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PEK Passenger Traffic Up 28% In February  
User currently offlineCityAirline From Sweden, joined Nov 2005, 687 posts, RR: 0
Posted (5 years 4 months 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 2983 times:

During the last few months PEK passenger traffic has been growing extremly strong, and it didn't stop in February. It actually did the strongest growth in a long time with 28,2%. Together with the 19,2% growth in January, the accumulated growth for the first two months was 23,5%.
An interesting note is that if the airport can sustain a 20% growth for the full year, it will pass six airports and end up as the second busiest in the world by passengers, only after ATL (but ahead of ORD, HND, LHR).

http://en.bcia.com.cn/investor/data.shtml

//Alex


I don't fly to live, I live to fly...
10 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offline2707200X From United States of America, joined Mar 2009, 8463 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (5 years 4 months 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 2824 times:

The economy in Beijing has just been booming, even if much of Asia has taken a hit.


"And all I ask is a tall ship and a star to steer her by." John Masefield Sea-Fever
User currently offlineZKOJH From China, joined Sep 2004, 1661 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (5 years 4 months 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 2775 times:

It might have had something to do with Chinese New year falling early in Jan this year, but now that a few international airlines are pulling PEK, SAS, QF, to name a few, and other airlines offering fewer services, their is more likely to be a drop soon..


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User currently offlineLightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12903 posts, RR: 100
Reply 3, posted (5 years 4 months 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 2563 times:
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Quoting CityAirline (Thread starter):
http://en.bcia.com.cn/investor/data.shtml

Your link is broken.

Quoting CityAirline (Thread starter):
An interesting note is that if the airport can sustain a 20% growth for the full year, it will pass six airports and end up as the second busiest in the world by passengers, only after ATL (but ahead of ORD, HND, LHR).

20% growth might (or might not) be enough to bypass ORD and LHR. With what I'm reading about the Japanese economy, passing HND is a given.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World%2...iest_airports_by_passenger_traffic

But this is impressive for a 3 runway airport.

Quoting ZKOJH (Reply 2):
It might have had something to do with Chinese New year falling early in Jan this year

I agree. Now lets see how traffic does post the new year in this economy.
The BBC has an excellent series on the state of China's economy. Too many construction workers were told not to come back to the coastal cities. That will cut into traffic.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineAirbazar From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 8231 posts, RR: 10
Reply 4, posted (5 years 4 months 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 2526 times:



Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 3):
I agree. Now lets see how traffic does post the new year in this economy.
The BBC has an excellent series on the state of China's economy. Too many construction workers were told not to come back to the coastal cities. That will cut into traffic.

The Chinese economy is still expected to grow 7%-8% in 2009. Sure, it looks bad when compared to the 12% they were seeing not too long ago, but 7% is nothing to sneeze at.


User currently offlineCityAirline From Sweden, joined Nov 2005, 687 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (5 years 4 months 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 2507 times:



Quoting ZKOJH (Reply 2):
It might have had something to do with Chinese New year falling early in Jan this year, but now that a few international airlines are pulling PEK, SAS, QF, to name a few, and other airlines offering fewer services, their is more likely to be a drop soon..

I don't think it has got anything to do with that, as the pigures have been growing like this for five months now. Also, I don't think the pax numbers will be affected much by that, as the international traffic only represents 20% of the total traffic at the airport. The international growth for the two first months was only 0,6%, while the domestic side saw 31%. So it's obvious that the domestic passengers are driving the growth.

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 3):
Your link is broken.

Really? I can still access it. Well just enter PEK's website and then press "site map", and then "operation data".

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 3):
20% growth might (or might not) be enough to bypass ORD and LHR. With what I'm reading about the Japanese economy, passing HND is a given.

You are right, but what you are also forgetting is that LHR and ORD will probably decrease with a few procents, and that would be enough. Well we shall just wait and see.

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 3):
I agree. Now lets see how traffic does post the new year in this economy.
The BBC has an excellent series on the state of China's economy. Too many construction workers were told not to come back to the coastal cities. That will cut into traffic.

Again, I really don't believe the new year had any major effect as this has been the trend during the last five months. Ever since the Olympics ended, the airport has seen massive growth.

//Alex



I don't fly to live, I live to fly...
User currently offlineCloudyapple From Hong Kong, joined Jul 2005, 2454 posts, RR: 10
Reply 6, posted (5 years 4 months 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 2450 times:



Quoting CityAirline (Thread starter):
An interesting note is that if the airport can sustain a 20% growth for the full year, it will pass six airports and end up as the second busiest in the world by passengers, only after ATL (but ahead of ORD, HND, LHR).

The major difference is that in W07 the third runway opened late in october and the additional runway capacity was not made available until S08. So the W07 season was still constrained and capacity was only fully released and taken up in S08 and for comparison W08.

Note all of the increase is in domestic flights. Interesting international flights have declined consistently in January and February, in line with the rate of decline in the region in the order of ~10%. But international passengers have not dropped so either load factors have gone up a lot or average aircraft size has gone up at the expense of frequencies.

Freight has dropped (~11%) but it has not dropped like other major freight hubs have (~25%).

Comparisons between figures for April 2008 and 2009 will be more representative of the trend going forward after the effect of the new runway opening has disappeared.



A310/A319/20/21/A332/3/A343/6/A388/B732/5/7/8/B742/S/4/B752/B763/B772/3/W/E145/J41/MD11/83/90
User currently offlineCityAirline From Sweden, joined Nov 2005, 687 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (5 years 4 months 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 2399 times:



Quoting Cloudyapple (Reply 6):
The major difference is that in W07 the third runway opened late in october and the additional runway capacity was not made available until S08. So the W07 season was still constrained and capacity was only fully released and taken up in S08 and for comparison W08.



Quoting Cloudyapple (Reply 6):
Comparisons between figures for April 2008 and 2009 will be more representative of the trend going forward after the effect of the new runway opening has disappeared.

Yes you're very right about that. It's all about the opening of the third runway, though didn't realize why it didn't grow until S08 when the runway opened in W07 already.
I think the growth will continue to be at 20% until August, and then it will slow down to about 10%.

//Alex



I don't fly to live, I live to fly...
User currently offlineLightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12903 posts, RR: 100
Reply 8, posted (5 years 4 months 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 2321 times:
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Quoting Airbazar (Reply 4):
but 7% is nothing to sneeze at.

True. But the question is, will they really get 7%? Exports to the US are down an amazing amount. Some drop to the rest of the world too. I doubt they'll acheive 7%. Note: I'm not prediting a contraction for all of 2009, just less growth.

Quoting CityAirline (Reply 5):
Well we shall just wait and see.

 checkmark 
No doubt other airports are having a tough time.

Quoting Cloudyapple (Reply 6):
The major difference is that in W07 the third runway opened late in october and the additional runway capacity was not made available until S08. So the W07 season was still constrained and capacity was only fully released and taken up in S08 and for comparison W08.

Interesting detail. If it was 'pent up' hubbing capacity... growth will be quick.

I'm forgetting, what is the design capacity of the new Terminal?

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineCloudyapple From Hong Kong, joined Jul 2005, 2454 posts, RR: 10
Reply 9, posted (5 years 4 months 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 2316 times:



Quoting CityAirline (Reply 7):
though didn't realize why it didn't grow until S08 when the runway opened in W07 already.

It's a very very big change going from 2 runways to 3. The way arrivals and departures are handled is very different. Both in the air and on the ground. They opened the runway and took the whole of W07 to test, fine tune and familiarize their newly designed procedures. It's much easier to do so with 2 runway's traffic on 3 runways meaning you do have a bit of buffer in case things do go wrong. I think they were very sensible and realistic in the planning.



A310/A319/20/21/A332/3/A343/6/A388/B732/5/7/8/B742/S/4/B752/B763/B772/3/W/E145/J41/MD11/83/90
User currently offlineCityAirline From Sweden, joined Nov 2005, 687 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (5 years 4 months 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 2088 times:



Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 8):
I'm forgetting, what is the design capacity of the new Terminal?

Around 50 million. And even if it was above maximum capacity, T1 and T2 alone handled 53 million in 2007 before T3 opened, which means that the facailities of PEK together can handle over a 100 million, so the problem will be with the runways. Can those three handle over 33 million a year each?

Quoting Cloudyapple (Reply 9):
It's a very very big change going from 2 runways to 3. The way arrivals and departures are handled is very different. Both in the air and on the ground. They opened the runway and took the whole of W07 to test, fine tune and familiarize their newly designed procedures. It's much easier to do so with 2 runway's traffic on 3 runways meaning you do have a bit of buffer in case things do go wrong. I think they were very sensible and realistic in the planning.

Okay I see. I just didn't know it took that long.
But what bothers me the most is that the city of Beijing needed a new terminal so desperately for the Olympics to be able to cope with the added volume, but instead Ausust last year saw the biggest decline during the whole year??

//Alex



I don't fly to live, I live to fly...
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