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Thai To Cancel Their A380s?  
User currently offlineHeavierthanair From Switzerland, joined Oct 2000, 789 posts, RR: 0
Posted (5 years 1 month 3 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 16413 times:

G'day

Per this, albeit not the most reliable source of information

http://www.luchtvaartnieuws.nl/news/default.asp?cat=&id=30930

TG is considering the cancellation of the six A380's they have on order. Reason stated is a load factor of 89% required to break even as per a statement in the Bangkok Post. I could not find any reference to this on the on line version Bangkok Post though.


Cheers

Peter


"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe." (Albert Einstein, 1879
138 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 1, posted (5 years 1 month 3 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 16399 times:

I don't expect it to be an outright cancellation, but rather a conversion to ten or twelve A350s, which are much better suited to TG's route network.

User currently offlineNicoEDDF From Germany, joined Jan 2008, 1099 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (5 years 1 month 3 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 16312 times:



Quoting Heavierthanair (Thread starter):
Reason stated is a load factor of 89% required to break even as per a statement in the Bangkok Post.

If that is true one really has to wonder who ran the numbers for TG. A near 90% load factor for only breaking even is no wise business case.


User currently offlineHeavierthanair From Switzerland, joined Oct 2000, 789 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (5 years 1 month 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 16028 times:

G'day

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/...-reconsiders-costly-jumbo-jet-deal

This is the article referred to.

Quote:

Wallop Bhukkanasut, chairman of THAI's executive board, revealed the national carrier's revised stance on procuring the world's largest civil aircraft, which it agreed to purchase back in 2007 when the carrier was struggling to weather its worst financial crisis in 49 years.

"It is not economically viable to have and deploy this aircraft in our network," Mr Wallop said at the sidelines of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) annual general meeting being held in Kuala Lumpur.

Airlines operating A380s have found it difficult to achieve the yields they expected due to the global economic crisis, high operating costs and a lack of flexibility in moving the aircraft through airports, he said.

"It is a special mission airplane and can currently operate through eight airports around the world, meaning you can't put the aircraft on routes as you may wish," he said.

With THAI's planned configuration of the A380, the airline must fill 88.8% of 501 seats just to break even, he said.

"We need to make a major turnaround decision," he said.

Unquote:

Strange statements  Embarrassment


Cheers

Peter



"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe." (Albert Einstein, 1879
User currently offlineDirectorguy From Egypt, joined Jul 2008, 1651 posts, RR: 11
Reply 4, posted (5 years 1 month 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 15966 times:

It depends on the yields, not the loads.
In any case-they realised this now? Too late, don't you think?


User currently offlineN14AZ From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2694 posts, RR: 25
Reply 5, posted (5 years 1 month 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 15851 times:



Quoting Heavierthanair (Reply 3):
Airlines operating A380s have found it difficult to achieve the yields they expected [...] he said.

Naive question of mine: how can he refer to operational experience made by his competitors? I find this quit strange and a strong indication that - like always - that there is a complely different reason which he doesn't want to mention (see below).

Quoting Heavierthanair (Reply 3):
Airlines operating A380s have found it difficult to achieve the yields they expected due to the global economic crisis, [...] he said.

So he wanted to operate his A380s only during this current crisis? Aaah, understood. Then he rather should cancel them quickly.  Wink

Does he really think we are so stupid? Here is my translation: "We made a horrible mistake when ordering the A380, we simply cannot afford it and that's why we are looking for a solution to convert our orders. But this is only between you and me and please do not post this on a.net."


User currently offlineNYC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 5733 posts, RR: 48
Reply 6, posted (5 years 1 month 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 15736 times:

If this and the ILFC cancellations rumors are true then the pressue is on Airbus to make the A350 a huge winner. It's becoming apparent that with the deferrals (which cost money to Airbus) along with the costs of the delays and penalty payments and the low number of orders that the A380 could be a huge money loser for Airbus.


That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30613 posts, RR: 84
Reply 7, posted (5 years 1 month 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 15528 times:
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What the heck kind of CASM does TG have to need to fill 446 seats on an A380 just to break even?

At that rate, they might as well just run them in a charter configuration with 850 Economy seats.


User currently offlineScottB From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6712 posts, RR: 32
Reply 8, posted (5 years 1 month 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 15474 times:



Quoting NicoEDDF (Reply 2):
If that is true one really has to wonder who ran the numbers for TG. A near 90% load factor for only breaking even is no wise business case.

If memory serves, there was a bit of quid pro quo involved in the Thai A380 order with respect to agricultural imports to Europe from Thailand (shrimp?).

Quoting Stitch (Reply 7):
What the heck kind of CASM does TG have to need to fill 446 seats on an A380 just to break even?

My guess is that RASM/yield is a bigger problem than CASM here.


User currently offlineDL767captain From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 2539 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (5 years 1 month 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 15462 times:

I would see thai either turning these orders into an A350 order or a 77W or 748. I feel like the A380 is just too big for thai.

User currently offlineSunriseValley From Canada, joined Jul 2004, 4874 posts, RR: 5
Reply 10, posted (5 years 1 month 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 15451 times:



Quoting Heavierthanair (Reply 3):
high operating costs

This suggests operating costs higher than anticipated. I can't believe there is enough hours on the type to support this statement.


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 11, posted (5 years 1 month 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 15417 times:



Quoting ScottB (Reply 8):
If memory serves, there was a bit of quid pro quo involved in the Thai A380 order with respect to agricultural imports to Europe from Thailand (shrimp?).

Yes, it was shrimps.

Quoting ScottB (Reply 8):
My guess is that RASM/yield is a bigger problem than CASM here.

CASM and RASM are inextricably linked such that neither can be a problem except in the context of the other.

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 9):
I would see thai either turning these orders into an A350 order or a 77W or 748. I feel like the A380 is just too big for thai.

The 747-8I is also too large for TG. I would bet on a conversion to A350s.


User currently offlineLY777 From France, joined Nov 2005, 2671 posts, RR: 2
Reply 12, posted (5 years 1 month 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 15292 times:



Quoting Zvezda (Reply 11):
The 747-8I is also too large for TG.

they use 744s though. The 748 is not far bigger than the 744



אמא, אני מתגעגע לך
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 13, posted (5 years 1 month 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 15253 times:



Quoting LY777 (Reply 12):
they use 744s though. The 748 is not far bigger than the 744

TG have difficulty filling their 747-400s at sustainable fares. They don't need anything larger than an A350-1000 or 777-300ER.

BTW, the latest 777-300ERs can fly LAX-BKK nonstop with a commercially viable payload, though they would probably have to go out with some empty seats on bad wind days.


User currently offlineFLALEFTY From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 444 posts, RR: 3
Reply 14, posted (5 years 1 month 3 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 14965 times:

Any airline (or leasing company) that cancels the A380s they got as launch customers, with ideal terms, has to be hurting financially to the point that long-term planning is out the window. Defer, perhaps, but getting these big birds will prove to be major money makers in a few years.

User currently offlineTeva From France, joined Jan 2001, 1871 posts, RR: 16
Reply 15, posted (5 years 1 month 3 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 14835 times:



Quoting Heavierthanair (Reply 3):
"It is a special mission airplane and can currently operate through eight airports around the world, meaning you can't put the aircraft on routes as you may wish," he said.

Can he provide his list of 8 airports only, this will give us the opportunity to add all the missing ones, just based on airports currently served by the A380 (or planned by year end) on a regular base

one of the most ridiculous statements I have seen. Makes me doubt the credibility of this article

Teva



Ecoute les orgues, Elles jouent pour toi...C'est le requiem pour un con
User currently offlineJtdieffen From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 179 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (5 years 1 month 3 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 14651 times:



Quoting Teva (Reply 15):
Can he provide his list of 8 airports only, this will give us the opportunity to add all the missing ones, just based on airports currently served by the A380 (or planned by year end) on a regular base

I agree that this is a false and foolish statement, but are we perhaps taking it too literally? Does he maybe mean that only eight airports world-wide of Thai's current destinations are A380 capable? I don't konw if this makes the statement any truer, but sometimes things do get lost in translation!



Regards! JDief
User currently offlineOsiris30 From Barbados, joined Sep 2006, 3192 posts, RR: 25
Reply 17, posted (5 years 1 month 3 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 14606 times:



Quoting Jtdieffen (Reply 16):
I agree that this is a false and foolish statement, but are we perhaps taking it too literally? Does he maybe mean that only eight airports world-wide of Thai's current destinations are A380 capable? I don't konw if this makes the statement any truer, but sometimes things do get lost in translation!

Or further; 8 airports that Thai serves that need the capacity from Thai's perspective.

Personally I see these being converted to 350s rather than outright cancelations.



I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21474 posts, RR: 60
Reply 18, posted (5 years 1 month 3 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 14586 times:



Quoting Zvezda (Reply 13):
TG have difficulty filling their 747-400s at sustainable fares. They don't need anything larger than an A350-1000 or 777-300ER.

That's reality.

The act of adding seats to a route that doesn't need those seats will depress RASM more than most people realize.

Those 100 extra seats will mean that before, when they MIGHT fill the 744 on a peak day and those last seats were high yielding, in those same conditions, there are still 100 more seats left. That means more seats in all fare buckets over the course of selling a flight, and ultimately, fewer people ever paying the most expensive prices.

If you are an airline that was chafing at the capacity limit of the 744 and had limited access to routes, the A380 works great. You could add more seats and even improve your premium product.

But if you would have been better off with the 350 seater than the 744 to begin with, bumping up to 500 seats is just brainless. Not only does it cut into yields, but it limits flexibility.

This goes back to the NH/JL experiment with dumping 744s for 77Ws and finding that the yield improved greatly. Revenue was nearly identical to a 744, but costs were 10% lower or more, increasing profit per flight. They may be leaving a few pax behind on some days, but the alternative is to fly a 744 where you are leaving seats empty on other days, or an A380 where you are either leaving seats open on most days, or decreasing RASM and filling the seats, meaning the CASM savings is offset by the RASM decline.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineMAN2SIN2BKK From Thailand, joined Feb 2009, 225 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (5 years 1 month 3 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 14456 times:



Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 14):
Can he provide his list of 8 airports only, this will give us the opportunity to add all the missing ones, just based on airports currently served by the A380 (or planned by year end) on a regular base

I believe that something is missing in the translation from Thai to English, replace the "can" by "is" and we have the correct context.

Thai have ordered the A380s for 3 specific routes; BKK-LHR, FRA and CDG and from personally flying the LHR and FRA routes on a regular basis for the past 8 years they can expect a reasonable yield. Up to a year ago these flights were fully booked well in advance and very few deals, who knows these times may return very soon

Personally, I believe there is a sizeable order for either B777s or A350s in the pipeline and this newspaper interview with the Bangkok Post may be the start of pushing for a better deal for the A350s


User currently offlineCloudyapple From Hong Kong, joined Jul 2005, 2454 posts, RR: 10
Reply 20, posted (5 years 1 month 3 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 14350 times:

It's a little bit unfair to use today's numbers to judge the procurement decision made a few years back. The forecast in terms of passenger numbers and yield would have been completely different back then. The market was on the up, there was no financial crisis, no red/yellow political issues and no swine flu. So they bought the aircraft based on the information available to them at the time.

It may not make sense now but it was probably the right decision to make when they made it.

The A388 is a niche aircraft. You do need to deploy it on ultra high capacity longhaul routes to make the most out of it. It burns about 15t per hour compared to a little more than 8t for the B77W. It has about twice the cabin space but it hasn't got enough cargo space which is the big issue.

I was a believer of this aircraft when the times were good. But in the current climate it will be difficult to operate this aircraft economically. It's time will come but perhaps not in the next few years.



A310/A319/20/21/A332/3/A343/6/A388/B732/5/7/8/B742/S/4/B752/B763/B772/3/W/E145/J41/MD11/83/90
User currently offlinePellegrine From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 2362 posts, RR: 8
Reply 21, posted (5 years 1 month 3 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 14259 times:



Quoting Stitch (Reply 7):
What the heck kind of CASM does TG have to need to fill 446 seats on an A380 just to break even?

At that rate, they might as well just run them in a charter configuration with 850 Economy seats.

Look at Thai's yields, look at the fares! They aren't bringing in the highest (by far) fares in many of their markets. Their strategy has been to drive traffic by offering lower fares than European/Australian/SQ/CX rivals.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 18):
This goes back to the NH/JL experiment with dumping 744s for 77Ws and finding that the yield improved greatly. Revenue was nearly identical to a 744, but costs were 10% lower or more, increasing profit per flight.

Yes but NH/JL never had the yield problems TG has. Cost problems sure.

Quoting MAN2SIN2BKK (Reply 19):
Thai have ordered the A380s for 3 specific routes; BKK-LHR, FRA and CDG and from personally flying the LHR and FRA routes on a regular basis for the past 8 years they can expect a reasonable yield.

Reasonable, yes. Spectacularly stupendous, no.



oh boy!!!
User currently offlineRj777 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 1787 posts, RR: 2
Reply 22, posted (5 years 1 month 3 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 13829 times:

Let's just hope that the A380 doesn't end up like the Concorde and have only a few airlines flying it.

User currently offlineScipio From Belgium, joined Oct 2007, 846 posts, RR: 9
Reply 23, posted (5 years 1 month 3 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 13831 times:



Quoting Zvezda (Reply 11):
CASM and RASM are inextricably linked such that neither can be a problem except in the context of the other.

 checkmark 

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 18):
The act of adding seats to a route that doesn't need those seats will depress RASM more than most people realize.

What people tend to forget is that airlines do not operate in a vacuum. They operate in a context of competition. RASM does not depend on the capacity that an airline offers, but of the capacity that is available on the market as a whole. Over time, that will inevitably tend to push RASM in the direction of the CASM of the LOWEST-COST operator.

That is why, if the A380 has compelling economics (which remains to be confirmed), over time the intercontinental market will be split into two categories: A380 operators and niche operators.

We may have to wait for the A380-900XWB to see this happen, though.

Also, do not forget that Thai is not a profit maximizing airline. It is an airline that, among other things, seeks to promote tourism into Thailand. On that metric, Thai has been quite successful. Airfares to and from Bangkok are pretty much the cheapest of all Asian gateways.


User currently offlineMAN2SIN2BKK From Thailand, joined Feb 2009, 225 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (5 years 1 month 3 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 13818 times:



Quoting Pellegrine (Reply 21):
Look at Thai's yields, look at the fares! They aren't bringing in the highest (by far) fares in many of their markets. Their strategy has been to drive traffic by offering lower fares than European/Australian/SQ/CX rivals.

If you look at the pricing on the core long haul routes of BKK-LHR/FRA/MUC/CDG then Thai are very expensive in the economy class in comparison to their competition. In the premium cabins such as Royal Silk they offer good value and are booked up well in advance. BKK-LHR-BKK is quoted at 132K baht (roughly 3700 USD).

I tried to make a booking for next week and the overnight BKK-LHR flights only have seats available in First Class; Royal Silk and Economy are fully booked


25 Cloudyapple : That is good value. HKG-LHR, which has just about the most competition of any longhaul routes worldwide, and is about the same length as BKK-LHR, the
26 Cloudyapple : An A380-900 is expected. An A380-900XWB will be interesting.
27 Scipio : You can get great business class fares by routing your itinerary via Bangkok. I have been able to fly around the world on a business trip, staying wi
28 Scipio : The "XWB" refers to the engine and other A350-generation technologies only. Not to the fuselage width.
29 Scipio : A post-scriptum to this. It is blatantly obvious that what Emirates is trying to achieve is to become the CASM champion among the intercontinental ca
30 Pellegrine : Yes, this is my point. Their long haul RASM is lower than many of their neighbors/competitors. Interesting I for one did not know this, I am sure the
31 Bigsmile : XWB = Xtra Wide Body XWB is NOT used in anything connected to the technolgies. XWB is used purely for the marketing for the A350. Trust me on this.
32 Aviationbuff : XWB refers to eXtra Wide Body. For the first time I am hearing that it refers to the engine and other A350-generation technologies.
33 A350 : The most urgent issue is to get Thailand out of the political mess and get democracy up and running. This is the condition for a recovery of tourism a
34 Zvezda : That's correct except that the additional seats cannot be allocated across the existing fare buckets. They have to either all go into the lowest fare
35 A350 : Both types have seen 14 frames in airline service so far according to airliners of 05/29, therefore the only way for the A380 not to fly in greater n
36 Astuteman : The A350XWB is called so because it has "An Xtra Wide Body" (when compared to the original A350 design, presumably). The only engine on offer, from R
37 TISTPAA727 : Quite an argument going on here. Seems like whenever an A380 thread starts, things go south really quick. I don't think anyone here is denying the cap
38 Motorhussy : Can't yield anything if your plane's not loaded (at least partially). Back to the topic, TG will need these at some point. IMHO MH
39 Revelation : Lots of people in the airline business (and many others) seem to take data from a few good years and then draw a straight line extending into the fut
40 CHRISBA777ER : Absolutely agree - you are spot on. We are, generally, in a downward cycle now, but there are too many people and too big a demand for air travel on
41 CHRISBA777ER : Adding seats probably wouldnt result in lower fares from TG - they tend to price themselves in most classes 10-20% (guess) more from Europe - BKK tha
42 Jfk777 : Thai needs airplanes no bigger then an A350-900, or a 777-300ER. They should get 777-200ER for their average European, Australian and South African ro
43 EA772LR : All these damn cancellation rumors are getting ridiculous...I guess I am going to have to stop buying my 1/200 scale models of the A380, since apparen
44 N14AZ : And what about the VC10? Could you say that the A380 could end up like the VC10 (64 units delivered acc. wikipedia). Could you please repeat your disc
45 2175301 : As a person who has always questioned the market potential of the A380 (especially the very high numbers) I don't think that Thai or a few companies c
46 Theredbaron : Just because the current financial crisis has put the Airline industry in a very bad shape, doesnt mean it will not recover in some way or form later
47 757GB : You mean you are CANCELING the purchase of YOUR A380 scale model TOO???? Sorry... I couldn't resist
48 CHRISBA777ER : A great post - at last some sanity and reason. It may surprise you to know that I broadly agree with many of the points you make - i think they are w
49 Scipio : Thanks for the reminder All I tried to do was to capture in three letters the idea of incorporating technology developed for the A350 into the A380-9
50 Cornish : Unless they keep the aircraft for prestige/political reasons, I can well see TG getting rid of their A380 order. They are financially in poor shape ri
51 CHRISBA777ER : So its official - may i ask where you sourced this piece of arbitrary information? With respect my Lithuanian friend - you've backtracked furiously h
52 Stitch : IF TG's problem is yields, would not a smaller plane be more beneficial since it would constrict supply, raising yields due to the demand curve moving
53 EA772LR : Hahaha Brilliant comeback!
54 EA772LR : Very well stated sir. This is why, as much I love the 748I, for an operator that honestly needs a VLA and can profitably operate a fleet of them, the
55 Osiris30 : Agreed. I've been on record for a long time as seeing approx 150-160 388s (go check the place your bets thread). I do have doubts we will get to 250
56 DLPMMM : Please think about what you have written. So you are saying that BA, AF, TG, LH, and EK will all be operating the A380 between Europe and Bangkok in t
57 Stitch : Why not? I believe some of them do so now with 747-400s. Are any of those airlines currently flying more then one frequency per day?
58 DLPMMM : Thank you for making my point!!
59 Stitch : Then I must not understand your point. Could you enlighten me?
60 EA772LR : Wait a sec though...I'm confused, cause first you said: So you're saying these passengers may have to take a hit on frequency if that many airlines s
61 Astuteman : The price of coffee will be what it is..... I got to fly on it - worth $20Bn of anyone's money...... Rgds
62 BlueShamu330s : Quite so. I suspect Wallop Bhukkanasut is sufferring from an acute case of Akbar Al Bakeritis, defn: When the chips are down and you need to ditch a
63 Atomsareenough : Perhaps Mr. Bhukkanasut was including the capital and other acquisition costs of the A380 in order to get his 89% figure. That might explain why it's
64 DLPMMM : Economics! Supply and Demand! SOME of them! The A380 is much larger than the largest plane that any of them currently uses. This means many more seats
65 Scipio : We'll have to see, but logically this increase in capacity should lead to lower ticket prices and therefore increased travel between Europe and Thail
66 Stitch : But this assumes that traffic on those routes is static, DLPMMM. If it is increasing (averaged across 10-20 years), then being able to provide additio
67 Lawair : With a randomly picked date of August 11 we have the following: BKK - LHR BA 1x 744 QF 1x 744 TG 2x 744 BR 1x 77W BKK - FRA TG 2x 744 LH 1x 744 BKK -
68 Zvezda : Good question. That's fulfillment of previously existing demand that had gone unfulfilled.
69 DLPMMM : It assumes demand increasing at the historical rate, which is a few percent per year. Any other assumption would be unsupportable. Ahhh, but you are
70 Atomsareenough : Right, but in your AS example, you're comparing a 73G they have yet to pay for vs. a 738 they would also have to pay for. Assuming acquisition costs
71 Zvezda : If TG (or any other airline) were to add seats to a flight without lowering fares, those additional seats would go empty -- unless the flight already
72 Jtdieffen : You've quoted this in other threads and we've argued the point, but the reality is that the A380 and 744 do not have identical trip costs. While I un
73 Zvezda : Poor decision making by airline management is not unknown.
74 Zvezda : The VC10 scenario is probably close to a worst-case scenario. For WhaleJet deliveries to total fewer than 100 would probably require that Boeing anno
75 Jtdieffen : I think that Boeing is well aware of that fact and has acknowledged it by saying that they will move forward with Y3 ahead of Y1 if necessary. At the
76 Zvezda : While the size of the largest airliners has been growing, the average size of airliners entering service has been declining for 25 years. Yes, CASM h
77 Stitch : And I've not claimed they were identical. I know I'm not dealing with absolutes here, which is why I am careful to use a vocabulary that reflects thi
78 Zvezda : I believe that is exactly correct. That would be an extremely risky strategy. I don't believe TG are making money with their 747-400s. I think TG mig
79 Stitch : Do they make money with their A340-600s? At 267 seats, that is a ~30% reduction in capacity compared to their 747-400s. And the A340-600 is supposed
80 Zvezda : That is true IF they are making money with their 747-400s, which in most cases I doubt. TG and SQ are not. I'm not sure about QF.
81 DLPMMM : It is not about the A380 verses the 748i. It is about TG and if the A380 (or indeed any VLA) makes sense in their route system. It could be much more
82 Jtdieffen : Okay and that's true, and I'm not refuting the point at all, BUT the 747-400 is nearly irrelevant to this discussion as it will also be phased out fo
83 Zvezda : At SQ, the trip costs of the WhaleJet are 3-5% higher than of the JumboJet, depending on stage length. A WhaleJet trip costs about 5% more on relativ
84 Zvezda : I cannot disagree, but an announcement that Y3 might be built before Y1 will not have the same effect on the willingness of airlines to order and tak
85 Stitch : I don't work in the commercial airline industry, so it's not like I talk to these folks on a daily basis. That being said, I do have a desire to give
86 Zvezda : I don't know but, if they don't, they're in big trouble. I have only flown a TG A340-600 once in the last year. There were four of us in F, but I wal
87 Zvezda : I don't believe any of those things either, but they seem to be strawman arguments. Do you believe the EU ban on imported Thai shrimp (which was canc
88 CasInterest : I agree with you on this. Although the A380 is touted as being more fuel efficient than other large widebodies, and lot of folks are forgetting that
89 Post contains images Stitch : Well the ban was apparently lifted in July 2003, and TG announced their deal in August 2004 and signed it in December of that same year. That being s
90 Ikramerica : Only if they price their final 125 seats the same that they price the final 25 of seats on a 744, and price all the others about the same. That's the
91 Zvezda : I think you're overstating the case a little bit. The WhaleJet has a significant advantage in aerodynamic efficiency due to its size despite the A350
92 Stitch : I guess I just put too much faith in the ability of airlines to make rationale and cognizant fleet choices. But considering how they're all losing th
93 ER757 : While I agree with this statement, I have a question regarding a portion of it. All the talk here has been of RASM and CASM comparisons between the v
94 Jtdieffen : Exactly. And I don't mean this to be an A380 bashing comment, because it is quite the bird, but the A380 has two things going against it at all times
95 Scipio : The size of the largest airliner has been constant for 37 years (1970-2007), but below that, the average size has trended significantly upward. There
96 Stitch : The A380-800 will offer more belly positions in the hold than a 747-400, though by how much varies on the number of passengers carried. Unfortunately
97 Stitch : And yet one cannot buy an airliner like one buys a car. Airlines cannot go to PAE or TLS and see rows upon rows of white-tailed widebodies which they
98 ER757 : But won't a fair number of these container positions be filled with baggage due to the additional butts in the seats upstairs? Of course, if airlines
99 NIKV69 : Not likely, there are a couple of carriers that can make that thing work but some are going to figure out it isn't worth it.
100 LifelinerOne : Indeed it is. However, back in 2004, Thai ordering the A380 was a good thing for the future growth of the airline. However, Thailand has been somewha
101 Post contains images Stitch : Yes they will, however the A380-800 offers 6-8 more positions than the 747-400. The real champ is the 777-300ER, with 14 more positions and a 3t high
102 Jtdieffen : Absolutely true, but the fact remains that things change, and decisions, no matter how well planned can turn out to be bad. I am well aware that buyi
103 Scipio : As you undoubtedly know, it was the Thais, not the EU, who made the link between shrimp and Airbuses. This is one of those disingenuous accusations t
104 2175301 : I'm not so sure about that. I believe that there is reasonable market for 6-12 VLA pass anger planes within the US. Primarily from East - West coast.
105 SpeedyGonzales : It is also worth noting that so far SQ, QF and AF have chosen to sacrifice cargo space for crew rest, while only EK has chosen to sacrifice passenger
106 Stitch : Oh I agree airlines will change orders. We've seen that happen. I'm just saying that some folks appear to have argued on this forum since the day Air
107 Viscount724 : And TG has made more poor decisions than most other airlines their size, especially when compared to their major Asian competitors.
108 Zvezda : Thank you for acknowledging the link. Which side proposed the link is irrelevant to its effect on TG's decision.
109 Jtdieffen : Well, yes and no, though. Boeing and MD both tossed the idea around, but Airbus was the only manufacturer to take a full bite of the apple. At that p
110 Stitch : I still believe that was driven more by Boeing's desire to conserve cash and continue to launch derivatives rather then spend the tens of billions ne
111 Post contains links Scipio : No TG decision was affected. Some Thais demanded that TG not proceed with its Airbus purchases unless the EU relented on the shrimp issue. The link w
112 Zvezda : Who said anything about blackmail??? If there was pressure placed on TG by the Thai government due to domestic pressure from the shrimp industry, the
113 Zvezda : What does "appear to have argued" mean??? Either people made that particular argument or they didn't. I and others have argued that the number of VLA
114 Stitch : Because I have only been a member of airliners.net since July of 2005. And yet when I did join, some people arguing against the A380 were repeating a
115 Ikramerica : Exactly. It's not all or nothing, black and white, except when it comes to AIRBUS making a profit, and either you believe Airbus's numbers on that or
116 2175301 : Stich: That is a great question - but, I think you missed something key and have thus mistated the real question. Airbus and Boeing have never ever b
117 Stitch : But Boeing's numbers were also ridiculously over the top. When Boeing was prepared to launch the 747-500X and 747-600X in 1996, they projected the 20
118 Scipio : I did not put those words in your mouth. I am referring to what some suggested in previous a.net discussions. However, your insinuations seem intende
119 DLPMMM : That is the entire point. JL, NH (formerly the VLA kings in many respects) and other VLA customers are finding that it is more profitable to utilize
120 EA772LR : But would you also agree that airlines not opting for the A380 now due to incredibly hard hit global economy are also using short-sided projections?
121 Pellegrine : Where did you get this 3-5% figure from? Not doubting you, but it seems lower than I expected, that's awfully good for the A380 then. TG makes convol
122 Astuteman : Undoubtedly true. Nevertheless, airlines are ordering both types side-by-side.... None of these are a surprise. The A380 is a LOT bigger plane than a
123 Scipio : 3-5% higher trip costs, to carry more passengers in much more comfortable conditions. This includes the costs of carrying those First Class suites ar
124 Zvezda : Your statement is very kind to the 747-8 programme. I envy the ability to see a single droplet of water in an otherwise empty glass as approximately
125 Zvezda : Not at all. I'm only suggesting that allegations that TG's purchase decision may have been influenced by the shrimp export considerations are plausib
126 Zvezda : This has been stated both publicly and privately by a number of SQ sources. There has been at least one press quoting of an SQ official, but I don't
127 Ikramerica : Not so sure. Lean times teach you lessons. One big lesson is to not overbuild for peak times. There is nothing stopping these carriers from either: A
128 Zvezda : I don't think anyone is disputing that the WhaleJet is vastly superior to the 747-400. One could define a hypothetical demand curve such that it woul
129 Pellegrine : This figure reflects the fuel burn difference which will be higher on the A380 vs. the B744?
130 Zvezda : No, that's total flight cost including landing fees, crew costs, etc. It's the difference between operating the flight and leaving the aircraft parke
131 Pellegrine : Ok thanks for the clarification, I thought this was awfully low to reflect fuel burn delta.
132 Astuteman : I don't think you'll find the difference between the fuel burn delta, and the operating cost delta overall is that large... The A380 (on a per-seat b
133 Revelation : Indeed, as mentioned, they do not seem to have the best long term planning. On the other hand, BA, UA, AA, et al are retiring 757s in favor of A32x a
134 Zvezda : Navigation and landing fees vary tremendously from route to route.
135 Scipio : Nothing in the facts supports this. Of course, if you opt to ignore the facts or invent your own facts, then you can believe whatever you want. That
136 RIX : - but this is far from what he exactly said: - that is, 748 has done fairly well for derivative in comparison to how A380 has done for all-new design
137 Zvezda : If I didn't quote enough context, then I apologize. At the moment, I think it is still an open question whether or not the 747-8 will turn out to hav
138 Cosmofly : Available slots for prospering customer that has ETOP problem. CI comes to mind. CX is also definitely a candidate as they explicitly say they would
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