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AA And Brazil In 2009  
User currently offlineTonytifao From Brazil, joined Mar 2005, 1019 posts, RR: 0
Posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 3917 times:

Does anyone have information on how AA is doing down in Brazil during this hard economic year?

I know that GRU was the place where AA was making the most money. I'm also interested to know if MIA-CNF is making money. I'm on this flight very often and not very full, I really don't want this route dropped.

Thanks,
Tony

26 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32691 posts, RR: 72
Reply 1, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 3915 times:



Quoting Tonytifao (Thread starter):
I'm also interested to know if MIA-CNF is making money. I'm on this flight very often and not very full, I really don't want this route dropped.

MIA-CNF has exceeded AA's expectations, hence it is already 4w. It's a strong route. Brazil routes typically can be profitable at loads in the low-60's, thanks to fares and cargo. CNF is a strong cargo market.



a.
User currently offlineHardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 50
Reply 2, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 3889 times:



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 1):
MIA-CNF has exceeded AA's expectations

Very good to know this information. It is now time for AA to return to South Brazil, and POA would be the obvious choice.

On the other hand apparently SSA performed somehow below expectations, right?

Rgs,


User currently offlineMAH4546 From Sweden, joined Jan 2001, 32691 posts, RR: 72
Reply 3, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 3877 times:



Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 2):

On the other hand apparently SSA performed somehow below expectations, right?

In terms of load-factors, SSA/REC have not performed below expectations. AA was aiming for 70% within six months, and they got that. Not sure about fares.



a.
User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7545 posts, RR: 25
Reply 4, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 3837 times:

In attempt to massacre passenger yields, DFW-GRU is going at 12x weekly again.

A daily 777 is the right answer for this route, not 12x weekly flights.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlineTonytifao From Brazil, joined Mar 2005, 1019 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 3808 times:

Well, my main concern are the fares. They are so low right now that makes me think they are not making money.

User currently offlineSkedGuy From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 135 posts, RR: 3
Reply 6, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 3579 times:
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Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 4):
In attempt to massacre passenger yields, DFW-GRU is going at 12x weekly again.

A daily 777 is the right answer for this route, not 12x weekly flights.

I don't disagree with you if we're talking about an annualized metric, but isn't the frequency increase simply AA's annual accomodation of peak demand during the South American winter and spring months? The additional flight operates xMW 6/11-8/30 and then TQJ from 9/1 through 11/14.

[Edited 2009-05-28 20:06:23]

User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7545 posts, RR: 25
Reply 7, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 3544 times:



Quoting SkedGuy (Reply 6):
I don't disagree with you if we're talking about an annualized metric, but isn't the frequency increase simply AA's annual accomodation of peak demand during the South American winter and spring months? The additional flight operates xMW 6/11-8/30 and then TQJ from 9/1 through 11/14.

Actually, Im almost positive this move has everything in the world to with Cargo. Cargo is worth more than passenger traffic in most cases anyway. I know AA has some lucrative cargo contracts for the DFW-South America flights. From what Ive heard at AA DFW-GRU carrier a good amount of cargo. If so, then its totally worth trashing the passenger yields.



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User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11429 posts, RR: 58
Reply 8, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 3333 times:
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Quoting Tonytifao (Thread starter):
Does anyone have information on how AA is doing down in Brazil during this hard economic year?

They got a hit on March, but numbers for April were better (mainly because of a lot of holidays in Brazil) and May seems to be nice. Fares went down (specially F and C) as well as Premium demand (now is easy to get a r/t on business even on AA950 for less than US$ 2,400)

AA information for NOV/08

Route / Load

CNF-MIA 50,0%
DFW-GRU 72.1%
GIG-MIA 65.2%
GRU-DFW 81.9%
GIG-GRU-JFK 77.9%
GRU-MIA 58.8% (763)
GRU-MIA 64.1% (772)
JFK-GRU-GIG 82.8%
MIA-CNF 35.5%
MIA-GIG 65.1%
MIA-GRU 51.0%
MIA-GRU 69.2% (772)
MIA-SSA-REC 36.3%
SSA-REC-MIA 42.8%

Lets compare

CO

EWR-GRU 71.2%
GRU-EWR 63.4%
GIG-GRU-IAH 75.9%
IAH-GRU-GIG 80.9%

UA

GIG-IAD 50.7%
GRU-IAD 56.9%
GRU-ORD 55.3%
IAD-GIG 57.8%
IAD-GRU 63.5%
ORD-GRU 56.3%

KE

GRU-LAX 39.9%
LAX-GRU 63.2%

JAL

GRU-JFK 68.1%
JFK-GRU 89.0%

DL

ATL-GRU 77.6%
ATL-GIG 67.7%
GRU-ATL 65.5%
GIG-ATL 63.6%
JFK-GRU 52.6%
GRU-JFK 44.9%

JJ

JFK-GRU 81.1%
JFK-GIG 71.6%
GRU-JFK 65.2%
GIG-JFK 58.1%
MIA-GIG 82.9%
MIA-GRU 79.9%
GIG-MIA 60.8%
GRU-MIA 75.4%
MCO-GRU 50.0%
GRU-MCO 41.6%
MAO-MIA 60.2%
MIA-MAO 48.1%
MIA-SSA 72.7%
SSA-MIA 62.7%

So lets compare with 05/2008, before the crisis...

AA

DFW-GRU 89.5%
GIG-MIA 90.4%
GRU-DFW 90.6%
GIG-GRU-JFK 86.7%
GRU-MIA 79.6%
GRU-MIA 87% (772)
JFK-GRU-GIG 91.3%
MIA-GIG 91.9%
MIA-GRU 88.5%
MIA-GRU 92.8% (772)

CO

EWR-GRU 86.4%
EWR-GIG (2 diversions) 70.4%
GRU-EWR 82.6%
GIG-GRU-IAH 85.9%
IAH-GRU-GIG 92.3%
IAH-GIG 92.3% (1 diversion)

DL

ATL-GIG 88.4% (764)
ATL-GIG 91.4% (763)
ATL-GRU 90.7% (764)
ATL-GRU 98.1% (763)
ATL-GRU 92.1% (772)
ATL-VCP 94.2% (764 diverted from GRU)
GIG-ATL 76.3% (764)
GIG-ATL 85.4% (763)
GRU-ATL 90.5% (764)
GRU-ATL 95.8% (763)
GRU-ATL 75.5% (772)
GRU-JFK 75.2%
JFK-GRU 84.3%

UA

IAD-GRU-GIG 82.4%
GIG-GRU-IAD 80.5%
GRU-ORD 77.2%
ORD-GRU 82.4%

JJ

GRU-JFK 80.8%
GRU-MIA 68.9%
JFK-GRU 93.0%
MAO-MIA 73.0%
MIA-GRU 78.2%
MIA-MAO 93.6%
MIA-SSA 98.8%
SSA-MIA 81.1%

JAL

GRU-JFK 83.2%
JFK-GRU 74.6%

Quoting Tonytifao (Reply 5):
Well, my main concern are the fares. They are so low right now that makes me think they are not making money.

You're correct. They reduce fares because loads are behind their expectations. Cargo is not so strong as it use to be, with except of DFW-GRU, GRU-DFW and MIA-GIG that shows increases. GRU-MIA shows a massive drop, even with a full 772 operation: 3 772 carry almost the same as 1 772 to JFK and DFW.

GRU-MIA
05/08 - 1,420,969
11/08 - 588,163

GRU-DFW
05/08 - 307,472
11/08 - 570,377

JFK-GRU-GIG
05/08 - 625,818
11/08 - 478,858

GIG-MIA
05/08 - 513,190
11/08 - 361,430

GIG-GRU-JFK
05/08 - 970,555
11/08 - 536,512

MIA-GIG
05/08 - 297,663
11/08 - 353,278

MIA-GRU
05/08 - 911,815
11/08 - 727,059

DFW-GRU
05/08 - 289,659
11/08 - 673,408

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 7):
From what Ive heard at AA DFW-GRU carrier a good amount of cargo. If so, then its totally worth trashing the passenger yields.

I don't know after Nov, but your info seems to be correct so far.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineRafabozzolla From Brazil, joined Apr 2000, 1225 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 3247 times:

But with the dollar plunging again (today it closed at R$1.98, the first time it was traded below R$2 since Oct) travel between Brazil and the USA might pick up.

On the other hand, I was able to get a fare for late July on CNF-MIA round trip for US$ 696 + taxes, quite on the cheap side...


User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7545 posts, RR: 25
Reply 10, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 3210 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 8):
I don't know after Nov, but your info seems to be correct so far.

I dont think its a coincidence that it was the same month that November was the same month that AA upgraded DFW-GRU to a 777. AA seems to be getting their moneys worth on that route between cargo and pax traffic.

Im also pleased to see that DFW-GRU is maintaining relatively high loads (I know it doesnt speak of yeilds) compared to the other Brazil flights.

Looking at it from a cargo perspective, it actually makes sense that DFW-GRU is operating at 12x weekly. DFW seems to be a nexus for cargo from South America to NRT.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11429 posts, RR: 58
Reply 11, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 3162 times:
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Quoting Rafabozzolla (Reply 9):
But with the dollar plunging again (today it closed at R$1.98, the first time it was traded below R$2 since Oct) travel between Brazil and the USA might pick up

Yes, but be in mind, a weak USD will mean less people visiting Brazil also. So there's a natural "wash out" for this.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 10):
Looking at it from a cargo perspective, it actually makes sense that DFW-GRU is operating at 12x weekly. DFW seems to be a nexus for cargo from South America to NRT

LAXdude, the demand from NRT is easing and that's the reason AA probably will not maintain the additional 5x weekly flight as they use to do during mostly or all of IATA winter. My question is why AA doesn't try a 5x weekly DFW-GIG. 30% of 12 weekly flights would produce 75% of 5.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7545 posts, RR: 25
Reply 12, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 3110 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 11):
LAXdude, the demand from NRT is easing and that's the reason AA probably will not maintain the additional 5x weekly flight as they use to do during mostly or all of IATA winter.

The 5x weekly flights will go away as it always does in late October.

What I meant when I said:

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 10):
DFW seems to be a nexus for cargo from South America to NRT.

was that DFW is a major transit point for cargo from GRU/EZE/SCL-NRT.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 11):
My question is why AA doesn't try a 5x weekly DFW-GIG. 30% of 12 weekly flights would produce 75% of 5.

Thats a good question. However I think JFK-GIG is definately next on the list for AA to serve. I would love to see DFW-GIG nonstop, however I think the following might be a good solution:

1) Start JFK-GIG nonstop with a 763 and continue to operate JFK-GRU with a 777 (pending approval of course).

2) Move the GIG tag on to DFW, creating DFW-GRU-GIG operated daily with a 777. I think that this would turn the already great preforming DFW-GRU into a superstar. If AA cant or wont fly DFW-GIG nonstop, this would definately be the next best thing. I think AA will probably do this anyway once they start JFK-GIG (which they will at some point).



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User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11429 posts, RR: 58
Reply 13, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 3078 times:
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Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 12):
was that DFW is a major transit point for cargo from GRU/EZE/SCL-NRT

True, but as i mentioned, AA said about 30% of passengers come/goes from/to Rio de Janeiro.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 12):
Thats a good question. However I think JFK-GIG is definately next on the list for AA to serve. I would love to see DFW-GIG nonstop, however I think the following might be a good solution

No doubt JFK-GIG is the missing flight nowadays on AA network to Brazil but also, considering CO took about 4 years since the boom of oil/gas in Rio to establish a non-stop service, if AA decided in the past to open DFW-GIG, it could easily be a strong competitor for the high yield oil/gas market. Right now CO decided to begin the flight but 25C is not enough for the demand, in my view, from Texas to GIG.
DFW-GRU-GIG is a very nice idea.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7545 posts, RR: 25
Reply 14, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 3070 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 13):
True, but as i mentioned, AA said about 30% of passengers come/goes from/to Rio de Janeiro.

This is very true, however I still think AA should make JFK-GIG needs to be the main priority for now. The best solution for AA is flying DFW-GRU-GIG. This will allow AA to focus their attention on getting flights from JFK to GIG nonstop, while still allowing there to be a direct (even if not nonstop) flight from DFW to Rio. This would also boost flights 962/963 even further, while still allowing for JFK passengers to have a one stop option on a 777 via GRU if they choose.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 13):
DFW-GRU-GIG is a very nice idea.

I think this is inevitable once AA starts flying JFK-GIG nonstop. On top of which, this would make this would make 963/962 more attractive to people making connections at DFW to GIG (especially NRT passengers). CO did a really good job getting fliers to double connect via IAH and GRU, I see no reason AA couldnt do the same at DFW.

Another thought is that CO is downgrading IAH-GRU to a 762. I think the decrease in passengers on IAH-GRU might help the DFW-GRU further.



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User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3694 posts, RR: 19
Reply 15, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 3060 times:



Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 14):
Another thought is that CO is downgrading IAH-GRU to a 762. I think the decrease in passengers on IAH-GRU might help the DFW-GRU further.

CO is not decreasing IAH-GRU. IAH-GIG is actually opening up space in the IAH-GRU flight. The consensus is that the gap left to be filled in the IAH-GRU flight is larger than the one on IAH-GIG flight. CO will actually face a greater challenge at GRU, since not only the IAH-GRU flight will miss the feed from GIG, but also EWR-GRU. The dynamics of the whole CO operation in Brazil have changed.


User currently offlineRafabozzolla From Brazil, joined Apr 2000, 1225 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 3002 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 11):
Yes, but be in mind, a weak USD will mean less people visiting Brazil also. So there's a natural "wash out" for this.

I have no data but I would guess that such "wash out" would not be so important since I guess most traffic between Brazil and the USA is Brazilian originated...


User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7545 posts, RR: 25
Reply 17, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 2925 times:



Quoting C010T3 (Reply 15):
CO is not decreasing IAH-GRU. IAH-GIG is actually opening up space in the IAH-GRU flight.

Yeah, thats true.

In a way it kind of makes sense since IAH has a much larger local market to GIG (the largest in the State). DFW on the other hand has the largest local market to GRU in the state and will has more GRU service to show for it.

I guess it all evens out.



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User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11429 posts, RR: 58
Reply 18, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 2893 times:
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Quoting Rafabozzolla (Reply 16):
I have no data but I would guess that such "wash out" would not be so important since I guess most traffic between Brazil and the USA is Brazilian originated..

Yes... and how about USA-Brazil-USA ? I believe you don't expect Brazil to fill the planes alone....

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 17):
In a way it kind of makes sense since IAH has a much larger local market to GIG (the largest in the State). DFW on the other hand has the largest local market to GRU in the state and will has more GRU service to show for it

Correct, in my view and based on info available, IAH-GIG is so big (and probably it's bigger) than DFW-GRU. IAH for GRU demands connections the same way DFW to GIG would demand.

Quoting C010T3 (Reply 15):
CO is not decreasing IAH-GRU. IAH-GIG is actually opening up space in the IAH-GRU flight

Agree 100%, that's the best definition.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7545 posts, RR: 25
Reply 19, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 2870 times:



Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 18):
Correct, in my view and based on info available, IAH-GIG is so big (and probably it's bigger) than DFW-GRU.

It is. By the last numbers I saw IAH-GIG is bigger than DFW-GRU by about 3,000 pax per year. And DFW-GRU is bigger than IAH-GRU by about 8,000 pax per year. That was 2 years ago, so that might have changed.



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User currently offlineSkedguy From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 135 posts, RR: 3
Reply 20, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 2843 times:
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Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 19):
It is. By the last numbers I saw IAH-GIG is bigger than DFW-GRU by about 3,000 pax per year. And DFW-GRU is bigger than IAH-GRU by about 8,000 pax per year. That was 2 years ago, so that might have changed.

That's about right even 24 months later. As of YE April 2009, my sources estimate that DAL/DFW-GIG is approximately 12 PDEWs while IAH/HOU is about 43 PDEWs. DAL/DFW-GRU is about 40 PDEWs compared to 27 PDEWs from IAH/HOU. So, in terms of local traffic only, the markets rank this way (sorted from top to bottom and rounded up/down):

HOU/IAH-GIG 43 PDEWs (32,000)
DFW/DAL-GRU 40 PDEWs (29,000)
HOU/IAH-GRU 27 PDEWs (20,000)
DFW/DAL-GIG 12 PDEWs (8,400)


User currently offlineLipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11429 posts, RR: 58
Reply 21, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 2807 times:
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Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 19):
It is. By the last numbers I saw IAH-GIG is bigger than DFW-GRU by about 3,000 pax per year. And DFW-GRU is bigger than IAH-GRU by about 8,000 pax per year. That was 2 years ago, so that might have changed



Quoting Skedguy (Reply 20):
HOU/IAH-GIG 43 PDEWs (32,000)
DFW/DAL-GRU 40 PDEWs (29,000)
HOU/IAH-GRU 27 PDEWs (20,000)
DFW/DAL-GIG 12 PDEWs (8,400)

Thanks, this shows and says all. DFW+IAH for GIG is 55 PDEW against 67 for GRU, but right now there's 0 flights to GIG from both markets, and there's 14/19 non-stop to GRU.



New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
User currently offlineRafabozzolla From Brazil, joined Apr 2000, 1225 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 2706 times:



Quoting Skedguy (Reply 20):
PDEW

PDEW? Sorry what is that?


User currently offlineC010T3 From Brazil, joined Jul 2006, 3694 posts, RR: 19
Reply 23, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 2698 times:



Quoting Rafabozzolla (Reply 22):
PDEW? Sorry what is that?

Passengers daily each way


User currently offlineIncitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4007 posts, RR: 13
Reply 24, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 2498 times:



Quoting Skedguy (Reply 20):
That's about right even 24 months later. As of YE April 2009, my sources estimate that DAL/DFW-GIG is approximately 12 PDEWs while IAH/HOU is about 43 PDEWs. DAL/DFW-GRU is about 40 PDEWs compared to 27 PDEWs from IAH/HOU. So, in terms of local traffic only, the markets rank this way (sorted from top to bottom and rounded up/down):

HOU/IAH-GIG 43 PDEWs (32,000)
DFW/DAL-GRU 40 PDEWs (29,000)
HOU/IAH-GRU 27 PDEWs (20,000)
DFW/DAL-GIG 12 PDEWs (8,400)

Both IAH and DFW are very large hubs so these numbers don't matter a great deal - just like the local market won't make or break CLT-GIG. Houston-Rio local following should have a positive impact in profitability because business travelers will prefer the nonstop. But at the same time GRU is the final destination of 2000+ passengers per day from North America while GIG is the final destination of about 800.


25 LAXdude1023 : Yes, indeed. GRU is a much larger destination for most places from North America. Houston seems to be an exception to the rule. I agree, however the
26 LipeGIG : São Paulo state is about 3 times larger than Rio in terms of poppulation also it's the main hub for the rest of Brazil and in part, South America. I
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