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Stocks Crash Due Flu Pandemic.. Expect What?  
User currently offlineSKORD From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2008, 562 posts, RR: 0
Posted (5 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 7234 times:

The BBC World News is reporting that airline stock shares are plummeting due to the Flu Pandemic in Mexico.

Your views??

An over-reaction? A perfect reaction? Or, and excuse to offload Airline shares that are worth very little at the moment.

What can we expect to see in the immediate future for US and Far-Eastern airlines regarding fleets, and of more interest... fares. Stay the same and ride out this (so far, little storm) or panic?

I mention the US (obviously as a Mexican neighbour and their HUGE airline market) but also the Far-east in perticular as the BBC specifically commented on them. Oddly, EU airlines were not mentioned at all.

46 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21531 posts, RR: 59
Reply 1, posted (5 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 7190 times:



Quoting SKORD (Thread starter):
An over-reaction?

Yes. And when they bottom, a good time to buy them.

It's also a question of "despite the fact that this is called the swine flu, is it any more contagious or deadly than any other strain of flu?" I haven't seen reports yes that it is. But it has a nasty name and it's something else to distract us while the governments of the world take more control of industry...



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineSKORD From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2008, 562 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (5 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 7152 times:

Its frontline News in the UK and yet.. only a handfull of cases reported arond the world.

I agree, it has and unpleasant name, and is it a major conspiracy to distract us from the Global Economic Cricis? .......

I think not! But could this unfortunately turn into another "9-11" or SARS Crisis? Is the world so paranoid that things will be blown out of all proportion?


User currently offlineJustPlanes From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 886 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (5 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 7140 times:

It will certainly bring tourism and most travel to Mexico to a halt for now I would think...

[Edited 2009-04-27 00:01:00]

User currently offlineSKORD From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2008, 562 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (5 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 7108 times:



Quoting JustPlanes (Reply 3):
It will certainly bring tourism and most travel to Mexico to a halt for now I would think...

How will it affect US travel though in general? Especially International traffic? (EU and far-eastern?)


User currently offlineDingDong From United States of America, joined Jan 2007, 661 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (5 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 7089 times:



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 1):
Quoting SKORD (Thread starter):
An over-reaction?

Yes.

Granted, I must admit the swine on Wall Street certainly has reason to be concerned since this is regarding swine flu...



DingDong, honey, please answer the doorbell!
User currently offlineMadameConcorde From San Marino, joined Feb 2007, 10898 posts, RR: 37
Reply 6, posted (5 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 7061 times:

Buy Roche stocks! They are the Tamiflu manufacturers. Tamiflu sales will go up like mad so the stocks should follow.
Too bad I don't have money or I would stack up on some Big Pharma stocks. I wonder who will come up with a H1N1 SwineFlu vaccine? They may already have one, only they won't tell us. You can expect shares from that company to take a big hyke too.  Embarrassment



There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21531 posts, RR: 59
Reply 7, posted (5 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 7036 times:

Let me rephrase it: I HOPE it's an overreaction. The number of cases worldwide seems low, considering it's been 2 weeks since it was first "identified." The potential of this kind of flu is to spread quickly and kill millions, but there's also a potential to do nothing. 1976 was one of those overreaction times...


Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4397 posts, RR: 2
Reply 8, posted (5 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 7027 times:

The name swine flew is a great propaganda - first bird flew, now swine flew, next cow flew? The effect on aviation will be short time, since such flew epidemy takes 4 weeks with medicine and a month without. But if an airline with a strong buisiness to Mexico is weak already, this may be the last nail. Good that Air Comet doesn't fly to Mexico.

User currently offlineFlood From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 1381 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (5 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 6975 times:

It's an understandable precautionary reaction in my opinion. The virus has incredible potential and at this point it's too early to tell exactly how the virus will continue to spread and at what pace, or if can be quickly contained.

Personally, I'd also much rather have the governments and health agencies blow this thing out of proportion and take every necessary measure to combat the virus in its early stages, rather than have them sitting on their hands and being too slow to react.

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 8):
first bird flew, now swine flew

If the virus enables the piggies to fly, then I'm off to book my flight to Mexico  Smile


User currently offlineFlying Belgian From Belgium, joined Jun 2001, 2392 posts, RR: 9
Reply 10, posted (5 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 6916 times:
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The focus is on Mexico, but not for long.

It'll spread all around the world within a few days.

Notwithstanding all this, I sincerely hope it won't affect airline business too seriously.


FB.



Life is great at 41.000 feet...
User currently offlineEnginebird From United States of America, joined May 2007, 342 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (5 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 6878 times:

I am pretty sure that it won't be long before there will be 'fever scanners' for arriving passengers in the US, like the ones that were installed in Japan during the bird-flu 'crisis' (which are still there, by the way). -- Airlines flying to Mexico will take a considerable hit, as will the tourism industry in Mexico. Not a good time to have shares of companies involved with either.

User currently offlineLegacytravel From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 1067 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (5 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 6248 times:

There have been at least 9 deadly cases reported in Mexico. No deaths here in the US but cases in at least 9 state and Canada.

I am not sure that it will cause a pandemic. How long before someone shouts biologocial terrorism?

From what I have heard this virus is parts of different swine flu and bird flu wrapped into one package.

Mark in MKE



I love the smell of Jet fuel in the Morning
User currently offlineBralo20 From Belgium, joined May 2008, 625 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (5 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 6126 times:



Quoting Legacytravel (Reply 12):
There have been at least 9 deadly cases reported in Mexico. No deaths here in the US but cases in at least 9 state and Canada.

+100 deaths in Mexico, wherefrom at least 18 confirmed to H1N1.
No casultaties in th reast of the world.

Quote:
I am not sure that it will cause a pandemic. How long before someone shouts biologocial terrorism?

Won't happen since it's "just" a flu which was reacted on to late. If treated well it doesn't have a mortality rate either. And that was the problem... Reacted to late and no good treatment.

Quote:
From what I have heard this virus is parts of different swine flu and bird flu wrapped into one package.

Mark in MKE

It's actually a variant of the known H1N1 string which is originally a bird flew and also from the same origin as the famous Spanish Flue which killed over 40 million people back in 1918/1919.

In the end it's not more lethal than a regular flu...


User currently offlineKhobar From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 2379 posts, RR: 3
Reply 14, posted (5 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 6053 times:



Quoting Legacytravel (Reply 12):
There have been at least 9 deadly cases reported in Mexico. No deaths here in the US but cases in at least 9 state and Canada.

It's okay. Stocks are rebounding after Mr. Obama said there was no cause for alarm.

"President Obama said Monday that the swine flu outbreak is a "cause for concern and requires a heightened state of alert," but is not a "cause for alarm."
http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/27/swine.flu/index.html


User currently offlineBralo20 From Belgium, joined May 2008, 625 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (5 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 5983 times:



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 1):
It's also a question of "despite the fact that this is called the swine flu, is it any more contagious or deadly than any other strain of flu?" I haven't seen reports yes that it is. But it has a nasty name and it's something else to distract us while the governments of the world take more control of industry...

The answer is yes and no. Yes because it can cause death by healty people while regular flu causes mostly death by older and weaker people.

No because it's cureable when noticed in time.

At this moment it is not more dangerous then a "regular" flu when noticed in time. AFAIK it has a mortality rate of 0% when treatment is started in time.

And that is actually the problem now. It was discovered to late which let to the spread of the strain and the dying of some people who didn't get treatment in time.

But the question is really will the virus mutate? If so then it can become more dangerous. If not then it will probably be over soon.


User currently offlineYULWinterSkies From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 2179 posts, RR: 5
Reply 16, posted (5 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 5984 times:



Quoting SKORD (Reply 2):
Is the world so paranoid that things will be blown out of all proportion?

Likely.

Quoting Flood (Reply 9):
Personally, I'd also much rather have the governments and health agencies blow this thing out of proportion and take every necessary measure to combat the virus in its early stages, rather than have them sitting on their hands and being too slow to react.

Me too. Yet, I'd rather see the media being more silent on the topic. Let health agencies do their job and the world will be all right...



When I doubt... go running!
User currently offlineEnilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7192 posts, RR: 13
Reply 17, posted (5 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 5815 times:



Quoting SKORD (Reply 2):
is it a major conspiracy to distract us from the Global Economic Cricis?

Where is Fox Mulder when you need him? Maybe it's to distract us from an alien landing.  Smile


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11438 posts, RR: 58
Reply 18, posted (5 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 5522 times:
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Quoting SKORD (Reply 4):
How will it affect US travel though in general? Especially International traffic? (EU and far-eastern?)

In my view, overreaction lead to the current situation. This flu is not so dangerous and in fact, antivirals are effective against it. It's just a matter of 1 or 2 weeks in order to people got the right information about.
But during the next 2 weeks, Mexico will suffer a lot in terms of reduction of air demand.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineNQYGuy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (5 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 5195 times:

Great.. booked on holiday to go to HK in July.

My Dad is already fannying with the travel insurance.. making sure its covered etc.

Though if he sold doom and gloom, he'd probably be no1 salesperson.. ever. Big grin


User currently offlineEghansen From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (5 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 5156 times:



Quoting Enginebird (Reply 11):
I am pretty sure that it won't be long before there will be 'fever scanners' for arriving passengers in the US, like the ones that were installed in Japan during the bird-flu 'crisis' (which are still there, by the way).

Can't see what good that would do. The vast majority of people cross the border on foot, by car and truck. We have a 2000 mile land border with Mexico.


User currently offlineBralo20 From Belgium, joined May 2008, 625 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (5 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 4706 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 18):
In my view, overreaction lead to the current situation. This flu is not so dangerous and in fact, antivirals are effective against it. It's just a matter of 1 or 2 weeks in order to people got the right information about.
But during the next 2 weeks, Mexico will suffer a lot in terms of reduction of air demand.

For sure it's overreaction at this point. The new swine flu is not more dangerous then a regular flu... Symptoms of flu can be treatend to make sure that a person suffering that particular infection will survive and the mortality rate will become 0%

But, and there is always a but in situations like this, the nature of this virus and the late detection caused that the virus could have been spread worldwide. Due to the rather long incubation periode it's obvious that it can spread throughout the globe without being noticed. As long as there is proper treatment there isn't a real problem for now. But chances does exist that this particular virus will mutate into another new variant which can be more agressive and maybe not so easy to contain.

We'll all have to wait what the result will be in the end but I think it's won't be that serious. But better to prevent than to heal  Wink


User currently offlineEnginebird From United States of America, joined May 2007, 342 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (5 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 4664 times:



Quoting Eghansen (Reply 20):
Can't see what good that would do. The vast majority of people cross the border on foot, by car and truck. We have a 2000 mile land border with Mexico.

Air traffic can carry the virus much faster in areas not adjacent to the border. There would be good reasons to do it and I am sure it will happen. Japan has already started to scan arriving passengers.


User currently offlineContrails From United States of America, joined Oct 2000, 1833 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (5 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 4236 times:

I think this will pass, if everyone will just stay CALM.

The bureaucrats going on TV yesterday to declare a "national health emergency", while stating at the same time that there's no reason to be concerned, was pretty stupid, imo.

If you recall, we went through this a few years ago with the "bird flu"/avian flu", or whatever else it was called. There were a few cases, then a lot of media attention, then it died down. That, imo, is what we have here - 40 cases in the US (out of 300,000,000 + people), and some more cases in Mexico. It's hardly an epidemic, much less a pandemic.

Yes, a few flights may get canceled, and a few flights may get quarantined, but in a few weeks we should have forgotten about this.

I hope.



Flying Colors Forever!
User currently offlineRichierich From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 4263 posts, RR: 6
Reply 24, posted (5 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 4115 times:



Quoting Contrails (Reply 23):
The bureaucrats going on TV yesterday to declare a "national health emergency", while stating at the same time that there's no reason to be concerned, was pretty stupid, imo.

I couldn't agree more.
Airline stocks always tank at the threat of an outbreak, and as far as outbreaks go this one doesn't seem too severe yet. I'm not saying 100+ deaths isn't serious but in the scheme of things it is relatively small.

From what I read, various flu medicines (like Tamiflu) have proven to be effective against this particular swine flu. However there are always parts of the world (like Mexico) where such medicines are not readily available at the local Duane Reade. And of course anybody with reduced immune functions, as well as the elderly and very young, should take extra precautions but there is no reason to think this will become a major world epidemic.

Hopefully it will pass and - don't worry - most airlines will rebound in their stock prices. It may take weeks and not days but I can't believe this is going to turn into a bird-flu or anthrax frenzy right now.



None shall pass!!!!
25 Ikramerica : The reason there is so much "concern" is that each year, a cocktail of flu antigens most likely to impact the world is combined into the vaccine for
26 Floorrunner : From what I understand from local news reports in Ohio is this. Remember I am not an expert. The cases that have been reported in the US have been mi
27 Ikramerica : Yes, but the question still remains, unanswered, as to why this is any worse than any outbreak of any flu? All flus are deadly. Every year, flus kill
28 TWAL1011727 : I'm sorry to be nit-picky but I did get a good chuckle imagining swines and cows flying. "Cow 1, caution wake turbulence departing swine ahead, clear
29 Socalfive : Don't you find it interesting that this is the first flu epidemic that's hitting us outside of flu season? I sure do.
30 Skyfellow : It may not be overwhelming so far, but 150 or so individuals infected with this strain of the flu in Mexico are dead as we speak. Healthy and primari
31 Mah584jr : Airline stocks are a risky trade to begin with and should not be in anyone's long term portfolio. This swine flu, while it could cause a few cancellat
32 NZ107 : The 6pm news down here reported that the major US airlines have already suffered a 16% decrease in something like bookings since Saturday. I believe
33 Post contains links Lightsaber : Sadly, the greatest damage might be the panic. Sigh... but I bet its selling whatever is being advertised on the NEWS channels. Hey, I bet many a swi
34 Magyar : Pandemic??? Is it not a name for world-wide epidemic. It is not yet there and let's hope it never gets there! Talking about over-reaction.
35 413x3 : well "imo" youre wrong. that declaration of emergency was for specific reasons. it allowed more money and personnel to be sent to deal with it so it
36 Lightsaber : Thankfully, the emergency stockpiles built up in the USA for the Avian flu are still within their experation dates. How many other countries have *la
37 Alianza : Lipe, tamaflu helps relieve the symptoms, it is not a cure. Articles of this are online. Also, antibiotic drugs are for bacterial sickness, not for v
38 LipeGIG : Alianza you're right but just understand that if you fight the bacteria, you would avoid the flu to continue it's path at least reducing it's contagi
39 RFields5421 : Influenza - the flu - is a viral disease, not caused by bacteria. Though you are correct, fighting the spread of the virus is vital with barrier and
40 Alianza : Wow. How many of those victims were in the U.S. ?
41 RFields5421 : No one really knows - estimates are 28% of the US population became ill and over a half million to 675,000 died. Britian suffered a quarter million d
42 Lightsaber : Hence the worry. Note: I think the hype is far worse than the fact. We have anti-virals that work being distributed, more being made, and IV's. This
43 Bucky707 : The number of cases is just not that high and as others have pointed out, the symptoms are just not that bad. Thousands die every year from regular fl
44 Skyfellow : It is easy to speak with wisdom after more facts are known. Your statement is not entirely fair. Our government had to take their precautions until m
45 MMEPHX : I think we're looking at a complete over-reaction to the whole event. Some perspective; 39,000 people die in the US alone each year from regular flu.
46 Babybus : And all those states that border Mexico. I certainly wouldn't run the risk with my family. Regarding shares there is always going to be convenient ex
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