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GP7200- Expectations For 1500 Engines  
User currently offlineLumberton From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 4708 posts, RR: 20
Posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 8 hours ago) and read 4148 times:

Very interesting article from Aviation Week. The Engine Alliance partnership seems confident that Asia will drive the long term demand for the A380 and that they will sell 1500 engines. Airbus also confirms that the GP7200 has a 1% SFC over the Trent 900.

Is there another source to confirm this?

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/gener...20Well%20For%20GP7200&channel=comm

Quote:
Although a mere 20 engines are now in service on just five operational GP7200-powered A380s with Emirates, the Alliance is already invoking a continuous upgrade program to sustain its claimed lead over the competition. "We've seen some places where we could improve, and we have another 1%-2% we can slowly put into the engine over the next few years, says Moravecek. "The Engine Alliance intends to sustain the 1% advantage. That's significant because, in reality, it means Rolls-Royce is coming from behind every time." The next operators to introduce the GP7200-powered A380 into service will be Air France later this year and Korean Air Lines at the end of 2010.




"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
20 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineTrex8 From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 4494 posts, RR: 14
Reply 1, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 8 hours ago) and read 4122 times:
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guess the A380 isn't dead by a long shot then!

User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 29689 posts, RR: 84
Reply 2, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 7 hours ago) and read 4095 times:
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Quoting Lumberton (Thread starter):
Is there another source to confirm this?

Well the Trent 1000 is currently worse than the GEnx in terms of SFC, and it draws on the Trent 800 (as I expect the GEnx draws on the GP7000), so that might be "hearsay evidence".

1500 engines would be 375 A380s, but one would imagine that part of that total is spares. Still, I don't believe it is beyond the realm of possibility that Engine Alliance could power upwards of 300 frames and 300 spares (one per frame) - especially if the GP7000 can be adapted to larger and heavier A380 family members (which I see no reason why they could not).


User currently offlinePrebennorholm From Denmark, joined Mar 2000, 6291 posts, RR: 54
Reply 3, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 6 hours ago) and read 4048 times:

With all the hype about "the new engine generation", GEnx, Trent 1000 and Trent XWB I would imagine that both GP7000 and Trent 900 would rather soon come to the end of the road.

Maybe it is so that the present day A380 engines actually match the economic performance figures of the new "next generation engines" from GE and RR ??? At least in their bleeded versions, GEnx-2B and Trent XWB.

If that isn't the case, then it is hard to imagine that Airbus hasn't already got years old plans to strap versions of the new engines under the A380 wing at first opportunity.



Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs, Preben Norholm
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 29689 posts, RR: 84
Reply 4, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 5 hours ago) and read 4028 times:
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Quoting Prebennorholm (Reply 3):
With all the hype about "the new engine generation", GEnx, Trent 1000 and Trent XWB I would imagine that both GP7000 and Trent 900 would rather soon come to the end of the road.

That is going to depend on if the A380 will only sell in the future if it is equipped with a new engines beyond what it is currently offered with.

If the A380 can continue to sell on it's own merits, then there is no need to spend the time and money certifying new engines for it.


User currently offlineAllegro From United States of America, joined Mar 2009, 235 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 3 hours ago) and read 3952 times:

Well 300 frames for the GP7200 seems entirely possible over the life of the A380.

Any chance it would be used on another frame? Perhaps a A330 replacement? I know why use "old" technology on a new plane ... still. Or perhaps a re-engine program for ...



Flown on: DC-3, DC-8, DC-9, DC-10, MD-11, MD-80, MD-90, 707, 717, 727, 737, 747, 757, 767, 777, A300, A310, A320, A330,
User currently offlinePM From India, joined Feb 2005, 6840 posts, RR: 64
Reply 6, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 2 hours ago) and read 3932 times:



Quoting Allegro (Reply 5):
Any chance it would be used on another frame?

I believe the A350XWB is still looking for another engine type...  Wink

Quoting Lumberton (Thread starter):
Airbus also confirms that the GP7200 has a 1% SFC over the Trent 900.

I don't doubt this is true but there is probably more to it than that. 1% better in cruise? On legs over 8 hours...? The GE90 beats the Trent 800 - but only only longer flights. These things can be quite contingent.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 2):
Well the Trent 1000 is currently worse than the GEnx in terms of SFC

Again, I believe the advantage is less so (or not at all) on shorter routes.

Moreover, doesn't the PW2000 have a better sfc than the RB211-535? But the RR engine outsold the PW one by 50% on the 757.

Note that I'm not challenging the basic premise that the GP7200 can outperform the Trent 900 in certain circumstances, and there's a reason why Etihad have chosen the former, but it would be premature to suggest that it's suddenly a one-horse race. If EA can sell 1,500 engines on the A380 I daresay RR can too - that's 3,000 engines or 700 A380s plus spares. Doesn't sound unreasonable. Airbus only need to sell 25 a year over twenty years to achieve that.


User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 9838 posts, RR: 96
Reply 7, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 1 hour ago) and read 3868 times:
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Quoting Lumberton (Thread starter):
The Engine Alliance partnership seems confident that Asia will drive the long term demand for the A380 and that they will sell 1500 engines

Jeez. Don't they read A-net???? What do they know...  faint   biggrin 

Now we'll all have to dump on EA as well as Airbus when we talk about VLA's (or not VLA's should I say)..  laughing 

Quoting Lumberton (Thread starter):
Airbus also confirms that the GP7200 has a 1% SFC over the Trent 900.

Whilst entirely possible, this may not be in every circumstance. There has been a view expressed that the Trent has better climb SFC, and climb engine wear, due to its triple spool configuration, but that the EA engine does edge it in cruise.

Not that I'm complaining. RR may be coming from behind, but they WILL be coming...  Smile
Which can be nothing but good news for the A380..  thumbsup 

Quoting Stitch (Reply 2):
Still, I don't believe it is beyond the realm of possibility that Engine Alliance could power upwards of 300 frames and 300 spares (one per frame)

I'm also presuming EA don't expect to garner 100% of sales....  scratchchin 

Quoting Prebennorholm (Reply 3):
With all the hype about "the new engine generation", GEnx, Trent 1000 and Trent XWB I would imagine that both GP7000 and Trent 900 would rather soon come to the end of the road.

Not to mention GTF's..  faint 

Quoting Stitch (Reply 4):
If the A380 can continue to sell on it's own merits, then there is no need to spend the time and money certifying new engines for it.

 checkmark 
I'm guessing they'll change it when they absolutely have to, and not before. The Trent 700 has sold like hot cakes in the last few years (in fact it's probably matched the GEnx over the last 2 years....)

Recent history suggests that back-fitting new engine technologies/materials will be the first port of call....
Also, by my calculation, the improvements EA are suggesting will bring the GP7000 to within 4% of the Trent XWB's fuel burn, and I'm going to guess that that's not enough to warrant the change...

But if Pratt's GTF (and RR's/GE's responses) bring double-digit advantage over the GP7000, then I could see that happening on the A380, in response to the (real) threat from similarly engined big twins.
The A380 does seem to be fortunate in that it is very conveniently placed in the mainstream thrust range for twin-aisled planes...  Smile

Rgds


User currently offlinePM From India, joined Feb 2005, 6840 posts, RR: 64
Reply 8, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 1 hour ago) and read 3859 times:



Quoting Astuteman (Reply 7):
The Trent 700 has sold like hot cakes in the last few years (in fact it's probably matched the GEnx over the last 2 years....)

Well, since you ask...

GEnx 2007 + 2008 = 440 sales (excluding spares)

Trent 700 2007+2008 = 492 sales (excluding spares)

There remain 787 and A330 orders where an engine has not yet been selected so these numbers are both likely to rise.


User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 9838 posts, RR: 96
Reply 9, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 1 hour ago) and read 3853 times:
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Quoting PM (Reply 8):
GEnx 2007 + 2008 = 440 sales (excluding spares)

Trent 700 2007+2008 = 492 sales (excluding spares)

 thumbsup 
Not bad for an engine that first ran in 1990....  biggrin 
Many thanks

Rgds


User currently offlineIkramerica From United States of America, joined May 2005, 21417 posts, RR: 60
Reply 10, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 1 hour ago) and read 3843 times:

How many engines (per installed engine) does a plane use over a 20 year life? 2 on average?

Less, more?

If we assume two, that's 8 per A380 over it's life. That means under 200 EA A380s delivered.

If it's 1.5, then that's 250 EA A380s delivered. If it's 1 spare per aircraft over the life (I doubt this at all), it's still 300 EA A380s delivered.

One assumes they expect to sell to 50% of customers at minimum, so it hardly supports Airbus's projections of 750 - 1100 total sales (3000-4400 engines with no spares over the life of the frames) unless the EA is conceding 2/3 to 3/4 of the market to Rolls...

Their estimate supports somewhere between 375 and 600 frames delivered for the A380 program, much closer to 450-500. And that's their "forward looking" forecast.



Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 9838 posts, RR: 96
Reply 11, posted (4 years 10 months 1 week 1 hour ago) and read 3839 times:
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Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 10):
Their estimate supports somewhere between 375 and 600 frames delivered for the A380 program, much closer to 450-500.

True. The next generation engines will take over after that....  Wink

Rgds


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 29689 posts, RR: 84
Reply 12, posted (4 years 10 months 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 3665 times:
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Quoting Astuteman (Reply 7):
I'm guessing they'll change it when they absolutely have to, and not before. The Trent 700 has sold like hot cakes in the last few years (in fact it's probably matched the GEnx over the last 2 years....)

Well it doesn't hurt that the Trent 700 has seen not-insignificant reductions in SFC over that time.  Wink

There is a new thread about Airbus CEO Tom Enders stating he believes GE will not power the A350XWB. If GE feels they can reduce the GE90's (and, by extension, the GP7000's) SFC by a not-insignificant percentage over the next few years, then GE may feel that they can help sell more LR777s and increase their share of engine sales on new A380 sales over the next decade.


User currently offlinePhollingsworth From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2004, 825 posts, RR: 5
Reply 13, posted (4 years 10 months 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 3634 times:



Quoting PM (Reply 6):
I don't doubt this is true but there is probably more to it than that. 1% better in cruise? On legs over 8 hours...? The GE90 beats the Trent 800 - but only only longer flights. These things can be quite contingent.

While there is some dependency to flight regime, i.e. climb vs. cruise. The GE90 beats the Trent 800 in SFC in all flight regimes (the Trent has a climb thrust schedule advantage). The reason why it only makes sense on longer flights is that the GE90 weighs so much more than the Trent. This means you either give up payload or burn more fuel for the same payload on shorter flights. I haven't looked at weight on the GP7200 to know how much more it weighs for the SFC advantage.


User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 9838 posts, RR: 96
Reply 14, posted (4 years 10 months 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 3569 times:
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Quoting Phollingsworth (Reply 13):
The reason why it only makes sense on longer flights is that the GE90 weighs so much more than the Trent

Forgot that bit. The GP7000 does indeed weigh more than the Trent 900 - by a massive 70kg per engine, if I read the A380 characteristics document right....  Smile

Rgds


User currently offlineLightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12421 posts, RR: 100
Reply 15, posted (4 years 10 months 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 3528 times:
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First my opinion, to get to 1500 sales, the current GP7200 will require a major improvement. My rumor mill indicates those improvements are moving down the pipeline... I'm a fan of the engine, but that doesn't mean it couldn't be improved.  Wink

Quoting Lumberton (Thread starter):
Airbus also confirms that the GP7200 has a 1% SFC over the Trent 900.

From my perspective, Pratt's opinion was that the GP7200 required better fuel burn than the Trent 900 to gain *any* attention for sales. The original target was 2% better than RR, so if it is only 1% better, RR has done very well. Which implies that since EA is 0.6% better than promise, RR is about 1.6% better than promise.  spin 

Oh, my rumor mill is claiming most of the 0.6% is due to Pratt exceeding expectations on the fan design.  hyper 

Also recall RR has a program to reduce their fuel burn 2%.  spin 

But from the source article:
"We've seen some places where we could improve, and we have another 1%-2% we can slowly put into the engine over the next few years, says Moravecek. "The Engine Alliance intends to sustain the 1% advantage.
 hyper 

To repeat, the original goal was to maintain a 2% lead.  Wink Since improvements are in 'fits and starts,' it wouldn't surprise me to see RR catch up to EA. At that point, the quieter engine has a slight advantage... However, I see another 2% improvement on the GP7200 with IBR compressors. Not as good as if the engine was designed with integrated blade/rotor compressors from day one, but there is still room to improve.  Wink

Quoting Lumberton (Thread starter):
Is there another source to confirm this?

Hard numbers?  no  But its within the range my rumor mill believes.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 2):
Engine Alliance could power upwards of 300 frames and 300 spares

1200 in service engines with 300 spares? Yikes, that would be counter to the current trend of reducing costs by needed fewer spares. Oh... 1:4 is appropriate for the current fleet size, but eventually the ratio will drop to 1:16 to 1:20.

Quoting PM (Reply 6):
I believe the A350XWB is still looking for another engine type...

There is a thread on that already.  Wink In my opinion, the GP7200 would need to go counter-rotating, go with integrated blade rotor compressors, and have a slight fan size increase to be competitive on the A350XWB. Which would produce one heck of an engine for the A389.  Wink

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 7):
I'm also presuming EA don't expect to garner 100% of sales....

 checkmark  But they do expect sales to tilt highly in favor of which ever engine the customers consider 'better.' They are working hard to be that engine (as is RR).

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 7):
Not to mention GTF's..

 hyper  But there will not be a GTF on the A380. A350XWB? I can hope. But it could be a GP7200 improvement.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 10):
How many engines (per installed engine) does a plane use over a 20 year life? 2 on average?

About 1.05. The original engine is rebuilt and put onto another airframe.

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 14):
Forgot that bit. The GP7000 does indeed weigh more than the Trent 900 - by a massive 70kg per engine, if I read the A380 characteristics document right....

Sounds about right. I've heard 150lbm from engineers who should know. 70kg is about 150lbm (each engine varies by 15lbm or so from each other, so there isn't one weight after manufacturing tolerances). IBR compressors would take away the weight advantage though...

Lightsaber



I've posted how many times?!?
User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 9838 posts, RR: 96
Reply 16, posted (4 years 10 months 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 3377 times:
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Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 15):
1200 in service engines with 300 spares? Yikes, that would be counter to the current trend of reducing costs by needed fewer spares. Oh... 1:4 is appropriate for the current fleet size, but eventually the ratio will drop to 1:16 to 1:20.

Which implies that EA's 1500 projection refers to more than 300 frames......

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 15):
In my opinion, the GP7200 would need to go counter-rotating, go with integrated blade rotor compressors, and have a slight fan size increase to be competitive on the A350XWB. Which would produce one heck of an engine for the A389.

And will force RR to respond, of course...  Smile
Maybe Airbus aren't as dumb as we think...  Wink

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 15):
But there will not be a GTF on the A380

Never?
Never's a pretty long time  Smile

Rgds


User currently offlineTrex8 From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 4494 posts, RR: 14
Reply 17, posted (4 years 10 months 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 3266 times:
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Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 15):
(each engine varies by 15lbm or so from each other, so there isn't one weight after manufacturing tolerances).

thats astonishing to me even though these weigh what 6 or 7 tonnes, is that because of fluids or actual "hardware" weight differences??


User currently offlineAirbusA6 From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2005, 2004 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (4 years 10 months 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 3189 times:

Who decides how much to invest in these future upgrades of the GP7200? For example, the GP7200 is prety important to P&W, as it keeps their name in the big fan business, while GE (with their GE90-115 and GEnX product line) might not be so bothered about it, looking at the issues with them (not) powering the A350XWB...


it's the bus to stansted (now renamed national express a4 to ruin my username)
User currently offlineLightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12421 posts, RR: 100
Reply 19, posted (4 years 10 months 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 3021 times:
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Quoting Astuteman (Reply 16):
And will force RR to respond, of course... Smile
Maybe Airbus aren't as dumb as we think...

 checkmark  Competition improves the breed...

I'm really split on the GP7200 on the A350XWB. Not that an improved engine couldn't compete... just the chances of it going forward.

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 16):
Never?
Never's a pretty long time

By the time the EA contract expires, the A380 will get a new name.  Wink

Quoting Trex8 (Reply 17):
thats astonishing to me even though these weigh what 6 or 7 tonnes, is that because of fluids or actual "hardware" weight differences??

Hardware. Take the primary pressure casting. Its made from nickel. The rib thicknesses vary by a few % (it has a 'honeycomb' reinforcing rib structure to lighten the casing). However, the casting creates voids. So many weld repairs are required on every casting.

Quoting AirbusA6 (Reply 18):
Who decides how much to invest in these future upgrades of the GP7200? For example, the GP7200 is prety important to P&W, as it keeps their name in the big fan business, while GE (with their GE90-115 and GEnX product line) might not be so bothered about it, looking at the issues with them (not) powering the A350XWB...

Its right of first refusal by both partners. If GE refuses to invest... then Pratt is allowed to develop their own engine for the A350XWB. So... does GE want to allow Pratt onto the A350XWB alone? Or is it cheaper to invest in the engine? Now GE knows Pratt isn't ready today for the A350XWB, so there is no need to rush into anything. But if Pratt proposes an A350XWB engine and GE refuses... three years later Pratt could 'spring' a GTF on the market and there would be little to nothing GE could do to legally block it.

Pratt knows what GE knows.
GE knows what Pratt knows.
The negotiating has already begun. Where will it go? I don't know. But it looks like a GP7200 modified for the A350XWB has a chance. But how much of a chance? Again, I do not know.  Sad

Oh, if its a Pratt component, they could pay to develop an improved component. Every percent drop in fuel burn shifts a fraction of the GP7200 party who developed the improvement (this is standard for joint venture engines). This forces the other partner to invest to keep revenue. The same is true of IAE or CFM. For example, half of the GP7200 beating promise fuel burn is due to the Pratt fan. So if GE hadn't stepped up to bat on their components, there would have been a revenue shift. The opposite would be true too as GE beat promise and Pratt would have taken a revenue cut for only meeting promise. But since both exceeded expectations by the same amount, the revenue is being split per the original expectations.

Now, EA (or IAE, or CFM..) can develop a new engine program where the revenue is pre-negotiated for an improved variant of an existing design. There EA 'funds' the development and is reimbursed by revenue. I know it sounds like someone paying itself, but these little contract nuances become important.

Lightsaber



I've posted how many times?!?
User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 9838 posts, RR: 96
Reply 20, posted (4 years 10 months 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 2991 times:
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Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 19):
By the time the EA contract expires, the A380 will get a new name

Don't care what they call it...  biggrin 

Rgds


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