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Boeing 20 Year Proj..only 740 VLAs Inc Freight  
User currently offlineDLPMMM From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 3591 posts, RR: 10
Posted (5 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 6999 times:

Boeing has announced their 20 year commercial aircraft sales projections.

http://boeing.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=694

Of interest is their drop in prospective VLA sales to only 740 over the next 20 years, including freighters.

"Large: 740 units ($220 billion) - Mostly replacement demand"

I wonder if Airbus will have a similar reduction in their VLA forcast.

Here is a link to their Interactive Long Term Market Outlook.

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/

69 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined exactly 10 years ago today! , 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 1, posted (5 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 6947 times:

An average of 37 per year including freighters seems optimistic to me.

User currently offlineAirNZ From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (5 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 6901 times:



Quoting Zvezda (Reply 1):
An average of 37 per year including freighters seems optimistic to me.

Or, alternatively, your own predictions and viewpoint of VLA's in general are way off the mark.


User currently offlineDLPMMM From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 3591 posts, RR: 10
Reply 3, posted (5 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 6889 times:



Quoting Zvezda (Reply 1):
An average of 37 per year including freighters seems optimistic to me.

Perhaps, but it is still much lower than the 1100 units in previous Boeing forecasts, or the 1300 units projected by Airbus.

Someone's projections are going to be very wrong.

http://www.airbus.com/fileadmin/docu...f/PDF_dl/04-passenger-aircraft.pdf


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined exactly 10 years ago today! , 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 4, posted (5 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 6848 times:



Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 3):
Someone's projections are going to be very wrong.

I think we can all agree on that.


User currently offlineWouwout From Netherlands, joined Dec 2007, 125 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (5 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 6851 times:

I'm not surprised that Boeing is making this projection. Let's read past the propaganda. I'm sure Boeing wants airlines to start believing VLA's are not the best option  Wink
I don't think anyone can predict what's going to happen from 10 years onwards (or maybe from 5 years onwards). A year ago most of us believed 2009 would be a fine year economically.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 30898 posts, RR: 87
Reply 6, posted (5 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 6836 times:
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Quoting Wouwout (Reply 5):
I'm not surprised that Boeing is making this projection. Let's read past the propaganda. I'm sure Boeing wants airlines to start believing VLA's are not the best option.  Wink

The problem for Boeing with such a view is that their strength in the 300-400 seat twin market is in danger of being eroded by the A350XWB family.

They also have a multi-billion investment in the 747-8 program that they would very much like to earn a positive return on.


User currently offlineDLPMMM From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 3591 posts, RR: 10
Reply 7, posted (5 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 6809 times:



Quoting Wouwout (Reply 5):
I'm not surprised that Boeing is making this projection. Let's read past the propaganda. I'm sure Boeing wants airlines to start believing VLA's are not the best option

But if I am not mistaken, Boeing had increased their VLA projections just 1 or 2 years ago. Please also remember that Boeing new 748i is also included in their VLA projections, so it hurts their own outlook.

I think that Boeing honestly believes in their projections, as does Airbus believe in theirs.


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined exactly 10 years ago today! , 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 8, posted (5 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 6769 times:



Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 7):
I think that Boeing honestly believes in their projections, as does Airbus believe in theirs.

Airbus and Boeing risk losing too much credibility with their customers to publish market forecasts which they believe are wrong because such a conspiracy would leak. One or both of them must be wrong, but each believes that it's probably the other. That doesn't speak to the question of why they believe what they believe. It is comfortable for people to believe what they want to believe.


User currently offlinePrebennorholm From Denmark, joined Mar 2000, 6429 posts, RR: 54
Reply 9, posted (5 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 6764 times:

My prediction is that practically all other prediction will be wrong. And that during the next 20 years there will be several unpredictable ups and downs.

100 years ago a professor at the London University in England predicted that if traffic continued its current development, then in year 2009 the streets of London would be covered with ten feet of horse shit.

It is quite easy to make valid predictions, except about the future.



Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs, Preben Norholm
User currently offlineDLPMMM From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 3591 posts, RR: 10
Reply 10, posted (5 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 6727 times:



Quoting Prebennorholm (Reply 9):
100 years ago a professor at the London University in England predicted that if traffic continued its current development, then in year 2009 the streets of London would be covered with ten feet of horse shit.

It is quite easy to make valid predictions, except about the future.

Except in this case, both companies have large amounts of money (and alot of people have their jobs) riding on these predictions.


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined exactly 10 years ago today! , 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 11, posted (5 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 6685 times:



Quoting Prebennorholm (Reply 9):
100 years ago a professor at the London University in England predicted that if traffic continued its current development, then in year 2009 the streets of London would be covered with ten feet of horse shit.

No one here is attempting to predict the commercial aviation market of 100 years from now. Meteorologists are now quite good at predicting the weather a week in advance. Other than historical averages, meteorologists have very little ability to predict the weather one month in advance. I think 20 year market forecasts for a mature industry with gradual technological progress is not akin to predicting city traffic 100 years into the future -- especially since motor cars had been around 23 years then.


User currently offlineJayinKitsap From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 769 posts, RR: 1
Reply 12, posted (5 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 6661 times:



Quoting Zvezda (Reply 1):
An average of 37 per year including freighters seems optimistic to me.

Historically the 747 sold at about this rate over its life, although many early on were bought to do the range not the capacity. Now there are a number of options for range, leaving the VLA's for capacity only. I agree though that the next 5 years it will be very difficult to reach 37 orders in any year for the VLA's.

The forecast also indicated that new build freighters would be in the mid 700's. The 748 should be able to get 300 to 350 of those, with the balance being the 777F and 330F. That leaves only 440 for passengers which would probably break down to 340 for the 380 and 100 for the 748I. Not very promising for either of them, about 20 frames per year each.

Previously, I thought the sustainable long term rates were 24 per year for the A380 and 16 per year for the 748I. Both manufactures have a lot of investment and infrastructure in place for those rates.


User currently offlineZvezda From Lithuania, joined exactly 10 years ago today! , 10511 posts, RR: 64
Reply 13, posted (5 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 6627 times:



Quoting JayinKitsap (Reply 12):
Historically the 747 sold at about this rate over its life, although many early on were bought to do the range not the capacity. Now there are a number of options for range, leaving the VLA's for capacity only.

According to Boeing, 60% of JumboJet customers bought them for the range, 10% bought them for the capacity, and 30% bought them for a combination of range and capacity. That smaller aircraft are now the range leaders has changed the market dramatically.


User currently offlineN14AZ From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2699 posts, RR: 25
Reply 14, posted (5 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 6435 times:

Has anybody a link to the previous forecasts of both Airbus and Boeing? Would be interesting to see how both forecasts have changed throughout the years.

User currently offlineDLPMMM From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 3591 posts, RR: 10
Reply 15, posted (5 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 6407 times:



Quoting JayinKitsap (Reply 12):
The forecast also indicated that new build freighters would be in the mid 700's. The 748 should be able to get 300 to 350 of those, with the balance being the 777F and 330F. That leaves only 440 for passengers which would probably break down to 340 for the 380 and 100 for the 748I. Not very promising for either of them, about 20 frames per year each.

Is that according to the Airbus projections?

According to the Boeing forecast, the total for pax and freight VLAs combined over the next 20 years is only 740. Problematic for both manufacturers I would think.


User currently offlineEA772LR From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 2836 posts, RR: 10
Reply 16, posted (5 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 6347 times:



Quoting JayinKitsap (Reply 12):
Historically the 747 sold at about this rate over its life, although many early on were bought to do the range not the capacity. Now there are a number of options for range, leaving the VLA's for capacity only. I agree though that the next 5 years it will be very difficult to reach 37 orders in any year for the VLA's.

The forecast also indicated that new build freighters would be in the mid 700's. The 748 should be able to get 300 to 350 of those, with the balance being the 777F and 330F. That leaves only 440 for passengers which would probably break down to 340 for the 380 and 100 for the 748I. Not very promising for either of them, about 20 frames per year each.

 checkmark  Excellent post.

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 13):
According to Boeing, 60% of JumboJet customers bought them for the range, 10% bought them for the capacity, and 30% bought them for a combination of range and capacity. That smaller aircraft are now the range leaders has changed the market dramatically.

Although I'm probably one of the few still optimistic about the A380 and it's potential, numbers like these, which historical orders have proven to be close to these, do concern me for the A380 program, and the prospects of the VLA market.

With that said, I wonder if the amazing advances in telecommunications, combined with an adjusted attitude of less frivolous spending for business will result in less overall demand for multiple daily flights, as well as a drop in J class demand. In theory this would mean either filling up 77W/3510 sized planes with more Y/Y+ or, with a possible drop in the number of flights to suit the business traveler, could result in fewer flights which may help the A380 and VLA market. Who knows where this industry is headed. I would hate to be a commercial aviation analyst right now.



We often judge others by their actions, but ourselves by our intentions.
User currently offlineRIX From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 1787 posts, RR: 1
Reply 17, posted (5 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 6309 times:



Quoting EA772LR (Reply 16):
advances in telecommunications, combined with an adjusted attitude of less frivolous spending for business will result in less overall demand for multiple daily flights, as well as a drop in J class demand

- I don't think frequency is that important for business fliers long haul: whatever flight I'm taking to Europe or South America (not talking about Asia as never flown there for business - although don't see any difference, same as for any region couples), I start working only next day. It's all about total capacity, and if demand on J class drops, then much less space is required - and this would be the end of VLAs. Not that I see this happening, but less business fliers would not help but hurt VLA.


User currently offlineSlinky09 From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2009, 827 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (5 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 6274 times:



Quoting RIX (Reply 17):
I don't think frequency is that important for business fliers long haul: whatever flight I'm taking to Europe

That may be true for many, however I have often thanked VS or BA for their frequency NYC-LON, miss an early evening flight due to late meetings and there's usually space later in the evening. But then say EWR-LHR isn't really long haul anymore?


User currently offlineRoseflyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 9607 posts, RR: 52
Reply 19, posted (5 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 6262 times:



Quoting Zvezda (Reply 8):
Airbus and Boeing risk losing too much credibility with their customers to publish market forecasts which they believe are wrong because such a conspiracy would leak. One or both of them must be wrong, but each believes that it's probably the other. That doesn't speak to the question of why they believe what they believe. It is comfortable for people to believe what they want to believe.

It is not just based on what people believe. The forecasting group consists of mathematicians who do forecasting and modeling of demand. I know a couple of people who do that and it is quite a complex algorithm that is used. It isn't just a bunch of managers that sit in a room and make predictions based on hunches.

So why are the models different? The factors considered are different. Econometric models are based on different inputs. While A might find one factor statistically significant such as percentage of airlines that are state owned, B might not even consider that factor.



If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21511 posts, RR: 60
Reply 20, posted (5 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 6218 times:

They are projecting that 490 new build VLA freighters will be delivered (not ordered) over 20 years. That means, assuming the A380F doesn't fly (as I think Boeing is assuming), they would deliver the current 747F backlog, + 410 additional orders, or about 21 per year (assuming a few cancelations from the current order book). That's double the number of new build 744F models delivered over 20 years...

That also only leaves room for 250 pax VLAs, and with Boeing and Airbus's backlog for those aircraft, that means nobody will order any more than 40 in 20 years?

They basically see no market for the A380 or 748i...



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12443 posts, RR: 25
Reply 21, posted (5 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 6195 times:



Quoting Wouwout (Reply 5):
I'm not surprised that Boeing is making this projection. Let's read past the propaganda. I'm sure Boeing wants airlines to start believing VLA's are not the best option

Looking at A380 and 747-8 sales, it must be working.

Both didn't sell squat during the best years of airplane sales ever.

Quoting Prebennorholm (Reply 9):
100 years ago a professor at the London University in England predicted that if traffic continued its current development, then in year 2009 the streets of London would be covered with ten feet of horse shit.

Thanks for the mental image!

I'll definitely be stealing this line for future use!  Smile



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlineN14AZ From Germany, joined Feb 2007, 2699 posts, RR: 25
Reply 22, posted (5 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 6189 times:



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 20):
They basically see no market for the A380 or 748i...

??? So why did they develop the 748i? Why are they building it?


User currently onlinePW100 From Netherlands, joined Jan 2002, 2445 posts, RR: 12
Reply 23, posted (5 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 6119 times:



Quoting DLPMMM (Thread starter):
Of interest is their drop in prospective VLA sales to only 740 over the next 20 years, including freighters



Quoting JayinKitsap (Reply 12):
The forecast also indicated that new build freighters would be in the mid 700's. The 748 should be able to get 300 to 350 of those, with the balance being the 777F and 330F

So a 332 is now considered a VLA  Wow! Big grin



Immigration officer: "What's the purpose of your visit to the USA?" Spotter: "Shooting airliners with my Canon!"
User currently offlineFrmrCAPCADET From United States of America, joined May 2008, 1714 posts, RR: 1
Reply 24, posted (5 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 6095 times:



Quoting JayinKitsap (Reply 12):
Historically the 747 sold at about this rate over its life, although many early on were bought to do the range not the capacity. Now there are a number of options for range, leaving the VLA's for capacity only. I agree though that the next 5 years it will be very difficult to reach 37 orders in any year for the VLA's.

The forecast also indicated that new build freighters would be in the mid 700's. The 748 should be able to get 300 to 350 of those, with the balance being the 777F and 330F. That leaves only 440 for passengers which would probably break down to 340 for the 380 and 100 for the 748I. Not very promising for either of them, about 20 frames per year each.

Previously, I thought the sustainable long term rates were 24 per year for the A380 and 16 per year for the 748I. Both manufactures have a lot of investment and infrastructure in place for those rates.

Somehow I suspect that if those figures are cut in half we might be close to what actually happens. If the economy should really take off, if oil should somehow go and stay cheap, if business does not continue to move to video conferencing, if airlines figure out how to make Y more comfortable then the larger number may be alright.



Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
25 XT6Wagon : Sure, they would LIKE to see a positive return on it. I doubt they expect one overall. The 748 program was all about spiking airbus's wheel. Boeing f
26 Ikramerica : Because things looked different 4 years ago. They may look different again 4 years from now. It's why these 20 year projections are stupid.
27 Keesje : The 747-8 and A380 are no competition, the -8 proved a freighter, the A380 a passenger aircraft. I think all is said. I have the feeling this Boeing
28 Jbernie : I would have thought the biggest killer of VLA for both A & B would be ETOPS. As the twins got better, the need for the VLA reduced. There are very ve
29 Stitch : I really believe the 777-300ER "changed the game". It was good when it was on the drawing board, it was great once it went into service, and it is onl
30 Post contains links EA772LR : Not quite Keesje. Did you see this article? "Boeing's communications staff quickly followed up to clarify that the company remains solidly behind the
31 Keesje : And that's what they should do / all they can do.
32 RIX : - and this is exactly what you should do / all you can do .
33 Rwessel : Careful - the "large freighter" category is *not* the same as the "large airplane" (aka VLA) category, so you cannot directly compare the numbers. Bo
34 Tdscanuck : If you take Boeing's 20-year forecast from 2000 and look what things should be in 2009, then compare it to the actuals from 2000 to 2009, it's actual
35 Cosmofly : The other disadvantages of VLA include - higher cost of diversions - higher probability of medical or unruly issues - higher cost of accidents The onl
36 PVG : sounds about right to me!
37 Pellegrine : Not that this means anything really. A lot of mathematicians and even physicists work in finance. Sometimes the smarter they are the bigger they blow
38 United Airline : I suppose the B 747-8 and the A 380 will be the last 4 engined aircraft. When the time comes, Boeing will build the Y2 or even the BWB two storey VLA
39 Zeke : Could almost apply that comment to any long haul aircraft, e.g. the 777-300ER. VLAs are here to stay, unless someone can come with a better way to tr
40 Ikramerica : Well that makes a lot more sense. I couldn't image they only saw prospects for 40 additional deliveries of passenger VLAs beyond the backlog of A380
41 Zeke : The A350F will lift over 80t as well, for a lower cost/kg.
42 Ikramerica : True, but that's at least 15 years away (F models are taking at least 10 years to come online these days), so I don't know that they will be a large
43 Zeke : More like 5-10 years, the A350F is supposed to come out after the -1000 along with the 900R, it is not that far away.
44 Astuteman : Indeed. Always of course with the A380 as the glaring exception, which has to have unique rules of its very own to demonstrate just how crap its pros
45 Post contains links N14AZ : I just checked Boeing's archive and found the following numbers: 2009: 740 2008: 980 www.boeing.com/news/releases/2008/q3/080709b_nr.html 2007: 960 w
46 LTBEWR : Another factor that could even mean lower numbers for VLA's will be oil prices and availability, short term (5 years or less), over 10 and 20 years. T
47 Avek00 : What makes you say this? Frequency is king on densely-traveled longhaul sectors because higher-end pax will often pay significant premiums for it.
48 Stitch : But some long-haul sectors cannot offer frequency in the sense of departures and arrivals spread out over an extended period of time (say 7AM to 7PM)
49 Tdscanuck : No, it's not. That's the whole reason they do 20 year forecasts and not 2-year forecasts. Over 20 years, most of the volitility damps out and you get
50 RIX : - I explained why, if you read more of my post than you quoted it. Or look at Reply 48.
51 Tugger : I can see Boeing not dropping it for the simple reason of pricing pressure on Airbus. The costs have already been sunk, the freighter will pay for th
52 Lightsaber : These forecasts are required for Boeing and Airbus. For them to launch a new airframe, that commits them to 30+ years of service and support (which is
53 EA772LR : But we won't Astuteman We want lots of A380s
54 Astuteman : Funnily enough, I don't mind if they don't sell by the thousand. I don't even care if it gets outsold by the 748i.. I'm certainly not excited by the
55 EA772LR : I don't know if you remember, but you and I discussed the economics of an A380-900 fitted with the TrentXWB sometime ago. It would also have obviousl
56 Pellegrine : If you don't include shocks into your algorithm, your algorithm is broken. Bad models shouldn't be paid attention to. So no, I don't understand this
57 Tdscanuck : I agree that bad models shouldn't be followed, but that doesn't translate to a broken model. Shocks, by definition, can't be modeled because they're
58 XT6Wagon : More importantly every year you get a new "20 years". So you would expect the 20 year forcast to change as a upcycle year goes in the books making th
59 MarcoPoloWorld : But that also works the other way; if a VLA has lower available-seat-mile (or kilometer) costs, the VLA benefits from the high-cost oil scenario - pr
60 Cosmofly : Not necessarily. For example going from SFO to TPE, you can leave at 9am and arriving early afternoon. Leaving at 12pm and you arrive late afternoon.
61 FrmrCAPCADET : The 20 year model may have specific utility to the sales division of B and A, it alerts suppliers as to what might be expected ahead. I suspect that p
62 Astuteman : And a new 20 year forecast.... And they seem to change with the current economic climate, despite being generated to cover the next 20 years You put
63 Eghansen : I think that the whole exercise leaves more questions than it answers. Some of the predictions are unlikely and some are impossible. For example: Boe
64 ScottB : I'd argue that the first game-changers were the A340-300, MD-11, and 777-200ER (I exclude the A340-200 simply because it sold so poorly compared to i
65 Rheinwaldner : No small twin that has got the range of a larger quad has ever replaced that quad in significant numbers. Even the 767 (which is a twin) mainly repla
66 Astuteman : ???? The very same people who use the " "So Far" is a very short time in this industry" argument to defend their particular favourite, show no partic
67 EBJ1248650 : Boeing's predictions for 747 sales, when the airplane was still very new, was up to 650 airplanes over the production life of the plane. They've sold
68 FrmrCAPCADET : Except the 350-10, other 350s, 787, 777, as well as suspected further derivatives.
69 EA772LR : When you find out, I'm there my friend
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