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Will WN Start DEN-Northeast Flights?  
User currently onlineUSAirALB From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 3172 posts, RR: 2
Posted (5 years 7 months 2 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 5565 times:

ALB/PVD/BUF/BDL/MHT all could support DEN service. ALB has 162 daily pax, BDL has 345, BUF has 147, MHT has 188, and PVD has 140.

I can hardly believe that ALB has more passengers than BUF and PVD.

WN flies RDU...so maybe they will start the above routes.

On a side note, US has discontinued PHX-BDL and no one flies ALB-PHX. MHT/PVD/BUF all fly the route, ALB could also support the route, we have 141 daily pax.

If WN starts all of the above routes, it would give ALB/BUF/PVD/BDL/MHT nonstop flights to 3 key gateways of the west coast.


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36 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently onlineUSAirALB From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 3172 posts, RR: 2
Reply 1, posted (5 years 7 months 2 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 5523 times:

I'm also curious to why Frontier failed at BDL. Were they just having problems within the airline, and had to cancel some routes?


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User currently offlineLoneStarMike From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 3867 posts, RR: 34
Reply 2, posted (5 years 7 months 2 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 5429 times:



Quoting USAirALB (Thread starter):
ALB/PVD/BUF/BDL/MHT all could support DEN service. ALB has 162 daily pax, BDL has 345, BUF has 147, MHT has 188, and PVD has 140.

Something tells me you are looking at the O&D statistics from Q2 2008. DOT recently released Q3 2008 info

Consumer Airfare Report (see Table 6)

ALB-DEN - 183 daily pax (about 92 per day each way)
BUF-DEN = 169 daily pax (about 85 per day each way)
MHT-DEN - 174 daily pax (about 87 per day each way)
BDL-DEN - 391 daily pax (about 196 per day each way) ....

...and that was back when F9 was still flying the route, and even then, F9 only had 26% of the market or about 102 daily pax (51 per day each way.) I'm not sure how many other seats were filled by passengers connecting in DEN to other places.

Quoting USAirALB (Thread starter):
WN flies RDU...so maybe they will start the above routes.

RDU-DEN is a stronger market with 468 daily pax (about 234 per day each way)

Quoting USAirALB (Thread starter):
On a side note, US has discontinued PHX-BDL and no one flies ALB-PHX. MHT/PVD/BUF all fly the route, ALB could also support the route, we have 141 daily pax.

These are the statistics from Q3 2008

ALB-PHX - 119 daily pax (about 60 per day each way)
BUF-PHX - 272 daily pax (about 136 per day each way)
MHT-DEN - 210 daily pax (about 105 per day each way)
PVD-PHX - 265 daily pax (about 133 per day each way.)

I think ALB-DEN would have to grow to at least 200 daily pax (100 per day each way) before WN would consider adding a nonstop flight in that market.

I'm not trying to say it would never happen, but I don't think it will be any time soon - especially since the economy is worse now than it was during Q3 2008.

LoneStarMike


User currently onlineUSAirALB From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 3172 posts, RR: 2
Reply 3, posted (5 years 7 months 2 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 5410 times:



Quoting LoneStarMike (Reply 2):
I think ALB-DEN would have to grow to at least 200 daily pax (100 per day each way) before WN would consider

Really, that much? I mean both PHX and DEN could be used as connecting points, so you can add about 20% to those passengers.

ALB-FLL doesn't have 200 pax, in fact it has the same pax number of DEN, 183



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User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25690 posts, RR: 85
Reply 4, posted (5 years 7 months 2 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 5400 times:
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Quoting LoneStarMike (Reply 2):
I'm not sure how many other seats were filled by passengers connecting in DEN to other places.

Obviously, quite a lot, because in the summer months Frontier was getting extremely good loads - they fell of a cliff in the off-season months.

Also to remember that it was cancelled when oil was going through the roof. Even so, Frontier retained the route until September 2008, in order to get the summer business.

It is one of the routes that some of us think will come back, probably next year.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently onlineUSAirALB From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 3172 posts, RR: 2
Reply 5, posted (5 years 7 months 2 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 5387 times:



Quoting Mariner (Reply 4):
It is one of the routes that some of us think will come back, probably next year.

Yea..I'd like BDL-LAX and BDL-SLC to come back.

Remember when DL flew BDL-SLC/LAX/LAS at the same time?



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User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33278 posts, RR: 71
Reply 6, posted (5 years 7 months 2 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 5372 times:



Quoting USAirALB (Reply 3):
ALB-FLL doesn't have 200 pax, in fact it has the same pax number of DEN, 183

1) It does during the winter months, when the market size just about doubles.
2) You have to include PBI and MIA to get actual market size.
3) The O&D figures so far are before Southwest started FLL-ALB. Market stimulation has probably increased daily O&D by 35-40%.
4) Market stimulation is easy to gain on leisure routes and markets that already have close ties (i.e. Albany to Florida); not so easy in a market like Albany-Denver/Phoenix.



a.
User currently offlineLoneStarMike From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 3867 posts, RR: 34
Reply 7, posted (5 years 7 months 2 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 5366 times:



Quoting USAirALB (Reply 3):
Quoting LoneStarMike (Reply 2):
I think ALB-DEN would have to grow to at least 200 daily pax (100 per day each way) before WN would consider

Really, that much? I mean both PHX and DEN could be used as connecting points, so you can add about 20% to those passengers.

I meant to say ALB-PHX, but the same would apply to ALB-DEN. I'm basing my opinion on the fact that MHT, PVD, and BUF all have nonstop service to PHX (and all are over 200 pax/day) while ALB has no nonstop service to PHX and is under 200 pax/day.

OK gotta go now - Amazing Race is on Big grin

LoneStarMike


User currently offlineIowaman From United States of America, joined May 2004, 4433 posts, RR: 6
Reply 8, posted (5 years 7 months 2 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 5364 times:
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I wouldn't look for them anytime this year, WN has all their planes tied up with new service and retirements. I suppose it could be flown eventually, but it won't be on a high priority list.

User currently offlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15831 posts, RR: 27
Reply 9, posted (5 years 7 months 2 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 5356 times:

Let's remember what WN does. They don't particularly like the little niche routes but would rather cherry pick the bigger markets. Also, they still tend to not fly longer nonstops. They do now more than before, but they still feel such markets would best be served with stops or connections. And quite frankly, there are probably more profitable routes that they could be flying than DEN to some relatively small East Coast markets.


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User currently offlineJetblueguy22 From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 2837 posts, RR: 4
Reply 10, posted (5 years 7 months 2 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 5348 times:
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Quoting USAirALB (Reply 1):
I'm also curious to why Frontier failed at BDL

The times for both dep and arrivals were insane. I remember they had one flight that arrived at 130 or 2 AM and another that left quite early. And there was nothing mid day. Very strange scheduling. At least in my opnion.
I think WN would really be able to pull off BDL-DEN. They seem to do quite well at BDL and considering the lack of flights out west from BDL it would be perfect.
Blue



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User currently offlineGeorgiabill From United States of America, joined Mar 2003, 593 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (5 years 7 months 2 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 5348 times:
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I am hoping for MHT-DEN service perhaps as one plane service to the SFO or OAK. This would be in addition to the exisiting services to LAS and PHX from MHT.

User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25690 posts, RR: 85
Reply 12, posted (5 years 7 months 2 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 5329 times:
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Quoting Jetblueguy22 (Reply 10):
The times for both dep and arrivals were insane. I remember they had one flight that arrived at 130 or 2 AM and another that left quite early.

Hmmmm? It was a red-eye.

It left DEN at midnight and arrived at BDL at 5.30 am. The BDL-DEN flight left at 7.30 am. Those were the only flights.

http://flyfrontier.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=press_releases&item=1341

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineJetblueguy22 From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 2837 posts, RR: 4
Reply 13, posted (5 years 7 months 2 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 5325 times:
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Quoting Mariner (Reply 12):
Hmmmm? It was a red-eye.

It left DEN at midnight and arrived at BDL at 5.30 am. The BDL-DEN flight left at 7.30 am. Those were the only flights.

really? I could have sworn the flight arrived at two and left like an hour or two late.
Blue



All of the opinions stated above are mine and do not represent Airliners.net or my employer unless otherwise stated.
User currently offlineMariner From New Zealand, joined Nov 2001, 25690 posts, RR: 85
Reply 14, posted (5 years 7 months 2 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 5325 times:
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Quoting Jetblueguy22 (Reply 13):
really? I could have sworn the flight arrived at two and left like an hour or two late.
Blue

The times are in the link - post #12.

mariner



aeternum nauta
User currently offlineKstateinALB From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 753 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (5 years 7 months 2 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 5058 times:



Quoting USAirALB (Reply 3):
ALB-FLL doesn't have 200 pax, in fact it has the same pax number of DEN, 183

Depends really on the current season. That number most likely increases by fifty or so passengers in the winter.

Quoting LoneStarMike (Reply 2):
I think ALB-DEN would have to grow to at least 200 daily pax (100 per day each way) before WN would consider adding a nonstop flight in that market.

Totally agree. I believe the magic number is 200 before we see WN even take a chance look at adding the flight.



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User currently offlineAirframeAS From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 14150 posts, RR: 24
Reply 16, posted (5 years 7 months 2 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 5044 times:



Quoting USAirALB (Reply 1):
I'm also curious to why Frontier failed at BDL. Were they just having problems within the airline, and had to cancel some routes?

Not to mention when aircraft were being sold off and/or lease returned, some stations had to be cut as well. Unfortuantely, BDL was one of them.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 4):
Also to remember that it was cancelled when oil was going through the roof. Even so, Frontier retained the route until September 2008, in order to get the summer business.

 checkmark  That, too.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 4):
It is one of the routes that some of us think will come back, probably next year.

I am very, very hopeful it will!  crossfingers 

But I also wonder how many upset customers F9 had after BDL was cut.....

Quoting Jetblueguy22 (Reply 10):
The times for both dep and arrivals were insane.

Like Mariner said, they were red-eyes. I am hoping that if F9 does return to BDL after bankruptcy, the times will be more reasonable. But who knows what Menke has in mind post-bankruptcy.... anything is possible with him!



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User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33278 posts, RR: 71
Reply 17, posted (5 years 7 months 2 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 4997 times:



Quoting KstateinALB (Reply 15):

Depends really on the current season. That number most likely increases by fifty or so passengers in the winter.

It will actually double to around 370-400.



a.
User currently offlineLoneStarMike From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 3867 posts, RR: 34
Reply 18, posted (5 years 7 months 2 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 4948 times:



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 6):
2) You have to include PBI and MIA to get actual market size.

I'm just curious. Why does the Department of Transportation lump EWR, LGA, and JFK all together and call it "New York"; or lump IAD & DCA and call it "Washington" (while BWI is shown as a separate market), but they show PBI, MIA and FLL as three separate markets?

Why don't they lump PBI, FLL and MIA together and call it "South Florida" like you do?

LoneStarMike


User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 33278 posts, RR: 71
Reply 19, posted (5 years 7 months 2 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 4946 times:



Quoting LoneStarMike (Reply 18):
Why don't they lump PBI, FLL and MIA together and call it "South Florida" like you do?

Because DOT just doesn't.

DOT does not lump together the airports in the Bay Area, Los Angeles, Norfolk, Orlando or Tampa, either. But DOT does lump together in Chicago, Dallas and Houston.

Furthermore, in New York and Washington they are inconsistent - DOT does not lump together all the airports, only some, as you pointed out with BWI.

Not really sure why DOT is inconsistent in its decisions.



a.
User currently offlineChrisNH From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 4163 posts, RR: 2
Reply 20, posted (5 years 7 months 2 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 4872 times:

At one point I suggested that Manchester-Denver non-stop flights would work extremely well for whichever airline decided to try it. The two candidates are United and Southwest. But United hasn't been in any position to expand anywhere...never mind little Manchester. So we can forget them. As for Southwest, they can happily bide their time knowing that their sole potential competitor is flat-lining. I agree on two things: MHT-DEN is on the list of 'new markets' for Southwest, but it is probably a ways down that list.

User currently offlineJohn From United States of America, joined Sep 1999, 1374 posts, RR: 5
Reply 21, posted (5 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 4561 times:

ChrisNH: Wouldn't that be a pissah if WN decided to do BOS-DEN first...or have they announced that already? Sorry, I haven't done my homework...LOL! Regardless though, it wouldn't surprise me. I do have a gut feeling however that as the BOS market matures for WN, I could see MHT and PVD losing a few frequencies.

User currently offlinePBIflyguy From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 248 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (5 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 4519 times:



Quoting USAirALB (Reply 1):
I'm also curious to why Frontier failed at BDL. Were they just having problems within the airline, and had to cancel some routes?

Most likely because of crappy flight times that led to poor loads. Same thing happened in PBI. Morning departure to DEN was good at 07:30 , but the flight from DEN to PBI was a red eye that arrived around 05:30 . If DEN-PBI had been a late arrival with a RON the loads would have been better.


User currently offlineDolphinflyer From United States of America, joined May 2005, 204 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 4226 times:

You raise an interesting point, and it's one that I've also pondered. The most recent O&D data (YE4Q08) shows the following info:

DEN - BDL 171 PPDEW
DEN - ALB 80 PPDEW
DEN - MHT 79 PPDEW
DEN - BUF 75 PPDEW
DEN - PVD 72 PPDEW

DEN-ORF 79 PPDEW, so that's in the same O&D ballpark. I think there's merit to WN considering nonstop service in all of the above markets. Interesting that ALB fares so well versus the other cities. From WN's perspective, I could understand their concern of overflying connecting opportunities at MDW from the above cities, but given the lack of a true hub/spoke system at MDW, I believe that once-daily nonstop service to/from DEN could prove viable. I think that WN is better poised to make a go of nonstop service in these markets than either F9 or UA. Hope it works out. Would be great to add DEN to ALB's nonstop route map!


User currently offlineChrisNH From United States of America, joined Jun 1999, 4163 posts, RR: 2
Reply 24, posted (5 years 7 months 1 week 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 4160 times:



Quoting John (Reply 21):
ChrisNH: Wouldn't that be a pissah if WN decided to do BOS-DEN first...or have they announced that already? Sorry, I haven't done my homework...LOL! Regardless though, it wouldn't surprise me. I do have a gut feeling however that as the BOS market matures for WN, I could see MHT and PVD losing a few frequencies.

I think we're all resigned to losing some frequencies at both PVD and MHT. That's a perfectly plausible outcome. However, PVD and MHT are solid performers on their own and I believe the numbers bear that out.

It actually wouldn't bother me to see Southwest launch Boston-Denver service because it would give us a ringside seat to see how (or even if) United would respond. Simply driving out a competitor by low-balling fares for a couple months might work with a weak adversary. But Southwest isn't that kind of adversary. If they launch BOS-DEN, you know it's for the long haul. Then it becomes a game of chicken with an already-weak UAL to see what they'd do. There's not a whole lot they COULD do.


25 FlyPNS1 : These numbers are all too low for nonstop service, unless WN is going to rely heavily on connections in DEN. Keep in mind that even if WN were to fly
26 ChrisNH : I agree that there's not much 'demand' there, but I don't think demand for MHT/PVD-BWI was all that robust before Southwest came along. Keep in mind
27 FlyPNS1 : But that effect is largely in place already since you can fly MHT-BWI-DEN or MHT-MDW-DEN, so it's not as if WN isn't already affecting fares. Adding
28 LoneStarMike : It's true there was very little demand MHT/PVD-BWI before WN came along, but that was because US was charging average fares of about $1.00 per mile (
29 B752OS : The same could be said for a number of markets (where WN could bgein service that UA already has). BOS-DEN is a pretty good sized market with over 1,
30 F9fan : I was checking WN's flight schedule, and observed something curious. Come this fall, other than to or from LAS (which is only about 40 miles from the
31 AirframeAS : Concourse C at DEN is actually being expanded at the moment.
32 SANFan : I agree on your entire post, "Fly..." Nothing new; it's been this way since Oct of 2007 when the LA and OAK transcons were all xld (and has been much
33 Cubsrule : WN has about six gates at its disposal. There's no capacity constraint for them (yet).
34 BMI727 : They are good at using one or two stop flights effectively, plus if the price is right people won't care. They get more (or better) use out of their
35 Eghansen : It has to do with ownership. LGA, EWR and JFK are all owned by the Port Authority of New York/New Jersey. DCA and IAD are both owned by the Metropoli
36 PVD757 : The dynamic in the BOS/MHT/PVD is cloudy due to leakage. In markets where BOS has low-fare + nonstop service, the O&D numbers at PVD & MHT are artific
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