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Any Hope Of AA (Eagle) Restarting LEX-ORD?!  
User currently offlineGulfstream650 From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2008, 528 posts, RR: 0
Posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 3026 times:

I was wondering if anyone knew if there was any hope of AA restarting the ORD-LEX flight?

I traveled AA for about 4 years, giving them all my business with about 100,000 miles a year then they just dumped my local airport.

Felt cheated, like an exploited husband who gave everything only to have it all thrown back in his face.  Sad


I don't proclaim to be the best pilot in the world but I'm safe
10 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6484 posts, RR: 24
Reply 1, posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 2974 times:

To be fair, AA does still serve LEX via DFW....admitted though this isn't convenient for those coming from the East/South.

I wouldn't hold my breath on it returning. UA already flies it and with higher fuel prices, I don't know if AA is really willing to fight for small markets to ORD.


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22304 posts, RR: 20
Reply 2, posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 2869 times:



Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 1):
UA already flies it and with higher fuel prices, I don't know if AA is really willing to fight for small markets to ORD.

With the cuts at STL, AA is really leaving itself vulnerable in the midwest and east (northeast particularly) when it cuts ORD service. AA is really uncompetitive to a lot of those smaller markets because DFW connections aren't convenient for the entire eastern half of the country.

There's a separate question, too: Can the ORD hub survive without the smaller markets in those places? Beyond a certain point, I feel like it cannot.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6484 posts, RR: 24
Reply 3, posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 2780 times:



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 2):
AA is really uncompetitive to a lot of those smaller markets because DFW connections aren't convenient for the entire eastern half of the country.

I agree with you. I've said it before and I'll say it again, AA isn't doing so hot at ORD these days and STL is down to be just a large focus city.

And it appears UA might be noticing too. We're now seeing UA add routes like ELP-ORD and HSV-ORD. UA might not survive on these routes, but if they do, there's a good chance they can knock AA out. Granted, AA only flies these 1x a day, but as these secondary routes go down, the overall hub becomes weaker.


User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7321 posts, RR: 24
Reply 4, posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 2745 times:



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 2):
AA is really uncompetitive to a lot of those smaller markets because DFW connections aren't convenient for the entire eastern half of the country.

What AA or any airline does is to fly what makes more money as opposed to whats convenient. AA does very well on smaller markets out of DFW but struggles on some at ORD (given the competition mostly). So admitedly for those traveling East or to the Upper Midwest, DFW isnt really in the way, but DFW works great for those going west and northwest. I guess AA finds enough of that traffic to do well on DFW-LEX. Although Ive been puzzled why AA drops certain routes at ORD (DAY was one). As close as DAY and LEX are to ORD, I cant figure out why they couldnt make them work.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 3):
AA isn't doing so hot at ORD these days

Internationally theyre doing fine, on domestic markets they struggle more. It seems more like ORD's domestic flights are there to serve the international flights more so than to connect them to other domestic flights. AA prefers routeing people through DFW for domestic to doemstic. In my mind they need both. DFW isnt always a convenient connection and niether is ORD.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently onlineVIflyer From US Virgin Islands, joined May 1999, 498 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 2682 times:

I wouldn't put much hope into MQ returning to LEX anytime soon for the for mentioned reasons and without some sort of local compensation from local business/city/etc. Of recent MQ s ops out of ORD has been limited to any thing that is either 1. High yield or 2. Supplementing AA s domestic routes that feed international or long domestic. Since 9/11 the routes that MQ has left while high load factors have been low yield due to competition or general ticket sales. ALB (comp with WN and UA), PWM (comp with UA and low tix yields), SWF (low yields), JAX (comp with WN and low yields), to name a few.

Like said earlier AA/MQ tends of recent to route a majority of the domestic feed if it can through DFW as apposed to ORD. Also there is a aircraft crunch when it comes to spare aircraft for expanding routes, pretty much all the CR7s are tied up with current routes, some of the EMB-135s being parked, the taking over of AX s routes out of STL and (speculative rumor running around) RP looking into trying to cancel out of the American Connection contract. There in no free aircraft sitting around without taking one off of another route.

With LEX being served currently to DFW the only possible way MQ would return in this current economic climate would have to involve some sort of revenue guaretee and even then it would have to preform well to keep it (ala XNA-LAX going away even with a gurantee).

Vi



I reject your reality and subsitute my own
User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22304 posts, RR: 20
Reply 6, posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 2645 times:



Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 4):
What AA or any airline does is to fly what makes more money as opposed to whats convenient.



Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 4):
In my mind they need both. DFW isnt always a convenient connection and niether is ORD.

It seems like you can't have both...

You're right that AA doesn't exist to conveniently serve me (or anyone else in the eastern half of the country). They exist to make money. What I'm wondering, though, is whether they are undermining the ORD hub (and thus making it harder to make money) by cutting back on flights to many destinations (some of them-- like BDL or JAX-- not really that small). You seemingly suggest that ORD can work as a purely domestic-international hub, but I'm not so sure.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineLAXdude1023 From India, joined Sep 2006, 7321 posts, RR: 24
Reply 7, posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 2638 times:



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 6):
You seemingly suggest that ORD can work as a purely domestic-international hub, but I'm not so sure.

Can ORD work as a domestic-international hub? Yes. Is that the best thing for AA to do with ORD? I dont think so. Is that what AA seems to be gearing toward with ORD? Possibly.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 6):
What I'm wondering, though, is whether they are undermining the ORD hub

AA isnt an airline that seems to tolerate anything that underpreforms. For example, AA cut ORD-DAY/JAX/LEX despite the fact that it meant, giving up a portion of that market, cutting off whatever connections those flights provided to other flights (international and domestic). Those flights might have been horrible money losers on their own (Im not saying they were, just hypothetically), but maybe AA should have kept them around for the contribution to the ORD hub.

Flights to small and midsized markets preform much better from DFW for AA, so AA always seems to stick with them for that.



Stewed...Lewd...Crude...Irreverent...Belligerent
User currently offlineFlyPNS1 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 6484 posts, RR: 24
Reply 8, posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 2563 times:



Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 7):
Can ORD work as a domestic-international hub? Yes.

I'm not so sure it can work. AA doesn't have enough international flights to sustain that much international traffic. AA is going to need a decent amount of domestic O+D and domestic-domestic connections to keep ORD going.

Of course, it's tough to sustain a domestic hub when you have two other competitors with domestic hubs as well (UA and WN). Not to mention that WN's plans have it slowly picking off some of the high yield domestic routes (MSP, BOS, LGA).

And in LEX's case, AA actually had an advantage in that they were offering both ORD and DFW versus UA with only ORD. But apparently, it wasn't enough.


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 22304 posts, RR: 20
Reply 9, posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 2464 times:



Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 7):
Those flights might have been horrible money losers on their own (Im not saying they were, just hypothetically), but maybe AA should have kept them around for the contribution to the ORD hub.

Right. As they cut more routes, I wonder whether we might see some of them come back because of their contribution to the hub. Put another way, the routes that ought to be cut with $150 oil and 150 destinations (that 150 number might not be right, but you'll get my drift) are not necessarily the routes that ought to get cut with $75 oil and 125 destinations. In the latter case, network connectivity might matter more than pure profitability, and the lower oil price obviously affects the profitability picture-- while the least profitable route at $150 is unlikely to make a ton of money at $75, relative profitability may change more subtly.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineAAAL From United States of America, joined Apr 2009, 125 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (4 years 10 months 2 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 2330 times:

AA originally made the cuts for ORD-DAY/JAX/LEX or to the gulf, back when fuel was at $150. AA was in the talks about bringing it back but because of the economy going south they did not. They were not really making money on them. I remember revenue management saying this was a route just to fill in slots.

As for them coming back maybe. But it's a very small market with low yields. When the economy picks up again and better fuel prices. It will help lower the cost of LEX as a station for eagle.


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