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Air China + China Eastern Look At The A380  
User currently offlineFCKC From France, joined Nov 2004, 2348 posts, RR: 4
Posted (5 years 3 months 1 week 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 11129 times:

http://www.atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=17019

Blue sky coming from China for the A380.

Air China and China Eastern have both interest in the A380.Could be one of them the famous Asian airline supposed to sign before yearend ?

Anyway Airbus predict 190 A380s in China in 20 years.

In another way John Leahy expects a first Chinese A350XWB customer very soon.
Who will be the first Chinese airline to sign for A350XWBs ?

53 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineMIgAiR54 From Spain, joined Jun 2007, 1750 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (5 years 3 months 1 week 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 10978 times:



Quoting FCKC (Thread starter):
Air China and China Eastern have both interest in the A380.Could be one of them the famous Asian airline supposed to sign before yearend ?

It must be.

Quoting FCKC (Thread starter):
Anyway Airbus predict 190 A380s in China in 20 years.

They are pretty optimistic, indeed some intrachina and some international routes could justified some A380 but I don´t know 190, anyway airbus has a whole team to do studies so..............you never know.

Air china could replace some B744 with A380 but I´m not sure about China Eastern, I don´t know them very good

Quoting FCKC (Thread starter):
In another way John Leahy expects a first Chinese A350XWB customer very soon.

IMO A350XWB will be a real success in China, some of the A380 airbus expect in my opinion they will be converted into A350-1000.


User currently offline2707200X From United States of America, joined Mar 2009, 8545 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (5 years 3 months 1 week 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 10889 times:

This is a good growth point for the A380 as the Chinese economy is growing and as China Southern already has orders for the A380.


"And all I ask is a tall ship and a star to steer her by." John Masefield Sea-Fever
User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (5 years 3 months 1 week 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 10774 times:

Air China and Cathay Pacific are more a question of "when" IMO. Hadn't heard before China Eastern is interested too. Although in Shanghai the sky is the limit. Great place / mega city...

User currently offlineCerecl From Australia, joined Jul 2008, 734 posts, RR: 0
Reply 4, posted (5 years 3 months 1 week 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 10720 times:



Quoting MIgAiR54 (Reply 1):
ndeed some intrachina

Sorry, but I don't see this. PEK-PVG is the probably the only route that will justify A380, but this route is served by A320/737, lots of them  Smile . In the future a high speed rail will probably be the main mode of traffic.

Quoting MIgAiR54 (Reply 1):
I´m not sure about China Eastern

MU is in the process of merging with Shanghai Airline. IMHO MU is not serious about A380, their largest aircraft is A346.

I agree that CA will eventually order some A380 though.


User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31062 posts, RR: 87
Reply 5, posted (5 years 3 months 1 week 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 10719 times:
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There is no way we'll see domestic services in China or India with the A380.

As a "gateway to gateway" plane, yes.


User currently offlineJfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8391 posts, RR: 7
Reply 6, posted (5 years 3 months 1 week 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 10720 times:
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Quoting Cerecl (Reply 4):
Sorry, but I don't see this. PEK-PVG is the probably the only route that will justify A380, but this route is served by A320/737, lots of them . In the future a high speed rail will probably be the main mode of traffic.

Its to fly the A380 to Europe and North America.


User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11656 posts, RR: 60
Reply 7, posted (5 years 3 months 1 week 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 10719 times:



Quoting Stitch (Reply 5):
There is no way we'll see domestic services in China or India with the A380.

I'm pretty sure you will in China; CA operate all of their fleet on the PEK-PVG runs - from 737s to 340s, they use the lot. Should they order the A380, then no doubt they will operate it as such between this and other similar city pairs which currently see wide-bodied services, especially as the middle class grows - with well over a billion people, you only need it to comprise of a small percentage of the population.



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlineCerecl From Australia, joined Jul 2008, 734 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (5 years 3 months 1 week 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 10719 times:



Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 6):
Its to fly the A380 to Europe and North America

I did quote the "intrachina" bit and I was talking about PVG-PEK...

Quoting PlymSpotter (Reply 7):
he middle class grows

Chinese middle class still prefers rail to air by a large margin. I agree with Stitch here. Plus with the current and future high speed rail (current ~150kph, future >300 kph) there is even less going for air travel within China.


User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11656 posts, RR: 60
Reply 9, posted (5 years 3 months 1 week 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 10719 times:



Quoting Cerecl (Reply 8):
Chinese middle class still prefers rail to air by a large margin.

This is though largely due a lack of choice because of the price - the trains, even in First Class, are vastly cheaper than flying. From my experience they're not as comfortable though, especially when it comes to sleepers, even in the best cabin you can get.



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31062 posts, RR: 87
Reply 10, posted (5 years 3 months 1 week 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 10721 times:
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Okay, they might do PEK-PVG as a tag on an international leg: so PEK-PVG-(International Destination).

But daily scheduled back-and-forth A380 services between PEK and PVG? I doubt it. I don't expect any of their 747-400s do this as a daily shuttle service.

The A380 airframe is way overbuilt for such a mission and Airbus has never shown interest in the pass about building a "domestic" model of their planes.


User currently offlinePlymSpotter From Spain, joined Jun 2004, 11656 posts, RR: 60
Reply 11, posted (5 years 3 months 1 week 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 10722 times:



Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
I don't expect any of their 747-400s do this as a daily shuttle service.

Certainly a couple of years ago there were at least two 74M rotations each way, I believe they were then shifted onto international routes because of the ability to haul profitable international cargo, but the A343s and 777s still ply the route. I'd hoped to fly it as there was hardly a narrowbody to be seen in the schedules and, although there are now additional narrowbody services, it seems the same number of wide-bodied aircraft fly the route daily.



...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
User currently onlineAsiaflyer From Singapore, joined May 2007, 1138 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (5 years 3 months 1 week 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 10719 times:



Quoting Cerecl (Reply 4):
Sorry, but I don't see this. PEK-PVG is the probably the only route that will justify A380, but this route is served by A320/737, lots of them

Air China operates all typ of widebodies between PEK and SHA (Shanghai Hongqiao).

Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
But daily scheduled back-and-forth A380 services between PEK and PVG? I doubt it. I don't expect any of their 747-400s do this as a daily shuttle service.

In fact there are up to 3 daliy 747 services between PEK and SHA.
Although I doubt that CA will use A380 to do that route.



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User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31062 posts, RR: 87
Reply 13, posted (5 years 3 months 1 week 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 10720 times:
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Quoting Asiaflyer (Reply 12):
In fact there are up to 3 daliy 747 services between PEK and SHA.

Yes, but are we talking "single daily" or "every hour on the hour" daily?


User currently offlinePVGAMS From China, joined Apr 2009, 55 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (5 years 3 months 1 week 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 10719 times:



Quoting Asiaflyer (Reply 12):
Air China operates all typ of widebodies between PEK and SHA (Shanghai Hongqiao).

As does MU (A330s)


User currently offlineTrex8 From United States of America, joined Nov 2002, 4774 posts, RR: 14
Reply 15, posted (5 years 3 months 1 week 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 10722 times:
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Quoting Keesje (Reply 3):
Hadn't heard before China Eastern is interested too. Although in Shanghai the sky is the limit. Great place / mega city...

they had better start making money after their merger with Shanghai before investing in A380s

Quoting Stitch (Reply 5):
There is no way we'll see domestic services in China or India with the A380.

does TPE-PVG count as domestic?? Big grin


User currently offlineB2443 From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 703 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (5 years 3 months 1 week 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 10423 times:



Quoting Trex8 (Reply 15):
does TPE-PVG count as domestic??

It's certainly NOT international, agreed by both sides.


User currently offlineRyanair!!! From Australia, joined Mar 2002, 4755 posts, RR: 26
Reply 17, posted (5 years 3 months 1 week 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 10400 times:



Quoting Stitch (Reply 5):
There is no way we'll see domestic services in China or India with the A380.



Quoting Asiaflyer (Reply 12):
Although I doubt that CA will use A380 to do that route.

I will not be so quick to count the A380 out. As the years go by, we have seen how the traffic volume have increased almost exponentially between several key cities. It all started with the Tridents which progressed to 737 classics to what we have today. Perhaps it is still considered an international tag-on but you cannot discount the domestic leg, it is still one. Not to mention between PVG and HKG, the 2 financial powerhouse and the sheer amount of traffic that flows on this route alone.

After adding up all the numbers, the A380 will not be too far a stretch to imagine. Air China is a most definite bet. However China Eastern is still rather dodgy to me and unless they keep themselves in shape, the A346 will be the largest plane they will ever own.



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User currently offlineGabrielchew From United Kingdom, joined Aug 2005, 3285 posts, RR: 12
Reply 18, posted (5 years 3 months 1 week 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 10359 times:

Having flown between PEK and SHA/PVG some fifteen times, on three airlines on A330, A340, B767, B777, B744, B74C, just one of those flights has been full. I think A380 will definately be overload on the route currently. Also, depsite the huge number of people in the country, and the large number of routes crisscrossing, the vast majority of flights are still operated by the A320/B737 (even on the major routes like PEK-SHA, SHA-SZX) - quite a big gap to the A380. Some large, prosperous cities such as Nanjing (NKG) and Hangzhou (HGH) see barely anything BUT the A320/B737. Maybe give it 10 years. I think the Chinese are more interested in putting a Maglev into service between Beijing and Shanghai before having hourly A380s.


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User currently offlineCerecl From Australia, joined Jul 2008, 734 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (5 years 3 months 1 week 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 10144 times:



Quoting Asiaflyer (Reply 12):
Air China operates all typ of widebodies between PEK and SHA (Shanghai Hongqiao)



Quoting Gabrielchew (Reply 18):
Having flown between PEK and SHA/PVG some fifteen times, on three airlines on A330, A340, B767, B777, B744, B74C, just one of those flights has been full.

Thanks I did not know that.

Quoting Gabrielchew (Reply 18):
Maybe give it 10 years. I think the Chinese are more interested in putting a Maglev into service between Beijing and Shanghai before having hourly A380s.

 checkmark  My thought exactly.


User currently offlineAstuteman From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 10075 posts, RR: 97
Reply 20, posted (5 years 3 months 1 week 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 10075 times:
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Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
The A380 airframe is way overbuilt for such a mission and Airbus has never shown interest in the pass about building a "domestic" model of their planes.

Indeed.
One might argue that in -800 guise, the frame is overbuilt even for the long-haul missions..  Smile

The A380's strength is unquestionably long-haul IMO.
I don't know the market, but would speculate that "intrachina" operations would only happen as a "tag" on a long-haul, or as a filler between long-hauls...

Rgds


User currently offlineCoolfish1103 From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 404 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (5 years 3 months 1 week 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 9968 times:

Well, the governments don't agree that TPE-PVG v.v. is an international (or domestic) flight, but it's working as an international flight just like HKG and MFM is these days because you definitely have to go through immigration... and customs!

I am sure you will see A380-800 on mission in TPE-PVG v.v. given the current slot restrictions that the Chinese government has imposed. Almost all airlines that serve this route will use their largest aircraft available if they can. Once the restriction is lifted, then maybe not as always.


User currently offlineWarren747sp From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 1167 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (5 years 3 months 1 week 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 9735 times:

Both of the above airlines can barely fill their existing wide bodies due to poor service on international route. I think that they are just dreaming by getting new planes it will change. Mu looks like the likely candidate because they new general manger is from CI and he can't wait to order airbuses.


747SP
User currently offlineKeesje From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (5 years 3 months 1 week 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 9603 times:

Domestic ? nah.

Beeing / Shanghai to LHR, CDG, FRA, AMS, LAX, SFO, ORD, HKG, JFK, SIN, SYD and other big places seems more likely IMO.


User currently offlineMIgAiR54 From Spain, joined Jun 2007, 1750 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (5 years 3 months 1 week 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 9543 times:

TPE-HKG
TPE-PEK
TPE-PVG
HKG-PEK
HKG-PVG
PVG-PEK

I think all this routes could be flown by A380, and also some "regional routes"

PEK-TOKYO
PVG-TOKYO
HKG-TOKYO
HKG-SIN
PEK-SIN

not only because the pax demand, also because the cargo. Very important part of the business.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 10):
Okay, they might do PEK-PVG as a tag on an international leg: so PEK-PVG-(International Destination).

It is an option. as well to improve fleet utilization, PEK-PVG-SIN-PVG-PEK for instance

Quoting Cerecl (Reply 8):
Chinese middle class still prefers rail to air by a large margin. I agree with Stitch here. Plus with the current and future high speed rail (current ~150kph, future >300 kph) there is even less going for air travel within China.

Still with the high speed train (300kph) PEK-PVG is more than 1.000kms so, almost 4 hours, and usually high speed trains are very expensive, we´ll see, it will be a fare war. Do the govertmnet set up the prices???


25 Directorguy : I don't know why so many people are discounting the use of A380s on at least a few domestic citypairs. China and India are emerging (or emerged) count
26 Cerecl : All routes involving TPE and other Chinese cities are risky. Currently the government of Taiwan are friendly towards the Mainland so there are direct
27 SKAirbus : I'm shocked that people aren't using their common sense here... Let's look at the facts: - China's economy (even in a gloomy economic climate) is gro
28 Cosmofly : They are building a high speed rail from PEK-PVG-CAN. Besides, a 748D carrying 600 people can be very efficient too for such short routes and can be
29 Cerecl : If you were born and bred in China you might not be so shocked. CAN afford to fly does not equal WILL fly. I can afford to buy a BMW, but there is no
30 SpeedyGonzales : China has ordered 100 400m long >1000 seat highspeed trains from Siemens for use on the Beijing-Shanghai line. As much as I like the A380, I don't see
31 MaverickM11 : What on earth is a Chinese carrier going to do with a 380? CZ has them on order and they don't have a single route that needs them, current or future.
32 Stitch : The most logical plan to my mind is to use smaller planes to feed passengers into a handful of major gateways (PVG, PEK and HKG) and then move them i
33 MaverickM11 : Of course, but to where? Chinese carriers can barely maintain daily service to any longhaul destination.
34 B2443 : The "MUCH" cheaper routes by trains are the slower ones. The slowere (with more stops and older cars), the cheaper the price. The prices for overnigh
35 MaverickM11 : The 380 is not a high cycle aircraft like the 744D, and Airbus is certainly not going to build a domestic version when it can barely sell any of the
36 Stitch : That may be the case now, but down the road? Every day more and more Chinese become "upwardly mobile" and they're eventually going to want to see som
37 Post contains links and images Keesje : Well, you might be in for a big surprise here Aviation-Design.Net:Design © JJ GámezTemplate © JJ Gámez
38 Coolfish1103 : CZ can use their 388 to fly PVG-TPE v.v., it should be full if the slot restrictions stay. I don't see any Chinese carriers able to fill their 388 on
39 Jambrain : I know that predictions on growth in China are very unlikely to be correct but 10% compound growth over 10+ years lifts an awful lot of people into m
40 Huaiwei : PVG-SIN has far higher demand than PEK-SIN thou. Agreed. One seems to forget that China is of a physical size which is big enough for air travel to h
41 Cerecl : Are you sure you are not quoting the price during the spring festival chaos? The non-stop "superfast" rail service between PEK and SHA takes 7 hours.
42 Huaiwei : Wait till they get re-elected into parliament. The vast majority of Taiwanese prefer the status quo, and are not pro-independence nor pro-unification
43 Cerecl : Sorry, not to enter into a political argument with you. But DPP governed for 8 years and KMT just got back to power. Very true. Unfortunately, as his
44 Huaiwei : Doesn't dispute with anything I have said. Most Taiwanese people vote one over the other due to policies (and sometimes even personalities of their c
45 Coolfish1103 : Even if DPP regains their power in the parliament, they would not dare to touch air traffic rights to Hong Kong or Macau. Maybe they will make a fuss
46 MD-90 : Isn't China Eastern losing money right now?
47 VirginFlyer : Doubt it - CA, CZ and MU mostly fly A330s here at the moment... V/F
48 Post contains links Trex8 : only a little like about 2billion US$ last year http://www.chinadaily.net/china/2009-04/16/content_7685131.htm
49 Cosmofly : For these short routes, a 748D high density configuration of 600 seats makes more sense. 748 can also carry more cargo for these routes. In the end,
50 Cerecl : agree with the gist of your post, but think the 25% figure is an overestimation. There is no way 350 million people in China are earning 10K/month. I
51 Cosmofly : Except that it only takes 1/10 of China population who are at the GDP top to match that of Japan's population.
52 Cerecl : Sure, but these 10% are spreaded over a much larger area. Undoubtedly there is some concentration near CAN, PEK and PVG/SHA, but there will be some d
53 Coolfish1103 : I don't even know if the 748-I program will launch... let alone having a high density configuration. Well, 388 has to be deployed somewhere for turna
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