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Performance Stats For US-China By US Cxrs  
User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (7 years 3 months 1 week 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 2785 times:

Average fare data is for 3Q08, LF is for July 08 - both are the most recent data sets from the DOT.

AA ORDPVG $895 65% LF
CO EWRPEK 758 76
DL ATLPVG 905 59
UA IADPEK 933 66
ORDPEK 969 71
ORDPVG 895 65
SFOPEK 996 66
SFOPVG 1175 65


4 replies: All unread, jump to last
User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 29484 posts, RR: 24
Reply 1, posted (7 years 3 months 1 week 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 2728 times:

I expect LF data for July and average fares for the 3rd quarter won't be very reflective of the overall annual numbers since July and most of the 3rd quarter coincides with the peak vacation period when high yield business traffic is minimal. And, even ignoring the onset of the global financial crisis, I believe overall international traffic to/from China was down significantly for much of the 3rd quarter due to the Beijing Summer Olympics in August and tightened visa restrictions etc. which deterred many people from travelling.

User currently offlineAznMadSci From United States of America, joined Dec 2007, 3782 posts, RR: 5
Reply 2, posted (7 years 3 months 1 week 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 2728 times:

I'll be curious how the numbers will look a year later when CO starts EWR-PVG.

The journey of life is not based on the accomplishments, but the experience.
User currently offlinePHXtoDCAtoMSP From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 299 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (7 years 3 months 1 week 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 2678 times:

Ranked for yield:

5. ORD-PVG UA (tie)
5. ORD-PVG AA (tie)

Ranked for RASM:

6. ORD-PVG UA (tie)
6. ORD-PVG AA (tie)

Comments: UA (no surprise) is by far the dominant force on US-China routes. The DL performance isn't too much of a surprise (and it was a fairly new route). Interesting that UA and AA had identical performance on ORD-PVG. I would have expected CO's performance on the route to be better considering they are the only serious player in the NYC-China market.

User currently offlineWorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (7 years 3 months 1 week 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 2550 times:

corrections on UA for ORDPVG. Average fare is $1175 and LF is 58%.
UA for SFOPVG is $996 and LF is 66%.

remember that there is a mix of aircraft and various configurations within those a/c. UA's LF for ORDPVG on their 744 translates into 202 passengers. The configurations for 777s is considerable different. CO reports 284 seats per flight which mean EWRPEK carried 217 pax/flt. On the other end, AA has 245 seats on its 77s which mean ORDPVG carried 186. DL's ATLPVG comes out to 193 pax per flight. UA EWRPEK was a 744 for 210 pax/flt.

So the actual range of passengers per flight is fairly consistent and between 190 and 220.

Also, IIRC, DL is the only carrier that started new China service in 2008. Given many said China couldn't work at all from ATL, it appears that DL's performance is well within the ballpark for other carriers, esp. considering other routes were already established.

It also is quite clear given these LF results why every carrier has pulled back on expansion for 2009 and beyond. The LFs are just not strong enough although average fares are still relatively strong compared to other similar length flights. LF data for the fall is not available but will undoubtedly show LFs will drop below 50% for multiple carriers.

Just for comparison, for the same month, HKG loads on CO and UA were still quite a bit higher - 70-90% for each route with UA reporting 85% LFs on ORD and SFOHKG, both of which used the 744. LAX was the weakest US carrier nonstop to HKG at 71%. CO was the best at 91% (on a 777).

[Edited 2009-02-19 05:59:30]

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