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Twin-engine Accident 'bound To Happen'?  
User currently offlinePart147 From Ireland, joined Dec 2008, 531 posts, RR: 0
Posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 26233 times:

I watched Sky news when this Ex-BA pilot (Moody) made comments about ETOPS aircraft generally and it bugged me... Now his comments have appeared in this article...
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Wor..._Sky_News_Range_Had_Been_Stretched

He's quoted as saying... "The aviation industry has extended the range of its two-jet engine airliners so far that an accident was bound to happen, ... They have changed the rules and now they have extended the range that two engine aircraft have to be away from an airfield at which they could land. They have stretched it and stretched it. I am afraid to say that at some stage there had to be this sort of incident." referring to the AF accident.

He also mentioned he'd had 5 engine failures in his career and didn't seem to trust the big twin!

How do you all feel about that? I can't belive that anyone would make such comments and then allow them to be published as if to stir up the general public's fear ...


It's better to ask a stupid question during training, rather than make a REALLY stupid mistake later on!
186 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineEMBQA From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 9364 posts, RR: 11
Reply 1, posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 26231 times:

Well... after billions and billions of miles flown there have been ZERO accidents attributaded to the aircraft being a twin.


"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog"
User currently offlineVC-10 From United Kingdom, joined Oct 1999, 3708 posts, RR: 34
Reply 2, posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 26141 times:
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I think it is a bit premature to make a statement like this when the a/c hasn't even been found, let alone the cause established.

His claims have to be put into perspective

How many ETOPS flights have there been without a major incident?

How many hours has he flown between his engine failures?


User currently offlineOPNLguy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 26103 times:

Quoting Part147 (Thread starter):
at some stage there had to be this sort of incident." referring to the AF accident.

One of the sometimes frustrating things that happens in the aftermath of any accident is that various "talking heads" come out of the woodwork to "help" the media fill the airtime, especially during those first 24-48 hours when there's not many hard facts yet known. Some talking heads are indeed well-versed, but some others are just blathering idiots.

While the topic of twins/ETOPS has been discussed and debated over the years, and rightly so, there is NOTHING to suggest that the subject has ANYTHING to do with the AF accident, based upon the initial info that I've read. Until factual info on what really happened eventually emerges, one has to consider the possibility that whatever knocked this aircraft down would have likewise done so with a 3- or 4-engined aircraft, and if so, mentioning the twin/ETOPS issue as any factor in this accident is premature, if not entirely moot. Only time will tell on that latter point...

[Edited 2009-06-02 07:10:50]

User currently offlineEnilria From Canada, joined Feb 2008, 7696 posts, RR: 15
Reply 4, posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 26076 times:

Keep in mind that on these super long flights and really any route that is near an aircraft's range limit the primary routing is so close to the aircraft's maximum range that they don't a lot of alternate routing choices in weather without diverting. ETOPS further exacerbates that problem because it also limits the flight path.

If four engine planes were held to the same safety standard as ETOPS planes for maintenance then four engine aircraft would probably be substantially safer, but since they aren't it's probably about the same in terms of engine failure danger.


User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17825 posts, RR: 46
Reply 5, posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 26071 times:

Do pilots get specifically trained to shoot themselves in the foot, or do they just pick it up from each other? Yeah sure


E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineLHR380 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 25980 times:

Any respect I had for Moody of the BA 4 engine out incident has now gone after these comments.

What a totally stupid idiotic thing to say.


User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4409 posts, RR: 2
Reply 7, posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 25907 times:

Once we know more, of course it would be interesting to know if the same situtation could have got a better end on an A343. If so, than he is right, if not, than it is just noise.

My concern, since lightnings are not yet excluded, is that the A332 has a huger fraction of composites than any other flying long range airliner. Does this mean that the Faraday cage has bigger holes? If so, then 787 and A350 are in big doubt, but again we have to wait for more information, and that can mean months...


User currently offlineRIX From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 1787 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 25831 times:

Load of nonsense. Whatever it was, it wasn't a case of second engine failure while diverting after the first one failed.

Quoting Enilria (Reply 4):
primary routing is so close to the aircraft's maximum range that they don't a lot of alternate routing choices

- I don't think anyone would plan a route that would be put out of aircraft range by some thunderstorm. Which, again, would still have nothing to do with ETOPS. As for this particular one, it was not even any close to longest over-water.


User currently offlineNA From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10817 posts, RR: 9
Reply 9, posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 25838 times:

Its bound to happen, this year, or in ten years, whenever.
Its called Murphy´s law.

On long overwater flights I´ll never take a twinjet as long as Quads exist.

There have been so many single engine failure´s on twinjets that its bound to happen. Just add another severe problem to the loss of one engine, and you have the mess.

Although in case of AF447 I doubt its a twin-engine related problem that brought it down.

Quoting EMBQA (Reply 1):
there have been ZERO accidents attributaded to the aircraft being a twin.

... but there have been lucky escapes!


User currently offlineRFields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 32
Reply 10, posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 25815 times:



Quoting Part147 (Thread starter):
I can't belive that anyone would make such comments and then allow them to be published as if to stir up the general public's fear

Read Michael Crichton's book "State of Fear" Ignore all the global warming stuff and look at how he describes the ways the government and the media manipulate the fears of the general public.

Stiring up the general public's fears is how politicians control issues they want to have as hot topics, and how they avoid dealing with other serious issues.

The news media exists primarlily to stir up the general public's fears.

This guy may have legitimate concerns about extending ETOPS, but he is using this incident to promote himself as an expert, and of course make money from this crash.


User currently offlineEMBQA From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 9364 posts, RR: 11
Reply 11, posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 25757 times:



Quoting NA (Reply 9):
... but there have been lucky escapes!

Name one.... name one that with 3 or four engines the event would have never happened, or been much safer



"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog"
User currently offlineMayor From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 10655 posts, RR: 14
Reply 12, posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 25752 times:

Ever notice that these people are always EX-something? They never seem to have the job, anymore that they did when they were experts, although I can see why an airline pilot wouldn't want to comment if he was still working.

[Edited 2009-06-02 07:36:30]


Just once, I would love to hear one of them say, after they've been asked yet another inane question by the newsperson, "I think it's a little premature to speculate on any of this until we have much, much more info." Wouldn't that be refreshing?

[Edited 2009-06-02 07:39:34]


"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
User currently offlineJakeOrion From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 1255 posts, RR: 3
Reply 13, posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 25742 times:



Quoting Part147 (Thread starter):
He's quoted as saying... "The aviation industry has extended the range of its two-jet engine airliners so far that an accident was bound to happen, ... They have changed the rules and now they have extended the range that two engine aircraft have to be away from an airfield at which they could land. They have stretched it and stretched it. I am afraid to say that at some stage there had to be this sort of incident." referring to the AF accident.

(Aimed at pilot) Ahhh yes, and the four engines on TWA 800 did a great job of saving that aircraft, correct?  Yeah sure

So far, AF447 has simply vanished. Any theory is possible at this moment (lightning strike, wind sheer, UFO decided to get pissy and blow up an airplane, etc.) so to say a twin is not safer than a quad is just stupid.



Every problem has a simple solution; finding the simple solution is the difficult problem.
User currently offlineNNomad From Portugal, joined Feb 2009, 32 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 25674 times:



Quoting Part147 (Thread starter):
"The aviation industry has extended the range of its two-jet engine airliners so far that an accident was bound to happen, ... They have changed the rules and now they have extended the range that two engine aircraft have to be away from an airfield at which they could land. They have stretched it and stretched it. I am afraid to say that at some stage there had to be this sort of incident."

We cant be too carefull! We should put 16 engines on each wing..just in case..

I wont even comment the lack of inteligence associated with those statments

A.



don't expect too much from the world's end
User currently offlineDallasnewark From Estonia, joined Nov 2005, 495 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 25627 times:



Quoting EMBQA (Reply 1):
Well... after billions and billions of miles flown there have been ZERO accidents attributaded to the aircraft being a twin.

There's always a first. He may have a point there.

He is a lot more knowledgeable and experienced than the A.Net "experts" that are trashing him in this thread.



B732/3/4/5/6/7/8/9, B742/4, B752/3,B762/3/4, B772/3, A306, A318/9/20/21, A332/3, A343/6, MD80/83/88, L1011, TU104/134, F
User currently offlineCchan From New Zealand, joined May 2003, 1763 posts, RR: 2
Reply 16, posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 25560 times:

He is damn right, but he has only told the press half of it. What he left out was that tri- and quad-engine accidents are also bound to happen.

For each model built, there is a good chance that an accident will happen, whether it is a twin or quad (there aren't many tri now).


User currently offlineNA From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10817 posts, RR: 9
Reply 17, posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 25556 times:



Quoting Mayor (Reply 12):
although I can see why an airline pilot wouldn't want to comment if he was still working.

 checkmark 

Quoting NNomad (Reply 14):
We cant be too carefull! We should put 16 engines on each wing..just in case..

No, we cant be modern and slim enough, we should put only one!

Quoting EMBQA (Reply 11):
Name one.... name one that with 3 or four engines the event would have never happened, or been much safer

I´m too lazy to go through the hundreds of accidents of the past decade, but one recent one I could name here is the US Air jet drowned in the Hudson last January. There is a chance that birdstrike would not have silenced 4 engines at once.
Also I once witnessed a 767 engine emergency, which in a quad would have been a non-issue.
Quick, if you´re sitting in an airplane over the mid-Pacific, and there is an uncontained engine failure, would you like to sit in a twin or a quad?
If two is safe enogh, why do other systems on board have multiple redundancy, not just one?
No, two engines are in the FIRST place a success because its cheaper for the airlines to buy and maintain.
I´m a firm believer in Murphy´s law which will not halt for of the "clever" twinjet concept.


User currently offlineOly720man From United Kingdom, joined May 2004, 6845 posts, RR: 11
Reply 18, posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 25532 times:



Quoting Burkhard (Reply 7):
Does this mean that the Faraday cage has bigger holes?

Composite materials have an external, and sometimes internal, copper or aluminium mesh or aluminium foil to act as the conductive path for lightning strikes.

http://www.compositesworld.com/artic...tion-for-composite-structures.aspx

Traditionally, conductive paths in composite structures have been established in one of the following ways: (1) bonding aluminum foil to the structure as the outside ply; (2) bonding aluminum or copper mesh to the structure either as the outside ply or embedded one ply down; or (3) incorporating strands of conductive material into the laminate.



wheat and dairy can screw up your brain
User currently offlineIncitatus From Brazil, joined Feb 2005, 4069 posts, RR: 13
Reply 19, posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 25483 times:



Quoting Part147 (Thread starter):
I watched Sky news when this Ex-BA pilot (Moody) made comments about ETOPS aircraft generally and it bugged me... Now his comments have appeared in this article...

The way the comment is worded makes it accurate.

Of course with twins taking over very long routes, accidents like AF447 with twins are bound to happen. Accidents happen once in a while and if there are lots of twins accidents with twins will happen. If there are lots of quads, accidents with quads will happen.

He insinuated a relationship between the accident and the fact that AF447 was flown by a twin. But he cannot go beyond that and he did not. Hardly anything is known about the accident. There is nothing to indicate right now that if the frame flying AF447 had 4, 6 or 16 engines, it would have been saved.



Stop pop up ads
User currently offline777jaah From Colombia, joined Jan 2006, 1403 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 25485 times:



Quoting Part147 (Thread starter):
He also mentioned he'd had 5 engine failures in his career and didn't seem to trust the big twin!

I would like to know if he counts that 747 incident as 1 or 4, well, all 4 engines went dead that nite......that would left 1 more engine failure in his career, which ended some years ago. You know, technology has come a bit far from that used in the 747 earlier series....

He must be on SRB's payroll now (4 engines 4 longhaul).......... wink 


Cheers


777jaah



Next flights: AV BOG-ADZ-BOG, AV-UA BOG-IAD-ORD-IAD-BOG, BOG-FLL-BOG, LA BOG-MIA-BOG J
User currently offlineMayor From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 10655 posts, RR: 14
Reply 21, posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 25486 times:



Quoting NA (Reply 17):
I´m too lazy to go through the hundreds of accidents of the past decade, but one recent one I could name here is the US Air jet drowned in the Hudson last January. There is a chance that birdstrike would not have silenced 4 engines at once.

Would a quad have fared any better if only one engine was still running? I doubt it, especially in the the departure mode that the A320 was in with a full fuel load. For that matter, could an A340 or 747 operate on only two engines during departure?



"A committee is a group of the unprepared, appointed by the unwilling, to do the unnecessary"----Fred Allen
User currently offlineFuturePilot16 From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 2035 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 25492 times:



Quoting Part147 (Thread starter):
I watched Sky news when this Ex-BA pilot (Moody) made comments about ETOPS aircraft generally and it bugged me... Now his comments have appeared in this article...
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Wor..._Sky_News_Range_Had_Been_Stretched

He's quoted as saying... "The aviation industry has extended the range of its two-jet engine airliners so far that an accident was bound to happen, ... They have changed the rules and now they have extended the range that two engine aircraft have to be away from an airfield at which they could land. They have stretched it and stretched it. I am afraid to say that at some stage there had to be this sort of incident." referring to the AF accident.

He also mentioned he'd had 5 engine failures in his career and didn't seem to trust the big twin!

How do you all feel about that? I can't belive that anyone would make such comments and then allow them to be published as if to stir up the general public's fear ...

What a moronic statement for him to make. So I guess a 777 is is pushing the limits when it flies from JFK to LHR? Even though it can make the flight with probably a 3/4 gas tank.

Quoting Mayor (Reply 12):
Ever notice that these people are always EX-something? They never seem to have the job, anymore that they did when they were experts, although I can see why an airline pilot wouldn't want to comment if he was still working.

That is extremely true, I feel that they find just anybody and pay them to say what the news wants to hear. It is extremely rediculous that they would make false statements just to scare people into watching their news. I'm just disgusted by this guy. I hope someone from both Airbus and Boeing can come out and verify the safety of twin jets to the public before more men like this come out with their false statments.



"The brave don't live forever, but the cautious don't live at all."
User currently offlineDesertJets From United States of America, joined Feb 2000, 7811 posts, RR: 16
Reply 23, posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 25435 times:



Quoting NA (Reply 17):
I´m too lazy to go through the hundreds of accidents of the past decade, but one recent one I could name here is the US Air jet drowned in the Hudson last January. There is a chance that birdstrike would not have silenced 4 engines at once.

That's meaningless speculation. The case of the crash of USAirways 1549 was not attributabal to the design of the aircraft (twin, quad, trijet, bi-plane, taildragger). There is no way to definitively prove that a large flock of Canada Geese would not have caused an aircraft with more engines to lose all power or not. Other cases, such as the Air Transat A330 over the Azores or the Air Canada 767 (not operating an ETOPS flight mind you) in the mid 80s saw double engine failures but in those cases -- namely fuel starvation -- would have been just as bad for a tri-jet or a quad.

Unless someone can prove me wrong I do not know if there has been a documented case of a dual engine failure on a twin, operating a ETOPS flight for a reason that would have not caused a full engine failure on a tri-jet or a quad. In nearly 25 years of ETOPS operations I think that is pretty impressive given the sheer number of flights operated.

Quoting Dallasnewark (Reply 15):
There's always a first. He may have a point there.

Yeah sure... but with a probability value maybe in the hundredths or thousandths of a percent I'd say we are pretty safe at this point.

Quoting NA (Reply 17):
Also I once witnessed a 767 engine emergency, which in a quad would have been a non-issue.
Quick, if you´re sitting in an airplane over the mid-Pacific, and there is an uncontained engine failure, would you like to sit in a twin or a quad?

I'd say in either case I'd want to get on the ground as quickly as reasonably possible.



Stop drop and roll will not save you in hell. --- seen on a church marque in rural Virginia
User currently offlineBabybus From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days ago) and read 25342 times:



Quoting Part147 (Thread starter):
Ex-BA pilot (Moody)



Quoting Part147 (Thread starter):
The aviation industry has extended the range of its two-jet engine airliners so far that an accident was bound to happen,

That guy is not the world's best aiation spokesman and I wish they would stop digging him up.

I always remember BA chairman Lord King saying the reason why they still flew 4 engined aircraft over the Atlantic was because they hadn't invented an aircraft with 5 engines.

Maybe we are pushing the envelope of safety with 2 engines over long sea stretches.


25 Phollingsworth : It is not as far fetched as you might think. For some classes of aircraft the single engine versions have a better safety record than the twins. This
26 OPNLguy : Maybe yes, maybe no. Unless he has some Divine ability to "know" (absolutely) what caused the accident in this point of time, he doesn't know whether
27 Starlionblue : 25 years later, we're still pushing the envelope? That's millions of ETOPS flights and never a single problem that wouldn't have brought down a quad
28 Eghansen : I believe the flight from GIG to CDG is not actually ETOPS. The distance from Natal to Dakar is 1867 miles which is less than SFO-HNL and I believe t
29 Gigneil : As I posted in the other thread, that's not the case. The A380 by far has more, and the 777 does as well. NS
30 Flyorski : Exactly! Well put! Any kind of aircraft can have problems, having fewer engines just plays with statistics.
31 Gigneil : There are a few hundred NMs that are both 60 and 90 minute ETOPS. NS
32 Smeg : I saw Mr Moody on Sky yesterday when he was discussing this, and.......... The 747 Volcano incident actually accounts for all 5 of his engine failure
33 Venus6971 : B-52's have 8 and they have had problems, ahh the dreaded seven engine approach.
34 VirginFlyer : You wouldn't be able to elaborate on the nature of that emergency, would you? By the same logic that 2 engines are not "safe enough", we could also a
35 FlyABR : i'm waiting for some "tool" to come out and blame the composite vertical stablizer...or has that already happened?[Edited 2009-06-02 09:04:27]
36 Phollingsworth : To be pedantic, it is "plays with probability." You calculate an estimator of the likelihood of an engine failure using statistics, the actually like
37 Gr8Circle : Knowing what journalists are like, we should give benefit of doubt to the pilot....god alone knows what he "actually" said and how it was (mis)interp
38 Wexfordflyer : While I am not best informed to really comment on the 2 vs 4 engines I am most surprised at someone like Moody (a so called professional) making a sta
39 Seemyseems : Whenever there is an aviation accident he is always on TV, for example I've heard him on Radio 2, GMTV, Sky News, Channel 4 News, BBC News and I thin
40 Post contains images OPNLguy : Funny that you happen to mention the "BUFF", since it allows for the perfect application of the old saying that "A picture is worth 1,000 words." Now
41 YULWinterSkies : How old is he, by curiosity? I don't mean this in a discriminative way, but mental degenerescence does happen, and often it is linked with age... In
42 Bond007 : Then you're hardly in a position to comment on the safety of 2 vs 4 engines then, are you ...and one of those statistics is that a 4 engine aircraft
43 Warren747sp : Bring back the MD11 and develop the MD12! Problem solved.
44 Richierich : NA - I usually think you have reasonable and well-thought out posts but this time I fear you are completely off base. There is no reason to think that
45 FX1816 : Don't forget TW 800 and Egypt Air 990 which both went down in the Atlantic but neither was engine related!! FX1816
46 Ikramerica : What a misinformed luddite. And people wonder why I don't have a blanket "awe and respect" attitude for all pilots simply because they are pilots? Th
47 OPNLguy : Are you sure that you weren't a dispatcher in a previous life?
48 Jbernie : Aren't we missing something in this discussion? At least some of the "failures" aren't directly related to the equipment, the US Airways Hudson River
49 RJ111 : I dispute the Air Transat one somewhat. The fuel leak was in the engine. If there was a fuel leak in a quad in theory it would have leaked at roughly
50 777jaah : That's even more unlikely than an IFSD. The way I see it, in extreme events, I rather have a bit of luck than an extra engine. Sometimes it can be mo
51 Ikramerica : Nah. I just don't have a blanket awe/respect for pilots/doctors, etc. because having known some BEFORE they were these revered professionals, not all
52 474218 : Don't you FREEDOM OF SPEECH in Ireland. The pilot was expressing his opinion, something everyone here in the United States is allowed to do. I don't
53 Smeg : You and me both! (I should say for the record that I was quoting Mr Moody as preffering four engines for the redundency. They are not my views - As f
54 Suprazachair : Be a little more condescending. And where did he say the pilot should be prosecuted for speaking a differing opinion? He said it "bugged him". Is Par
55 C680 : The guys sounds like a cranky old BA B744 driver to me. I can just hear him now: "We should bring back INS in case these GPS satellites fail. While w
56 SASDC8 : I hope that they quoted him badly on some of his statements, because in my honest opinion they border to stupidity. There is no evidence or facts or
57 Smeg : Having watched the interview with him, I probably should say that these comments look far more damning of twins than I think he intended them to be.
58 SEPilot : I have done a study on engine related fatal crashes. Guess what? Since the dawn of the jet age, there have been EXACTLY THE SAME NUMBER of engine cau
59 Cchan : He can say what he want, that is his freedom. However, in front of the media, and taking the role of an expert advising that public, he should be car
60 Flighty : I really think they should go back to piston engine aeroplanes. Then, the all-knowing pilot can land and actually fix the engine using his hand tools.
61 Smeg : Agreed! This argument will rage on and on. - Could the Hudson landing have been avoided if it was a quad? - possibly (although unless the 4 engined B
62 Phollingsworth : This holds with the probability theory that I presented above. People think that multiple engines are redundant when in fact they are often not. This
63 SirSheldon : You read my mind!
64 SEPilot : One thing I find interesting. As piston aircraft engines grew they actually became LESS reliable, while jet engines have become MORE reliable. There
65 RJ111 : Probably not at MTOW but i wouldn't completely write off a quad climbing out on 2 engines.
66 Post contains links EA772LR : Good point A bit of trivia for how 'safe' the 777 really is: (and actually most modern twins) "Sleeping in a sleeping bag doing mach 0.84 over the No
67 Mayor : Well, you can't yell FIRE in a crowded theater, either.
68 NA : Thanks for the praise. My point though is not wether twinjets are in general less safe than quads, my point is that there are possible scenarios wher
69 TWAL1011727 : After reading the above statement, I thought of this crash too. The only reason Douglas put the number 2 engine up there was there was no B777 thrust
70 Cchan : Provided the other engine is still running, I would rather be on the twin heading for an emergency landing at a nearby airport than on a quad which c
71 Ikramerica : That's why I called him a luddite. because his knowledge and experience is frozen at a certain period in time, and he now believes that those were th
72 United787 : I keep screaming at the TV hoping these "experts" would shut up and say something like you suggested...my wife thinks I am crazy... I got about half
73 OPNLguy : I remember that, as well as the news coverage that mentioned some pax supposedly deplaning in CVG still wearing lifevests.. If true, that had to be a
74 Danfearn77 : My dad has just asked me this question, and i wasnt sure. Will the A340 now become more viable? Will airlines be attracted to a basically 4 engined 33
75 Aerdingus : It's just sensationalist journalism targeting stupid people who will buy it all up & keep watching these stations to stay informed about " dangerous"
76 Wexfordflyer : The difference here is that he was taking on the role of "expert". He was there to give an experts opinion on the facts of the case to give a possibl
77 Max Q : Well I wish we all could still fly 3 and 4 engine jets, it is nice to have the extra redundancy. The reality is that the economics of the twin are unb
78 WildcatYXU : It was apparently very long time ago. AF had at least 2 GE90-115B IFSD's (remember the diversion to Irkutsk?); AC had a 77W sitting in ANC for a week
79 Starlionblue : I think that already happened, at least on a.nut. On a jet airliner, I don't think so. Heh. Good point. Still, there was a maintenance error (faulty
80 FuturePilot16 : That hasn't happened yet, But some guy on either CNN or Fox News yesterday claimed that because of the composite on the newer planes, he claimed that
81 Ikramerica : Uhm, why should it? Do you know the cause of the accident? Because nobody else does. For all we know it could be a faulty design of various component
82 Viscount724 : Apart from a couple of AF IFSDs, AC had 2 IFSDs on 77Ws just a couple of months apart within the past year or so requiring diversions to ANC in one c
83 OPNLguy : I have a vague recollection of one such incident back in the mid-1980s, a 767 headed to DEN Stapleton. As best as I can remember, they were on the de
84 Brilondon : That statement is crap. Since the DC-2 there have been twin engined aircraft flying commercially, now they are saying its dangerous? I would like to s
85 GVROY : I still say the 4 engine jets likes the 747 400, the A340/300/600 should be ok to travel 10/11 hours plus without any major hiccups over the Atlantic
86 SEPilot : If you examine 741/742 accidents I think you will find that with the exception of the two that lost engines and crashed almost all of them were pilot
87 Post contains links JeffSFO : Would you have felt safer on these four engine planes that went down from bird ingestion? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-3_Sentry#Incidents_and_accid
88 Qantas787 : I believe Capt Moody landed on 2 of 4 engines after the volcano incident , so I guess looking at his experience those 2 might have been the only 2 if
89 Mascmo : I gotta tell you I do feel more safe flying over the ocean in the four engine plane that I do every day than I do in a twin engine...BUT the 777 and a
90 Flighty : Here's a bit of near trivia. Per departure, it would seem that long haul aircraft have far more accidents than short flights do. Across the Atlantic,
91 QFMel : Freedom of speech is one thing- here, though, he's exercising a freedom to be irresponsible. There's no law that prohibits me from banging my head ag
92 EA772LR : Well said mate!
93 Starlionblue : Since 99.9% of the flying public really has no idea how many engines a particular type has, I don't think there will be ANY difference. Passengers ha
94 Ikramerica : Did you join up specifically to post this? Route: London to Las Vegas, you are never more than 90 minutes from a diversion airport, most of the route
95 StealthZ : There is the thing, there have not been hundreds of accidents in the past decade. Airline travel is so safe that it is almost impossible to apply any
96 Falcon84 : Probably in their union contracts.
97 A346Dude : I'd be lying if I didn't say I would rather be on the quad. But I would know this opinion is based purely on emotion and not on statistics, which dem
98 Mascmo : I just told you of a flight from Anchorage to Hawaii. That flight is operated by an AS 738! Looking at a map that is pretty much the middle of the pa
99 Starlionblue : I stand corrected. But it must have been ETOPS certified then, meaning it is (at least in theory) as "safe" as an ETOPS 777 on the same route.
100 Post contains links Springbok747 : Are you flippin' kidding me?! The 777 is small? Have you seen the size of the 777-300? Here are some numbers: Basic Dimensions Wing Span :199 ft 11 i
101 FuturePilot16 : Way to tell him
102 NorthstarBoy : Its funny the way someone will criticize a certain category of aircraft vs another category of aircraft such as twins vs quads and people on these boa
103 ThirtyEcho : In this case, two more engines would have just made a bigger splash. By this Dilbert's reasoning, the safest airplanes would be the B-52, the B-36 and
104 Starlionblue : NorthstarBoy, I don't know where to begin. Your post is so full of holes it hurts my head. You are confusing different concepts. - Fly by wire. A mean
105 Phollingsworth : I said as much in my post. If you look at it from a pure specific excess power point of view, there TOWs where you could maintain a positive rate of
106 Solnabo : IIRC there was a Lauda 767ER crash early 90´s with one engine reversed at 12000 metres. Anyone here to confirm this? //Micke
107 Phollingsworth : There was an accident where a PW4060 suffered a in flight thrust reverser deployment that led to a loss of control and a crash. It was also a 767-300
108 NA : Dream on. You believe in marketing bla-bla, do you? These are exactly those oldie aircarft I begged not too compare today´s airliners with. And what
109 Starlionblue : Interesting wrinkle. Of course, nothing says that a quad wouldn't have crashed. But I see your point. Hmmm. Very good points. Something to think abou
110 A346Dude : I don't think anyone is saying that. What they are saying is the very slightly increased risk of a twin is justified by the substantial cost savings
111 JOEYCAPPS : I have to disagree with what he said, despite his professional "opinion" (I use that word, because 'opinion' is the only respect I have for his commen
112 Phollingsworth : What makes the comparison invalid. Yes there are areas where comparisons between two different generations of aircraft are invalid. However, the suce
113 Starlionblue : The 777 is a generation younger than the 747-400, and two generations younger than the 747 Classic. I would think there have been one or two improvem
114 NA : Well, I make my decisions as they deem useful or logical to me. The chance of a double engine failure is very, very remote, yes. Like winning the Lot
115 NorthstarBoy : Actually, i was using fly by wire as a general concept to describe aircraft basically flown by computers vs aircraft not flown by computers. In a com
116 Starlionblue : You can't really compare it to winning the Lotto. The Lotto is supposed to yield winning numbers. Engines are designed to NOT fail. Also I think if y
117 NA : Designed by humans. Sure, but the more powerful and bigger the engine, the higher the potential damage. That they indeed do. The improvements especia
118 Burkhard : I think an Avro RJ100, which is the nearest Quad to an Airbus 319, would have had a fair chance to land in Newark. There are single engine failures w
119 Starlionblue : ' The reason the airlines don't think this way is because the average pax really has no clue what aircraft they are flying. In other words, they don'
120 BCAL : Precisely. He retired some years ago (cannot find the exact year) and asking him to comment on today's civil aviation is like asking Dixon of Dock Gr
121 777jaah : Still, no failure in both engines in a 737-767-757-777-330-MD80s-E145-E190, etc, etc.....makes me feel safe in any twin engine plane. In terms of saf
122 Faro : Looks like the thread has more than achieved its quota of of Moody-bashing so, for a change, I'll side with him on this one specific point: psychologi
123 Soon7x7 : I had a girlfriend that had travelled to Italy both ways on Alitalia 747's. Upon her return to the states, two out of four engines were shut down ove
124 Tockeyhockey : one of the most dramatic uncontained engine failures that i can think of was the sioux city crash, UA232. that was on a tri-jet. engine parts severed
125 ECGGS : I think the mentioned Lotto analogy is a bit misleading. Winning the Lotto is rare only if you look at an individual ticket / player. For instance th
126 Mayor : This "twin vs quad" argument is getting kind of ridiculous, especially the calls for no overwater twin flights by Mr. Moody and those on here. No one
127 777jaah : I think that's why those flights need a quad, because of ETOPS rules really don't aplly there, simply closests airflied is way too long to reach. 777
128 SEPilot : Yes, this did happen. And while the fact that it was a twin made it worse, the reason that the plane crashed was that the thrust reverser caused it t
129 Soon7x7 : I wish I could resurrect the specifics as I am just as interested in this, I can assure you, it did occur, the powerplants were the old JT-9's with t
130 SEPilot : Thanks for the update. Considering the fact that the JT-9's had well-known problems at the beginning it is not at all surprising that this should hav
131 EA772LR : Nice. And actually you quoted numbers from the 773A, and not the 77W, so to make your point even more valid, the wingspan on the 77W is actually long
132 SEPilot : I will give you the fact that maintenance has improved, but there have been very, very few crashes blamed on faulty maintenance. The ones I can think
133 DesertJets : The south Pacific crossing from Aus/NZ to South America is the last place where twins still cannot legally the most ideal route. However until all lo
134 VirginFlyer : To be honest, I think you are looking at this backwards. Yes of course if I had an engine failure, I would *feel* happier if I had more than one left
135 Mrocktor : A 777 is significantly safer than a 744 due to stricter requirements (regulatory creep is very significant in the industry), more advanced techology
136 Cchan : No, I doubt any airline would buy a plane which burns more fuel and have 2 more engines to service just to make the passengers FEEL safer. Economics
137 RIX : - see reply 34. Overall, it's not binary "may / may not happen", let alone "may happen means eventually will happen". May Earth be hit by whatever fr
138 413X3 : I can't believe people are already classifying this accident and so sure they can pinpoint enough to blame something, or something, already.
139 Qantas787 : How about the 734 of British Midland? Four engines would have saved this one I believe. Personally I am happy to fly on anything modern, but JNB-SYD I
140 StealthZ : Adequate crew training and system familiarisation would have as well, in a much more efficient and intelligent way.
141 Aviateur : What the hell was he talking about? What does ETOPS have to do with this accident, based on what's known? If the plane had encountered the same proble
142 Qantas787 : Absolutely, but I guess I am pointing out one accident 4 engines would make a difference to. However I am not buying into the whole 4 against 2 argum
143 Airtechy : I understand the math statistics that supports the concept of two engines. My only slight concern is one engine shedding a blade (in an uncontained fa
144 Phollingsworth : Blades are typically not the issue, those that are uncontained typically don't have enough residual energy to pierce another engine casing (since tho
145 Post contains links and images VirginFlyer : Thanks, I think you've done a great job of explaining what I was trying to get at in a more accurate way! I always get tongue tied when it comes to e
146 Glom : I see that your ignorance of aerospace engineering is matched by your ignorance of basic economics.
147 SEPilot : I discussed this in an earlier post, and acknowledged that if it had been a quad it would not have crashed. But if you are going to argue that you mu
148 Part147 : Wow! I go off for 2 days and come back to this thread!!! Thanks for all your thoughts and insights! And even though it's been a while, I'm still 'bugg
149 Danfearn77 : Well spotted, i ment two engined aircraft! Now a single engined aircraft would be silly!
150 SEPilot : I don't know about that; I fly single engined aircraft every chance I get...hence my username.
151 NA : Theory is theory. No 744 was lost due to technical reason, a 777 was! And can in many cases survive to two. I´m very, very much concerned about an i
152 SEPilot : And yet two 742's (granted, not 744's) were lost due to engines falling off and striking another one; and the "technical reason" the 777 was lost was
153 NA : And thats what the thread is about. The fact that a ETOPS twin can crash despite its-oh-so-advanced technology. Because of a failure of bolts holding
154 EA772LR : True but the same thing could have happened to a quad. Now, can someone please tell me how far a quad could fly on just 2 engines? Since quads don't
155 SEPilot : This is true, but it goes to the point that quads have their own built in dangers; if an engine falls off it can take another one with it. This canno
156 NA : Could, but didnt. A higher number of engines in such case though makes it less likely. As said, the engine loss was due to a technical failure on an
157 SEPilot : Yes, the 744 is different, but it is not immune to faulty maintenance and other events that could cause an engine to fall off. Yes, it is unlikely, b
158 Mayor : You could also say that more engines = more possible problems What is apparent to me, looking at the available info that we have, that the number of
159 SEPilot : Absolutely correct. From what we know now it appears that extreme turbulence is the most likely cause. 20 engines wouldn't have helped.
160 EA772LR : You're right but a quad cannot fly on two engines can it??
161 AA777 : Possibly, but there's pretty much no chance that the plane taking off from LGA would be a quad. Reality is reality. Anyway, a 4 holer losing two engi
162 UK_Dispatcher : Couldn't agree more. I was annoyed as soon as that comment appreared in the Sky News article.
163 Mayor : Not only that, but if a quad lost two engines during climbout, with a full load and full fuel, would it fare any better than US 1549? I don't think s
164 Post contains links EA772LR : I found this archived in another thread that seems to give a great view on the subject of safety among ETOPS aircraft: http://www.airliners.net/aviati
165 Post contains links and images EA772LR : Perhaps this would make some on here feel more comfortable about flying Aviation-Design.Net:Design © Ashil MistryTemplate © Czyechya Kryoahsa
166 VirginFlyer : See: and: As Phollingsworth has pointed out, the size of the engine is not the issue when it comes to uncontained engine failures. However, if you ar
167 SEPilot : Not me; I'd be terrified about the possibility of an uncontained failure on any one of those engines. Give me a twin any day. There have been 2 airli
168 Glom : Ugh! That looks like something you'd get out of The Fly if you replaced Jeff Goldblum with a VS A346. Gets my creeped-out-by-bugs shivers going.
169 Valleyspotter : I have to make a comment about this quote: Part147, Mr Eric Moody was the captain of BA009 that lost all 4 engines back in the mid 80's and nearly dit
170 Mayor : Unless he knows more info than any of has received thru the media, he knows no more than we do and to imply that this was a twin engined problem, as
171 Starlionblue : As has been frequently demonstrated, airlines "less concerned about safety" can make ANY airliner unsafe. In this regard, there is nothing special ab
172 Qantas787 : Sorry mate I am not arguing at all, just bringing up a point that you had already apparently. Sometimes it is difficult to go thru every post when yo
173 Post contains links Part147 : Valleyspotter, I know that - but as I said here... His experience is not in question, nor was that my intention in starting this thread... I hope thi
174 Pellegrine : Yes, depending on gross weight, A340, A380, and B744 can continue flying on 2 engines at a lower than optimum cruise altitude and land safely.
175 Rheinwaldner : Hundreds of miles further than a twin. Much better chances to get anywhere suitable. Why so conservative? A twin has still twice as much uncontained
176 Burkhard : Does anybody know about the following. I read in the news that at 35 000 feet, the difference between minmal and maximal speed on an A330 is just 50km
177 SEPilot : As mentioned earlier, I fly single engine aircraft every chance I get. But I do not think single engine airliners will ever catch on; I think that th
178 Rheinwaldner : "enough birds": Already this is a supposition that screws the statistics. An encounter with few birds is more likely than with many. If the likelines
179 SEPilot : In actuality, this whole argument is pretty academic. The simple fact is that nobody has died on an airliner from a bird strike since (I believe it w
180 VirginFlyer : Just to put the birds to rest once and for all, it should be pointed out birdstrikes are a consideration for arrival and departure, so it is irrelevan
181 Rheinwaldner : Of course it is academic. But when dealing with safety aspects the theoretical feasibility is very important. For most of the safety relevant topics
182 VirginFlyer : Precisely. V/F
183 SEPilot : The problem with doing things to improve safety is that sometimes what you do to alleviate one risk creates or exacerbates others. For instance, I am
184 Access-Air : Hello, instead of debating the twin vs more engines thing, perhaps this had nothing to do with engines at all.... Does anyone remember reading about t
185 Tdscanuck : It's about the same, even in theory. For a given mass of airliner, the amount of air ingested by the engines is basically constant whether it's a qua
186 Cchan : How about a BAe146 or Avro RJ? When we discuss quads vs twins, most of the discussion is around A340, B744 or A380, it would be great if someone has
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