WorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 5, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 8716 times:
In each case, there are stronger and closer DL/NW hubs to the destination city than the way the markets have previously been structured. The benefits of the merger will come from lots of little changes like this that when added up create significant value.
What isn't being mentioned is the equipment changes and frequency changes on existing routes that are balancing out the cuts that are taking place on other routes.
Msntriathlete From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 159 posts, RR: 0 Reply 6, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 8549 times:
It surprises me that, with the discontinuation of GRB and ATW service to CVG, DL continues to operate MSN-CVG 2x daily. While it's nice to have a few more connection options, and sometimes a CVG connection is more convenient than the next-closest DTW connection, they really seem to duplicate each other.
Nwaesc From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 3359 posts, RR: 9 Reply 7, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 8538 times:
Quoting Msntriathlete (Reply 6): It surprises me that, with the discontinuation of GRB and ATW service to CVG, DL continues to operate MSN-CVG 2x daily. While it's nice to have a few more connection options, and sometimes a CVG connection is more convenient than the next-closest DTW connection, they really seem to duplicate each other.
I agree, but from all we've heard here, the DL flights to both CVG & ATL will be staying exactly as they are now...
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
MSNtriathlete From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 159 posts, RR: 0 Reply 8, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 8485 times:
Not only is ATL staying, but it's increasing from 1x to 2x a day. The new morning flight will offer a number of connections not previously available, such as the Caribbean flights on the outbound, and the Europe arrivals on the return. I can see ATL being beefed up, as it offers a lot that DTW and MSP do not, but CVG seems to duplicate things. No complaints on my part having more options, though!
One sad thing is this route, along with many other, were operated profitably in the days before the all RJ fleet. This route was perfect for the E120 and still would be if DL had them in the fleet, aside from SLC. A lot of the CVG would be well served by a E120, D328, or DH8. Oh well, I reckon the bean counters know that it is better to completely pull out of markets than to put the right airplane on it.
But as NW is strong in WI, it's very possible that DL will restore GRB-ATL (and add frequency to other routes, such as is happening in MSN) in the future. ATW-CVG was dropped as DL continues to "right-size" CVG.
Hypocrisy: "US airlines should only buy Boeing... BTW, check out my new Hyundai!"
CompensateMe From United States of America, joined Jan 2009, 904 posts, RR: 0 Reply 14, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 8056 times:
Quoting 727forever (Reply 12): One sad thing is this route, along with many other, were operated profitably in the days before the all RJ fleet. This route was perfect for the E120 and still would be if DL had them in the fleet, aside from SLC. A lot of the CVG would be well served by a E120, D328, or DH8. Oh well, I reckon the bean counters know that it is better to completely pull out of markets than to put the right airplane on it.
O/D between CVG/ATW is virtually nonexistent -- this route exists predominately to feed the CVG hub. Given that DL now operates much larger hubs at MSP & DTW, doesn't it make more sense to route traffic through there? DL's made the decision to downsize CVG, focusing on the local business market and feeding the hub through traditional DL strongholds.
Hypocrisy: "US airlines should only buy Boeing... BTW, check out my new Hyundai!"
Jetlanta From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 3035 posts, RR: 36 Reply 18, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 7054 times:
Quoting Enilria (Reply 16): I'm not sure that is strictly the strategy. It does appear SLC is being built up. I wonder if that will really succeed. To me, SLC is just like CVG but lower yield.
There is a huge difference between CVG and SLC. CVG is one of several hubs in the region it is surrounded by low-fare airports, and has easy road access to many major destinations. SLC is one of only two true hubs west of Denver and is extremely isolated, therefore having a captive air market.
SLC is already successful. This minor build-up isn't going to change that one way or the other.
Enilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 6575 posts, RR: 13 Reply 19, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 6831 times:
Quoting SESGDL (Reply 17): SLC has about double the O&D that CVG has, that makes a huge difference.
If you had WN in CVG it would be double too, but I don't think DL wants WN in CVG.
If you carry that argument out it implies that Delta would do better in CVG if Southwest flew there because the market would be bigger (and the yields lower). I don't think you'll find anyone in power at Delta that believes that, even though it is plausible.
Quoting SESGDL (Reply 17): DL also has nothing that can serve many of the markets SLC serves, whereas CVG has DTW right there.
Quoting Jetlanta (Reply 18): SLC is one of only two true hubs west of Denver and is extremely isolated, therefore having a captive air market.
It is very true that SLC is geographically isolated as a hub and that drives air traffic. It is also true that lower fares brought by WN have expanded the market. DEN is a lot bigger market than SLC and only F9 (recently) is making any money there. I think SLC is a much weaker market than DEN and WN could make DL very miserable in SLC if they wanted to.
By that I mean that SLC's geographic isolation means that the top 10 markets make up 37% of all O&D traffic while in CVG it's only 26%. That means WN can add SLC-SFO/SAN (for example) and do a lot of damage to SLC's financial performance.
That may be their hold card as they expand into strong DL/NW markets like MSP/BOS/LGA.
Jetlanta From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 3035 posts, RR: 36 Reply 24, posted (4 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 6330 times:
Quoting Enilria (Reply 19): By that I mean that SLC's geographic isolation means that the top 10 markets make up 37% of all O&D traffic while in CVG it's only 26%. That means WN can add SLC-SFO/SAN (for example) and do a lot of damage to SLC's financial performance.
True, but the problem with this scenario is that WN doesn't do well at all in SLC and never has. They've shown no interest in expanding at SLC even in good times, with lots of new airplanes coming in. I wouldn't expect them to try it now.
25 Enilria: Thanks! I agree that they probably don't make much in SLC, but I think that is pretty typical of their OA (other airline) hub performance. I'm just s
26 JohnJ: Not new service per se, but I notice in Delta's current online schedule they're putting a 757 on one of the MEM-ATL frequencies - the first time in ma
27 Cubsrule: It seems like there's quite a range of performance in other airlines' hubs; DTW--where they've never done well-- might be one extreme, and STL (if it
28 Rampguy: Same goes for other markets. IND-CVG O/D is non-existient as well. I'd say 99% of travelers are connecting pax, yet DL keeps this short hop between I
29 Jetlanta: I hear what you are saying, but also realize that they aren't going to pick a fight with Delta, which has over $6B in cash, just to make a point. Les
30 Nwaesc: I could've sworn the thread title mentioned NW/DL... I'll get my coat. Carry on.
31 Mariner: Speaking of which, I believe DL/NW each have three gates at DEN. Will they retain all six, or is there "synergy"? mariner
32 Cubsrule: Maybe PHL isn't a great example, then. But look at STL back when TW was alive and kicking; in the summer of 1999, for instance, WN had about 90 weekd
33 Jetlanta: True, but it was TWA, after all. WN doesn't even do well in STL against AA RJ's at this point.
34 Enilria: As others have said it is pretty well established that WN has done pretty badly in PHL. They did announce MSP. That seems like picking a fight. LGA a
35 Cubsrule: On what routes is WN doing poorly against AA RJs? Certainly not DEN, CMH, BWI, or MCI...
36 CompensateMe: Actually, AA avoids most WN markets from STL at this point. When I glanced at OAG last week, AA was planning on operating to 38 markets with 108 week
37 Atrude777: and CLE, DAL (when AA had RJ STL-DAL) and Houston, when AA flew STL-IAH on RJ's... I bet other RJ routes, like OKC, TUL WN does better than AA does!
38 Cubsrule: That cuts both ways, though. Look at STL-LAX, for instance. AA ran WN off of that route. AA was at about 155 daily departures (~55 mainline and 100 C
39 Jetlanta: One market is not picking a fight. I should clarify. What I meant was that WN has not exactly found an enormous amount of overall success at STL, des
40 Enilria: I'm sure Delta doesn't take WN's entry into MSP as lightly as you do.
41 Jetlanta: I'm not taking it lightly, just making the point that WN isn't doing it to go after Delta. And I think Delta's competitive response is exactly the re
42 Cubsrule: I see your point, but I don't see what you expect out of WN. If the 80 flights that they had lost money, they'd reduce the size of the operation. Cle
43 Jetlanta: The thing is, they have 70 flights a day at STL, not 80. And if they used to have 90, as was mentioned here earlier, then they've reduced the operati
44 Cubsrule: It isn't. OTOH, the remaining flights are not a mark of DTW-type failure.
45 Jetlanta: Absolutely. I think we don't really disagree at all.
46 Burnsie28: I took a CR9 on a two hour flight, granted i was in FC both ways, but it still was fine, I flew a CR7 on ORD-COS wasn't bad, but for that one I got u
47 Enilria: Why WN ---used to avoid--- these sort of excursions. WN's new strategy appears to be to attack everyone at once and see what happens. I tend to think
48 Cubsrule: That's one reading of it. Another is that they have to grow and these are the only places left to grow. Why they pick certain hubs and not others (MS
49 Enilria: They aren't growing, so they don't have to open *any* stations. They are doing all of this by rearranging the deck chairs. Great point on CVG. The ol
50 Cubsrule: I, too, got caught thinking of the "old WN." I think the point is the same, though. They have to maintain a certain network size, and if there's fat
51 Jetlanta: But they do have to grow their revenues...thats why they are picking up LGA, BOS and MSP. Because the first 10 flights at each of those are more valu
52 Cubsrule: Absolutely right. The interesting question to me is what changed on the revenue side. More revenue (or, as you say, big league revenue) is nice regar
53 PVD757: I think its simply a way for WN to strengthen their entire network. The addition of these big markets will make the existing (and in some cases, small
54 Jetlanta: Exactly. Yeah, that is also about right. These incursions have far more to do with improving their current network, than some grand scheme to dominat
55 Enilria: I don't think DL will let them make more money in MSP than they made in whatever they pulled it from. If you are DL and you let WN make money in MSP,
56 MOBflyer: I concur. I take this a bit further, and think that its actually part of a long term plan that will eventually involve smaller markets for WN. The pr
57 Jetlanta: They'll eventually do ATL, I'm sure. But I think ATL is the worst of all worlds for them. Not only do you have Delta at the dominating the top end of
58 IgneousRocks: Well to reiterate what others already said...its about SWA giving their customers in Corpus Christi, Tampa, Providence, and elsewhere access to Atlan
59 Cubsrule: How much control will DL have? If WN isn't pursuing local traffic-- and it's clear that they're doing so much less than they historically have-- how
60 Jetlanta: You really think that WN connecting traffic from CRP is going to hurt Delta? Or do you imagine they are going to fly CRP-ATL nonstop? Do you really t
61 Burnsie28: They currently have 33 daily flights, it would have been 34 had IND not been dropped, though I could see the possibility of the two CVG flights movin
62 Mariner: Comes the question of whether Southwest is actually "going after" anyone. As equally, a lot of people thought - and still think - they're weren't "go
63 WorldTraveler: I don't think you are naive and I agree with you but WN does know the difference between UA and US on the one hand and the rest of the network carrie
64 Jetlanta: Find the quote where WN said that one of the reasons was the merger Burnsie. You won't, because it isn't... No, you are correct. They will AVOID some
65 Mariner: I agree, I think they are extremely targeted and acutely aware of what they are doing in relationship to the competition. I don't think DEN was any a
66 IgneousRocks: My mistake. I forgot that Delta couldn't make money flying into CRP with CRJs plundering people's wallets with $700 walk up fares. I'm sure SWA's CRP
67 Jetlanta: I'm not disputing that Delta yields will drop to CRP and, of course, traffic will increase. My point is that the true effect on Delta is peanuts. CRP
68 Enilria: It's not possible to make money only carrying connect and thru traffic. There is an amount of capacity DL can put on MDW-MSP that will make WN unprof
69 Cubsrule: I think WN must be planning on it. IIRC, FL never had a month with more than a 30% local load factor. WN is going to have something like twice as man
70 Mariner: Does it matter? MDW-MSP is one route in the system, they can surely carry it for as long as they want. They may have to cut back on a couple more "un
71 FlyPNS1: Sure it is, but WN is no Reno Air. WN's going to continue along with their plan and I don't expect they'll get in some big tit for tat war. WN will h
72 Cubsrule: I don't think so. Mr. Kelly is not stupid. He knows how little local traffic FL got, and he probably knows that WN can do somewhat better. In short,
73 Mariner: I think it goes deeper than MSP. Mr Kelly owns the change of strategy at Southwest - the move into these several legacy hubs and thus his legacy is o
74 Enilria: Well, of course you can drive down the local fare down far enough with all that capacity to fill the plane up with $29 fares, but that doesn't come c