JJ8080 From Brazil, joined Aug 2008, 932 posts, RR: 0 Posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 2126 times:
GOL annouced it's traffic figures for may-2009.
Despite being known as low-season period, the 3Q started with demand increase, although with lower loadfactors. Company stated that most of the low season fall-off was concentrated in May, reflecting the high concentration of holidays in April.
The reduction on loadfactors could be seen as the result of slower increase in demand when comparing to increse in seat-offer. Having said, they have delayed the delivery for 20 737s, from 2010-2012 to 2011-2014...
LipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11201 posts, RR: 61 Reply 1, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 2051 times:
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Gol is paying a high price for the current lack of inovation. Instead of adding services, Gol become a kind of "copy and paste" network reproducing competition flights.
The 60% load on the domestic market, could be better, and even being profitable because of a break even around 55%, they could obtain more profits if they reach 65 or even 70%
The international market is a big joke. Their flights to EZE are busy only during peak season and no one try to reduce the 6x daily flights between Sao Paulo and Buenos Aires while markets like SSA, REC and CNF claims for a single non-stop.
This is a wise move considering the present market scenario and increased competition in Brazil, eg Azul. It is now known that Azul has managed to get market share mainly from GOL and not TAM.
GOL decision to introduce BOB shows some reaction, perhaps the airline is going back to its roots as a low cost, low fare airline, something which was getting bluered by many pax.
The numbers in international operations are not good, but GOL does not have many routes anyway. The issue is that intra-South America flights are dominated by business travel and pax want proper service and 2-class cabin.
What are GOL international routes? EZE, COR, SCL, ASU, BOG, MVD, VVI and CCS (LIM is gone).
GOL has an interesting min-hub in POA, but I do not know how far it will work, as loads seem very low indeed.
Quoting Seemyseems (Reply 2): Could GOL start long haul or North American services, could they make it work?
GOL missed the boat and many of the secondary markets it could open to the US, including MAO-MIA are now served by legacy carriers.
JJ8080 From Brazil, joined Aug 2008, 932 posts, RR: 0 Reply 4, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 2014 times:
Quoting Seemyseems (Reply 2): Could GOL start long haul or North American services, could they make it work?
They could, however, only with a totally different strategy than the one adopted for RG's international expansion...
Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 1): they should research for 2 B772 to replace the 2 B763
Do they still have any of RG's 763s on lease?
Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 1): Gol should fly as international network
In my oppinion, they should look after some 752s for Latam services... Even for CCS and BOG services, this type would be more cost effective, wouldn't? The 772 step they should take when thinking about long-haul flights...
Hardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 52 Reply 5, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 2013 times:
Quoting JJ8080 (Reply 4): they should look after some 752s for Latam services
RG had a couple of B757 which were very nice, I flew once with RG B757 LIM-GRU nonstop and the business class was very good for a regional flight. LIM-GRU was one of RG's successful routes, RG even had a nice office in San Isidro...but GOL just "messed it up".
Abrelosojos From Venezuela, joined May 2005, 4918 posts, RR: 55 Reply 6, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 1979 times:
Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 1): Gol is paying a high price for the current lack of inovation. Instead of adding services, Gol become a kind of "copy and paste" network reproducing competition flights.
The 60% load on the domestic market, could be better, and even being profitable because of a break even around 55%, they could obtain more profits if they reach 65 or even 70%
= Agreed. I am not surprised with these numbers. GOL was an investor darling when it started and brought a breadth of fresh air to the market when they started. They have lost themselves along the way and innovation have been relegated to the back.
Moreover, I don't understand GOL. What is it? It is certainly neither a low-cost or a low-fare airline. Besides extremely limited inventory promo fares, most of their international fares are on the higher side and well out-of-reach of the average Latin wanting a weekend break to a neighboring country. GOL needs to stimulate the market and it is clearly failing to do so.
To their defense, they still have one guy in network planning who knows that he is doing. The others, have no idea.
Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 3): The issue is that intra-South America flights are dominated by business travel and pax want proper service and 2-class cabin.
= Well. I will add to what I wrote above. In intra-Latin America, you have business passengers who prefer a full 2-class cabin (here JJ and LA are market leaders). The only thing going for Gol is RG's old "Smiles" passengers who have remained loyal and which still has a good following in Brasil.
The other group of passengers are the leisure travelers and those who want weekend breaks. This is the market that Gol should simulate and OWN! However, their international fares are not competitive and my smart money is on PLUNA to continue to win over these passengers with their efficient hub at MVD and the fares they continue to offer on some key markets such as GRU-EZE and GRU-SCL. Interestingly, TAM Merosur did well with this strategy via ASU.
Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 5):
RG had a couple of B757 which were very nice, I flew once with RG B757 LIM-GRU nonstop and the business class was very good for a regional flight. LIM-GRU was one of RG's successful routes, RG even had a nice office in San Isidro...but GOL just "messed it up".
= Yup. I know exactly where the office was in San Isidro and after Miraflores (or, maybe Barranco) a great area in Lima to be based in.
Hardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 52 Reply 7, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 1969 times:
Quoting Abrelosojos (Reply 6): However, their international fares are not competitive and my smart money is on PLUNA to continue to win over these passengers with their efficient hub at MVD
The problem is that PU is in very bad shape regarding its finance. The investors which invested in PU are there for short-terms cash. Some weeks ago PU could not even refuel some of its jets because of financial problems.
Quoting Abrelosojos (Reply 6): = Yup. I know exactly where the office was in San Isidro and after Miraflores (or, maybe Barranco) a great area in Lima to be based in.
This is a great area in Lima to work or live, San Isidro is really nice.
Abrelosojos From Venezuela, joined May 2005, 4918 posts, RR: 55 Reply 8, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 1966 times:
Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 7):
The problem is that PU is in very bad shape regarding its finance. The investors which invested in PU are there for short-terms cash. Some weeks ago PU could not even refuel some of its jets because of financial problems.
= Oh I agree. A lot of airlines are facing the same problem though ... and IF the investor problem is resolved, PU can provide a niche service based in MVD. What they need to do is reduce the time between the banks ... make it as efficient as say PTY. With small fleets, a small aircraft type, and a small airport, this can definitely be done.
JJ8080 From Brazil, joined Aug 2008, 932 posts, RR: 0 Reply 9, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 1930 times:
Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 5): RG had a couple of B757 which were very nice, I flew once with RG B757 LIM-GRU nonstop and the business class was very good for a regional flight. LIM-GRU was one of RG's successful routes, RG even had a nice office in San Isidro...but GOL just "messed it up".
I flew one also and share your opinion... 752s would perfectly fit some interesting markets for G3, such as CCS, BOG, SCL... The would also me useful on domestic high-demand mid-range routes such as GIG-REC, GRU-MAO, GIG-FOR, etc...
Regarding PU, I don't have any numbers, but do someone know how their are doing with their CRJs?? I really think they chose the right type for international services...
I don't know why is that PU just can't succeed ever... They just need a couple of CRJs for domestics services, 2 or 3 737s/A320s for international services within Latam, and another couple of 767s (maybe 772s) for MAD services. They could also think about MIA....
G3's case is way more complicated. I'm pretty convinced they should get 4-6 752s and configure them with two-class service. The frames would then be based at GIG and GRU, running: GIG-EZE-SCL, GIG-LIM, GIG-CCS, GIG-GRU-BOG, GRU-CCS, GRU-SCL... Other services out of GIG and GRU would run with 738s. Their POA mini-hub could be handled with a mix of 73G and 738, flying non stop to MVD, EZE, SCL, COR... They should also serve non-stop other major brazilian cities, such as BSB-EZE, REC-SSA-EZE, CNF-CWB-EZE...
LipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11201 posts, RR: 61 Reply 10, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 1922 times:
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Quoting Seemyseems (Reply 2): Could GOL start long haul or North American services, could they make it work?
They lose the right timing for that. But there's a few chances with CNF-EWR, GIG-JFK, but they do not have neither product, neither brand, neither cash to spend on the first months.
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
Larger VFR (visiting friends aand relatives) community in the United States
Quoting JJ8080 (Reply 11): I think, if they decided to restart long haul services, they would go for the cash cows... Do they still have RG's slots?
Yes...but such cash cows are under JJ and others hands right now. You can try to fight against an established player or you may try to develop new markets
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
Tonytifao From Brazil, joined Mar 2005, 959 posts, RR: 0 Reply 13, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 1863 times:
Would any Brazil - Las Vegas flight work? Maybe 3x weekly? Probably not, butt verytime I travel now people are going back to Brazil from Las Vegas. It has become a very popular destination for Brazilians.
JJ8080 From Brazil, joined Aug 2008, 932 posts, RR: 0 Reply 14, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 1852 times:
Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 12): Yes...but such cash cows are under JJ and others hands right now. You can try to fight against an established player or you may try to develop new markets
Do you know if they lost all RG's slots?
I agree that developing new markets can be interesting, but it seems that airlines in Brazil are quite afraid of it... Azul did developed a new hub (VCP), although didn't go as planned linking point to point, without any strong hub, what would have been something quite innovative...
As we are talking about international market, I wonder how would VCP go as a hub, let's say VCP-EZE, VCP-SCL, VCP-MEX, VCP-JFK, VCP-CDG, VCP-MAD, etc... I'm not very updated about VCP's condition to handle traffic, but this would be an alternative to GRU, since it has proved that can't handle any more international flights without T3...
As a record, flew NVT-CGH today with G3, and the plane was almost booked, 3 or 4 seat available....
Hardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 52 Reply 15, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 1850 times:
Quoting JJ8080 (Reply 14): As a record, flew NVT-CGH today with G3, and the plane was almost booked, 3 or 4 seat available....
Nice to hear that NVT flight continue fully booked. I flew G3 CGH-NVT on 16 May and its was 100% full and NVT-GRU on 20 May also with about 90% load. Note that G3 last month started NVT-GRU-GIG-BEL-MCP. This new G3 flight allows for excellent connections from/to GRU international network.
Over the last two months NVT flight operations increased from 6 daily flights (3 TAM+ 3 GOL) to 12 daily flights (3 TAM+4 GOL+5 AZUL). AZUL is now operating NVT-CPQ and NVT-POA also with very high loads.
NVT now has great connectivity in my opinion the missing routes are one or two additional daily NVT-GRU, one or two NVT-SDU or GIG nonstop, one NVT-BSB nonstop, one NVT-CWB and one NVT-CXJ, and there is also market for at least a seasonal NVT-EZE. Then it will be perfect...but I know that I am dreaming for now...
Note that SL already operated with success NVT-SDU, RG operated NVT-CWB and TAM NVT-CXJ while GOL operate seasonal NVT-EZE.
JJ8080 From Brazil, joined Aug 2008, 932 posts, RR: 0 Reply 16, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 1839 times:
Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 15): Nice to hear that NVT flight continue fully booked. I flew G3 CGH-NVT on 16 May and its was 100% full and NVT-GRU on 20 May also with about 90% load. Note that G3 last month started NVT-GRU-GIG-BEL-MCP. This new G3 flight allows for excellent connections from/to GRU international network.
Indeed. I'm at least twice a month on CGH-NVT-CGH and it's hard to see a flight with load under 80%. Also, I'd bet that this route has something around 70-80% of business very frequent flyer traffic.
Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 15): Over the last two months NVT flight operations increased from 6 daily flights (3 TAM+ 3 GOL) to 12 daily flights (3 TAM+4 GOL+5 AZUL). AZUL is now operating NVT-CPQ and NVT-POA also with very high loads.
I really don't know why G3 and JJ still don't give NVT the attetion it deserves and demand... I can't undersant why neither JJ and G3 is in NVT-POA market....
Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 15): NVT now has great connectivity in my opinion the missing routes are one or two additional daily NVT-GRU, one or two NVT-SDU or GIG nonstop, one NVT-BSB nonstop, one NVT-CWB and one NVT-CXJ, and there is also market for at least a seasonal NVT-EZE. Then it will be perfect...but I know that I am dreaming for now...
If I'm not mistaken, today NVT is linked ONLY with CGH (3 JJ, 3 G3), VCP (3 AD), GRU (one daily G3), and POA (2 daily AD)... Did I miss something?
Perfect NVT cenario for me would be (including all airlines):
IMHO, CWB to close to work, you can get there in 2h30 by car.... This could work maybe with smaller 40-50 seat airplanes, like SL did with their ERJs...
Hardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 52 Reply 17, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 1836 times:
Quoting JJ8080 (Reply 16): I'm at least twice a month on CGH-NVT-CGH and it's hard to see a flight with load under 80%. Also, I'd bet that this route has something around 70-80% of business very frequent flyer traffic.
Agree and thanks for confirming the high loads and yields of NVT.
This is mainly because NVT has an important catching are comprising Itajai (export port and third biggest Brazilian company, Brasil Foods), Blumenau, Gaspar, Brusque (Bunge), Balneariu Camboriu, Rio do Sul, and many other cities with active business and tourism (eg Beto Carreiro World in Penha, Oktoberfest in Blumenau).
Also note that NVT is squeezed between FLN and JOI which also has G3 and TAM flight.
JOI itself has an important catching area involving Joinville (Busscar, Datasul, Tigre, Embraco, Tupy, Whirlpool, etc), Jaragua do Sul (Weg), Sao Francisco do Sul (export port and Vega-Arcelor). Needless to say Joinville is the biggest city of Santa Catarina state.
Quoting JJ8080 (Reply 16): I could count only 3 flights for AD, as follows:
Quoting JJ8080 (Reply 16): witch ones are the other two you refer??
JJ8080 From Brazil, joined Aug 2008, 932 posts, RR: 0 Reply 18, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 1763 times:
Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 17): You forgot AD twice daily NVT-POA.
Ok.. Thought you only saying NVT-SAO flights...
Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 17): Agree 100% with you. I also feel CXJ could be added since it is very difficult to reach the Serra Gaucha region from the Itajai Valley.
Agreed. Althoug, I have mixed feelings if CXJ could get better loads if linked to FLN... Either way, G3 has two CGH-CXJ 6x weekly non-stop, I don't know about loads but they could make one of them stop at FLN or NVT...
Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 17): This is mainly because NVT has an important catching are comprising Itajai (export port and third biggest Brazilian company, Brasil Foods), Blumenau, Gaspar, Brusque (Bunge), Balneariu Camboriu, Rio do Sul, and many other cities with active business and tourism (eg Beto Carreiro World in Penha, Oktoberfest in Blumenau).
Also note that NVT is squeezed between FLN and JOI which also has G3 and TAM flight.
JOI itself has an important catching area involving Joinville (Busscar, Datasul, Tigre, Embraco, Tupy, Whirlpool, etc), Jaragua do Sul (Weg), Sao Francisco do Sul (export port and Vega-Arcelor). Needless to say Joinville is the biggest city of Santa Catarina state.
Totally correct! NVT and JOI serves very economic active cities, and again, deserves the attention they demand..
Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 17): At that time TAM operated a few F50 flights in Blumenau's Quero-Quero airport, all flights are now concentrated in NVT.
Miss that time! Was quite and experience to land at Quer-Quero (BNU, IIRC) on JJ's F50s/Caravans and SL's EMB120s... That airport is competely surround by montains and has no instruments at all...
Hardiwv From Brazil, joined Oct 2004, 8780 posts, RR: 52 Reply 19, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 1754 times:
Quoting JJ8080 (Reply 18): Agreed. Althoug, I have mixed feelings if CXJ could get better loads if linked to FLN... Either way, G3 has two CGH-CXJ 6x weekly non-stop, I don't know about loads but they could make one of them stop at FLN or NVT...
You are right about CXJ ()both CXJ and MGF are destinations dropped by TAM). NHT and TAM tried in the past NVT-CXJ without success. Also in XAP gets twice daily G3 flies linked to FLN and GRU and OceanAir operates da daily F-100 XAP-CGH. While LAJ which before had flights operated by SL and OceanAir now is served by NHT.
Quoting JJ8080 (Reply 18): Miss that time! Was quite and experience to land at Quer-Quero (BNU, IIRC) on JJ's F50s/Caravans and SL's EMB120s... That airport is competely surround by montains and has no instruments at all...
It is better to route all traffic to NVT which means more density and hence more flights and frequencies. They only need to improve the highway from NVT to Blumenau which is in bad shape.
JJ8080 From Brazil, joined Aug 2008, 932 posts, RR: 0 Reply 20, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 1745 times:
Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 19): It is better to route all traffic to NVT which means more density and hence more flights and frequencies. They only need to improve the highway from NVT to Blumenau which is in bad shape.
VERY bad shape and full of speed radars! At least every two months I get a ticket!
Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 19): You are right about CXJ ()both CXJ and MGF are destinations dropped by TAM). NHT and TAM tried in the past NVT-CXJ without success. Also in XAP gets twice daily G3 flies linked to FLN and GRU and OceanAir operates da daily F-100 XAP-CGH. While LAJ which before had flights operated by SL and OceanAir now is served by NHT.
It's funny how SL managed to do so well on this markets years ago and now G3 and JJ just can't hit them right... Maybe due to oversized planes? I wonder why JJ didn't replaced their F100s with E95s... There are certain brazilian routes that just can't fill a A319 and where a 100-seater would play a perfect hole..
LipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11201 posts, RR: 61 Reply 21, posted (3 years 11 months 3 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 1681 times:
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Quoting Hardiwv (Reply 19): You are right about CXJ ()both CXJ and MGF are destinations dropped by TAM). NHT and TAM tried in the past NVT-CXJ without success
Al the south of Brazil need to be connected to the rest of the South of Brazil.
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
LipeGIG From Brazil, joined May 2005, 11201 posts, RR: 61 Reply 23, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 1563 times:
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Quoting JJ8080 (Reply 22): I'd say a really organized regional airline, operating a mix of ER4s and E70/E90s would make good business taking back SL's market in South Brazil...
Not only the South. There's plenty of opportunities in Brazil:
1 - Northeast
-------------------
REC has space and it's closer to Europe than 99% of Brazilian markets (except NAT). An airline with hub there would be able to introduce several 752 flights to Europe with a reasonable fixed cost, and with good connections in Brazil, may become a major player.
Also, there's lack of flights on premium hours out of Northeast and between Northeast places.
2- Confins
---------------
It's strange, Gol has a large maintenance operation but do not take advantage of the market. There's a lack of non-stop service to the US and Europe, as well as EZE.
3- Small places: RAO, GYN...
---------------------------------------------
In general they have a good amount of traffic but all of the traffic right now goes to one or two places. Such city's could have a small regional jet airline with a fleet of 6 to 12 planes that connect the "hub" not only to Sao Paulo, but also to Rio de Janeiro, Brasilia, Northeast, South and negotiate 1 or 2 international markets like EZE and Europe/US
4- GIG
---------
The big " hub " missing point in Brazil. Still under-served to Europe and US, with plenty opportunities to Italy, Chile, Mexico, Germany, UK, USA, Asia. There's no main hub in Rio de Janeiro right now, and it's all about 16% of the brazilian market, plus the condition to fight for around 40% of the market (connections)
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
JJ8080 From Brazil, joined Aug 2008, 932 posts, RR: 0 Reply 24, posted (3 years 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 1530 times:
Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 23): REC has space and it's closer to Europe than 99% of Brazilian markets (except NAT). An airline with hub there would be able to introduce several 752 flights to Europe with a reasonable fixed cost, and with good connections in Brazil, may become a major player.
Also, there's lack of flights on premium hours out of Northeast and between Northeast places.
Agree.
Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 23): It's strange, Gol has a large maintenance operation but do not take advantage of the market. There's a lack of non-stop service to the US and Europe, as well as EZE.
TRIP has plenty of regional options out of BH, but departing PLU... As you described, CNF could work as an International hub, the only problem would be connections (with TRIP flights), pax would need to change airport.
Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 23): 3- Small places: RAO, GYN...
---------------------------------------------
In general they have a good amount of traffic but all of the traffic right now goes to one or two places. Such city's could have a small regional jet airline with a fleet of 6 to 12 planes that connect the "hub" not only to Sao Paulo, but also to Rio de Janeiro, Brasilia, Northeast, South and negotiate 1 or 2 international markets like EZE and Europe/US
Passaredo took over RAO and is now doing a great job. Last month they received the first ERJ-145 (more 4 still to be received)... This new birds are flying, out of RAO, to GRU, GYN, CWB, CGB and JPR... I think this new strategy will make them consolidate as an strong regional operator..
25 LipeGIG: IAH, SCL (one stop), LIM, COR (1 stop) and OPO. Will do better, they are acquiring some ERJ145
26 JJ8080: Did this one started already? What about US Airways? Heard that GIG would be, yet this year, their first South America destination, out of Charlotte,
27 Hardiwv: Passaredo already flies 2 ERJ145s (they entered service this month). Some staff here at the office flew GRU-RAO with Passaredo ERJ and really liked i
28 LipeGIG: I doubt UA will become year-round because they do not have the planes to do it. No more ASU as the PZ flight is now EZE-GIG-EZE. More is coming!
29 Hardiwv: Ok, thanks. I think there is a good chance of UA IAD-GIG year-round. I am not sure, but apparently UA grounded some planes. I think this is decision
30 JJ8080: I saw some occupation numbers of UA and was quite impressed... IIRC, for the first trimester they got almost 80% load factor for the entire network..
31 LipeGIG: That's the best perfoming months for Brazil together with July. But numbers for November for example shows loads around 60-65% UA is far from being a
32 JJ8080: But this 80% occupations I saw was refering to UA complete network (domestic, Europe, Asia, etc), and also for United Express.... That's why I was the
33 LipeGIG: GIG is under served from United States and they will launch the flight on the peak season. Plus, is the sole deep South American US flight as well as
34 JJ8080: OK, but loads will be mostly connection passengers... agree? Very few VFR or local business...
35 LipeGIG: You will be surprised but there's some local business. The same way some people connect nowadays to IAH thru MIA from GIG it's possible that Bank of
36 JJ8080: Something that just came up to me now is that they will be flying here with B762, which offers Y179C18, so, they won't need a huge amout on pax to ma
38 Hardiwv: Thanks for the corrections concerning Passaredo network. Just a note that CGB and GYN will become separated and operated dedicated. Perfect. Not only
39 JJ8080: Nice news... Probably both will be ERJ-145 destinations I presume.. Their next steps should be changing RAO-GRU-POA to RAO-POA and RAO-GRU-SSA to RAO
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