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Odds On Qantas To Defer 787 Deliveries  
User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Posted (5 years 6 months 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 9915 times:

http://business.smh.com.au/business/...-787-deliveries-20090327-9e4v.html

Matt O'Sullivan March 28, 2009

PRESSURE is building on Qantas to defer deliveries of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner aircraft to avoid having to tap the sharemarket again to keep its investment-grade credit rating.

Facing the worst downturn in travel in years, the airline could also be forced to inject up to $200 million into its superannuation scheme because of a shortfall caused by investment losses.


Main points:
Alan Joyce, has repeatedly insisted it has options on the delivery of the more fuel-efficient 787 because of the repeated delays to delivery dates. "The 787 is so far delayed that our contract allows us to walk away from it," he said recently.
....

However, Moody's cut Qantas's long-term debt rating last month and warned of further cuts if air travel continues to suffer.


Delays would presumably also allow Qantas to receive later frames that benefit from early improvements to the 787.

The economic problems appear to be a major factor in relation to the need to add funds to the defined benefits pension scheme that is in the red due to "losses" on investments.

73 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineLumberton From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 4708 posts, RR: 20
Reply 1, posted (5 years 6 months 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 9827 times:

Good grief! UA could actually have been prescient when they predicted they'd get delivery slots when the inevitable down turn occured. This could be their chance!  Wink

[Edited 2009-03-27 09:43:57]


"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
User currently offlineZeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 9109 posts, RR: 75
Reply 2, posted (5 years 6 months 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 9733 times:

Pretty sure I read in a Feb issue of AW&ST, Alan Joyce being quoted as saying they were looking at deferring the first 15 787s, from memory they were all marked to go to Jetstar.


We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineJbernie From Australia, joined Jan 2007, 880 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (5 years 6 months 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 9556 times:

On one hand you would think a few deferrals would be good given the downturn, but how long before production starts on a given aircraft do you need to defer?

With the production delays and no actual customer deliveries can QF sit tight for a while and wait/hope that the world economy improves a bit before they actually need to make this decision?


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31014 posts, RR: 87
Reply 4, posted (5 years 6 months 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 9538 times:
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I would expect that since no production birds have actually started assembly (except ZA007?), any frames tasked to QF/JQ should be able to be re-assigned without any hardship, provided the customer-supplied equipment can be made ready in time.

User currently offlineER757 From Cayman Islands, joined May 2005, 2530 posts, RR: 7
Reply 5, posted (5 years 6 months 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 9301 times:

This is a perfect example of how the delays in the program could cost Boeing - over and above any compensation payments they make to any airlines waiting for their birds. Had this thing stuck to its original schedule QF (and others) would already have some deliveries. Instead, not only hasn't it flown yet, times turned hard for the airlines and now many of them just looking for excuses to bail out on planes they don't need at present have that way out. Had Boeing been able to deliver on time, then once the plane is with the carrier, if they decide to park it, Boeing's still got their $$ in the bank.

User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31014 posts, RR: 87
Reply 6, posted (5 years 6 months 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 9288 times:
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On the flip side, Boeing is in a position to work with all their customers so they can build planes they know have a home and not worry about white tails (like two of the most recent 747 freighters to come off the line).

After all, it's not like all ~60 customers suddenly don't want any of the ~900 planes they ordered.


User currently offlineANstar From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2003, 5245 posts, RR: 6
Reply 7, posted (5 years 6 months 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 9205 times:



Quoting Stitch (Reply 6):
On the flip side,

On the downside, Boeing have already paid Qantas compensation, so if they cancel any orders now, Qantas have effectively got money for nothing. Thanks Boeing.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31014 posts, RR: 87
Reply 8, posted (5 years 6 months 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 9148 times:
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Quoting ANstar (Reply 7):
On the downside, Boeing have already paid Qantas compensation, so if they cancel any orders now, Qantas have effectively got money for nothing. Thanks Boeing.

Do we know for a fact Boeing has sent QF/JQ a check? Or have they agreed to lower the amount of money QF/JQ will be paying for their planes when they are delivered?


User currently offlineSunriseValley From Canada, joined Jul 2004, 4995 posts, RR: 5
Reply 9, posted (5 years 6 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 8972 times:



Quoting ANstar (Reply 7):
On the downside, Boeing have already paid Qantas compensation, so if they cancel any orders now, Qantas have effectively got money for nothing. Thanks Boeing.

or

Quoting Stitch (Reply 8):
Do we know for a fact Boeing has sent QF/JQ a check? Or have they agreed to lower the amount of money QF/JQ will be paying for their planes when they are delivered?

I would support the second scenario plus a kicker that the deferment time is specifically agreed upon, for example not more than say one year.
I would think there is a bonus to both parties in that any delay would allow Boeing time to improve performance which would be to their advantage if performance is worse than the guarantee or if it improves on the guarantee , it is to the benefit to QF/JQ, which should mean
less damages paid by Boeing to QF/JQ.


User currently offlineVH-BZF From Australia, joined Oct 1999, 838 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (5 years 6 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 8936 times:

I am not surprised given the economic situation and QF is currently all about preserving cash. I also understand that JQ are quite happy with the 332's so it probably makes sense and seeing the little hiccups with the A380, maybe they will all be ironed out in the early deliveries to ANA and the other early customers, before QF took delivery of their frames?
On the other hand, I am sure their customers would be hanging out to get into a brand new B787 and out of the old B763's!

Tough times, tough decisions!

BZF



Ansett Australia - (was) One of the worlds great airlines!
User currently offlineTayser From Australia, joined Mar 2008, 1131 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (5 years 6 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 8910 times:

How many more years are left in the 767s which plow the CityFlyer routes?

User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21534 posts, RR: 60
Reply 12, posted (5 years 6 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 8882 times:



Quoting ANstar (Reply 7):
On the downside, Boeing have already paid Qantas compensation, so if they cancel any orders now, Qantas have effectively got money for nothing. Thanks Boeing.

Any compensation paid to QF is not sunk. If QF defers, that means other carriers can get their planes sooner, which means Boeing doesn't have to pay them compensation, or not as much.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineZeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 9109 posts, RR: 75
Reply 13, posted (5 years 6 months 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 8856 times:



Quoting Stitch (Reply 8):
Do we know for a fact Boeing has sent QF/JQ a check? Or have they agreed to lower the amount of money QF/JQ will be paying for their planes when they are delivered?

QF in last years annual report indicated they received 291 million for liquidated form the "manufacturers", we know 104 million was attributed to the A380 delays, so one would assume the rest was for the 787.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineSmi0006 From Australia, joined Jan 2008, 1534 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (5 years 6 months 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 8802 times:



Quoting Tayser (Reply 11):
How many more years are left in the 767s which plow the CityFlyer routes

I would be interested in this as well, I know it would be very hard to find but would be curious to see a break down of system wide delays based on aircraft type, thus which aircraft type causes the most delays.
I'm surprised we haven't seen more expansion by QF with the 738 fleet to more pacific and Tasman destinations.

I would have thought that QF would take all measure to ensure they get the 787 on time, given the flexibility it could offer them and JQ, plus the potential need for them in any upswing. I suppose only time will tell, if you don't have the money, you don't have the money


User currently offlineZeke From Hong Kong, joined Dec 2006, 9109 posts, RR: 75
Reply 15, posted (5 years 6 months 23 hours ago) and read 8523 times:



Quoting Zeke (Reply 2):
Pretty sure I read in a Feb issue of AW&ST, Alan Joyce being quoted as saying they were looking at deferring the first 15 787s, from memory they were all marked to go to Jetstar.

Found that article from Feb 22, 2009

"Qantas is raising the possibility of canceling the first 15 of its order for 65 Boeing 787s.

"The 787s are now so delayed that we in our contract could walk away from each of those aircraft, the first 15, as they come up on a month-by-month basis over the next year or so, and that could reduce capital expenditure significantly," says Chief Executive Alan Joyce."

from http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/gener...hannel=comm&id=news/aw022309p2.xml

Hope that puts my comments above in context.



We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
User currently offlineTullamarine From Australia, joined Aug 1999, 1574 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (5 years 6 months 23 hours ago) and read 8524 times:

QF do not necessarily want to delay the 787s but their balance sheet is stretched and their low share price means they cannot just have a share placement or rights issue without risking their investment grade.

The 787 is their easiest option to defer because they don't already have any in the fleet so deferral will flow through all of the associated infrastructure costs. Deferring A380s will not achieve this as the fleet already exists so the infrastructure is in place.

QF are apparently very happy with the A330s and the rumours of initial performance shortfalls in the 788s means QF may choose to wait as the savings over the existing fleets are not as significant as planned and certainly not as significant as those achieved by the A380 compared with the early 744s.



717,721/2,732/3/4/5/7/8/9,742/3/4,752/3,762/3,772,W,A310,320,321,332,333,388,DC9,DC10,F28,F100,142,143,E90,CR2,D82/3/4,S
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21534 posts, RR: 60
Reply 17, posted (5 years 6 months 22 hours ago) and read 8349 times:



Quoting Zeke (Reply 15):
"The 787s are now so delayed that we in our contract could walk away from each of those aircraft, the first 15, as they come up on a month-by-month basis over the next year or so, and that could reduce capital expenditure significantly," says Chief Executive Alan Joyce."

And it doesn't hurt them to do it, because with the 100+ total orders and options and secured rights, they still have access to a steady flow of 100 787s on the original schedule, with delay penalty payments from Boeing, and could always place more orders 8-10 years down the line if they truly did ever have plans to take all 100+ to begin with. Which seemed ridiculous at the time and still does today...  Wink



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineBabybus From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (5 years 6 months 22 hours ago) and read 8295 times:

I think airlines expect that the aviation world will not be as boiterous as it has been up to now.

If I was an airline and I had a new fleet on order I'd be looking to cancel too. QF also have the A380's to bed in yet. Not a good time to be taking on another new type.


User currently offlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15747 posts, RR: 27
Reply 19, posted (5 years 6 months 22 hours ago) and read 8252 times:

A deferment could actually help Boeing meet delivery schedules in the long run, so no matter what happens, I doubt that this will be a real killer. I imagine that QF is not the only airline that has to be making these decisions now. This probably has as much or more to do with the economic collapse and lack of credit than the delays to the plane. If the economic meltdown had happened a couple of years ago, we probably would have had this same conversation about the A380.


Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently offlineFlybyguy From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 1801 posts, RR: 1
Reply 20, posted (5 years 6 months 22 hours ago) and read 8173 times:

It seems to me that this is the start of a very, VERY painful trend for Airbus and Boeing. One has to wonder if by next year either manufacturer will deliver anything at all but whitetails to park.


"Are you a pretender... or a thoroughbred?!" - Professor Matt Miller
User currently offlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15747 posts, RR: 27
Reply 21, posted (5 years 6 months 21 hours ago) and read 8148 times:



Quoting Flybyguy (Reply 20):
It seems to me that this is the start of a very, VERY painful trend for Airbus and Boeing. One has to wonder if by next year either manufacturer will deliver anything at all but whitetails to park

I was just thinking that the delays to the 787 may be a blessing in disguise. Airlines would be in much worse shape now if they were making payments on all of these shiny new planes. They delays have given them a little extra bit of liquidity that they desperately need.

Likewise, Boeing would likely be turning out white tail 787s now if it were flying. The delays have saved them from this and possible cancellations will help them push up the schedule for airlines that do have the cash to stay on board with the whole thing. Basically Boeing is occupied now with fixing something most people still want versus building something nobody wants or can afford.



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently offlineTravelhound From Australia, joined May 2008, 938 posts, RR: 12
Reply 22, posted (5 years 6 months 21 hours ago) and read 8130 times:



Quoting BMI727 (Reply 19):
A deferment could actually help Boeing meet delivery schedules in the long run, so no matter what happens, I doubt that this will be a real killer. I imagine that QF is not the only airline that has to be making these decisions now. This probably has as much or more to do with the economic collapse and lack of credit than the delays to the plane. If the economic meltdown had happened a couple of years ago, we probably would have had this same conversation about the A380.

I'd say for many airlines the delay in the 787 has probably been a blessing.


Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 17):
And it doesn't hurt them to do it, because with the 100+ total orders and options and secured rights, they still have access to a steady flow of 100 787s on the original schedule, with delay penalty payments from Boeing, and could always place more orders 8-10 years down the line if they truly did ever have plans to take all 100+ to begin with. Which seemed ridiculous at the time and still does today...

There is a direct need for 51 787's, if they are to replace all of their 767's (29) and A330's (22) with the type. I think another 14 for organic growth and new market growth (considering the capability of the plane) isn't unreasonable going forward. Where the other 40 787's on option would go, I don't know. Maybe Jetstar Pacific, Jetstar Asia and QANTAS long-haul into Europe and some smaller ports in the USA / South America. Still being successful in placing a total of 40 planes for new unchartered markets is a big ask to fulfil.  Smile


User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 23, posted (5 years 6 months 21 hours ago) and read 8088 times:



Quoting Babybus (Reply 18):
If I was an airline and I had a new fleet on order I'd be looking to cancel too. QF also have the A380's to bed in yet. Not a good time to be taking on another new type.

Presumably a part of the calculations is the benefit of 747/380 swaps compared with 767/787 swaps with the creeping improvements in the A332 also playing a part. At least for medium length trips out to ?? Japan, the advantages of the 787 over the new 332s are more marginal than thought at the time of the 787 order(s).


User currently onlineSydscott From Australia, joined Oct 2003, 3078 posts, RR: 20
Reply 24, posted (5 years 6 months 20 hours ago) and read 7816 times:



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 12):
If QF defers, that means other carriers can get their planes sooner, which means Boeing doesn't have to pay them compensation, or not as much.

Or it means that Boeing can slow the program even more and move the delivery schedule around less planes for less carriers in the initial delivery run. That would presumabley be good for both QF and Boeing.

Quoting Smi0006 (Reply 14):
I would be interested in this as well, I know it would be very hard to find but would be curious to see a break down of system wide delays based on aircraft type, thus which aircraft type causes the most delays.
I'm surprised we haven't seen more expansion by QF with the 738 fleet to more pacific and Tasman destinations.

I wouldn't have thought there would be that many delays due to 763's going tech because tghere is spare capacity in the system. The biggest Cityflyer delay aircarft was the 743's which were constantly delayed. They've also just been upgraded so I'd say they're banking on them being around a while yet.

As for more 738's in the Tasman, QF has already said that Jetconnect will get IFE equipped 738's for the Tasman from later this year and will launch that service to MEL. If that's successful, which is a safe assumption really, then they'll expand that fleet to new cities.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 17):
and could always place more orders 8-10 years down the line if they truly did ever have plans to take all 100+ to begin with.



Quoting Travelhound (Reply 22):
There is a direct need for 51 787's, if they are to replace all of their 767's (29) and A330's (22) with the type

And we know that the first 15 were destined for Jetstar replacing or expanding the fleet. That's a net increase of 9 widebodies so there was an ititial need for at least 60 787's to expand JQ and replace all of the rest of the fleet. I'd also expect the final 6 744's not replaced by A380's to be replaced by 787's of some description. So that's at least 66 widebodies. So you can easily see the need for 70 odd aircraft without including further expansion. If QF is serious about the Middle East, Continental Europe and South America it's going to need a whole lot more widebodies than the 70 for replacement and known expansion.

Quoting Baroque (Thread starter):
PRESSURE is building on Qantas to defer deliveries of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner aircraft to avoid having to tap the sharemarket again to keep its investment-grade credit rating.

This is also somewhat a game with QF essentially saying, if they don't cancel part of the order, that they expect the market to recover around when they are delivered. Now that's not a bet the investment analysts are willing to take at the moment so we'll have to see what happens. Certainly it'd be interesting to see QF cancel 15 787's and then it turns out to be just the time that they actually do need them.


25 BestWestern : Unlike all the other stupid bets that Investment analysts have taken over the last 5 years that got us into this trouble in the first place.
26 Travelhound : Yes, I did consider the first 15 going to Jetstar, but was thinking Jetstar may take over some routes flown by QF, so didn't include that in the init
27 Someone83 : Why would anyone defer their 787 orders when Boeing anyway is doing it for them?
28 Post contains links Scbriml : Except it seem that nobody wants to take early 787s. http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...s-amid-weight-growth-concerns.html Boeing will have its w
29 AirNZ : What exactly is "organic growth"?
30 Baroque : It would also be interesting to know what QF would be about to propose in the parallel universe where they had not paid out that special dividend and
31 Stitch : I'm pretty confident NH would take all 20 if they can finance them. They do need planes now and the are going to be forced by the Japanese to operate
32 Alessandro : I wonder if it´s necessary, the B787 are so delayed that it´s not necessary to wait longer.
33 Stitch : Well I highly doubt that QF/JQ are either going to cease operations or not grow their traffic in the future, so eventually they're going to need more
34 RedFlyer : You make it sound as though those early 787's are as desirable as a DC-3. While their performance may not be up to precise expectations as promised,
35 BMI727 : Either they don't want the early overweight airframes or they can't get the money to pay for them at the moment.
36 SunriseValley : There are three different sets of numbers. Firstly those guaranteed in the contracts with the airlines, next, those that were bandied around and have
37 Astuteman : It will be interesting to see whether a 2010 vintage 787-8 has performance FAR ahead of a 2010 vintage A330-200 But on the basis that a 2010 vintage
38 Ikramerica : Oh, I don't doubt QF thinks/thought they could expand like crazy, but like EK and their huge order, I found QF's eyes bigger than it's stomach back t
39 ANstar : The A330's will eventually leave the fleet. Don't forget they also have Jetstar Asia & Jetstar Pacific. I'm sure a few at least will go Pacific's way
40 Scbriml : Not my words, but no less an authority than SUH says: It's supported by the growing number of airlines that seem very keen to defer 787 deliveries so
41 Stitch : But one airline does seem to want them. My money is on NH and or JL. If nothing else, Boeing can offer them at a special price to save the monies need
42 FrmrCAPCADET : I am suspecting that when all is said and done very little in ways of delayed delivery compensation from Boeing to airlines, and very little comensati
43 Sydscott : Amazing how they've changed their tune isn't it! To me investment analysts have only slightly more credibility than ratings agencies do. I heard of a
44 Gemuser : Don't forget VS! Gemuser
45 TN486 : I missed the interview (which program??). Was there anything else significant come out of the interview. If its off topic, and worthy of discussion,
46 Post contains links Sydscott : He was on inside business. The website hasn't updated as yet but when it does you'll be able to watch the whole interview. I had a big night last nig
47 TN486 : Thank You
48 JayinKitsap : So if Qantas doesn't defer, they get: - compensation for late delivery - compensation for being below spec - delivery on a plane that they got a great
49 BMI727 : In an ordinary market this makes perfect sense. The catch is that now credit is hard to come by these days. While I have no doubt that the airline wo
50 RedFlyer : Ah, but perhaps that statement only reflects how much better subsequent-built 787s will be compared to early-built 787s, not how bad early-built 787s
51 Post contains links Travelhound : What ........... You give rating agencies credibility? Sorry for not getting back to your earlier. Just got out of bed. Wiki sais: http://en.wikipedi
52 Stitch : I am sure QF/JQ have the credit already lined up to pay for the planes. Boeing doesn't secure an order with no money down, after all. So it's not an
53 Travelhound : I think there is another aspect to this. If I remember correctly QF's credit rating is currently investment grade rated, which means lower financing
54 Gemuser : I wouldn't be too sure about this. When the B787 order was announced QF said that they would be financed out of cash flow and not debt. While I don't
55 BMI727 : There is a deposit and progress payments made on the plane, but I am almost certain that the final financial arrangements with the banks are not made
56 Ikramerica : Please provide a list of these airlines. And some support of your claims would be appreciated, too. Outside of China, which is not an airline but a g
57 AirNZ : cheers Travelhound! Was certainly curious as I'd never heard the term before, as relating to anything in aviation ect. How come......when they, thems
58 SunriseValley : This is a A.Net assumption not substanciated by any verifiable facts. I am unaware of any published detail of the performance guarantees given by Boe
59 Stitch : But QF/JQ must have to provide some type of security to Boeing that they will be able to pay for the planes when they are delivered. If it is not a f
60 FlyingAY : I'm thinking about the Skybus order of 65 A320s. What did Airbus get out of that and what kind of securities had Skybus paid?
61 BMI727 : Perhaps cars are a bad analogy since the turnaround time on orders is so much shorter than aircraft and the financial arrangements are done with the
62 Travelhound : Yes, I would have thought they would have at least have to give a Bank Guarantee, Letter of Credit, Performance Bond or something of the like. Also,
63 Stitch : If you listen to the folks on the Boeing Factory Tour, it's one-third down at time of order, one-third during actual assembly and one-third on delive
64 Sydscott : We'll just have to agree to disagree then. At the end of the day QF will prove one of us right and one of us wrong. I think they do have the ability
65 Jfk777 : Why wouldn't Jetstar want early 787-8's ? Much has been speculated about early 787-8, too much weight and shorter range are the big two defficiencies.
66 Gemuser : Stitch, I don't know. But I would suggest than when a financially stable 80 or so year old airline, who has been a customer for 50 odd years, who has
67 Travelhound : I think there is more to this than just the payment or ability to pay aspect of the equation. It forms part of the conditions of the contract and thu
68 Sydscott : I'd have thought that QF would have had to put down some sort of deposit on the aircraft and progress payments as milestones in the contract were met
69 Baroque : Which means, according to the calculations of some a.net members that the new delivery A330s can be even more economical in which case why rush into
70 Jbernie : Though unless QF has a decent number of A330s on order they will at some point need extra aircraft and some slightly overweight 787s might be the onl
71 Sydscott : Put skybeds on the 767's and use the 787-8's on domestic routes. Don't forget that QF currently have 2 A33-200's in domestic configuration for trans-
72 Na : I think so too. They are so desparate to replace their early-built 767s that they even taken new 767s still this year. And for many of these frames t
73 AirNZ : But surely using that logic one could easily point to the likes of Singapore, Hong Kong, Dubai and dozens of other locations having a tiny population
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