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AF A332 Crash (F-GZCP) - Part 19  
User currently offlineModerators From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 505 posts, RR: 0
Posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 68633 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
FORUM MODERATOR

Part 18 is approaching 300 replies:

AF A332 Crash (F-GZCP) - Part 18 (by Moderators Jun 19 2009 in Civil Aviation)

So please continue here with part 19.

Thanks


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300 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineGiopan1975 From Greece, joined Jun 2009, 257 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 68334 times:



Quote:
I'm not quite sure what you're getting at there but it seems clear to me that Pihero was neither saying those charts prove there were no exceptional weather phenomena, nor is he saying those charts were used by the crew.

I am not disagreeing with Pihero. On the contrary, I agree with what he is saying that these charts are inadequate in order to jump into any conclusions about that night's weather. By mentioning my grandmother, I was only joking. These charts provide a very general, undetailed view and cover a vast area. I wish we had at our disposal the same weather info the poor cockpit crew had before and shortly after take-off.

Tim Vasquez and other more detailed analysis? Yes, they make it look pretty likely that weather was nothing out of the ordinary for area and season.


User currently offlineComeAndGo From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 991 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 68092 times:

If the plane impacted the sea and then broke into 2 or 3 sections and sank then the black boxes should be still attached to the now sunken fuselage. In that case there's good hope of finding them even when the boxes stop pinging. What was found floating in the water in the last couple of days can be coming from the fracture points of the aircraft. One flight attendant said the galley and flight attendant seats to be from the 2nd door area. So the fuselage broke just in front of the main wing.

User currently offlineDavid L From United Kingdom, joined May 1999, 9483 posts, RR: 42
Reply 3, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 68071 times:



Quoting Giopan1975 (Reply 1):
I am not disagreeing with Pihero. On the contrary, I agree with what he is saying

Fair enough. It was the "Come on...!" that confused me.  Smile


User currently offlineSniffmom From Norway, joined Feb 2009, 64 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 66874 times:



Quoting ComeAndGo (Reply 2):
If the plane impacted the sea and then broke into 2 or 3 sections and sank then the black boxes should be still attached to the now sunken fuselage. In that case there's good hope of finding them even when the boxes stop pinging. What was found floating in the water in the last couple of days can be coming from the fracture points of the aircraft. One flight attendant said the galley and flight attendant seats to be from the 2nd door area. So the fuselage broke just in front of the main wing.

Probably broke at least two places then, as there are pictures of the overhead bin from seat row 42, which I have understood to be the last seatrow. (Middle in this pic.)

http://s635.photobucket.com/albums/u.../?action=view¤t=caboclo8.jpg


User currently offlineMandala499 From Indonesia, joined Aug 2001, 6590 posts, RR: 75
Reply 5, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 66620 times:

NAV20,
OK, based on your reply #202...
In alternate law 2, if because of multiple ADR faults the only protection you have is Load Factor (g-load)... No other protections!
AoA protection = None
Low airspeed protection (low energy, high aoa) are replaced with markers on your PFD to show "Please don't break this if you want me to keep you alive"
If you allow your speed to go below Vsw, the stall warning comes, and below Vs1g, you WILL stall. If at this stage you pull the stick back... well, no need to imagine an airbus... any jet will do... "what happens if you pull the stick/yoke back at Vs1g ?

Pulling back or pushing the stick, in ALT2 is still "load demand input" method... just no protection.

Why ALT2? We suspect that based on the data available (which is "indicative only").
---
Clothed/declothed bodies... not a red herring... but trying to conclude out of it is...
--------
Giopan,

Quote:
You cannot conclude anything about that night’s weather hazards by looking at these charts, as conditions in that particular area can change rapidly.

That's a SigWX chart...
In a preflight, you'd be getting wind&Temp charts for various altitudes, wxsat images, sigWX charts, sigWX warnings... Zeke has already written about that in part 16 I think.

Weather has something to do with it, but, unless the weather was extreme, failures caused by the pitot icing should not have resulted in the airplane's demise. Previous cases within Air France itself of entering weather AND having pitot tube icing resulted in a safe outcome (and it was these problems that prompted Air France to commence changing pitot tubes just days before the accident). Something else must have happened that caused the chain of events to become an accident. This is what we've been discussing.

Quoting Giopan1975 (Reply 1):
On the contrary, I agree with what he is saying that these charts are inadequate in order to jump into any conclusions about that night's weather.

If I am to fly across the atlantic and I only get that chart... I'd walk off the plane...  Smile

Quoting Giopan1975 (Reply 1):
These charts provide a very general, undetailed view and cover a vast area. I wish we had at our disposal the same weather info the poor cockpit crew had before and shortly after take-off.

OK... this should give you the MINIMUM they would receive (This would be NOAA version):
IR SAT IMAGE ICAO-B1 (coincidentally, look, more clusters on the route today, plus a nice compact one just south of Dakar)
SigWX 24hr forecast - Area B1 (AMER-AF)

Wind/Temp Prog 6hrs forecast FL390 - Area B1
Wind/Temp Prog 6hrs forecast FL340 - Area B1
Wind/Temp Prog 6hrs forecast FL300 - Area B1
Wind/Temp Prog 6hrs forecast FL240 - Area B1
Wind/Temp Prog 6hrs forecast FL180 - Area B1
Wind/Temp Prog 6hrs forecast FL100 - Area B1
Wind/Temp Prog 12hrs forecast FL600 - Area B1
Wind/Temp Prog 12hrs forecast FL450 - Area B1
Wind/Temp Prog 12hrs forecast FL390 - Area B1
Wind/Temp Prog 12hrs forecast FL340 - Area B1
Wind/Temp Prog 12hrs forecast FL300 - Area B1
Wind/Temp Prog 12hrs forecast FL240 - Area B1
Wind/Temp Prog 12hrs forecast FL240 - Area B1
Wind/Temp Prog 12hrs forecast FL180 - Area B1
Wind/Temp Prog 12hrs forecast FL100 - Area B1
Wind/Temp Prog 12hrs forecast FL050 - Area B1

Ash cloud forecast Buenos Aires VAAC
Ash Cloud forecast Toulouse VAAC
Ash Cloud forecast London VAAC
Ash Cloud forecast Washington VAAC (this has something in it today)

Then a list of all the Airport Forecasts for airports enroute
Then a list of all the airports current actual for airports enroute (snapshot purposes)

SIGMET reports South America
SIGMET reports Africa
SIGMET reports Europe

(+ additional forecasts available, like +18hrs up to +36hrs)

I hope that gives you an idea!  Smile
For more precise data, there are specialist weather info providers... but I don't have access to those.

The Ops Center would have these data running on their screens 24/7... providing info to company crew that requests more update weather... but, most only able to do so via text/ACARS, anymore, U call them on Satphone.

Quote:
If they keep their mouth shut - the void will be filled by media speculations.

Again they need to only release what they know for sure. The media can speculate all they want... we can speculate till our bandwidth runs dry, but the authorities can not speculate until they reasonably believe that no more significant pieces of data can be obtained... until then, facts only.

Keeping silence is better than opening their mouths and say the wrong things!

Mandala499



When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
User currently offlineSniffmom From Norway, joined Feb 2009, 64 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 66285 times:

Updated ACARS from eurocockpit.com. Since I have no technical knowhow whatsoever, I'm not able to discuss any of it, but it might be interesting for those of you who do:

http://www.eurocockpit.com/archives/indiv/E009445.php

(English version at the bottom).


User currently offlineGiopan1975 From Greece, joined Jun 2009, 257 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 65677 times:



Quoting Sniffmom (Reply 4):
http://s635.photobucket.com/albums/u.../?action=view¤t=caboclo8.jpg

These quite large pieces give the impression of a low speed sea impact like after an unsuccessful ditch. Plane not totally uncontrollable. Some resemblance to JAL123?

I think that after finding large not-badly-damaged pieces it would not be difficult for an expert to calculate with some accuracy (given the exact coordinates of the debris sites, the debris characteristics, the time found and the ocean currents) if the plane partly or fully disintegrated in mid air or came down intact hitting at some low speed and with some control ability.


User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 36
Reply 8, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 65527 times:



Quoting Mandala499 (Reply 5):
NAV20,
OK, based on your reply #202...
In alternate law 2, if because of multiple ADR faults the only protection you have is Load Factor (g-load)... No other protections!

The only information we have so far, Mandala499, according to the ACARS messages, is that the aeroplane's flight control systems 'defaulted' into 'Alternate Law.'

If you're now suggesting that it 'progressed' - or rather 'regressed'  Smile - into 'Abnormal Alternate Law Without Speed Stability,' or 'Direct Law,' or even 'Mechanical Back-up' - the latter meaning that they would only have had the rudder and the trim-wheel to fly the aeroplane with - you'd better post some evidence......  Smile

In the interests of balance, here's a report on a markedly-similar 'upset' on a Qantas 772 in 2005. It comes pretty clear (to all but the most extreme partisans) that the incident occurred due to a fault in just one of the ADIRUs which was officially considered ('as per manual') to be non-critical.

http://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/...005/AAIR/pdf/aair200503722_001.pdf

The Qantas flightcrew managed to sort it out and successfully land manually. They did do one thing that non-pilots may construe as a 'mistake,' though. They turned off the auto-throttle - but they didn't 'disarm' it. Leaving the 'auto-systems' free to 're-activate' the bloody thing at the worst possible moment......

No-one ever ask why I prefer to fly with just two airlines. Qantas and Cathay (the latter being Zeke's airline, as far as I know).



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineEllehammer09 From Denmark, joined Jun 2009, 40 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 64812 times:



Quoting NAV20 (Reply 8):
No-one ever ask why I prefer to fly with just two airlines. Qantas and Cathay (the latter being Zeke's airline, as far as I know).

You can't be serious?? Then let me ask you why?


User currently offlineULMFlyer From Brazil, joined Sep 2006, 475 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 64693 times:

I think Pihero is correct and the Émeraude might, at this point in time, be (or have been) onto something, otherwise the Nautile wouldn't have been deployed.

However, does anyone know why the Brazilian Navy didn't deploy any of its Type 209 subs to help, especially considering the high initial uncertainty in the crash position and how critical it is to locate the recorders in a timely fashion?

Even though their latest Type 209 (the S-34 Tikuna) entered service in 2006, I suppose its capabilities aren't comparable to a French SSN of the Rubis class (or probably to the towed arrays lent by the USN). Still, considering the crapshoot nature of the initial search efforts, I'd have thought the more assets, the better chance of getting lucky.

Maybe the French and Brazilian Navies didnt' want two subs working in close proximity to avoid a possible repeat of the HMS Vanguard x Le Triomphant collision, but I guess coordinating their respective SAR areas wouldn't have been that difficult. Or maybe neither Navy wanted the other to have a closer look at its capabilities, which is understandable.

Sorry if this is somewhat OT.



Let's go Pens!
User currently offlineGiopan1975 From Greece, joined Jun 2009, 257 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 64708 times:



Quoting Mandala499 (Reply 5):
I hope that gives you an idea!

That's great! Thanks!

Do you find this info adequate enough? This is a totally hypothetical example. Take a cockpit crew with 20,000 hrs. flighttime all of it flown in clear weather, turbulent-free air. Supply them with all this kind of weather info sources and ask them to take a fully loaded passenger jet from A to B having to pass through a widespread 500 miles zone full of thunderstorm cells, active 50000ft topping CBs and areas with moderate/severe turbulence. I bet they are going to have a hell of a time, they may consider turning back! Then take a crew with the same flight time but with lots of experience crossing the equator and give them no weather info at all, turn off their weather radar. I bet they are going to make it through one way or another.

Quoting Sniffmom (Reply 6):
Updated ACARS from eurocockpit.com. Since I have no technical knowhow whatsoever, I'm not able to discuss any of it, but it might be interesting for those of you who do:

http://www.eurocockpit.com/archives/...5.php

This document makes it clear that the same sequence of ACARS messages were generated in some 35 past cases with pitot tubes malfunction involved and that AF were already in the hasteless process of tubes replacement. Wouldn't this support that pitot tubes icing was apparently there, somewhere in the begining of the chain of events? I apologise if this has already been discussed (I think by Pihero, some 2749 posts ago).


User currently offlineSniffmom From Norway, joined Feb 2009, 64 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 64533 times:



Quoting Giopan1975 (Reply 11):

This document makes it clear that the same sequence of ACARS messages were generated in some 35 past cases with pitot tubes malfunction involved and that AF were already in the hasteless process of tubes replacement. Wouldn't this support that pitot tubes icing was apparently there, somewhere in the begining of the chain of events? I apologise if this has already been discussed (I think by Pihero, some 2749 posts ago).

The updated ACARS list (to the left on that page) is supposedly updated with more messages, that were not among those published by French TV from the start. So, if that's newsworthy enough for eurocockpit to publish now, I guess they couldn't have been discussed 2749 posts ago. Hopefully, the ACARS experts here can clarify.


User currently offlineDavid L From United Kingdom, joined May 1999, 9483 posts, RR: 42
Reply 13, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 64249 times:



Quoting NAV20 (Reply 8):
If you're now suggesting that it 'progressed' - or rather 'regressed' Smile - into 'Abnormal Alternate Law Without Speed Stability,' or 'Direct Law,' or even 'Mechanical Back-up'

 confused  I guess I must have missed something because I don't see anything to suggest that in the post you quoted.


User currently offlineSpeedbird128 From Pitcairn Islands, joined Oct 2003, 1648 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 63195 times:



Quoting NAV20 (Reply 8):
on a Qantas 772 in 2005

Qantas have B777-200's??? Methinks it's a MAS machine perhaps...



A306, A313, A319, A320, A321, A332, A343, A345, A346 A388, AC90, B06, B722, B732, B733, B735, B738, B744, B762, B772, B7
User currently offlineMandala499 From Indonesia, joined Aug 2001, 6590 posts, RR: 75
Reply 15, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 62170 times:



Quoting NAV20 (Reply 8):
The only information we have so far, Mandala499, according to the ACARS messages, is that the aeroplane's flight control systems 'defaulted' into 'Alternate Law.'

OK, ALT 1 or ALT 2?
The reason why I said ALT 2 is that the list of problems that would throw it into ALT..

A single ADR fault for degrade to ALT1 would not throw the A/P off. A double ADR - degrade to ALT 2 and A/P off, while ADR DISAGREE wouldn't throw the A/P off but would make the airplane go to ALT 2. A/T going off simultaneously, is likely to have been caused by the system detecting ADR problems.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 8):
into 'Abnormal Alternate Law Without Speed Stability,' or 'Direct Law,' or even 'Mechanical Back-up' - the latter meaning that they would only have had the rudder and the trim-wheel to fly the aeroplane with - you'd better post some evidence.....

I suspect they went from NORM to ALT 2 (there's ALT 1, ALT 2, then DIR)...
OK, I'm only going to answer the Abnormal Law part...

First, Abnormal Law is something different!!!!
Pihero mentioned it eons ago... let me repeat:

Quote:
ABNORMAL ATTITUDE LAWS
An abnormal attitude law in pitch and roll is provided if the aircraft is in flight and in any of these conditions :
— Pitch attitude > 50° nose up or 30° nose down
— Bank angle > 125 °
— Angle of attack > 30° or < − 10°
— Speed > 440 kt or < 60 kt
— Mach > 0.96 or vious ones we see is that this one has the report version, not just the headline version.

The page concludes with a warning/riddle/what have you:
[quote]in order to let you compare the events experienced by the flight AF447 with those described in the technical note mentioned above, we would like to expose the actual list of the contents of the famous ACARS messages sent by the plane. In order to keep our sources secret, we have transformed the appearance of the original file, but the content has remained exactly the same.

There are of course the alarms and warnings mentioned in the Air france technical note.

Take the headlines, and slap this version to explain the messages that are included in this version... Use the order that was in the headlines list.

Quote:
This "Technical Note" comes from Air France and seems to be an authentic document. We audited the origins, dates, and metadata contained in the original file. We have confirmation that this document was valid, validated, and still current as at 31 May 2009. No one had heard from the plane and no one could have imagined that the plane was never going to land in Roissy and yet this document had been printed out, that same day, in order to advise the tech team on the ramp to get ready to change some probes on the aircraft’s arrival.

Again, what an irony... *sigh*...

There is one thing I agree with that page:

Quote:
What we need now is to understand why our colleagues flying the AF477 were unable to get the aircraft out of the mess. After consulting the pilots that have been faced with these same Pitot issues, we realize that a large amount of immediate judgement is needed to overcome the multiple alarms, in a very little time. The cockpit crew must execute long check-lists and procedures, complex and even somewhow contradictory... By night, in manual flight, without any speed reference, with the probable loss of attitude, and partial stand-by instruments... Only a donkey could state in public that a simple hold of «pitch and power» could be enough to solve the problem.

We can all sit here ranting on about pitch & power would solve the problem... but we've also already discussed the part that I bolded above... it's not as easy as it sounds... and hence the question remains... as per the underlined part... why didn't they make it this time????

Mandala499



When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
User currently offlineLTC8K6 From United States of America, joined Jun 2009, 948 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 62099 times:

I don't see any new ACARS info.

User currently offlineDenverdanny From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 255 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 61963 times:



Quoting ComeAndGo (Reply 2):
If the plane impacted the sea and then broke into 2 or 3 sections and sank



Quoting Giopan1975 (Reply 7):
These quite large pieces give the impression of a low speed sea impact like after an unsuccessful ditch. Plane not totally uncontrollable. Some resemblance to JAL123?

No and no.

Please, please detach yourselves from your romantic notions of an attempted ditching or intact crash into the sea. I know, we all want them to have had some sort of chance at survival, but the evidence so far points to inflight breakup at some point, despite reiterations that we should keep our minds open and exhortations of wave action clothes removal.

Quoting Giopan1975 (Reply 7):
or came down intact hitting at some low speed and with some control ability

We would have had some sort of communication from the aircraft if they had enough control ability to do that.


User currently offlineGoooooaaal From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 87 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 60983 times:



Quoting Mandala499 (Reply 5):
unless the weather was extreme

Isn't it possible that that the weather was in fact so extreme that it structurally damaged the aircraft and/or its systems, resulting in a loss of control and crash. We know for a fact that the captain reported strong turbulence, and the plane crashed not long after. Could it be solely due to the weather just ripping apart the aircraft and/or destroying its systems? I am not saying that this is what happened, and it does sound simplistic, but as a general rule, all other things being equal, the most simple explanation is often the best.


User currently offlineKhobar From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 2379 posts, RR: 4
Reply 19, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 60352 times:



Quoting Giopan1975 (Reply 7):
These quite large pieces give the impression of a low speed sea impact like after an unsuccessful ditch. Plane not totally uncontrollable. Some resemblance to JAL123?

If the plane had been preparing to ditch, wouldn't it make sense that the pax would be strapped in with life vests?

Did I not read a couple of thousand posts ago that jump seats were found unoccupied? Does that seem reasonable if the plane were being ditched?


User currently offlineEllehammer09 From Denmark, joined Jun 2009, 40 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 59529 times:



Quoting Denverdanny (Reply 17):
We would have had some sort of communication from the aircraft if they had enough control ability to do that.

Who says they they didn't? And even though they had the necessary time to communicate, they might have been struggeling to control the plane untill secs from impact. Aviate, navigate, communicate..

Quoting Khobar (Reply 19):
Did I not read a couple of thousand posts ago that jump seats were found unoccupied? Does that seem reasonable if the plane were being ditched?

Nobody can tell were the crew would have been at the critical time, maybe some of them were in the crew rest container..


User currently offlineFCA767 From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2006, 1724 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 59450 times:

I'm still thinking about them terrorists...
The Only Reason they've got doubts is not the name...but the Date of birth that they cannot get off anyone...
But why wouldn't there be anyone to give the date of birth like family or friends?


User currently offlineGiopan1975 From Greece, joined Jun 2009, 257 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 59422 times:



Quoting Khobar (Reply 19):
If the plane had been preparing to ditch, wouldn't it make sense that the pax would be strapped in with life vests?

Did I not read a couple of thousand posts ago that jump seats were found unoccupied? Does that seem reasonable if the plane were being ditched?

You cannot discard the scenario that some attempt to ditch the plane took place even with the plane being badly injured and already lost her integrity. Maybe, some of the 228 people or less, that were seated inside the plane when it hit the water, will be found wearing their uninflated life vests still fastened to their seats. Bear in mind that these 2,3,4? minutes of rapid descent from 35,000ft to sea level should have been a living hell and an absolute state of panic and chaos inside the cabin. Cabin depressurization is very likely to have taken place at some point on. One should have been very very cool to go for one's life vest during this very short period of time. A lot of the passengers should have been asleep. It could have been impossible for flight attendants to reach their seats even if captain had ordered for brace positions (had his voice been able to be heard).


User currently offlineRichierich From United States of America, joined Nov 2000, 4199 posts, RR: 6
Reply 23, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 58587 times:



Quoting Khobar (Reply 19):
If the plane had been preparing to ditch, wouldn't it make sense that the pax would be strapped in with life vests?

Did I not read a couple of thousand posts ago that jump seats were found unoccupied? Does that seem reasonable if the plane were being ditched



Quoting Ellehammer09 (Reply 20):
Nobody can tell were the crew would have been at the critical time, maybe some of them were in the crew rest container..

Wow, literally 5,000 posts on this subject and we are still reiterating basic ideas and theories about a crash we actually know very little about.
Not to pick on you two (you had posted in the latest thread, therefore it was convenient) but these are the same rehashed theories I have been reading about for three weeks now.

The reality is that we don't know what happened. Unless you have some inside information, I'd say that drawing inferences about an in-flight breakup versus a semi-controlled ditching, based off of the amount of clothing on the recovered bodies and some galley equipment, is extremely tenuous at best.

Hey I like conjecture and hypotheses as much as the next guy but how many times are we all going to talk about the same ideas?



None shall pass!!!!
User currently offlineKhobar From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 2379 posts, RR: 4
Reply 24, posted (4 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 58221 times:



Quoting Giopan1975 (Reply 22):
You cannot discard the scenario that some attempt to ditch the plane took place even with the plane being badly injured and already lost her integrity. Maybe, some of the 228 people or less, that were seated inside the plane when it hit the water, will be found wearing their uninflated life vests still fastened to their seats. Bear in mind that these 2,3,4? minutes of rapid descent from 35,000ft to sea level should have been a living hell and an absolute state of panic and chaos inside the cabin. Cabin depressurization is very likely to have taken place at some point on. One should have been very very cool to go for one's life vest during this very short period of time. A lot of the passengers should have been asleep. It could have been impossible for flight attendants to reach their seats even if captain had ordered for brace positions (had his voice been able to be heard).

I don't discard scenarios at all. I'm just looking at the number of maybe's being applied to support this particular scenario, and I can't help but wonder about the necessary impact sequence.

In what sense do you envision the plane being "badly injured/lost integrity" but still controllable enough for a soft landing? What are the possibilities that might have led to that situation? What descent rate would be chosen in the event of a "normal" decompression at 35,000 feet?

I haven't seen much of an update on the crash in a couple of days (reports and denials about the recorders?).

Quoting Richierich (Reply 23):
Not to pick on you two (you had posted in the latest thread, therefore it was convenient) but these are the same rehashed theories I have been reading about for three weeks now.

I was not proposing any theory - I was questioning the logic of someone else's.


25 Mandala499 : Can't rule it out, loss of control at or after 0214UTC is suspected... but if the weather had damaged the aircraft, what kind of damage would we be e
26 Khobar : And what would the cabin crew be doing at this time - walking the aisles or strapped in their jumpseats? Do we have a TAGS database yet? IOW - do we
27 Pihero : Thank you, Sniffmon. I see that someone managed to get his hand on the JACS/ATA decode, which was not available either in the maintenace manual or th
28 Pihero : It's a portable O2 bottle. That's all we can say. It could have come from any crew safety position, anywhere in the cabint.
29 Adam42185 : I think what he meant by that is that the most simple explanation is often the most accurate, or most likely, not that you should decide what happene
30 Pihero : And in this case, the most simple and accurate explanation is already looking straight at you : The airplane didn't stay airborne. People died. and t
31 Mandala499 : Merci... it reduces the confusion... It was obvious in the linked sight it gave, and the wording of the text... delete the subjective text, and we're
32 Spacecadet : I think what he meant to do is invoke Occam's razor, but it was kind of a mangled attempt at it. Occam's razor is commonly mis-quoted as "the simples
33 Giopan1975 : Thanks Mandala.I think this is the best way to describe what I have been thinking. My simple logic tells me: compare this more accurate ACARS list of
34 Flyingfox27 : Unfortunatly aviation and many other businesses tend to go by a method often called *Tombstone Technololy* where they wait for a disaster before somet
35 Giopan1975 : I agree (and who doesnt?) that this general rule should usually apply in cases where not so many events/incidents/accidents have occured and where mo
36 Ellehammer09 : Still, no one can tell what the crew was doing. The listed possibilities are based on what is usual for the crew to do in a specific situation or at
37 Pylon101 : I understand we don't have any new infrmation about SAR in progress. Officials keep silence. Media outlets reported about "Nautilus" in action. No act
38 Pihero : As there is very little in terms of information from the search-and-recovery teams, the subject of training was bound to reappear. And it's a legitima
39 ComeAndGo : Well, the galley is in one piece. The food / drink containers are in one piece. The overhead luggage rack is in one piece. It looks almost like new o
40 David L : It's not about how "simple" an explanation is but about how "obvious" it is when taking the evidence into account. Even if pitot icing turns out to h
41 Post contains links NAV20 : Actually nine AF upsets 'in the past year,' ComeAndGo. Mostly A340s but lately A330s as well. There have also been two A330 upsets reported by Air Ca
42 David L : Well, we don't have much more to go on. I can't understand why so many are saying "it should have been fixed ages ago" when we don't know what "it" i
43 Giopan1975 : We know - specific models of pitot tubes made by a manufacturer called Thales, vulnerable to some not ordinary weather conditions. As far as I know,
44 David L : Really? We know that the Thales pitots are to blame for all piot icing and unreliable speed incidents? Why have similar things happened to other type
45 Giopan1975 : Well, for airliners to be replacing them, I guess there should be some worrying about them. I think there are official documents (AF and Airbus) rais
46 Giopan1975 : Now, on cnn.com "Bodies recovered in Atlantic of captain and crew member of Air France flight 447 that crashed off Brazil, airline says."
47 Post contains images Desediez : I checked the AMM and the IPC of the A340 and A330. As already assumed, this is definitely a so called "Spoiler No. 1", which is the most inner one.
48 2175301 : Actually, no. Once the black box pingers run down the chance of finding the wreckage is almost zero. Personally, I figure that the pingers are probab
49 Desediez : Well said. Up to now nothing has come up about the way, how the deicing of the A330 works. Every A330 does have three boxes called PHC (Probe Heating
50 Post contains links LTC8K6 : Yes, the bodies of one of the pilots and a crew member have been found/identified. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...le/2009/06/25/AR200906250089
51 Sniffmom : Many thanks for your explanation! I only put the link up here because the ACARS messages have previously been discussed at length, and thus I figured
52 David L : Yes, but that's not the same as saying they should all have been replaced immediately based on the information they had at the time... and perhaps ev
53 RFields5421 : I don't understand the logic of your statement that if they had fallen, they would be in many pieces, and that alone makes an in-air breakup impossib
54 RFields5421 : I understand 'pilot error' occurs, and in a very real sense the vast majority of accidents/ incidents have pilot error as a component. But I fully ag
55 Pihero : A reasoned piece of posting. Thanks. Please have a look at the highjacked ET 767 last moments. You have hundresd of reference and videos on youtube.
56 David L : Spot on. Your point about "pilot error" is one I've tried to make a couple of times but not nearly as eloquently. There's a huge difference between "
57 Slinky09 : Thanks for a great post.
58 BOACVC10 : At the current time, CNN is reporting the Captain and (a) Steward have been found. I'm surprised that they were able to locate the Captain separately
59 Breiz : Careful with the wording: The bodies of the Captain and of one steward have been identified among the bodies already recovered.
60 Acelanzarote : As with all news reporting, how do they know this is a member of the flight crew, I presume the body was still clothed.....? just hope whatever went
61 Post contains links Sniffmom : Confirmed by Air France: http://alphasite.airfrance.com/en/s01/ Edit: As to your assumption about clothes, I take it that all bodies are confirmed as
62 Giopan1975 : In this case of pitot tubes' possible failure, the speed of replacement of the necessary parts is a decision made by businessmen, not pilots neither
63 Zeke : Load of bullocks. BIG BIG BIG difference between a blocked pitot tube and an upset. An upset is a extreme or abnormal flight attitude. An upset is de
64 474218 : I know I haven't read everything written about AF447 but in what I have read In have not read anything about finding an "oil slick" on the water. So t
65 Post contains links Giopan1975 : I realise that this "other forum" can be totally unreliable and I will trust our Pihero or our Zeke if they say so. I find this point very interesting
66 Khobar : The ET 767 was another survivable impact. The deaths largely came as a result of inflating life vests prior to exiting the plane, trapping those pax
67 Richierich : That's a fair comment - I admit I was surprised that a cockpit crew member was found seperately from the flight deck. I would have guessed that most
68 David L : I don't think it is made entirely by businessmen. I'd be surprised if there was no technical input. If we'd been discussing this before AF447, I'll b
69 Canoecarrier : There is no reason to assume he could not have been in crew rest or in first class. IIRC there were three type rated pilots on the plane. Just a thou
70 Post contains links Weizenjaeger : I speak passable Portuguese (Brazilian), and this puzzles me: " target=_blank>http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn....html The Washington Post (Reuter
71 Zeke : No it is fiction dressed up to look factual. They clearly said at the start of that list of points "This paper could demonstrate several things". "Co
72 RFields5421 : Some of the first pictures of discovered wreckage showed very clearly 'slicks' of fuel on the surface near some of the debris. They were small, and h
73 474218 : Thanks, I must have missed the those pictures.
74 Seanc0x0 : I seem to remember that they decided that slick was actually bilge oil from a ship. There was an article to that effect around the time they found th
75 RFields5421 : I should have addressed that crash. I've seen very few photos of the wreckage after the impact. That is a possible scenario, though that aircraft fli
76 Post contains links and images Comorin : I just thought it might be nice to take a break and reflect: View Large View MediumPhoto © Andrew Compolo Peace.
77 RFields5421 : I would like to address the topic of the clothed or unclothed state of the remains recovered. I really think the clothed or unclothed state of the rem
78 Pihero : Now, think away from an attempted ditching (at night and on a rough sea... ) and more of a fuselage, that's more or less intact, hitting with an impo
79 Mandala499 : Re: To change or not to change something... the risk analysis... No hindsights for "they should have blablabla" please. But you need to assess the lev
80 AVLNative : Thank you for that very informative post!
81 Mandala499 : There are differences... CORRECT. But how it ended up at sea, we can only speculate (but not recklessly please). As we've established, Pitot Icing sh
82 Spacecadet : I think so. I had the Ethiopan crash going through my head as early as thread 1, and I'm surprised it took so long to bring it up. However, I do agre
83 BuyantUkhaa : What would be a typical break-up sequence due to overspeed buffeting, does anyone know?
84 David L : On this forum? Without a doubt! Some people will always "know better". In fact, even if they'd changed them and it had made no difference, some would
85 Canoecarrier : Thanks for the clarification. I perhaps should have chosen a better term tan "uncontrollable". It was the "window" to gain a more normal flight confi
86 Gonzalo : That can be true in general terms maybe, but in the aviation industry isolated cases like the AS 261 accident, where the management / businessman dec
87 David L : ... and that they only did it because of AF447.
88 Movingtin : Does not have to be a "Fault" with the ADR, The ADR's could be operating perfectly normal. They just dont agree with each other. This is only going t
89 Trystero : Sorry I feel like the betrayed husband here. Everyone is talking about Air Caraibes incident since the begining of this threads and it seems I am the
90 David L : I was talking about iced pitots and unreliable air data, not about incidents identical to AF447, if that's what you're getting at.
91 Post contains links Sniffmom : Here's the link to the Air Caraibes report, but I can only find it in French. http://www.eurocockpit.com/docs/ACA.pdf
92 Trystero : French is OK (more or less...). The technical part is harder, but got the general idea. Thank you.[Edited 2009-06-25 16:02:04][Edited 2009-06-25 16:0
93 Post contains links Sniffmom : Latest press release from the FAB: - number of bodies found changed to 51 - 14 persons identified so far http://www.fab.mil.br/portal/capa/index.php?m
94 Goooooaaal : I was just sitting on a bench down at Constitution Beach this pleasant afternoon, relaxing and thinking about life and other things, when AF 332 pass
95 Khobar : When I lost the cam position sensor on my car, cruise control disconnected, and acceleration was severely degraded. Sudden changes in throttle caused
96 Post contains links and images NAV20 : Short article in English here, Sniffmom, Trystero. "The aircraft climbed 300ft in an unsuccessful attempt to clear the icing, then encountered turbul
97 Post contains links NAV20 : Some more 'hard news' - the US NTSB looks like 'weighing in.' (Excerpts - link to full WSJ article below) "U.S. air-crash investigators said they are
98 Post contains links Zeke : And what does this have to do with AF447, NOTHING. More pointless wild speculation. If someone sees a person 5'8", 175 lb was involved in the crime,
99 ULMFlyer : Thanks for the video, Zeke. I'd seen these TAP training videos before, but never occurred to me to go back to them. A little OT, but I've always wond
100 Gonzalo : Some of the 330 drivers correct me if I'm wrong, but my understanding is that the ACARS are codified automatic messages directly related with the ECA
101 Zeke : Actually more B/S. The NTSB is not investigating AF447, they will not be involved in the AF447 investigation only as THE STATE OF ENGINE MANUFACTURE
102 Post contains links NAV20 : Zeke, if you read the WSJ story, you'll find that the NTSB is referring not to AF447 but to one flight that originated in the USA and one involving a
103 Zeke : I did indeed, that is what I said "You persist in trying to encapsulate every single event that happens on an Airbus as being relevant to this accide
104 Post contains links NAV20 : Zeke, hope this (June 4th.) press report makes the NTSB's current role clear:- "Assistance Requested By The French Government - The National Transport
105 Meristem : I checked the French version as well as English and Portuguese (fluent in 2 of the 3, did grad-level work on the third lang in which I do not conside
106 Post contains links GBan : http://www.spiegel.de/panorama/0,1518,632537,00.html The text is neutral (a member of the cabin team), the title mentions Flugbegleiter, which points
107 Post contains links StasisLAX : Search crews in the mid-Atlantic have retrieved the bodies of the chief pilot of Flight 447 and a flight attendant, Air France said Thursday. The two
108 Pihero : Excerpt which just proves that even Flight or Kieran, whom we cannot suspect of any anti=A bias can be guilty of bad reporting : This is the French t
109 FCA767 : I understand your connection too...I travelled on the A340 sister over the atlantic from st martin 1 month before...so the cabin is still printed in
110 Trystero : Although English is easyer for me, il ya dans le français quelque chose de sensuel... Merci Nav20.
111 ComeAndGo : Right, and now think it breaks into several sections and what is sitting in between those sections spills into the sea. Like all that stuff found aro
112 Movingtin : You need to relax, How can you possibly make that statement? So, The safety board of the country that made the engines, majority of the LRU'S, and ha
113 FCA767 : They found the crew rest station early on
114 Post contains images NAV20 : Steady, Pihero  . My French was never good, and it's pretty rusty now. But, as I read the Safety Officer's memo, and summarising to reduce typing ti
115 Pihero : Nothing to do with you ( for once ). It was about the First paragraph of Kieran's text, which is, to say the least largely - and wrongly -very interp
116 Post contains links Khobar : I got the impression the captain in question was from the flight deck. For an idea of how violent an impact can be, see: http://www.youtube.com/watch
117 Post contains images NAV20 : Truly GREAT, Pihero - maybe we get closer to understanding each other.   I'm not concerned that a journalist gets the odd detail, or inference, wron
118 Spacecadet : "Survivable" is a technical term that's open to interpretation when it's used to discuss accident severity... there have been people who have survive
119 Zeke : I used the following analogy above, if someone describes a person as 5'8", 175 lb was involved in the crime and they left their fingerprints behind,
120 Post contains links Zkpilot : I apologize if someone has posted this already (simply too many posts to read through!) Just received this email about another A330 incident that soun
121 NAV20 : Just for the record, I believe that that IS wrong. I read somewhere that apparently the French Embassy nominated four people to attend the autopsies,
122 Giopan1975 : Zeke's decision NOT to speculate AT ALL is totally respected, as well as his tolerance to many of us (including myself), who are ignorant of most tec
123 NAV20 : Good question, Giopan1975. Must confess that I have no answer. I personally count Air France as one of the 'Top Ten' most distinguished airlines in t
124 Post contains links Jano : Would it be this Northwest flight? http://news.airwise.com/story/view/1246011377.html "The National Transportation Safety Board, which is helping Fre
125 NAV20 : Just meant for fun, Zeke, and trying to lighten the atmosphere, but you've got that plain wrong. I'm two inches taller than that, and 10lbs. lighter.
126 Khobar : Survivable is actually something quantifiable - a person walking away may be a layman's indicator that the accident was survivable, but the NTSB cate
127 Zkpilot : Yes Northwest.
128 Gonzalo : Many thanks for the correction Zeke. Have to confess that at the first moment I was a little amazed for the Captain's body being found ( one tend to
129 NAV20 : Perhaps not even 'maybe,' Gonzalo........... There were three pilots aboard. Only two of the three are likely to have been on the flightdeck at any o
130 757GB : Hi Gonzalo, Can't find the link right now, but I read somewhere that the boxes from the Korean Air shot down by the Soviets way back when kept transm
131 Mandala499 : Am puzzled by the same thing... is there an airspeed fault monitoring function with the ISIS? Sorry, am not too familiar with the ISIS. Geez... what
132 Khobar : An APB does not include finger print information but does include a general or specific description of the suspect. The police will look for anyone 5
133 Giopan1975 : Yes, but same checklists, same course of action out of it in both cases?
134 Mandala499 : OK, a few A330s and 340s have reported being robbed by an masked robber... So far it is believed that this is a serial robber... AF447 got hit by a r
135 2175301 : I tend to agree with Zeke and others on restricting the speculation; the difference between us is that I am willing to speculate to the extent of list
136 Allegro : Have not seen this yet ... What percentage of the total airframe has been recovered? I estimate it at 5%. Are they re-building what they have ala TWA
137 FCA767 : ah ok thanks guys
138 Khobar : I agree. The point being that some here have already gotten a conviction and are arguing it's impossible someone (something) else was responsible - a
139 JettaKnight : I'm amazed that any of you think that you can draw meaningful conclusions regarding the crash based upon information of where individual bodies were
140 Slinky09 : Yes. If you were a sensible police offcer you might reach the same conclusions - similar crimes are not committed by the same person, until you have
141 Post contains links Weizenjaeger : quoting JettaKnight,reply=139, quoting Khobar try http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mPdWbtVRMO0 and http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIiwJhVVGAk Had to tri
142 Movingtin : here is what I typed, please tell me where I used the word " Right"? YOU dismissed the NTSB remarks as irrelevent, which is an incorrect statement, T
143 Giopan1975 : This is a great way to demonstrate things in a much simpler way! Thanks! I appreciate that whatever conclusion you and Pihero are approaching, it is
144 Movingtin : No.
145 Nwafflyer : OK, what do we know now definitely - the aircraft flew into turbulent weather - there may have been flight control problems, we do not know that for s
146 Khobar : A Canadian car - Chrysler 300M. So how does the aircraft handle in extreme weather with its systems reverting to various laws? Does a skillful pilot
147 Fsnuffer : I did not have time to go through all 19 parts but have been following these threads and have not seen this brought up. I wonder what impact this migh
148 NAV20 : Yeah, not the ideal analogy, Mandala499. In a car you're only working in two dimensions, and by definition you can see where it's pointing and see an
149 Pihero : Watch it again. It came only after the crew had started the ECAM procedure, the first item being "Captain Switching", meaning that he had selected AD
150 Pihero : No, thrust is locked to the value it had at the time of disconnection. To unlock it, just move it out of the CL detent it was in. You then command th
151 Post contains links NAV20 : I hope I'm 'deducing' rather than 'assuming,' Pihero. And I'm not blaming the engineers (or anyone else). I think we're in 'uncharted territory.' Don
152 Khobar : Okay, thanks. That's what I thought. Even in heavy weather? Okay. You mean a single, full deflection like the 737 deflections? I wonder - if the rudd
153 Pihero : Yeah ? Haven't you noticed that most of these sources originate from aviation sites? On this article, the assumption of a jet upset in heavy turbulen
154 NAV20 : Always possible, Pihero. But, on the other hand, there's a technique in PR known as 'information management.' It basically consists of 'trailing your
155 GBan : You mean the investigating authorities are doing PR and writing their reports to get a specific press reaction??? Am I missing something?[Edited 2009
156 Pihero : Could be, but as far as the press is concerned, I do not believe in coincidences. That's the gist of the Pruners'majority of posts for the past five
157 Abba : A question from a complete ignorant in this area: Will you not have an indication of ground speed from the navigation device? +/- the highest likely/
158 Mandala499 : Yes... we'll continue to build the case based on the scant evidence... but, until we obtain conclusive data that the suspect did the killing, we can'
159 Post contains images NAV20 : Nothing at all wrong with that, GBan. Best description of PR I ever heard was, 'telling the truth in the best light.' In practical terms the investig
160 Alhena : Well that's a rather vague statement "most in some state", you could as well make it ALL in some state, which doesn't say anything about each individ
161 757GB : Thank you for the information NAV20. Whether there is actually information coming out of the investigation ("trailing their coats" or otherwise) or t
162 Post contains links Sniffmom : If BEA really uses those PR techniques or not, I guess we'll be finding out shortly: "In the context of the publication of an initial factual report
163 ComeAndGo : Well actually no. From what has been published so far we know that the galley, which is a delicate piece of construction, was found in one piece and
164 NAV20 : Interesting point, Sniffmom. Sure, there are other possible scenarios. For a start, the chief investigator, Aslanian, is the guy who reckoned for mon
165 Giopan1975 : I find it difficult to consider Mr. Ice, Mr. Turbulence or Mr. CB as contributing factors to an air crash. Human has to cheat nature in order to fly
166 LTBEWR : Could the cause of AF449's loss be as basic as it lost lift due to the wind and air patterns in a stormy area of sky and went into a non-recoverable s
167 Exsr : Has it already been said? : Brasilian authorities stopped searching for debris and victims today. They only continue locating the FDR/CVR. (German pre
168 Movingtin : I totally disagree, the galley is a flimsy lightweight structure, which would have had heavy carts latched to it. if the fuselage where it was attach
169 Movingtin : Which Airline is that, certainly not as an industry over the long term.
170 NAV20 : Looks like just plain common sense to me, Exsr. Bodies don't float at first, or even at all - and even then, they don't float for ever.... I'm a bit
171 Giopan1975 : I can't believe that a crew consisting of any two out of three experienced captains would not be able to deal with reasonable turbulence flying in Di
172 UA772IAD : It is my understanding that generally, pilots do not make any inputs to the rudder at all once airborne. Is this correct? I'm not sure I understand h
173 Post contains links and images Mandala499 : It's just an analogy... We're not trying to find who/what's to blame with the analogy... as you said, can't blame the sky or nature... BUT, it's just
174 Khobar : Unless the ADRs indicated a low-speed condition prior to fault due to the issue with the pitot tubes? Since the rudder was intact, I'm only intereste
175 Post contains links UA772IAD : I do remember reading speculation in regard to this accident back in the thread discussing the tailfin's discovery and condition. However, I haven't
176 Mandala499 : Doesn't this require 1 ADR to be rejected/switched off and the 2 remaining disagrees? There is an ADR monitoring function... Airbus have added functi
177 NAV20 : UA772IAD, all airliners have a rudder travel limiter which reduces the angle to which the rudder can be turned in steps as speed increases. I don't k
178 UA772IAD : Indeed, just as bank angle, pitch, trim and movements have limits based on IAS, within their flight envelops- Normal and Alternate law for Airbus and
179 Post contains images Mandala499 : Yes... your understanding is correct... that is until you believe the following: I believe the above is incorrect and misleading. See below for expla
180 NAV20 : Steady, please, Mandala499 - there's no agenda. Exactly the same thing could have happened to any make of airliner, if the pitot tubes acted up. Once
181 UA772IAD : Thank you for the very thorough explanation! I don't (normally) believe in serendipity, and I'm not sure of where the Air Caribes incident occurred,
182 NAV20 : I'm sure that they were, UA772IAD - there were actually two incidents with different A330s on consecutive days. As far as I know, AC only have the tw
183 Astuteman : Do you know, I've completely lost count of the number of times that you have been told, by the people who fly these things, that this statement of yo
184 Alhena : No they wouldn't. The limit would have been frozen at last value as has been pointed out over and over.
185 NAV20 : Fine, Alhena. What was the 'last value', then?
186 XT6Wagon : You claim this, but you have no proof that the measured airspeed decay wasn't slow enough to cause the rudder limiter to be fixed at a value capible
187 Breiz : Not saying it but strongly implying it! Haven't you read the report about this particular accident? If you had you would not bring this up, unless...
188 Post contains links and images Mandala499 : I believed you the previous time you said that, the last reply was to remind you not to sound like you have one... but then, writing the following: A
189 Giopan1975 : I wasn't thinking of anything severe regarding weather that this article suggests could have given the airplane the last shot. You and Pihero have de
190 Mandala499 : Ah, OK... U're asking about the risk of distraction of turbulence after 0210... Ideally, one should fly the plane, the other handles the ECAM & troub
191 NAV20 : Gosh, mate - just can't fathom what we're arguing about..... I said that, depending on the TAT that was being reported (maybe as low as 83 knots), th
192 UA772IAD : Not really, since I began by stating that I don't believe there is a relationship, just an intersting observation, with the reasoning most likely bei
193 JONukl : Part of my life I have worked on computers, teached programming, developed real-time systems - some probably more complex than the current FBW:s - wi
194 Weizenjaeger : That must be three, separate rolling averages, not the average of the three ADM's.
195 Post contains links NAV20 : Some information here about the June 23rd. Northwest A330 incident that the NTSB is investigating. According to one of the pilots, the ASIs (and, appa
196 PlanesNTrains : That is my biggest frustration with reading NAV20's posts. They seem to be a web of ideas rather than a cohesive A to Z line of logic. The technical
197 Spacecadet : This sounds a little too close to the "air pocket" phenomenon that so many people seem convinced is the cause of turbulence... The only thing that co
198 Zeke : The air data units, flight control computers, fight envelope computers cross check each others values from mean values many many times a second, basi
199 GBan : Unfortunately I have to agree. I mostly participate as a reader; thanks to Pihero, Mandela and others there is an awful lot to be learned in this thr
200 JONukl : According to the reports from a few incidents that I have read, the digital signals from the ADM:s are NOT "rolling" averages but momentary digital v
201 Pihero : After a lot of research through dozens - if not hundreds of pages - from the A330 manuals, coming from different sources, Mandala 499 and I have manag
202 NA : Pihero, impressive work, very interesting, even if I dont understand some of the "pilot speak". Did you contact the French investigating team? Bet the
203 Pihero : Yes. It goes off and you have the warning at the same time. One reason is that the "WRN" - warning messages come from the FWC flight warning computer
204 NA : I would guess that the condition of the bodies found should reveal at least to some extent if the A330 disintegrated in the air or crashed into the s
205 Pihero : Yes, that is so. A free-falling body would present what is generally called "flailing injuries" or sometimes just "flail injuries". Look it up on wik
206 NA : Pihero, thanks very much for your answer. From what you report, your conclusions sound logical. Havent heard anything about the conditions of the bodi
207 Pihero : That's what I think. We'll see on Thursday There are a few pieces that could indicate an in-flight break -up ; primarily the #1 left spoiler. I don't
208 Weizenjaeger : Do you still have the URL? I am curious! If all three were averaged, and if one completely failed (read zero?), then all three would be faulted. That
209 Pihero : Sorry, Nav20. You know very well that I never use non-aviation sources. The wsj is not one of them and their theories are picked straight from very su
210 Pihero : In technical terms,, the "ALTERNATE LAW, PROTECTIONS LOST" was locked as the fault detection was in the PRIMs. Their reset won't bring "NORMAL LAW" b
211 Post contains images Mandala499 : In the discussions I've had with Pihero and several other parties, it did appear that the ACARS decode done by the Eurocockpit is definitely not in or
212 Tietkej : Very impressive work, Pihero and Mandala. Thanks for making this available to us here in this thread. It creates incredible insight into the chain of
213 David L : ... and the "several other parties", of course, whoever they might be.
214 Comorin : Truly awesome work by Mandala and Pihero; you've been most patient and generous with your time. Question: As a layman, it seems that the aircraft ente
215 2175301 : I would end it there. It is only a possibility that there was actual instrument problems that initiated the event, and only a possibility that weathe
216 Mandala499 : There is no doubt about that... At least what it can do is narrow down the possibilities a bit... and for the remaining possibilities, provide a basi
217 Mandala499 : I don't havea problem to the possibility of that occuring on AF447, however, I do have a problem with that when it comes to the Air Caraibes incident
218 Osiris30 : I thought (and perhaps incorrectly) that ACARS doesn't guarentee in order deliver of messages. I (again, this is my understanding) that the ACARS sys
219 Giopan1975 : Many thanks to Pihero & Mandala for their efforts, patience and persistant in approaching the answers of this mystery. I am given the impression, alth
220 Baroque : Indeed. This was pointed out and I thought I understood clearly what happened at the time when you (or was it Pihero) posted the diagrams of the syst
221 NAV20 : Not sure I do, Mandala499. Part of the problem, though, is that you obviously read French a lot better than I do. I hadn't seen the Safety Officer's
222 Ogre727 : Is the deadline for the blackbox today?
223 NAV20 : Not quite, Baroque - the RTL progressively reduces the permissible deflection in steps as speed increases. Usually, at full cruise speed, it is reduc
224 Zeke : The AoA is not used in speed calculation, it is used for angle of attack protection. You call stall an aircraft at any speed or in any attitude, that
225 Baroque : Not only you Zeke, and that is what I understand. In case of disagreement, the system locks at the value for the highest speed, meaning the rudder ca
226 Mandala499 : The data output is fed to various systems, the display system does not reject... that's my understanding... the rejections occur in the other systems
227 JONukl : I don't remember the exact URL, but search the net for "AO2008070_interim.pdf" and read what is said on P28/29 about algorithms used by the prims to
228 Pihero : Yes, what we need now is the pilot's view through the interface. Once again, we have to be very careful and in this respect, using the Air Caraibes F
229 NAV20 : Oh dear, Baroque - thanks to Mandala499 and his good French, we know that the Air Caraibes RTL 'froze' at a 10% permissible angle. That's about three
230 2175301 : And that is the problem. That is the difference between a rational person and someone who has to blame "someone" or "something". The fact is - that s
231 Post contains links Mandala499 : Try: http://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/...008/AAIR/pdf/AO2008070_interim.pdf errr... you mean 10° (degrees, not percent)... Well, 350KCAS would li
232 NAV20 : Yes, Mandala499 - just a typo. Never found out how to put in degrees apart from spelling the word out - which key does it? I was just going on what Z
233 Baroque : Which angle is, we are told appropriate to the highest of the speeds indicated to the system. QED?
234 Mandala499 : If cannot put °, then just write degrees or degs... it's less confusing than a %... Without disrespect to Zeke, I'd go along with the manual... I'd
235 Pihero : This is just an illustration of this poster's technique : spread a fallacy again and again, adding each time another fallacy to help his agenda. Here
236 JONukl : This, or similar, statements about "a good ADR" have been made here many times. As an old systems designer I wonder about on what ground the "good" A
237 NAV20 : Just 'dunno,' Baroque. As far as I know, the autothrust will have been told to maintain a given speed - not a speed in knots, but a 'Mach. speed,' ca
238 KGAIflyer : I'll add that discussions such as this held in such a professional manner not only increase the value of membership, but also increase the credibilit
239 Post contains links Weizenjaeger : I visited a UO2 fuel manufacturer in the USA yesterday. I saw green O2 bottles (Air Liquide , I think). I reviewed http://www.atsb.gov.au/publication
240 Pihero : Typical pseudo-technical nonsense : An ASI is an AirSpeed Indicator. Doesn't measure anything in an airliner. A "Mach.speed" isan idiocy as Mach numb
241 Khobar : Wow, that's quite a statement. Based on what?
242 GBan : I think it should be quite evident what Pihero means
243 Khobar : He made a statement that the airspeed was zero kts. He did not indicate what he meant, specifically.
244 Movingtin : Thats is right! In my opinion, The order of the messages, nor the time stamp, carry any significance. only the indivudual messages. There is a Satcom
245 Khobar : Don't bother with it. I thought Boeing 777 had "artificial feel" while Airbus had no feedback (other than the actions of the plane, if you know what
246 David L : No-one is saying that. However, as has happened many times before, this thread has been riddled by assertions that Airbus systems are too complicated
247 Abba : Thanks!
248 Post contains images Khobar : Too complicated to fly? What are you talking about - you just push a button and go. What's so complicated about that?   I think what's far more prev
249 474218 : Thats what I have been told. Take pitch control as an example: Airbus FBW: You pullback on the side stick and there is no deference in the feel, rega
250 JONukl : The following information may perhaps help: Figure 5 in AO2008070_interim.pdf indicates that data from the ADM is also internally sent to the IR part
251 David L : Humour aside, though, there still seem to be many who insist on "guessing" that an Airbus won't let the pilots fly the plane when things go wrong but
252 RFields5421 : No - the MINIMUM specified period is 30 days - past experience shows 45 to 50 days to be a typical duration of a readable signal. After 4 1/2 days of
253 Khobar : Every other word out of Leahy's mouth. I agree - there is definitely a lot of perception out there that the computers control the Airbus and thus don
254 Pihero : Before you make a fool of yourself, give us the quotes where any of thati has been said. Before yoiu make a fool of yourself, go to, for instance, sm
255 Post contains images Mandala499 : Since you wrote "select ALTN Air Data", I have to assume you mean a selection not automatic due to degradation. ALTN here is ALTN Law... there is "no
256 David L : Ah, fair enough. I thought you meant here - that's what I was talking about.
257 Movingtin : See top quote, he opened the door with a Flamebait Post, don't blame others for following up on what was said!! At which time the Crew will select" A
258 Pihero : Tell me something new. In this case, prove him wrong...As a matter of fact, I personally dare you to prove him wrong. Unmtil you do, yoiu - also - do
259 Khobar : And what happens if ALL ADRS are equally affected by erroneous inputs? If they all agree, who/what makes the call? Yup, and if all inputs are affecte
260 UA772IAD : Airbus side sticks have artificial feedback built in for landings so that the flare feels more "normal." However, you are otherwise correct. The 777
261 Mandala499 : That kind of "ALTN"... Oh what was I thinking... *gotta stop banging my head on the table* Think so... It says on the 77 FCTM, yoke on pitch is "pitc
262 BA84 : Boys, let's all go for a beer, and come back tomorrow! BA84
263 FLY744 : I would like to thank Pihero and Mandala499 for an incredibly objective sleuthing job they have done so far. An amazing read over many hundreds of pos
264 Baroque : Well Mandala has given a long explanation in Reply 255 so I will not muddy the waters except I understood from earlier posts that locking at the high
265 Osiris30 : Ladies and Gents; Sorry but I think this is worth repeating since it seems to have becomes lost in a show of pointless bravado and chest beating: PEOP
266 Canoecarrier : Gentleman, I would like to be the first to say that I appreciate the posts of both you. I worked for an airline for many years, and on the GA side fo
267 Post contains links NAV20 : Only a 'leak' so far. But it is in the 'Times':- "Article from: Times Online "AIRBUS is expected to face calls to ground its worldwide fleet of long-r
268 Tietkej : It "is believed" that it may be "likely" that the Times will be "expected" do some more explaining. Hmmmm, doesn't sound too convincing to use their
269 Osiris30 : Why not, 737s were forced to repair broken parts.. and there's only a few thousand of those. Not saying it will happen, but if the safety boards deem
270 NAV20 : Depends on what they actually found, and also on what they actually say, Tietkej. We'll know more tomorrow.
271 Astuteman : Agree. It's such a shame then, that such "credibility" gets immediately destroyed by barrack room lawyers ..... That happened right at the start of t
272 Post contains links Jetfuel : " target=_blank>http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...5.ece If this happens thousands of passengers worldwide will be stranded EDIT - Story also in T
273 Tietkej : Yes, and I will be one of them. Still, I am really not sure how credible that article is. There's too many coulds and woulds in there.
274 Osiris30 : I really wouldn't worry toooo much about a full grounding. If anything it would be a grounding of aircraft with certain make/model/part# pitot tubes
275 GBan : This is not a leak. This is a perfect piece of PR created by the lawyers of the poor victims, for obvious reasons. The article has only one source qu
276 MaxJack : I am not in the aviation industry but in the process industry and can see similarities about control and safety in this two worlds. The standard to fo
277 Post contains images NAV20 : No, Gban - but a 'created' story doesn't fit with normal PR, nor would two reputable newspapers touch it without corroboration of some sort. Plenty o
278 Pihero : To all, I have to apologize for losing my temper. I forgot that there are hundreds of you on this forum who have nothing to do - and should not be inv
279 MaxJack : Just an addition to my last post: Definition: "common cause failure" Failure, which is the result of one or more events, causing failures of two or m
280 Tietkej : Absolutely, NAV20. In saying that, a grounding seems grossly overstated still, imho. The Times would want to capitalise on the fact that they got a g
281 UALWN : New to a type? What makes you think that? The plane was new, the type had been around at UA for 8-9 years.
282 UALWN : Apparently, they, as pilots, did care. Their words, not mine.
283 RFields5421 : It has happened in the past, and it is not realistic to believe it could not happen again. However, no agency or manufacturer has the authority to gr
284 RFields5421 : I am wondering if Thales will survive as a company, or in the aircraft business, after this is all over. I am certain we are going to see a big push b
285 JONukl : The color of oxygen bottles is a stupid point to argue a lot about. I phoned a friend working with service of mass spectrometers and asked him what h
286 Post contains links Kiwiandrew : hours ? I was still fairly young at the time but my recollection is that US registered DC-10s were grounded for nearly 6 weeks . edited to add : acco
287 NAV20 : Minor point, maybe, Mandala499 old friend - but please (you and others) stop quoting me (and others) as if we'd contributed the quotes. Only needs a
288 Post contains links GBan : But how do we know that you are not the author, Charles Bremner? Well, probably not, he apparently lives in Paris Just did a quick search for Bremner
289 Slinky09 : ISTBC but if investigators had reached such a conclusion - why would they risk waiting for a report to be printed / press conference and not already
290 Spacecadet : Yes, the type certificate was suspended. That was unprecedented at the time, I believe, and has only happened once or twice since (I'm thinking Conco
291 JONukl : I mentioned the redundancy used on the Airbus, and the apparent lack of diversification in my Reply 292 on Part 17 of this forum. Probably we have si
292 Post contains links Mandala499 : Just coming back to http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article6612165.ece So, let's see... A man dies in his house and CCTV sees Hanni
293 Weizenjaeger : I do not mean to argue. I mention it as a point of interest. I should have also written how surprised I was to see green because that s not my collec
294 Zeke : We both were. Your original question addressed the failure mode, like the ADR disagree on the Airbus where on the Airbus it is locked at the last kno
295 Giopan1975 : " target=_blank>http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...5.ece I guess it is not uncommon for English and mainly American media to grab every opportuni
296 Post contains links Baroque : Ouch. I was under the distinct impression that just last week the News corp press went to town on the Aus PM over an email that turned out to be a fa
297 Theredbaron : When I see this level of journalism, I am Proud of myself, since I dont read newspapers nor I am suscribed to any. OMG they had to fly manually ... p
298 Post contains images NAV20 : I'll try to keep it short, Baroque mate...   As one who spent six (quite happy and eventful) months as a cadet journalist (before using my fairly-im
299 JONukl : I believe that I am one step further into the handling of an incident/accident than you. Read what MaxJack 283 says about the foolsafe "fall back" sy
300 Post contains links Moderators : Please continue the discussion here: AF A332 Crash (F-GZCP) - Part 20. (by Moderators Jul 1 2009 in Civil Aviation) Per Forum Policy (and much like th
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