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Question - Delta To End JFK - BOG?  
User currently offlineClipperClub From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 5 posts, RR: 0
Posted (5 years 2 months 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 4833 times:

any info on the above route, it appears my favorite route ends in aug. will DL restart in the winter or perhaps reuse the freq, maybe an atl - clo ?

34 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32596 posts, RR: 72
Reply 1, posted (5 years 2 months 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 4797 times:



Quoting ClipperClub (Thread starter):
any info on the above route, it appears my favorite route ends in aug. will DL restart in the winter or perhaps reuse the freq, maybe an atl - clo ?

The frequencies must be used on JFK-BOG. They are not transferable to another route. If Delta wanted to start another route with them, other airlines would have to be given a chance to also apply for the frequencies.

I believe that the route will resume in December. Delta does an excellent job of warehousing frequencies to South America.



a.
User currently onlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17322 posts, RR: 46
Reply 2, posted (5 years 2 months 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 4772 times:

They aren't flying it in September or October but it returns in November.


E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineDeltaL1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9286 posts, RR: 14
Reply 3, posted (5 years 2 months 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 4541 times:



Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 2):

They aren't flying it in September or October but it returns in November.

hmmm so it starts then stops the starts then stops like they are doing with LAX-GRU? Is this the new way Delta will do things? I guess they plan on not only looking bad in LA buy also trying the samething in NYC. Good idea  Yeah sure

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 1):
I believe that the route will resume in December. Delta does an excellent job of warehousing frequencies to South America.

huh? Just South America?  duck 



yep.
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11416 posts, RR: 59
Reply 4, posted (5 years 2 months 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 4445 times:
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Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 3):
hmmm so it starts then stops the starts then stops like they are doing with LAX-GRU? Is this the new way Delta will do things? I guess they plan on not only looking bad in LA buy also trying the samething in NYC. Good idea

The fact is that, right now is difficult to begin any new route. Hope they got this in the near future.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineOA412 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 5231 posts, RR: 25
Reply 5, posted (5 years 2 months 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 4371 times:



Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 3):
hmmm so it starts then stops the starts then stops like they are doing with LAX-GRU? Is this the new way Delta will do things? I guess they plan on not only looking bad in LA buy also trying the samething in NYC. Good idea  

It's a seasonal cut which is something that all airlines do. This is hardly going to give DL a bad name in NYC.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 1):
Delta does an excellent job of warehousing frequencies to South America.

All other airlines currently flying to South America are free to request that DL be stripped of these frequencies. As of yet, this has not happened.



Hughes Airwest - Top Banana In The West
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32596 posts, RR: 72
Reply 6, posted (5 years 2 months 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 4340 times:



Quoting OA412 (Reply 5):
All other airlines currently flying to South America are free to request that DL be stripped of these frequencies. As of yet, this has not happened.

And then Delta goes, "oh, wait, never mind, we are re-starting service sooner than the schedules show. Check the reservation system after the weekend. See!"

It's a waste of legal fees. Airlines aren't dumb.

It's a problem DOT needs to work on. Until then, all airlines, not just Delta, will continue to take advantage of the loophole.



a.
User currently offlineJetlanta From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 3246 posts, RR: 35
Reply 7, posted (5 years 2 months 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 4316 times:



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 6):
It's a problem DOT needs to work on. Until then, all airlines, not just Delta, will continue to take advantage of the loophole.

So if all airlines take advantage of it, how is it a problem? Airlines should be forced to fly services that are uneconomic, simply because the were awarded authority at a time when the outlook was different?

In this environment, the DOT is very sensible to allow carriers a degree of flexibility. If someone comes knocking on the door asking for those rights, then re-open it. Otherwise, no harm, no foul. Just because a carrier has been awarded the rights does not mean they should be forced to make uneconomic decisions when the environment changes. They cut back their Open Skies and domestic services just the same.

BTW...everyone should expect to see DRAMATIC cuts when the Summer is over. The 10%+ cuts that Delta and others have spoken about are basically not yet visible. When they do occur, it is going to be brutal. Some trophy routes may be suspended. Certainly frequencies will be cut. And it will all be appropriate. The Summer travel peak is masking just how bad demand drop off is (especially in the premium cabin in international markets). When September rolls around..expect a machete to be taken to the schedule. Delta will not be alone in this exercise.

I almost can't wait for all the armchair planners to criticize every move!  Smile


User currently offlineFlyDeltaJets From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 1843 posts, RR: 2
Reply 8, posted (5 years 2 months 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 4313 times:
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Quoting ClipperClub (Thread starter):

Actually it ends June 1st and they didn't say if it will resume.



The only valid opinions are those based in facts
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32596 posts, RR: 72
Reply 9, posted (5 years 2 months 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 4307 times:

Quoting Jetlanta (Reply 7):
So if all airlines take advantage of it, how is it a problem? Airlines should be forced to fly services that are uneconomic, simply because the were awarded authority at a time when the outlook was different?

It is a problem. It's a problem DOT needs to fix, because no airline should be allowed to take advantage of it when other airlines can use the frequencies.

The way it is structured, another airline cannot come in and say, "XXX is using the frequencies seasonally, we will use them year-round."

Because American Airlines or Spirit would absolutely find a way to use these frequencies more efficiently than Delta.

Just like AA or DL would find a way not to waste United's seasonal IAD-GIG frequencies.

Though until DOT create a process that allows airlines to argue away frequencies due to them being under-used, airlines will continue this.

The way the current process works, if an airline X goes to seasonal, and airline Y objects, airline X comes back and says, "oh, wait, we're going to use the frequencies, just wait and see." This happened with AA/NK and Colombia; with DL on LAX-GDL (attempting to transfer to a regional affiliate); UA/DL/AA in Brazil a few years back, just to name a few.

And in a limited market like Colombia, where frequencies are still scarce and demand remains stable, there is no public interest in doing this. The only interest is in the airline purposely reducing limiting capacity to keep fares artificially high, or, in the case of Delta, trying to keep the very poor performing JFK-BOG route alive, where Avianca is killing them.

There is no problem reducing frequency for 6-8 weeks during the off-season. Delta is doing far worse than that with JFK-BOG. It has not even operated daily since just after it was launched. It's abuse. DOT needs to institute stricter standards.

[Edited 2009-05-19 22:39:54]


a.
User currently onlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17322 posts, RR: 46
Reply 10, posted (5 years 2 months 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 4188 times:



Quoting OA412 (Reply 5):
It's a seasonal cut which is something that all airlines do.

"Seasonal cut" is a euphamism at best.

Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 3):
Is this the new way Delta will do things?

What do you mean "new"?  Silly

Quoting Jetlanta (Reply 7):
So if all airlines take advantage of it, how is it a problem?

You have to admit, DL stands alone in terms of applying for routes it can not handle and quickly cuts or "seasonally cuts".

Quoting Jetlanta (Reply 7):
BTW...everyone should expect to see DRAMATIC cuts when the Summer is over. The 10%+ cuts that Delta and others have spoken about are basically not yet visible. When they do occur, it is going to be brutal.

We're waiting; I've got my guess list right here Smile.

Quoting Jetlanta (Reply 7):
Delta will not be alone in this exercise.

I wouldn't be so sure. Other airlines haven't added routes like drunken sailors on the same scale, so you might see some pruning, but not much slash and burn.



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineJetlanta From United States of America, joined Jul 2001, 3246 posts, RR: 35
Reply 11, posted (5 years 2 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 4151 times:



Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 10):

I wouldn't be so sure. Other airlines haven't added routes like drunken sailors on the same scale, so you might see some pruning, but not much slash and burn.

Well, Delta will indeed likely cut more. After all it is a bigger airline and a 10% cut of "bigger" would naturally be a "bigger" cut.

I'll add another point, Delta's willingness to try things that are risky is NOT a weakness. It is a strength. They don't always work out, but they often do (think Africa). I'd rather they be aggressive and try to change what was clearly a broken model than stick with the same old strategy that doesn't work. That seems to be the model of several of our major carriers. You'd apparently like them to do route planning in the same "successful" manner they did pre-2005, which is pretty similar to how several of the largest U.S. carrier do it today.

The industry model has been broke for a long time. Delta's network was more broke than most. They had to change or perish. But change is messy and isn't always guaranteed to work. To do it in this environment is even more difficult. So pardon them for trying and failing in some markets. The bottom line is that the overall strategy has been a net positive.

At the end of the day, they've positioned the company to be the strongest U.S. network carrier. I'm not going to quibble.

Food for thought from this week's issue of Business Week:

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/09_21/b4132036798289.htm


User currently offlineDLflynhayn From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 417 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (5 years 2 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 4106 times:



Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 10):
You have to admit, DL stands alone in terms of applying for routes it can not handle and quickly cuts or "seasonally cuts".

ALL airlines do it cmon! wake up.


User currently onlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17322 posts, RR: 46
Reply 13, posted (5 years 2 months 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 4085 times:



Quoting Jetlanta (Reply 11):
After all it is a bigger airline and a 10% cut of "bigger" would naturally be a "bigger" cut.

Depending what they cut, it could be just a handful of routes. For example, canceling ATLBOM would reverse pretty much any Transatlantic growth they've had in the last twelve months and would put them well along their way toward that 10% goal. But I wasn't really getting at the size of the cuts but rather the fact that DL has continued to add Transatlantic capacity in several hubs well into the collapse of demand. They're still up YOY in the Fall but that will obviously change.

Quoting Jetlanta (Reply 11):
At the end of the day, they've positioned the company to be the strongest U.S. network carrier. I'm not going to quibble.

I've never disputed that.

Quoting Jetlanta (Reply 11):
Delta's network was more broke than most. They had to change or perish. But change is messy and isn't always guaranteed to work. To do it in this environment is even more difficult. So pardon them for trying and failing in some markets. The bottom line is that the overall strategy has been a net positive

They had dozens of widebodies flying domestically, so their only choice was to fly them internationally or park them. Taking a 763 losing $20MM/year on ATLMCO and putting it on ATLPRG where it loses $5MM/year is a huge improvement, but still poses a problem.



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently onlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17322 posts, RR: 46
Reply 14, posted (5 years 2 months 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 4067 times:



Quoting DLflynhayn (Reply 12):
ALL airlines do it cmon! wake up.

If you can come up with a US carrier that has done anything remotely close to what DL has done in the last two years alone, I'll never say a peep about DL's route authorities again.



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22715 posts, RR: 20
Reply 15, posted (5 years 2 months 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 4054 times:



Quoting Jetlanta (Reply 11):
Delta's willingness to try things that are risky is NOT a weakness. It is a strength. They don't always work out, but they often do (think Africa). I'd rather they be aggressive and try to change what was clearly a broken model than stick with the same old strategy that doesn't work.

Is JFK-BOG an example of "trying things" or an example of "warehousing frequencies?" If, as MAH says, demand to Colombia remains stable, the problems DL is having with this route aren't really about the economy.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlinePGNCS From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 2820 posts, RR: 45
Reply 16, posted (5 years 2 months 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 3926 times:



Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 13):
They had dozens of widebodies flying domestically, so their only choice was to fly them internationally or park them. Taking a 763 losing $20MM/year on ATLMCO and putting it on ATLPRG where it loses $5MM/year is a huge improvement, but still poses a problem.

And you got these numbers from where?


User currently offlineRCS763AV From Colombia, joined Jun 2004, 4390 posts, RR: 12
Reply 17, posted (5 years 2 months 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 3908 times:



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 15):
If, as MAH says, demand to Colombia remains stable, the problems DL is having with this route aren't really about the economy.

I actually think it has all to do with the economy. The Colombian economy won´t be growing this year, so demand remained flat. The problem was there was a very big increase in offer last year, especially on BOG-NYC where capacity literally doubled. So there are much more seats to fill and no demand to take them.

Avianca, for example, wasn´t able to keep their second JFK frequency year-round. Plus, rumour has it IAD is doing very bad and could be axed after the summer.

It may be a DL problem for poor route planning but the sudden circumstances are not helping either. They should switch to a 737-700....



Les escribo desde el frío de mi verde altiplano.
User currently offlineJfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8273 posts, RR: 7
Reply 18, posted (5 years 2 months 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 3897 times:
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Colombia is a limited market, if the service is Florida or a large hub, ATL, then its fine. JFK to BOG is now competing with many new connections not available before. AA flies a hundred people daily over Miami from New York to BOG.

User currently offlinePHXtoDCAtoMSP From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 299 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (5 years 2 months 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 3841 times:

Word is that this has been one of the biggest, if not THE biggest disappointment in a route that DL has ever seen. Most people have said timing was obviously poor with the economy...but they are unsure, based on it's current performance, whether it can ever be a truly good performer. I have been told that loads average 30% and that the average yield for those passengers aren't even enough to make a profit if the load was over 90%. Basically they are selling tickets under cost to fill the plane...and even then they can only fill it 30%. I have been told that monthly RASM hasn't hit 3 cents in quite a long time.

User currently offlineSOUTHAMERICA From Colombia, joined Dec 2003, 2497 posts, RR: 10
Reply 20, posted (5 years 2 months 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 3780 times:

Curiously though, Avianca has recently deployed and is currently flying its flagship A330 on its BOG-JFK route.

Avianca offers lie-flat seats on J onboard the A330, and PTVs in economy.

The overnight BOG-JFK flight has always, always been a strong performer for Avianca. This flight has been a 767-300 for many years, even during the times when Avianca only had a single 763 on the fleet.

I don't know how this flight has been hit with the current competition, but apparently Avianca isn't willing to loose presence on what's been a traditional monopoly route for them and a success for many years.


SA.


User currently offlineDeltaL1011man From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 9286 posts, RR: 14
Reply 21, posted (5 years 2 months 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 3755 times:



Quoting OA412 (Reply 5):
It's a seasonal cut which is something that all airlines do. This is hardly going to give DL a bad name in NYC.

Really? How many flights has AA and CO cut to BOG for seasonal reasons?

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 10):
What do you mean "new"?

Good point

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 10):
You have to admit, DL stands alone in terms of applying for routes it can not handle and quickly cuts or "seasonally cuts".

DL is sitting on 3 GRU 7 BOG and 15 to China. 25 over all.....cant think of anyone close.

Quoting DLflynhayn (Reply 12):
ALL airlines do it cmon! wake up.

read above. no one does it like Delta.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 14):
If you can come up with a US carrier that has done anything remotely close to what DL has done in the last two years alone, I'll never say a peep about DL's route authorities again.

read above. DL right now is sitting on more flights than anyone.



yep.
User currently onlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17322 posts, RR: 46
Reply 22, posted (5 years 2 months 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 3730 times:



Quoting PGNCS (Reply 16):
And you got these numbers from where?

It's just an example. I'm sure ATLMCO and ATLPRG have always printed money.

Quoting RCS763AV (Reply 17):
I actually think it has all to do with the economy.

Ironically DL postponed the flight further into the deteriorating economy.

Quoting PHXtoDCAtoMSP (Reply 19):
I have been told that loads average 30% and that the average yield for those passengers aren't even enough to make a profit if the load was over 90%

The first part would surprise me--I imagine the flight has healthy loads upwards of 80s but a break even load factor upwards of 100+%. I think there's just too much national competition (ie AV) in JFK to Latin America for anyone on the US side to make a go of it, other than AA--and they don't even bother with many Latin American destinations out of JFK for that reason.



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineOA412 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 5231 posts, RR: 25
Reply 23, posted (5 years 2 months 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 3702 times:



Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 21):
DL is sitting on 3 GRU 7 BOG and 15 to China. 25 over all.....cant think of anyone close.

IIRC they fly JFK-BOG 4 or 5 times weekly so that's 2 or 3 frequencies that go unused. ATL-PVG and DTW-PVG are both 4 weekly plus the 7 weekly for SEA-PEK which was postponed for a total of 11. Where are you getting your numbers from?



Hughes Airwest - Top Banana In The West
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32596 posts, RR: 72
Reply 24, posted (5 years 2 months 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 3664 times:



Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 21):
Quoting OA412 (Reply 5):
It's a seasonal cut which is something that all airlines do. This is hardly going to give DL a bad name in NYC.

Really? How many flights has AA and CO cut to BOG for seasonal reasons?

I assume you asking it rhetorically, but the answer is, of course, zero.

Quoting OA412 (Reply 23):
IIRC they fly JFK-BOG 4 or 5 times weekly so that's 2 or 3 frequencies that go unused.

JFK-BOG will be suspended entirely. So that's 7.

Quoting OA412 (Reply 23):
ATL-PVG and DTW-PVG are both 4 weekly plus the 7 weekly for SEA-PEK which was postponed for a total of 11. Where are you getting your numbers from?

4 + 4 + 7 = 15

Though, unlike U.S.-South America, U.S.-China demand has collapsed.

[Edited 2009-05-20 21:30:55]


a.
25 Summa767 : AA is suspending 7 (out of 14) frequencies on MIA to MDE from the end of August to the end of November, so about 2 weeks longer than DL is doing for
26 Alianza : The point you make is clear. Through all the years of DOT's existence, it seems like their should be a policy in their books to deal with mis-uses of
27 DeltaL1011man : No JFK-BOG is getting cut(the whole point of this thread) PVG-6 (ATL/DTW) PEK-7 (SEA....if thats where they use them) BOG-7 (JFK) GRU-3 (LAX) _______
28 STT757 : UA has the advantage of much stronger hubs, ATL, DTW and SEA cannot compete with SFO, ORD and IAD when it comes to traffic to China. The O&D alone ca
29 DeltaL1011man : Ugh. Ok try this yet again. UA has the O/D but as for hub strongness UA's ORD/SFO/IAD are not even in the same world as Atlanta. thats not the point
30 OA412 : Unless things have changed it is still scheduled to return in December correct? So it really isn't being suspended completely. As has been pointed ou
31 DeltaL1011man : It doesn't matter!!!! Delta is sitting on them. If you cant face that fact them its your problem, But they are very much are sitting on them. Weather
32 MAH4546 : It will work given the right market conditions. The CAN market has collapsed even worse than Beijing and Shanghai. CAN has had non-stop service to Lo
33 WorldTraveler : Since you included just the link, I'll add an exerpt. Less than four years after it was left on life support, Delta is now the picture of health. Tha
34 SJOtoLIR : Correct. Analyzing carefully amadeus.net, DL is temporary suspending JFK-BOG service specifically from September 07th to November 15th. Regards.
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