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Next New A380 Customer?  
User currently offlineCHRISBA777ER From UK - England, joined Mar 2001, 5964 posts, RR: 62
Posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 6954 times:

In these troubled times it is always good to look to the future.

I don't think we'll see too many new orders for the A380 in the next two years or so, but once the financial markets pick up and people stop worrying about pig flu etc, then the big bird will certainly see a new raft of orders.

I was just wondering who might pick some up - who is going to be the next new customer for the A380?

Are we going to see very few new customers for the A380 now, but then a new batch of orders for the A389 when it is released? Who is going to wait, and who is going to go with the current A388?

Here's my thoughts:

AI - bound to eventually. I think they could do very well with a 500 seat A388 and even better with a 650 seat A389. I think they may wait for the A389 though.

MU - possible, even if its only for the LAX-PVG and PVG-PEK routes.

PK - Probably would take the A388 now if it wasnt for the economic problems in the country. It would offer them hugely compelling economics to Europe. I think they are very likely customers in the next ten years or so.

IB - There is a school of thought that suggests that IB would have done so already had they wanted the A380, but I am not sure i buy that. I think once the BA negotiations are done and dusted, we'll see a small order for A388s - they could use them already to places like MEX, EZE and BOG.

NH - A strange one. I was led to believe their order was all signed and sealed, only for them to back out at the last minute. Even so, they will likely order it once their economy picks up. Not for domestic Japanese use but for TransPac and to Europe.

JL - If NH order it, might JL look at it as well? I think their new Suites product is quite telling - taking more seats out of your 77Ws? All well and good now, but are they are going to need something bigger once traffic picks up? Its A388 vs the almost stillborn 748i if so, and JL are going to find it very hard to go for the Boeing given the Airbus' advantages.

SA)">UA - The best chance for a North American operator, for me. They have lots of elderly 744s that they fill to the brim across the Pacific. No question the A388 would fit nicely into that role - similar trip costs to the 744s but a vastly better customer experience and a huge advantage in capacity to sell. Again, it will come down to 748i vs A388 but SA)">UA have a big Airbus fleet and I am sure that if they need a VLA, they will go A380.

CX - Likely to be the first or amongst the first in line for the A389.

SA - Possibly, but not for a long time, and probably only for the US non-stop routes.

TK - Could happen sooner than people think. They are massively on the increase and could well grow a VLA requirement inside the next ten years.

DL - Very unlikely, as they just do not buy Airbuses at DL, even with the NW connection. Its Boeing or nothing at DL - end of.

OZ - Much mooted VLA tender in mid-2008 came to very little, but we have to assume that they are thinking long-term. They dont need the A380 now, but may well do by 2014 or so, so an order may not be too far away.

NZ - very unlikely in the next five years, but looking beyond, NZ may look at some for its LAX and LHR routes.

JJ - Very likely in the next ten years.

9W - if they merge with AI then it is nailed on they'll buy it, for me.

Transaero - maybe the first of the SQ A388s once their A389s start to arrive perhaps? Maybe before?

Philippines - best CASM on the market in a very low yield home market. They could do very well with a couple, for sure.

Air Asia - Surely the best/most efficient way of flying LoCo pax from Europe to KUL. They have the cash as well.

AV - Could do very well with a couple to do JFK and MAD - BOG.

LY - There are a load of routes that LY could use an A388 very well on. Problem is, it is made in Europe and so they would never get approval to buy it, even though the airline is nominally "private" - there would still be hell to pay if they chose it over the Boeing.

CA - Absolutely guaranteed to buy it at some stage.

GF - in the next ten years, maybe. Not now.

ARIK - They seem to think they need the 748i, so why not the A388? They have the money and have not firmed their 748i MoUs, so they could switch to the A388. Far too much plane for them, but stranger things have happened.

GA - No money to pay for them, but an ideal high density workhorse for their low-yielding markets - they could make a profit flying to CGK non-stop from Europe with them as well.

Anyone I've missed?


What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
25 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineMIgAiR54 From Spain, joined Jun 2007, 1650 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 6871 times:

I agree with you in many of them, but in a far future all of them..

IB.....................Don´t think so, but they told never to the A346 because the RR engines and they have some of them.


Why not AR?? for routes to USA and Spain?? maybe not becuase financial problems.

Or Malysia Airlines???


I think we´ll see a new order this year in LeBourget Air Show.........


User currently offlineGlareskin From Netherlands, joined Jun 2005, 1303 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 6802 times:



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
JJ - Very likely in the next ten years.

Didn't JJ ordered 1 or 2 allready?

Quoting MIgAiR54 (Reply 1):
Why not AR??

And didn't AR (Grupo Marsans)?



There's still a long way to go before all the alliances deserve a star...
User currently offlineMIgAiR54 From Spain, joined Jun 2007, 1650 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 6755 times:



Quoting Glareskin (Reply 2):
And didn't AR (Grupo Marsans)?

They áre not part of the grope now, And they told Marsans that they don´t want them because financial problems, they are in talks about the narrow body Airbus order that marsans placed for them two years ago.

I undestand that a fleet of 2 is not profitable, it must be at least 5 of them to use them in a regular basis in flight to Spain or USA.


User currently offlineTimboflier215 From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 1322 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 6755 times:

Grupo Marsans have placed an order, but IIRC it isn't firm (and may never be, if you listen to some on here).

CX have pretty much said to Airbus: you build it (the A389), we'll buy it. But they won't go for the A388 I don't think.

Many of the rest in the list above will, I think, order the A380 in one form or another in the next decade or so. The question is whether it will be in enough numbers for Airbus to break even or turn a profit. I would expect to see follow on orders, certainly from BA and SQ at least, once the economy starts to pick up, although they might wait for the A389 too.

All in all, a pretty comprehensive list, Chris! I can't think of any you have missed, although the Grupo Marsans LOI/ order was a complete surprise, at least to me, so you never know....Ryanair maybe?!


User currently offlineHB-IWC From Greece, joined Sep 2000, 4496 posts, RR: 72
Reply 5, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 6737 times:



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
GA - No money to pay for them, but an ideal high density workhorse for their low-yielding markets - they could make a profit flying to CGK non-stop from Europe with them as well.

This is out of the question, and not because of the financial issues, but because, as it is, the current B744s are already too large for the airline, even on the busy CGK JED route. The only time GA could conceivably fill an A380 is during the Hajj, and I cannot imagine that the airline would ever buy the aircraft for this purpose, when so many more cost effective options are available.


User currently offlineTimboflier215 From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 1322 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 6714 times:



Quoting HB-IWC (Reply 5):
The only time GA could conceivably fill an A380 is during the Hajj, and I cannot imagine that the airline would ever buy the aircraft for this purpose, when so many more cost effective options are available.

I think that 2nd hand A380s may well become the Hajj operators plane of choice in, say, 20 years time!


User currently offlineSancho99504 From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 569 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 6655 times:

I think you'll see UA order the A350 before the A380. But one never knows with them. And I wouldn't discount DL just yet. Anderson is running the show now and he may take an order for the A350 as well. I don't see LY taking anything not Boeing in the VLA market. Also, I think you're spot on about IB, NH, and AI. I don't think the Pakistani government can keep PK afloat that long, let alone be able to buy A380's. The dire economic situation at PK just doesn't make sense to buy A380's for a failing company. Its like putting new paint on a rotted, termite infested house and trying to sell it as something good. Doesn't make any sense at all to me.


kill 'em all and let God sort 'em out-USMC
User currently onlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17322 posts, RR: 46
Reply 8, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 6600 times:



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
Next New A380 Customer?

Jumbo Hostel
http://www.jumbohostel.com/
 duck 



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineTavong From Colombia, joined Jul 2001, 835 posts, RR: 4
Reply 9, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 6524 times:



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
AV - Could do very well with a couple to do JFK and MAD - BOG.

BOG-JFK is being downgraded to A319 and DL is pulling out of the route. MAD Could be a more or less viable route but i really don´t think AV or IB can fill the A380 in the way needed to make it profitable. I really don´t think that we will see the A380 in BOG.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
JJ - Very likely in the next ten years.

It´s possible, but for this time i think that they will stick with the 77W. But if there is anyone that could use an A380 in southamerica i agree that is TAM.

Gus
SKBO



Colombian coffee, the best...take a cup and you will see how delicious it is.
User currently offlineTitus95 From France, joined Feb 2009, 97 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 6450 times:
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I think the A380 order which will be announced at Le Bourget Air show , will be the confirmation of the Air Austral order.

JL said recently that the customer portfolio he already has is large enough to break even , as he estimates that these customers will operate about 50 units each in the future , say in the 10 or 20 years to come.I guess that will be the case for Air France , BAW , Lufthansa , SIA and of course EK.


User currently onlineOldAeroGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 3476 posts, RR: 67
Reply 11, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 6450 times:



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
Philippines - best CASM on the market in a very low yield home market. They could do very well with a couple, for sure.

Not enough A380 lower lobe volume for the Philippines overseas customer to support a high passenger count to get a low CASM.

Passenger + baggage allowance is on the order of 150 kg due to numerous cardboard boxes carrying appliances purchased overseas plus gifts for friends and family.

That's one of the reasons the lower lobe volume of the 773ER worked well for them.



Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
User currently offline474218 From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 6340 posts, RR: 9
Reply 12, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 5968 times:



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
then the big bird will certainly see a new raft of orders.

You say "a new raft of orders" like there was "a previous raft" of orders?


User currently offlineER757 From Cayman Islands, joined May 2005, 2489 posts, RR: 7
Reply 13, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 5833 times:

AI, CX, CA - yes, and in that order IMO
NH - maybe, thought they'd have ordered already
JL - as you say, if NH dives into the pool, JL will probably follow
SA)">UA - I still think if they go VLA at all, it will be the 748i
SA)">DL - same as SA)">UA, but probably less likely go go larger than 777 in future orders
IB - maybe
LY, SA, OZ - long shot
TK - I have no idea, I'll defer to your expertize on that one
PK, PI, GF - I seriously doubt it.


User currently offlineBrilondon From Canada, joined Aug 2005, 4114 posts, RR: 1
Reply 14, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 5796 times:



Quoting 474218 (Reply 12):
You say "a new raft of orders" like there was "a previous raft" of orders?

A very very small raft. Big grin

With the future so uncertain at this time I think we should be talking more about who may back out of their order as I see more of those then any new airline orders this year or next, for both Boeing and Airbus.

I don't really like being so negative but for the near term I believe that it will be more of cancellation or deferments then of new orders.



Rush for ever; Yankees all the way!!
User currently offlineKbdude From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 154 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 5775 times:



Quoting Titus95 (Reply 10):
JL said recently that the customer portfolio he already has is large enough to break even , as he estimates that these customers will operate about 50 units each in the future

Did JL comment on what that "break even" number was? last i heard it was ~450 units.

That means they need to sell around 250 additional:

LH +40
AF +40
BA +40
EK +30
ILFC +30
QF +30
________
Total +210


KE +20
QR +20
EY +20
CZ +20
MH +10
TG +10
IT +10
_________
Total +110

Seems easy........ I guess JL is right.....A380 break even will happen with additional order from the existing customer list.

Now you figure AI, CX, IB, CA, TK & UA will definitely order some at some point.....those will be pure profit


User currently offlineScottB From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6707 posts, RR: 32
Reply 16, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 5623 times:



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
AI - bound to eventually.

I'm not convinced for a couple of reasons. I do understand that India is a very large potential market, but EK and the other Gulf carriers seem intent on capturing traffic flows to and from the subcontinent -- and that would cover PK and 9W was well. Moreover, I believe there would need to be significant improvements in infrastructure before the major Indian airports would be suitable as connecting hubs -- especially for international-to-domestic (and vice versa) connections.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
NH - A strange one. I was led to believe their order was all signed and sealed, only for them to back out at the last minute. Even so, they will likely order it once their economy picks up. Not for domestic Japanese use but for TransPac and to Europe.

JL - If NH order it, might JL look at it as well?

Well, the major issue regarding the Japanese market is that the population of Japan is shrinking, and the potential for growth is limited given that the population is already quite wealthy. The Japanese government is also very patient, and the full build-out of NRT to three runways will eventually happen, meaning that capacity constraints there will be less troublesome.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
UA - The best chance for a North American operator, for me. They have lots of elderly 744s that they fill to the brim across the Pacific.

But liberalization of air service agreements means more competition across the Pacific, so it is becoming more difficult to fill those jumbo jets.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
DL - Very unlikely, as they just do not buy Airbuses at DL, even with the NW connection.

Not buying Airbuses isn't the issue; they just don't have enough routes that are dense enough. Since they are in a transatlantic joint venture with AF/KL, any transatlantic routes that need the capacity of an A380 can be operated by AF.


User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 17, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 5599 times:



Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 11):
Passenger + baggage allowance is on the order of 150 kg due to numerous cardboard boxes carrying appliances purchased overseas plus gifts for friends and family.

If you "go light" on the "gifts for family and friends countries" you could add (subtract) India, Indonesia and perhaps China, although taking gifts to China these days must be like coals to Newcastle but then again, Newcastle England (well Middlesborough) does import coal now. Maybe a package deal of one A388 with a freighter to tag along behind.  duck 

So who knows in the end.  shy 


User currently offlineBrilondon From Canada, joined Aug 2005, 4114 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 4997 times:



Quoting Baroque (Reply 17):
If you "go light" on the "gifts for family and friends countries" you could add (subtract) India, Indonesia and perhaps China, although taking gifts to China these days must be like coals to Newcastle but then again, Newcastle England (well Middlesborough) does import coal now. Maybe a package deal of one A388 with a freighter to tag along behind.

So who knows in the end.

I would think that they would use the A380F for the extra luggage and an a 380 for pax.

Quoting Sancho99504 (Reply 7):
I think you'll see UA order the A350 before the A380. But one never knows with them. And I wouldn't discount DL just yet.

I think that you will see no orders from UA except for maybe smaller twins for domestic routes if they don't go bankrupt in the near future.

Quoting Sancho99504 (Reply 7):
Anderson is running the show now and he may take an order for the A350 as well.

Anderson is running the show? Is this a one man show? What evidence that DL would consider Airbus a they only have operated the A310 which if memory serves correctly they weren't too happy with



Rush for ever; Yankees all the way!!
User currently offlineManfredj From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 1132 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 4798 times:



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
AI - bound to eventually



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
MU - possible



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
PK - Probably



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
JL - If NH order it, might JL look at it as well



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
SA)">UA - The best chance for a North American operator,



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
CX - Likely to be the first or amongst the first in line for the A389



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
SA - Possibly



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
TK - Could happen sooner than people think.



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
JJ - Very likely



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
AV - Could do very well with a couple

CHRIS, I'm not trying to be a pessimist, but this seems to be more a wish list than one of any significance. There are so many more variables than needing something bigger to reduce costs and offer lower seat costs. Many of these markets are already saturated, JFK/Heathrow, etc. A 380 is a big undertaking for some of these carriers and the risk/reward is more of a risk if you ask me.

Trust me, I'd love to see some of these airlines consider a 380, because that would mean the 748 would be considered as well. The 773 has killed many VLA orders for the exact reasons mentioned above, the risk is much less. Is it possible the 380 and the 757 have more in common than we think? The 757 is just coming into its own, finding its nitch 25 years after its creation? Is the 380 likely to come into its own in ten years time? That's where my money is on.

The Oriental carriers are the VLA's biggest chance of survival. JAL/CATHAY/ANA/AIR CHINA



757: The last of the best
User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4384 posts, RR: 2
Reply 20, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 4742 times:

Why don't you count on Aeroflot? They slowly get their stuff together, the huge Russian market concentrates, and they want to get back back to where they were 20 years ago, the world biggest airline. I do see Aeroflot A380s to come.

User currently offlineTK787 From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 4374 posts, RR: 12
Reply 21, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 4000 times:



Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Thread starter):
TK - Could happen sooner than people think. They are massively on the increase and could well grow a VLA requirement inside the next ten years.



Quoting Kbdude (Reply 15):
Now you figure AI, CX, IB, CA, TK & UA will definitely order some at some point.....those will be pure profit

I always thought 773ER was too big for TK, but what do I know. TK has 3 leased now, and 5 orders (?). It is still possible for TK to order few 380s with the much delayed 787/350 order. I think TK could receive 380s earlier than 350s.


User currently offlineVirginblue4 From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2008, 902 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 3896 times:



Quoting MIgAiR54 (Reply 1):
Or Malysia Airlines???

They already have 6 on order.

Jordan



The amazing tale of flight.
User currently offlineCarls From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 522 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 2933 times:



Quoting Timboflier215 (Reply 4):
Many of the rest in the list above will, I think, order the A380 in one form or another in the next decade or so. The question is whether it will be in enough numbers for Airbus to break even or turn a profit. I would expect to see follow on orders, certainly from BA and SQ at least, once the economy starts to pick up, although they might wait for the A389 too.

I have the feeling that many here at A.net wants the A380 program to be profitable in the next two years.

This is a long term business, it is not common that an airliner like the 787 or the A350 gets 900 or 500 orders before first fly. Companies look for revenue in long term. I have no doubt that the A380 will be profitable, obviously not in the first three years, it might be a little be more than planned, but in 15 years it will be a profitable one. Just like the 777, A330/A340, 747, 767, 731/2/3/4/5/6/7/8/9, A318/19/20/21 among others. It is a matter of time.


User currently offlineJtdieffen From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 179 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 2710 times:



Quoting Carls (Reply 23):
This is a long term business, it is not common that an airliner like the 787 or the A350 gets 900 or 500 orders before first fly. Companies look for revenue in long term. I have no doubt that the A380 will be profitable, obviously not in the first three years, it might be a little be more than planned, but in 15 years it will be a profitable one. Just like the 777, A330/A340, 747, 767, 731/2/3/4/5/6/7/8/9, A318/19/20/21 among others. It is a matter of time.

I think part of the point, though, is that it's not two years in, it's actaully nine years in. The A380 has been on offer for nearly a decade. If it's profitable in 15 years, then it will have taken 25 years to turn a profit. At that time, if the conditions warrant a VLA, then Boeing will likely have an all-new design on offer, which will make the A380 the older, less appealing option. While I think it's a great plane and will do relatively well, long-term, what this all really points to is that Airbus was very premature in their decision to produce this plane.



Regards! JDief
User currently offlineTimboflier215 From United Kingdom, joined May 2005, 1322 posts, RR: 1
Reply 25, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 2670 times:



Quoting Kbdude (Reply 15):
AF +40

AF has a B744 fleet of 13 total. With 12 A380s already on order, where would they put the other 40? I could see BA ordering quite a few more, though I doubt that TG and MH will order another 10 each, there has been plenty of speculation on here that they will both cancel all their A380 order outright!


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