Moderators From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 427 posts, RR: 0 Posted (2 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 69896 times:
Bjornstrom From Australia, joined Jun 2005, 327 posts, RR: 1 Reply 1, posted (2 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 70091 times:
Quoting Bjornstrom (Reply 252): Has anyone discussed the possibility of Thunderstorm updrafts and/or Pilot error leading to increased altitudes above "optimum altitude" for the Airbus 330? They might have tried to fly over the really bad turbulence entering a non-recoverable flatspin due to high speed stall.
Quoting David L (Reply 268): Rather than reroute, divert or turn back? "I'm no expert"... but I doubt it.
It seems like AF447 passed through severe thunderstorms for about 15 minutes with some areas into the extreme. There wasn't a possibility to "reroute, divert och turn back" once they were in the middle of it.
Updrafts could have been something like 75 feet per second making the step from 35.000ft to max operating altitude of 41.000ft pretty quick. When you get into the "coffin corner" it's difficult to get out of - especially in severe turbulence.
Once the wings stall the speed increases which actually increase the stall. I can see a possibility where this leads to breakup of the hull as the aircraft accelerated towards ground.
The mantra "Aviate, Navigate, Communicate" for pilots mean that they did their very best to control the situation and when it got ugly (at stall) they had passed their window of communicating their situation.
Brick From United States of America, joined Aug 1999, 1555 posts, RR: 10 Reply 2, posted (2 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 69946 times:
Bjornstrom From Australia, joined Jun 2005, 327 posts, RR: 1 Reply 3, posted (2 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 69880 times:
Quote:
A high speed stall is when the airflow over the wings start to approach the speed of sound. When this happens the shockwaves/compression produced by the airflow makes the air separate from the aircraft earlier and therefore produce less lift. The aircraft goes into 'Mach Tuck' which is a nose down pitching movement (as opposed to a slow speed stall where the nose pitches up) and eventually the loss of lift is so great that the aircraft stalls.
At high altitudes above the optimum level the high speed and low speed stalls meet eachother. This is known as 'coffin corner'. As you climb your high speed stall starts to come down and your low speed stall starts to go up. Eventually they will meet if you keep climbing. Climbing above your optimum is not recommended because of this and especially in turbulent conditions where you may be flying with only 10knots separation from those stall speeds.
Fadecfault From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 68 posts, RR: 0 Reply 4, posted (2 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 69958 times:
I wonder if they lost an engine after hitting extreme windshear, lost one of the electric buses and that caused the fatal chain of events..
Pure speculation.
NA From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 8618 posts, RR: 11 Reply 6, posted (2 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 69624 times:
"Quoted from LHRjc in PArt 6
Sky are now quoting the Brazil Defense Minister that there is "no doubt" the wreckage is from the missing plane."
That would have been a huge surprise if not. What plane should the discovered seat come from other than ill-fated AF447, from another plane? Then we would now the cause for sure!
KingFriday013 From United States of America, joined May 2007, 1222 posts, RR: 11 Reply 7, posted (2 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 69622 times:
I'm just wondering, when do we think we'll begin to see images/photographs of the situation (i.e., debris, that "seat" that they found floating, etc.)? While I sort of want to see it with my own eyes, I'm dreading the confirmation that the worst has happened at the same time.
-J.
✈ F L Y D E L T A J E T S ✈ Fly with US ✈
Gulfstream650 From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2008, 421 posts, RR: 0 Reply 9, posted (2 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 69312 times:
Going on from the last thread:
Assuming that the plane was traveling at 450 Kts (not taking wind/groundspeed into account) then for the wreckage to be spread over 35nm would have taken 4:40 mins at that speed.
Assuming that terminal velocity of a person or non streamlined object is about 120mph or 180.46 ft/second it would take 3 mins 13secs to drop from FL350 to sea level.
Comparing the 35 nm span of wreckage and yes, tides will have moved the location of the debris, comparing the AF447 with the Air Transat, Flight 236 which glided 65 NM WITHOUT ENGINE POWER from a height of FL345 one would assume that this plane broke apart bit by bit until it could fly no more.
I don't proclaim to be the best pilot in the world but I'm safe
CasInterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 2308 posts, RR: 1 Reply 10, posted (2 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 69291 times:
Quoting KingFriday013 (Reply 7): I'm just wondering, when do we think we'll begin to see images/photographs of the situation (i.e., debris, that "seat" that they found floating, etc.)? While I sort of want to see it with my own eyes, I'm dreading the confirmation that the worst has happened at the same time.
I am sure we will get surface pictures over the next few weeks/months.
However they may need a submersabile to go find the boxes and full wreckage which will be in depths of 8000 to 15000 feet of water. I wonder if the boxes will survive long enough to give information as to what occurred.
Hardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 56 Reply 11, posted (2 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 69292 times:
Also front news of major Brazilian online news, Brazil's Minister of Defense, Nelson Jobin, confirmed that wreckage belongs to AF 330. This is showing live on Sky TV.
AF A330 fell 740km off Fernando de Noronha, the debris were found in radius of 5km. According to the Minister large amounts of metal materials and many seats were found in the area.
757GB From Uruguay, joined Feb 2009, 532 posts, RR: 2 Reply 12, posted (2 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 69111 times:
Quoting KingFriday013 (Reply 7): While I sort of want to see it with my own eyes, I'm dreading the confirmation that the worst has happened at the same time.
I know what you mean. Even if we know what the outcome must have been, seeing images brings it home full force. It´s been more than a day following this story and I still can´t get over it... (well it takes a long time but you know what I mean)
God is The Alpha and The Omega. We come from God. We go towards God. What an Amazing Journey...
Bjornstrom From Australia, joined Jun 2005, 327 posts, RR: 1 Reply 13, posted (2 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 68659 times:
Quote: Quoting Bjornstrom (Reply 273):
It seems like AF447 passed through severe thunderstorms for about 15 minutes with some areas into the extreme. There wasn't a possibility to "reroute, divert och turn back" once they were in the middle of it.
Hardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 56 Reply 14, posted (2 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 68528 times:
The AF A330 wreckage will be collected tomorrow morning by Brazil's Navy warship.
Brazil Navy warship vessel Grajaú will arrive at the location tomorrow 11h, while a frigate (Constituição) will arrive on Thursday at 9h and finally a corvette (Caboclo) will arrive on Thursday at 12h (all BSB time). They are warship belong to Brazil's Navy.
The debris were first located by Brazil Air Force airplane R99 (which is a converted ERJ145 for military surveillance purpose and contains powerful radar system and infra-red equipment) and then later also by a Hercules airplane.
My apologies, Bjornstrom. I managed to ignore the sentence you wrote immediately before the one I responded to.
In that case, can't we just suppose that they may have taken some "heavy knocks" that caused severe structural and/or aerodynamic and/or systems and/or crew problems? There would seem to be many possible "specific" reasons that might result from severe weather.
Mortyman From Norway, joined Aug 2006, 2757 posts, RR: 2 Reply 16, posted (2 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 68107 times:
Apparently the Brasilian airforce siting of wreckage is a belt of 5 kilometers of wreckedge.
Also, several of the pilots of other airlines who has flown the route has seen LARGE white material... What does this tell us ? Large material ? How did the airplane hit the surface ? Apparently it did'nt explode or fall apart in tiny pieces...
Trigged From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 493 posts, RR: 0 Reply 18, posted (2 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 67936 times:
It seems to me that the only way that they could positively identify the aircraft is to have identifiable debris floating such as seat cushions. I am assuming they did a quick triangulation from the last known location, estimated where the aircraft should have come to rest, then sent out search aircraft. I am assuming at this point (and it is only an ASSUMPTION) that they have photographic or visual evidence that the debris is unmistakably AF.
Ohthedrama747 From UK - Scotland, joined Jan 2005, 290 posts, RR: 0 Reply 19, posted (2 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 67943 times:
Boeing747_600 From United States of America, joined Oct 1999, 1258 posts, RR: 0 Reply 21, posted (2 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 67747 times:
Quoting David L (reply 267 in Part6)
Or could it be that the money, effort and resources (none of which are unlimited) have been channelled towards making it far less likely that an aircraft will succumb to a problem that may require a continuous position report in the first place?
Well, if that's the case then one has to be willing to tell the next of kin essentially something along the following lines:
Sorry folks - We expended lots of research, time and money into making the plane safe enough that an accident such as this shouldn't have happened, but now that it did, you have to accept it as as statistical outlier that we simply could not accomodate in our P-99.9999 risked-cost estimates. Therefore, while we'll do the best we can now, you'll also have to accept the fact that in terms of rescue/recovery effeorts, we're sadly not much better than we were 30 years ago.
FlyASAGuy2005 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 5536 posts, RR: 11 Reply 22, posted (2 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 67783 times:
Quoting NA (Reply 6): Sky are now quoting the Brazil Defense Minister that there is "no doubt" the wreckage is from the missing plane."
This is very big news. I actually just saw it on the ticker tape before I logged on. I think we all knew chances of survival was slim to none. I just hope that the families involved at the very least, receive some sort of definitive confirmation through the official channels rather than the media; which I'm sure that they found out before the world did. We can now only hope that they can recover as many bodies as possible although that may be very unlikely.
May God have mercy on their souls and may they rest in peace.
CAM2:"Lightning coming out of that one." CAM1: "What?"
Jammin From India, joined Nov 2006, 133 posts, RR: 0 Reply 23, posted (2 years 11 months 3 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 67556 times:
Just wanted to pass on info that a French research vessel, Pourquoi Pas has been sent to the accident site and it has 2 mini-submarines, which I presume will be used to search for the black boxes.
"France is also sending a research ship equipped with two mini-submarines to the search area.
The mini-subs on the Pourquoi Pas can work at depths of up to 6,000m and the area where the plane disappeared has maximum depths of 4,700m (19,700 ft), French naval experts told AFP news agency. "
Apparently the Brasilian airforce siting of wreckage is a belt of 5 kilometers of wreckedge.
I read that debris were found, rather, in a 5km radius, making it pretty likely its from a single event, probably the one we are looking for.
"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
25 Trigged: R&D money IS finite and you could pump billions into an aircraft line research and still have one crash. As we say in the rocket side of things, "Tak
26 Bjornstrom: Im sure that the heavy turbulence gave AF447 a few "heavy knocks" but that doesn't bring down a Airbus A330. But flying above optimum altitude causin
27 Kelebek: CNN just reported that debris found are confirmed to be from F-GZCP... http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/am...il.france.plane.missing/index.html[Edite
28 TheSonntag: Also bear in mind that this was the first ever fatal crash for an airliner of this modern generation (A330, A340, B777), so statistically this is not
29 Springbok747: CNN are reporting that a seat, orange vests and several other pieces of aircraft wreckage have been found. At least now salvage of the wreck can begin
30 Andybancroft: BBC are reporting more wreckage has been found. Andy
31 LipeGIG: Now they update the information saying that Grajau patrol vessel will be there by 6PM. This ship is coming from Rio de Janeiro and is facing bad cond
32 Bjornstrom: The speed of sound in air depends pretty much solely on the temperature of the air: the colder the air, the slower the speed of sound. Air gets steadi
33 Bjornstrom: The coffin corner or Q-Corner is the altitude at or near which an aircraft's stall speed is equal to the critical Mach number, at a given gross weight
34 Boeing747_600: I would submit that for a tiny fraction of what it takes to make planes safer (money very well spent), the aviation industry could reconfigure ACARS
35 Breiz: May I say that I am impressed by and grateful for the dedication shown by the Brazilian Air Force, Navy and government in finding the AF plane. The p
36 David L: Wow. I'd rather have fewer next of kin to have to talk to. A common response is that cost should not be an issue but how much would people be prepare
37 Bjornstrom: Questions for those with insight: - Were there any primary radar coverage of AF447? - Do we know if the pilots tried to climb above the thunderstorms
38 Seemyseems: Sky is reporting on an 11 year old British passenger was on the flight, how come there is no mention of his parents or no word from them?
39 JonnyBekkestad: Can someone please refer to the the post number of where you guys talk about the messages being sent. There are so many pages to read through and i ca
40 Ohthedrama747: Maybe they were on with him? They will be posting it because he is young and therefore is more tragic. No disrespect to any of the other passengers.
41 LipeGIG: I'm proud of their dedication. Brazilian Navy and Air Force have an extensive list of rescues and missions on the Atlantic, mostly of them are not kn
42 Hardiwv: Thanks. But this is the duty of Brazil. And dont forget that 2009 is the year of France in Brazil (opened by President Sarkosy) and this has been cel
43 Trigged: The first point is valid and should be something that they should look at. The modern aircraft should have a means of precisely transmitting its curr
44 Hardiwv: I echo your words and I am also proud of the Brazilian rescue team comprised by the Navy and Air Force and also Army. It has managed to undertake a m
45 Boeing747_600: There's nothing special about that. So would we all! But since its a given that incidents like this are not statistically avoidable, we will have kin
46 Mortyman: I don't know about his parents, but if we are talking about the same 11 year old that the Norwegian media has been writing about today, the 11 year o
47 Kennyone: Quote from Gulfstream650, thread #6 reply 278 "Assuming that terminal velocity of a person or non streamlined object is about 120mph or 180.46 ft/seco
48 MSPNWA: It's just so sad to hear of an accident like this. I can't imagine what the loved ones of the passengers and crew are going through. In an instant the
49 UALWN: After reading about how obviously dangerous it is to fly through a storm, I want to ask the experts' opinion about something that happened to me last
50 Dtwclipper: This is strange: Visiting Fernando de Noronha Air France Located in the extreme northeast of the main island, ideal for contemplation and diving. It o
51 Hardiwv: " target=_blank>http://www.noronha.com.br/english/to...m.htm Fernando de Noronha is a dream archipelago, with beautiful scenary, crystal beaches and f
52 Jetblueguy22: I hope that all the victims may rest in peace and that their families have closure. I have a question regarding the aircraft's slides. I understand th
53 Tugger: While it is possible for someone to be conscious for a time, there is a far greater possibility that they would die relatively quickly and go unconsc
54 Dtwclipper: That's what I've discoverd. It's just to bad I found out more about it this way.
55 FlyASAGuy2005: Don't mean to sound rude but, you are still alive. I suspect there were no damages or injuries or you would have mentioned that. Everyone's perspecti
56 Lowrider: Not necessarily. You may have gone throught the least severe portion of the storm and he spared you the really bad stuff. Very few professionals woul
57 Keta: I'd like to repeat my unanswered question on a previous thread: do flying inside thunderstorms negatively interact with HF communications? Keta
58 Pilotaydin: yes, along with all other communications such as VHF....
59 Tugger: This was posted in the earlier thread and it is a very good analysis of what weather AF447 may have encountered. http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/a
60 Viscount724: They probably prefer to maintain their privacy.
61 Haggis79: well, actually we are much better than we were 30 years ago... all airliners are equipped with satellite-based EPIRBs these days. However, they didn'
62 ReguPilot: A.net told me to repost, so here it is: You know, that really touched me... well, the whole thing. This represent the feeling of a Pilot as a human an
63 SXDFC: I was going to make a new thread about this, but I figured the mods want everything related to AF 447 condensed to one thread. Oneday I myself will be
64 KE7JFF: For those who ask about if ACARS could send out a position report, it already does. However, not all airlines use it. I know United and NW do for sure
65 Famfflores: Me too. Very impressed. The search area is not inside the 200 nm distance from the continent but inside the 200 nm from the São Pedro São Paulo isl
66 Manny: Hopefully spotting this debris gives some closure to the families of the victims on this flight. I was going through this map and the sequence of even
68 Pihero: Just flying near a single cell is enough to throw your HF communications into the drains. Most of the big airlines'OCCs do.
69 757GB: Jon posted an article on FANS/DPDLC/ACARS and the future: ADS-B: http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/flightblogger/ I know there is a lot of expertise i
70 UALWN: I don't mean to sound rude either, but it would have been physically impossible for you to read any magazine during those 30-60 seconds. I have been
71 Aerdingus: This is all so sad, my heart goes out to all involved. x
72 AT: A slight tangent, but note how air disasters and mishaps are "equal opportunity" strikers. Even top airlines like British Airways, Singapore Airlines,
73 Borism: It depends on aircraft weight, altitude, weather altitude and severity and so on. Your case was probably light aircraft, high altitude in later porti
74 Mortyman: See my posting about this in post 49 of this thread
75 Richierich: Well obviously we are all happy you are alive. We'll never know if it was a good decision to fly into the thunderhead because we don't know exactly w
76 FuturePilot16: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090602/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/brazil_plane This version of yahoo has a weather official saying that the weather sent winds in
77 BOACVC10: An interesting technical discussion video found on Flight Global website. A commentary by David Learmount. I believe David is best described by the Gu
78 Ciaran: This was posted back in Part 3 by F9widebody, Sat Photo 1 Jun in situ http://www.avherald.com/h?article=41a81ef1&opt=0 Good article by Tim Vasquez ear
79 ArcrftLvr: In no way is this meant to sound insensitive, but this sounds eerily similar to the plot of the movie 'Cast Away.' Life imitating art, perhaps? God bl
80 Tietkej: Very touching stuff. Civil aviation has become such a commodity over the last decades. Thousands of flights every day - almost all of them absolutely
81 N83SF: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1902421,00.html Very interesting article. Could WX have played a role in both of these flights?
82 757GB: For those of us who are struggling to comprehend the functionality and limitations of an Emergency Locator Transmitter (ELT), I found this article tha
83 LVZXV: Speaking of faces, you can see quite a few of AF447's victims at: www.oglobo.com Also, quite strangely, it seems that AF is yet to take AF447 off its
84 TrnsWrld: Someone above mentioned something about a reporter saying the aircraft could have been experiencing extreme winds around 100mph. Thats nothing!!!! The
85 PPVRA: The investigation will be conducted by France, and two investigators are already in the country. One will be based in Rio and the other in Recife. The
86 Tano: Surprisingly other media does not mention this fact (yet). I've heard too much about lightnings and bombs since minute one, and nothing on this reall
87 Tano: See http://www.iasa-intl.com/folders/belfast/ADIRU_faults&Tolerances-2.htm
89 Gulfstream650: You both raise very good points. Hypoxia gives the type of euphoria - a carefree attitude, combine that with the how the cold would have effectively
90 LTBEWR: While hundreds of aircraft fly thorugh the region where this flight was planned to fly thorough, with full knowlege of the risks, what can be done now
91 TUNisia: Posted above... but well worth the read! A Past Flight May Offer Clues to Air France 447 http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1902421,00.html
92 Gulfstream650: Further to my post above, Do watch this video regarding Hypoxia. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLQMupV3DLk This guy is in a calm state, he's not scre
93 AADEN: Where was this reported? Could anyone please explain what the messages sent to air france by the flight said? I'm not clear what exactly shut off? Wh
94 Pellegrine: Thank you for this link, I like Time...when they get around to writing their in depth articles!
95 QFMel: Hi all- long time reader, first time poster. I've read through all seven threads over the past couple of days. I'm no expert, and have valued many of
96 Gulfstream650: Very true, either way - welcome to A-Net!
97 Gigneil: Anderson Cooper just broke in on Larry King to announce his top story tonight would be AF 447. NS
98 LipeGIG: Make some sense giving the fact is a Frech aircraft in international airspace.
99 YULWinterSkies: thanks for the link, i guess at this point the question is why / how did the aircraft enter that cumulonimbus? The answer probably is in two tiny ora
100 Trystero: Right. Great entry. Welcome to A.net!
101 Arcrftlvr: " target=_blank>http://www.time.com/time/world/artic....html Wow. It certainly sounds plausible that this same scenario occurred, only this time in a
102 Trigged: That is an incredible first post! I believe that you described exactly what needs to happen. Thorough, deliberate, and exhaustive analysis needs to b
103 Gigneil: That is the maximum service ceiling, not the absolute ceiling. The service ceiling is by definition the altitude the plane can achieve with a 100ft/m
104 C010T3: Because they will be taken by helicopter. I do believe that it will all be taken to the continent from there later.
106 ChrisK2: Hello, If FEN is not the last destination for the debris, but more like something of a "collection point" closer to the search operation, a forward op
107 ChrisK2: Hi, Oops, you beat me to it. My line of thinking, though I would add (and stress) "ships" in addition to "helicopter". If I were them, I would use the
108 Avek00: Posted on Drudge Report home page: Bomb threat AIR FRANCE in S America -- Days Before Flight Disappeared over Atlantic...
109 C010T3: The debris would still have to be transported by helicopter to the island.
110 SeeTheWorld: Yeah, that's credible - NOT! Reeks of opportunism to steer traffic to his site. While sabotage cannot be ruled out, I find it unlikely that the bomb
111 ChrisK2: Hi, *sheepish_look* But why? Sorry, don't know the local geography. No suitable harbour? Please enlighten me. Cheers, ChrisK2
112 Trigged: http://74.125.155.132/search?q=cache...2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=opera The website providing the information has apparently been inundated with tr
113 Starlionblue: There's no reason to take it off. AF still wants to operate that route. The route and the aircraft are no less safe today than they were three days a
114 JBirdAV8r: How do you know the aircraft flew through a severe thunderstorm? Just because you see a big blob on infrared satellite imagery along their route of f
115 Flighty: While a bomb seems unlikely, an A332 going down on a scheduled pax flight is also unlikely. I would caution that it may be a security issue. May be, n
116 Starlionblue: The "Time" article was good, but this part bugs me: Aviation authorities around the world have ordered inspections and procedures to try to eliminate
117 IRelayer: This is unbelievable and tragic. RIP to the victims, and my condolences to family and friends. -IR
118 B747forever: I think he meant the flight number, not the route or a/c. A lot of carriers usually change the flight number after a crash.
119 EC001: Ok, this has nothing to do with any speculating about the cause (causes?) of the plane going down, but just to let you know, that tomorrow afternoon a
120 Canoecarrier: And that makes people feel better why? The same airline operating on the same flight route with the same equipment is no more likely to crash with a
121 B747forever: I could care less about the change of the flight number, but it makes the non aviation people to feel better I think. Imagine to be flying on AA11 or
122 Wjcandee: A question about different procedures between US and non-US carriers related to this incident... This has at all times been a recovery operation, not
123 Peergynt: I've seen a few times on this website pictures of an Air France 777 from which the paint was peeling off. It makes me wonder if by any chance Air Fran
124 Cosmofly: These guys fly into storm all the time with CF propellers and many front seats windows. I would assume they have endured more harsh conditions. http:/
126 JBirdAV8r: I wouldn't read too much into peeling paint. Those 777's are brand new and the peeling paint is probably either a result of the paint formulation or
127 LVZXV: As suggested by B747Forever, yes, I meant the flight number, in keeping with what is a fairly standard practice across the trade, be it for publicity
128 B747forever: Well according to flightstats.com there is still flight AF447. For instance today AF447 departed 6minutes late.[Edited 2009-06-02 21:15:11]
129 KingFriday013: I'm pretty sure these planes are built more strongly than your average commercial airliner; they're heavy, mission-oriented aircraft, not passenger-c
130 SXDFC: One of the reasons why they probably kept is, is due to the fact that AF along with the rest of the world did not know what happened to it, it was on
131 C010T3: Actually, the pair is AF444/7, so it would suffice to change AF447 to AF445. They haven't been renumbered.
132 LipeGIG: Brazilian News reported tonight an interesting Goes Satelitte map showing that the thunderstorm AF447 face was huge and very strong. It was something
133 Starlionblue: Total nonsense. The flight is no more or less safe than before. Just because an accident occurred doesn't mean that probabilities have changed. It's
134 Bond007: Unless you know exactly what happened, there is no reason to assume that the same flight today, or tomorrow, is any less likely to crash. You are no
135 YULWinterSkies: Thanks for the clarification. I was being misled.
136 TSS: Agreed, except that in the case of an airliner it's more like flipping hundreds of coins, and only very specific and mathematically unlikely series o
137 Canoecarrier: Actually not total nonsense. For instance, the probablity that you will get the same side of the coin after consecutive tosses goes down significantl
138 Cosmofly: It is not total nonsense. The crew flying this route will be more alert, will more likely try to avoid any suspicious weather conditions. In addition
139 AirIndia: Statistics always come with a caveat that 'given the conditions remain same'....... So in this case (to add to your arguements) only if all the condi
140 Smcmac32msn: http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=...&oi=image_result&resnum=4&ct=image My guess is it hit somewhere North Equatorial flow and has been carried bac
141 LipeGIG: Brazil Air Force says it continues the search during the night with 3 Hercules C130. Soon the R99 will join the efforts as well as the 2 Bandeirantes
142 Smcmac32msn: It does? Do you have magical coins that one side disappears to make your "stats" even on your 50/50 flip?
143 Revelation: It seems the next big event that could add some clarity is locating the CVR (cockpit voice recorder) and FDR (flight data recorder). Does anyone know
144 Ty134A: What about accidentally shot down? Was there any military activity going on in the area?
145 Bjornstrom: YULWinterSkies missed my point. The pressurized airframe can withstand much higher altitudes before collapsing. The theory is that the fully loaded A
146 BMI727: He doesn't need them. It is the law of large numbers. If you flip 4 times and get 4 heads, the chances of getting a tails goes up each time. Kind of
147 Starlionblue: Indeed. So it's basically impossible to say if a flight is more or less safe than the day before. There are thousands of factors involved. Add that o
148 Smcmac32msn: So in that theory, I should become a gambling addict, because If I spend $400,000 in my life to win a lottery worth $300,000.... I should have a pret
149 ManuCH: In a slot machine it's different, because the odds of winning are calculated by the system. Here we're talking about regular statistics, of events no
150 BMI727: The law of large numbers states that in a random case with two possibilities (like a coin flip), the number of times each possibility occurs will bec
151 Vfw614: Just wondering - how was the cause of accident of the Air India 747 going down in the North Atlantic determined? Were the black boxes retreived or was
152 DavidByrne: Sorry, that's absolutely incorrect! The chances are still 50/50. It's a very common, but easily debunked misapprehension.
153 Axio: "In probability theory, to say that two events are independent intuitively means that the occurrence of one event makes it neither more nor less prob
154 Smcmac32msn: emphasis above is mine Which in theory means the percentage changes to something like say.... 83/17 on the next 6 flips that they will come up tails.
155 BMI727: No I didn't contradict myself, I was just wrong twice in the same sentence. It has been a few years. But actually, the chances of a catastrophic mech
156 TheCol: I've had the fortunate opportunity to be apart of Tim Vasquez's severe weather research/ethisuest community for a short time. He is one of the most r
157 MadameConcorde: This is the full link to the article page on the EZEIZA threat. The link works and you can access the full article with pictures. http://momento24.com
158 Hardiwv: Breaking news: Brazilian media report that AF flight was flying below its altitude level, according to the Brazil Air Force. The flight path had plann
159 Hardiwv: Lipe, according to Brazil Air Force, the Grajau patrol vessel is coming from Natal and departed at 9h30 on Monday and is due to arrive in the area of
160 Acabgd: When discussing previous AF safety record we seem to have forgotten the F100 which aborted takeoff at PUF. Agree there were no casualties on board, bu
161 Haggis79: I don't think they rule out a bomb, they just say it's extremely unlikely. And I agree there - if you were a terrorist organisation, wouldn't you lik
162 Hardiwv: This is the patrol ship Grajau P-40 which has its base in Natal and will be the first official ship to reach the location today: Rgs,
163 FCA767: Thanks for the Picture...Am I right that the last report was finding the debris and no news from the dutch ship...I havent seen any tracker update...
164 Iclcy: A thought I had is a mid air collision with a drug running plane on its way to or from West Africa - a major drug route in to europe.
165 Hardiwv: The Dutch merchant vessel reached the location but is not equipped with radar to find the debris which they can only locate with assistance binocular
166 AAden: Could anyone sum up for me what the ACARS messages said had failed? They're were 12 messges But i don't understand any of the terms that were used.
167 LH526: Must be a big drug running plane flying at FL350 ... given the current market value of say Cocain, your average Cessna or Piper with 100KG of pure co
168 Haggis79: oh please, not more of this "in the US we do everything better than the rest of the world" crap.... it was not a US carrier, and one of them would ha
169 Akhristov: "The last contact with the aircraft was at 02:14 UTC, four hours after take-off, when its avionics automatically transmitted several messages via ACA
170 LHRjc: News conference being held in Paris now, live on TV.
171 Putnik: Last nights AF447 is due to land in 10 minutes or so. I wonder how it would feel to be on that flight, same flight number, same aircraft...
173 CXfirst: Horrible tragedy. Just learned that one of my dads colleagues lost their 11 year old son traveling alone on the flight as an unaccompanied minor. Just
174 Raffik: Was he the British 11 year old returning to a Bristol boarding school after a vacation in Brazil? Terrible
175 Hardiwv: Mapping was already conducted all over the night by the Brazil's R99 with infra-red equipment and assisted by three C-130. The US Awac and French Fal
176 Hardiwv: Correct, he was unaccompanied minor and spent his holidays in Rio. This is the unofficial list of passengers onboard AF flight: http://www1.folha.uol
177 UALWN: I have an 11 year old son who has traveled alone quite a few times between California and Spain since age 8. Learning about this unaccompanied 11 yea
178 LHRjc: Key points from the News Conference with the head of the BEA Paul Louis Arslanian - We will hold no secrets from the public. - We have no idea where t
179 FCA767: Thanks again, I went on an embraer, really good in strong winds, landed at Manchester with 50MPH winds, didn't feel like it though...
180 Kiwiandrew: I thought that the 4 points below were certainly ones which we should all bear in mind
181 FCA767: Thanks everyone and for this info aswell
182 MadameConcorde: Thank you very much for summing up the BEA news conference for us to read, LHRjc. You have done very good work. More elements here on this link: http
183 LHRjc: No problem. There are now questions from the journalists but the answer to most questions is "we don't know, we don't have the facts". One person ask
184 Flanders: Fox now reports: Air France Bomb Threat Before Flight 447 Crash http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,524835,00.html
185 GlobeEx: Well, I think it has been mentioned in the threats before and as not everybody has the time to read all 7 Threads and close to now 1800 Posts I will
186 Hardiwv: For those who are interested, this is the regular schedule of flights from Brazil to FER operated by GOL and Trip: there are 2 daily from REC and 1 da
187 MadameConcorde: This is the wis-est answers to give. It is a fact: at this point in time... they don't know.
188 CityhopperNL: I do get the impression though that the Brazilian Air Force has got more information than they are giving us at the moment, or at least that they won
189 SKY1: Of course it is a total nonsense, but having into account their author I could be not surprised at all. JK changed the number flight MAD-LPA after MD
190 Pellegrine: I wonder if any of the world's navies have submarines in the area of the debris? Sophisticated sonar such as on a submarine would surely find the CVR
191 TGV: " target=_blank>http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,....html "Brazilian authorities reportedly delayed a similar Air France flight from Buenos Aires
192 Wexfordflyer: Agree it would be great if they were found but keep in mind what they said at the press conference, that it will be very difficult to find them and m
193 NA: With journalists expected to publish something new every odd hour this wont change. As for the reasons and chances to find out what happened: The rem
194 Borism: First, navy submarines usually don't descend below 1km, so with a depth of 4km it doesn't matter much whether you're on the surface or 1/4th distance
195 Comeandgo: That would be updraft not wind in the horizontal plain but in the vertical plain, up. Their attitude from the start was, the plane crashed. Which I f
196 Jano: Subs might have an advantage. If the black boxes are still acoustically active, then a sub can triangulate them with a sonar array listening from a l
197 Hiflyer: Couple of thoughts... The use of FEN as a stage point makes immediate sense on two levels...first that it is closer to the area in question and second
198 JumboJim747: Just saw it on the news that they have found the wreckage . All thoughts are with all the families of all on board I'm not sure of they are referring
199 Starlionblue: By the time it was due to land in Paris, it had already been missing for many hours. After checking and re-checking, crash was the most likely hypoth
200 Comeandgo: but that also means that the problems started before they reached INTOL. It may have been a culmination of events rather than one sudden event. maybe
201 Pellegrine: I didn't know anyone was sending military ships. I assumed a submarine which spends it's useful life underwater would have better listening devices t
202 Comeandgo: It had been missing many hours of European night time. It was morning in Paris when AF announced it crashed. I would suppose they first report it mis
204 Haggis79: quite simple - altitude changes are reported to ATC, regardless if you are in a radar covered area or not. If there's a sub in the area, no one is go
205 LH526: As bad as it sounds you can be sure that a plane hitting water surface at night (even in a tried ditching) instantly disintegrates and actualy IS deb
206 MadameConcorde: I suppose not a strategic submarine but rather one that they use for the undersea cable networks.
207 Haggis79: I thought there were acoustic pinging devices on the FDRs as well? Acoustic waves, even if faint, travel well more than just 1km underwater....
208 Borism: Not getting worked up at all, just expressing my thoughts. Sorry if I sounded rude or anything.
209 2175301: Concerning the CVR and FDR: The chances of locating them are in fact quite high.... I am quite sure that they will be able to get a fix on their locat
210 CityhopperNL: Yea but as far as we know there wasnt any ATC communication at the time of the crash. I can understand the Brazilian Air Force knows the plane should
211 Avek00: Based on the BEA's work in the AF SSC crash, where the French bureaucracy worked diligently to generally downplay the French entities involved as con
212 PanHAM: cargo does not explode, never happened on passenger a/c, DGR are properly checked, packed and declared by the shipper, checked in detail by qualified
213 LXA333: RIP to all victims and condolonces to all relatives and friends. The a330-200 is my fave aircraft of all ever and even seeing one less in the sky or a
214 Trystero: Not sure about this. Far, far from being a specialist, but from what I recall of Costeau's docs and others, a sonar dragged by a boat could be far mo
215 David L: When they say they've ruled out a bomb (if that's what they actually said) you can take that to mean that they have no reason to suspect a bomb so th
216 SeeTheWorld: I think it's pretty well-established that the aircraft flew through a series of severe thunderstorms. http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/af447/
217 Haggis79: From what I understood, this is more about the flight plan that was filed planning a change to FL 370 that was never asked for at ATC...
218 Hiflyer: As a fyi the NTSB website states that the pingers on the boxes are good to 14,000 foot depth with a 30 day runtime. The boxes themselves appear to be
219 CityhopperNL: Ah thanks, ok so that could mean the plane was already in trouble at the time the climb was scheduled. I still get the feeling the Brazilians have mo
220 LongHaul67: Going back to the Qantas incident with the faulty ADIRU. Does anyone know whether AF use the same ADIRU on their A330s?
221 StealthZ: Don't forget that what maybe a short transit for an R99, Atlantique or even a C-130 is many days steaming for even the fastest ship. Debris that is o
222 QFMel: Depending on the conditions, a surface vessel with a towed array could detect a submerged object actively emitting at great distances- it needn't be
223 Acabgd: I've been following aviation for some decades, but I've never heard of a O2 bottle bringing down an airliner. Suddenly it gets mentioned in tens of m
224 QFMel: Very nearly knocked off VH-OJK on July 25 of last year; neither obscure nor impertinent.
225 UALWN: Well, there were severe thunderstorms in the area, but they could be avoided. I was on TP178 that night, leaving from GIG to LIS one hour earlier tha
226 Borism: they refer to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qantas_Flight_30 imho very speculative and totally unrelated.
227 LHR380: Thats what I have been wondering. Looking at that link with the weather pictures in it, why did AF447 fly into such a big cell when no other flight o
228 LH526: http://www.tzywen.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=731 This should give an idea of what can / might have happen ....
229 SeeTheWorld: That is, indeed, the $64,000 question. As some have mentioned, these storms can develop and intensify very quickly in the convergence zone and they a
230 QFMel: How long is a piece of string? Beyond things which are agreed- eg 'there was an A332 involved' and 'there was a storm near where it was flying', all
231 COEWR787: You don't know much about statistics or independent events at all, do you now? Because if you did, you would know that the occurrence of a specific e
232 GRIVely: With so little information available and the unfortunate possibility that the FDR's/CVR's may not be recoverable to help answer the unresolved questio
233 Jetfuel: Northrop-Grumman ADIRU are used on the Qantas A330 with the problems. I dont know about AF
234 SixtySeven: This has likely been talked about.... The CBs in the ITCZ are very powerful. They are also more of a challenge to paint on radar than the nicely refle
235 Jetfuel: Just been told those in the Air France jet were made by Honeywell, They are two completely different designs, running totally different sets of progr
236 Hardiwv: Provisional list of passengers. A list of the named crew and passengers aboard Air France Flight 447, which crashed in the Atlantic Ocean en route fro
237 Ac888yow: I can't shake my suspicion that this is what happened.
238 Hardiwv: According to information from Brazilian media the patrol vessel Grajau reached the location of the debris. The Brazil Air Force also confirmed that m
239 COEWR787: but that also means that the problems started before they reached INTOL. It may have been a culmination of events rather than one sudden event. Someh
240 NAV20: Correct, I think - just got the same information. Not conclusive, though - the ADIRU was largely blamed for the serious Qantas 'incident' over Learmo
241 Aljrooney: As a lot of people are saying it maybe weather/turbulence related, is it possible a lightning strike hit one of the composite parts of the aircraft ca
242 Faro: Very sadly, your statement is correct. There is a cost limit to the safety of any commercial undertaking, including aircraft manufacture and operatio
243 Hiflyer: http://www.armytimes.com/news/2009/06/navy_p3_airfrance_060208w/ Navy P-3 to aid search for Air France jet Staff reports Posted : Tuesday Jun 2, 2009
244 Haggis79: This has probably been asked before.... but does the A332 have a center fuel tank?
245 CXfirst: in the norwegian newspapers, they're calling him the 11 year old norwegian boy, he's actually half-half (has both passports), but was travelling on h
246 LipeGIG: It's not clear, but seems that per GOES satelitte map, AF447 could just go thru the worst part of the storm. Brazilian press yesterday said that the
247 LipeGIG: There's a lot of histories about the passengers. A Couple traveling for honeymoon just one day after the ceremony, a family going to Greece for leisu
248 Gigneil: That is a Regional Airlines F100. The 350 vs 370 thing is a matter of their last checked in waypoint. As to finding the debris, another commercial pi
249 Gofly: Part eight of the discussion has now begun, please feel free to continue posting in there: http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo...eneral_aviation/read
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