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The Future Of Aviation?  
User currently offlineKennyone From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 81 posts, RR: 0
Posted (5 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 4641 times:

Hello all  

Forget, just for one night, the economic crisis and Boeing's 787 delays, along with the rest of the World's problems.

How do you foresee the Aviation World in 2050?

One major airline in each country/continent? (e.g.: following up the NW/DL merger)
Or several airlines with or without codeshares? Low-cost companies?

Skyteam Airlines vs. Star Alliance Airways vs. One World Airlines?

Point-to-point flights? or Hub-to-Hub flights?

Solar-powered Jumbos? Mass-moving aircraft flying 600 people at a time? Or rather 250-300 jets making more frequent trips?

SUPERSONIC?  

To put simply, what is YOUR vision of the future in the airliner world   ?

[Edited 2009-03-04 16:42:42]


Soarin'
29 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineWAC From United States of America, joined Nov 2008, 275 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (5 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 4572 times:

Europe:
Major consolidation AF-KLM will still be Europe's largest airline. LH will have the most regional airlines, and have hubs in Germany, Switzerland, Italy, Austria, Scandinavia.
BA-IB-AA will be a substantial airline group but dwarfed by AF and LH groups. LCC will be mainly dominated by FR and U2. There will be some smaller regional carriers.
Airbus will be be the dominant airline manufacturer
America:
DL is the only independent airline in America. All the rest are owned partly or fully by foreign companies. DL-AF group will have the most integrated JV.
Boeing will be the second biggest manufacturer.
S. America+Canada
Some bought by European carriers, and some remain independent. Embraer will dwarf Bombardier.
Asia.
China will have a substantial airline manufacturer. Possible 3rd after Boeing. The most respected airline in the world will be Asiana.
Middle East
EK will the biggest airline in the world by aircraft.
Australia
Nothing changes apart from Air NZ might be owned by an Asian or European carrier.
Russia
Aeroflot will start negotiations to create AF-KLM-Aeroflot group.


Alliances.
*alliance breaks up due to being to big and too hard to handle. LH and SQ decide to build up a fund to buy airlines together instead. *alliance will still still be the biggest one and renamed KrisMiles.
Skyteam will be the most comprehensive and most integrated alliance. Oneworld will be dominated by AA-BA-IB group.
A380 will be the King of the skies, and there will be very few B747s.
the world will be B737s A320s A350, B787s A380 haven. Airbus will start developing with other European manufactures a supersonic aircraft, while Boeing and the Japanese together will develop a commercial a/c that can fly on a combination of of 02 and H20.


User currently offlineJQFlightie From Australia, joined Mar 2009, 978 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (5 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 4550 times:

haha in Australia JQ will take over QF! wow that would be so sad! as i wanna work for QF!
little by little QF Domestic are giving JQ more and more routes both domestically and NZ operations!



Next Trip: PER-DPS-LOP-CGK-KUL-PVG-LHR, LCY-MAD-VLC, BCN-LYS-TLS-IST-JED-KUL-SGN-CAN-MEL
User currently offlineOsiris30 From Barbados, joined Sep 2006, 3192 posts, RR: 25
Reply 3, posted (5 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 4539 times:

Wow where to begin... let's start with saying I'm not gonig to begin to tell you who the dominant manufacturer is going to be like some have and will try, because frankly in 40 years a lot will change.

I will begin by telling you that every type that now flies will be out of service including the 350 and 787 (they will be oddities relegated to cargo duties). The 380 and 748 will have long since passed replaced by more efficient BWB/BWB hybrid aircraft.

I don't expect we'll see (sadly) supersonic transport at anything above the corporate jet size level (barring a major unforeseen breakthrough).

I do expect we will see competitive offerings from China and Russia (at least one of them anyway) in the commercial space.

I expect they will still run on good old A1. I expect the industry will remain very cyclical. I expect you won't see much difference in the number of carriers and that too will remain cyclical.

I do expect one major change will be the death of the traditional be everything to everyone airline. I expect you will have LCC and luxury carriers. All Y or all J/F. Those will be your options, which services and price levels to suit.

I expect airport security will still suck. The TSA will still be useless and for most of us the onboard meal will still be junk and over priced. Immigration lines will still be a PITA. I don't see much of a shift in point to point vs. hub and spoke in LCC market place. I do expect the all J/F carriers will be mostly point to point.

All in all I don't expect much to change in the next 40 years, just as not much changed (really) in the last 30.



I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
User currently offlineREALDEAL From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (5 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 4526 times:



Quoting Kennyone (Thread starter):

Hello all

Forget, just for one night, the economic crisis and Boeing's 787 delays, along with the rest of the World's problems.

How do you foresee the Aviation World in 2050?

One major airline in each country/continent? (e.g.: following up the NW/DL merger)
Or several airlines with or without codeshares? Low-cost companies?

Skyteam Airlines vs. Star Alliance Airways vs. One World Airlines?

Point-to-point flights? or Hub-to-Hub flights?

Solar-powered Jumbos? Mass-moving aircraft flying 600 people at a time? Or rather 250-300 jets making more frequent trips?

SUPERSONIC?

To put simply, what is YOUR vision of the future in the airliner world ?

no more legacies.

Ryanair, Air Asia, Jetstar & G4 to run 80% of worlds commercial pax aviation !!!


User currently offlineREALDEAL From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (5 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 4528 times:



Quoting JQFlightie (Reply 2):
haha in Australia JQ will take over QF! wow that would be so sad! as i wanna work for QF!
little by little QF Domestic are giving JQ more and more routes both domestically and NZ operations!

forgot to mention.

Qantas group will be renamed Jetstar group & Qantas brand will cease to exist becasue worthless.


User currently offlineCws818 From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 1176 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (5 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 4504 times:



Quoting REALDEAL (Reply 4):
no more legacies.

Ryanair, Air Asia, Jetstar & G4 to run 80% of worlds commercial pax aviation !!!

Yikes, under your scenario there would be no flights to/from New York City, Brazil, Tokyo, Sub-Saharan Africa...



volgende halte...Station Hollands Spoor
User currently offlineN83SF From United States of America, joined Dec 2008, 72 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (5 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 4506 times:

How far in the future do you see airplanes flying without pilots in command? It can't be far away considering everything that computers and autopilot can do today.


N83SF
User currently offlineREALDEAL From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (5 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 4500 times:



Quoting Cws818 (Reply 6):
Quoting REALDEAL (Reply 4):
no more legacies.

Ryanair, Air Asia, Jetstar & G4 to run 80% of worlds commercial pax aviation !!!

Yikes, under your scenario there would be no flights to/from New York City, Brazil, Tokyo, Sub-Saharan Africa...

of course there would. Why on earth would u say that ?????


User currently offlineOsiris30 From Barbados, joined Sep 2006, 3192 posts, RR: 25
Reply 9, posted (5 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 4493 times:



Quoting N83SF (Reply 7):
How far in the future do you see airplanes flying without pilots in command? It can't be far away considering everything that computers and autopilot can do today.

We will still have pilots in 40 years. Witness the recent Turkish 737 accident, should have been pilot preventable (I think). Also the BA incident @ LHR wouldn't have been managed appropriately by AP now the Hudson ditching. And I say this as a 'computer guy'!



I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
User currently offlineAf773atmsp From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 2688 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (5 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 4488 times:

Planes will be running on solar power.

Some of the major carriers will offer scheduled and/or charter flights to the Moon and Mars.

LCCs will still be around along with major airlines.

The largest planes will carry around 700 passengers.

Flights from USA to Cuba and North Korea will open up.



It ain't no normal MD80 its a Super 80!
User currently offlineCws818 From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 1176 posts, RR: 2
Reply 11, posted (5 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 4486 times:



Quoting REALDEAL (Reply 8):


Quoting Cws818 (Reply 6):
Quoting REALDEAL (Reply 4):
no more legacies.

Ryanair, Air Asia, Jetstar & G4 to run 80% of worlds commercial pax aviation !!!

Yikes, under your scenario there would be no flights to/from New York City, Brazil, Tokyo, Sub-Saharan Africa...

of course there would. Why on earth would u say that ?????

Well, FR, Air Asia, JQ, G4 do not fly to Brazil, EWR/JFK/LGA, NRT, Sub-Saharan African nations



volgende halte...Station Hollands Spoor
User currently offlineREALDEAL From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (5 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 4452 times:



Quoting Cws818 (Reply 11):
Well, FR, Air Asia, JQ, G4 do not fly to Brazil, EWR/JFK/LGA, NRT, Sub-Saharan African nations

of course they will in 2050 !!!

Quoting Af773atmsp (Reply 10):
LCCs will still be around along with major airlines.

The largest planes will carry around 700 passengers.

Already there are A380's ordered that will carry ~1000 pax, let alone when they extend the current A380.

The LCC's will be the majors. Todays majors won't exist unless you're calling Ryanair, AAX, JQ majors which I guess we should.


User currently offlineCws818 From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 1176 posts, RR: 2
Reply 13, posted (5 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 4438 times:



Quoting REALDEAL (Reply 12):

Quoting Cws818 (Reply 11):
Well, FR, Air Asia, JQ, G4 do not fly to Brazil, EWR/JFK/LGA, NRT, Sub-Saharan African nations

of course they will in 2050 !!!

Mea culpa: I misread the 2050 date in the original post...for some reason I thought he said 2015 - multitasking has its limits. Many apologies for the misunderstanding!



volgende halte...Station Hollands Spoor
User currently offlineEDICHC From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (5 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 4369 times:



Quoting WAC (Reply 1):
Australia
Nothing changes apart from Air NZ might be owned by an Asian or European carrier.

I don't think that even as far ahead as 2050 will NZ become part of Australia


User currently offlineDirectorguy From Egypt, joined Jul 2008, 1681 posts, RR: 11
Reply 15, posted (5 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 4307 times:

What a fun thread!

Quoting Kennyone (Thread starter):
How do you foresee the Aviation World in 2050?



Quoting Kennyone (Thread starter):
One major airline in each country/continent? (e.g.: following up the NW/DL merger)
Or several airlines with or without codeshares? Low-cost companies?

I think that there will be several 'powerhouses'. The new Delta among them, Emirates, Singapore Airlines, United (with or without CO), AF-KLM, Lufthansa.
In regions like the Gulf, where there is an overlapping market and 4 potentially huge airlines, the market will be sensitive to the new point-to-point medium of travel. Whether hubbing on such a large scale will actually work when by 2050 AKL-LHR will almost certainly be nonstop is something that remains.

Quoting Kennyone (Thread starter):
Skyteam Airlines vs. Star Alliance Airways vs. One World Airlines?

I think that alliances will remain, but that perhaps another alliance will emerge, and that it depends on who gains new members the most.

Quoting Kennyone (Thread starter):
Solar-powered Jumbos? Mass-moving aircraft flying 600 people at a time? Or rather 250-300 jets making more frequent trips?

I think that passengers will always favour frequency. More Jumbos WILL be introduced, and eventually they'll have the range to do AKL-LHR, BOM-SFO etc. nonstop. Since many citypairs are very elastic in demand, O&D etc., hubs will never completely dissapear. If a flight goes through a hub, it will carry passengers over to more destinations, and hence, if one citypair doesn't work, there'll be back-up. E.g. Christchurch-Birmingham:
They are both secondary points seperated by 20 hours of travel. Before Emirates, the citypair wasn't as viable. But Emirates was able to offer the citypair via 1 changing point (DXB) and thus enabled the market to revitalize itself. But the market itself is probably very small, and only a select number of passengers fly it. If this was served point to point, it wouldn't make money, unless you used a 30-seater aircraft with the range of a 77L. If passengers don't fly it, then it will be scrapped. But because CHC-DXB is a feeder flight, and passengers will be connecting onwards to LHR, CDG, FRA, BEY, MXP etc., it won't matter if the CHC-BHX citypair fails. Only if all the citypairs do badly will this route be closed.
That's why point-to-point won't work always. At most, I imagine that continents will comfortably be able to connect (e.g. India-North America) but that only substantial citypairs will be able to support nonstop flights (which is the case anyway, with extreme exceptions).
Hence, hubs will never go out of fashion.

Quoting Kennyone (Thread starter):
SUPERSONIC?



Quoting Kennyone (Thread starter):
To put simply, what is YOUR vision of the future in the airliner world ?

I think that Europe, the USA, China, Russia, India and one unforseen country will be producing aircraft. It will no longer be Boeing vs Airbus. The industry will become much more diversified, and resemble the auto industry where you have numerous makers producing dozens of different cars (well perhaps not extreme but you get the point).
Supersonic green aircraft will make a comeback, and that once the eco issues are sorted out, speed will become the main priority.
Eventually, some unforseen war, or political alliance, or scientific breakthrough will change all that. World War 2, of all things, gave the Allies the technology to launch the jet age in the 1950s, which subsquently gave way to the jumbo age etc.
Who would have forseen in 1958 that we would have large aircraft with such amazing range? Granted, they thought we'd be living in Outer Space in mega-sized flying ships  Smile but still, you never know what'll happen.


User currently offlineVeeseeten From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2008, 169 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (5 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 4257 times:



Quoting Directorguy (Reply 15):
What a fun thread!

Yes! But I do sincerely hope that most of these predictions are meant to be tongue-in-cheek, because this thread is 90% ludicrous!  Silly


User currently offlineGFFgold From Indonesia, joined Feb 2007, 443 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (5 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 4102 times:

40 years ago, would anyone have predicted aviation as it exists today? My first long-haul flight was in 1968, London to Singapore. The whole experience on the ground and in the air was quite different to what it is now. If you had suggested then that intending passengers would have to pass through metal detectors and even take their shoes off, that all flights would be non-smoking, and that there would arise airlines that didn't feed passengers or serve drinks, people would have laughed.

User currently offlineAf773atmsp From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 2688 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (5 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 4067 times:



Quoting GFFgold (Reply 17):

I wonder what the Wright Brothers reaction would be if they saw an A380.



It ain't no normal MD80 its a Super 80!
User currently offlineJQFlightie From Australia, joined Mar 2009, 978 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (5 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 4016 times:



Quoting REALDEAL (Reply 5):
forgot to mention.

Qantas group will be renamed Jetstar group & Qantas brand will cease to exist becasue worthless.

lol but this will happen by 2013 not 2050! lmao... but sad this is its happening little by little!!
lets just hope Qantas relises this so it doesnt turn out like British Airways and GO! lol



Next Trip: PER-DPS-LOP-CGK-KUL-PVG-LHR, LCY-MAD-VLC, BCN-LYS-TLS-IST-JED-KUL-SGN-CAN-MEL
User currently offlineJQFlightie From Australia, joined Mar 2009, 978 posts, RR: 1
Reply 20, posted (5 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 4015 times:

has anyone noticed, no-one has mentioned the Virgin Group  Wink arent they going for world domination!! haha


Next Trip: PER-DPS-LOP-CGK-KUL-PVG-LHR, LCY-MAD-VLC, BCN-LYS-TLS-IST-JED-KUL-SGN-CAN-MEL
User currently offlineDirectorguy From Egypt, joined Jul 2008, 1681 posts, RR: 11
Reply 21, posted (5 years 6 months 2 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 3956 times:



Quoting GFFgold (Reply 17):
40 years ago, would anyone have predicted aviation as it exists today? My first long-haul flight was in 1968, London to Singapore. The whole experience on the ground and in the air was quite different to what it is now. If you had suggested then that intending passengers would have to pass through metal detectors and even take their shoes off, that all flights would be non-smoking, and that there would arise airlines that didn't feed passengers or serve drinks, people would have laughed.



Quoting Af773atmsp (Reply 18):
I wonder what the Wright Brothers reaction would be if they saw an A380.

So true. Aviation has taken great leaps. Aviation is a huge success story in our time and age.
Amazingly enough, the aviation industry even took a few steps back. In 1969, people thought that by 2000 we'd be flying supersonic all the time. Supersonic travel didn't quite take off, unfortunately, and is no more.
Aviation is extremely safe now. Accidents are far in between, thank God. That's one of the good things that happened.
As a side night, Orville Wright lived from 1871 until 1948. Had he lived 10 more years he would have seen the 707 in service. Had he lived to be a hundred, he would have flown on a 747! Wouldn't THAT have been something!


User currently offlineEDICHC From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (5 years 6 months 2 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 3903 times:



Quoting Directorguy (Reply 21):
So true. Aviation has taken great leaps. Aviation is a huge success story in our time and age.
Amazingly enough, the aviation industry even took a few steps back. In 1969, people thought that by 2000 we'd be flying supersonic all the time. Supersonic travel didn't quite take off, unfortunately, and is no more.

Just what I was thinking, for maybe the first 50 years of commercial aviation the industry trend and associated technology advances were all about decreasing journey time and increasing aircraft speed and capacity. Now the trends are for greater fuel efficiency and 'Green technology like biofuels'.

Perhaps the biggest change I forsee is that in the longer term more and more carriers will become finacially unviable as private enterprises and more state control returning. A knock on effect will be greater modal integration of public transport, with a reduction of short-haul traffic and a further reinaissance of rail travel. Here is an example for the UK...

LHR and LGW close.... a new London airport (4 runway) built Kansai style in the Thames estuary. This will also be the site of the London region maglev hub. with trains that could reach the likes of Newcastle in about an hour, leaving perhaps only BFS, INV and the islands with domestic air services.


User currently onlineBlueSky1976 From Poland, joined Jul 2004, 1884 posts, RR: 4
Reply 23, posted (5 years 6 months 2 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 3891 times:

1) Airlines: since regulatory merger allowance limitations will be a thing of the past, Star Alliance, OneWorld and SkyTeam will become single business entities, divided between familiar brand names per market. North America will have AA/DL/UA, Europe - LH/BA/KL/AF, Asia - JL/NH/KE and so on;

2) Aircraft: good ole' tube and wings will own the skies forever. One manufacturer will try to enter the market with mid-size BWB, but will fail miserably due to passengers getting sick on every flights. Kerosene-based aviation fuel is no more, with the advent of algae-based biofuel. Short range turboprops are replaced by ducted open-rotor engine (DORE) type propultion systems, while medium and long-range planes are powered by ultra-high bypass engines, which burn approximately 25 - 30% less fuel than today's comparable powerplants. Common pylon technology is mature, allowing flexible engine exchanges between types. Carbon fibre and laminate-based composites are replaced by alloy-based ones, lighter and stronger than CFRPs.


3) Manufacturers: Airbus, Boeing and United Aircraft Company (joint venture between Russia and India) dominating the narrow- and widebody segments, Embraer, Bombardier and Mitsubishi sharing the sub-150 seat market, regional aircraft manufactured by ATR, Bombardier and AVIC;

Airbus, Boeing and UAC product ranges:
- short to medium - range narrowbody low-wing twinjet, capacity: 140 - 240;
- medium to ultra long-haul widebody low-wing twin, capacity: 270 - 350;
- large long and ultra long haul widebody low-wing twin, capacity: 380 - 450

ATR, AVIC, Bombardier and Embraer product ranges:
- short range high-wing, DORE-powered twin engine aircraft, capacity: 64 - 88 (ATR, Bombardier and AVIC)
- short to medium range low - wing twinjet, capacity: 98 - 140 (Bombardier, Embraer, AVIC)



STOP TERRORRUSSIA!!!
User currently offlineBrilondon From Canada, joined Aug 2005, 4226 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (5 years 6 months 2 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 3880 times:



Quoting Af773atmsp (Reply 10):
Some of the major carriers will offer scheduled and/or charter flights to the Moon and Mars.

And we will all have flying cars, and robot maids in our apartments in the sky. There will be no need for airplanes to travel here on earth, except as recreational flying to relive the good old days. Star Trek style transporters will see to that. Big grin



Rush for ever; Yankees all the way!!
25 EDICHC : Interesting concept there for the third manufacurer...but no place for China in there? By 2050 China will be by far the worlds largest economy in ter
26 MMEPHX : Great thread. Aviation in 2050? Who knows. 40 years ago we were just seeing 747s enter service and flying was still generally a privilege of the wealt
27 Alessandro : Or the AN-225? 40 years is a long time in aviation, I doubt any supersonic civilian planes around, perhaps we see one engined larger civilian aircraf
28 Ciaran : Great thread! Eh... Airships will make a comeback, (50-100years) from five star cruise ships on the classic routes i.e London, Paris / NY LA etc.. als
29 OV735 : Assuming that an alternative fuel source to kerosene will be found, here's a few possibilities. First off, most of the comparisons we make today, like
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