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EK Considering Deferral Of B777 Or A380  
User currently offlineAviationbuff From India, joined Mar 2008, 1425 posts, RR: 3
Posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 10375 times:

Emirates considering slowing fleet growth

http://www.centreforaviation.com/new...idering-slowing-fleet-growth/page1

Quote:
Emirates considers slowing some B777 or A380 deliveries in next 18 months, but remains committed to all orders; Not slowing growth, 22 aircraft to be delivered in next 12 months and capacity to expand by 14%; Cash conservation and cost cutting a major focus for Emirates, with cost cuts of 16-20% targets Maintains positive profitability outlook for FY09/10, looking to reinforce markets and add new destinations; Emirates considering slowing fleet growth The global financial crisis and subsequent economic downturn has already put Emirates’ profits into a nosedive, and now its expansion plans may also undergo a pruning, as the carrier faces the prospects of continued poor traffic in markets to the East and West.

This was expected considering how badly Dubai is hit and also that in the next 12 months EK is expected to receive 22 aircraft.



[Edited 2009-06-29 02:48:57]

29 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineMadameConcorde From San Marino, joined Feb 2007, 10898 posts, RR: 37
Reply 1, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 10351 times:

Dubai is badly hit by the economic downturn so this EK deferreing aircraft deliveries is no surprise to me.


There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
User currently offlineSu184 From Egypt, joined Feb 2004, 236 posts, RR: 10
Reply 2, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 10164 times:

I think this is the first time Emirates take a decision to defer deliveries.

User currently offlineAsiaflyer From Singapore, joined May 2007, 1136 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 9996 times:

This was written about in "A380 Production And Delivery Thread #4"

A380 Production And Delivery Thread #4 (by AeroplaneFreak Apr 7 2009 in Civil Aviation)

Reply no 167 says:
"A new article is now indicating that EK will take over only two additional A380s this year => altogether only 3 in 2009.

Source: Interview with Emirates representative for France and Benelux Jean-Luc Grillet, unfortunately only in German. http://www.aero.de/Emirates_verlangs..._Wachstum_der_A380-Flotte_8678.htm

"After receiving their fifth A380 (A6-EDE) in April two additional planes will be taken over at the end of this year."
"2010: 6 A380s"
"2011: 5 A380s"
"2012 and 2013: 12 respective 11 A380s"
"remaining 17 A380s between 2014 and 2016""


It sounds like EK already has agreed with Airbus about this schedule.



SQ,MI,MH,CX,KA,CA,CZ,MU,KE,OZ,QF,NZ,FD,JQ,3K,5J,IT,AI,IC,QR,SK,LF,KL,AF,LH,LX,OS,SR,BA,SN,FR,WF,1I,5T,VZ,VX,AC,NW,UA,US,
User currently offlineNA From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10736 posts, RR: 9
Reply 4, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 9965 times:



Quoting Asiaflyer (Reply 3):
It sounds like EK already has agreed with Airbus about this schedule.

Thats what I´ve read too. Now, lets hear about the 777 deferrals. Lets not forget, many of the A380s ordered will replace 777s and/or free them for other purposes (if they still can be found).


User currently offlineOldAeroGuy From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 3525 posts, RR: 66
Reply 5, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 8784 times:



Quoting NA (Reply 4):
Lets not forget, many of the A380s ordered will replace 777s and/or free them for other purposes (if they still can be found).

From your own thread, any route that has a daily traffic of around 300 pax or has an average passenger load of around 300 pax due to frequency demand is unlikely to see a 777 replaced by an A380. There are likely to be quite a few that fit that category.



Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
User currently offlineLightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13130 posts, RR: 100
Reply 6, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 7804 times:
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Quoting Aviationbuff (Thread starter):
This was expected considering how badly Dubai is hit and also that in the next 12 months EK is expected to receive 22 aircraft.

 checkmark  Said early and well. Dubai must conserve cash. That impacts the ability for EK to borrow for growth.

Quoting Asiaflyer (Reply 3):
It sounds like EK already has agreed with Airbus about this schedule.

Interesting..

Quoting NA (Reply 4):
Lets not forget, many of the A380s ordered will replace 777s and/or free them for other purposes (if they still can be found).

 checkmark  It will be interesting to see how they are utilized.

What I wonder is will EK take this 'opportunity' to rationalize their fleet. I personally believe they have too many different types. The A345 should go first. Since they are not being utilized for ULH, the 77W would be an excellent replacement for most of their routes. If the 77W is too much Gage, then the pending A333's.  spin  (At least on the shorter routes.)

It will be interesting to see how much they can/do differ 77W deliveries.

Quoting Asiaflyer (Reply 3):
"2010: 6 A380s"
"2011: 5 A380s"
"2012 and 2013: 12 respective 11 A380s"
"remaining 17 A380s between 2014 and 2016""

Interesting... this makes the majority (40) of the deliveries the later longer range model of A388's... I believe by 2012, the A388's will have the range for DXB-LAX. The question is, will the demand justify the increase in aircraft size? How is Y yield DXB-LAX?

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineKaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12475 posts, RR: 37
Reply 7, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 7620 times:



Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 6):
If the 77W is too much Gage, then the pending A333's. (At least on the shorter routes.)

Yes, but what is the position with the A330-300s? I had understood that the order was firm, but I was given to understand (in a recent thread) that they still have to be confirmed, which will be worrying for Airbus.


User currently offlineNA From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10736 posts, RR: 9
Reply 8, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 7548 times:



Quoting OldAeroGuy (Reply 5):
Quoting NA (Reply 4):
Lets not forget, many of the A380s ordered will replace 777s and/or free them for other purposes (if they still can be found).

From your own thread, any route that has a daily traffic of around 300 pax or has an average passenger load of around 300 pax due to frequency demand is unlikely to see a 777 replaced by an A380. There are likely to be quite a few that fit that category.

Absolutely. The 250 -300 pax window with one flight a day will be the ideal routes for EK future 77W operations. That will be quite a lot of routes, but if the number justifies to keep all 77Ws removed from future A380 routes PLUS new 77Ws coming in remains to be seen. I have my doubt´s there, unless the 77Ws do replace all the 773"A", 772"A", 772ER and A345s soon.

Above that, meaning any route which generates more than 300 pax a day or that is operated by more than one 77W a day will become A380 territory. With their cash problems the possible gains through flying A380s instead of 77Ws will become even more important in future. The A380 can make cash with a much lower load factor than a 77W.

Btw, I wonder, when the rumoured EK all-Eco A380 is introduced. With this aircraft EK will be able to offer unbeatable killer-prices for tourists and foreign workers. Or even the Hadj.


User currently offline2707200X From United States of America, joined Mar 2009, 8523 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 7275 times:

EK was really thinking a mile a minute and did not have the economic recession in mind when they splurged on the huge orders, now they have to suck up their pride and delay deliveries like every one else.


"And all I ask is a tall ship and a star to steer her by." John Masefield Sea-Fever
User currently offlineKaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12475 posts, RR: 37
Reply 10, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 7211 times:



Quoting NA (Reply 8):
Btw, I wonder, when the rumoured EK all-Eco A380 is introduced. With this aircraft EK will be able to offer unbeatable killer-prices for tourists and foreign workers. Or even the Hadj.

I don't think it was ever intended that it would be ALL-economy; my recollection is that this aircraft would have about 620 seats in a two class layout, for travel to high density regional routes, such as BOM, KHI, perhaps MNL, DAC and BKK as well. I can't recall how many were to be in this layout, but I think that right now, this maybe put off for some time.


User currently offlineYOWza From Canada, joined Jul 2005, 4892 posts, RR: 15
Reply 11, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 7125 times:

Quoting 2707200X (Reply 9):
EK was really thinking a mile a minute and did not have the economic recession in mind when they splurged on the huge orders

Who exactly did plan for a recession? One of the American carriers? I don't understand the tone of your remarks?

Quoting 2707200X (Reply 9):
now they have to suck up their pride and delay deliveries like every one else.

Let this example say to all of you many EK detractors, EK is not a bottomless pit of money funded by the Dubai government. It is under its own pressure to achieve and this clear business dilemma should show you as much. It won't, but it should.

Last but not least, this is being considered it's not a done deal so 2707200X you're going to have to wait a little while before you can revel in somebody else's misery.

YOWza

[Edited 2009-06-29 11:04:36]


12A whenever possible.
User currently offlineXT6Wagon From United States of America, joined Feb 2007, 3409 posts, RR: 4
Reply 12, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 7041 times:



Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 6):
The A345 should go first.

I'm not sure about that. Given the poor resale for the type, can they get enough to justify thier replacement with fairly expensive 777 frames?

Also I'd guess that with thier lower capacity you could slot them into routes that currently just don't have enough demand to fill the larger 777.


User currently offlineLightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13130 posts, RR: 100
Reply 13, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 6877 times:
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Quoting Kaitak (Reply 7):
Yes, but what is the position with the A330-300s? I had understood that the order was firm, but I was given to understand (in a recent thread) that they still have to be confirmed, which will be worrying for Airbus.

 checkmark  EK might have to pull back. Their plan was, via another Dubai entity, to lease out the A332's as the A333's entered the fleet. At this time, the aircraft leasing market does not look to be strong enough to justify the switch over.  Sad I'd like to see EK order the A333's, but in this economy, it might be best to 'hunker down' and conserve cash.

Quoting NA (Reply 8):
I have my doubt´s there, unless the 77Ws do replace all the 773"A", 772"A", 772ER and A345s soon.

I expect the A333 and 77W to eventually replace all of those types and the A343. But last I looked, the 773 leases and A343 leases were until 2014!  wideeyed  So it will be a phased roll out. Yea... I know what I just wrote about the A333. That probably means the 77E will be spared for a few years. But in my opinion, even in this economy, its time to remove the 77A and A345's from the fleet. Actually, because of this economy it is time to consolodate the fleet types. Including having fewer seating variations. EK has too little fleet flexibility to maximize aircraft utilization and minimize CASM. Yes, their CASM is very good. But it could be better. I propose they should have, at most, two seating plans per type: One premium and one two-class. They should also consolodate down to at most five types (e.g., A333, A350, 77W, 77L and A388). Currently they are flying the A332, A343, A345, 77A, 77E, 773, 77L, 77W, and A388. Now how many seating configurations is that? Per wikipedia, I count 18 different seating configurations! I can understand 10, but not 18.

Quoting NA (Reply 8):
Btw, I wonder, when the rumoured EK all-Eco A380 is introduced. With this aircraft EK will be able to offer unbeatable killer-prices for tourists and foreign workers. Or even the Hadj.

As already noted, there will be a small business class section.  spin 

I wonder when its wise to introduce the 2-class A380. In my opinion, EK needs to build up a base of the current long-haul 3 class before introducing a new seating plan A380. In order to increase the utilization rate of the A380's, there probably needs to be 14 or 15 in the fleet before introducing the 2-class A388.


Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineNA From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10736 posts, RR: 9
Reply 14, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 6778 times:



Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 12):
I'm not sure about that. Given the poor resale for the type, can they get enough to justify thier replacement with fairly expensive 777 frames?

Also I'd guess that with thier lower capacity you could slot them into routes that currently just don't have enough demand to fill the larger 777.

 checkmark 
Are the A345s owned by EK or are they leased?

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 13):
They should also consolodate down to at most five types (e.g., A333, A350, 77W, 77L and A388)

Dont you think the A333 is a bit large as the smallest fleet type, even for Emirates? With this exception I would expect that EK´s pax fleet will look that simple after 2015, too.


User currently offlineMogandoCI From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 6409 times:



Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 13):
They should also consolodate down to at most five types (e.g., A333, A350, 77W, 77L and A388). Currently they are flying the A332, A343, A345, 77A, 77E, 773, 77L, 77W, and A388. Now how many seating configurations is that? Per wikipedia, I count 18 different seating configurations! I can understand 10, but not 1

Wait till you see the number of seat counts that "Deltawest" offers. Like 30 or 35?


User currently offlineAirNZ From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 6140 times:



Quoting 2707200X (Reply 9):
EK was really thinking a mile a minute and did not have the economic recession in mind

So, did you it was coming then, and the extent of it?

Quoting 2707200X (Reply 9):
now they have to suck up their pride and delay deliveries like every one else.

Guess you're sore about something...what is it? Ah! but remember, the 'pride' you mention was merely many a.net members fallacies and which, in the rush, you obviously allowed yourself to get sucked into to.


User currently offlineLightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13130 posts, RR: 100
Reply 17, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days ago) and read 5972 times:
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Quoting NA (Reply 14):
Dont you think the A333 is a bit large as the smallest fleet type, even for Emirates?

I've been facinated by EK's all widebody strategy ever since I learned about them (here on a.net!). I believe the A333 would work only due to two mitigating points:

1. Underbelly cargo. EK is trying hard to be the 'go to' airline in the region for cargo (for example, their flower handling facility was a smart investment, in my opinion).

2. Fly Dubai. I believe EK will switch aircraft to more profitable routes and 'abandon' less optimal routes to Fly Dubai. (a la Alexandria)

With those two points in mind, EK would do well enough with the A333 as their 'starter airframe.' I also believe that the A388 will be heavily fed by the A330 fleet. This is going to improve the passenger lift from each spoke (as, for example, more seats open up to LHR). Thus, assuming a transition over four years, EK will naturally grow into the A333s.

I also believe that with a reduced number of seat plans, EK will be able to reduce their cost per flight further by greater fleet utilization. Thus, the A333's, assuming a reduction in seating plans to two, should cost less to fly than the A332s!  wideeyed 

Of course, EK has managed to 'break the rules of thumb' before and do well... So we'll see!  bigthumbsup 

Quoting MogandoCI (Reply 15):
Wait till you see the number of seat counts that "Deltawest" offers. Like 30 or 35?

God lord that is too many! My poor logical mind canot get around such a Pan Am variety!  duck 

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineBlink182 From Azerbaijan, joined Oct 1999, 5482 posts, RR: 15
Reply 18, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 5177 times:

Does EK have any routes that are 1x daily A332(LCA? NCL?) How would those routes perform if they were replaced with an A333? Furthermore, the older 772s and 773s cover higher capacity short-mid range routes.

I'm trying to figure out why EK needs to introduce the A333 into their fleet. I'm under the impression that EK has any A333 need already covered quite well.

Can somebody please explain?

Thanks.

blink



Give me a break, I created this username when I was a kid...
User currently offlineStitch From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 31001 posts, RR: 86
Reply 19, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 5104 times:
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Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 17):
Underbelly cargo. EK is trying hard to be the 'go to' airline in the region for cargo (for example, their flower handling facility was a smart investment, in my opinion).

Well it's hard to beat a 77W in terms of cargo volume or payload.  Wink


User currently offlineLightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 13130 posts, RR: 100
Reply 20, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 5025 times:
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Quoting Stitch (Reply 19):
Well it's hard to beat a 77W in terms of cargo volume or payload.

Touche'  Wink

So its a good thing I was talking about what would be the smallest type in EK's fleet.  spin 

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
User currently offlineRyanairGuru From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 5579 posts, RR: 5
Reply 21, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 3328 times:

Newcastle is currently one 332 a day, and even though I don't know any specific data, given their historical progress in the UK market it's likely to go to a 77W in a couple of years time, followed by twice daily (77W and 332) a couple of years after that.

The 345s are currently leased (through until 2014) and will be the first to go after the 350s arrive (leaving the 777 fleet relatively untouched - unless replaced by newer 777s for the time being).

The only routes the 345s do which a non-URL 777 could do just as well are those to New York and the Australian east coast. BNE and MEL (and soon to be SYD again when they 3 daily) receive 325s and are just out of reach of a 777 from DXB at 15 hours flying time. While EK also fly the 77W to BNE and SYD and the 773 to MEL, these have to stop and refuel at SIN (BNE and MEL) or BKK (SYD).

On that note, it is likely to be on routes such as MEL and LHR where current 773s will be replaced by the newer 77Ws.



Worked Hard, Flew Right
User currently offlineNA From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10736 posts, RR: 9
Reply 22, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 3253 times:



Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 21):
Newcastle is currently one 332 a day, and even though I don't know any specific data, given their historical progress in the UK market it's likely to go to a 77W in a couple of years time, followed by twice daily (77W and 332) a couple of years after that.

Should such route grow that much, a single A380 instead of one 77W plus one A332 would certainly be the better choice, for both the airline (more profit, easier operation) and the passengers (more comfy, more spectacular and more advanced aircraft, lower ticket-price possible).


User currently offlineAviationbuff From India, joined Mar 2008, 1425 posts, RR: 3
Reply 23, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 3179 times:



Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 21):
Newcastle is currently one 332 a day, and even though I don't know any specific data, given their historical progress in the UK market it's likely to go to a 77W in a couple of years time, followed by twice daily (77W and 332) a couple of years after that.

Off the topic but related to EK and Newcastle.....

EK welcomed the 250,000th passenger on its daily service operating between Newcastle and Dubai.

http://middleeastaviation.aero/news/...tes+hits+quarter+million+milestone

Quote:
Peter Roeves, a retired engineer from Sunderland, received the VIP treatment when travelling with his wife Judith, to Dubai and onward to Perth, Australia, to visit his son, daughter-in-law and grand-daughter.

Mr Roeves said: “We travel to Australia regularly to see our family and being able to fly with Emirates directly from the region makes travelling much easier. Before Emirates started services, we had to fly via London and had some awful journeys.”

Emirates’ commenced its service from Newcastle in September 2007. The daily flight has been welcomed by holidaymakers and business travellers alike who are now able to travel directly from the region to Dubai and beyond to a network that spans six continents.

Emirates Manager UK North, Laurie Berryman, said: “A quarter of a million passengers in less than two years is a significant achievement. We are delighted and grateful for the support we have received from passengers and cargo shippers from across the region.”



User currently offlineGkirk From UK - Scotland, joined Jun 2000, 24936 posts, RR: 56
Reply 24, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 3095 times:



Quoting RyanairGuru (Reply 21):
Newcastle is currently one 332 a day, and even though I don't know any specific data, given their historical progress in the UK market it's likely to go to a 77W in a couple of years time, followed by twice daily (77W and 332) a couple of years after that.

Ain't gonna happen. NCL will remain once daily with the 332 for the next few years and then maybe an upgrade to an A333 or B772



When you hear the noise of the Tartan Army Boys, we'll be coming down the road!
25 Lightsaber : Are they leased? I was under the impression they were purchased. I believe it is the 773's whose lease expires in 2014 as well as the A343's. But if
26 Stitch : I believe the A345's are owned. That is why they keep shuffling them around instead of sending them back to the lessor. I still believe the A350-1000X
27 Behramjee : yes EK A 343s are leased but the A 345s are owned. EK indeed has a very good reputation in BOM, HYD and BLR in the "flower cargo trade" market segment
28 PlaneHunter : SQ's CDG operations are not necessarily comparable to any route of any other airline - numerous factors have to be considered. Ikramerica and others
29 Flighty : ?? They're not admitting that their entire plan was excessive. Now they have convenient reasons to exit, or further delay their "plans." Airbus' A380
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