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AF A332 Missing (F-GZCP) - Part 11  
User currently offlineModerators From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 517 posts, RR: 0
Posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 73898 times:

The other thread got too long, so here is part 11.

Here the link to part 10, if needed:



Please use moderators@airliners.net to contact us.
287 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
User currently offlineAirlineCritic From Finland, joined Mar 2009, 1190 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 73930 times:

This is the third version of my list of speculated causes of the accident. Please contribute by adding theories, evidence, or suggesting revisions to the conclusions for existing ones. And I would like to thank everyone who has posted speculations, evidence, and arguments in these threads. The information below is entirely based on your input.

For currently known facts about the accident, please see the Wikipedia at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_447

A. Terrorism or other malicious use of explosives

A bomb explodes in the cargo hold, crippling the aircraft's control systems or starting a structural break-up that eventually leads to loss of control.

Supportive evidence: According to Wikipedia, a bomb threat had been made on an earlier flight. Lack of communications from the flight crew indicates either a sudden event or something which lead to significant problems that the crew had to focus on. This would be consistent with the effects of a bomb. The automatic messages about computer system failures sent by the aircraft could be interpreted either as indications that the aircraft's movements have exceeded the limits that the systems can handle, or as indications about direct damage to the systems. A flash of light has been seen by other aircraft in the area.

Evidence against: While terrorist organizations exist both in France and Brazil, there has been no recent activity. No organization has claimed responsibility for the act. There is no specific evidence about a bomb. Nothing is known about any individuals or organizations who would have non-terrorism related reasons for malicious acts. It seems too big of a coincidence that a bomb would go off at the same time as the aircraft flies through very rough weather. Finally, what we know about the sequence of ACARS messages indicates that loss of cabin pressure was the last message in the sequence. This appears to rule out an explosion, unless it was contained in the hull and only damaged internal structures and components. This seems unlikely. The flash of light was apparently seen from too far to be caused by AF 447 related problems.

Open questions: Where are the cargo holds that are used to carry the passengers' luggage? Are they physically close to the computer and navigation systems that ACARS messages reported as failing? And obviously, physical evidence would be useful.

Verdict: Can most likely be ruled out

References: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_447#cite_note-58 A flash of white light has been reported by other aircraft in the area: http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/0...orld/international_us_france_plane Distance calculation for the flash of light and AF 447 was in Pihero's post in thread 9: http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo...general_aviation/read.main/4435136

B. Explosion or other rapid, harmful reaction from the cargo

The sequence of events is as in the terrorism theory.

Supportive evidence: The sequence of events fits this theory, as it does the terrorism theory. The cargo might have shifted at the time of turbulence, initiating the reaction.

Evidence against: See the evidence regarding the malicious use of explosives. In addition, there is no information that the cargo could have contained something harmful.

Open questions: More information is needed about what was in the cargo, and who cargo was taken from.

Verdict: Can most likely be ruled out

C. Fire

Fire starts in cargo hold, in systems, or somewhere else in the aircraft. Eventually the fire either disables a sufficient number of aircraft systems leading to a loss of control, or incapacitates the crew.

Supportive evidence: Systems turning themselves off one by one could be caused by fire. Cabin pressure warning might have been generated through the crew's actions to let the air out of the cabin in an effort to put out the fire. The location of the debris indicates that the crew might have turned back in an effort to get to the nearest airport (but it has now become uncertain if any debris has actually been found). The long duration of the ACARS messaging (4 minutes) seems to indicate a slowly progressing event like fire, as opposed to sudden event like a bomb or structural failure. The fire might have been initiated when the aircraft hit heave turbulence 10 minutes before the problems began.

Evidence against: It seems unlikely that the fire could have spread fast enough that the crew would not have notified air traffic control. Why would fire happen exactly at the same time as the aircraft flies through extreme weather? Wouldn't a cargo hold fire lead to an ACARS message?

Open questions: More information is needed about the ACARS messages and whether they could have been caused by fire.

Verdict: Possible, but there are several open questions

D. Weather

D1. Turbulence

Turbulence breaks up the plane, or causes it to enter an uncontrollable dive.

Supportive evidence: Very high winds and turbulence were detected in the area. Tim Vasquez's analysis indicates that there were strong updrafts in the exact area that the flight was expected to fly through. The crew manually sent a report of turbulence 10 minutes before the accident.

Evidence against: other flights in the same time frame and route did not encounter significant turbulence.

Verdict: Possible, but there are several unexplained questions. In particular, why was only AF 447 affected? Or did several issues contribute to the outcome, along with turbulence?

References: Tim Vasquez's analysis: http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/af447/ AP reports that the pilots sent a report about turbulence and timing of the various events: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...CJAC&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

D2. Lightning

Lightning hits the aircraft and causes either structural or systems damage.

Evidence against: Tim Vasquez's analysis speaks against this.

Verdict: Unlikely, by itself

D3. Hail

Hail hits the aircraft and causes either structural damage, shuts the engines down, or breaks cockpit windows and incapacitates the crew.

Supportive evidence: There has been rumors about ACARS icing messages.

Evidence against: Tim Vasquez's analysis speaks against the occurrence of significant hail. Unless the crew was incapacitated, mere engine shutdown would have lead to the crew contacting the air traffic control. What we know about the sequence of ACARS messages indicates that the cabin pressure loss happened last, which speaks against the accident beginning with the breakage of the cockpit windows.

Open questions: The sequence of ACARS messages needs to be known in more detail.

Verdict: Unlikely

D4. Ice

Icing causes the aircraft to lose its flying capabilities.

Supportive evidence: See the evidence for the hail theory.

Evidence against: Tim Vasquez's analysis speaks against the existence of supercooled water at the flight level and conditions that the aircraft was flying through.

Verdict: Unlikely

D5. Sensor icing

Speed or other sensors are iced over or malfunction in some other way, leading to the computers or pilots taking incorrect action, causing the aircraft to stall and/or break up.

Supportive evidence: There are rumors of icing-related ACARS messages.

Evidence against: Normally the sensors (such as the pitot tubes) are heated. Icing should not affect them, unless the crew failed to turn the heating on, particularly severe icing conditions existed in the strom cell that they flew through, or hail hit the sensors. Also, Tim Vasquez's analysis speaks against the existence of suitable icing or hail conditions.

Open questions: More data is needed about the actual ACARS message sent by the aircraft.

Verdict: Unlikely

References: BBC article: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8083474.stm

E. Systems malfunction

A repeat of the Qantas incident: ADIRU failures cause the aircraft control systems to believe that a steep dive and/or nose-up is needed, leading to a loss of control and/or aircraft break-up.

Supportive evidence: See GlobeEx's posts.

Evidence against: It seems unlikely that the crew would have been unable to control the situation at FL35, when crews in the previous incidents were able to regain control with the loss of few hundred feet of altitude. There are some reports that AF uses ADIRUs from a different manufacturer. The long duration (4 minutes) of the automatic messaging speaks against a very sudden event.

Open questions: At this point, we do not yet know if AF used the same manufacturer's ADIRU (Litton) as was involved in the Qantas incident. Rumors indicate that the equipment comes from a different manufacturer, namely Honeywell. No previous incident is known on a Honeywell ADIRU.

Verdict: Unlikely, though more information is needed. Perhaps combined with a pilot error and the effects of the bad weather this theory is more likely, e.g., maybe the recovery was not executed in time.

References: GlobeEx's post, reply 71 in part 8 of the a.net thread: http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo...general_aviation/read.main/4433331 and reply 129 in part 9 http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo...general_aviation/read.main/4435136 The Qantas incident is described in http://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/...008/AAIR/pdf/AO2008070_interim.pdf Qantas downplays the link http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...tory/0,25197,25579625-2702,00.html

F. Collision

Collision with another flying object such as aircraft or meteor.

Supportive evidence: This could cause similar effects as a bomb, so in some sense it fits the sequence of events. A flash of light was seen, which might also be from a meteor

Evidence against: There is no known collision with another aircraft. Meteor collision is extremely improbable. The flash of light was apparently seen from too far to be caused by AF 447 related problems.

Verdict: Very, very unlikely

References: White flash of light: http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/0...orld/international_us_france_plane

G. Fuel tank explosion

A TWA800 -like event.

Supportive evidence: Fuel tank explosion, like other explosions, would fit the sequence of events observed through ACARS and lack of a mayday message from the crew.

Evidence against: By this time, the center fuel tank would have been very cold. TWA800 accident required a warm fuel tank for the vapors to develop in suitable quantity.

Verdict: Can be ruled out.

H. Explosive decompression

A cargo door or other part departs the aircraft, leading to an explosive decompression.

Supportive evidence: ACARS message about cabin pressure.

Evidence against: The sequence of messages is wrong, as cabin pressure drop was not the first one.

Verdict: Can be ruled out

I. Crew error

I1. Flying into severe weather

The crew flies directly into the most severe part of the storm

Supportive evidence: Tim Vasquez's analysis of the weather system indicates that it would have been very hard for AF447 to avoid the weather system alltogether, but there is no evidence to suggest that they flew directly into the worst part.

Open questions: Exact flight path is needed.

Verdict: They did fly into the weather, but it is unknown if this was avoidable or if they flew to the worst part. Note that in combination with another problem, such as radar failure the likelihood of this theory would be much higher.

References: Assumed flight path from the BBC article http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8082241.stm Tim Vasquez's analysis http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/af447/

I2. Flying too high

Trying to fly over the weather system and exceeding limits of the aircraft, leading to a "coffin corner" situation and an unrecoverable stall.

Supportive evidence: None, except perhaps the diffult and hard-to-avoid weather system. Tim Vasquez's analysis points to very high updrafts, which might have contributed to an involuntary gain in elevation.

Open questions: Additional information about the aircraft's altitude is needed.

Verdict: Unlikely, it is very hard to believe that an experienced crew would on purpose violate the aircraft's limits

I3. Excessive corrective action

The crew over-corrects the effects of turbulence or high wind in a manner similar to AA587.

Supportive evidence: This might have lead to separation of control surfaces, which in turn might have lead to autopilot and other control systems giving up. The sequence of ACARS messages might match this situation.

Evidence against: A330 is a fly-by-wire aircraft which may not allow excessive control input. On the other hand, the first ACARS message received indicated disengaging the autopilot and the control systems entering the alternate law mode. This mode has less protection against exceeding the safe flight envelope.

Open questions: More information is needed about the exact ACARS messages and in what conditions they will be sent. More information is needed about the effects of excessive control inputs in the A330 fly-by-wire system.

Verdict: Very unlikely, unless something else happened, disabling the autopilot and then the crew accidentally exceeded the structural limits of the aircraft.

J. Prior damage from a ground collision

The aircraft in question collided in 2006 with an Airbus A321 aircraft. An undetected problem in the wing of the A330 might have stayed dormant until the airframe was stressed in severe turbulence.

Supportive evidence:

Evidence against: The maintenance procedures for inspecting and correcting collision damage are quite extensive, and it is hard to image something was missed.

Verdict: Unlikely

References: http://www.jacdec.de/news/years/ALL2006.txt

K. Combination of factors

K1. Systems failure and crew error

A systems failure initiates an event and the crew fails to respond properly or in time. For instance, a radar failure might lead to the crew flying blind into the worst part of the weather. Or disengaging the autopilot or Airbus flight envelope protection leads the crew to overstressing the airframe.

Supportive evidence: There is no strong evidence of any single event that is know to bring down the airplane. There is evidence of some of the control systems (autopilot, ADIRU) shutting down. While these events should be recoverable, it is easy to imagine a crew error that exacerbates the situation, particularly in bad weather.

Evidence against: There is no information about any errors by the crew. Many of the systems, such as the radar electronics, have backups, and are not expected to completely fail.

Open questions: CVR and FDR are needed to find out more.

Verdict: Possible

K2. External event and crew error

Icing, turbulence, lightning or lightning causes an upset, and the crew reacts in an inappropriate manner or fails to recover in time. Or, alternatively the crew makes an error in setting the proper speed for the type of weather (turbulence, updrafts) which later leads to a stall or a spin.

Supportive evidence: There is no strong evidence of any single event that is know to bring down the airplane. There is evidence of conditions that are potentially harmful (like turbulence), but that are known to be experienced by a large number of aircraft, so its not clear why these events alone would have caused the accident. But it is easy to imagine a combination of two problems, or one problem and a crew error to lead to a disaster.

Evidence against: There is no information about any errors by the crew.

Verdict: Possible

Open questions: Again, CVR and FDR are needed.

References: Incorrect speed has been mentioned in the press as a possible cause of the accident: http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/0...orld/international_us_france_plane

K3. External event leading to fire

Turbulence rocks the plane, leading to a short circuit and fire. Lightning hits the plane and causes a fire. The fire eventually spreads to the whole aircraft.

Supportive evidence: The crew reported turbulence, and at least turbulence and maybe even lightning is known to exist in the area. For the other evidence, see the fire theory.

Evidence against: See the evidence regarding fire; it is odd that no ACARS or crew message would have been received from a slowly progressing event such as fire in the cargo hold.

Open questions: Again, CVR and FDR are needed.

Verdict: Possible, but there are open questions

References: CB97's reply 105 on thread 9: http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo.../general_aviation/read.main/443513 Tim Vasquez's weather analysis: http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/af447/

User currently offlineSkane340 From Sweden, joined May 2008, 94 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 73407 times:

As we are still "missing" the AC and do not know where it went down. I would like to ask someone here if we can get a map with following positions included:

1) Last position of the AF 447
2) Position of the Air Comet flight when they saw the bright light
3) Location of parts in the water
4) Wind directions

I also want to ad some comment on this forum, all opinions should be allowed, but stop behaving like small children.

[Edited 2009-06-05 00:06:32]

User currently offlineDanfearn77 From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2008, 1851 posts, RR: 8
Reply 3, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 73272 times:

Sorry if it has already been mentioned as i have only just woken up and not read through the other threads, but the BBC is reporting that the debris is not from the AF jet.



'Debris recovered from the Atlantic by Brazilian search teams does not come from a lost Air France jet, a Brazilian air force official has said.

Brig Ramon Borges Cardoso contradicted earlier reports that debris had been found, saying "no material from the plane has been recovered".

A wooden cargo pallet was taken from the sea, but the Airbus A330 had no wooden pallets on board.'

Eagles may soar high, but weasels dont get sucked into jet engines!
User currently offlineManuCH From Switzerland, joined Jun 2005, 3031 posts, RR: 44
Reply 4, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 73200 times:

I will re-post this as it probably got lost at the end of part 10:

Is there a way to obtain the directive Airbus issued to the operators, with its exact wording? It would probably be more useful this way than reading it after having it re-phrased by a journalist.

Never trust a statistic you didn't fake yourself
User currently offlineSebolino From France, joined May 2001, 3740 posts, RR: 4
Reply 5, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 73123 times:

Quoting Danfearn77 (Reply 3):
Sorry if it has already been mentioned as i have only just woken up and not read through the other threads, but the BBC is reporting that the debris is not from the AF jet.

I heard the same this morning. Very bad news. It seems the mystery may thicken.

User currently offlinePVGAMS From China, joined Apr 2009, 56 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 73056 times:

don't know if this was covered in previous posts but this link shows some of the debris found.

(in dutch)


[Edited 2009-06-05 00:23:46]

User currently offlineKL577 From Netherlands, joined Oct 2006, 782 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 72753 times:

Quoting PVGAMS (Reply 6):
don't know if this was covered in previous posts but this link shows some of the debris found.

(in dutch)

Even the "Telegraaf" reports, just like other media, that the debris found is NOT likely from the Air France flight.

User currently offlineOgre727 From UK - England, joined Feb 2005, 746 posts, RR: 2
Reply 8, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 72621 times:

I just turned on my computer... does this mean that we are back to square one??? we have no plane at all??? the way it was worded in some newspapers made it sound like SOME of the debris found was not from AF447... but that's not the same as saying that NONE of the debris found comes fro the A330... can someone clarify????

And if so... this is beyond horrible. 4 days after and no plane???

User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 22175 posts, RR: 59
Reply 9, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 72470 times:

Quoting AirlineCritic (Reply 1):
This is the third version of my list of speculated causes of the accident.

I appreciate your summary, but do not so much your "Verdicts" as we don't have enough information to come to 1/2 the definitive conclusions you have attributed to "us." Maybe "prevailing opinion" would be a better wording?

Without the VFR and/or FDR or any of the wreckage, it's too soon to rule out things.

As for cargo in the hold, terrorist threats, maintenance records, etc., etc., just because information hasn't been made public doesn't mean it doesn't exist at all. That's a bit of a logical fallacy.

Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineThirtyEcho From United States of America, joined Dec 2001, 1741 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 72144 times:

I'd have to agree with Pihero in segment 10, this thread has gotten ridiculous and I won't have anything more to do with it.

It was the poster in segment 10 who suggested that passenger aircraft be equipped with ejection seats that did it for me.

I'm punching out, folks.

User currently offlineComeAndGo From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 1064 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 71972 times:

According to Bloomberg News the investigation has only two established facts. Sever weather and inconsistent and different speed measurements. Apparently the investigators also have the last 14 minutes of data from the planes ACARS messages and therefore don't really need the FDR. They do want the CVR. From Tim Vasquez analysis the weather could have created such cold temperatures to freeze the pitot tubes.

727forever reply 252 - part 10
I have seen vertical shear once and it was inside of a powerful thunderstorm. Our radar failed and we were vectored into the area by ATC. We had been told that the thunderstorms were further out but this turned out to be bad information. The result was inside of this thunderstorm the airspeed was impossible to control. To keep the airspeed above a stall and under the Vmo was crazy. I was power on and power off quite a bit and didn't really worry about altitude but just maintained a wings level attitude and as close to 0 pitch as I could. The airplane altitude and vertical rate was all over as well. We were lucky in that we just brushed the edge and made it out within 2 minutes. The airplane had extensive hail damage and did receive structural damage to the internal structure of the wing. This airplane type was notorious for radar failure and I certainly learned that day to never fly into the clouds when convective activity could be present with a cranky radar.

Now imagine 100mph vertical updraft and add to it Airbus's recommendation on flying in thunderstorms. It's pretty clear we're talking weather here and nothing else.

[Edited 2009-06-05 01:07:37]

User currently offlineFlySSC From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 7494 posts, RR: 56
Reply 12, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 71954 times:

The Brazilians were in a hurry to announce they have found the debris of F-GZCP without any proof or evidence ... This is in "continuity" with all the bullsh*t their media announced since the lost of AF447 (sms received by some families of the passengers, etc ...).
They announced they have found an "orange life buoy" and all the medias jumped on that. Do you know any civil airliner equipped with "buoy" ? this was an Airbus, not the Titanic !

I am writing these words at 9:50 AM Paris time on June 5th.
I was at AF Headquarters until yesterday evening late and the only SERIOUS information we had from the French rescue teams in the area (French Army using Awacs a/c and others) was : we have not found a single piece of the Airbus.

It is really not fair to play with everybody's nerves, especially the families of victims, in making some "sensational" announcements without any evidence. This is not a "reality show" on TV Globo or TF1.

User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 13, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 71854 times:

Quoting ManuCH (Reply 4):
Is there a way to obtain the directive Airbus issued to the operators, with its exact wording?

According to this (seemingly pretty reliable) site, it isn't yet an actual document - it was sent overnight by telex. It does seem as if they're on to something important, though - possibly wrong speed indications due to icing or other causes.


"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineOA260 From Ireland, joined Nov 2006, 30073 posts, RR: 59
Reply 14, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 71690 times:

Quoting Danfearn77 (Reply 3):
Sorry if it has already been mentioned as i have only just woken up and not read through the other threads, but the BBC is reporting that the debris is not from the AF jet.

Yes I heard the same. So the theory that it was not caused by an explosion as there was an oil slick is now back on the cards. As always with these events nothing can be ruled out until all the facts are in.

User currently offlineFlySSC From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 7494 posts, RR: 56
Reply 15, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 71605 times:

Quoting ComeAndGo (Reply 12):
Apparently the investigators also have the last 14 minutes of data from the planes ACARS messages and therefore don't really need the FDR.

What another bullsh*t !!!
The information sent by ACARS are nothing compared to the amount of information provided by the FDR.
If ACARS information were sufficient, we would ll know already what happened.

User currently offlineComeAndGo From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 1064 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 71499 times:

Quoting FlySSC (Reply 13):
It is really not fair to play with everybody's nerves, especially the families of victims, in making some "sensational" announcements without any evidence. This is not a "reality show" on TV Globo or TF1.

maybe not on TV Globo but certainly on A.net.

On a side note: why use Awacs planes? Aren't they used to find flying aircraft ? The plane is in the water not in the air. I think they're using an Atlantic to spot stuff sticking out of the water like a periscope of a submarine

User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 17, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 71463 times:

Further down that site I found this:-

"Some of the debris collected in the search area is material washed off or thrown off cargo shipping. A large fuel slick has also been identified as maritime in origin. However real wreckage from AF447 is also being collected by helicopters and delivered to search vessels with many vessels still en route to the debris areas from France and Brazil. No bodies have been sighted and none are expected to be found this far into the search......."

That rather confirms a CNN report I heard this morning that investigators had said that they were finding some debris from the aircraft - but that it was all 'small.' The only articles specifically mentioned were 'flotation devices.'

"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineHagic From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 210 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 71362 times:

Quoting ThirtyEcho (Reply 11):
I'd have to agree with Pihero in segment 10, this thread has gotten ridiculous and I won't have anything more to do with it.

It was the poster in segment 10 who suggested that passenger aircraft be equipped with ejection seats that did it for me.

I'm punching out, folks.

Completely agree. Even the Brazilian authorities are retracting previous 'official' statements.

I'm off as well.

There's only one freedom of the press: That of the survivors - (G. Arciniegas)
User currently offlineBorism From Estonia, joined Oct 2006, 431 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 71032 times:

Quoting OA260 (Reply 15):
Yes I heard the same. So the theory that it was not caused by an explosion as there was an oil slick is now back on the cards. As always with these events nothing can be ruled out until all the facts are in.

I haven't read them saying that fuel spill is not from AF447 though? Have they even taken samples to determine whether it is Jet-A or Diesel or oil or whatever? I doubt so.

Anyway, this catastrophe is very very distressing. The plane has been missing pretty much without a trace for 120 hours!

I certainly see major rethinking of how we use ACARS, ELTs, ADS-B etc.

User currently offlineFlySSC From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 7494 posts, RR: 56
Reply 20, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 70586 times:

Quoting Borism (Reply 20):
Have they even taken samples to determine whether it is Jet-A or Diesel or oil or whatever?

They did. This is not Jet-A fuel . it's oil ... from a cargo boat.

Now after only 2 posts on this Topic, I am off again this thread and off A. Net.

User currently offline757GB From Uruguay, joined Feb 2009, 702 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 70562 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 18):

Thanks for the information NAV20. I insist on my view that even though some unrelated debris has been found, some debris will prove to be from AF447.

Let's keep in mind that these things do take time. True, the airplane has been lost for several days but this is not an easy search by any means. Properly equipped ships are probably just arriving, and a search in such a big area will take time. In a way it has been nerve wrecking because we're all waiting for answers. Some people are jumping to conclusions rapidly while others are fed up and leaving the thread. The media keeps publishing the same words time after time and we bring it here hoping to get the scoop on something important. Please take the time to read what has been posted.

God is The Alpha and The Omega. We come from God. We go towards God. What an Amazing Journey...
User currently offlineBurkhard From Germany, joined Nov 2006, 4613 posts, RR: 2
Reply 22, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 70362 times:

The news here state that the first objects fished out of the water yesterday are not of aircraft origin. The search area had been reduced to 6000 sqkm due to the first findings, and 5 ships are in that area now. Still in 6000 sqkm there is a lot of debris in the oceans, so it can be that today, it show become day in that area soon, something can be found that is positve. If not, the area to search has to be made wider again.

There is a lot to learn from this accident already. Permanent flight tracking so that the dispatch center knows where an an aicrafts is with GPS precision every few seconds, permanent access of the pilot to actual weather information should get priority to IFE and WIFI in the cabin. Both of that should be mandatory in a due time for any aircraft flying over water for long.

User currently offlineWjcandee From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 6263 posts, RR: 24
Reply 23, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 70132 times:

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 23):
Permanent flight tracking so that the dispatch center knows where an an aicrafts is with GPS precision every few seconds

Sorry. I still think every 90 seconds is good enough. This isn't a rescue, it's a recovery, and even if they had it down to a one-yard area at the moment it disintegrated at 35,000 feet, the debris field would still come down somewhere in a big area, and then have plenty of time to float around if it didn't sink.

Quoting Burkhard (Reply 23):
permanent access of the pilot to actual weather information

I'm confused. What weather information do you think they didn't have?

What I think that we're learning is that we should thank God for the NTSB in this country. With all it's flaws and leaks, the party system involves a level of precision and science that seems to be sorely lacking in other parts of the world. The media can speculate all they want, that's their right, but the kind of stupidity that's coming out of the mouths of some government officials (e.g. "We'll be able to figure out what happened from the maintenance messages, we don't need the CVR or FDR.") is sad. (Yes, an exhaustive analysis of the meaning and origin and timing of those messages can be more useful than folks think at first blush, but we need a lot more for a definitive report.) That they further think that they can come up with a preliminary report in a couple of weeks is pathetic, and smacks of a desire to get this thing "Case closed."

[Edited 2009-06-05 02:00:06]

User currently offlineDanfearn77 From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2008, 1851 posts, RR: 8
Reply 24, posted (6 years 11 months 4 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 70027 times:

Quoting Flood (Reply 9):

I would hardly say its a mess. Like i said i had just got up and read it on the BBC. In any case, its the first time it has been posted on this segment. And i for one have missed a few segments as they are moving that fast, so it could help someone who, like me, hasnt read or hasnt got time to read all 250+posts in number 10.

Eagles may soar high, but weasels dont get sucked into jet engines!
25 Post contains links Faro : A passage in the article here: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article6430398.ece may be construed as indicating that the last 4 m
26 Mandala499 : For posts in #10... When we thought we've seen it all, we haven't! Such is life *sigh* Indeed. That's why I haven't posted much on this topic series..
27 Hardiwv : We also had a lot of contradictory information coming from AF itself (last msg sent by pilot, etc), French investigation team (who jump to conclusion
28 Burkhard : 90 seconds is 20 km. While it would help in this case, an autonmous device that lives as long as it crashes and emits position every 9 second could he
29 Pihero : Incorrect. There are two Atlantic II anti-submarine long range patrol aircraft and one Falcon 50 "SurMar" (maritime surveillance), plus the AWACS.
30 Hardiwv : The Atlantic II have not arrived to the location yet. There are 2 French aircraft, as i said, 1 Falcon 50 and 1 AWAC. 1 US aircraft and 9 Brazilian a
31 QFMel : That was my understanding too- when are they meant to arrive on station again?
32 Pihero : Check your sources. The Atlantics operate from Dakar, as does the AWACS.
33 FlySSC : Wrong Hardiwv. Pihero is right : The first Atlantic II from the French Navy based at DKR started searching as soon as Monday. A second aircraft Atlan
34 Skane340 : Properbly I am the only idiot in this forum not getting it.... which location?? There is until now no know location for debries / impact of an airpla
35 Toulouse : Not really surprising, is it? Given the mystery surrounding this accident, and the simple fact there is still, 4 days later, no confirmation that a s
36 TristarSteve : Don't believe all you read in the papers. FDR data is NOT transmitted. Perhaps one day when there are many more satelites and a way is found to reduc
37 OA260 : Yes I heard it on two different news reports that it was ruled out .
38 Skane340 : Checking the last messages... so no one in here really can tell where the plane went down...
39 Post contains links Starlionblue : Don't know if it was posted in previous parts, but there is some interesting, if no precisely pertinent, info here. http://www.time.com/time/world/art
40 Hardiwv : The base where the operations are taking place, ie FER/NAT/REC. The French Navy vessels have not arrived yet, they are due to arrive end of weekend.
41 Jetfuel : Exactly. No one here knows why either. People need to s l o w down a bit and realise that things are going to take a lot of time ie. weeks/months may
42 Giopan1975 : A lot of speculation going on but still only speculation with lots of unanswered questions. What evidence is there about the "severity" of the turbule
43 Danfearn77 : Well said.
44 Moriarty : Thanks for a very serious and thorough post, good summary. The way it is made makes it easier to separate facts from speculations and personal opinio
45 Sandager : Some of you guys in here speculate in a fire in the cargo bay. I just wondered.... Would a fire in the cargo not be reported on ACARS? I do not know I
46 PanHAM : just for records, "wooden cargo pallets" are regularly used for cargo and it is highly likely, that any aircraft carrying cargo has such pallets load
47 TristarSteve : Yes it would. All Warnings and Cautions are recorded, and none were. In fact looking at the list of messages, except for two relating to the Toilet s
48 Post contains links ComeAndGo : It's called coffin corner for a reason. You obviously just joined the discussion here. Meteorologists like Tim Velasquez who specialize in aviation w
49 757GB : All the media is reporting the same thing this morning: the debris recovered is not from AF447. However when going into detail they only refer to that
50 ComeAndGo : yes, but apparently they found a bunch more stuff around that pallet that was not from the flight. For an instance, the orange boy that looks like so
51 ComeAndGo : It's probably unlikely at best. The airline seat is made of metal and foam. The foam may float. The metal frame sinks. So the question is, is that fo
52 CityhopperNL : So far there have been 9 parts almost completely filled with speculation and possible theories, which is rather extraordinary. Some posts have A unti
53 LH648 : Can be FDR located by submarines? FDR should send ultrasonic signals and possibly submarines can locate it from far distance...
54 OffshoreAir : What happened to that giant 23ft long piece they found? What did that turn out to be?
55 PanHAM : That is exactly why I wrote this to prevent answers such as yours
56 LH648 : Piece of small ship : ( So even approximate location is still unknown?
57 OffshoreAir : Must not be a ship anymore then.
58 Burkhard : Even the Atlantic may have to refuel I assume. Crews need to be exchanged. Anybody knows if there is clear sight today, or is it cloudy again. There i
59 Hardiwv : Another issue raised is about the "civil responsibilties" relating the accideent. The Governor of Rio has raised the matter that AF and Airbus would n
60 Logos : I just read on the pprune.org forum that pitot tube icing may have been a contributing factor, leading to false speed information and, consequently, i
61 Osiris30 : Pihero, on this we both agree. I think it's clear that something (rather obviously) went very wrong, and without any clue as to the AC and the locati
62 Jmbarros12 : 100% Agreed. TWA Flight 800 is a good example of how long it takes to get the answers for this kind of mystery. In that case, the authorities took al
63 LTBEWR : Many of us here are very fascinated and concerned about this terrible loss of AF447, but also very frustrated by the lack of evidence so far. That is
64 Pihero : OK. Airbus, from the informations provided by the ACARS messages, and with the BEA approval has just published an AIT with recommendations on "flight
65 Osiris30 : Do you happen to have a link (or the text assuming it's not proprietary)? TIA
66 JFernandez : Just a couple of thoughts here... I'm not sure why everyone is hating on this thread so much. The reality is we have a situation rather unprecedented
67 Post contains images Mandala499 : OK, I'm going to give this one shot... after discussing this with several people, and collected whatever publicly available data there are... My tempo
68 ChopperJohnNYC : I'm guessing this is related to legal issues. I'm thinking "responsibility" in a different sense- It is hard to believe that in the year 2009, it cou
69 Mandala499 : Well in the case of Adam Air 574, they had the radar plot before it went missing, and it still took weeks to find where it was (let's not talk about
70 Osiris30 : From the first one you posted... 27-23-06... F/CTL RUD TRV LIM FAULT If I'm reading that right (and I'm welcome to be corrected) but doesn't that ind
71 Mandala499 : Yes, look at the ACARS stuff, read from bottom to up for sequence, although the sequence are of no guarantee. The Rudder Travel Limiter is controlled
72 Jetfuel : Its the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. There is also the chance that the plane may have hit the water complete and subsequently sunk - which whilst le
73 D L X : As I read the first post on this thread, I notice that pretty much all of the possibilities mentioned have the _verdict_ as unlikely, improbable, or s
74 Oldsmoduck : How can they find all sorts of airplane related debris in the exact area this plane presumabily went down, then suddenyl none of it came from this pla
75 TristarSteve : Yes it is a problem with the rudder limiter. The limiter needs an airspeed input to operate, it probably lost it and decided that it had a fault. It
76 Mandala499 : The same thing happened during the Adam Air 574 search operations... You wouldn't believe the amount of garbage they found that they thought was from
77 Osiris30 : I was reading that back up, but if the rudder limiter has failed, the AC is in heavy turbulence, the crew doesn't realize the limiter is offline you
78 Golftango : Has it been confirmed if the other debris is from another aircraft? Possible mid-air collision?
79 Osiris30 : Well I was seeking clarification if that message can be generated by the rudder physically exceeding limits as well. Say the linkages fail in heavy t
80 Post contains links NAV20 : Thanks, Mandala499 - most interesting, as far as I can understand it. No wonder the first thing they do when you go for a licence is test your eyesig
81 Mandala499 : Well then post them... I think we'd all be interested in plausible theories... The rudder limiter off line is a possibility, the question is, why wou
82 Mir : They did get the warning, though. So they should have known about it. -Mir
83 Post contains links OA260 : Airbus Warns Airlines After Air France Crash June 5, 2009 Brazilian search teams on Thursday scoured choppy Atlantic waters for remains of a crashed A
84 Oldsmoduck : Shoes, uninflated liferaft... they initially suspected it was from the plane, but turned out it was from a ship.... these things unfortunately happen
85 Sebolino : Very nice post Mandala ! The "ISIS" line is indeed 3412, not 3422 on the ACARS list you sent. I'm wondering why we have messages from the 31/05 mixed
86 Post contains links KingFriday013 : " target=_blank>http://oglobo.globo.com/fotos/2009/0...s.jpg If you want to see the image, click on the link: http://oglobo.globo.com/fotos/2009/06/04
87 Pihero : I certainly do not think so. The rudder travel limiter declaring a fault doesn't mean it's playing about. Most of the times, it has lost its airspeed
88 Mandala499 : Here's a quick possible explanation: A severed tail would mean loss of HYD, and an ACARS MX message would likely be generated in time (sudden loss of
89 Sebolino : Another novice question: If the plane did stall because it was too slow, wouldn't have had the pilot way enough time to re-take control of the plane a
90 NAV20 : Not necessarily, Mir. I recall that the Qantas crews who had the two 'incidents' in A330s over Western Australia recently said that messages were bee
91 Catseye : No. At this point the Pilot's number 1 priority is to fly the plane. Unfortunately there is no distress button a Pilot can press to transmit FDR/CVD
92 SEPilot : But the messages received from AF447 do not seem to be consistent with this-I think Mandela499's analysis is the best I've seen so far.
93 Mandala499 : Well has that been dismissed? If it was and they couldn't explain what it is, I'd start raising the alarm that a ship might have gone down in the are
94 LongHaul67 : With all the ADIRU's failing would the pilots still have a functioning attitude indicator? Would they have any way of knowing whether they were in lev
95 KingFriday013 : Would that be a good idea moving forward? Not debris? Ouch. Thanks. -J.[Edited 2009-06-05 07:17:37]
96 Osiris30 : The Turkish 737 is all I have to say about warnings and crew reaction. Thank you. Hence the reason I ask the questions To Mandala: I wasn't suggest t
97 Famfflores : That´s the yellow buoy mentioned earlier, already disregarded as part of the plane. looks like there is even a rope attached to it, sure looks like
98 Pihero : The multiplicity of the failures ADR1, 3, ADRs disagree, ISIS, Pitot Probes, ... seem to concern all pitot sensors. They're powered by different elec
99 Honeythief : It's been reported that it was part of a small boat or ship. Just looks like a buoy to me ! The seas are full of rubbish that has either been washed
100 Logos : Thanks, Mandala. Very well presented and squares with a theory gaining currency on pprune.org for the same reasons. The notice put out by Airbus does
101 LMML 14/32 : I think all that had to be said has now been said. let us lay this case to rest until there is something really conclusive that one can post. Let us g
102 LongHaul67 : I find it incredible that such a marine buoy wasn't excluded as coming from AF447 immediately.
103 Post contains links NAV20 : First reasonably-informative press story on Airbus' telex - they do apparently suspect iced-up pitots. Don't readily see, though, how that (serious as
104 Mandala499 : Yes they should, BUT, based on? No horizon, no attitude direction indicator... they don't carry trim bubble indicators like they do on submarines as
105 Giopan1975 : Absolutely no hard evidence at all so far that plane hit any "super cell" and that weather played even the slightest contributing role in the accident
106 PanAm1971 : This is what I was trying to get at (and doing a bad job of) yesterday.
107 Pihero : Thee is no hard evidence. Just likelihoods. As a matter of fact, the very first message : AUTO FLT.....A/P OFF, followed by : F CTRL.....ALTN LAW, co
108 IMissPiedmont : This is just getting silly. It almost seems that this is the first airplane crash in history. Since nobody has a clue where or how the crash happened,
109 Post contains images NAV20 : So was I, Panam1971 - see Post 13 above!   You can't blame people though - I've never seen any threads as long and fast-moving as this. Except maybe
110 PanAm1971 : I feel that we are closer to knowing. I'd still feel farr more comfortable if the boxes could be recovered... to nail it down as much as the recorded
111 Mir : It seems like it should. Not to mention very different flight conditions. The point about multiple warnings is a valid one. There aren't any warnings
112 AirNZ : I perfectly understand what, and why, is being said above and, for the great majority of it I would tend to agree. However, there is also a greater d
113 Famfflores : Yeah, after seeing the picture.... My guess is some miscommunication happened here. If confirmed that in fact no parts of the plane being found yet t
114 Haggis79 : please read the thread... it has been confirmed that none of the debris comes from an aircraft, but rather from various ships, and so does the oil
115 Sidneys : As previous discussed here, I still don't see how would they stall an Airbus Flying in Normal Law, at Optimum altitude for the present a/c weight , a
116 LVHGEL : Well, after reading (not all, mind you) the posts, and news feeds I have a theory of what happened, this theory is mine, and is no more than an specul
117 David L : I don't know why people are focusing on a single stall event, either. There could have been a lot more going on around them. However, if we do have t
118 NAV20 : DavidL, the airspeed wouldn't change due to a windshift. Only the groundspeed would.
119 777jaah : Where I can find the messages sent by tha ACARS (of course, what´s beer relaeased so far)??
120 Comorin : This has been a remarkable thread about a remarkable incident. I'm very thankful to be able to read posts by our superstars - Zeke, Pilotaydin, PiHero
121 Post contains images David L :    You still believe that after the explanations and corrections you got from experts earlier? By your logic, microbursts aren't a problem! Are you
122 WILCO737 : Check my explanations about that in part 10. The airspeed will change for sure with a change in wind. wilco737
123 Linco22 : In no way am I technically minded as some on here, but with almost 5 days gone and nothing recovered, I'm lost as to what actually happened. We know t
124 NAV20 : DavidL, you're now talking not about windshifts but about turbulence.
125 Sidneys : I agree with you. I don't think a stall event would be the main factor and create the problem, and in my point of view, something else did happen. As
126 LH648 : In this thread.
127 TristarSteve : The rudder limiter failure is probably a loss of one airspeed input. It doesnt mean its moved, just the electronics have incorrect inputs. The aircra
128 David L : You've lost me. What do you think turbulence is? .
129 WILCO737 : Turbulence are not only change in windspeed. They are as well change in pressure or temperature as this all effects the density of the air. wilco737
130 VirginFlyer : When there is a change in headwind component (such as when the wind direction changes), there will be an instantaneous change in airspeed, while grou
131 Trystero : A bottle of water wouldn't do it, at least to check if the plane is level?
132 David L : Yes, of course, but it still presents itself to the aircraft as rapidly chaging wind, does it not? In any case, the scenario I gave was quite clear a
133 KingFriday013 : Take a closed, half-full bottle of water. Swing it in a big, vertical loop. See how the water always stays at the bottom of the bottle, even when it'
134 David L : Yes, as in the scenario I gave... Thank you VirginFlyer and Wilco737.
135 NAV20 : Sorry, DavidL, wasn't trying to provoke another confrontation - but you're talking about a 'windshift' so sudden and massive that it would reduce the
136 Trystero : If inertia acts on the water you can feel it too. All my experience in aircraft is reduced to a paying customer, so don't have the slightest clue wha
137 FlyLKU : I would be suprised if the ACARS telemetry contained as much detail as the FDR. Perhaps someone knows how much detail it does contain.
138 VirginFlyer : I am not terribly au fait with the Airbus control laws and envelope protection, but as a general rule (and I am sure someone will right away come up
139 Comorin : That would work only when the plane was level and not slipping or skidding, which defeats the point. The bottle of water (or a pendulum ) merely indi
140 David L : I think you'll find such changes do occur. Even if the change is only +/- 5 kts, the airspeed will change if the aircraft can't respond quickly enoug
141 Boeing747_600 : Actually the smaller the loop the better, to demonstrate your point. The centrifugal force is proportional to the square of the angular speed and inv
142 PHX Flyer : Suffice it to say that it took 4 years to fabricate an answer that satisfied the press and the public. I guess after 4 years the public was simply ti
143 Nycfly75 : Sorry if this was brought up already....Has a cargo manifest been released? It would be curious to see if there was anything on board that would have
144 NAV20 : In the summer here in Oz we tend to have the bumpiest and most fickle air around. But even the Cessna I mostly flew never took longer than a minute o
145 Trystero : Yes, that was my line of thought. If a plane is being kicked in the middle of a storm, as a major nose dive or anything that dramatic I don't think t
146 David L : Nor me. In my defence, I was only talking about whether or not it was possible, not whether or not it was likely. The reason I answered at all was in
147 TristarSteve : Look at post 67 in this part. That is what they have. A list of Warnings and Cautions as presented to the crew on the ECAM
148 Post contains links David L : So the airspeed did change? It took a minute to revert to its original value. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inertia That's why your Cessna probably re
149 Mandala499 : That was fast, but this one is just ridiculously faster ! All that "fighting" was worth it in the end... The quality of a forum be it public or priva
150 PlanesNTrains : I'm just an enthusiast, but I've learned more from the "crazy" or "improbable" posts because of the discussion that they lead to than I have from mer
151 Post contains links VirginFlyer : Or you could just save a perfectly good aeroplane and shoot yourself in the head - will have more or less the same result... CASA produced an interes
152 David L : Incidentally, if my general theory that it is possible for an extreme change in the wind to defeat the stall protection in a FBW Airbus is "just ridic
153 BG777300ER : I'm sure you guys are reading MSNBC and stuff..now they're saying the wreckage is most likely NOT Air France. I really find this weird. It's really no
154 Post contains links Osiris30 : http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/n...sns-ap-brazil-plane,0,115379.story
155 OHLHD : I havn´t written anything to this thread yet as a friend of mine flew the same evening on IB from GIG to MAD just a little after AF 447 left RIO. I i
156 Osiris30 : Because I can't edit.. this sure as heck lends credability to what Pihero and Mandala have said re: pitot issues. Maybe it wasn't 'simple' icing but
157 Nm2582 : In this particular incident, it may be wise to wait for official word from Air France and the French investigation team. Other recent incidents (Exce
158 BA84 : It looks like a float from a fishing net.
159 Multimark : I wondered that myself. The amount of debris is a sad illustration of how polluted our oceans have become. I'd also respectfully ask posters don't ad
160 JakeOrion : It is starting to sound more and more like the plane ditched, and for whatever reason, it sank intact, and quickly. Unless the plane flew directly int
161 Canoecarrier : Containers that fall off ocean going ships float, metal with foam attached floats, we don't know enough about the nature of the debris to discuss why
162 OA260 : That certainly might explain a few things .
163 KingFriday013 : I took down the photo because it's not from AF 447, and didn't want to create any misconceptions. That's probably what it is. -J.
164 Wexfordflyer : I am not dismissing your theory completely but I for one find it very hard to believe that there is some sort of cover up or conspiracy theory. Too m
165 Sniffmom : China Airlines 611 just fell out of the sky a few years back. With that said, I'm not implying that the cause of the AF crash might be the same as in
166 Philhyde : That's unfortunate, but understandable at the same time. They would have likely been the last known pictures of the aircraft.
167 PhB95 : French news radio (state owned) mentioned France sends a nuclear sub (the Emeraude) to search for the wreckage. This as been said on TV too.
168 Honeythief : I think that one of the problems here when items are spotted is one of possible mistranslation between Portuguese/French/English when talking about '
169 Mcg : This opinion is based on what fact or facts? The Atlantic Ocean is a big place, there are substantial ocean currents, the pieces of the aircraft are
170 Acheron : But then that would mean there were some survivors at least. Though that would also explain the lack of bodies, since they could all be inside the pl
171 David L : First of all, the 21st Century is less than 10 years old so it's not easy to say how many airliners should fall out of the sky in this century. Secon
172 Bond007 : No pun intended
173 Post contains links LH648 : Finally they are sending submarine. http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/20...47-sous-marin-nucleaire-envoye.php (french only)
174 Iberiadc852 : With my very limited technical knowledge about everything what is involved in this accident, I can't agree but neither argue about that. But from a l
175 VirginFlyer : When the original debris (which turns out to be unrelated to AF447) was found, I was under the impression the search area was then constrained to wit
176 JakeOrion : Oh, I don't know, perhaps they cannot find a single trace of the aircraft? You would think that an aircraft or ship would have found something by now
177 LH648 : Before aircraft will start to sink it should be landed on the water. But it's hard to land it on the water even being in full consciousness.
178 Thegivenone : I was wondering, have we heard anything about other planes flying a similar route having severe difficulties with the weather conditions?
179 David L : I certainly didn't take it as a bash - maybe I'm too stupid to notice. Seriously, your input has been better than most. I recognise the name but have
180 Decoder : It's very understandable that the public doesn't understand how a large plane full of people can go missing. Mind you, I've been an airplane buff all
181 David L : As far as I can tell, the fact that the reported debris did not come from AF447 only means that we don't know whether the aircraft impacted intact or
182 Post contains links WingedMigrator : Any ACARS gurus to interpret these messages for us: http://www.eurocockpit.com/images/acars447.php
183 ThrottleHold : It's pretty easy to recover deleted photographs from a memory card. There are programs and applictions on the internet to do it with.
184 TristarSteve : " target=_blank>http://www.eurocockpit.com/images/ac...7.php they were in post 67. Been a lot of talk since then.
185 LH648 : Read the thread. If they were not overwritten with the new files... But he should try at least...
186 Borism : It might have been rescue, had SAR teams had proper location information. Not anymore, cause even if someone miraclously survived they're probably (e
187 David L : If they'd survived it would pretty much need to have been a ditching, in which case wouldn't they have been in rafts with some kind of emergency tran
188 Post contains links Sniffmom : This memo has been circulated around the net: "Airbus Industrie A330 Series Aeroplanes AD/A330/1 Pitot Probes 12/2002 Applicability: A330-301, -321,
189 Jbernie : Question, from recent incidents it would appear that the crews have a "button" that can be pressed when a hijack occurs so that they can alert withou
190 Borism : I don't know whether rafts have working emergency transmitter, perhaps someone can enlighten us. I don't think they were able to deploy rafts anyway.
191 Borism : They set transponder code to 7500 - "Unlawful Interference (Hijack)" - that only works in radar coverage area. No big red button with "hijacked" on i
192 Sniffmom : Someone with knowledge of this memo, not registering the date, phones their buddy at the news agency. The news agency writes the story, citing source
193 David L : I still think that a descent from FL350 to a "controlled landing" on the water might have left some time for a Mayday and position report.
194 DaBuzzard : Allow me to put the finger on it David.... In the dark, in a storm on the open ocean, with (apparantly) no functioning instruments......not to mentio
195 Mandala499 : The aircraft, if in one piece on impact, would have had disintegration on or shortly after it penetrates the water. This would mean either you have v
196 Borism : There may be many reasons why they might have been unable to communicate or their communication could not be received. There are only few options how
197 Rquesty : I don't normally contribute directly in this way but there is so much interest in this you might care to note: Developments tonight: 1. Air France ref
198 David L : In the race to be first. Worry about the quality later. Ah, you fell into my trap, thus saving me the dilemma of whether or not to spell it out and ta
199 Post contains links LTC8K6 : Weather does not appear to have been that bad in the area according to this report. Little to no lightning, apparently. http://www.weather.com/newscen
200 Mandala499 : I'm glad someone understands it... Aren't we all? Mandala499
201 Logos : I don't know - perhaps because you've discovered the heating mechanism is faulty and you now suspect pitot icing was a contributory factor to the dem
202 David L : You might want to look at how French law works before reading too much into that, e.g. what usually happens when people die in a transport accident u
203 JFernandez : In a nutshell, because aircraft manufacturers want the absolute #1 priority for the pilots to be the actual resolution of the problem. If there is a
204 KingFriday013 : This just reminded me because it wasn't used in US1549 (perhaps off-topic, perhaps not...), but does the A330 have a "ditch switch" like the A320 fam
205 ThrottleHold : Yes.
206 Post contains links and images Viscount724 : Photo of one of several bins containing small pieces of wreckage from Swissair 111 after dredging the accident site. Other photos of SR111 wreckage r
207 LHFADUS : just a short off-topic question: which thread was the longest so far on a.net? we got to part 11 on this one with most likely many more to come....so
208 Post contains links Trystero : http://sic.aeiou.pt/online/noticias/...ocurar+caixas+negras+do+Airbus.htm Only in Portuguese, but basically says that the French Navy is sending a nuc
209 Toulouse : Indeed. As has been emphasised throughout the day here in France on the local media, this manslaughter investigation is standard procedure under Fren
210 Osiris30 : Well considering there are not 1 but two memo's from AF dealing with the subject and I have read one with my own eyes (and it's *not* from 2002) you
211 Osiris30 : Yep. Every crash pretty much *automatically* results in a manslaughter case. It's just the way the French legal system is setup. If you look at any a
212 Post contains links GlenP : Only been reading this thread, in the hope of hearing some concrete news, as many people are picking up news items/press relases that I migh have miss
213 Zeke : You do not need ice on all ports or sensors or for them to be blocked to disrupt the air data computation, the air data unit of the ADIRU get various
214 Gonzalo : Hello Everybody. I don't have time for reading all the posts of the ten previous threads, so maybe this was already discussed. I remember that the KAL
215 744flyer : I don't know if this has been discussed yet, but if the CVR and FDR are suppose to emit a beacon and tracking signal, then why can't search crews foll
216 Osiris30 : While I can't answer you definitively, I do believe there is at the very least some general knowledge of the currents in the area.
217 Ikramerica : I don't believe they are designed to be high powered long range beacons, but short range beacons to help you find them when you already know the area
218 Mir : While I don't think that windshear was a big issue here, it is worth pointing out that a 250 knots reduction is not necessary to reach stall - only a
219 Prebennorholm : Radio signals don't travel very far in water. Therefore for instance submerged submarines only communicate using acoustic signals. A receiver must be
220 Post contains links Oakmad : I was of the belief that the boxes sense when they are underwater and transmit acoustically, this is the only article I could find to back it up that
221 Post contains links Trystero : Some link's I found in a quick search. http://www.oceanweather.com/data/ http://oceancurrents.rsmas.miami.edu/atlantic/north-equatorial.html http://e
222 ChrisK2 : CVRs or FDRs typically have acoustic underwater locator beacons which begin to emit ultrasonic pulses (or "sounds", if you so will) in the 37-somethin
223 Post contains links PPVRA : "If a plane crashes into the water, this beacon sends out an ultrasonic pulse that cannot be heard by human ears but is readily detectable by sonar an
224 Aviators99 : I'm confused. Has anything been found? This cnn.com quote would say not: But then, what does this mean, from the same article? What "crash site" are t
225 Post contains links WingedMigrator : The Nautile is no ordinary manned military submarine. It is a highly capable mini sub equivalent to the American Alvin. The Nautile is one of the fir
226 BMI727 : Don't subs also use VLF radio and lasers to communicate? Also, aren't the CVR/FDR equipped with pingers to aid the underwater search?
227 Trystero : A nuclear sub as some advantages, namely the ability to stay for long periods under water and the enormous amount of devices that can be used. The que
228 Mir : VLF yes, but it's only useful for certain things. I don't think they can use them for voice. Lasers, if I'm not mistaken, are only for use above the
229 GlenP : BMI727 Subs actually use ULF transmitters, but they are equipped with sensor arrays for other frequency ranges (UHF, VHF & HF). As Trystero has rightl
230 BMI727 : I looked it up on Wiki and it doesn't say if it can use voice or not, but VLF and ULF can only be used to communicate to the sub. The sub must surfac
231 GlenP : Even as an ex-army signals NCO I know that subs can propegate a signal, if required, on ULF, so it will eventualy get through, & they have equipment t
232 Starlionblue : Very well said. It really goes to show how far we have come; how extremely safe flying is today. If nothing else, such a button would be the third th
233 Aidan5151 : I just want to say a big Thanks to everyone participating in this forum topic. I joined airliners.net just before the AF447 disappearance but have eag
234 Post contains links EvilNando : Hi all fellow members, by no means Im an aviation expert, Im just a mere software engineer with a passion for airplanes , but reading the web tonight
235 Nomadd22 : I'm not too familiar with French subs, but an LA class sub could pick up a 37khz ping from many miles away. They have the most ridiculously sensitive
236 Aidan5151 : I respectfully request that the topic NOT BE CLOSED. Why would anyone want to close the topic? So that another one could be opened? People have a gre
237 Osiris30 : Survivable to 20K ft apparently (I think that was posted in part 4)
238 NAV20 : I recall that too, Osiris30. 6,000 metres - which appears to be the sort of depth at that part of the Atlantic. also recall that the location signals
239 KingFriday013 : I strongly second your opinion. This forum is for us to interact and share our ideas and knowledge, not sit and wait. I truly think we should all app
240 Post contains links NAV20 : Reasonably comprehensive article on the pitot tube issue here - only 3 hours old:- (Excerpts) "June 6 (Bloomberg) -- Airbus SAS advised airlines more
241 Legacytravel : Yeah I just read this and almost choked on my smore. Why dont we just equipe planes with a an inflateable bubble system, similar to what the MARS lan
242 Theredbaron : " target=_blank>http://www.aeroclubdetoledo.com/cont...rance The best explanation so far...
243 NAV20 : They'd have to fit 'SVR' (Seating Voice Recorders) in too. Andit wouldn't be long before you heard a harassed mother saying, "George! STOP fiddling wi
244 Canoecarrier : Agreed. There is a difference between "certified" and actual. That difference may be small with everyday household items, but with military spec or i
245 747megatop : What are the limitations in designing black boxes that can float? If the black boxes don't get detached from the tail and sink along with the tail the
246 LTC8K6 : I thought pitot tubes were heated?
247 BMI727 : I don't know about that. I think that US subs are the best in the world, at least from a noise standpoint. Sensors are another matter, but regardless
248 LTC8K6 : How do we account for the two completely different opinions on the weather and lightning?
249 WingedMigrator : I think they've got plenty of time. The only sub (Nautile) and ROV (Victor 6000) capable of retrieving the black boxes arrives in the area on June 12
250 Mir : They are. Should this turn out to be related to the air data probes, why the heat failed to protect them will be a subject of investigation. -Mir
251 Babybus : Isn't it about time all those bodies started to surface? Unless they are weighed down they should start to come to the top. Once they are found it sho
252 Gonzalo : " target=_blank>http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links....html Thank you for your help. Looking at those charts, the currents in the ITZ are mostly con
253 Mandala499 : They're all strapped to their seats... otherwise we'd see a lot of bodies. No bodies were found in the case of Adam Air 574. Mind you, the ROV video
254 Akhristov : Yes, one of the theories states that the plane was flying too fast to cope with turbulence (clogged pitot tubes), and broke up because of the stress
255 Mandala499 : What we now need data on is exactly that... Did it overspeed or did it stall and then overspeed? Or did it stall and spin? Being close to coffin corn
256 Rafaelyyz : I'm not an expert, but possibly because it could be easier to locate the box under water using listening devices, from a longer range and for a longe
257 N405MX : Just Read that article, and sound pretty plausible to me, It reffers a sudden change in OAT (about 20°C difference) and suddenly instead of flying w
258 Gigneil : You do realize that plane has weather instrumentation so sophisticated that some meteorologists would never have seen anything like it? Negative. The
259 Theredbaron : ^ I agree completely Logan. But seems to me nobody has paid attention to the link... If I had to bet money on theories this one would get my $$$$. Bes
260 Cosmofly : Read the link using google translate. This first hand experience can very well explain why there was no Mayday. Best guess so far.
261 Cosmofly : Here is the google translation. Someone who knows Spanish well can correct the translation mistakes. ------------ In the past few hours, and as usual
262 B2707SST : A few questions for the experts on the board: - When Airbus conducted static testing for the A330/A340, did they break the wing during the ultimate lo
263 Gigneil : Yes. I don't know what it made it to, but clearly it made it to the 150% threshold. It was in the link I posted the other day. It was also an ADIRU p
264 Post contains links NAV20 : Not sure that it is 'moving away' really, B2707SST. The 'AD' part means 'Air Data' - most of which passes through the ADIRUs and then on to the Fligh
265 Astuteman : They're certainly amongst the best. But in the context of this subject, any decent submarine should be able to easily pick up a pinging FDR/CVR. Mili
266 Post contains links Starlionblue : First, the benefit of a floating black box is by no means a given. The ocean is vast and it may well float away from the search area. Secondly, my gu
267 LTC8K6 : Best and shortest explanation yet!
268 Mir : If you look at post #67, you'll see that there were quite a few messages that went out before the one about the IR failure or ADR disagree. -Mir
269 Borism : USNS Mary Sears using Towed Sonar Arrays found them 20 days after the crash, but Indonesians recovered them only 8 months after that. Nothing new or
270 Zeke : Anyone who has owned a light globe, electric kettle, or electric fire would know, heating elements do fail. At M0.80 you would not hit the 1.4g buffe
271 TristarSteve : or pitot heat fault
272 Rquesty : From the press conference just held in paris: Take off weight 233T, fuel 68 T 1. ACARS messages sent every ten minutes allow the investigators to trac
273 Starlionblue : I'm pretty sure he meant simulated g load. And before the "I can't believe they haven't found it yet!" crowd resurfaces, one should note that if you
274 NAV20 : Fair enough, Zeke - except that I said 'on the blink' rather than 'failing.' Which can mean either 'not working,' or 'unable to work.' Which is exact
275 NAV20 : Sorry Borism, HAVE to respond to that comment. Getting tired of this nit-picking. 'Nothing' - except for maybe the headline, the first two paragraphs
276 ComeAndGo : Ad to that that AF is now replacing all pitot tubes on all A330. That pretty much tells the story.
277 StealthZ : 2nd time you have made that claim. From all I have seen the directive to change pitot tubes was in 2002, 3 years before F-GZCP was built. Please when
278 Post contains links OA260 : The Air France plane that crashed off Brazil sent out 24 automatic error messages in its final moments as its systems broke down one by one, investiga
279 David L : Thanks but a glance at the link shows that these are the same messages that have been discussed here for some time.
280 OA260 : Well with 290 posts and the odd bit of bickering and bitching its hard to see what has been posted and whats not. Its on Sky Breaking news. Kudos to
281 Osiris30 : Then you haven't really been following the thread. AF themselves spoke (well wrote, in an internal memo) about how they are still going through the p
282 757GB : Thanks, I was out of the net for a day and the article helped me catch up with what's known. Rgds, GB
283 Patches : This thread will keep going untill they atleast find the Airbus, untill then there is nothing wrong with this topic going on and on. If you dont like
284 Zeke : AFAIK a PHC detected fault goes via athe ADIRU to the FWC, not sure if the CMC would pick it up unless it was a user activated test. You are thinking
285 OA260 : Very true. I think the fact that the aircraft has not been located kind of strings things out and creates a different situation. I just hope they fin
286 NAV20 : I wasn't thinking in any terms on my own account, Zeke. I was merely quoting what appers to be a pretty literate and informed article. 'Without preju
287 Post contains links Moderators : Please continue the discussion here: AF A332 Missing (F-GZCP) - Part 12 Per forum policy, any posts that appear after this message will be deleted. If
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