Cubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 21776 posts, RR: 19 Reply 5, posted (4 years 9 months 2 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 10736 times:
Quoting C010T3 (Reply 2): Oh, I forgot. DL proposes to fly the route with a 757.
...which would, I believe, make it the second-longest 752 route ever operated in scheduled service (3623 nm). BSB is pretty high too (~1000 meters IIRC), so it'll be interesting to see what, if any restrictions the 752 takes. I do think that the 752 is the right plane for this route, so we'll see if the revenue is there.
Do you have the docket number? I can't find the application (regulations.gov sucks )
[Edited 2009-02-24 13:37:34]
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
MaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 16493 posts, RR: 48 Reply 11, posted (4 years 9 months 2 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 10527 times:
I see the planning by 8-ball continues at ATL. At least the market size is 50% bigger than MAO at 1.5 PDEW , but with a 757 and a longer stage length is going to be a heck of a lot more expensive to run.
Hardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 51 Reply 12, posted (4 years 9 months 2 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 10511 times:
Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 11): I see the planning by 8-ball continues at ATL. At least the market size is 50% bigger than MAO at 1.5 PDEW , but with a 757 and a longer stage length is going to be a heck of a lot more expensive to run.
When AA and/or TAM start to opeate MIA-BSB (as is the case of MIA-MAO) DL will be the weaker link again.
Cubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 21776 posts, RR: 19 Reply 13, posted (4 years 9 months 2 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 10450 times:
Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 12): When AA and/or TAM start to opeate MIA-BSB (as is the case of MIA-MAO) DL will be the weaker link again.
I wonder whether there's an advantage to being the first one in the market. To MIA, probably not, but perhaps there is for passengers not traveling to MIA... Of course, maybe the number of passengers not traveling to MIA is so small that it's irrelevant.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
WorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 14, posted (4 years 9 months 2 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 10402 times:
A PW 2037 would have a MTOW of approx 245K lb from a 3500 ft runway. Full pax and bags plus fuel for that stage length still does not reach 245K so there should be no effective restrictions.
Of course there will be those of you who want to say that DL is guessing at routes but I'll remind you once again that the 2008 N/NE awards allow the routes to be moved. AA and DL as the only applicants for those awards agreed to allow them to be moved as did the DOT.
As for MAO, I have long said that MAO was the most cost effective way for DL to obtain 2008 N/NE frequencies and allow for the frequencies to be moved if the markets did not mature.
Regardless, DL's move is perfectly legal and will allow DL to move into another region of Brazil, one that will likely yield stronger results. But again, DL is still free to move its N/NE 2008 frequencies to most all airports in Brazil outside of SAO and RIO.
Cubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 21776 posts, RR: 19 Reply 15, posted (4 years 9 months 2 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 10384 times:
Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 14): A PW 2037 would have a MTOW of approx 245K lb from a 3500 ft runway. Full pax and bags plus fuel for that stage length still does not reach 245K so there should be no effective restrictions.
Where are you getting the 3500 feet from?
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
WorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 19, posted (4 years 9 months 2 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 10239 times:
Quoting C010T3 (Reply 17): Technically, yes, since the only long-haul capable airports in the South and Southeast not included in these frequencies, besides GIG and GRU, are CFB and VCP.
There are other airports in the N/NE as well as CNF and POA and CWB that are permitted under the bilateral. DL could choose to fly nonstop to some of those cities from the US and then stop elsewhere so they still could receive service.
WorldTraveler From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 24, posted (4 years 9 months 2 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 9887 times:
Can we confirm whether DL is actually changing the allocation of its existing frequencies or applying for new service? The assumption has been made here that DL is reallocating but I haven't seen anything documented that shows that DL is dropping any of its existing routes or frequencies.
25 C010T3: They're requesting exemption to BSB in order to use three of their ten allocated frequencies. They only have authority to fly to REC, FOR, CNF and MA
26 CokePopper: interesting. On DeltaNet they are stating " Delta seeks to increase destinations to Brazil" and also state: "' Delta offers flights to Brazil from At
27 Incitatus: But hey, so what if Delta is "guessing". All the power to them if they are willing to test new markets in the expectation of creating traffic flows t
28 LipeGIG: Well, such a nice move but lets see if they got it, which in my view will represent DL giving up ATL-MAO in favor of ATL-BSB. I'm sure a 3x weekly fli
29 C010T3: I'm sorry, could explain what you mean a little better??
30 Tonytifao: That is great news for Delta and Brazil
31 Mercure1: The balanced field rwy rqrd for 255k MTOW at ISA+19 at 3500'msl is apprx 9700ft rwy. So BSB should be fine, from a MTOW perspective.
32 LipeGIG: If they instead of asking for a 2nd flight to GIG to use the unrestricted frequencies decided to ask for a service ATL-BSB, would be better.
33 Incitatus: I have a very reasonable theory: The MAO frequencies are not doing well, so if DL applied for new frequencies, it would still have a problem at hand,
34 C010T3: They would still not get it, since the whole purpose of the proceeding was to set dates in order to avoid advantage to any carrier. If the other carr
35 AwysBSB: DL seems to be unsure with that application, since 752s in thrice weekly services is quite below BSB market capacity. According to the schedule that f
36 AF086: After the MAO fiasco and the economical downturn I wouldn't expect DL to act any different in an unproven market.
37 C010T3: I think DL could fly daily to BSB, but they wouldn't reduce frequencies to the NE.
38 Cmtehori: In my opinion BSB will do very well, specially because the flight can be loaded with connections from many cities in Brazil, like GIG and GRU, and unl
39 AwysBSB: I am sure as of 2010 first quarter ATL-BSB will be ranked among their routes with lowest demand oscillation and with best load factor. I hope they do
40 LipeGIG: AwysBSB the fact is that all depends upon the timing of the flight. If DL will offer BSB-ATL daylight 3x weekly you can't expect the flight to compet
41 AwysBSB: Hello, LipeGIG! It is not only ATL-BSB that has such a schedule dependence, but many other international routes out of ATL, since most of the cities a
42 Incitatus: Have you given some thought to this: People often are too optimistic about the prospect of new air service in their home city or their home country.
43 2travel2know: If DL doesn't have their B757 that tied-up, best schedule for an ATL-BSB would be red-eyes both ways, keeping that aircraft on BSB tarmac until the cr
44 AwysBSB: Incitatus, thanks for your note! My comment is not about a mere optimism, since Brasilia is really missing nonstop services to the US. The same way t
45 Mcoflyer: BSB's runways are both 10,100ft+ in length so I imagine there wouldn't be any penalities. KH
46 MaverickM11: They have a gazillion 757s, and it'd be better to put one on ATLBSB than, say, ATLFLL, particularly since I assume ATLBSB doesn't require ETOPS.
47 WorldTraveler: What data do you have that says that DL's GRU and GIG operations are any more costly than any other carriers? I would argue that DL's costs in Brazil
48 Incitatus: Panrotas is stating that a DL person in Brazil told them the BSB frequencies come 2 out of ATL-MAO and 1 from Brazil's Northeast. Together with the bi
49 GSPSPOT: I never knew there was such demand from the U.S. to so many places in Brazil....
50 C010T3: Trust me. Panrotas doesn't know anything. They even made the mistake of stating that DL still have 11 frequencies, 3 for BSB and another 8 for a new
51 C010T3: With almost 26 daily flights between both countries, there is demand from places you would never imagine.
52 AwysBSB: I do not have data to compare ground expenses of any carrier. I just mentioned that DL's structures in GRU and GIG need to be more used to get more c
53 C010T3: How will a future structure at BSB be more cost effective?
54 WorldTraveler: Every carrier needs to be as cost effective as possible but that doesn't mean they add service that doesn't generate beneficial revenues. The only co
55 Cubsrule: If anything, successful flights to other destinations REDUCE the (fixed) costs at GRU and GIG because a lot of a carrier's expenses in a country like
56 AwysBSB: Let me make my point of view clearer. One of the main reasons for airlines increase capacity to one destination instead of adding new destinations is
57 C010T3: But that doesn't have anything to do with cost effectiveness. It is just extra revenue.
58 AwysBSB: Are you sure of that? For an airline manages its operations it needs relate the inputs (or costs) of a base with the extra revenue created.
59 Cubsrule: ...unless the BSB frequencies wouldn't otherwise be used. Then, those flights do reduce (some) costs of the GRU and GIG flights.
60 C010T3: Let's solve the mess. One thing is to be cost-effective in terms of the flight itself. Perhaps operating with a 752 is more cost-effective, since a 7
61 AwysBSB: When I leveled the advantages between ATL-BSB and ATL-GRU I was considering the total cost of each operation (which is the expenses of the flight its
62 WorldTraveler: Your clarification is helpful. I understand your point. The primary objective right now for DL and AA in Brazil is to expand beyond the traditional G
63 C010T3: Yes, I agree. When it comes to airlines, we have more variables than in other industries, so the outcome is really not the most predictable.
64 Incitatus: I am going to offer a slightly different interpretation in an effort not to see history rewritten. Delta's original application (DOT-OST-2008-0227) w
65 WorldTraveler: Given that the majority of DL's frequencies requested were for MAO service, I'm not sure why what I have said about the strategic nature of DL's freq
66 C010T3: It makes sense, though I do see a certain degree of collusion between AA and DL. First, they blocked a new entrant together and devided up the freque
67 Incitatus: Yes, DL is doing something no carrier is doing. The fifth public version of non-GIG/GRU services for DL in Brazil is coming out two months after Delt
68 C010T3: It would have taken a bit longer if NK hadn't withdrawn its application this year. With what evidence?
69 WorldTraveler: How did they block anyone from entering the process? Every other airline was free to submit applications but did not. While you may find it enjoyable
70 C010T3: By not stepping on to each other's toes. DL went at first for MAO, FOR and CNF, while AA went for SSA-REC and CNF. Why would DL let AA go for the cit
71 Cubsrule: Because the frequencies are portable? For DL (or whoever was second-acting), covering the cities that the other one didn't cover was probably the bes
72 C010T3: So, you do agree that they were colluding. DL had the upper hand over AA, since they're a smaller competitor in Brazil, but DL didn't want to commit
73 Cubsrule: No. Self-interested behavior that looks like collusion is not collusion. If I run a gas station and the guy across the street raises his price by 5 c
74 WorldTraveler: Then why is AA changing its SSA-REC flight to 757s? Only 3, sometimes 4, of the frequencies will operate with widebody aircraft after this summer. Ap
75 C010T3: Yes, but how would they know each other's to be proposed destinations beforehand?
76 C010T3: No, I didn't mean that. I only meant that if DL had applied for daily ATL-SSA-REC-ATL with a 752 while AA applied for daily MIA-SSA-REC-MIA with a 76
77 WorldTraveler: All things being equal, that might be true. But ATL is not MIA and therefore offers different traffic flows. AA is not DL and each has mertis based o
78 Incitatus: I don't think Delta has broken any rule. I wouldn't expect that Delta be challenged. They can move frequencies as they wish. And if you ask me, all p
79 Cubsrule: DL probably guessed that AA would apply for the largest markets-- and AA did. Neither of us knows if that's what happened, but it's just as likely as
80 C010T3: The DOT has granted the exemption authority.
81 LipeGIG: Hope they got good results, but a new base with 3x weekly on the current scenario sounds not good.