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DL To NRT Overkill?  
User currently offlineCentrair From Japan, joined Jan 2005, 3598 posts, RR: 20
Posted (5 years 12 hours ago) and read 10699 times:

DL now flies to NRT from JFK, ATL, DTW, MSP, SEA, PDX, SLC, SFO, LAX and HNL.

That is more than anyone.
They have reduced many of the frequencies. I think only ATL and HNL see more than one frequency to NRT.

Could we see further reductions or replacements with expansion to other destinations in Asia? Right now the only other non-stop destinations are ATL-PVG, right? Wasn't ICN suspended? They have not launched the NW PEK and PVG routes I believe either.

Could so much traffic into NRT with not as much going on to Asia be overkill? Could it hurt them more than help them?

And what will Asia look like in a few years for DL?

Could we see 777s at DTW and MSP and a 744 moved to say a HKG flight?
How about ICN from DTW? DL or KE?
Could DL take more advantage of the 5th freedom rights to try some more unique destinations that cannot sustain non-stop to the US?


Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
40 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineRunway23 From US Minor Outlying Islands, joined Jan 2005, 2173 posts, RR: 36
Reply 1, posted (5 years 11 hours ago) and read 10592 times:



Quoting Centrair (Thread starter):
They have reduced many of the frequencies. I think only ATL and HNL see more than one frequency to NRT.

NRT-ATL is being reduced to a daily flight this coming fall.

Quoting Centrair (Thread starter):
Right now the only other non-stop destinations are ATL-PVG, right? Wasn't ICN suspended? They have not launched the NW PEK and PVG routes I believe either.

ATL-PVG is being axed in favour of DTW-PVG.


User currently offlineTranspac787 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 3184 posts, RR: 13
Reply 2, posted (5 years 10 hours ago) and read 10538 times:



Quoting Centrair (Thread starter):
Could we see 777s at DTW and MSP

In DTW they already will, on the DTW-PVG flight for the fall/winter schedule.

Quoting Centrair (Thread starter):
and a 744 moved to say a HKG flight?

Do you mean nonstop?? NRT-HKG is already up to a 744 again, if that's what you meant.



A340-500: 4 engines 4 long haul. 777-200LR: 2 engines 4 longer haul
User currently offlineCX288 From Germany, joined Jan 2008, 142 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (5 years 10 hours ago) and read 10531 times:

With DL putting their NW-inherited B-747-200 freighters out of service, I am wondering what they are going to do with all those freed-up slots at NRT. Every time I am there, there are around 3 742 freighters on the ground.

Can those slots be converted into passenger operations, e.g. additional connection flights to Asian destinations -- IIRC NW had unlimited 5th freedom rights our of Japan? Or could they possible be leased out to SkyTeam partners for additional passenger services in a similar manner than DL/KL is subleading LHR slot pairs to DL to start new services into Heathrow.

NRT slots are one of the rarest commodities in the aviation world, and I am sure they will be used by DL even in the deepest of a recession just in order not to loose them. For me hence the question is whether the cargo slots could be converted into slots for passenger flights.


User currently offlineCentrair From Japan, joined Jan 2005, 3598 posts, RR: 20
Reply 4, posted (5 years 9 hours ago) and read 10410 times:



Quoting Transpac787 (Reply 2):
Do you mean nonstop??

Yes I mean non-stop. Though a 777 would be better, I don't think they can afford it.

Quoting CX288 (Reply 3):
could be converted into slots for passenger flights.

I think they can and I think that some have been.

I wonder if they might do something like NRT-FUK-??? to capture the Kyushu region. Since DL doesn't have a domestic partner, they can do some feeding of their own as long the flight goes out to another location. I think it has to go to a US territory though.

What other destinations would they want to use their 5th freedoms to?



Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
User currently offlineItalianFlyer From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 1099 posts, RR: 2
Reply 5, posted (5 years 8 hours ago) and read 10207 times:



Quoting Centrair (Reply 4):
I wonder if they might do something like NRT-FUK-??? to capture the Kyushu region. Since DL doesn't have a domestic partner, they can do some feeding of their own as long the flight goes out to another location. I think it has to go to a US territory though.

What other destinations would they want to use their 5th freedoms to?

IIRC, old NWA did domestic Japanese segments to FUK and OKA from the NRT hub in the late 90s. As far as additional 5th freedom destinations, Saigon/HCMC has to be up there on the list...perhaps Phnom Penh and another shot at Jakarta. Oh course, none of this will be on the radar screen until the global financial situation improves.

I dont think the scope of the NRT operation is overkill at all...it is the logistical crown jewel of the NW network. The only big resistance I see, other than the economy, is unfamiliarity with the Delta brand.


User currently offlineKaiGywer From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 12202 posts, RR: 35
Reply 6, posted (5 years 5 hours ago) and read 9883 times:
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I think NRT-BOM would be an excellent choice. That way there would be RTW service on DL  Smile


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User currently offlineLAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 24707 posts, RR: 46
Reply 7, posted (5 years 4 hours ago) and read 9672 times:

In the long term, Delta has a strategic decision to make, either follow United and others by providing ever more direct nonstop services to points in Asia and demphasize NRT, or continue heavy reliance and continue to make NRT focal point of its Asia flying.

My personal view is that long term with equipment like the 787 more direct nonstops is what the market will want, and NRT will need to shift towards more local O&D flows with reduced flights and certainly gauge of equipment used. (bye-bye 744s)



From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
User currently offlineMalaysia From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 3329 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (5 years 3 hours ago) and read 9241 times:

I miss the CGK one, how about KUL as well? Maybe if DL could get some traffic rights and do a NRT-KUL-CGK and be able to sell tickets between KUL-CGK, that might work to make the route possibly work


There Are Those Who Believe That There May Yet Be Other Airlines Who Even Now Fight To Survive Beyond The Heavens
User currently onlineViscount724 From Switzerland, joined Oct 2006, 24637 posts, RR: 22
Reply 9, posted (5 years 1 hour ago) and read 8391 times:



Quoting ItalianFlyer (Reply 5):
IIRC, old NWA did domestic Japanese segments to FUK and OKA from the NRT hub in the late 90s.

But they couldn't have carried local traffic on domestic sectors.


User currently offlineB6FA4ever From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 816 posts, RR: 11
Reply 10, posted (5 years ago) and read 8381 times:



Quoting ItalianFlyer (Reply 5):
IIRC, old NWA did domestic Japanese segments to FUK and OKA from the NRT hub in the late 90s

the old NWA also had GUM - OKA (Naha, Okinawa). i used to fly on that route quite a bit when my father was stationed in OKA. a B727 was used on that route. though i'm sure it was mainly military connections to connect to HNL and/or onto the mainland.


User currently offlineEMB170 From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 646 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (5 years ago) and read 8069 times:



Quoting ItalianFlyer (Reply 5):
As far as additional 5th freedom destinations, Saigon/HCMC has to be up there on the list...

It actually started this summer, IIRC, on a NW operated Interport 757.

But you're right, KUL, CGK, and possibly even DPS would be nice additions. What about Macau?



Can passenger jets fly as fast as my feet do? Let's find out...
User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17278 posts, RR: 46
Reply 12, posted (4 years 12 months 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 7815 times:



Quoting Centrair (Thread starter):
Could so much traffic into NRT with not as much going on to Asia be overkill? Could it hurt them more than help them?

The NRT hub has never made money for NW. They merge with DL and reduce the onward seats out of NRT while flooding NRT with capacity to North America just as Japan's economy begins an even steeper decline like a sad souffle. The ATL capacity is pulled out almost as quickly as it is added and its clear that PDX among other spokes aren't working. Every year brings at least another nonstop between the US an Asia overflying the NRT hub and chipping away at the traffic they flow through the hub. So I guess the question is what exactly *is* helping DL at NRT?



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineCentrair From Japan, joined Jan 2005, 3598 posts, RR: 20
Reply 13, posted (4 years 12 months 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 6261 times:



Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 12):
So I guess the question is what exactly *is* helping DL at NRT?

Skyteam members?



Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
User currently offlineMaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 17278 posts, RR: 46
Reply 14, posted (4 years 12 months 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 6170 times:



Quoting Centrair (Reply 13):
Skyteam members?

There's a Skyteam hub just to the west of NRT that is much bigger and flows traffic much better than DL at NRT.



E pur si muove -Galileo
User currently offlineTranspac787 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 3184 posts, RR: 13
Reply 15, posted (4 years 12 months 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 5559 times:



Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 12):
The NRT hub has never made money for NW.

Something you tirelessly insist on but can never actually back up with any non-anecdotal evidence.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 12):
Every year brings at least another nonstop between the US an Asia overflying the NRT hub

Like what??

US PHL-PEK
UA SFO-TPE
UA SFO-CAN
DL ATL-PVG
DL ATL-ICN
AA ORD-PEK
NW SEA-PEK

I assume you were referring to those??



A340-500: 4 engines 4 long haul. 777-200LR: 2 engines 4 longer haul
User currently offlineUnited1 From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 5929 posts, RR: 9
Reply 16, posted (4 years 12 months 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 5495 times:



Quoting Transpac787 (Reply 15):
Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 12):
The NRT hub has never made money for NW.

Something you tirelessly insist on but can never actually back up with any non-anecdotal evidence.

The DOT numbers that are posted on here from time to time almost always show a loss for NW in the Pacific region. Some of that is probably due to the way NW accounted for revenue and some of that is believed to be that the NRT hub is not as profitable as overflights would have been.



Semper Fi - PowerPoint makes us stupid.
User currently offlineEXAAUADL From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (4 years 12 months 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 5440 times:



Quoting KaiGywer (Reply 6):
I think NRT-BOM would be an excellent choice. That way there would be RTW service on DL Smile

RTW never made money for UA

Quoting Malaysia (Reply 8):
I miss the CGK one, how about KUL as well?

What years did NW serve CGK and KUL. I seem to remember it was in the 1990s or so.


User currently offlineDeltaCTO From United States of America, joined Mar 2009, 432 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (4 years 12 months 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 5362 times:



Quoting EXAAUADL (Reply 17):
What years did NW serve CGK and KUL. I seem to remember it was in the 1990s or so

http://www.departedflights.com/routemaps6b.html

The April 28, 1985 route map shows KUL-NRT -- but that was gone by January 1987

Interestingly - NW had several MNL routes back in the late 80's


User currently offlineDeltaCTO From United States of America, joined Mar 2009, 432 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (4 years 12 months 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 5335 times:

http://www.airchive.com/airchive.php

NW served both CGK and KUL in 1994
The next map is 2005 - so it's hard to tell exactly how long that service lasted


User currently offlineJfk777 From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 8248 posts, RR: 7
Reply 20, posted (4 years 12 months 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 5290 times:
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Delta's old NW Narita beyond rights aren't worth what they were so a city with good polar position needs to be the Asain gateway. Atlanta is too far south, DTW with its great terminal would be best of the DL hubs for this task. 777LR and 787 are able to reach HKG, Bangkok and Singapore from DTW. Delta could also turn SEA into a mini hub as NW once did. NRT will always be served from ATL, JFK, MSP and DTW by DL. ITS all the west coast cities I worry about, SEA, SFO, LAX and PDX are small markets or face heavy competition from HUB airlines and foreign airlines with muliple frequencies from their home airports in Asia.

User currently offlineFrmrCAPCADET From United States of America, joined May 2008, 1708 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (4 years 12 months 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 5205 times:

NW's Narita hub is awesome, in that the several US cities it serves meet at Narita with excelllent connections (sometimes you don't even have time to grab a bite) to a whole lot of Asian cities. Could Seattle, or a number of those other cities, actually support point non stops to all of those Asian cities?


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User currently offlineFlyASAGuy2005 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 7004 posts, RR: 11
Reply 22, posted (4 years 12 months 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 5147 times:



Quoting ItalianFlyer (Reply 5):
segments to FUK



Quoting Centrair (Reply 4):
might do something like NRT-FUK-???

"FUK" makes me blush every time Big grin

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 12):

In their last web cast, they claimed (I saw that because it's my understanding that they are not to lie to investors  Wink ) that the NRT "hub" is doing quite well. They also specifically mentioned the NW onward OPS and "for the foreseeable future" they don't see a need to drawn down because it's a specific market and one that cannot be done effectively with direct US service. My take on that is NW has been doing it for years and love it and I don't see it changing. Less not forget who's running the show at DL (he also has VERY intimate knowledge of NW).



What gets measured gets done.
User currently offlineCentrair From Japan, joined Jan 2005, 3598 posts, RR: 20
Reply 23, posted (4 years 12 months 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 4712 times:



Quoting FlyASAGuy2005 (Reply 22):
"FUK" makes me blush every time

Then how about IGO-FUK-HVN.

Back on topic...
Could placing small aircraft at NRT for flights to locations that cannot support non-stop and then adding 787 non-stop flights to larger destinations work?

Example:
NRT-HKG A333 to 744
DTW-HKG 787

They are giving a premium non-stop between the US and HKG and a one-stop from all locations. So the capacity can be split and back-tracking can be reduced.

Then there are available routes that currently don't exist but could. Mongolia, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia are all not served but could limitedly and only via NRT.

EX: NRT-ULN say 2x with a 757. Non-stop is not viable but feeding via NRT could be possible as it could get Japanese and North America traffic. (KE operates ICN-ULN 2 or 3 a week)



Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
User currently offlineLightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12779 posts, RR: 100
Reply 24, posted (4 years 12 months 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 4611 times:
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Quoting KaiGywer (Reply 6):
I think NRT-BOM would be an excellent choice. That way there would be RTW service on DL

In general, there is a lack of service to India from NRT. Since AI already serves DEL-NRT, BOM would be an excellent choice. I do wonder if BLR might not also do well.

Lightsaber



Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
25 Centrair : Aren't there limits to the Japan-India agreement regarding who can fly between the two countries and the frequencies?
26 LAXintl : JAL also flies daily to DEL while ANA has 3x to BOM.
27 MaverickM11 : DL/NW couldn't make CAN work--that should give you an idea of the smallest market size they need to start with. The last thing anyone needs, let alon
28 MAH4546 : NRT-SLC/SFO each lose one weekly flights this fall.
29 LAXdude1023 : I think DL is trying to make use of NRT the best they can, but they've had a bit of a reality check with ATL-Asia. ATL-Asia is down to one NRT flight
30 ItalianFlyer : More like the NRT hub has never consistently made money for NW....but what hub has? YOY...the past 15 years have been skewed due to prolonged recessi
31 MaverickM11 : Touché True, but to what benefit? As I've said before the rights themselves may be priceless, but for the amount of money they've lost on them and t
32 OP3000 : I think the number destinations from the USA that feed NRT are a good idea, and will likely maximize that hub's worth like NW never could. However, it
33 OP3000 : Correction on my part. VN signed a letter of intent with Sky earlier this year. Still, MH would give them a lot more points of connection outside of
34 VC10DC10 : Part of me agrees with you: PDX? Seriously. SLC? Give me a break. On the other hand, I believe all Fifth Freedom flights must begin within the United
35 DeltaL1011man : PUS,MNL,GUM,SPN wouldn't work. SGN would have to be from LAX will a pretty good size hub (read UA) and it would still more than likely need to be on
36 Naritaflyer : If NW can't make money at Narita in a protectionist environment is due to their incompetence. The service NW offers out of NRT is so poor that it is
37 DeltaL1011man : I would say the fact they are much smaller than JL and NH doesn't help.
38 MaverickM11 : It's really not so much NW's fault as the general dynamics of a hub. A hub uses connecting traffic to serve the high yield local market, and since NW
39 ItalianFlyer : I totally understand where you are coming from...as far as a consistent revenue contribution to the bottom line...it just not there. But i go back to
40 Malaysia : I remember CGK artwork on the NW World Plane sad that livery is gone plus it had artwork from places it no longer served
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