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UA's DC-area Service At A "loosened" DCA  
User currently offlineLHCVG From United States of America, joined May 2009, 1642 posts, RR: 2
Posted (5 years 6 months 1 week 3 days ago) and read 7383 times:

I couldn't think of another way to phrase it in the short subject line, but building off the previous topic of debating the DCA perimeter rule, it got me thinking: how would UA's DC route structure (DCA and IAD especially, but throw in BWI as well I guess) change if the perimeter rule were rescinded and/or slots imposed? I'm thinking that some LAX, SFO, and additional DEN frequencies would be added (at the expense of IAD, to cater to biz/gov't pax), but I could be wrong.

38 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 23302 posts, RR: 20
Reply 1, posted (5 years 6 months 1 week 3 days ago) and read 7339 times:

One issue is that UA doesn't have that many slots to play with. They only have three more flights than AA on ORD-DCA (though they have significantly more seats by virtue of AA using some CR7s on the route), and I imagine they'd like to maintain some sort of frequency lead in the market.


I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineC680 From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 588 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (5 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 7192 times:

Interesting question because UA does use their DCA slots to run a quasi-shuttle service to ORD (IIRC they even used to market it that way)

But DEN, LAX, and SFO would make tons of sense for them - especially B752 service.



My happy place is FL470 - what's yours?
User currently offlineFL787 From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 1551 posts, RR: 12
Reply 3, posted (5 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 7173 times:



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 1):
They only have three more flights than AA on ORD-DCA (though they have significantly more seats by virtue of AA using some CR7s on the route), and I imagine they'd like to maintain some sort of frequency lead in the market.

UA has five more. 15 to 10 but I know what you mean.



717,72S,732/3/4/5/G/8/9,744,752/3,763/4,772/3,D9S/5,M8/90,D10,319/20/21,332/3,388,CR2/7/9,EM2,ER4,E70/75/90,SF3,AR8
User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 23302 posts, RR: 20
Reply 4, posted (5 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 7094 times:



Quoting FL787 (Reply 3):
UA has five more. 15 to 10 but I know what you mean.

 checkmark  It's 15 M-R, 13 Friday, 9 Saturday, and 13 Sunday-- I was looking at today's schedule.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineGigneil From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 16347 posts, RR: 85
Reply 5, posted (5 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 7057 times:

UA could easily consolidate a few ORD trips on 757s to free slots and launch 757 service to SFO or LAX.

NS


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 23302 posts, RR: 20
Reply 6, posted (5 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 7022 times:



Quoting Gigneil (Reply 5):
UA could easily consolidate a few ORD trips on 757s to free slots and launch 757 service to SFO or LAX.

If I were a betting man, I'd bet on 2x SFO and 1x LAX.



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineGigneil From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 16347 posts, RR: 85
Reply 7, posted (5 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 7015 times:

I think that's probably a safe number, and what I'd bet on as well.

That being said, if they did 3x SFO, it wouldn't shock me. DCA is well served from the southwest on both US and AS, and there's nothing to SFO.

Another equally if not more interesting topic would be - what will US do?

NS


User currently offlineCubsrule From United States of America, joined May 2004, 23302 posts, RR: 20
Reply 8, posted (5 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 6998 times:



Quoting Gigneil (Reply 7):
That being said, if they did 3x SFO, it wouldn't shock me. DCA is well served from the southwest on both US and AS, and there's nothing to SFO.

Agreed. I do think three will be the total, though.

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 7):
Another equally if not more interesting topic would be - what will US do?

US has slots coming out of its ears...

4x LAX
2x SAN
3x SFO
2x PDX?
2x SEA?
Maybe even 1x SMF (it's about 300 PDEW, so they could likely fill a 319, but I don't know at what yields. If they have the aircraft, though, it may well be a better use of a slot than a fourth flight to GSO or BDL)



I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
User currently offlineRJpieces From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (5 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 6962 times:



Quoting Gigneil (Reply 7):
Another equally if not more interesting topic would be - what will US do?

Might other airlines like AA or DL also try to enter the transcon market from DCA?


User currently offlineGigneil From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 16347 posts, RR: 85
Reply 10, posted (5 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 6949 times:

I created another thread to discuss the US possibilities.

http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo...eneral_aviation/read.main/4447978/

Quoting RJpieces (Reply 9):
Might other airlines like AA or DL also try to enter the transcon market from DCA?

Perhaps. AA would certainly be interested in LA.

Delta has the second most slots at the airport, and the most hubs served within the perimeter, so they could certainly try to make something happen - their lack of feed at SFO would hurt, and LAX I'm just not sure would have room against what would no doubt be UA, AA, and AS.

NS


User currently offlineLHCVG From United States of America, joined May 2009, 1642 posts, RR: 2
Reply 11, posted (5 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 6794 times:

Would either AA or UA be likely to add their premium transcon product to DCA-LAX traffic? Even if there were not the number of premium flights that the JFK-LAX runs get, I would think at least a couple flights a day (even if on A319/320/B738) might work.

User currently offlineGigneil From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 16347 posts, RR: 85
Reply 12, posted (5 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 6754 times:



Quoting LHCVG (Reply 11):
Would either AA or UA be likely to add their premium transcon product to DCA-LAX traffic?

I don't believe AA has a premium product on their 757s.

Now, UA certainly does, and its a great one. I can certainly see p.s. working on DCA-LAX, perhaps SFO.

On the flip side, JFK isn't really slot restricted the way DCA is. If they run low on capacity on JFK-LAX or -SFO, they can just throw another frequency up. Not so with DCA. If the demand for DCA is high, then they're shooting themselves in the foot by running low density aircraft.

I can see it work either way. Certainly with Dulles there, operating a premium product from DCA has its merits.


NS


User currently offlineUA933 From Germany, joined Feb 2006, 220 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (5 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 6743 times:

Maybe P.S. on the DCA-LAX/SFO runs?


united - It's time to fly!
User currently offlineDescendVia From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (5 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 6675 times:



Quoting UA933 (Reply 13):

I could see PS service only to LAX and SFO. There is plenty of frequencies out of BWI and IAD to SFO/LAX not to warrant mainline service to these places so DCA would just be overkill.


User currently offlineGigneil From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 16347 posts, RR: 85
Reply 15, posted (5 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 6622 times:



Quoting DescendVia (Reply 14):
I could see PS service only to LAX and SFO. There is plenty of frequencies out of BWI and IAD to SFO/LAX not to warrant mainline service to these places so DCA would just be overkill.

There is sufficient demand in place to run high-capacity services to all three airports with no question whatsoever.

Could a yield premium be found by United on LAX and SFO from DCA? I think probably so, yes, if the timing is right. But could they fill 757s on a few flights a day as well? Absolutely.

NS


User currently offlineC680 From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 588 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (5 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 5955 times:



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 8):
US has slots coming out of its ears...

And Oh so many of those slots are used by Regional Jets.

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 12):
I can certainly see p.s. working on DCA-LAX, perhaps SFO.

I think this is a very good idea. 1x PS per day for both DCA-SFO and DCA-LAX would work well. There is a premium market for California to DC, and those folks would much rather fly from DCA than IAD.

One could say that UA would not want to move connecting IAD-California service to DCA because those flights cant feed the TATL IAD flights, but SFO and LAX both have good European networks on their own accord, and the connecting TATL market is not the same as a premium California - DC area customer base.



My happy place is FL470 - what's yours?
User currently offlineGigneil From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 16347 posts, RR: 85
Reply 17, posted (5 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 5858 times:

I agree that connecting traffic should be a secondary concern.

More than 1x P.S. would be needed IMHO, at least to catch the beginning and end of the business day.

NS


User currently offlineSlcDeltaRUmd11 From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 3638 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (5 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 5695 times:

I think that UA will launch a DCA-SFO and a DCA-LAX taking a few slots from ORD. Unfortunately for UA they don't have too many slots to free up as the only hub thats in perimeter is ORD for them and they want to keep a good schedule of frequencies.

Quoting RJpieces (Reply 9):
Might other airlines like AA or DL also try to enter the transcon market from DCA?

I dont think so for DL, the only true transcon they would want to add would be LAX-DCA but UA and AA will launch this route for sure and have a much better FF base to run it profitably.

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 10):
Delta has the second most slots at the airport, and the most hubs served within the perimeter, so they could certainly try to make something happen -

im sure that DL will want to add at least a second 757 on DCA-SLC as this route does extremely well. They will want to add it as a morning departure from DCA to connect with the popular bank landing around 10am ish.


User currently offlineScottB From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 6826 posts, RR: 32
Reply 19, posted (5 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 5535 times:



Quoting Gigneil (Reply 10):
their lack of feed at SFO would hurt, and LAX I'm just not sure would have room against what would no doubt be UA, AA, and AS.

If the DCA perimeter rule were to be loosened, I think we'd see AS petition to move its beyond-perimeter slot exemption for DCA-LAX to DCA-SEA or DCA-PDX; they're both stronger markets for AS. The public interest served by having that DCA-LAX flight on AS wouldn't be as compelling if AA, UA, US, and DL were offering DCA-LAX (which I feel is likely).

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 8):
US has slots coming out of its ears...

4x LAX
2x SAN
3x SFO
2x PDX?
2x SEA?
Maybe even 1x SMF (it's about 300 PDEW, so they could likely fill a 319, but I don't know at what yields. If they have the aircraft, though, it may well be a better use of a slot than a fourth flight to GSO or BDL)

US does have a big share of the DCA market and it does see a fair number of connecting passengers, but I'm not sure they could manage as much frequency as that. The only non-stop service PDX gets to the East hubs is a single daily to PHL. I think they'd have a tough time competing with AA and UA on non-stops to LAX and SFO.


User currently offlineLHCVG From United States of America, joined May 2009, 1642 posts, RR: 2
Reply 20, posted (5 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 5414 times:



Quoting Gigneil (Reply 17):
I agree that connecting traffic should be a secondary concern.

More than 1x P.S. would be needed IMHO, at least to catch the beginning and end of the business day.

That was my thinking as well -- that DCA could take up the n/s premium CA-DC traffic while leaving the low(er) yielding connecting traffic to the hub at IAD.


User currently offlineSlcDeltaRUmd11 From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 3638 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (5 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 5325 times:

Uniteds P.S. might be a really good idea for National. I could see that being a real hit for that market. The problem UA will have is getting enough slots to offer enough frequencies that kind of service would demand

User currently offlineLACA773 From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 4064 posts, RR: 2
Reply 22, posted (5 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 4966 times:
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I'm looking forward to hearing what LAXIntl has to say about this since he's so very knowledgble in regards to UA flights & services.

I could see UA adding DCA-LAX-DCA/DCA-SFO-DCA with a PS type service with the 757s like they use to JFK but wtih perhaps fewer F, J seats (or no F) and have an international J product instead and increasing Y+ capacity by another 12-18 seats. Eastbound have 0630ish & 2230ish departure and westbound 0830 & 1830ish. On the weekends, reduce frequency on Saturdays only to one daily.

I dont' see UA touching their ORD frequencies since this is a large route for them. Perhaps dropping a frequency from DEN or is that not necessary?

(I could also see AS adding an additional frequency on their LAX-DCA route with the additional flight being in the morning and the return being in the evening similar to what they offer to SEA currently. )

Thoughts?


User currently offlineYtib From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 578 posts, RR: 1
Reply 23, posted (5 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 4688 times:



Quoting LACA773 (Reply 22):
I could see UA adding DCA-LAX-DCA/DCA-SFO-DCA with a PS type service with the 757s like they use to JFK but wtih perhaps fewer F, J seats (or no F) and have an international J product instead and increasing Y+ capacity by another 12-18 seats. Eastbound have 0630ish & 2230ish departure and westbound 0830 & 1830ish. On the weekends, reduce frequency on Saturdays only to one daily.

Having a subset fleet with a different configuration would be problematic especially when a swap needs to take place due to mx or any other reason.

I also don't see them doing the PS service as once there is a DCA frequency Gov't fares would be involved and there is only a small amount of premium traffic. The p.s. option started as they needed to phase on the B762's and the routes before the front of the aircraft was a P fare bucket which was a higher level of service based on the film studio contracts.

Quoting LACA773 (Reply 22):
I dont' see UA touching their ORD frequencies since this is a large route for them. Perhaps dropping a frequency from DEN or is that not necessary?

There is only one flight a day to DEN, so not much to drop there. F9 has the other three non-stops.


User currently offlineLACA773 From United States of America, joined Nov 2004, 4064 posts, RR: 2
Reply 24, posted (5 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 4482 times:
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Quoting Ytib (Reply 23):
I also don't see them doing the PS service as once there is a DCA frequency Gov't fares would be involved and there is only a small amount of premium traffic. The p.s. option started as they needed to phase on the B762's and the routes before the front of the aircraft was a P fare bucket which was a higher level of service based on the film studio contracts



Quoting Ytib (Reply 23):
There is only one flight a day to DEN, so not much to drop there. F9 has the other three non-stops.

Thanks for the information, Ytib! Maybe a couple of 757s and on slower days, or slower periods, a 320, and 319 from LAX and from SFO a 757 on the a.m. flight and a 320 on the redeye. During slow periods and Saturdays from SFO 319x2 might suffice? Just a thought.


25 KGAIflyer : Many regarded TWA's former DCA-LAX 757 route as premium service -- whether it, in fact, was premium or not. And right now, United p.s. service would
26 Post contains images Gigneil : ORD is all they have to work with, really. They certainly can cut three, maybe 4, and upgauge more to A320s or 757s. Yeah, and I would think they'd n
27 SlcDeltaRUmd11 : Where is united going to get the additional slots? Everyone on here is talking about UA adding all of these flights but not reducing any. Why not take
28 Panova98 : Does anyone have recent data on the percentage of UA IAD traffic, by route, outbound and inbound, which is connecting [at IAD] traffic? I presume near
29 Gigneil : My assumption, and that of most of the posters thinking about it, is exactly what you suggest. They would have to consolidate flights to ORD if they
30 SlcDeltaRUmd11 : I don't think that would be too big a problem DCA is located pretty close to IAD The spare P.S. 757 could be flown down from JFK in an emergency. If
31 Ytib : You missed my point. You then have a different configuration of seating and now by using a JFK run you may not have enough seats and get to IDB pax.
32 Gigneil : He really meant a second config of p.s., someone was suggesting a different layout than the current p.s. 757. I don't believe that is correct. DCA fr
33 ScottB : I believe the "premium pricing" to DCA, however, is more along the lines of full-fare Y with perhaps limited demand for paid domestic F seats. They w
34 Gigneil : I think the drive diminishes their pricing power, and there's no argument - Dulles is a hub. It has to carry all that connecting traffic both interna
35 Cubsrule : While I hate to drag us down the road of considering another carrier, one important question is what, if anything, AA will do with a loosened DCA and
36 Mir : Big difference between IAD and JFK, though. IAD is a hub, and flights to IAD from SFO and LAX (which are also hubs) will have signficant numbers of p
37 Travelin man : I don't think UA would launch PS service on the LAX-DCA route. Much of the premium traffic generated on the route is generated by the entertainment an
38 United1 : UA does that already actually, a good number of the wide body flights on IAD-LAX/SFO are 3 class aircraft.
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