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2009 - A Very Bad Year For Aviation?  
User currently offlineTheSonntag From Germany, joined Jun 2005, 3509 posts, RR: 29
Posted (5 years 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 2973 times:

There is no doubt, flying has become much safer than decades ago.

Nevertheless, I think we have some alarming issues this year. It is not the amount of accidents, but more the following:

1. Accidents involved major carriers. AF, US, Turkish Airlines

2. Modern airplanes: A330, 738, A320 had accidents this year.

3. Several accidents happened in western, "safe" regions in the world.

I know this has just to be bad luck, as the accidents are unrelated, but still, this year has really seen an unfortunate cumulation of accidents for major carriers.

I deliberately excluded the A310 crash today. Anyway, when was the last year where we have seen so many crashes in the western world?

[Edited 2009-06-30 09:10:24]

[Edited 2009-06-30 09:11:08]

8 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineNA From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10638 posts, RR: 9
Reply 1, posted (5 years 3 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 2813 times:



Quoting TheSonntag (Thread starter):
when was the last year where we have seen so many crashes in the western world?

You mean big-scale fatal crashes?

Because if it comes to airframe numbers, in the first 6 months of last year there were more airliners written off (ca. 23, 9 of them inflight "crashes") than 2009 so far (ca. 15 losses, 6 of it inflight "crashes"). Only that last year it was lot of freighters among them. This year its more pax aircraft. In the first half 2007 it was ca. 21 airframe losses, among them 5 inflight crashes (numbers are ca. because there are always a few frames damaged in accidents but not publicly reported as w/o even for years sometimes)
I did not count accidents of small aircraft up to the DC-3 and commuter planes like the Bandeirante.
With the exception of AF447 its like every year, accident numbers are going down.


User currently offlineDAL763ER From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2008, 519 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (5 years 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 2721 times:
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Quoting TheSonntag (Thread starter):
1. Accidents involved major carriers. AF, US, Turkish Airlines

2. Modern airplanes: A330, 738, A320 had accidents this year.

How can you count the US A320 crash? It's not like anyone was at fault - it could've happened to any airline with any airliner...Let's have all the geese in NY in our stomachs, maybe birdstrikes like #1549 won't happen again....

Looking at the airdisaster.com database and see how we are compared to 2007 - 2008 only had about 450 fatalities in commercial air crashes... - it's not a worse year than an other, just that the AF crash happened hence the large number of victims by the half of 2009.

Doesn't actually matter if a crash happens at AF or Adam Air...the fact that people are lost counts - safety standards should more or less be the same...

Is this year a bad year for traveling by train because a train in Italy exploded and the DC subway crashed?? Sure it's not - things, disasters happen, it's normal...



Where aviation is not the side show, it's the main show!!!
User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 24803 posts, RR: 22
Reply 3, posted (5 years 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 2663 times:



Quoting DAL763ER (Reply 2):
Doesn't actually matter if a crash happens at AF or Adam Air...the fact that people are lost counts - safety standards should more or less be the same...

Unfortunately they're not the same in regions like Africa and certain other parts of the world where regulatory oversight is much weaker in most countries and things like ATC are lacking. There isn't even radar coverage over much of the African continent although many widebody and other aircraft pass through those areas every day.


User currently offlineFrmrCAPCADET From United States of America, joined May 2008, 1710 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (5 years 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 2607 times:

And you can add in that BA 777, and didn't the 340 have a writeoff or two. But TBTG (or A and B), no casualties.


Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
User currently offlineAmerican 767 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 3735 posts, RR: 12
Reply 5, posted (5 years 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 2591 times:
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Quoting TheSonntag (Thread starter):
Accidents involved major carriers. AF, US, Turkish Airlines

You forgot Continental.

Quoting TheSonntag (Thread starter):
Modern airplanes: A330, 738, A320 had accidents this year.

And the Bombardier Dash 8-400.

I would classify US and TK as minor incidents, in the TK incident in Amsterdam, most passengers survived. In the US incident over the Hudson River, ALL pax and crew survived.
I would add to that the AA MD-80 that made an emergency landing at JFK after taking off out of LGA.

Ben Soriano



Ben Soriano
User currently offlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 24803 posts, RR: 22
Reply 6, posted (5 years 3 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 2551 times:



Quoting American 767 (Reply 5):
would classify US and TK as minor incidents, in the TK incident in Amsterdam, most passengers survived. In the US incident over the Hudson River, ALL pax and crew survived.

I disagree. Those were major accidents, luckily with few and no fatalities. Any accident resulting in a hull loss is far more than a "minor incident".


User currently offlineTheSonntag From Germany, joined Jun 2005, 3509 posts, RR: 29
Reply 7, posted (5 years 3 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 2529 times:

IMHO a crash with several fatalities is no minor event. And yes, of course it is true that a hull loss with no fatalities does not sound as bad as one with 300 killed, but somehow I really think that in most cases (with the US miracle as exception), luck was sparse this year.

So, I just have the subjective impression this year does not do well.


User currently offlineFlexo From St. Helena, joined Mar 2007, 406 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (5 years 3 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 2470 times:



Quoting American 767 (Reply 5):
would classify US and TK as minor incidents

Wow, I wonder how you'd feel about that if you were on any of those aircraft. "Minor incident" is the understatement of the year!


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