Jetfuel From Australia, joined Jan 2005, 1981 posts, RR: 0 Reply 1, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 62160 times:
Quoting Normie999 (Reply 283): Back in the day, a zillion entries ago, I speculated about Air France's "excellent safety record" (entry 6 at - AF A332 Crash (F-GZCP) Part 14 (by Moderators Jun 8 2009 in Civil Aviation)).
Well, two weeks on, fingers are being pointed every which way - the AF crew, faulty speed dials, weather updraft, weather downdraft, non ferrous panels, fly-by-wire, Airbus manufacturing techniques, etc etc, but not a lot at AF itself.
I'm not sure why not. There is a bit of history here - Concorde at CDG, Toronto, icing problems, and a propos F-GZCP, Airbus sent out a service bulletin in late 2007 advising the replacement of some probes, which Air France did not fit.
The article I quoted from was speculative, but it seemed well-informed, and raised questions about AF that don't yet seemed to have been addressed much.
Well, I am sorry to say, that like so many you are making suggestions and trying to implicate way too early. Please try and stick the the data and facts we have. Facts are great, but trying to draw conclusions from facts is dangerous until we know ALL the facts and information in relation to this tragedy
Where's the passion gone out of the airline industry? The smell of jetfuel and the romance of taking a flight....
Mandala499 From Indonesia, joined Aug 2001, 5880 posts, RR: 74 Reply 2, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 62212 times:
Quoting Speedbird128 (Reply 282): As a radar and non-radar controller, it does matter to me if there is track deviation. It *can* affect the longitudinal time separation if the aircraft behind at the same level doesn't deviate off track too, and also, it may interfere with assumed lateral separation from other airways (they may also have traffic deviating).
That's why the controllers are mainly interested in your ETA and ATA. If the route is in proximity to other routes and both routes are dense... well, you're better off telling someone about it. Who knows, someone near might be having TCAS / ModeC problems.
They might not have been able to raise ATC due to the weather conditions too at the time of AF447, VHF should be OK, but I doubt HF would be clear.
One thing is AF447 was coming up to enter Dakar FIR, as far as we know, they never managed to contact Dakar am i correct? (I think they use the "at least 15 mins prior to entry", on HF given the distance and weather).
By the way, whatever happened to "standard airway offset" method to reduce collision risk?
--------------
Sorry, I just can't let go of that "error" for knowingly flying into bad weather... *bangs head on table* Let me add to the above post on clouds and radar... What do they get on the planning stage? Apart from Wind charts (which doesn't show turbulence), they get the SigWX (significant weather), and Weather Satellite picture...
OK... on the following charts, the Atlantic between Africa and Brazil isn't so bad today... but then...
Weather Satellite Pic:
SigWX chart...
Look at the SigWX (significant weather) chart and see L (Lagos)... nice big swath of CB clouds... and look at the Satellite pic... nice solid cloud cover...
I guess we should all cancel our flights to/from/over Lagos today shall we?
*bangs head on table*
Wait wait... That says ISOL EMBD CB 500 XXX
Isolated Embedded Cumulonimbus Clouds ground to FL500...
Some might say, see, it's only ISOLATED... it's not really bad... if it's worse... they would have deviated and/or cancelled flights...
What's worse? Above ISOL, then we have OCNL... Occasional...
Then why not see this?
We got this... taken during one monsoon season...
The flight path is shown... Oh no... it went through the bad parts...
The aircraft was an A330, flying at FL360... it survived... It was damn bumpy, not a lot if deviations were required... and the OCNL CB parts was solid white on the Infra Red weather satellite pic... and everyone prayed during the flight (it was a Hajj flight), and the plane traversed through the bad weather later on the way back... and again and again... everyday throughout the Hajj season during the monsoon.
They (pilots), do this everyday! The aircraft survived.
Why did I pick these examples and why are they relevant to AF447? It just shows that facing the weather and having to go through these so called "solid patches of white" is an everyday occurence. Whilst increased vigilance and awareness during the flight is called for, it's not something you'd spend tens of tons of fuel a flight to avoid... and the intensity of the clouds along the route of AF447, isn't anything out of the ordinary. What may be out of the ordinary, was the rapid change in temperature at FL350, which cannot be accurately predicted beforehand, and nothing in the aircraft can predict such a change.
By the way, don't be surprised to see nothing but red cruising around Lagos tonight...
Anyone got the SigWX chart for the Africa-Brazil crossing for that night?
Mandala499
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
757GB From Uruguay, joined Feb 2009, 532 posts, RR: 2 Reply 4, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 61328 times:
Quoting Jetfuel (Reply 1): Facts are great, but trying to draw conclusions from facts is dangerous until we know ALL the facts and information in relation to this tragedy
It seems like whenever a new fact, fragment of debris or piece of information comes out, we're not taking things at face value, instead reading too much into them. Information is coming so slowly, and we're understandably anxious. This is not what people like to hear but we don't know much, and will not know a whole lot for a while apparently.
At work I am the local aviation nut, and everyday I run into people asking me: so what happened to the Air France flight? Frustrating as it is, I honestly have to say that things start pointing to an inflight breakup, but beyond that we don't really know anything.
God is The Alpha and The Omega. We come from God. We go towards God. What an Amazing Journey...
Rwdriver From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 22 posts, RR: 0 Reply 5, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 60419 times:
Does anyone know if the A330-xxx has variable ratio or variable stop rudder control systems? This presents an interesting scenario correlation to AA578 especially given potentially inaccurate airspeed indications. Additionally, did PF have acrobatic experience? That would say a lot about potential rudder inputs in severe turblence. Given the combination of significant turbulence, inaccurate airspeed data and the effect of same on variable rudder control systems, and composite materials leads to an interesting scenario.
Giopan1975 From Greece, joined Jun 2009, 238 posts, RR: 0 Reply 6, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 60150 times:
Quoting Mandala499 (Reply 2): It just shows that facing the weather and having to go through these so called "solid patches of white" is an everyday occurence.
Nicely put Mandala. Allow me one question. What kind of images of tropical intense weather (like monsoons) over the equator area should an on board weather radar depict in order for a cockpit crew, beginning to make the crossing, to decide to turn back and land in lets say Recife. I doubt very much if such a case occurs frequently. Please exclude cases of hurricanes, cyclones, typhoons etc.
Why get so offended by the scenario of "error in picking up the wrong way while playing hide-and-seek with the thunderstorms"? It depends on one's point of view. You may call it very very bad luck (once every x millions of flights), someone else may call it human error. Errors, even the most costly, are for human beings. Many accidents in aviation are one of a kind and have brought major changes after their occurance and many people dying. Maybe that will prove a rare accident having a sole cause : severe weather causing plane disintegration. You can then blame weather for becoming more unperdictable because of global warming? pilots for underestimating the intensity of weather? It is up to you to choose.
Generally speaking (and not in connection to the terrible accident), sometimes such an error can derive from human ego and persistance to manage to make it through the bad weather and achieve a target (reach a destination) on time (it has happened before in aviation and happens in all aspects of a man's routine for example in driving one's car - that obsession one often has to fininish some task one way or another). Otherwise it could mean humiliation and bring critisism by co-workers. Sometimes airliners' policies put great deals of pressure on pilots to be careful with fuel consumption (especially in our times of tight budgets) and to be punctual to the minute with timetables (because of intense competition).
Soon7x7 From United States of America, joined May 2006, 2523 posts, RR: 16 Reply 7, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 59576 times:
Be prepared to get flamed on this point of view...I brought up the AA587/AF447 V/fin composite thingie last week,...still can't walk straight however have been doing much research including an FAA safety seminar last Saturday that raised the issue of Carbon/metal construction. Still stand by my opinion more now than even last week ,the more research I do...j
ThegreatRDU From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 2210 posts, RR: 2 Reply 8, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 59190 times:
Time is ticking for the black box and flight data recorder...
Pihero From France, joined Jan 2005, 3009 posts, RR: 71 Reply 9, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 58812 times:
Quoting Giopan1975 (Reply 6): What kind of images of tropical intense weather (like monsoons) over the equator area should an on board weather radar depict in order for a cockpit crew, beginning to make the crossing, to decide to turn back and land in lets say Recife. I doubt very much if such a case occurs frequently. Please exclude cases of hurricanes, cyclones, typhoons etc.
Answer : NONE . Your persistence in trying to prove your case is based on very little knowledge of airliners operations / We just don't happen on an unexpected situation like this one ; we have a flight preparation before departure, at which we are provided with all the weather information available : Synoptic charts, surface chart, altitude charts at 850, 700, 500, 300 &nd 200 HPa, crew weather reports and satellite pictures, both for sit and infra red. Plus a telephone link with a dispatcher who can slice up the sat picture to give us the best levels for turbulence...etc....etc... It's only after that analysis that we accept or not the planned route, chose the fuel uplift and basically deal with the Tec and Nav aspects of the planning.
In cases of really severe weather like cyclones and tornadoes, the dispatchers would prepare for some deviations to the stored routes, the minimum being 200 Nm from the depression, deviation that has to be flight-planned, giving an even wider margin to the phenomenon as it must respect established routes and waypoints.
AF crews in particular are well aware of the particularities of tropical weather, first by going through a thorough course on the subject, secondly by experience accumulated over 85 years or so. (We opened the South Atlantic route for the Europeans with the Germans).
We have now two studies on the weather situation at the time AF 447 crossed the ITCZ, one by Tim Vasquez, the other by the METEOFRANCE engineers (found on the BEA site which I cited some 300 posts ago). Both agreed that there was nothing out of the ordinary in the situation, MeteoFrance stressing the fact that the Cbs had started their decaying phase at 0200Z, which Tim just gives a passing comment.
On Tim's study, the reconstituted radar picture, correlated with the Sat picture also shows that even if they hadn't deviated, they would have cleared the red spots of the active Cbs by a wide margin.
So, now, why don't you really tell what your gripe is about and what your agenda is ? I am personally interested. As for your claims that you do it in order to further flight safety, your knowledge of this subject is appallingly very selective.
Now for the so-called 200 Nm deviation by the following aircraft. Some posters have said that they saw AF 447 going straight into the storm, that they saw them as a TCAS target at 80 Nm, and then they deviated to the left... Fine...a/ that would have put them about smack over the "cold spots" Tim shows in his Fig 6, and b/ that would have necessitated a track correction of some 70 degrees. Wow ! Wonder what ATC and the aircraft in the vicinity thought of that !
Quoting Giopan1975 (Reply 6): .... an error can derive from human ego and persistence....
Tietkej From Germany, joined Jun 2009, 71 posts, RR: 1 Reply 10, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 58356 times:
Quoting Giopan1975 (Reply 265): Errors, even the most costly, are for human beings.
True, Giopan1975. And you can have your opinion, without any doubt. But aircraft are built by people, too. As is the equipment. So are weather forecasts. Need more?
You created a crystal ball theory and I am happy to show you what I mean with that:
1)
Quoting Giopan1975 (Reply 265): I don’t see any reason why cockpit crews cannot be blamed for anything (even at this stage of the investigation and being totally speculative with very little evidence at hand) since pilot error is clearly top of the list of aviation accident causes.
Fine, you are suggesting crew error could have contributed to the accident and you point to historical evidence. Nothing wrong with that, except that, at this point, historical information is completely unrelated to this specific accident.
2)
Quoting Giopan1975 (Reply 265): ...they would deviate this kind of thunderstorm activity and the fact of other planes rerouting during the same night, I think we could reach some still unsafe but conclusion.
Pure speculation.
3)
Quoting Giopan1975 (Reply 265): ...that the aircraft should have never been caught in that area of severe weather activity in the first place.
Wild speculation unless you had a personal tracking device installed on the plane.
4)
Quoting Giopan1975 (Reply 265): So, probable cause (together with or among others?) that plane was flying in severe weather.
This is speculation based on more speculation - other sources suggest the weather wasn't all that bad at all. Now you're combining several speculative assumptions to create a 'probable' cause.
5)
Quoting Giopan1975 (Reply 265): Of course one may try to find as many excuses as one likes (unreliable weather radar, very fast and not easily predictable developing weather systems etc).
Well, pointing the finger (quoting you again) is certainly easier, sir, isn't it? That alleviates the necessity to confine yourself to the facts. What a convenient way of reaching a conclusion.
So, at least in my view, what the problem with your remarks is, is that you combine too many assumptions as you try to establish cause and effect. Understandably, this creates a lot of frustration in the minds of those who have been trying to avoid that over the cause of the last 5,000 (!) posts.
I hope you understand what I am getting at. I'm not attacking you personally, just trying to set this straight. Of course, everyone's entitled to opinion.
UALWN From Andorra, joined Jun 2009, 1748 posts, RR: 1 Reply 11, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 58325 times:
In part 16 NA wrote:
"IB reported a deviation of 30 minutes, that would be more than 60 or 70 miles for sure unless they flew a crazy zig-zag course, but also likely less than 200 miles."
I haven't read that anywhere. Instead, I read a few reports quoting the deviation of IB6024 as 30 nm in some places, 60 km in others. This is one example:
On that night I was flying TP168, GIG-LIS. The plane left GIG about 75 minutes prior to AF447. We only experienced light turbulence, about which the captain warned us before taking off. We didn't seem to deviate from the standard path that I have taken in other trips from GIG to Europe, although I realize this is a rather imprecise statement.
Pihero From France, joined Jan 2005, 3009 posts, RR: 71 Reply 12, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 58333 times:
Quoting 757GB (Reply 4): It seems like whenever a new fact, fragment of debris or piece of information comes out, we're not taking things at face value, instead reading too much into them
Sorry to disagree but I don't think you're totally correct : Most people only see what they want to see and nowadays, it's trying to prove in-flight disintegration or ground impact.
There are lots of more important aspects that we could concentrate on :
Examples
1/- There are now two pieces that we can identify as parts of the crew rest container : They have been found on separate occasions, but how far from each other ?
2/- The crew jump seats, now identified as the L1 door, the senior purser position, associated with the doctor's kit, also in the forward part of the cabin. Where were they found ?
3/- The left #1 spoiler... Did the tanker find it in a totally remote area or were there some other debris with it floating alongside? what could cause the kind of breakage that we can observe ?
4/- The bodies, when identified, were they found in groups as they were in their official seating ? or did they belong to all classes of the cabin? (That answer will have to wait at least two months)
5/- The ACARS messages that everybody has forgotten about : How to make sense with them ? What are they indicative of ? Can we accept their order of reception by the maintenance computer ?...
By asking that kind of questions, and only that way, we could escape the trap of the "pet theories" and come closer to an understanding of what could have happened. But, of course, we'll know everything when the investigation report is published.
I' not sure we could wait that long.
Pihero From France, joined Jan 2005, 3009 posts, RR: 71 Reply 13, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 58036 times:
Quoting UALWN (Reply 11): I haven't read that anywhere. Instead, I read a few reports quoting the deviation of IB6024 as 30 nm in some places, 60 km in others. This is one example:
Thank you, UALWN.
That's what I could remember, too.
Please note that their course alteration to the east as reported would have taken in the same situation as pictured by Tim.
Which tends to prove that radar interpretation can lead to many different decisions.
Gonzalo From Chile, joined Aug 2005, 818 posts, RR: 0 Reply 14, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 6 days ago) and read 57870 times:
Last information released ( about 30 min. ago ) for the FAB.
"The Brazilian Navy Command and Aeronautical Command inform that, in the search today, military personnel aboard aircraft sighted wreckage 950 kilometers from Fernando de Noronha, in an area close to where debris was found before. No bodies were sighted".
No more details about size of the wreckage spotted.
Saludos.
G.
Circling the world, that's the way to live !! DC-3 / EMB-110 / Fokker F-27 / Ab318-19-20 / B732 / B763
Trystero From Portugal, joined Oct 2008, 242 posts, RR: 0 Reply 15, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 6 days ago) and read 57592 times:
Quoting Pihero (Reply 12): I' not sure we could wait that long.
Well, I'm afraid that what's left. I've read most of the posts since the accident and have participate in almost every thread, mainly by asking questions. There has been many qualified insights, though some are too technical for my (very small...) knowledge. I believe a great deal of this accident threads as to do with some cathartic effect we all seek to overcome these tragedies, and sometimes people go a bit out of line. The topic is cooling down, which is a good thing. It still puzzles me that the definitive reports take so long, not obviously in the present case, but in others that apparently were more simple. I guess the speediness of today's world contaminates everything...
I would like to thank Mandala449 for all his excellent post on various issues. Thank you for educating the non-pilots among us...
At the end of thread 16 there was unfortunately a discussion about pilot error - as if the pilot making what turns out to be a wrong decision is automatically a case of pilot error.
Another did mention that pilot error is the last thing looked at by the root cause team.
I'd like to expand on that: I am a root cause evaluator in the Nuclear Power industry. Aerospace, Medical, and Nuclear all use the same process (and consult the same industry expert consultants to assist on any truly big event).
Right now we only have a few facts and a limited timeline. Before the root cause investigation can begine to narrow down the cause of the event there will be hundreds - if not thousands - of individual facts. Only then by assembling all of these individual facts and building a timeline can a pattern appear that leads to a root cause - or accasionally several root causes.
We are taught that in Root Cause analysis that actual human actions are virtually never the root cause. In the many years I have been involved with nuclear plant root causes (we do them on any major unexpected upset of the plant, any near miss, any major process problem, etc.) I only know of one root cause analysis where the conclusion pointed to "operator" error/intentional actions. In my discussions with industry peers it seems that this only comes up once in a while.
Now that does not mean that someone did not in fact do something that caused the event. The key is that we look for why that person did what they did.
Was it improper training... Then the root cause is a weakness in the training program; and we perform better training.
Was it an improper procedure... then the root cause digs into why the procedure was wrong?
Was it that a supervisor or manager was standing over their shoulder telling & intimidating them that they will do what they want or they will be "in trouble" (a very quick career ending move for the supervisor or manager - they will never get a job in the nuclear industry again); or perhaps just distracting the operator from their job.
The list goes on and on; including the fact that at times people face situations where they have not been trained on how to recognize what is going on and/or how to properly respond as the situation is very rare.
In fact - more often we come to a conclusion that we cannot identify a root cause than we identify that it was just "operator" error. There are of course casual contributing factors that are always identified.
Now I admit that an airplane is in a bit different situation as a pilot does not have multiple people they can check with for any given situation like exist in a nuke plant. However, in the end the pilot, copilot, and other crew must make a decision (and not making a decision is a decision as well) - and they make the best one they know how based on their training, experience, etc.
Even if it is the "wrong" decision and it causes the event - that does not necessarily mean it was "pilot/operator" error.
This does not mean that pilot error (or intentional actions) does not occur. Just that the conclusion to reach that point has to consider and eliminate all of the factors that could lead a person to making a wrong decision - and then ask: should the person have really known what to do.
I would hope that there are a few pilots on this board who have participated in a Root Cause Evaluation. It takes at least a month to be involved even in a small part of such an investigation - but going through the process is very educational.
As far as this crash: we may never know what the cause of it was. In fact – even if we recover the CVR and FDR we may never know the cause.
Meanwhile – I will track the few facts we do know – and watch for others to see where it could go. Until then there are dozens of possible causes and as long of list of more improbably causes (meteorites/space junk, aliens, monsters from the deep, etc).
ComeAndGo From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 900 posts, RR: 0 Reply 17, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 6 days ago) and read 57449 times:
Quoting Rwdriver (Reply 5): Does anyone know if the A330-xxx has variable ratio or variable stop rudder control systems? This presents an interesting scenario correlation to AA578 especially given potentially inaccurate airspeed indications. Additionally, did PF have acrobatic experience? That would say a lot about potential rudder inputs in severe turblence.
Quoting Soon7x7 (Reply 7): Be prepared to get flamed on this point of view...I brought up the AA587/AF447 V/fin composite thingie last week,...still can't walk straight however have been doing much research including an FAA safety seminar last Saturday that raised the issue of Carbon/metal construction. Still stand by my opinion more now than even last week ,the more research I do...j
If you look at some of the better images of the vertical stabilizer, you can see parts of the fuselage are still bolted to the vertical stabilizer. In the AA crash one of the four bolts of VS was ripped off and thus resulted in the failure of the vertical stabilizer. But here you can see the bolts are still there. If anything the forces were such that the vertical stabilizer ripped out a piece of the rear fuselage. And that's unlikely to be the cause of the crash but rather a consequence of the crash.
Mandala499 From Indonesia, joined Aug 2001, 5880 posts, RR: 74 Reply 18, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 56920 times:
Quoting Giopan1975 (Reply 6): Why get so offended by the scenario of "error in picking up the wrong way while playing hide-and-seek with the thunderstorms"?
If you use the word error, it's much milder than:
Quoting Giopan1975 (Reply 265): I don’t see any reason why cockpit crews cannot be blamed for anything (even at this stage of the investigation and being totally speculative with very little evidence at hand) since pilot error is clearly top of the list of aviation accident causes.
Blame and error are 2 different things... Blame/culpability/liability, belongs in the courtroom. Error is the normative word for indicating a mistake for accident investigation purposes... even when coming accross willful misconduct.
One cannot point the finger of blame with this scarce amount of information. When the information is "adequate", and after the accident investigation is over, then the lawyers and judges can start their own work.
Pointing the blame finger at this stage, does nothing to improve safety and does nothing to prevent future loss of life. As for criminal liability, there is also a huge debate on its purpose and detrimental effect to safety in general. I'll leave the discussions on criminalisation of accidents for a separate topic... please!
I do hope you understand the above... we're not asking for you to agree to it.
Let's get on with the subject in hand, the accident.
Quoting Giopan1975 (Reply 6): What kind of images of tropical intense weather (like monsoons) over the equator area should an on board weather radar depict in order for a cockpit crew, beginning to make the crossing, to decide to turn back and land in lets say Recife. I doubt very much if such a case occurs frequently. Please exclude cases of hurricanes, cyclones, typhoons etc.
Black patches/wedges of black with red borders (no intermediate yellows and/or green between the red and the black)... That's a no-no for everyone on a revenue flight... doesn't matter if you possess 1hr, 50hrs, 500hrs, 5000hrs or 30,000hrs in your log book, it's a no-no.
Apart from that... there really is no defined limits. It's like asking, "how do you go across a moving crowd?" The answer is... there's no set path. One has to rely on one's training, systems understanding, meteo understanding, and experience (one's own, or from others).
Your doubt in the frequency of turning back is justified... on very few occasions would you then say, "oh-oh, this is too much, let's turn back" (unless you see those blackholes on the radar, you just avoid them).
A wide consistent blanket of red isn't avoidable sometimes. You can play the gain dial to see if you can get an uncalibrated picture by shifting the intensity readouts... but you have to know what you're doing. In the God knows how many flights I've done in my life (not too many, but not a few), I've only been in a situation of making that 180 turn once... I was a passenger, but can see the solid wall of a series of CBs ahead, left, and right... we didn't divert, we just went around the dead-end and found another gap... a big gap in fact. It was dusk... so there was some light.
A blanket of red can mean... dense consistent rain (heck, just go through it), or dense rain with several CBs there (rare, but it happens). A lot of the time, you'll get a blanket of green/yellows and the patches of red which are potential CBs... Now when you can see an anvil, you don't bang your head into it... The problem is... it does not have to be red to signify an anvil. You can have a CB of green... Normally, one would expect the CBs to be a patch of red. Whats dangerous about a CB is not always the amount of precipitation, but the updrafts and downdrafts associated with it, and it doesn't have to be a huge one or a red one to rip your plane apart, or give you a roller coaster ride nearby it, or give you a hailstorm near it or... give you icing...
The solution against this isn't easy. If you make the radars more powerful, you risk loosing accuracy... technology can sort that as time goes by, but you have to make it safe. You don't want to fry, or microwave someone or sterilize someone's reproductive organs from accidentally beaming the radar onto them whilst on the ground. The radars are afterall, electromagnetic radiation transmitters.
Whilst saying turning back to Recife is easy because this plane didn't and ended up in the sea in pieces, the question remains, did the crew see what was ahead? The thing is, you can be between patches of cloud and get icing. AF447 is strongly suspected to be brought to a haywire 4 minutes because of it prior to its demise.
There are reports suggesting that a rapid change in temperature occured which can cause rapid and excessive icing. This is probably what occured during Air Caraibe's similar episode. Unfortunately, planes aren't equipped to see what temperatures lie ahead. If the same happened to AF447, we want to know why Air Caraibes made it through and AF447 didn't... so we can better prepare flight crews the next time this happens to them should they enter such an unfortunate situation.
Turning back is the easy way out, but remember, airlines are there to carry passengers from A to B safely and in a timely manner... but they still have to get the passengers from A to B. We can all sit here and talk about safety, thanks to the benefit of hindsight, we can say, they should have turned back... but then, what would the passengers think?
This is the irony of air safety... airlines can be blamed for saving people's lifes!
Q: "Why did we divert to Recife?"
A: "The weather was bad, so we diverted for your safety!"
Q: "But the other Air France flight made it, the Iberia flight made it, why not us? You're lousy! I'm flying someone next time!"
As crazy as it sounds, those responses aren't abnormal. There is that difficult balance crews and the airline has to consider... talk about trying to reach zero accidents as an absolute goal are mere rubbish... But carelessness or gross negligence isn't the way to go either... have too many accidents and the passengers will fly with someone else. Have too many delays and diversions when others aren't doing the same, and the passengers will fly with someone else.
Making those judgement calls on whether to continue or not (and how to deal with a mishap onboard), is why crews get paid... an unlicensed person can fly the plane from A to B on a good day, the technology exist to support that, to the extent that on good days, you don't need the crew at all and just leave it for the automation to take care of it... But again, who's going to make the judgement call in difficult circumstances? A machine or a human? As imperfect humans are, I'd choose the humans and not the machine, because machines are designed by humans. Nuff said!
There is no doubt that an error occured during AF447... be it technical or human... but I do hope you understand that apportioning blame so early is counter productive to the future of air safety!
Quoting Giopan1975 (Reply 6): Generally speaking (and not in connection to the terrible accident), sometimes such an error can derive from human ego and persistance to manage to make it through the bad weather and achieve a target (reach a destination) on time (it has happened before in aviation and happens in all aspects of a man's routine for example in driving one's car - that obsession one often has to fininish some task one way or another). Otherwise it could mean humiliation and bring critisism by co-workers. Sometimes airliners' policies put great deals of pressure on pilots to be careful with fuel consumption (especially in our times of tight budgets) and to be punctual to the minute with timetables (because of intense competition).
If you want to talk about human error and ego as a factor in this accident, then let's try and find out more. You don't get that by stating there's undoubtedly blame on the crew... Let's find out what happened first, and we'll play the blaming game later if needed!
---
What do pilots get in the pre-flight stage with regards to the route? Let me elaborate what Pihero mentioned... so as to appreciate the amount of information provided prior to the flight.
- Flight details.
- Aircraft capability and maintenance status details.
- The route itself (routing).
- What's in the aircraft (weights)
- What's the minimum required fuel, what's the recommended fuel given the conditions, and what extra fuel the crew wants.
- What are they waypoints, and when is the expected arrival times at those - waypoints based on flightplan, what height, what speed.
- What are the forecasted wind and temperature at those waypoints.
- Route plots, and range circles to suitable contingency diversionary airfields, including origin and destinations.
- Information of the airfields, weather reports actual and forecasted for those airfields, and notams on those airfields, and areas.
- Any significant meteorological information that can affect the flight... hurricanes, or volcano ash.
- Any Notices to airplanes and air crew (NOTAMs) that can affect the flight.
- Significant Weather report and data and forecasts.
- Wind and temperature charts.
- Technical bulletins, notices and advisories.
Mandala499
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
Giopan1975 From Greece, joined Jun 2009, 238 posts, RR: 0 Reply 19, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 56892 times:
Quoting Pihero (Reply 9): Your persistence in trying to prove your case.....
There is no case I am trying to prove, just trying to see things from different angles. And there is no scenario (from the ones that have been heavily discussed) that can be dismissed so far.
You are doing nothing more than I do and that is pure speculation. Our only difference is my very little knowledge on airlines operations vs you being a pro. The rest is called speculation - doesnt matter if it comes from a pilot or a passenger. Your point that weather was nothing special and another day at the office for the french crew is very very possible and totally acceptable but still no concrete evidence to support it 100% unless you know something the rest of the world doesnt. Tim's study may be great but cannon be conclusive of anything. His own words. "Of course anything so far is speculation until more evidence comes in, and for all we know the cause of the downing could have been anything from turbulence to coincidental problems like a cargo fire. " How can you be so sure that some exceptional weather phenomena did not occur at a teribbly unlucky time sequence?
Quoting Pihero (Reply 9): So, now, why don't you really tell what your gripe is about and what your agenda is ? I am personally interested.
Give us a break - there is no Giopan ghost hunting AF. You already have enough problems.
Quoting Pihero (Reply 9): we have a flight preparation before departure, at which we are provided with all the weather information available
And what happens when weather changes dramatically some hours into a 12-hour flight?
Quoting Pihero (Reply 9): AF crews in particular are well aware of the particularities of tropical weather, first by going through a thorough course on the subject, secondly by experience accumulated over 85 years or so. (We opened the South Atlantic route for the Europeans with the Germans).
That is surely a great achievement. But sadly, truly sadly, AF is the first to have such a big loss in this route.
Mandala499 From Indonesia, joined Aug 2001, 5880 posts, RR: 74 Reply 20, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 56684 times:
OK you two... cool it
Quoting Giopan1975 (Reply 19): And what happens when weather changes dramatically some hours into a 12-hour flight?
You can get 6hr, 12hr, 24hr forecasts... forecasts are just... forecasts... it can change.
For some items you can get hourly updated forecasts (such as weather forecast at destinations)... For enroute weather, the 6,12,24 is the norm, some items you only get the 12hr, some only the 24...
If your expected tailwind disappears or the zero headwind becomes a jetstream against you, tough... make an extra stop if you have to.
Aviation enroute weather forecasting is I believe, amongst the very best out there... not sure about those hurricane path forecasts though...
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
Pihero From France, joined Jan 2005, 3009 posts, RR: 71 Reply 21, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 56559 times:
Quoting Giopan1975 (Reply 19): Give us a break - there is no Giopan ghost hunting AF. You already have enough problems.
Quoting Giopan1975 (Reply 19):
That is surely a great achievement. But sadly, truly sadly, AF is the first to have such a big loss in this route.
It's getting clearer and clearer. Now you can ironize on the demise of 228 people. Bravo !
Quoting Giopan1975 (Reply 19):
You are doing nothing more than I do and that is pure speculation.
Show me where I did speculate.
Quoting Giopan1975 (Reply 19): Our only difference is my very little knowledge on airlines operations
So I suggest a bit more learning and a bit less assuming.
Quoting Giopan1975 (Reply 19): How can you be so sure that some exceptional weather phenomena did not occur at a teribbly unlucky time sequence?
...and not noticed by anyone ?
Actually, there was one, not necessarily weatherr-related : A 4.7 rs seism in the vicinity. It was recorded by at least seven seismic observation stations. And unfortunately, we don't have a lot of experience of an earthquake bringing down an airliner.
ComeAndGo From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 900 posts, RR: 0 Reply 23, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 56069 times:
Quoting Pihero (Reply 21): Actually, there was one, not necessarily weatherr-related : A 4.7 rs seism in the vicinity. It was recorded by at least seven seismic observation stations. And unfortunately, we don't have a lot of experience of an earthquake bringing down an airliner.
That was on the previews days. Go back to like thread 2.
Alhena From Netherlands, joined Jun 2009, 57 posts, RR: 0 Reply 24, posted (2 years 11 months 1 week 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 55959 times:
Quoting Pihero (Reply 9): We opened the South Atlantic route for the Europeans with the Germans
You mean the Dornier flights between Dakar and Recife for the Condor Syndicat? That was the first intercontinental line in history. Service was Hamburg-Buenos Aires, mainly post. IIRC they also discovered the 'ground effect' by flying close to the water during the atlantic crossing.
25 SSTsomeday: I think what's important to remember is how catastrophes such as AF447 often/usually are the result of an accumulative number of separate factors tha
26 Gonzalo: Giopan, please take a deep breath and think about this : You are welcome into the forum, as you know, this is an open forum. Now, in many previous th
27 AVLNative: Found this tidbit in the news http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/brazil_plane PARIS – Air France has finished replacing air speed monitors on all its long-h
28 Soon7x7: I studied the location of the lugs on the AA587 fin vs the airframe structure still attatched to the AF fin. This assembly is like a monocoque struct
29 Khobar: The tails are attached to the fuselage by 6 main attach fittings and 3 transverse load fittings. "The vertical stabilizer has nine attach fittings to
30 ULMFlyer: Are you serious?? Or, as Seth Meyers would say: Really?? We're not speculating here about brain surgery or why Hossa choked and the Penguins are Stan
31 WingedMigrator: You lost me there... I agree about large forces, but the logical leap to "inflite event" is quite obscure.
32 ComeAndGo: Right, and in the grander scheme both Soon7x7 and Kobar point to a VS failure due to an out of control dive rather than an over stressed rudder force
33 Speedbird128: Strategic Lateral Offsets are slightly different to avoiding weather 30 or 60 or whatever miles offtrack... SLO's are agreed, and aren't normally mor
34 Jbernie: I was touching on something back in thread 14 regarding how the fin could separate in the way that it was found. AF A332 Crash (F-GZCP) Part 14 (by M
35 Mandala499: And that sir, is a good answer to those asking "why didn't they just deviate?" Letting people know you're deviating from your path is wise, but then,
36 Speedbird128: Indeed, and extreme CB and associated TS activity isn't really the best thing about to enhance HF communications. I would like to know, what sort of
37 CHRISBA777ER: Soon7x7 is merely pushing his anti-Airbus agenda - he's been pushing it since he did a project on AA587 - obsessed with trying to prove that Airbuses
38 ThirtyEcho: Thank God, this Tower of Babel is running out of bricks. The Moderators did a great job of reining in all this gobbledegook. Now, we can wait for the
39 Mandala499: Negative, it was BTH/WIDD - JED... I think it was a -300, it was OY-VKH. Well, shove every passenger plane on a high-load sideslip for a long time, a
40 JOEYCAPPS: After reading through this, I've kinda gathered that a lot of people aren't grabbing the concept of CB. Now, I want someone (With credible experience)
41 Pihero: I received this e-mail from a friend : " There are those of us, some silent and others not, who are very interested customers (SLF) following the news
42 CHRISBA777ER: Exactly. When you push a design well past its design limits then what did you think was going to happen exactly? AA587's rudder failed beyond design
43 Pihero: Sort of... The translation of the preliminary weather study by the BEA is now available. It gives a very good idea of what the ITCZ is, the build-up
44 Ciaran: Debate over jurisdiction issues "Air France complained in a letter to Brazil’s bar association about lawyers soliciting victims’ families at a hot
45 757GB: I guess I should have made it clear that I wasn't referring to posts like yours or Mandala499's for example. We certainly appreciate the professional
46 David L: Exactly what many of us have been trying to say for ages. I don't understand how that can be interpreted to mean the crew were definitely blameless.
47 Mandala499: I've just spent the afternoon breaks reading the stuff on aviation weather (as it is a huge subject), what I read happened to be an aeronautical info
48 Flood: Not to mention certain people would immediately have suggested you lost control because your car's fragile carbon fibre rear spoiler snapped off.
49 Trystero: I guess if a plane crashes into a nuclear power plant you would the perfect man for the investigation...
50 Tietkej: And, if I may add, further blame will be attributed to the company servicing your car because they failed to replace your speedometer.[Edited 2009-06
51 David L: Even if the replacement had been ordered a couple of months earlier and was on its way.
52 JBirdAV8r: Also terrain (water) impact is fairly effective at pushing components beyond design limits. As both a pilot AND an engineer I'm not buying the case b
53 BOACVC10: Eh, If this was an aviation industry issue (as an example, road=airway for this example) I thought the road transportation company that designed and
54 RFields5421: Thanks for all you posts. I get the feeling that some folks on this thread expect pilots to be full-time weather forecasters working the weather rada
55 Desediez: Going back to the recovered spoiler... I checked the AMM and the IPC of the A340 and A330. As already assumed, this is definitely a so called "Spoiler
56 FCA767: That blame culture is wrong though...because at the end of the day...a road is built for convenience...they didn't need to build a road for you... It
57 Mandala499: I wonder if I should put together all of the useful information I and a few others have posted into a systematic description of what the facts and qua
58 AVLNative: I personally would find it a good checkpoint while we're waiting for more facts.
59 474218: Anyone that has experience with fracture dynamics should be able to determine if the vertical stabilizer failed while the aircraft was in flight of u
60 NNomad: Some of us really appreciate a lot of what you do here.......(im not sure if thats much of a help tho.. ) A.
61 David L: Wait, you're asking if we want you to do lots more work to make things much easier for us? Hmm... tough question. Seriously, though, I think those wh
62 Burkhard: As tiny peces of facts still come together, I wouldn't write a summary yet. We have to wait, while hundreds of sailors out there operate under risk to
63 Trystero: 707's? are you mad? back to connie's, man, back to connie's!!! But we would appreciate.
64 Mandala499: Well, it can be revised with subsequent discoveries... If someone could catalogue these kinds of causes people have mentioned in the topics so far, I
65 RFields5421: I assume you mean the large rectangular hole on the bottom. That would be an expected failure if the air hit the spoiler backward, from the bottom. E
66 CasInterest: Mandala499, I really would like to see your current view of things, and how you think the Pitot tubes are, or are not, the issue. the following artic
67 Carls: Hi Soon 7x7, with all due respect can I ask you if in this FAA seminar they spoke about the 787 CFPR future issues or they just spoke about ALL the i
68 CasInterest: Here are some possible replies to those conspiracies. That is just statistics. Heck look what happened to Sully.... of course that was geese..... A lo
69 Giopan1975: Seems like very good timing to do so. For us spectators official investigation seems to be "stalling" since flow of info is now very contained. Very
70 Movingtin: And who is going to decide which posts are "qualifiable opinion". It has been shown on A-Net many times that anyone who deviates from the "respected
71 Comorin: Interesting article on the search for the DDR/CVR on Bloomberg. It talks about the ships deployed and some background on search methods and conditions
72 Mandala499: I think so too. Your queries as to weather, no matter how I, or some other, think it's a good or ridiculous point to raise, is shared by many... no m
73 Soon7x7: Nothing specific about aircraft manufacturers, types or AF447 and or AA587 events. It was general discussion of why flight schools were selecting con
74 BA84: Public message to Mandala and Pihero: I wanted you both to know how much we all appreciate your professional interpretations and insights. It has been
75 COEWR787: Mandala, I think it would be nice to get an update on the overall status of facts, and reasonably admissible conjectures based on them. I immensely a
76 Gonzalo: I'm pretty sure : The VAST MAJORITY of us will be happy if you do. I'm pretty sure the Forum Moderators are taking care of this kind of "contribution
77 Spacecadet: I wouldn't call them "conspiracies", but at least your replies are balanced. I try not to subscribe to any of these knee-jerk theories but the fact i
78 Pihero: There is something called the "Montreal convention", part of which is written on your ticket, as mandatory requirement by the ICAO. Carrier liability
79 Mandala499: The rise in temp in this case, may have been a sign of the icing that was happening, which seems to have caused the probes to be iced over (excessive
80 YYZYYT: Which is in turn the reason why I and others like me still read this thread. Thank you! I confess I was disappointed that there was no recap from you
81 Pihero: For the conspiracists and those with a more level head , given raw without any comment (so far) from me. But more later on this subject ! EASA Safety
82 David L: Exactly. Where is the evidence that modern airliners are less safe than older designs, or even equally "unsafe"? This is an example of how things get
83 Famfflores: Some new information published by Veja Magazine. I only have the printed version here but I´ll try to get a digital one. Veja got updated information
84 474218: Again you have to look at the fracture faces to see how the actuator attachment failed. If it was fast fracture then I could agree at something over
85 KingFriday013: I thought the previous reports said that bodies had no clothes on and numerous fractures.... #1 is new to me and #4 is known. Just wondering.... -J.
86 FCA767: I hope they are right about being unconsious to not feel any pain from knowing about what was about to happen... but the pink teeth part, i just did
87 Pihero: Alas, another theory that has been shot by forensic medecine : Pink teeth have been frequently observed on bodies that have stayed in sea water for s
88 Famfflores: I can post what´s published in here, but all is in portuguese. I hope you will understand it Below you will find the link to the magazine and a box
89 Famfflores: Thanks for the info. I can only hope they lost conscious in the early stage of this accident.
92 BuyantUkhaa: That would be very helpful! I totally subscribe to that. Thank you for sharing your knowledge and experience with us.
93 Khobar: WARNING: GRAPHIC IMAGES (scroll down less than 1/2 way) http://plane-truth.com/Aoude/geocities/crashpic.html This is what you can expect from a break
94 Desh: Please do - they have been very helpful. you have already established value by your prior summaries so I think you are safe .... ditto
95 Pihero: AF 447. A Summary An Air France Airbus A330-200 registered as FGHCP took off from Rio de Janeiro – GIG – for Paris – CDG – at 22.03Z, on May 3
96 KingFriday013: Thank you! I think it would be a great idea if something like this was posted in the start of every thread; would be REALLY helpful to us laypeople w
97 Khobar: Perhaps it would be better to say "Most documents, published by Airbus Industrie or the BEA or the EASA seem to suggest that at least the loss of aer
98 Zeke: Just like to add my to this paragraph Pilots do not have access to a lot of the information that has been published relating to the enroute Wx p
99 Pihero: ... Corrected. You are of course right. Thanks
100 Pihero: Thanks, Zeke. Correct. Some airlines provide their long haul flights with an update, via their dispatch service, during the flight, either via SatCom
102 Sniffmom: They found another body today, quite some distance from where the others were located. I tried to import the map, but I think a bug in the image syste
103 Trystero: Thank you again. Although today is only the 17th, I believe Pihero and Mandala499 could be elected a.netters of the month. (kind of employee of the m
104 Gonzalo: I know the following is not the summary we are all expecting ( ), but I think could be of interest anyway. The FAB ( Stands for Força Aerea Bras
105 Comorin: I would just like to point out that a flat area of 19,000 sq km, like on the sea surface, could be ten times that undersea in 3D (hilly) terrain. If
106 Micstatic: Why would these not be made public? Why would they only release some of the messages? Apologize if discussed before. Huge thread.
107 RFields5421: To my knowledge, none of the actual messages have been released. There have been leaks of some messages, and statements by Air France about what was
108 747MegaTop: Mandala, The fligthpaths shown in your post...the one going just below India's southern tip..what is the origin and destination? It seems to be for a
109 Zeke: Incorrect most have. The messages have a timestamp, ATA number, and the reporting component. For someone who is used to working on the aircraft, they
110 JOEYCAPPS: And such is born, pilot error. I'm from the Northeast, and after coming out to California, I witnessed a "snowstorm" last December, in which cars wer
111 Mandala499: I have been spending yesterday and today reading the weather parts from some publication... whilst trying not to forget my real life work... I've been
112 FCA767: That's not me being quoted when it says my username
113 Pihero: On another site, there is the transcript of an AI OIT. Some parts give some precisions on the ACARS messages and one reason why the "unreliable airspe
114 David L: More specifically, such is born "pilot error, in spite of the fact that they did pretty much the same as 20 other pilots who will remain blameless be
115 Mandala499: Gonna have to dig more QRH versions... * = Present in AF447 + = Present in other airlines as ECAM messages. On some QRH, NAV ADR DISAGREE points stra
116 Pihero: from the documents in my possession, it appears when -1/- One ADR has already been voted off by the other two, followed by -2/- A discrepancy between
117 Tietkej: This is very interesting. Pihero, if all three pitots did 'fail', say through icing, if we ignored the error messages for a moment, what would the sta
118 Pihero: You're a bit ahead of us, but I can answer part of that aspect : -1/- The first priority being the trajectory of the airplane, an "Unreliable IAS" pr
119 ADiZzy: Have the Black Boxes been recovered yet? Anymore of the plane been found?
120 Ciaran: Article in Reuters "PARIS (Reuters) - France's chief air disaster investigator said on Wednesday he was unhappy that a French pathologist had not been
121 Tietkej: Thank you, Pihero. That makes sense. One question: would AUTO THRUST OFF be transmitted via ACARS if the pilots disengage autothrottles in the cockpi
122 Pihero: But there's a good way to diengage them, accepted by the systems as being normal, and there are bad ways, leading to an ECAM /ACARS (???) message. !
123 Giopan1975: So if the speed indicator failure scenario is right, there should have been a time interval, maybe starting even before 2:00, maybe lasting for secon
124 Desediez: No! Finding them, would be the best what could happen....
125 Pihero: 1/- Not an AF pilot, but "a former pilot" 2/- Typical blank statement with no research value, by a guy wanting some media recognition Pity...
126 Tietkej: Thanks for the clarification, Pihero. As always, much appreciated! I'll try and be patient now .[Edited 2009-06-17 06:47:10]
127 Pihero: Look, in that sentence, you made three assumptions 1/- the faulty indication had a long duration time lag. 2/-There was severe turbulence 3/-The crew
128 Mandala499: Just a little explanation on the difficulties faced on picking up these Pings from the Blackboxes... Excerpts from the Adam Air 574 final report: On t
129 Mandala499: With all due respect to the Captain in question, he is a former BA pilot flying the 747s (744s)... Whether he has any experience on the Airbus is not
130 Alhena: I don't understand the message about TCAS (3443005). Could this be unrelated to the the problems/events that led to the crash? As far as I was able t
131 Alhena: Seems to be some miscommunication. According to this report http://www.estadao.com.br/noticias/g...ias-de-acidente-aereo,388701,0.htm 4 french invest
132 SLCPilot: I am not an engineer, but just looking at the damage of the vertical stab suggests (to me) it was lost in flight. I would infer colliding with the sur
133 Pihero: This TCAS fault is the result of ADR 1,2,3 faults. The system rejected all three ADRs ( for faulty total pressure data)...their elimination took away
134 Alhena: OK. Thank you for the explanation. I'm learning a lot here. Not in the least to be very careful in reasoning (see obvious errors in my posts, even th
135 Pihero: I tend to agree with you, for the only other explanation i'd have of the boken rudder / fin base and the seemingly "aftward" motion of the breakage w
136 Pihero: Thank you. Some posts from the posters of this thread have made me re-think quite a lot of my initial assumptions. I'm just a professional pilot who'
137 Giopan1975: For a captain to think it is important to communicate to someone (to his base in Paris rather than struggling on HF, which could also reveal some deg
138 Giopan1975: But again as Pihero wrote a lot of posts ago they probably send the "forte turb" message because they were needing an updated weather report, which ma
139 Sniffmom: Look at the huge piece of debris found here. What is that? A galley? http://s635.photobucket.com/albums/uu79/DorianBanks/?newest=1
140 Spacecadet: You're assuming the airplane itself would be moving forward and upright, which is not a valid assumption to make. I think you and others are right th
141 SSTsomeday: As usual, a very informative and authoritative post from Zeke. However, it makes me thing there is a lot of room for improvement with regard to up-to-
142 Mandala499: We all are... including me! I think Pihero would be better to answer this... but here's my take... Formal definitions of turbulence levels (ICAO): Li
143 Desediez: " target=_blank>http://s635.photobucket.com/albums/u...est=1 Yes, not a complete one, but just a very big piece. Maybe someone can identify to which
144 Mandala499: Front L/R1 or L/R2 center galley is my guess. Then there's a bulkhead with CIDS on it. L2 area?[Edited 2009-06-17 10:34:03]
145 Meristem: Re: French pathologists in Brazil: The organization responsible for pathology exams after death is the Instituto de Medicina Legal (Medico-legal Insti
146 Pihero: It's " Sévère turbulence", the bloody English have got it backward again ! (Must be a conspiracy against French Culture) Jokes aside, one shouldn't
147 TUNisia: Anyone else seeing an in-flight breakup as more likely now that these pictures have surfaced? Amazing to see such large pieces largely intact (esp. t
148 Alhena: Pics come from the brazilian navy site: https://www.mar.mil.br/menu_h/hot_site_air_bus/index.html There's some pics of close-ups of the spoiler not p
149 Type-Rated: I just heard on the local news that the autopsies on the recovered victims have been completed. According to sources close to the investigation it doe
150 AirbusA370: You mean this? http://s635.photobucket.com/albums/u...tion=view¤t=fox.jpg&newest=1 This is not CIDS. CIDS has no circular connector...
151 474218: I tend to agree. Seeing that the pictures of the vertical stabilizer/rudder and galley show so little impact damage. One then has to assume they cont
152 StasisLAX: The Associated Press is reporting the following via the MSNBC News website: "Bodies recovered in the Air France disaster show multiple fractures in th
153 Goooooaaal: One of the many possibilities that I believe cannot be ruled out, but one that I have not seen mentioned, is an instantaneous, total failure of the wi
154 LTC8K6: Strange to see the pieces like that. Brings it home to you... http://i635.photobucket.com/albums/u.../DorianBanks/echo.jpg?t=1245264913
155 Mandala499: Since discussions on the inflight break-up has began, let me take excerpts from what has been prepared so far... still draft language... so excuse the
156 RFields5421: The investigative agency usually does not have physical access to touch the bodies until they are released by the local government medical authoritie
157 Mandala499: Bear in mind that the bodies found so far are bodies that MAY have been thrown clear of the aircraft during the airframe breakout. How many bodies ha
159 757GB: You bring up another important point. It's going to take a while to know which seats correspond to the bodies found. The pattern there might help pro
161 Alhena: Thank you again for your very interesting post. I'm somewhat confused about the stall warning thing. From the Air Caraïbes incident It seemed they g
162 Khobar: In-flight breakup is almost assured to have happened, given the evidence. Nothing is impossible, but there are a few possibilities. 1) The aircraft b
163 StasisLAX: "The mountainous ocean floor in the search area ranges from 3,280 to 15,091 feet, BEA officials said, making the search for the recorders -- and the r
164 MaxJack: Why not train dolphins to locate FDR´s and CVR´s...?
166 Pihero: Don't forget the conjunction of an over speed. Your question is valid, and I'd tend to say"there was no better course of action, with the elements at
167 Mandala499: At this stage, we don't know whether any false stall warnings got them to pitch down or not. As I said, it is still very speculative. The question on
170 Desh: Am no expert here - but isnt that theory supported by the inner spoiler damage noted in someones earlier post ? Even if the aircraft was overspeeding
171 Trystero: MMo/VMo - maximum operational velocity? Mne/Vne - velocity not to be exceed? Sorry, no to good with acronyms...
172 Mandala499: Read the speculative theory at reply #155. Here's a speculative elaboration... The engines would continue running or just fail. Upon failure, it woul
173 Alhena: Thanx. That was the point I was missing. Indeed. Every time I think I have something of a picture I realize how difficult it is to fit in every piece
174 757GB: Long article, interesting reading: Air France crash investigators 'closer to solving cause of disaster' http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...us_and_
175 Spacecadet: No disrespect to these "sources close to the investigation" (which means... what? An investigator's roommate?), but multiple fractures are generally
176 Guillermo: When in 1997 happened the DC-9-32 accident in Uruguay, I was living in Argentina. The airline was an Argentine one, and the flight went over Uruguay's
177 Sniffmom: Not to be off-topic, just to correct the information. 520 lost their lives. There were four surviors, all female. One off-duty FA jammed between seat
178 Comorin: I know this is a complex accident scenario, but I'd like to ask a simple question of the Gods Is it possible that AF447 flew into turbulence that was
179 DRAIGONAIR: Not all, 4 people survived the crash.
180 757GB: It was just amazing how little was left of that airplane. Rescue personnel who arrived at the scene simply could not believe they were in the right p
181 Pihero: "Full on" is a bit of a misnomer. The aircraft brushed the hillside, at a very low speed. The deceleration forces were - relatively speaking - on the
182 LuisKMIA: As the investigation goes on, the media is once again asking if there is too much automation in modern aircraft: http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion.
183 Pihero: Snap doesn't seem to be the right word. Ripped would be more appropriate. Let me say it again : everything happening after 0214Z is speculation, of w
184 StasisLAX: More sad, disturbing, and frankly gruesome news on AF447 victims's forensic exams from an article on the Huffington Post website: "Autopsies have reve
185 Mandala499: The thing is, the DC-9 didn't have a CMC that interlined with ACARS that would send a blocked toilet or a minor glitch back to MX center... The thing
186 ZANL188: Curious that a galley would come down this intact...
187 Zeke: Do not need all 3 to go before ALT LAW, all you need is ADRs to disagree. Yes it would, but so could a single failure, e.g. if pitot 1 was blocked, w
188 Comorin: Thank you! I very much appreciate your posts... From what I glean so far, the simplistic view would be that the AF447 flew into weather, instruments
189 Pihero: I don't quite understand you. You call for scientific method but you are comparing two different accidents which seem to have only one common aspect
190 Jbernie: I am interested but not necessarily shocked by this. A lot of factors will come into play, the first is where exactly on the aircraft this galley was
191 Mandala499: I need to go back to the data again, what is known is that in the end, we have a failure associated to ADRs 1,2 and 3... but whether 3 of them occure
193 StasisLAX: More evidence of a probable in-flight structural failure?
194 Tietkej: Thanks, Zeke, for your explanations and your practical insight. I can't remember learning so many things after joining a forum. I do think this inves
195 Mandala499: You and me are suffering from reading the FCOMs too much! TCAS depends on inputs from ADIRU 1 for Attitude & Heading... ATC1 requires altitude from A
196 Bravo1six: Perhaps the lawyer was misquoted, but "primary liability" essentially means that the person in question is directly liable for the consequences of hi
197 ComeAndGo: Here's your scenario: according to previous posts the passengers were found to have "pink teeth" associated with sudden decompression. Decompression
198 BOACVC10: One thing I would like to point out with respect to the large galley piece, there didn't seem to be any evidence of damage due to "pancake" or "shear
199 Osiris30: With due respect; flying commercially shouldn't be 'fun'. Enjoyable sure, but a pilot of a commercial flight should have no interest in 'fun'. Get pe
200 RFields5421: I has the misfortune of hearing this happen live as part of a USN Search Team in the air when the plane went down and the wreckage was spotted less t
201 CB97: Most if not all galleys will have a numbering system to identify each individual space for trolleys and containers, usually either a metal tag rivete
202 Halophila: What is surprising to me about the galley shots is that those 'containers' are still latched in their respective holders (except for that one, which e
203 Zeke: Just my observation, part of the seat track (and the seat track has sheared off from the floor beam it is attached to) is still attached on one side,
204 Gonzalo: That phenomena has been observed in bodies submerged for large periods. Doesn't proove anything. The forensic reports states hip fractures, multiple
205 Aussiebrat: Hi Halophila, There not exactly anything else preventing the atlasboxes/standard unit boxes/galley boxes (different names depending on which part of
206 Pihero: No, As it doesn't appear in the first pictures but only after the diver had reached it, I'd assume the diver pulled one of the containers out...not p
207 Giopan1975: Allow me a question - again no intention at all to imply anything about pilots performance. Are ocean crossings that ordinary and just a part of a ro
208 Mandala499: I suggest you look at human factors and fatigue effects. It is a fact that night long haul flights are popular, and if done correctly can give better
209 Pihero: The BEA site has now published the latest press report, dated 17/06/09. Of a particular interest are the "Sea search Operations" hyperlinks leading to
210 Pihero: For someone who asked not very long ago that profesionals should talk like professionals, you really, but really, should look into the definitions of
211 GlenP: Ooo! Very bad voice procedure there Seriously, thanks for the link to the BEA site & the ongoing technical/operational insights from yourself, Mandal
212 Guillermo: Pihero, I am fully aware that these are two different accidents, thanx; and it has nothing to do with the scientific method. I really appreciate too
213 David L: It seems a bit pointless at this time to try to guess what the crew actions were when we don't know exactly what they were dealing with. Out of curio
214 Jerblaine: MSNBC just reported that the autopsies reported fractures on the arms and legs of the bodies indicating a break up in the air. so would that mean they
215 Scouseflyer: Not quite a wall at 550 mph but even a wall at 100mph is going to make a massive mess of a soft human - think about sticking your head out of the car
216 Giopan1975: Got what you mean. Ok Pihero, I apologise I got out off line....sometimes I get carried away with writing, English is not my native language...I
217 Trystero: Every accident does so, at least for a week or two. Come on, there's a lot of bad media pressure on this, but even that is fading away. There aren't
218 Giopan1975: Parodically and sentimentally speaking, this accident was quite a big shock....it will surely fade away but will be remembered at the same degree as
219 Pliersinsight: Unless you want to make the piece a few pounds lighter for hauling it up on the ship.
220 ThrottleHold: The A/T button on the FCU panel should bever be used for disconnecting the autothrust. It is always disconnected by pressing the Instinctive Disconne
221 474218: Galley units are assembled inside the fuselage. There are no doors large enough to fit an assembled galley.
222 Movingtin: So you are saying there have never been human factor or CRM breakdowns in the cockpit? Do we really need to list all the accidents and incidents whic
223 David L: Yes, but by the same token, we don't know how this crew reacted and we don't know what they had to react to. I was just at the supermarket check-out
224 FlyNinestein: Two days ago I flew on a Northwest A319 from Detroit to Memphs. About 20 minutes from Memphis there was a line of storms. The captain told us not to b
225 BA84: Interesting post from PPRUNE forum, regarding A330 simulator: The following information that is posted in this reply is something that may interest yo
226 757GB: Thank you for sharing. I believe many people here have that scenario in mind. I don´t know if it would explain everything about the crash - experts
227 Comorin: Interesting article on Bloomberg today that talks about 'Eye in the Sky' and other next generation approaches to provide pilots with more information
228 JBirdAV8r: Put yourself in Pihero's shoes. You're trying to fold in what little knowledge you have gleaned regarding this accident with an EXTREMELY complex cir
229 Giopan1975: I greatly respect their contribution and I believe the forum would have been much poorer without them. I am also learning a lot out of their posts. I
230 Pihero: Yeah ! I suppose I feel obligated to defend my colleagues (whatever their nationalities, btw ) against someone with a gripe and an agenda. Sorry, tha
231 Giopan1975: Appreciate it. Once again there are no agentas. Sorry, no way to prove it!
232 Carls: The correct translation should be "Strong Turbulence", Forte means Strong, and the word Turbulence is the same. Just as a contribution, because quite
233 Giopan1975: I believe all of this that you are describing are true for AF and all of the other big boys. That is why AF447 event has left everybody in some state
234 David L: I did suggest deletion of that post, to no avail, since it's another example of someone's words being twisted. If you want to score points by picking
235 Zeke: Which could be linked back again to an air data problem, as the cabin pressure controller (CPC) needs to know the aircraft's altitude. One can simply
236 David L: And that's good reason to blame the crew of AF447... how? We all know that a significant number of accidents feature some degree of human error, eith
237 COEWR787: And what relevance does that have to AF447? After you keep repeatedly posting such material one does have difficulty believing your claim that you do
238 Carls: I have no doubt that Pihero understand the French, I also have noticed that you do not differentiate French from Portuguese I speak Spanish and Portu
240 Giopan1975: I agree with that statement. I have been posting, speculating, questioning pilot performance and weather factors. I felt I could have a go (ridiculou
241 Carls: I do not know if the word Forte means the same in French, but in Spanish and Portuguese the word Forte means Strong. So I thought that the proper tra
242 757GB: The folks at Air France can speak for themselves in their own defense. So can the people at Airbus. The pilots however do not have that possibility, s
243 David L: Then we are agreed that "forte turbulence" means "strong turbulence" in either language. The point Pihero was making, I think, (and the point I made
244 Mandala499: OK, that'll bring the "LACRS": position to 0210, that means the original speed counts... but I ll do a recalc... I'm relieved that you understand the
245 Carls: I didn't catch the point , therefore I made the translation thinking that I could help with it. Clear enough!!
246 Khobar: We did the same coming into National way back in '78 on an old Eastern DC-9. Zig-zagged around some storms but eventually had to go into the soup. Th
247 Zeke: The only common aspect of most accidents is that they are a result of a combination of factors, humans, aircraft, ground equipment, ATC, weather, I k
248 David L: Nobody is saying the crew did not make any mistakes. All anybody is asking that "blame" be withheld until we at least know something about what happe
249 Spacecadet: Well, not to inject myself into this debate or take sides in it, but it is a bit of an oxymoron to say they died taking passengers from point A to po
250 KSANcoFlyer: I don't see an oxymoron in there anywhere. Maybe irony bit that's it.
251 Mandala499: If knowing what they're talking about means licensed... subtract Mandala499 and add Zeke ! Re-read what I wrote: they died in performance of their du
252 Trystero: Forte Turbulence in Portuguese is "Turbulência Forte" or "Forte Turbulência". You can say it both ways. In Spanish could be something like "Fuerte
253 Comorin: Sure hope they find the black boxes before we discuss what "forte' is in Cantonese. Question: Did AF 447 have an integrated CVR/FDR i.e. a one-piece b
255 UPSMD11: So, what is the status of finding the FDR/CVR? Have the boats and submarines gotten any pings at all? Have any of the major pieces of the aircraft bee
256 Guillermo: Thanks, Mandala499, I am totally agree with you. I know very well how complex could be this kind of investigation. That's why I can hardly welcome wi
257 Giopan1975: I dont think there is any relevance or any will ever be (Aeroflot-Nord and AF447). I brought this example as an argument to Pihero's that airliners'
258 IAirAllie: Funniest comment on the whole thread!! PS it's "tugev" in Estonian.
259 Pihero: Please let's cool things down a bit... Sometimes I feel like I'm in Speakers' Corner, perilously standing on my flimsy stepladder and addressing a cro
260 Gonzalo: Excellent post Pihero, thanks, I really really enjoy it. Saludos. G.
261 Mandala499: OK Pihero, I'm still blaming your posts in the Congonhas crash which got me to start reading about the Airbus. I must say, that in my part of the wor
262 Tietkej: Pihero and Mandala499, you two have been the guts and the glory of this thread from the beginning on. While I have always had a 'crush' on airplanes I
263 FrmrCAPCADET: OK, after this teaser give us a link. Google has very little to say about low level jet stream. Found your posts enlightening. I would just add that
264 Tietkej: Pihero, are you referring to the Easterly Monsoon winds carried over from the Arabian Sea to the Indian mainland?
265 ULMFlyer: This is exactly how I feel. Even though the tin cans I've flown and probably will fly for the rest of my life would likely fit inside a GE90. But in
266 FlyingSicilian: What are the details on this:? http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worl...oating-intact-middle-Atlantic.html In this story with pics of a found galley fro
267 AF Cabin Crew: Having worked on the 340 exclusively for 2 years and I know the Airbus long-haul fleet is the same for the galley I can tell you that this looks a lo
268 Weizenjaeger: I have lurked here, on and off, for a few years. I have now joined just to make this post. I know nothing about aviation. But I do know about computer
269 VS11: I work with software myself and I was just thinking the same but it seems the more likely scenario is that the data (speed) feeds into the software w
270 Canoecarrier: As far as I know meal/snack containers are held in place by what you have said, a latch. The fact that they are still intact does not surprise me, th
271 Comorin: Welcome to the forum, Weizenheimer. There have been a few articles today that discuss software bugs. Her's one: The Times say "Computer bugs main susp
272 Halophila: Many thanks to you and everyone else for their replies. So very sad all this! Having been very close to the debris field some years ago, I can only i
273 ThirtyEcho: Why don't we all just shut up until the official findings are released? There are over 4250 posts on this topic and we are not one inch closer to caus
274 TUNisia: It's human nature to be curious and share thoughts. There are a lot of posters here who are much more knowledgeable than I am and it's enlightening t
275 Canoecarrier: I'd argue that 1/2 of the posts were in the nature of "I just woke up, have they found the CVR/FDR?" Subtract those posts, there has been a very info
276 Alhena: According to FAB http://www.fab.mil.br/portal/capa/index.php?mostra=3237 a spanish airforce fokker F-27 has joined the search efforts since yesterday,
277 Gonzalo: The answer to your question : Who is pointing you with a gun ? Don't like this ? Just GO AWAY !!! Hi, and Welcome !!! I can tell you with certainty t
279 Astuteman: I'm (most definitely) not a software engineer. The only exposure I've had to control system software was funnily enough this month, where my company'
280 Giopan1975: Great post Pihero, coming from a real man and captain and truly touching. I know I have been a nuisance and quite irritating, especially to you, with
281 HAWK21M: Amazing how some Arm chair smarties seem to know everything about an Aircraft & are willing to teach the Professionals about it regds MEL.
282 Burkhard: The biggest benefit I see from such a public discussion is that it makes it at least harder, if not even impossible, to fake the official results. Ai
283 Jetfuel: or at least stick to a presentation of facts and cease guessing
284 FCA767: Thanks pihero for your work aswell as mandala's Recently I've felt the same...I was on an A340 AF 1 month before, crossing the atlantic...And it was
285 Ellehammer09: So true I think a lot is done to keep people from "guessing". Sticking to the facts - thanks to a group of enthusiastic members - topics are been "re
286 Pihero: Thank you all for your kind words. They are really appreciated. A post proved one of the points we made about everybody being needed : Merci infinimen
287 David L: I saw that article yesterday - it's all over the place. The headline says one thing, the body mentions a few others (which have nothing to do with th
288 Mandala499: This reply is of 2 parts: CABIN & WEATHER. Both contain speculative analysis, you are hereby FOREWARNED! 1. CABIN Yes, after looking up at Seat Guru,
289 Zeke: Thanks for that, I must admit I do not know the ins and outs of our galleys properly, let alone the AF ones. I could only tell from the lack of chill
290 Wexfordflyer: That really is quite poignant. At times in the guessing what has happened it is easy to forget that some 228 people (probably) had quite a traumatic
291 Goooooaaal: Much has been made of the definition of "forte turbulence". My question is how common is it for the flight crew to communicate to base that they are
292 JONukl: I have been working on nuclear safety related issues for much of my life. When comparing our requirements on safety related systems with that of the
293 SeeTheWorld: This is the most ridiculous post out of all 4250 of them. I have learned so much from all 17 threads, and I believe that we have narrowed down the po
294 A388: I just received an email with photos that were said to be taken with a camera that was found as part of debris of this flight. I have my doubts about
295 Golftango: This appears to be the last know photo of F-GZCP, most likely operating as AF444 from CDG to GIG on May 31st. Very disheartening. http://www.planepict
296 Mandala499: Does it show oxygen masks deployed, aircraft in a dive and the rear airframe already separating away? If so, it's fake.
297 Golftango: I would think that a digital camera would have sunk to the depths below. Definitely fake.
298 A388: Yes it's the photos showing the oxygen masks, but having looked at those photos several times now, the tail section that is supposed to have been bro
299 Wexfordflyer: My guess is fake. Purely because I think it highly unlikely that photos would have been retrieved from the camera (one possibility is water damage or
300 A388: I totally agree with you. Case dismissed! A388
301 Pihero: If identified, we are interested, Zeke. What we have identified so far from the cabin : -the front bulkhead ant its twin jumps -The Doctor's kit -The
302 Sniffmom: On the fake photos: There have been reports in Norwegian media that fakers have used video and stills from the TV-series Lost, which are readily avail
303 Moderators: And part 18 is running here: AF A332 Crash (F-GZCP) - Part 18 (by Moderators Jun 19 2009 in Civil Aviation) Thread will be locked
Sponsor Message: 
From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 427 posts, 
From Australia, joined Jan 2005, 1981 posts, 
From Indonesia, joined Aug 2001, 5880 posts, 
It was damn bumpy, not a lot if deviations were required... and the OCNL CB parts was solid white on the Infra Red weather satellite pic... and everyone prayed during the flight (it was a Hajj flight), and the plane traversed through the bad weather later on the way back... and again and again... everyday throughout the Hajj season during the monsoon.
From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2006, 1677 posts, 
From Uruguay, joined Feb 2009, 532 posts, 
It seems like whenever a new fact, fragment of debris or piece of information comes out, we're not taking things at face value, instead reading too much into them. Information is coming so slowly, and we're understandably anxious. This is not what people like to hear but we don't know much, and will not know a whole lot for a while apparently.
From Greece, joined Jun 2009, 238 posts, 
From France, joined Jan 2005, 3009 posts, 
From Germany, joined Jun 2009, 71 posts, 
From Andorra, joined Jun 2009, 1748 posts, 
From Chile, joined Aug 2005, 818 posts, 
From Portugal, joined Oct 2008, 242 posts, 
Give us a break - there is no Giopan ghost hunting AF. You already have enough problems.
From Netherlands, joined Jun 2009, 57 posts, 
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