABNG39272820090217?rpc=44


From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
79 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineCaymanair From Cayman Islands, joined Apr 2004, 856 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (5 years 8 months 6 days ago) and read 15299 times:

I hope this doesnt come to fruition... AC is the best airline on the continent, hands down, and is one of my favourite carriers.

User currently offlineBmacleod From Canada, joined Aug 2001, 2305 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (5 years 8 months 6 days ago) and read 15228 times:

AC is well connected as far as emergency financing goes so unless things really take a turn for the worse, I can't see them filing again this year for CCA bankruptcy protection....


The engine is the heart of an airplane, but the pilot is its soul.
User currently offlineAtrude777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 5694 posts, RR: 52
Reply 3, posted (5 years 8 months 6 days ago) and read 15190 times:

Airlines that have to file BK twice rarely ever make it out alive.

CO took an amazing turn after the 2nd filing, however TWA, and US Airways wound up being submitted to other airlines after their 2nd BK filing.

Hopefully AC will not have to file again and they can make it out ok, I do love their 777's!  Silly

Alex



Good things come to those who wait, better things come to those who go AFTER it!
User currently offlineTango-Bravo From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 3806 posts, RR: 29
Reply 4, posted (5 years 8 months 6 days ago) and read 15008 times:



Quoting Atrude777 (Reply 3):
Airlines that have to file BK twice rarely ever make it out alive.

As well they (airlines/businesses in general) shouldn't... with all due respect to Air Canada and my sincere wishes for their survival as a viable airline.

Given the scandalous extent to which lax bankruptcy law allows airlines/businesses to legally stiff their employees and creditors and gain cost advantages not conferred upon their competitors, if once (through bankruptcy) isn't enough, it should be "good riddance."


User currently offlineSkymiler From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 531 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (5 years 8 months 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 14942 times:

Do analysts really have much credibility any more, do they just seek free press?
Recent economic history shows that they are often way off target (Telecomm boom/bust, end of current recession in late 2008, etc, etc).
Some are noteworthy, but in general they seem to be pot-stirrers only ... or like to see the markets move at their behest ...

My  twocents 



I love to fly, and it shows!
User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (5 years 8 months 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 14728 times:

the issue is not that analysts don't have credibility but that the business climate is changing so quickly. JL is asking for government help. Who would have thought a year ago? This is just a brutal time in the economy... when business travel is down as much as it is, lots of carriers are going to be hurt.
AC might be able to turn things around quickly but it goes to show the cash cushion that was previously thought as sufficient for alot of airlines is no longer comfortable.


User currently offlineB747-4U3 From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2002, 991 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (5 years 8 months 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 14597 times:



Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 6):
the issue is not that analysts don't have credibility but that the business climate is changing so quickly

I would also say that as well as the rapidly changing business climate, there is so much uncertainty about the future. AC may well have more than enough cash to cover huge losses over the next two years, but what about after that? When will the economy improve? How long will it take? It seems that ever analyst seems to be coming up with vastly different predictions. It must therefore be very hard for airlines to predict their long term survival.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 6):
JL is asking for government help. Who would have thought a year ago?

I'm not absolutely familiar with JL's financial situation, but I recall them having had a tough few years recently. Perhaps their cash reserves are now lower than they would like.

Quoting Skymiler (Reply 5):
Do analysts really have much credibility any more, do they just seek free press?
Recent economic history shows that they are often way off target (Telecomm boom/bust, end of current recession in late 2008, etc, etc).
Some are noteworthy, but in general they seem to be pot-stirrers only ... or like to see the markets move at their behest ...

I think that analysts play a vital role in bringing peoples' attention to important issues. In the end they may turn out to be way off the mark, but by identifying and making public certain problem areas in a company or economy they can be beneficial. Of course, there are always some idiots who have hidden agendas.

I think in this case the analyst makes a very fair point. AC isn't in a good financial position and there is a lack of certainty about the future. Thus I think it is quite fair to predict that at some point in the next 2-3 years AC may have to enter bankruptcy again. As things stand I doubt that will happen, but it is a definite possibility.


User currently offlineYVR1968 From Australia, joined Feb 2004, 704 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (5 years 8 months 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 14569 times:



Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 6):
AC might be able to turn things around quickly

With the environment now, I would doubt that, things will probably only get worse. AC is going to have to make some serious decisions about grounding aircraft, cutting capacity etc..etc...like SQ, QF have been doing, among others.

They certainly did not get very good press around the Christmas period the way they dealt with the snow problems at YVR. So from a PR perspective they sure got creamed by the media. Customer service took a real beating with their skeleten crew structure.

Well, with companies around the world being bailed out by governments, I wouldn't be surprised if we have another bailout on the horizon. I cannot imagine the Canadian government allowing the carrier to go bye bye. But, with the billions pumped into the auto industry, I wonder how much cash will be left to continue bailing out companies... I mean, where do you draw the line.


User currently offlinePnwtraveler From Canada, joined Jun 2007, 2248 posts, RR: 12
Reply 9, posted (5 years 8 months 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 14480 times:

The paper this morning made the point that with quite a few analysts commenting on this topic of the AC loss, this fellow was the only one to use the B word. He could be right but too many times analysts get it wrong. He also could be more interested in influencing the labour negotiations that will be underway this year.

User currently offlineYVRtoYYZ From Canada, joined Mar 2004, 664 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (5 years 8 months 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 14480 times:

Doesn't AC have labour contracts to renew this year as well?

User currently offlineMasseyBrown From United States of America, joined Dec 2002, 5493 posts, RR: 7
Reply 11, posted (5 years 8 months 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 14454 times:



Quoting Skymiler (Reply 5):
Do analysts really have much credibility any more, do they just seek free press?

Analysts really, REALLY want to be right, because the companies that employ them make money by convincing their customers to invest in their recommendations. Too many mistakes and the customers leave; and then the analysts get fired. That is why analysts are sometimes negative on a company that, within the industry, seems to have good prospects - because the analysts don't trust the company's statements.

Airline results are hard to predict. Thus, if you keep track, airline analysts don't have great job security. You see the same names, but they do a lot of job hopping.



I love long German words like 'Freundschaftsbezeigungen'.
User currently offline9252fly From Canada, joined Sep 2005, 1396 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (5 years 8 months 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 14452 times:



Quoting YVR1968 (Reply 8):
With the environment now, I would doubt that, things will probably only get worse. AC is going to have to make some serious decisions about grounding aircraft, cutting capacity etc..etc...like SQ, QF have been doing, among others.

AC seems to think that domestic demand will not be overly effected by looking at the summer schedule. I on the other hand feel predicting demand is like shifting sand,what you foresee now is likely to be different by the time the schedule takes effect on May 1st. Overall I expect cuts are coming and it may not be pretty.

Quoting YVR1968 (Reply 8):
They certainly did not get very good press around the Christmas period the way they dealt with the snow problems at YVR. So from a PR perspective they sure got creamed by the media. Customer service took a real beating with their skeleten crew structure.

AC have tried so hard to reduce their costs so as to be competitive with WS that they now have such a poor perception on customer service domestically that they will almost certainly continue to lose market share. The CEO now want's to change that,sorry to say,too little,too late.

Quoting YVR1968 (Reply 8):
Well, with companies around the world being bailed out by governments, I wouldn't be surprised if we have another bailout on the horizon. I cannot imagine the Canadian government allowing the carrier to go bye bye. But, with the billions pumped into the auto industry, I wonder how much cash will be left to continue bailing out companies... I mean, where do you draw the line.

My sense is that AC will not get any kind of bailout,rather expect that the government will lift the foriegn ownership limits from 25% to 49% to allow additional capitalization. They are also being hamstrung by their pension plan obligations and that may be where the federal government may step in to help,otherwise I'm afraid they're on their own.


User currently offlineSeemyseems From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2009, 969 posts, RR: 7
Reply 13, posted (5 years 8 months 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 13584 times:

So if AC do file for bankruptcy, will they halt operations, or will it be like UA, and carry on as normal?

I sure hope they don't! It would be a great loss without AC!  Sad



seemyseems
User currently offlineUnited1 From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 6003 posts, RR: 9
Reply 14, posted (5 years 8 months 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 13436 times:



Quoting Seemyseems (Reply 13):
So if AC do file for bankruptcy, will they halt operations, or will it be like UA, and carry on as normal?

They would more then likely file for CCA (Canada's version of Chapter 11 restructuring) just like they did a few years ago and carry on as normal just like UA/DL/NW/US/CO have all done in the past.



Semper Fi - PowerPoint makes us stupid.
User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 25626 posts, RR: 22
Reply 15, posted (5 years 8 months 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 13360 times:



Quoting 9252fly (Reply 12):
hey are also being hamstrung by their pension plan obligations and that may be where the federal government may step in to help

I think AC's CEO recently stated that if U.S. pension funding legislation applied in Canada, AC's cash reserves would be several hundred million $$ higher. I forget the exact amount but it was very large. Canadian pension plans are much safer than in the U.S. where many retired employees have had their pension benefits severly reduced following bankruptcies. I can't ever recall that happening in Canada due to the much stricter funding requirements.


User currently offlineConnies4ever From Canada, joined Feb 2006, 4066 posts, RR: 13
Reply 16, posted (5 years 8 months 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 13342 times:

AC lost a ton on fuel hedges (not unlike a lot of airlines, such as SQ, for example) and a fortune on foreign exchange, as the C$ dropped almost 20% last year. By declaring such a large 4th quarter loss they may be trying to package the bad news in such a way as to pre-empt wage demands from several of the unions as negotiations go forward this year. They are unlikely to get burned on either hedges or foreign exchange in 2009, at least to the extent they did last year.

The pension fund shortfall is possibly the most serious issue on the table right now, and I believe they have five years to make it up -- not unlike many Canadian companies with shortfalls. I think it's not unlikely that the Feds will play ball and relax the repayment period to ten years, which will basically give them a $100M positive cash flow boost.

It's also possible as previously indicated that the 25%^ foreign ownership rule may get relaxed to 49%. In that case I would not be surprised if LH up their ante in AC (I think about 3.56% right now).



Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
User currently offlineTangowhisky From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 931 posts, RR: 7
Reply 17, posted (5 years 8 months 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 12840 times:

Well........ now that Jazz, Aeroplan, and Air Canada Maintenance Services to most part have been stripped away, the company has just one thing to ride out the storm: Air Canada. It is too bad that Milton hollowed out a great company, stripped away all these assets, as well as winding down other businesses to make himself rich. Where is he now?


Only the paranoid survive
User currently offlinePlanenutz From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (5 years 8 months 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 12731 times:

I agree with WorldTraveller. Also, I wouldn't assign a lot of credibility to anything that UBS analysts are saying right now. They have been off the mark in many of their recent reports, and are under indictment in the USA for various below board activities.

User currently offlineMattRB From Canada, joined Apr 2005, 1624 posts, RR: 9
Reply 19, posted (5 years 8 months 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 12693 times:



Quoting YVRtoYYZ (Reply 10):
Doesn't AC have labour contracts to renew this year as well?

Yup. Every labour group will be in negotiations this year.

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 17):
It is too bad that Milton hollowed out a great company, stripped away all these assets, as well as winding down other businesses to make himself rich.

Yup - he's a self-serving SOB. And a rich one at that.

Quoting Tangowhisky (Reply 17):
Where is he now?

England. He also has a hand in D7 (Air Asia X) if memory serves.



Aviation is proof that given, the will, we have the capacity to achieve the impossible.
User currently offlineJoeCanuck From Canada, joined Dec 2005, 5476 posts, RR: 30
Reply 20, posted (5 years 8 months 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 12598 times:

Analysts have been so wrong about so many things in the past couple of years that they really don't have much in the way of credibility left. Not one of them was right about he price of oil, up or down, the banking crisis or the global economic meltdown.

They should be too embarrassed to do interviews, much less pretend they have anything approaching insight.



What the...?
User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 25626 posts, RR: 22
Reply 21, posted (5 years 8 months 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 12560 times:



Quoting Planenutz (Reply 18):
Also, I wouldn't assign a lot of credibility to anything that UBS analysts are saying right now. They have been off the mark in many of their recent reports, and are under indictment in the USA for various below board activities.

UBS is not under indictment in the USA.There was a risk it might happen but they have just agreed to a settlement involving payment of $780 million in fines and penalties. One individual UBS employee in the U.S. was indicted a few months ago for facilitating tax evasion by U.S. residents, and another U.S. employee previously pleaded guilty and was sentenced,but the bank itself wasn't indicted.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...GKznLpJF3zqvV4y_gUrRgpsbAD96EB5580


User currently offlineLongHauler From Canada, joined Mar 2004, 5046 posts, RR: 43
Reply 22, posted (5 years 8 months 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 12294 times:

AC had a $40M operating loss last year, that's all ... and has over $2B in assets right now.

That being said though, it is clear that it is the Defined Benefit pension plans that are the target of management, and they would like to dissolve them. But, just to bring things into perspective, the employees have paid over $1.5B into their pension plans over the last 5 years, while AC looks for ways not to fulfill their end of the contract.

Don't forget, with the sale of Jazz, and Aeroplan .... ACE has been able to extract over $2B in equity from Air Canada ... about the same amount employees gave in concessions with the last round of Bankruptcy Protection. Oddly enough, it's legal!



Never gonna grow up, never gonna slow down .... Barefoot Blue Jean Night
User currently offlineREALDEAL From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (5 years 8 months 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 12253 times:

join the queue AC !!!

There must be 100 legacy carriers out there who might not be around in 12 months time !!!

Think the landscape will look very different esp. in USA with this stupid bail out package, making things worse not better.


User currently offlineIrobertson From Canada, joined Apr 2006, 601 posts, RR: 3
Reply 24, posted (5 years 8 months 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 9034 times:

Is that 2 Billion in assets including aircraft like all those new 777s that replaced all the perfectly good A340s who's fuel consumption doesn't seem so bad now that fuel is back to normal prices?

When you have the country's only real legacy carrier constantly showing signs of collapse for years on end, it does nothing to regain the public's long term trust and good faith. It also seems to be having a lasting effect on their customer service; the F/As for the last several transatlantic crossings I've been on have been short, tired, curt, and generally apathetic about their jobs. It doesn't make me want to look to Air Canada first for my travel plans.


25 Wedgetail737 : Would the Canadian government allow AC to completely fall? That would be a catastrophe to Canada if Air Canada failed. I would think the Canadian gove
26 WildcatYXU : AFAIK it wouldn't be so bad even with high fuel costs. The 77W is far more efficient than the A343 when the cabins are full of pax and the belly is f
27 Pnwtraveler : This shows how people over react to some things and the fear of things spurr people into irrational behavior and that encourages the downward spiral o
28 Ikramerica : When creditors and unions act irrationally, there are times when it is necessary. And it helps set a new standard in the industry that other airlines
29 Tangowhisky : This all fit perfectly with Milton's self serving ambitions. If you want to see successful auto makers who are not whining, look at European and Japa
30 9252fly : Sometime ago I posted a comment suggesting that I thought AC had ordered too many B777 aircraft. It's not to say I predicted the meltdown,rather it w
31 Skywatcher : As an investor who got wiped out on AC stock during the last bankruptcy I ask one simple question. Why shouldn't investors have been rewarded with the
32 Tangowhisky : Here is the real message with all these bailouts. Savers are penalized and borrowers are bailed out meaning that savers are financing the borrowers,
33 REALDEAL : yes let's get every western govt to bail out every western airline that's about to fail. From the sound of things, Canada only needs 1 big airline. I
34 REALDEAL : Actually WS +G4 from USA could probably cover all AC routes except long haul that AC were making money on.(plenty of foreign carriers could fill in fo
35 9252fly : Nobody is questioning the premise that investors invest to profit from their investment. The problem lies in where you gut a company by spinning off
36 REALDEAL : because they all being paid way toooo much !!! Really to survive AC needs to cut all wages by a big chunk, lets say 25-50% or they could get rid of 2
37 JoePatroni : And put 30,000+ people out of work and essentially grind the entire country to a halt. This is your preference???
38 REALDEAL : Of course !!! Can't you see you can't bail out anyone, otherwise you disadvantage the efficient operators. By the way, hope you'll all learning to sp
39 MattRB : Yeah, because $12.50/hr is just "way toooo much !!!" Y'know, somehow, I doubt with an asinine response like that, that you're a company director. Are
40 FX1816 : Oh yeah don't you know that you should just be paid about 5 bucks an hour to work for an airlines???? Finally someone other than me notices this too.
41 REALDEAL : obviously if u work for AC then yes, they can't afford u anymore !!! ah yes !!! Obviously, u have no idea & want to ignore the recession & coming dep
42 JoePatroni : Yeah, I'd love to see Westjet fly from YYZ to HKG with their 737-700s. Actually, before I waste anymore of my time, can you please stop replying to t
43 MattRB : My sympathies to your employees - I can't fathom what it's like to work in a Dickensian sweatshop.
44 REALDEAL : last time I looked YYZ/HKG was longhaul !!! CX flies the route 1/2 empty (unless they give seats away). CX has much MUCH better inflight service than
45 MattRB : Let this be a lesson to all you parents out there. Don't leave your account logged in when you're not around - you'll never know what trouble your ki
46 Kiwiandrew :
47 JoePatroni : You clearly didn't detect my sarcasm. That's funny! AC's flights continue to have full loads on that flight. Hmmmm... WOW! Even if I did, how would y
48 REALDEAL : what employees ? All contractors workon percentage now from home & are all much better off, as earn as much as they are willing to work. Whole idea o
49 WorldTraveler : Of course, there will be those in YOW who will argue - against the roar of disapproval from their countrymen - that the real answer is to have Open S
50 MattRB : Too bad that that's not what I do on a daily basis for $12.50/hr. I work and I work hard. I pride myself on the job that I do and they way that I do
51 WildcatYXU : 12.50? From what I heard, in some positions you have to be several years with the company to earn that. My step niece applied for a gate agent's job;
52 MattRB : 2nd year F/T permanent station attendant wage.
53 Cws818 : And why, pray tell, do you think the Canadian (or any other !!!) government would find that acceptable? Tax liability isn't exactly something you can
54 Post contains links WildcatYXU : In my old country - Slovakia - that was a pretty common practice some time ago. Work as a contractor, pay your own taxes, pay your own social insuran
55 Viscount724 : If around 400 million Europeans in almost all EU member countries as diverse as Greece and Sweden, or Portugal and Poland, can agree to open borders,
56 YWG737LVR : My only question here is this, Why can WS consistently turn a profit, even in these trying times, while AC only turns losses? Could the fact that WS e
57 WildcatYXU : Who knows, lack of interest? Lack of will? Taxes? It would be interesting to open a topic about it in Non-Av just to see what A-net members think abo
58 MattRB : AC turned a profit last year. Even despite the fact that AC has obligations that WestJet doesn't and operates in a legal framework that no other airl
59 Tangowhisky : This is true for the auto sector. But I disagree your comment for the airlines. If airlines pay less and less for pilots, you will get lower and lowe
60 WildcatYXU : Talking of AC, the passenger numbers must have be really down. I just booked my ticket to YHZ for next week and I was surprised twice. First with the
61 CRJ 900 : well there's always the option of SWISSAIR/CROSSAIR=AC/JAZZ.... hey it could happen.
62 Gr8Circle : I happen to share the negative view about analysts....so many of them love to make doomsday predictions and end up being wrong most of the time.... M
63 Tangowhisky : I agree that most analysts are poor at most predictions. But making a call on the likelihood that a company faces a potential bankruptcy situation is
64 Yyz717 : Based on what measure? AC is unprofitable & it's share price has dipped 94% since its emergence from CCAA. By any measure, AC is among NA's worse car
65 Viscount724 : Many international markets permit multiple designation or are Open Skies or close to it (e.g. the recent Canada-EU Open Skies agreement). All carrier
66 Tangowhisky : Yeap, his wife is the daughter of the previous CEO Hollis Harris
67 9252fly : I'm shocked and surprised that it's not common knowledge. I'm starting to really appreciate how people with considerable wealth like to keep it in th
68 Pictues : Well the DB Pension plan was started by the Government and the company forced ALL employees to pay into it wether they wanted to or not, this was pri
69 Robsaw : No they didn't; you must be thinking about 2007. In 2008, AC reported an operating loss of $39M ($164M including cargo price-fixing legal proceedings
70 Threepoint : I understand you're posing a rhetorical question. For those that may legitimately wonder, it's because the US politicians, reacting to the will of ma
71 Viscount724 : I can't recall that ever being determined. Do you have a source for that? I thought they were all legally in the U.S. on various kinds of visas (stud
72 Kiwiandrew : I thought that the Swiss understood sarcasm , no ? I think perhaps you missed the 'cough , cough' comment at the end of the sentence you quoted
73 Post contains links Viscount724 : Thanks, I missed that (and I'm Canadian, not Swiss!) I thought he may have been confusing the 9/11 terrorists with the following story which did invo
74 Ikramerica : Drugs. Lots of drugs come across the northern border. And illegal chinese immigrants. We had a very porous border for many years, (and still do effec
75 Post contains links JoeCanuck : The states economy is to a large degree kept afloat on the backs of illegal immigrants. The border with Canada isn't an immigration problem with the
76 Manu : Viscount, you do understand that Canada is already consolidated? It was multiple colonies merged together, although not as diplomatically as Europe t
77 Connector4you : Shortness of cash may trigger some more spin-offs at Air Canada, Globe and Mail Feb 18, 2009 "The carrier may have to sell its ground-handling unit, v
78 Threepoint : There is so much I wish to say to contradict your statements here, but this thread is about AC and its potential bankruptcy. I'll simply say Ikrameri
79 9252fly : Just when I thought they had already sold everything off(burned the furniture),alas some good news!
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