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PHX-LHR BA Flight Update  
User currently offlineBP1 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 593 posts, RR: 1
Posted (5 years 4 months 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 7470 times:

How is the BA flight at PHX Sky Harbor doing these days? What are the load factors looking like? Does the flight remain sustainable?

It was just under a year ago that there was talk of LH re-entering the PHX market but with IATA reporting significant passenger declines world-wide will we see any new real international service at Phoenix Sky Harbor in the future?

Cheers,
BP1


"First To Fly The A-380" / 26 October 2007 SYD-SIN Inaugural
18 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineLHRjc From Netherlands, joined Apr 2006, 1964 posts, RR: 20
Reply 1, posted (5 years 4 months 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 7438 times:

Well looking at the outbound loads for the next few days it looks pretty full.

28 Mar
BA 289 LHR 14:55 PHX 18:35 744 0 F1 A1 J0 C0 D0 R0 I0 E2 Y4 B0 H0 K0 M0 L0 V0 S0 N0 Q0 0 0
29 Mar
BA 289 LHR 14:35 PHX 17:10 744 0 F1 A1 J0 C0 D0 R0 I0 E0 Y0 B0 H0 K0 M0 L0 V0 S0 N0 Q0 0 0
30 Mar
BA 289 LHR 14:35 PHX 17:10 744 0 F2 A2 J0 C0 D0 R0 I0 E0 Y0 B0 H0 K0 M0 L0 V0 S0 N0 Q0 0 0
31 Mar
BA 289 LHR 14:35 PHX 17:10 744 0 F4 A2 J4 C4 D2 R2 I1 E3 Y0 B0 H0 K0 M0 L0 V0 S0 N0 Q0 0 0



"Our 319's are very reliable. They get fixed very quickly."
User currently offlineAV8AJET From United States of America, joined Sep 2003, 1333 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (5 years 4 months 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 7250 times:

Great news! I've taken this flight 3 times and it was a pretty good performer! I hope this flight stays strong!


"To fly or not to fly there is no question!"
User currently offlineAlaska737 From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 1063 posts, RR: 5
Reply 3, posted (5 years 4 months 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 7224 times:

is it a 777 or 747 right now?

User currently offlineVV701 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 7393 posts, RR: 17
Reply 4, posted (5 years 4 months 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 7207 times:

These days it is difficult to say what is 'good' and what is 'bad'.

However the January passenger figures do not look too shaby to me. According to the British CAA a total of 12,145 passengers flew between LHR-PHX or PHX-LHR in January, down 4 per cent from the January 2008 figure. For comparative purposes the LHR-JFK and JFK-LHR passenger numbers for the same period were down 12 per cent.

The preliminary February numbers are significantly worse. There were 9,863 passengers this February, down 15 per cent from February 2008's figure of 11,582 passengers. However this February had 3.4 per cent less days as 2008 was a leap year. The comparative decline in the preliminary figures for LHR-JFK and JFK and LHR was again significantly higher at 21 per cent.

In making year on year comparisons it is also important to remember that the service is nominally 6 times a week (with no flight on a Wednesday). This is important in comparing January 2008 with January 2009 as last year there were 5 Wednesdays in January but there were only 4 this year. However a further complication is that one of the Wednesdays in January 2008 was 1 January. This is a public holiday in the UK. Whether or not this would have a positive or a negative impact on passenger numbers I have no idea. But if we assume that the impact is zero then we have a situation where, IF NO FLIGHTS WERE CANCELLED, there was one less flight in January 2008 than in January 2009 because of the 5 v 4 Wednesdays.

But I am pretty sure that BA cancelled some flights on this route as part of their capacity reduction programme. I do not think thatt this impacted the PHX service in January. But I believe (but am by no means certain) that in the second half of February and this month BA turned this flight into a five-times-weekly service. So this would have the affect of pushing the load factor up.

Overall I guess the answer may be : "Not good, but not that bad given the economic climate."


User currently offlineAf773atmsp From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 2654 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (5 years 4 months 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 7163 times:



Quoting Alaska737 (Reply 3):

LHR-PHX is a 744. I'm surprised since US has a hub at PHX there are no TATL or Trans-Pacific flights to Star Alliance hubs.



It ain't no normal MD80 its a Super 80!
User currently offlinePanam330 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 2669 posts, RR: 9
Reply 6, posted (5 years 4 months 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 7070 times:

Anyone think that with the decline in traffic, they'll cut the aircraft to a 777 (again) in an effort to boost yields/loads?

User currently offlineVV701 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 7393 posts, RR: 17
Reply 7, posted (5 years 4 months 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 6871 times:



Quoting Panam330 (Reply 6):
Anyone think that with the decline in traffic, they'll cut the aircraft to a 777 (again) in an effort to boost yields/loads?

First the LHR-PHX route has never really been cut to a 772 before. It started as a DC-10 LHR-PHX-SAN service. It was upgraded to a 744 LHR-PHX-SAN flight. Then it was upgraded again to separate 772 LHR-PHX and LHR-SAN flights (and 2 772s flights are clearly an upgrade on a single 744 flight).

Then the 772 LHR-PHX flight was upgraded yet again, this time to a 744 flight.

(The LHR-SAN 772 service was subsequently discontinued. But this was because the service was not sufficiently profitable because the 772 ER could not lift a full load off the relatively short runway at SAN and fly non-stop to London.)

So what does the future hold?

With, for example, LHR-PHX outperforming (in percentage change terms) the LHR-JFK route - see Reply 4 - it seems unlikely that BA would preferentially downgrade their PHX service. And it must also be remembered that BA have a finite number of 772s (although a new one was delivered by Boeing earlier this week and will enter service after a cabin upgrade in a few weeks time and another three frames are scheduled for delivery over the coming months). So BA cannot substitute 772s on 744 routes ad infinitum, partricularly as 'YMMM was written off early last year leaving them a frame short - there is currently no longer a reserve aircraft stationed at LGW.

As I mentioned earlier, I believe that just for a few weeks BA has currently reduced their 6-weekly LHR-PHX 744 flight to 5-weekly. (It will be only for a few weeks because of the "use it or lose it" slot situation at LHR.) So if passenger numbers continue to decline I would expect to see a further period during the summer schedule where there is a reduction in weekly frequency of the 744 service rather than a down grade to a 772.

It seems most unlikely that in the current economic climate any other airline will start to fly PHX-Europe. So in a somewhat perverse way this strengthens BA's position on this route compared to what they might have expected if there had been no credit crunch.

So I think the 744 has a lot going for it on this route. But who knows? In the end it will probably come down to yields and only BA knows how good they are.


User currently offlineTheGMan From United States of America, joined Nov 2008, 652 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (5 years 4 months 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 6669 times:



Quoting Af773atmsp (Reply 5):
LHR-PHX is a 744. I'm surprised since US has a hub at PHX there are no TATL or Trans-Pacific flights to Star Alliance hubs.

No planes with range. The US fleet is still split between east and west, so unless they schedule some PHL based crew to fly something like a PHL-PHX-NRT route then it can be possible. And, it would only be possible with the 767-200ER because the A333 would not make it.


User currently offlineTheginge From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2006, 1132 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (5 years 4 months 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 6333 times:



Quoting VV701 (Reply 7):
First the LHR-PHX route has never really been cut to a 772 before. It started as a DC-10 LHR-PHX-SAN service. It was upgraded to a 744 LHR-PHX-SAN flight. Then it was upgraded again to separate 772 LHR-PHX and LHR-SAN flights (and 2 772s flights are clearly an upgrade on a single 744 flight).

I believe that the BA DC10's operated out of Gatwick. I think the PHX route only moved up to Heathrow in the last 10 years to be operated by the 777 and now the 744.


User currently offlineBA744PHX From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 335 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (5 years 4 months 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 6310 times:



Quoting VV701 (Reply 4):
However the January passenger figures do not look too shaby to me. According to the British CAA a total of 12,145 passengers flew between LHR-PHX or PHX-LHR in January, down 4 per cent from the January 2008 figure. For comparative purposes the LHR-JFK and JFK-LHR passenger numbers for the same period were down 12 per cent.

The preliminary February numbers are significantly worse. There were 9,863 passengers this February, down 15 per cent from February 2008's figure of 11,582 passengers. However this February had 3.4 per cent less days as 2008 was a leap year. The comparative decline in the preliminary figures for LHR-JFK and JFK and LHR was again significantly higher at 21 per cent.

Keep in mind that in Jan 2008 LHR-PHX-LHR operated 6x, this past Jan and Feb 2009 operated 5x so you should take that into account on the passenger load drop.

Also do you have the link to the British CAA for the information you got.

Thanks,


User currently offlineHUYfan From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2001, 1406 posts, RR: 3
Reply 11, posted (5 years 4 months 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 5187 times:

PHX is one of BA's strongest N.Am routes. Yield is good, and they have an effective monopoly on direct PHX-Europe.

I would expect US to start PHX-FRA when sufficient A330-200s arrive, the perfect a/c type for the route. Daily in the summer and 5 weekly in the winter.

Regards

Mike


User currently offlineBA744PHX From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 335 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (5 years 4 months 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 5074 times:



Quoting HUYfan (Reply 11):
PHX is one of BA's strongest N.Am routes. Yield is good, and they have an effective monopoly on direct PHX-Europe.

I would expect US to start PHX-FRA when sufficient A330-200s arrive, the perfect a/c type for the route. Daily in the summer and 5 weekly in the winter.

As much as I would like to believe this I would have to doubt it considering they use a low J config on the B744 they sent to PHX and also operate less then daily.


User currently offlineThegreatRDU From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 2310 posts, RR: 4
Reply 13, posted (5 years 4 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 4854 times:



Quoting HUYfan (Reply 11):
PHX is one of BA's strongest N.Am routes. Yield is good, and they have an effective monopoly on direct PHX-Europe.

I would expect US to start PHX-FRA when sufficient A330-200s arrive, the perfect a/c type for the route. Daily in the summer and 5 weekly in the winter.

I seriously doubt that it is one of BA's strongest North American routes, the flight does not even operate daily.US PHX-FRA is a good bet but when more wide bodies arrive they will go to CLT and PHL. US will try however a TATL and a Trans-Pacific from PHX.



Our Returning Champion
User currently offlineSpeedbird0697 From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2007, 3 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (5 years 4 months 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 4596 times:



Quoting Theginge (Thread starter):
I believe that the BA DC10's operated out of Gatwick. I think the PHX route only moved up to Heathrow in the last 10 years to be operated by the 777 and now the 744.

Yep. BA used DC10s on the route out of Gatwick - I believe an inheritance from the BCal days. It certainly was served by a 744 out of LGW around 98 or 99. My first ever longhaul non-rev flight was on the 744 LGW to SAN via PHX. It was one of the v. rare occasions I got Club World (cradle seats). BA had the code share agreement with HP at that time.


User currently offlineBristolflyer From United Kingdom, joined May 2004, 2290 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (5 years 4 months 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 4276 times:

In my experience (I know of 4 flights in the past month) it has been full in all classes.

Quoting Theginge (Reply 9):
I think the PHX route only moved up to Heathrow in the last 10 years to be operated by the 777 and now the 744.

Correct - it moved to LHR about 10 yrs ago thankfully. As an expat now living in Phoenix use the service a lot, and LHR is an awful lot easierto get to than LGW from the Midlands.



Fortune favours the brave
User currently offlineVV701 From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 7393 posts, RR: 17
Reply 16, posted (5 years 4 months 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 3971 times:



Quoting Theginge (Reply 9):
I believe that the BA DC10's operated out of Gatwick. I think the PHX route only moved up to Heathrow in the last 10 years to be operated by the 777 and now the 744.

tHANKS. Of course you are right. I believe the service was transferred to LHR at the start of the separate 772 flights to PHX and SAN.

Quoting BA744PHX (Reply 10):
Also do you have the link to the British CAA for the information you got.

If you go to

http://www.caa.co.uk/

and enter "airport data XXXX" where "XXXX" is the year in which you are interested you will get a menu of sites offering data for each month in your year of choice plus the full year's data. Once you have hade this selection you will get another menu. Select the table titled "Intl Air Pax Route Analysis". It is a quite large - usually around 3 mB - pdf file.

Alternatively for 2008 data for the full year go straight to:

http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/80/airport...tl_Air_Pax_Route_Analysis_2008.pdf


User currently offlineSan747 From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 4941 posts, RR: 12
Reply 17, posted (5 years 4 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 3697 times:



Quoting VV701 (Reply 16):

tHANKS. Of course you are right. I believe the service was transferred to LHR at the start of the separate 772 flights to PHX and SAN.

PHX might have, but SAN non-stop service began as BA2274/5 from LGW on March 25, 2001. It transitioned to LHR service at some point in 2002.



Scotty doesn't know...
User currently offlineDavescj From United States of America, joined Jun 2007, 2305 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (5 years 4 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 3690 times:



Quoting AV8AJET (Reply 2):
Great news! I've taken this flight 3 times and it was a pretty good performer! I hope this flight stays strong

I've taken this flight also, it is a great service. I was looking in DEC, and is still scheduled.

Quoting BA744PHX (Reply 12):
As much as I would like to believe this I would have to doubt it considering they use a low J config on the B744 they sent to PHX and also operate less then daily.

I think BA is moving to a single J config, no?

As to PHX, remember, lots of biz in PHX and lots of connections to LA and South CA on AA.

I hope they keep the route. I don't see LH re-entering though until markets pick back up in general, but it would make sense with US as a *A hub.

Dave



Can I have a mojito on this flight?
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