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Chances Of EK Venturing Further Beyond Australia?  
User currently offlineVfw614 From Germany, joined Dec 2001, 4062 posts, RR: 5
Posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 4010 times:

With Emirates ramping up capacity further to BNE, MEL and SYD, I was wondering if they will find ways to avoid downtime for those additional flights in Australia.

Currently 4 of the flights to Australian destinations continue to New Zealand, 3 to AKL and 1 to CHC. If I am not mistaken, we now have 8 daily flights by Emirates to the Eastern Australian seashore (3 MEL, 3 SYD, 2 BNE), which means 4 of the aircraft are now turned around in Australia. In order to arrive in DXB in time for the hub waves, I guess this means a lot of down-time as turning around those flights within 3-4 hours of arrival would result in a loss of connecting traffic at DXB.

When EK first built up routes to Australia, they came up with the rather good idea of tagging on trans-tasman flights. I guess that there is a certain limit how many EK flights the trans-tasman market can accommodate, not only capacity-wise, but also because Emirates is somewhat limited in offering competitive scheduling with flights operating as tag-ons. Not sure, but maybe there is enough demand at CHC to replace the B777-300 with two A340-500s calling at two different Australian cities, but I doubt the market is there for anything bigger. AKL probably is well-served with three daily flights including an A380. All other NZ airports do not have sufficient potential or cannot accomodate (WLG) EK.

So - do you see any other potential market EK could exploit using SYD or BNE as the stepping stone (leaving issues such as traffic rights aside)? Places like Fiji, New Caledonia, Tonga, Vanuatu? I am not talking about daily flights, but two or three flights a week with the smallest fleet member (A340-500) mainly catering for leisure-oriented pax from down under and Europe plus some VFR from Australia. I know that the market is rather small, but such flights would also provide some nice cargo capacity for those markets. Also Emirates is more leisure-oriented than many other flag carrieres, given its services to many of the islands in the Indian ocean.


As we are at it - do you see any potential for further operations in Australia? Another way to keep the aircraft busier than having them sat on the ground at BNE, MEL or SYD would be to operate triangular flights via, e.g. ADL from MEL or CNS from BNE. While triangular flights are, of course, not popular with pax, this problem can be somewhat alleviated by operating the route in one direction on certain days and in the other on the rest. Or would EK be interested to operate dedicated ADL and/or CNS flights (the latter I doubt). What is, btw, the problem with ADL - no traffic rights?

27 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineANstar From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2003, 5316 posts, RR: 7
Reply 1, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 3935 times:

I owuld have thought ADL would be on the list at some point - problem is I suspect anything other than a an A330-200 (which wouldnt have the range) would be unprofitable.

User currently offlineVfw614 From Germany, joined Dec 2001, 4062 posts, RR: 5
Reply 2, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 3886 times:



Quoting ANstar (Reply 1):
I owuld have thought ADL would be on the list at some point - problem is I suspect anything other than a an A330-200 (which wouldnt have the range) would be unprofitable.

Do you think so? If BNE and PER can sustain two daily flights and CHC one 777-300, why shouldn't ADL be able to fill a, say, A340-500 three or four times a week? There is Cathay, Singapore and Malaysian serving ADL, which is the typical complement for airports served by Emirates as well in the region. Although I agree that the overall pax figure for the three is not exactly breathtaking at approx. 420.000 pax.


User currently offlineDJMEL From Australia, joined Oct 2008, 141 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 3826 times:

ADL will be served with an A330-200 or possibly the A340-300 and probably via SIN or BKK,if they were to do it n/s it would be 777-300ER three or four times a week.
NAN could be a tag on service from either BNE or MEL, certainly would need to be some scheduling adjustment so the aircraft would meet hubbing requirements in DXB.

HNL from BNE or SYD

Pre-diction for 2010 is that EK will join the ranks of the Round the World Carriers and link LAX and AKL to complete there gap this flight will of course connect with AKL - BNE/SYD/MEL bound services or vice - versa.


User currently offlineMadameConcorde From San Marino, joined Feb 2007, 10930 posts, RR: 37
Reply 4, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 3758 times:

Where would EK plan to go past Australia?

The South Pacific? Tahiti? Fiji? Western Samoa? New Caledonia? I doubt they would get traffic rights to these places.

The North Pacific? Honolulu? Guam? There again I am not sure if they would be successful getting authorized.

What say you? Any chance we see EK aircrafts at PPT and/or HNL?  airplane   Confused



There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
User currently offlineVfw614 From Germany, joined Dec 2001, 4062 posts, RR: 5
Reply 5, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 3713 times:

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 4):
Where would EK plan to go past Australia?

My scenario is that they try to find work for the aircraft that otherwise sit idle on the ground for 12 or so hours at BNE, SYD and MEL. Until recently, they were able to keep most of the aircraft serving Australia busy by flying to NZ. With the recent addition of flights to BNE and MEL (also SYD?), they have more aircraft doing nohing for the better half of each day in Australia.

That said, what one could reasonably look at are destinations up to 4 hours away from Australia. If the flight would be longer, it would not be able to return to MEL, SYD or BNE for an evening departure to DXB. That perimeter rules out a lot of destinations in the South Pacific and stuff like HNL (unless EK would turn it from tag-ons into a much more complex operation).

As for traffic rights - I don't know. Trans-tasman services are provided by, e.g., Emirates, LAN or Aerolineas, so this seems to be a reasonably liberal market. I suppose New Caledonia would be difficult as it would involve the French government. For the smaller island within the perimeter, there is little they have to lose with the exception maybe of Air Pacific at Fiji.

As said above, I am not talking about dumping an A380-800 on small Pacific islands on a daily basis. The A340-500 has 256 seats, which is just 70 or so seats more than a Boeing 737-800 of PacificBlue - but a lot of cargo capacity. Maybe three flights a week?

[Edited 2009-03-02 04:47:31]

User currently offlineEK413 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 5011 posts, RR: 4
Reply 6, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 3696 times:



Quoting Vfw614 (Thread starter):
As we are at it - do you see any potential for further operations in Australia? Another way to keep the aircraft busier than having them sat on the ground at BNE, MEL or SYD would be to operate triangular flights via, e.g. ADL from MEL or CNS from BNE. While triangular flights are, of course, not popular with pax, this problem can be somewhat alleviated by operating the route in one direction on certain days and in the other on the rest. Or would EK be interested to operate dedicated ADL and/or CNS flights (the latter I doubt). What is, btw, the problem with ADL - no traffic rights?

Why in the world would the Australian government hand over more rights so that EK can further bruise the national carriers QF,JQ and DJ......? Screw EK and their ambitions to expand into markets which can not sustain 1 carrier let alone...
EK's mission from the beginning is to drive all the established carriers out of business, no doubt about it, I understand the traveling public receive a better product,inflight entertainment on EK services however what about the risk passengers are being put at with competing carriers cutting cost so that they can remain competitive...
EK stick to you own turf...

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 4):
Where would EK plan to go past Australia?

The only route I recall EK would like to venture is AKL-LAX, AKL-SFO... This way pax have the choice of flying EK either East or West bound via DXB...

EK413



Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
User currently offlineVfw614 From Germany, joined Dec 2001, 4062 posts, RR: 5
Reply 7, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 3662 times:

Well, EK succesfully negotiated traffic rights across the Tasman, and this apparently has happened for some reason despite all protests by Qantas. One can think of quite a few reasons:

- Emirates prevents an anti-competitive monopoly of Australian carriers in the South Pacific and thus makes travel to Australia more affordable, at the benefit of the local economy (competition watchdogs are not there to protect monopolies, but to keep the economy going)
- Emirates offers cargo capacity between Australia and destinations that local carriers simply do not offer with their narrow-body operations.
- most destinations we would be looking at, unlike flights to NZ, not exactly Qantas' main area of concern.
- additional EK flights mean additional revenue for the Australian economy, particularly as Emirates opens up a lot of markets which Qantas has difficulties serving because of its network structure.


User currently offlineVfw614 From Germany, joined Dec 2001, 4062 posts, RR: 5
Reply 8, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 3579 times:

Here is an interesting paper in which a professor from NZ discusses the potential of Fiji becoming a mini-hub for airlines such as Emirates or Singapore:

http://www.aerlines.nl/issue_summer_...mer2008_Kissling_Fiji_aviation.pdf

Such a perspective certainly gives some leverage in negotiations and could be a bargaining chip.


User currently offlineKiwiandrew From New Zealand, joined Jun 2005, 8626 posts, RR: 13
Reply 9, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 3536 times:
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Quoting Vfw614 (Reply 8):

Here is an interesting paper in which a professor from NZ discusses the potential of Fiji becoming a mini-hub for airlines such as Emirates or Singapore:

http://www.aerlines.nl/issue_summer_...mer2008_Kissling_Fiji_aviation.pdf

Such a perspective certainly gives some leverage in negotiations and could be a bargaining chip.

His credibility has to be in doubt when he claims on the second page

EK and SQ have used the relative proximity of New Zealand ,some three hours away , to operate late night transTasman services that leave before the evening curfew to cross to New Zealand and then return in the morning as the curfew is lifted   

EKs transTasman sectors are all daylight and SQ has not operated pax services trans Tasman since the days of the 707 , furthermore , when they did they were also daylight services . If he can make such a basic error of fact what else is wrong in his paper ?

edited to add: I note also that two of the three sources cited in his endnotes are from his own previous work - does that seem somewhat dubious scholarship to anyone else ?

[Edited 2009-03-02 06:22:04]


Moderation in all things ... including moderation ;-)
User currently offlineFly2CHC From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 3 days ago) and read 3236 times:



Quoting EK413 (Reply 6):
Why in the world would the Australian government hand over more rights so that EK can further bruise the national carriers QF,JQ and DJ......?

Why do SIN/BKK/HKG hand over unlimited rights? QF and BA certainly do not have any problem in using them effectively.


[quote=EK413,reply=6]EK's mission from the beginning is to drive all the established carriers out of business,

Nope. It is to create a globally connected airline not dependent on any alliances.

Quoting Kiwiandrew (Reply 9):
seem somewhat dubious scholarship to anyone else ?

He's actually a very well respected Professor, and is one of the leading academics internationally in aviation development.


User currently offlineKiwiandrew From New Zealand, joined Jun 2005, 8626 posts, RR: 13
Reply 11, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 3 days ago) and read 3225 times:
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Quoting Fly2CHC (Reply 10):
He's actually a very well respected Professor, and is one of the leading academics internationally in aviation development.

all the more troubling then that his paper contains such basic errors as claiming that EK and SQ operate overnight transTasman sectors to avoid the SYD curfew



Moderation in all things ... including moderation ;-)
User currently offlineVfw614 From Germany, joined Dec 2001, 4062 posts, RR: 5
Reply 12, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 3149 times:

Quoting Kiwiandrew (Reply 11):
all the more troubling then that his paper contains such basic errors as claiming that EK and SQ operate overnight transTasman sectors to avoid the SYD curfew

While I agree that this is a bit awkward, from the point of view of his paper it does not really make a difference for what reason the aircraft sits idle on the ground. He is also not building his whole reasoning around "via SYD"-flights, but merely illustrating that long-haul flights to Australia typically have longish turn-around times and some airlines have come up with some ideas how to keep the aircraft busy locally. This more than anything has to do with the preferred time-window for westbound flights from Asia to Europe and not so much with the SYD curfew. He should have been more careful with his example, I agree, but don't forget he is an economist, so he thinks more in theoretic models than aircraft, registrations and flight numbers.

[Edited 2009-03-02 22:39:21]

User currently offlineKiwiandrew From New Zealand, joined Jun 2005, 8626 posts, RR: 13
Reply 13, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 3136 times:
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Quoting Vfw614 (Reply 12):
While I agree that this is a bit awkward, from the point of his paper it does not really make a difference for what reason the aircraft sits idle on the ground.

I agree that he makes some interesting points regarding utilisation , and even more so on the negative impacts for tourism of the ongoing political instability in Fiji , but I cant help wondering what his reaction would be if one of his students submitted work with such glaring factual errors



Moderation in all things ... including moderation ;-)
User currently offlineGemuser From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 5817 posts, RR: 6
Reply 14, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3009 times:



Quoting Vfw614 (Reply 7):
Well, EK succesfully negotiated traffic rights across the Tasman, and this apparently has happened for some reason despite all protests by Qantas

EK was granted Trans Tasman traffic rights, with concurrence by QF & NZ for one reason and one reason only. It was granted at the time QF & NZ were pushing their TT cooperation scheme and they and both the Oz & NZ governments expected that approval would be granted, having EK on the run was supposed to ease monopoly worries. Fortunately it didn't and the plan was not approved, but neither government was blantant enough to pull EKs TT rights.

Gemuser



DC23468910;B72172273373G73873H74374475275376377L77W;A319 320321332333343;BAe146;C402;DHC6;F27;L188;MD80MD85
User currently offlineVfw614 From Germany, joined Dec 2001, 4062 posts, RR: 5
Reply 15, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 2984 times:

Are EK's TT-rights capped in any way - frequency-wise, capacity-wise, destination-wise? I am wondering as they have ramped up frequency since 2000 again and again.

As for the traffic rights problem: What effect would it have if an airline from the end destination would put its designator on the EK flights and local pax/freight would only be accommodated under that designator?


User currently offlineGemuser From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 5817 posts, RR: 6
Reply 16, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 2965 times:



Quoting Vfw614 (Reply 15):
Are EK's TT-rights capped in any way - frequency-wise, capacity-wise, destination-wise? I am wondering as they have ramped up frequency since 2000 again and again.

AFAIK they are fifth freedom right to NZ ONLY. Therefore the flight has to operate thru Oz to NZ from DXB, so I assume that any EK flight from DXB into Oz can continue on to NZ.

Gemuser



DC23468910;B72172273373G73873H74374475275376377L77W;A319 320321332333343;BAe146;C402;DHC6;F27;L188;MD80MD85
User currently offlineZK-NBT From New Zealand, joined Oct 2000, 5359 posts, RR: 11
Reply 17, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 2955 times:



Quoting Vfw614 (Reply 15):

Are EK's TT-rights capped in any way - frequency-wise, capacity-wise, destination-wise? I am wondering as they have ramped up frequency since 2000 again and again.

EK have been flying the Tasman since August 2003, they started with daily flights from SYD and MEL to AKL BNE was added in October when they started flights their, CHC was added from MEL in 2004 3x weekly iniatially then daily later on, flights were switched to SYD in 2005/06 sometime.

They are capped at 4x daily Tasman flights and cannot increase for the forseeable future or until there is a new deal.

As for any expansion, maybe DXB-AKL non stop thats not Australia I no.

DXB-ADL via BKK would be my best guess with a 77W.

Maybe SYD-NAN or AKL-NAN aswell.


User currently offlineETA Unknown From Comoros, joined Jun 2001, 2089 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 2673 times:

Nah, mate- the money's on Invercargill!

User currently offlineDavidByrne From New Zealand, joined Sep 2007, 1669 posts, RR: 2
Reply 19, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 2 days ago) and read 2547 times:



Quoting ETA Unknown (Reply 18):
Nah, mate- the money's on Invercargill!

I knew someone would propose IVC, but I imagined it would be another persistently vexing poster that would do so . . .



This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
User currently offlineSydscott From Australia, joined Oct 2003, 3189 posts, RR: 20
Reply 20, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 2536 times:



Quoting DJMEL (Reply 3):
Pre-diction for 2010 is that EK will join the ranks of the Round the World Carriers and link LAX and AKL to complete there gap this flight will of course connect with AKL - BNE/SYD/MEL bound services or vice - versa.

I don't know why they would bother doing that.

If EK really wanted to be innovative out of Australia and offer a round the world service, I'd go for beyond rights to GRU and use one their A340-500's to do it. Politically, that would be tolerable in Australia given the lack of connections from here, and NZ, to South America and it would open a great new route which woudl encourage the development of South America/Australia/South East Asia traffic. The same argument applies to SQ. This would then give the South Americans an alternative to flying via North America to South East Asia/India/Australia etc.


User currently offlineTheGMan From United States of America, joined Nov 2008, 687 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 2524 times:

Here is a revolutionary idea to beef up aircraft utilization:
Use one A/C to fly eastward around the world in a specific route, and another one to fly westward along the same route.


User currently offlineQF175 From Portugal, joined Mar 2007, 701 posts, RR: 2
Reply 22, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 2417 times:

Fascinating topic Vfw614, which makes for interesting reading.

To be honest, I would argue that services would only be viable from Sydney and/or Brisbane.

One major setback would be gaining the necessary rights. Take Brisbane - Noumea for example. Like a number of the Pacific routes (namely Nauru/Honiara), it is one that commands good yields and solid loads and is a route where the incumbents (namely Qantas/Aircalin) have a cosy duopoly. Pacific Blue tried unsuccessfully many years ago to launch Brisbane - Noumea flights, however staunch opposition from many locals (travel agents predominantly) and Aircalin (and subsequent disapproval from the local authorities) led them to abandon the idea altogether. Emirates would not be immune from such opposition which could potentially derail their plans (if they even had such plans I might add).

Pacific Blue are commanding good yields on their newly launched routes to Honiara and Port Moresby, even if the frequencies are not as desirable (to what the opposition is offering) and the aircraft aren't 100% full. The airline should be commended from improving air access to many of the Pacific Islands and for growing passenger numbers at a phenomenal rate - all of which I'm sure new Emirates service would do.

There is certainly demand for a Brisbane - Honolulu service (recall reading in an IASC statement that 45% of Qantas' passengers are from NSW, while the remaining 55% are from other states - predominantly Queensland) and I am surprised that such a service does not currently operate. Given the current global situation and lack of JQ/HA airframes, this certainly has an impact..

I for one would be over the moon to see expanded services to the Pacific region.

With regards to Adelaide and Emirates, a snippet from the 2 Feb edition of Travelweekly will certainly put rumours to bed and dampen any hopes of new services between the two ports. It statess that the airline has "run the numbers" and "Adelaide doesn't stack up" - see article in full here - http://archives.traveldaily.com.au/2009/Feb09/td030209.pdf

Cheers


User currently offlineDavidByrne From New Zealand, joined Sep 2007, 1669 posts, RR: 2
Reply 23, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 2399 times:



Quoting QF175 (Reply 22):
With regards to Adelaide and Emirates, a snippet from the 2 Feb edition of Travelweekly will certainly put rumours to bed and dampen any hopes of new services between the two ports. It statess that the airline has "run the numbers" and "Adelaide doesn't stack up"

If ADL can't be made to stack up, I really can't see how any of the Pacific islands, with the very slightly possible exception of Fiji, could be made to stack up for EK. Think of the capacity that EK would pump into the Pacific with just one daily flight. I think that the only realistic option for EK is AKL-LAX, perhaps tagged to a (say) MEL-AKL flight, though I'm not sure whether EK has on-rights from New Zealand, or fifth freedom rights bewteen NZ/Australia and the USA (unlikely from Australia, I would have thought).



This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
User currently offlineVfw614 From Germany, joined Dec 2001, 4062 posts, RR: 5
Reply 24, posted (5 years 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 2362 times:



Quoting DavidByrne (Reply 23):
If ADL can't be made to stack up, I really can't see how any of the Pacific islands, with the very slightly possible exception of Fiji, could be made to stack up for EK.

Two different stories. ADL is about a dedicated nonstop service to DXB. "South pacific destinations" we are discussing would be tag-ons to services to SYD, MEL, BNE - just like the flights to NZ. They would have a totally different customer base and different economics.

If ADL cannot sustain a daily flight in its own right - how about tagging on ADL to one of the two daily PER flights? Or do aircraft at PER, due to the shorter distance, do not have a lot of down-time? I seem to recall that there have been longhaul flights going to Eastern seahire destinations that called at PER (or am I confusing things?) - if so, did the airlines have cabotage rights?

Quoting DavidByrne (Reply 23):
Think of the capacity that EK would pump into the Pacific with just one daily flight. I

Sure, but as said earlier, it does not need to be daily (e.g. 1-3-5-7 BNE-XXX, -2-4-6-- BNE-YYY) and also a A340-500 pax-wise is not that much bigger than a 189seat B737-800 (70 additional seats) - but has lots of cargo capacity.


25 Eta unknown : ADL-PER would be a 3 hour tag-on... if you need to tag ADL, then MEL is really the only option. There used to be SYD/MEL-PER flights, but that was a L
26 DavidByrne : I don't think that this is fair on EK (not that I'm an EK supporter) - "seat dumping" is a very emotive term and implies that the airline is delibera
27 Gemuser : Actually it was BOM-MAA-SIN-PER-SYD-NAN. Aircraft stopping at PER between the east coast and Europe/Africa was originally mainly a range thing. SYD-S
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