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ARN - SYD Nonstop - Possible With The 772LR?  
User currently offlineOyKIE From Norway, joined Jan 2006, 2753 posts, RR: 4
Posted (5 years 4 months 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 9309 times:

Here is an idea. Could the 777-200LR fly between ARN and SYD with a decent payload? Could this be the first direct route between Europe and Sydney? If it has the range for it, IMO that would be a good possibility for SAS. I know they are struggling to survive, but SAS used to be a pioneer 60 years ago. They might get a sweet deal on a few 777-200LR machines as Boeing is cutting back on the production rates, and other airlines are eager to deffer deliveries?


Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
40 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineSAS A340 From Sweden, joined Jul 2000, 781 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (5 years 4 months 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 9278 times:

So adding another type to the fleet? Big changes has to be made before the above even should be reconsidered,but possible? probably.


It's not what u do,it's how u do it!
User currently offlineThreeFourThree From Australia, joined Nov 2007, 215 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (5 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 9143 times:

But you have to think, 'Do i want to be in economy class for a hell of a lot of hours?'

User currently offlineSomeone83 From Norway, joined Sep 2006, 3399 posts, RR: 3
Reply 3, posted (5 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 9141 times:



Quoting OyKIE (Thread starter):
IMO that would be a good possibility for SAS

Yeah, A good possibility to loose even more money.........


User currently offlineOyKIE From Norway, joined Jan 2006, 2753 posts, RR: 4
Reply 4, posted (5 years 4 months 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 9090 times:



Quoting ThreeFourThree (Reply 2):
But you have to think, 'Do i want to be in economy class for a hell of a lot of hours?'

Maybe not. But my little sister flew between Europe and New Zealand, and she said it would have been better just to continue the flight than having to stop for some hours in Singapore.

Quoting Someone83 (Reply 3):
Yeah, A good possibility to loose even more money.........

Might be. If the loads are low.



Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
User currently offlineGemuser From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 5681 posts, RR: 6
Reply 5, posted (5 years 4 months 3 weeks ago) and read 8995 times:



Quoting OyKIE (Thread starter):
Could the 777-200LR fly between ARN and SYD with a decent payload?

Short answer: "with a decent payload" - no.
Slightly longer answer: certainly not west bound, maybe east bound, but probably depends on you definition of "decent".

There is not enough traffic Scandinavia-Oz to support the route and it's not particularly attractive for connecting traffic:
SYD-LHR 9188
SYD-ARN 8417
SYD-ARN-LHR 9208
SYD-HKG-LHR 9189
SYD-SIN-LHR 9274
All distances great circle, in nautical miles.

So it longer than via HKG and just 66 nm shorter than via SIN from LHR and it gets worse for cities south/west of London. So unfortunately I don't see a real market for the route.

Gemuser



DC23468910;B72172273373G73873H74374475275376377L77W;A319 320321332333343;BAe146;C402;DHC6;F27;L188;MD80MD85
User currently offlineANstar From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2003, 5250 posts, RR: 6
Reply 6, posted (5 years 4 months 3 weeks ago) and read 8899 times:

I'd say a LHR-PER route will be the first direct EU-AUS flight.

LHR is the only EU city that will be able to support such a non stop flight.


User currently offlineOyKIE From Norway, joined Jan 2006, 2753 posts, RR: 4
Reply 7, posted (5 years 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 8752 times:



Quoting Gemuser (Reply 5):
So it longer than via HKG and just 66 nm shorter than via SIN from LHR and it gets worse for cities south/west of London.

That was interesting, and it did not caught my attention. How about compared to DXB?

Quoting SAS A340 (Reply 1):
So adding another type to the fleet?

Only because the A340-500 could not do it at all.



Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
User currently offlineGemuser From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 5681 posts, RR: 6
Reply 8, posted (5 years 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 8691 times:



Quoting OyKIE (Reply 7):

That was interesting, and it did not caught my attention. How about compared to DXB?

9473 nm for SYD-DXB-LHR. 265 nm longer than SYD-ARN-LHR.

Gemuser



DC23468910;B72172273373G73873H74374475275376377L77W;A319 320321332333343;BAe146;C402;DHC6;F27;L188;MD80MD85
User currently offlineJoost From Netherlands, joined Apr 2005, 3170 posts, RR: 4
Reply 9, posted (5 years 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 8473 times:

There is no chance that SK will launch this route.

ULH-routes are very expensive to fly, as you burn a lot of fuel just to carry the fuel arround for the rest of your trip. So in terms of costs per mile, ULH is more expensive than just long-haul.

Taking into account landing fees and the extra fuel that is burnt for an extra take-off, stopping half-way is still cheaper than taking all the fuel with you for 1 leg. Actually, when the prices were skyrocketing like a year ago, it was even attractive to make a fuel-stop between Europe and Singapore.

So, for that matter, flying ARN-SYD is more expensive than ARN-SIN-SYD or ARN-DXB-SYD.

Now, the only reason to fly the route, would be if there are many passengers willing to pay extra to save 1 or 2 hours on the route between Stockholm and Sydney. I doubt you can find them. There is a reason that SK does not offer F on board of it's aircraft: there is not that much premium demand from Scandinavia. (similar to the Netherlands or Canada for that matter).

Now, you can't even (profitably) fill a 332 on ARN-SYD (with a stop) on O&D alone. But for connecting pax, there is no advantage in flying via ARN. For example from AMS, when you have the choice of flying AMS-ARN-SYD or AMS-SIN-SYD, you always have one stop. Now, I'd say that a stop in SIN is more attractive, as it really cuts the journey in half. And flying via ARN is more expensive for the airline, for the reasons stated above. Therefore, they will never be able to compete with the airlines like CX, SQ, EK, TG or MH.

Therefore, there is no chance SK will launch such a route.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31053 posts, RR: 87
Reply 10, posted (5 years 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 8452 times:
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Quoting OyKIE (Thread starter):
Could the 777-200LR fly between ARN and SYD with a decent payload?



Quoting Gemuser (Reply 5):
Short answer: "with a decent payload" - no.

Actually, yes.

Using the 77L Payload-Range Chart, at 8500nm a 77L can lift 110,000lbs which is 79% of it's maximum structural payload.

That being said, I do agree with those who feel that there is insufficient O&D traffic to justify such a flight.


User currently offlineOly720man From United Kingdom, joined May 2004, 6753 posts, RR: 11
Reply 11, posted (5 years 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 8415 times:



Quoting OyKIE (Reply 7):
Only because the A340-500 could not do it at all.

It probably could, it's a similar distance to the EWR-SIN flight.



wheat and dairy can screw up your brain
User currently offlineSydaircargo From Australia, joined Jun 2008, 242 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (5 years 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 8381 times:

would be nice to see another european carrier other than BA and VS in SYD but i doubt that SK will go that way. flying OS in the past SYD-VIE via KUL was ok , i liked that opportunity to stretch my legs for 2 hours outside the aircraft. how long would a nonstop SYD-ARL be?

User currently offlineSeaBosDca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5514 posts, RR: 6
Reply 13, posted (5 years 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 8316 times:

Can the aircraft fly it? Yes, although there is no chance of carrying any cargo and seats will be blocked off westbound on certain days.

Is there a business case for it? Not in a million years. I personally think there is no business case for >8000 nm nonstops anywhere in the world. That may be an extreme position, but there certainly is no realistic way to go ULH between anything but the very highest-volume city pairs.

There is no reason to add the substantial extra expense (and decreased revenue, thanks to the lack of cargo) of a ULH flight for economy passengers, who will not pay much if any extra for the nonstop. A ULH flight is driven by premium passengers, who are much more willing to pay extra for convenience.

On top of that, ULH is driven by O&D, because connecting traffic might as well connect somewhere in the middle where the costs are lower, rather than very close to one end of the trip.

QF has been trying to figure out a way to make SYD-LHR work since the A345 was introduced. The 77L made it look a bit more realistic, but not much. London has many, many times the number of premium passengers traveling to Sydney that Stockholm does. If Europe-Sydney won't work from London, it won't work from anywhere.

[Edited 2009-05-13 07:22:53]

User currently offlineKevin777 From Denmark, joined Sep 2006, 1165 posts, RR: 1
Reply 14, posted (5 years 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 8184 times:



Quoting Someone83 (Reply 3):
Quoting OyKIE (Thread starter):
IMO that would be a good possibility for SAS

Yeah, A good possibility to loose even more money.........

He he spot on....!

Quoting OyKIE (Reply 4):
Quoting Someone83 (Reply 3):
Yeah, A good possibility to loose even more money.........

Might be. If the loads are low.

Also if the plane is jam-packed and you have pax sitting on the wings..! Check out the Eu-Australia fare levels these days, all players are losing money by the bucket load, and M.E. airlines continue to flood the market with even more services.. you can get return Y fares from EUR 800, far below cost per seat, even considering th eodd full fare ticket, J- tickets etc...

Quoting Sydaircargo (Reply 12):
flying OS in the past SYD-VIE via KUL was ok

OS paid an awfully high price for this prestige route.. they lost millions of Euros (or Schilling??!!)

Quoting SeaBosDca (Reply 13):
There is no reason to add the substantial extra expense (and decreased revenue, thanks to the lack of cargo) of a ULH flight for economy passengers, who will not pay much if any extra for the nonstop. A ULH flight is driven by premium passengers, who are much more willing to pay extra for convenience.

Very true indeed - premium pax would be the only ones willing to pay for this, and not from ARN, maaaaaybe in 10 years time from LHR.. But even for them: A trip across the pond saves you maybe 2-3 hours if it's direct rather than onestop, considerable time saved on a 7-8 hour flight. But saving 2-3 hours on a 20-hour flight, where you might even would greatly appreciate a small break from the flying, even if in J or F, naaaah.. don't think the increased willingness to pay is significant at all...

A 772LR would look great in SK colours, though! But nope, not in a million years!!

Kevin777  Smile



"I was waiting for you at DFW, but you must have been in LUV" CPH-HAM-CPH CR9
User currently offlineYULWinterSkies From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 2180 posts, RR: 5
Reply 15, posted (5 years 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 8168 times:



Quoting OyKIE (Reply 7):
Only because the A340-500 could not do it at all.

As far as i know, SK never had plans to fly the A340-500.



When I doubt... go running!
User currently offlineLuvflng From Costa Rica, joined Nov 2000, 178 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (5 years 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 8078 times:

I ran an optimizer on this and 772LR is a capable airplane. It can do it with no problem and take cargo

Season Origin Destination Distance (Route/ESAD) Altitudes Wind ISA Block Time (h:mm) Flight Time(h:mm) Passengers Carried (Actual/Max) Cargo Total Payload
Jan ARN SYD 8,625 / 8,351 29/31/33/35/37 16 1 17:40 17:14 276 / 276 26,215 89,695
Aug ARN SYD 8,625 / 8,410 29/31/33/35/37 13 7 17:35 17:09 276 / 276 28,248 91,728
Nov ARN SYD 8,625 / 8,304 29/31/33/35/37 19 2 17:32 17:06 276 / 276 30,939 94,419


I ran Jan, Aug, and Nov to see if there is a significant wind difference, but there is usually a tail wind on this route and no significant difference.



Radar Contact Terminated, Squawk VFR
User currently offlineSeaBosDca From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5514 posts, RR: 6
Reply 17, posted (5 years 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 8078 times:



Quoting Luvflng (Reply 16):
Jan ARN SYD 8,625 / 8,351 29/31/33/35/37 16 1 17:40 17:14 276 / 276 26,215 89,695
Aug ARN SYD 8,625 / 8,410 29/31/33/35/37 13 7 17:35 17:09 276 / 276 28,248 91,728
Nov ARN SYD 8,625 / 8,304 29/31/33/35/37 19 2 17:32 17:06 276 / 276 30,939 94,419

It's the other direction that's the problem.


User currently offlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15749 posts, RR: 27
Reply 18, posted (5 years 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 8068 times:



Quoting Joost (Reply 9):
ULH-routes are very expensive to fly,

Exactly. For such a flight it is not a matter of having X number of people wanting to go to Sydney, but a matter of having X number of people who want to go to Sydney and are willing to pay a premium for a nonstop flight.



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently offlineTheginge From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2006, 1132 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (5 years 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 7897 times:

This type of long range route (Europe - Australia) has been discussed many times. The only way it will work at the moment and the airlines be interested in it is if they can have an aircraft that can carry maximum or failing that an economical payload BOTH ways non stop in all seasons and all weathers including very strong headwinds heading westbound. Until such an aircraft is avialable then I don't think this is a realistic prospect.

[Edited 2009-05-13 09:28:35]

User currently offlineOyKIE From Norway, joined Jan 2006, 2753 posts, RR: 4
Reply 20, posted (5 years 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 7781 times:



Quoting Gemuser (Reply 8):
9473 nm for SYD-DXB-LHR. 265 nm longer than SYD-ARN-LHR.

Thank you for that number. So it would be faster to connect from via ARN than VIA DXB from LHR?

Quoting Joost (Reply 9):
There is no chance that SK will launch this route.

With the current owners, SAS will not risk to much. So you are right. The plans will probably be laughed at in the SAS system  Smile

Quoting Joost (Reply 9):
Now, you can't even (profitably) fill a 332 on ARN-SYD (with a stop) on O&D alone.

Maybe not every day, but there are many Scandinavians flying to SYD. Lots of student (low cost) some tourist, and even some Australian companies are investing heavily in the Northern part of Norway.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
That being said, I do agree with those who feel that there is insufficient O&D traffic to justify such a flight.

Would only the O&D traffic make this route possible? Doesn't it matter that at least in northern Europe it would be the fastest connection?

Quoting Oly720man (Reply 11):
It probably could, it's a similar distance to the EWR-SIN flight.

But are the winds the same?

Quoting YULWinterSkies (Reply 15):
As far as i know, SK never had plans to fly the A340-500.

No they did not. But if it could fly that route it would be easier to get hold of an A340-500, and the crew already flies the A330-300/A340-300 so the A340-500 would require less training.



Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas
User currently offlineJoost From Netherlands, joined Apr 2005, 3170 posts, RR: 4
Reply 21, posted (5 years 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 7230 times:



Quoting OyKIE (Reply 20):
Would only the O&D traffic make this route possible? Doesn't it matter that at least in northern Europe it would be the fastest connection?

This is not realistic. Currently, the only East-Asian destinations served from ARN are BKK and PEK. Both airports are used as a hub for the region. SIN, a very important hub for the region, doesn't even have a link to ARN. If - apparently - SQ and/or SK (perhaps even codeshared) don't even think SIN-ARN would work, SYD-ARN is very much off the map.

Even carriers like LH couldn't make Australian flights work (they prefer codesharing via SIN), and also KL withdrew from Australia (in favour of codesharing via KUL). BA still flies to Australia, but only to SYD (they dropped MEL a couple of years ago) and the economic and social links between the UK and Australia are way, way larger than Sweden and Australia.

Quoting OyKIE (Reply 20):
Maybe not every day, but there are many Scandinavians flying to SYD. Lots of student (low cost) some tourist, and even some Australian companies are investing heavily in the Northern part of Norway.

Students and tourists won't pay the extra money to save 2 hours for the stopover in SIN/KUL/BKK.

And why would people traveling to Norway fly to ARN. There aren't so many Norwegian destinations served from ARN. Then, shouldn't the flight go to OSL.

And then again, just for comparison: SK couldn't fill a 332 on OSL-EWR...


User currently offlineParapente From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2006, 1588 posts, RR: 10
Reply 22, posted (5 years 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 7013 times:

There is only one plane that will be able to do it economically and thats the 380-800R with XWB engines,that will come in about 9-10 years - along with the 900. Until then they will spend that time making and selling the orders they have,whilst making little improvements all the time to keep the 748 hauling containers. By then the global economy will be in full swing and oil prices will be sky high.So it will be the right plane at the right time IMHO -we will have to wait

User currently offlineRJ111 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (5 years 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 6918 times:

I couldn't think of a better way to sink a company.

User currently offlineBirdbrainz From United States of America, joined May 2005, 463 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (5 years 4 months 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 6611 times:



Quoting OyKIE (Reply 4):
Maybe not. But my little sister flew between Europe and New Zealand, and she said it would have been better just to continue the flight than having to stop for some hours in Singapore.

...and the same person will likely say, "Gee, it would have been a lot nicer to break the trip up into two segments" if they had to endure a 18 hr plane ride. I can tell you that's what I was saying going SFO-HKG in business class, and that's *only* ~14hrs.

Having done SFO-CPT many times, it's just a hard trip, any way you slice it. My preference: stop in Europe and have a break. It has the additional advantage of risking having one's luggage lost and paying $3 for a cup of coffee.  Smile



A good landing is one you can walk away from. A great landing is if the aircraft can be flown again.
25 Borism : SFO-CPT non-stop? Wow, that would be heck of a flight! Back to topic: is ARN-SYD-ARN physically possible with 77L? - Absolutely. Weight restricted bo
26 SeaBosDca : If there is an A388R, it will indeed be a very capable plane, and may well be the first to take the 77L's range crown away. But it won't magically ch
27 Adam42185 : I have flown from BOS to New Zealand several times and often wished that we could just fly direct and get it over with. Often times I have to wait in
28 FuturePilot16 : Just how many hours is that?
29 MadViking : Actually a 333 but they would have had the same luck with a 332 if they ever operated one.
30 HLZCPH : We do AKL - CPH quite often, and a break in Asia is a good idea in my opinion. Easier to get going when you arrive at your destination! We usually do
31 SunriseValley : It is about a 8300nm ESAD. Certainly the 77L could do it easily with max passenger load plus some payload to spare. To make money would require a fai
32 Koruman : There are already two non-stop flights from Europe to Sydney: Air Austral service two European cities non-stop from Sydney (St Denis de la Reunion an
33 Haggis79 : I strongly disagree... especially since SIN is a very pleasant airport to make a stopover and get refreshed some (get a shower, take a plunge in the
34 Viscount724 : Most people think of their geographical locations, not their political relationships, and they are certainly not in Europe geographically. Neither ar
35 Gemuser : It is according to IATA! For example see KEs web site and click on their "European" region map. And a good thing too as it means I can buy an open ja
36 AirIndia : Theoritically yes. But given the number of connection that say for e.g. EK has from London (LHR+LGW) to Oz I assume you would beat ARN by a huge marg
37 Pellegrine : ARN-SYD-ARN is technically possible with a viable payload (pax + bags, cargo is questionable westbound). A340-500HGW can do it too. Demand at appropri
38 CALPSAFltSkeds : I see the original poster is from Norway and asking about ARN-SYD. If you're looking at a place in Europe to take off for SYD, then why not HEL vs. AR
39 Viscount724 : VVO is definitely not in Europe according to IATA. It is in IATA Area 3 which basically covers Asia and the South Pacific. The European part of Russi
40 Gemuser : Ok not IATA, but KE still thinks it is! And quite reasonably so, for its purposes. Gemuser
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